Friday Discussion Thread

2daBank said:
muts really have the best record in baseball since beginning of june? i knew they have had a few hot stretches but wouldn't have guessed that. combine that with braves awfulness (the way they handed mets game last night was a very mets type thing to do, i thought they switched jerseys!) if senga is ready to go think the line is justified, not saying i like mets, actually think price is pretty fair.
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I read that today as well and was kind of shocked.
 
Inspekdah said:
Nestor the molestor and Bello both stink.

Yanks dying to see a righty pitching, for sure.

Mets abused their inability to hit lefties.
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9.5 with that Yanks lineup is encouraging the over which I liked anyway, Nestor and Bello have both been on a strong regression run
 
Inspekdah said:
Nestor the molestor and Bello both stink.

Yanks dying to see a righty pitching, for sure.

Mets abused their inability to hit lefties.
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i can't help it i like Bello, prob cause i tend to do well with him but i think "stinks" is a overstatement. i'd say incredibly inconsistent! he has the ability to control any lineup on a given day but he also capable of getting blown up by a high school team! lol. i really think he be at least decent tonight, im def playing his over 4.5 k's, if it loses i can live with it as i made this 5.5 at bout same price they have 4.5 as of now.
 
2daBank said:
i can't help it i like Bello, prob cause i tend to do well with him but i think "stinks" is a overstatement. i'd say incredibly inconsistent! he has the ability to control any lineup on a given day but he also capable of getting blown up by a high school team! lol. i really think he be at least decent tonight, im def playing his over 4.5 k's, if it loses i can live with it as i made this 5.5 at bout same price they have 4.5 as of now.
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I'm a WHIP guy and I see 1.65 at home and it makes me gag
 
Inspekdah said:
What are the plays so far @2daBank

Royals 1st 5 RL?
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tigers +1.5 and kc ff -.5 are the 2 i played this morning before going to pick theresa up. im working on rest now, almost positive Bello k's making my card, i know you won't like that, lol.

debating if i still want to play the rays ff tt ov 1.5 since the arozarena trade, as i've mentioned i don't think it will effect rays mentally but Randy was still raking lhp this year so taking him out the middle the order against lodolo does hurt a bit but i loved this play before trade popped up on my screen last night so hard for me to get off it.
 
Inspekdah said:
I'm a WHIP guy and I see 1.65 at home and it makes me gag
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i hear ya. im much more worried bout pitch shapes, velo, potential, not that i dismiss ugly stats but guys like him id go out on a limb and say he gets his averages a lot like i come up with my 180s bowling average, i almost never bowl in the 180s, i either have a 600+ 3 games or 450ish, lol. handicap leagues hate me cause im unbeatable days im on, i hear lot of cussing bout my handicap! lol. well not anymore as pretty much stopped bowling with everything else going on in life but you get the idea!!

far as this play goes on his k's his whip or how well he suppresses runs tonight isn't all that important to cashing this bet. obviously he has to be at least decent enough to stay in the game but sox generally seem ok him allowing some runs as long as he getting outs, they not gonna sacrifice the pen for series unless he just can't get outs, against this lineup i dont see that being a big ask! sure he might allow 3-4-5 runs but long as he pitches 4+ innings im pretty confident 5+ of those outs will come courtesy punch outs.
 
Inspekdah said:
Nestor does seem to pitch well vs. Boston. 3 weeks ago was good, too.
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he another guy i've never had much success capping. i've gotten him few times this season but last few years dude killed me, could never figure out how teams couldn't hit him? gotta have something to do with his funky deliverly cause his pitches are not all that impressive, it's never good when im watching thinking "i could hit that!".
 
i like Singer props and/or cubs ff under but think im content just playing kc ff, feel like i should just add to that play before spreading out since they all pretty much go together. same with kc tt over against hendricks but like me and @KJ talked bout last night i really think kc ff could cash with thrm
only scoring 2 cause i fully expect singer to shut scrubbies struggling offense down.
 
think i did really good buying this older car to get around since the pos i still have another year and half of payments blew up but holy shit i gotta get a newer radio put in this thing. having to listen to local sports radio is gonna make me suicidal! i can't believe anyone listens to this crap if they have another option!! i just listened to a 15 min segment where they wouldn't stop talking bout getting Snell for Dillan Carlson and a throw in prospect!! lmao. same shit every year, then i gotta hear dumb shit fam boys tell me how cards might get judge for 3 guys nobody ever heard of! lo. shit is so crazy, maybe if they traded Carlson 2-2 years ago when he actually had value they coulda got something for him but cards thought so highly of him he was untouchable. now that everyone has seen he so awful he can't even start everyday in this crappy lineup these clowns think he a good trade piece? if giants can't get a better player than that for a pitcher on a sellers market their front office is as bad as cardinals! carlson not getting you clowns even a 4th starter so for live of god please stop telling ppl this nonsense!
 
i remember when cards refused to pit gorman or carlson in a package for soto! lmao. our top notch scouting department and terrible front office strike again! now they dying to move both those losers while any trade value they had left the building as everyone got to see how overrated they both were!!
 
I’m big on cards and over, atlanta and over , KC, Texas, Os F5, reds, dodgers and Yankees and over. Was big on Oakland and over last night, believe angels get some payback tonight

In nc visiting family, good to finally be able to legally wager here
 
PirateAlew said:
I’m big on cards and over, atlanta and over , KC, Texas, Os F5, reds, dodgers and Yankees and over. Was big on Oakland and over last night, believe angels get some payback tonight

In nc visiting family, good to finally be able to legally wager here
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o know cards hit gore not long ago but this lineup is awful vs lhp, i think they struggle to score unless gore just can't find the strike zone. gray got beat up in washington also, realky dont see that happening again. i think runs be tough to come by here but i been wromg before. gl
 
so rays get diaz back leading off tonight, think that mostly offsets arozarena leaving and price dropped so im on it. this it for tonight.

rays ff tt ov 1.5
tigers rl
kc ff rl
bello ov 4.5 k's

tbink i takes bout them all, running errands at moment.
 
2daBank said:
so rays get diaz back leading off tonight, think that mostly offsets arozarena leaving and price dropped so im on it. this it for tonight.

rays ff tt ov 1.5
tigers rl
kc ff rl
bello ov 4.5 k's

tbink i takes bout them all, running errands at moment.
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i was on the fence on the rays/reds over as i had it pegged at 8 runs but now with Moscoso behind home, who is the 3rd most hitter friendly umpire, I could see him squeezing these guys especially Baz. Think this could get to DD again much like oakland game last night.
 
it probably wouldn't have mattered since tigers pitching getting blown up but i didn't see Greene went on il until after i bet tigers., that a big problem for them, not like they have offense to spare and he been their best hitter all year.
 
damn senga has 5k's already, i so wanted to grab his k prop but then i looked at his rehab starts and even the ones he pitched ok he wasn't punching guys out, so he couldn't strike out minor leaguers but he having no problem punching out braves, that says all ya need to know bout atl this year! lol
 
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Inspekdah said:
These NRFI aren’t for me anymore. Just too random.
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the one i brought up and liked hit but once again i didn't play it. i don't have the confidence (odd for me, lol) but i thought nats/cards looked good, was just afraid of gore walls.
 
KJ said:
You mean you didn't have Seattle pegged for batting around the order in the first?
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arozarena didn't even join team yet and already making a impact! i dunno the numbers bet think seattle offense gets a little boost everytime they leave a homestand and get to go to pretty much any other park other than that pitchers wet dream they play in.
 
2daBank said:
arozarena didn't even join team yet and already making a impact! i dunno the numbers bet think seattle offense gets a little boost everytime they leave a homestand and get to go to pretty much any other park other than that pitchers wet dream they play in.
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Yeah love it when they go to Coors. Same with SF usually. Was always the same with SD when they had no offense.
 
so pissed i didn't play semga k's, and it was purely cause i had to peak at his rehab starts while i was sitting in parking lot bout to put bets in, lol. already had him wrote down, was bout to bet it and told myself "i better make sure his rehab starts were ok", not only was his last start terrible he wasn't striking anyone out in minors! that in itself combined with the 5.5 number shoulda told me it was good, i can't stand squares who tell me "don't overthink it" as if thinking a bad thing, guess im this case it was, lol.
 
KJ said:
Yeah love it when they go to Coors. Same with SF usually. Was always the same with SD when they had no offense.
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is pads park still real pitcher friendly? i know they have moved the fences in a few times cause it was so bad at 1st, havnt paid attention more recently.
 
wow.. sonny strikes out side in 1st now looking bad in 2nd. really thought he would shut nats down this time.
 
KJ said:
Yeah love it when they go to Coors. Same with SF usually. Was always the same with SD when they had no offense.
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kirby probably doesn't know wtf going on, more run support than he usually gets in 3-4 starts! lol. the other pitchers watching like "fuck save a few for my start!"...
 
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2daBank said:
is pads park still real pitcher friendly? i know they have moved the fences in a few times cause it was so bad at 1st, havnt paid attention more recently.
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I haven't really paid attention since they got an offense. Location on the Bay is friendly like SF but we've seen more runs scored the last couple years
 
KJ said:
I haven't really paid attention since they got an offense. Location on the Bay is friendly like SF but we've seen more runs scored the last couple years
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think they moved the fence in like 2-3 years in a row!
 
the problem i ran into today with thr NRFI was pretty much all had -130 or more price tag, few were -110-115, not being super confident yet combined with the asking price makes it a tough bet for me. for most part my bets make themselves based on price but i dont know how to price these accurately yet, im not in the business of lying to myself that i can predict 1 mlb outcome i just know playing the plays i make will work out over the season,
 
Inspekdah said:
These NRFI aren’t for me anymore. Just too random.
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the randomness shouldn't be any more a issue than the other plays really. long as you making plays that hit more than price suggest to profit randomness is what ppl that have to win that day worry bout! the issue i see 2 fold for me, 1 and most important im kinda at loss on how to price it to figure out if should be long term winner, it took years to learn my own way of pricing all the other plays we make, this one different tho. 2md and a issue for everyone, i gotta assume we to the point the prices not leaving value for no runs anymore with them apparently being way higher than they were earlier in year, basically we late to the party on this one. might mean there actually value on yes run! or just gotta start looking at them another way, maybe run thru card after they come out and focus on ones that not caring the bigger juice? gotta think the heavy juiced ones are teams the guys killing it been playing all year so not only they now being shaded heavily the law of averages id think starts to come into play. kinda some rambling thoughts as i been thinking bout these a lot while i was bored sitting with theresa at hospital!! lol
 
2daBank said:
the randomness shouldn't be any more a issue than the other plays really. long as you making plays that hit more than price suggest to profit randomness is what ppl that have to win that day worry bout! the issue i see 2 fold for me, 1 and most important im kinda at loss on how to price it to figure out if should be long term winner, it took years to learn my own way of pricing all the other plays we make, this one different tho. 2md and a issue for everyone, i gotta assume we to the point the prices not leaving value for no runs anymore with them apparently being way higher than they were earlier in year, basically we late to the party on this one. might mean there actually value on yes run! or just gotta start looking at them another way, maybe run thru card after they come out and focus on ones that not caring the bigger juice? gotta think the heavy juiced ones are teams the guys killing it been playing all year so not only they now being shaded heavily the law of averages id think starts to come into play. kinda some rambling thoughts as i been thinking bout these a lot while i was bored sitting with theresa at hospital!! lol
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Not to mention as the season wears on and starting arms start seeing higher innings, can make a case that the leadoff guys should see their OPS go up. Given all the nice sized plus numbers on yes to score, it's worth looking into now.
 
cock suckers pulled bello after 5th and only 80 pitches needing 1 k. think i said i'd almost prefer his pitch count got ran up cause it prob mean he got the k'a faster. i can't believe they didn't let him come out for 6th!!!! wtf?? he goes 95-100 pitches without any problem lots of starts, i know he gave up a few runs in 5th but still didn't even cross my mind they would pull him!! maybe if he came out and put few guys on but there was no good reason to yank him other than fucking me over!!
 
now i really hope sox pen loses it, jerkoff managers trying to put their stamp on game by making stupid moves. you have the easiest most do nothing job in the history of jobs, stop trying ti complicate it and stay out the way!!
 
gotta be kidding me. kc gonna be shit on for 5 innings by hendricks. unreal. i swear when i play ff rl shit always happens. guess shoulda played the singer props. unreal. just one stinking run all we needed, this like a flash back of me playing seattle ff rl last few seasons. always ended up 0-0 or 1-1 which how i became so interested in FF unders in seattle
 
this royals cat lofton taking a great at bat but unfortunately he has a bum behind him so won't make a difference before end of 5th. fuck
 
this what happiness wken i treat a play as something more and bet a bit more! like u been saying i gotta treat them as long term investments not a actually thinking i can predict 1 eandom ass mlb outcome where team gets shut out by a gas can! only when hendricks faces cardinals do i actually know what gonna happen! lol
 
2daBank said:
this royals cat lofton taking a great at bat but unfortunately he has a bum behind him so won't make a difference before end of 5th. fuck
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that long at bat lead to couple guys getting on but still need another 2 out hit. be nice to get a break on one to make up for that 5th inning error fest to blow a seattle under last week!
 
BOOm BABY!! wow, i can't believe we caught a break on one! i knew that kid Lofton set the table for a rally even tho he made 2md out, he saw like 13ish pitches before making 2md out, since then 3 straight hits!!
 
2daBank said:
BOOm BABY!! wow, i can't believe we caught a break on one! i knew that kid Lofton set the table for a rally even tho he made 2md out, he saw like 13ish pitches before making 2md out, since then 3 straight hits!!
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Got my over 2.5 too!
 
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