Thursday and Friday NBA

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Figured starting a thread just for thursday thoughts would waste a thread

Philly @ Chicago
Philly is pretty much done for the remainder of the season imo. They got their goal of clinching HCA and followed that up with the blowout loss at Jersey and the close loss at charlotte. Last game of the mini road trip and their remaining schedule is Cleveland, @Toronto, Boston, @ Cleveland. They're not catching Miami for 5th seed and will look to just settle into that 6th. This quote should say it all for the mindset for Philly right now:

"The goal is to get to the playoffs," said guard Andre Miller. "We did that. We want to position ourselves in a good spot, but we want to get there healthy and with everybody on the right track."

Don't think they mind just chillin til the playoffs. On the other side, Detroit dominated yesterday, and now it's Chicago's turn to match it. Chicago has been playing excellently at home: 12-1 SU since the ASB, 10-3 ATS and I still don't think lines have caught up yet. Again, Chicago playing for the 7th seed to avoid cleveland. Have it in: Chicago -6 -102- 5
 
Denver @ LAL
gonna be on Denver at the best line I can find. Denver has been playing amazingly albeit at home, and I know that they do have a great advantage at home being Mile High. I also do know LA has revenge for the 79-90 loss they had. However, this line is ridiculous. My power ratings only have this at -5.5 so I have to jump at the value I see. LA should win to keep pace for HCA, but I don't even think thats a given in this game. I don't think there's a huge difference bw these two teams, definitely not enough to justify this line. LA does have the motivation to win obviously, but Denver should be looking to this game in a big way as well everyone brings their A game for the Lakers. Also, LA goes to Portland the next day, and you got to think they save at least a bit to prepare for that game and get it off their back. Portland has won 8 straight (I believe) over LA in Portland, and I think LA will look to end that 2m. I'm not saying they lookahead to that game, but I think it may make a small difference- possibly 5 less minutes of Kobe, possibly not jumping at loose balls like its a championship game, possibly a flat out lookahead. Kobe hasn't really been playing great team ball while Denver has. Either way, I do not see any reason that Denver doesn't come hard: they have the talent to hang and the motivation to seal the division and beat LA. LA is only 2-5 ATS revenging losses this yr. 1 days rest is the worst for LA with them at 16-26 ATS on one day rest vs 24-12 vs anything else. Likely play this for 3
 
games of interest on Friday. Do not have my power ratings with me, but will try to make assumptions off my head

Miami @ Boston
Like Miami a bit here for a couple reasons. Miami will be coming in off 2 days rest off that OT loss at home making them still need to fight for the 5 seed. If I recall right, Miami is strong ATS off a loss and this one should sting and anger them esp after Wade got teched out. Boston meanwhile is just keeping afloat and should be takin a deep breath off getting away with a W over Jersey. There should be a very real lookahead for Boston for playing at Cleveland as you know they'd love to make the headlines and get into cleveland's heads that they can win there. Now from trying to look at it a bit differently, Boston is either a 2nd/3rd seed and Miami either a 5/6. I got to believe Boston would rather try to slowly work KG into the game with a series vs Philly over a series vs Miami/Detroit. I could be way off and maybe it hasn't even been discussed in Bosotn, but if it has then it should be real. If I'm Boston, I would take 1st rd Philly to let KG get some game practice then fight Orlando without HCA over fighting with Orlando, and still possibly losing and not properly getting KG in form then play Miami/Detroit in what should be at least a real series. Boston can help that scenario happen and wouldn't be too surprised to see them lose
 
finally got some time during openers to possibly hit them

looking at

Charlotte @ OKC
My PR has this as Charlotte -1, but I won't mind laying up to -2 with okc here. Charlotte is done for the season. They got their home court W and their season is essentially over. What do they have to play for? They fought hard and came up short and now will probably show their lack of heart here on out. If I'm wrong and they're not done, then they'll reserve their explosion for 2m at chicago to try to fuck them- just a "I hate u for making the playoffs over me so I'm gonna beat u to show u we shouldve made it and not you" effort. LVSC has this as Charlotte -4 and if thats what BM opens, I'm gonna pound OKC. Why does Charlotte want to win this game? OKC on the other hand is a dangerous young home team playing their final home game of the season. It should be a bit crazy- OKC celebrating their 1st season with oklahoma City and they should see plenty of their future with westbrook, durant, and green. OKC public relations probably gonna tell them to run it up any chance they can to get some more season ticket holders etc.

NJ @ Detroit
easy pickin for me. PR has this Detroit -6, but will not be surprised to see much higher for the situation. say -7.5/8 and I still dont mind layin it. Detroit and chicago need to keep winning to keep pace. Detroit lost their last "must win" last week at NJ in an embarassing way. Do not think they forgot that. NJ having nothing to play for but "pride" deserve a day to bitch and moan and hang their heads after coming up just short on a win over Boston with a lot of revenge. They fell short, and this one spells f-l-a-t. Do not see how detroit doesn't win by 20... No AI has them playin together and playin quality basketball. I am almost certain this will be a big BAR play as it is perfect (assuming they keep this line fair)

Phoenix @ Memphis
Yes, NOW is the time to fade Phoenix. I saw a couple do it at NOLA, but 1) nola has proven time n time again they're not worth betting on 2) nola was off ot on b2b 3) phoenix had a lot of revenge- at least some motivation. despite that, they still barely held on. However, now that they got their W over the team that owns them, now its folding time. They've beaten memphis 10 in a row at least now (covers only goes 10 games back) so what better way to end that here for a Memphis team that is gettin it goin now. My PR has this Phoenix -1.5, but I'd be willing to lay small small chalk with Memphis here for the spot. Phoenix can afford an embarassing effort here as they get memphis in a couple days again at phoenix. Memphis has been playin real well lately covering 6 in a row now. Highly doubt Phoenix brings it, and think Memphis wins this convincingly

If you have "pleasers" available to you and OKC and Memphis open home dogs, a 2 team pleaser there makes a looot of sense.
 
You are getting better or me worse because I like almost all of them. Suns very likely to come out flat after the win vs Hornets.. Nash's best game of the year. gl
 
wow just goes to show what I know about lines Charlotte -3.5 lol

played
Detroit -7
OKC +3.5
Memphis +2.5
-each for 6

also played a fuck around teaser that I like
chicago -1, det -2, memphis 7.5, OKC 8.5- 2 for 6
 
Denver @ LAL
gonna be on Denver at the best line I can find. Denver has been playing amazingly albeit at home, and I know that they do have a great advantage at home being Mile High. I also do know LA has revenge for the 79-90 loss they had. However, this line is ridiculous. My power ratings only have this at -5.5 so I have to jump at the value I see. LA should win to keep pace for HCA, but I don't even think thats a given in this game. I don't think there's a huge difference bw these two teams, definitely not enough to justify this line. LA does have the motivation to win obviously, but Denver should be looking to this game in a big way as well everyone brings their A game for the Lakers. Also, LA goes to Portland the next day, and you got to think they save at least a bit to prepare for that game and get it off their back. Portland has won 8 straight (I believe) over LA in Portland, and I think LA will look to end that 2m. I'm not saying they lookahead to that game, but I think it may make a small difference- possibly 5 less minutes of Kobe, possibly not jumping at loose balls like its a championship game, possibly a flat out lookahead. Kobe hasn't really been playing great team ball while Denver has. Either way, I do not see any reason that Denver doesn't come hard: they have the talent to hang and the motivation to seal the division and beat LA. LA is only 2-5 ATS revenging losses this yr. 1 days rest is the worst for LA with them at 16-26 ATS on one day rest vs 24-12 vs anything else. Likely play this for 3


This is what I call an EXPECTED outcome. I think your diligence and work has shown that in this spot that the Lakers can LOSE this game or squeak out the win---
I can see Denver with a 10 point lead in this game--

THe name Lakers automatically pushes the line a few points higher, so that is why the line is -9, also Denver played last night---
However you hit the point that with Portland on deck, Lakers should just do enough to win tonight and will be trailing at times in this game--
As long as they avoid the strong close by the Lakers, Denver can cover--

DId you ever think about playing Moneyline, if you take the +9 you must believe they can win the game ---

That is how the Pros do it, they look at expected outcomes, I expect Denver to cover and possibly have a good shot to win tonight-- So the +9 are a bonus
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Denver @ LAL
gonna be on Denver at the best line I can find. Denver has been playing amazingly albeit at home, and I know that they do have a great advantage at home being Mile High. I also do know LA has revenge for the 79-90 loss they had. However, this line is ridiculous. My power ratings only have this at -5.5 so I have to jump at the value I see. LA should win to keep pace for HCA, but I don't even think thats a given in this game. I don't think there's a huge difference bw these two teams, definitely not enough to justify this line. LA does have the motivation to win obviously, but Denver should be looking to this game in a big way as well everyone brings their A game for the Lakers. Also, LA goes to Portland the next day, and you got to think they save at least a bit to prepare for that game and get it off their back. Portland has won 8 straight (I believe) over LA in Portland, and I think LA will look to end that 2m. I'm not saying they lookahead to that game, but I think it may make a small difference- possibly 5 less minutes of Kobe, possibly not jumping at loose balls like its a championship game, possibly a flat out lookahead. Kobe hasn't really been playing great team ball while Denver has. Either way, I do not see any reason that Denver doesn't come hard: they have the talent to hang and the motivation to seal the division and beat LA. LA is only 2-5 ATS revenging losses this yr. 1 days rest is the worst for LA with them at 16-26 ATS on one day rest vs 24-12 vs anything else. Likely play this for 3


This is what I call an EXPECTED outcome. I think your diligence and work has shown that in this spot that the Lakers can LOSE this game or squeak out the win---
I can see Denver with a 10 point lead in this game--

THe name Lakers automatically pushes the line a few points higher, so that is why the line is -9, also Denver played last night---
However you hit the point that with Portland on deck, Lakers should just do enough to win tonight and will be trailing at times in this game--
As long as they avoid the strong close by the Lakers, Denver can cover--

DId you ever think about playing Moneyline, if you take the +9 you must believe they can win the game ---

That is how the Pros do it, they look at expected outcomes, I expect Denver to cover and possibly have a good shot to win tonight-- So the +9 are a bonus
Click to expand...

I am hesitant at the ML but wouldn't rule it out. Great pt about just being "the lakers" that line goes up a point or two. Maybe I will add the ML, but I really see just a close LA win. I think I will add a small bet on the ML
 
One issue I have with Chicago is their lineup---

They are unpredictable becasue they rely on a lot of jump shooters and have different guys scoring for them, some times its Gordon, then its Rose, then Miller, then Heinrich, they are all over the place-
This is why they are unpredictable- they also blow leads and can come back from big defecits--
I realized this right away, this teams makeup does not make for a good bet. They are not a trustworthy team and you never know what they will do--
Ie losses to Raps and Indy late in season prove this, this team is not good at all on road, at home they may be better but still wtih a shit coach and no go to guys and balanced scoring and all jump shots they are still unpredictable-
Howevver if Philly is in mail in mode, Bulls should win tonight.
 
SF_capper said:
I am hesitant at the ML but wouldn't rule it out. Great pt about just being "the lakers" that line goes up a point or two. Maybe I will add the ML, but I really see just a close LA win. I think I will add a small bet on the ML
Click to expand...

I think the real line is -6 -- They add another 2 for being the lakers and then 1 more point due to Denver playing last night---

Lakers are always inflated and in this spot they are inflated again--

however they can lose the game also.
 
bleh really got overexcited to get these plays in. Should've waited and watched these lines. I wanted to hit the openers first. I have another book that opens lines around 9PM herewith reduced juice. Probably couldve waited for that and not have lost value
 
Really think the lakers look past Denver a tad here with the game against Portland on deck. I also think getting Bynum back into the mix, might benefit you as well in this one. At first thought why is the hottest team in the NBA catching 8.5, but Sammy's right they are the LAKERS.

Good Luck like both your plays, Bulls more so than the Nuggets.
 
i hope the bulls win. is salmons ques. with a back problem? sportsinsights shows money coming in on chicago but i think most people are pretty attracted toward the +6 with the team w/ the better record. bulls are sick at home and i think gordon goes off tonight. kinda interested in the under, these teams play sloppily against each other and both defenses are underrated parlayed with the fact that the offenses can go cold for minutes at a time. regardless, im thinking 102-90 chitown homies.

i forgot to mention that instead of thinking philly is looking ahead to cleveland tomorrow they might blow their load tonight knowing this might be the only winnable game for them for the rest of the year. detroit has to play the bulls and travel to miami at the end of the year so if the bulls win this and win the rest of the games (which can easily be done) they move up heavy in the standings and maybe end up over .500
that would be sweet
 
thanks guys. Nice late Chicago 2nd Q rally covers my 2nd Q bet

lookin at them 2nd H
would love 4 a bit more than the 4.5 I'm getting right now tho
 
poretty much philly played their best ball in the 1st Q. went 4/5 from 3 for the worst 3 pt shootin team in the league. chicago got in foul trouble and needed aaron gray. Chicago has momentum and it should carry into the 2nd H. up 5 end of 3, win by 15
 
just a quality bet on a good team in the west playin for seeding. Sac is winning the boards battle, but with them being the worst team in the league in reb diff and Houston 4th best I expect completely opposite in the 2nd H. Best case scenario was Sac up 5 @ half and it happened for me
 
kobe and pau played the whole 1st Q and LA got 11 more FTA than the team leading the league in FTA PG. Expect kobe and pau to sit and them to force feed bynum who is looking decent but not great. Expect a 4 pt game at half
 
very nice so far
Chicago -6 -102- 5 W
Chicago 2nd Q -1.5 -115- 2 W
Chicago 4th Q -1.5- 2 W
2nd H Chicago -5 -105- 3 W
2nd Q IPL Denver -1 -105- 3- W
+15
pending:
2nd H Houston -9 -106.25- 4
Denver +9- 3
 
SF, great fukn play bro the past couple of days. had the bulls earlier and this would be a sweet day if the nuggets can pull this win out as I got them plus the points and ML.

BOL!!
 
JR came up big in the last three minutes..I wanna say 10 points

Nice in qtr play.

I'll have Jersey-Detroit thoughts in a bit.
 
if this qtr hits, will look for Denver to make a 4th Q comeback. I'm expecting LA to be up 6/7 at the end of 3 and for the game to end within 5 so will see. I'm amazing myself with how I'm reading these so hopefully it continues

BAR- please tell me u love detroit...
 
I do like them...

I am trying to get one hang-up out of my head first but I really do side that way...

Need another 30 mins or so of looking at a few things and I'll have my decision.

Line came out where I thought it...and you did as well....
 
2nd H Denver/LAL OVER 102.5 -105- 3

I normally don't even look at the totals, but I went in the discussion thread and saw discussion and was real surprised by this line. JR got hot- can expect the same 2nd H. LA shot 41%- can expect better. Denver only shot 11 FTs- they lead the league at 31 per game, esp for this big game they'll discuss at half to attack to get fouled. warning: I'm not historically even average at totals
 
way to strive for an over

Latest Plays
8:32 DEN - Traveling on J. Petro
8:47 LAL - Bad pass by P. Gasol
8:57 DEN - J. Petro enters game for C. Andersen
8:57 DEN - Bad pass by C. Billups
9:08 DEN - C. Andersen defensive rebound
9:10 LAL - A. Bynum misses a free throw
:hang:
 
SF_capper said:
if this qtr hits, will look for Denver to make a 4th Q comeback. I'm expecting LA to be up 6/7 at the end of 3 and for the game to end within 5 so will see. I'm amazing myself with how I'm reading these so hopefully it continues

BAR- please tell me u love detroit...
Click to expand...

feelin good and still stand by my original thought. andersen has been a nonfactor with the 4 early fouls, Melo got his 4th. I think denver plays hard this 4th and I think they loosen the whistles in the 4th for a good nice game which I again think LA wins by 5.

IPL 4th Q Denver +2 -105- 3
 
SF_capper said:
if this qtr hits, will look for Denver to make a 4th Q comeback. I'm expecting LA to be up 6/7 at the end of 3 and for the game to end within 5 so will see. I'm amazing myself with how I'm reading these so hopefully it continues

/quote]


you're locked in...nice 3rd Q man

hope Nuggs cover for yas
Click to expand...
 
thanks ret. with only 45 pt needed for my 2nd H over, I do fear it still as I think this 4th will be very tight. hopefully late FTs push it over
 
No fear in our vocabulary-----

The play is in, we are confident no matter what happens, you cant break our spirit--

we treat every game as an independent mission and will always have the edge
 
Now this is looking a little sketchy. Ive noticed the whistles get blown more often whenever their is a lull in play. When both teams are going, the refs are overlooking the contact or will call a foul if the basket doesnt drop.
 
Both teams combined are shooting about .200 and .400, but the total is going to go way over the line.
 
t-dot said:
Now this is looking a little sketchy. Ive noticed the whistles get blown more often whenever their is a lull in play. When both teams are going, the refs are overlooking the contact or will call a foul if the basket doesnt drop.
Click to expand...

:popcorn:
 
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