Steelers vs. Bills Discussion Thread

Watt did not miss a game this year, first time in four years, Steelers 1-10 in games Watt has missed, but they've played within 10 points seven of eleven times. Played last year in Buffalo without Watt and the Bills put up 38 with over 500 yards of offense. Pickett even threw for over 300 yards in chase mode.

Game will hinge on the first 20 minutes. Bills get up early and the Steelers will have to press, the Bills should take advantage of Rudolph being forced to throw and it will be a blowout. If the Bills play with their food like they sometimes do the Steelers will stick to the ground, shorten the game and the spread will be tough to cover.
 
Steelers offense has been much, much better and they should be able to run against Buffalo. Allen and Cook should both have big games though. Would love to play over but Buffalo just plays so slow and turns the ball over at all the wrong times.
 
I think Ryans (Houston) earned it. Tomlin is indeed a coach I would love to have. The rumors of his potential firing a month ago were pure insanity. Not sure I could name someone I would rather have over him. The Canada experiment was baffling but he survived it and thats saying something. 20 years without a losing record. Good luck matching a feat like that. I may grab +10 if it shows up again. Doubt the Steelers win but less likely they lose by double digits. Of course, I’m factoring in a positive turnover margin.
 
I really like this Bills team, but in crunch time they are WAY TOO dependent on Allen turning into Superman. It’s been this way for quite awhile and doesn’t seem to be changing. I think they win a squeaker against Pitt. Buffalo 23-20
 
Surely the bad weather favors the turnover machine. Bills are good but the Steelers were built for games like this. McDoorMat or Tomlin? CAMAWWNNN
 
Wind wind wind ...
It appears the BILLS went out and got the backs needed for this type of game ..
First it was Damian Harris who burned them for a 70 yd td in the wind game here when the Patriots won ..He's been out , but Murray and Playoff Lenny are available to grind it out...
Nice spot for Josh Allen's bullets vs Rudolph's noodle arm ...

Very close to hammering Steelers tt under
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Could have more to do with the removal of Canada and his goofy motion concepts but I’d say Steelers offense has been better with Rudolph than either Pickett or Mitch.
Click to expand...

Mason holds the ball way too long. Benefited from playing some bad teams to generate this little win streak. They have zero chance of winning this game unless Allen turns it over 5 times.
 
There was a lot of drama last year but hard to forget about a man named Skyler almost beating the Bills in this round.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Surely the bad weather favors the turnover machine. Bills are good but the Steelers were built for games like this. McDoorMat or Tomlin? CAMAWWNNN
Click to expand...

Tomlin’s proved his success getting this team to the playoffs. But he doesn’t have much success at this point for a very long long time.
 
Seems like a great under game

Bills are going to get teased all over the place, I sure wouldn't enjoy laying 10 points with that squad but not really keen on expecting the Steez to score much either. Seems like a 16-9 type game to me. Watt out obviously would be important but if it's that windy both defenses will be playing close to the line.
 
Reviewing that Bills wildcard win from last year over Skylar Thompson and Miami:

- Bills got opening kickoff, drove to Miami 32, and instead of kicking a FG went for it on 4th and 3 and failed.
- Dolphins went 3 and out
- Bills drove 73 yards for TD, up 7-0
- Skylar gets picked off of his 3rd pass of the day
- Bills run it in in 5 plays and go up 14-0
- Dolphins get their first first down but fizzle out and punt
- Bills drive it down to Miami 15 and kick a FG early in the 2nd Q to make it 17-0

At this point things got weird:

- Bass kicks it OOB, Miami drives 38 yards and kicks a 40 yard FG, 17-3
- Allen throws a pick at midfield
- Dolphins go 18 yards and kick a 48 yard FG, 17-6
- Bill have a 54 yard pass to Shakir overturned by replay, punt and Cedric Wilson returns the punt 50 yards
- Miami goes 3 and out but kicks a 37 yard FG, 17-9
- Allen gets picked again and Dolphins return it to the Bills 18
- This time Miami finishes the 18 yard drive and convert the 2 pts to tie it at 17
- Bills drive it 54 yards in 26 seconds to retake the lead on a FG right before half.
- Miami goes 3 and out to start the 2nd half
- On the Bills first play of the 2nd half Allen is strip sacked and Miami scoops and score to go ahead 24-20

So to recap, the Bills throttled Miami for the first 18 minutes. Then they turned it over 3 times in the span of 15 minutes which allowed Miami to score 24 points with about 80 yards of offense.

After Miami took the lead both defenses stepped it up. The Bills didn't score until later in the 3rd after a pick gave them a short field for a 33 yard TD drive. Then Miami went 3 and out again and the pulls drove 68 yards to go up by ten.

Miami put together their ONE significant drive early in the 4th quarter, going 75 yards to get to the final scorre of 34-31. Miami had it twice more but couldn't get onto the Bills side of the field.

This game was two weeks after the Damar play.
 
But, this is what the Bills do. They consistently underperform, make bad decisions like passing up FGs early in games, turn the ball over, etc. This team should have at least one SB win, but not for the blunders.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Surely the bad weather favors the turnover machine. Bills are good but the Steelers were built for games like this. McDoorMat or Tomlin? CAMAWWNNN
Click to expand...

They’re the same coach though. Neither of them are good with the “common sense” stuff like 4th down decisions, timeouts, challenges, etc.

The one trait they share, and is the reason they are where they are is they are leaders who handle the team and individuals well. They’re the rah-rah guys that players love to play for.

Let’s not act like Tomlin is somehow a much better, or even better “gameday” coach than McDermott. They’re both pretty awful at that part of it, and it’s been called out on here for years (for both of them).
 
Who has done less with more? That was my thought. I didnt realize I brought “gameday” coach into it. 10 points seems like alot to me is all.
 
Adding
SENECA BUFFALO prices
Refund if player doesn't appear in game .

To score TD

JOSH ALLEN +110. 2.1 UNITS ($420)

PLAYOFF LENNY +510. 0.7 UNITS ($140)

MURRAY +1700. 0.2 UNITS ($40)
 
So much can change from now until when forecasting weather in Orchard Park ..

...
Usually some wind at the stadium...
Possibly gusts are no where near the orginal projections of max 60-70 mph ..
Could end up being 15-30 mph ..

Temp 22-26 degrees , with 20-40% of light snow ....

They love to scare people in wny into stimulating the economy ( when possible bad weather is forecasted people tend to stock up on everything at Wegmans and gas etc )

48k + people lost electricity today , not that uncommon with high winds.
 
Last edited:
A couple thoughts

Weather a concern but do you really believe bad weather favors the Steelers? Let's just say there are 40 mph gusts... Let's just say field goals are a no go outside of xp distance. Pitt would have to score tds. Bills have the run game to get 3+ yards per play and will just use all 4 downs if they have field position. Who will be likely to punt more often?

The Bills defense has been the most resilient aspect of the team the whole season. Despite the injuries they just keep making plays. Miami had them on the ropes in the run game lw but that was only because of the threat of speed. Even with that they were able to shut down the run 2ndh completely. Pitt will likely be looking to pound the run to extend drives, but they do not have the speed at rb or the threat of a quick slant to keep them at bay. Taron Johnson might be the catalyst for big run stops he has a knack for it. Bills defensive front should be able to get to Mason. I do think Pitt has a shot to hit a long ball with either Dionte or Pickens but if Pitt is forced into 3rd & longs I have little faith Mason can do it consistently. Injuries def something to watch- by some accounts Rasul could have went back into the game lw but was held out. Not having him would be a big blow as I think biggest liability on the Bills team d is Hyde/Poyer. Dodson is another to watch although Spector came in and played very well. LB depth is bad but I'm hoping the Bills can just get out of this round healthy.

Offensively Buffalo has been JUST off so many times. Horrible turnovers, bad clock management have kept so many points off the board lately. On the flip side ppl may disagree but I think Brady's play calling has been very very good. Execution has been lacking. Cook has a masterful game then follows it up with 2 fumbles vs Chargers & a couple dropped gimme tds consecutive weeks. I don't forsee many passing targets for Cook in the rz anymore. That being said Shakir has been stepping up huge along with Kincaid. Minkah likely returning but Diggs must be accounted for. I think especially with Gabe's status in the air Buffalo will look to lean into 12 a bit more.

Zero chance the Bills look past anyone with the way this season has played out.

Given the way the Bills have been winning (get down early, struggle, win a nail biter) I don't see how you could confidently lay DD here. At the same time I think we see a focused offensive effort and with no Watt Pitt D doesn't strike as much fear in my heart. They are facing a real offense warts and all it's light years better than what they have seen recently. To think Sherfield & Harty have done nothing all season then get them the #2 seed just shows the team depth. Allen might just go bananas here.

I'm trying to mind meld with Brady & see who gets featured before I look at prop numbers. It could come from anyone. If TY can't go Fournette gets a bigger role but I still think Cook gets the lion's share of carries. No ty means Deonte gets more action on special teams & could be a sneaky one. I'd imagine Sherf gets a couple offensive packages thrown his way.

Initial lean to Cook rush yds over. Much better on the ground at home and he's fresh.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Adding
SENECA BUFFALO prices
Refund if player doesn't appear in game .

To score TD

JOSH ALLEN +110. 2.1 UNITS ($420)

PLAYOFF LENNY +510. 0.7 UNITS ($140)

MURRAY +1700. 0.2 UNITS ($40)
Click to expand...


Very strange, sounds like Ty Johnson is out, but FOURNETTE is now +650 and Murray is +2000

Tempted to sprinkle a little more down ...

For now

FOURNETTE 2+ TD +6600
$16
 
Lexington 125 said:
A couple thoughts

Weather a concern but do you really believe bad weather favors the Steelers? Let's just say there are 40 mph gusts... Let's just say field goals are a no go outside of xp distance. Pitt would have to score tds. Bills have the run game to get 3+ yards per play and will just use all 4 downs if they have field position. Who will be likely to punt more often?

The Bills defense has been the most resilient aspect of the team the whole season. Despite the injuries they just keep making plays. Miami had them on the ropes in the run game lw but that was only because of the threat of speed. Even with that they were able to shut down the run 2ndh completely. Pitt will likely be looking to pound the run to extend drives, but they do not have the speed at rb or the threat of a quick slant to keep them at bay. Taron Johnson might be the catalyst for big run stops he has a knack for it. Bills defensive front should be able to get to Mason. I do think Pitt has a shot to hit a long ball with either Dionte or Pickens but if Pitt is forced into 3rd & longs I have little faith Mason can do it consistently. Injuries def something to watch- by some accounts Rasul could have went back into the game lw but was held out. Not having him would be a big blow as I think biggest liability on the Bills team d is Hyde/Poyer. Dodson is another to watch although Spector came in and played very well. LB depth is bad but I'm hoping the Bills can just get out of this round healthy.

Offensively Buffalo has been JUST off so many times. Horrible turnovers, bad clock management have kept so many points off the board lately. On the flip side ppl may disagree but I think Brady's play calling has been very very good. Execution has been lacking. Cook has a masterful game then follows it up with 2 fumbles vs Chargers & a couple dropped gimme tds consecutive weeks. I don't forsee many passing targets for Cook in the rz anymore. That being said Shakir has been stepping up huge along with Kincaid. Minkah likely returning but Diggs must be accounted for. I think especially with Gabe's status in the air Buffalo will look to lean into 12 a bit more.

Zero chance the Bills look past anyone with the way this season has played out.

Given the way the Bills have been winning (get down early, struggle, win a nail biter) I don't see how you could confidently lay DD here. At the same time I think we see a focused offensive effort and with no Watt Pitt D doesn't strike as much fear in my heart. They are facing a real offense warts and all it's light years better than what they have seen recently. To think Sherfield & Harty have done nothing all season then get them the #2 seed just shows the team depth. Allen might just go bananas here.

I'm trying to mind meld with Brady & see who gets featured before I look at prop numbers. It could come from anyone. If TY can't go Fournette gets a bigger role but I still think Cook gets the lion's share of carries. No ty means Deonte gets more action on special teams & could be a sneaky one. I'd imagine Sherf gets a couple offensive packages thrown his way.

Initial lean to Cook rush yds over. Much better on the ground at home and he's fresh.
Click to expand...
I guess with Shakir and Kincaid, Deonte can’t get on the field much as a WR?

That said are they nervous about fielding the punts/kick offs? He only does one? He housed one recently, I’d play him unless he’s had ball issues
 
twinkie13 said:
I guess with Shakir and Kincaid, Deonte can’t get on the field much as a WR?

That said are they nervous about fielding the punts/kick offs? He only does one? He housed one recently, I’d play him unless he’s had ball issues
Click to expand...

Gabe Davis , Shakir , and Sherfield have all been. Fantastic run blockers this season.

.. Guessing Harty is a liability in that aspect ( from what I've seen on all 22 in a small sample size)
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Adding
SENECA BUFFALO prices
Refund if player doesn't appear in game .

To score TD

JOSH ALLEN +110. 2.1 UNITS ($420)

PLAYOFF LENNY +510. 0.7 UNITS ($140)

MURRAY +1700. 0.2 UNITS ($40)
Click to expand...


Adding

LENNY +625 ( missed out on. +650) $45

Murray +2000. $15



Allen Td has moved to. -124 here
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Gabe Davis , Shakir , and Sherfield have all been. Fantastic run blockers this season.

.. Guessing Harty is a liability in that aspect ( from what I've seen on all 22 in a small sample size)
Click to expand...
Yea hard for him to crack that lineup. A spark on returns though!
 
Rumors percolating online they could move the game due to weather. Don’t see it happening but figured I’d throw it out there. Possible alternate sites include Cleveland. Obviously, that favors Buffalo.
 
Inspekdah said:
We saw Rudolph vs. a decent defense in bad conditions. It's not good.

This is easily the best bet of the weekend.
Click to expand...
Don’t understand this statement. Dude had 2 incompletions playing against most of Balty’s starting defense in shitty conditions.

PlayerC/ATTYDSTDINT
M. Rudolph18/2015210
 
C-MAN said:
Rumors percolating online they could move the game due to weather. Don’t see it happening but figured I’d throw it out there. Possible alternate sites include Cleveland. Obviously, that favors Buffalo.
Click to expand...

Where did you see this? Lol.

We’ve become such a pussified society it’s sad.

There is zero percent chance the game gets moved. The fact anyone even floated the idea is ludicrous.
 
C-MAN said:
Rumors percolating online they could move the game due to weather. Don’t see it happening but figured I’d throw it out there. Possible alternate sites include Cleveland. Obviously, that favors Buffalo.
Click to expand...
If anything, it would be moved to Monday. Weather improves a bit the next day. That would just lock the winner into a Sunday contest, no big deal since the other AFC games are this Saturday (and Ravens are off).
 
jedi ninja said:
Where did you see this? Lol.

We’ve become such a pussified society it’s sad.

There is zero percent chance the game gets moved. The fact anyone even floated the idea is ludicrous.
Click to expand...
Local radio show here in Pittsburgh (The Fan) had a guy on who covers the bills. He is the one that reported it. Seems to me there have been games played in worse weather - maybe even this weekend in KC - so probably not happening, but it did come from a Buff reporter.
 
C-MAN said:
Local radio show here in Pittsburgh (The Fan) had a guy on who covers the bills. He is the one that reported it. Seems to me there have been games played in worse weather - maybe even this weekend in KC - so probably not happening, but it did come from a Buff reporter.
Click to expand...

Do you know the name of the guy? I can try and find clip if not.
 
C-MAN said:
Rumors percolating online they could move the game due to weather. Don’t see it happening but figured I’d throw it out there. Possible alternate sites include Cleveland. Obviously, that favors Buffalo.
Click to expand...
Came from Marty Collins and makes sense if the state of emergency has been declared. Gotta be prepared.
 
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