Phoenix Sun Poll..... Homers and anyone who watched their games recently

[bluemyboy]

I think I am going to try and find players on teams that I think have a really really good shot of winning finals MVP. I tend to lean towards the fans choice esspecially the player's team fans. Alot of times in situations where a team has not won for a long while it is easier to pick the guy you know is a shoe in if they win. It is not by any means a lock, but I weigh the pick and the price and see how good a hedge it actually is with the other side be it a series ML, game ML, or player prop to win MVP. if there is no clear cut guy in my oppinion then I leave it alone, I have only tried it once in this last superbowl with PM/bears. I feel that finals MVP is hugely motivated by the public and not neccisarily the person that had the best performance although that certainly matters and I try to take that into account.

anyways just kinda want to get an early view on some favs this year to watch in the finals. I have not really watched many games of any of these teams but kinda want to find if there is any consensus of people who have seen them play or followed them at all. Thanks for the help in these, I will try to spread them out so I dont spam the NBA room.

Thanks.

 

[brewer]

timmy duncan on spurs, nash or amare on suns, lbj on cavs, chauncey/rip/rasheed on det

is what i think atm for their respected teams

 

[bluemyboy]

I think that Nash's MVPs would kinda allow this award to go to another player to kinda spread out the love of this team if they did win, but maybe I am reaching there. This is probably going to be a team that I would just bet on their ML to win at some point.... but will have to see how the poll plays out.

 

[bluemyboy]

timmy duncan on spurs, nash or amare on suns, lbj on cavs, chauncey/rip/rasheed on det

is what i think atm for their respected teams

exactly what I wanted.... thanks. I'll have polls for the other teams too, besides the suns. I think that there are certain teams who have players who just have to take the MVP if the team wins. thanks.

 

[brewer]

blue, you have any thoughts on how i should hedge my cavs to win it all. i have $70 on them to win $1750, (25 to 1).

i know they are getting by nj but i dunno bout det. thoughts if you got em would be appreciated.

 

[bluemyboy]

blue, you have any thoughts on how i should hedge my cavs to win it all. i have $70 on them to win $1750, (25 to 1).

i know they are getting by nj but i dunno bout det. thoughts if you got em would be appreciated.

I like figuring out how I would hedge something... I'll try and get some good ideas of series lines and possibilities and respond when I am better educated. I personally would probably let it sit until the finals and hedge then, but havent crunched the numbers. not really sure though, will get back to you.

 

[bluemyboy]

to those who chose Leandro.... any explanation? what is it on or off the court that at this point he would get your vote. should it be someone else and he is the good feeling pick, or does he have a legitamite case of being the most crucial part of this years Suns team in the playoffs/finals? thanks.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

I think Nash is a lock to win it if they win it all .. especially after this nose injury and when he gets beat out by Dirk for the league MVP. This would be kind of like Peyton Manning winning the MVP for the Colts in the Super Bowl, it was practically a lock, and the odds on him winning it were much better than the Colts ML, so I just went big on that instead of the Colts. I'd probably do the same here if the Suns were playing anyone other than the Pistons.

 

[tuck321]

A great showing by Nash does not necessarily win it all. A great post season by Amare might.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

A great showing by Nash does not necessarily win it all. A great post season by Amare might.

I don't think it can be Amare over Nash, unless Nash shoots terribly or something .. someone has to get the ball to Amare, if he goes off for 30 or something, Nash will have 15+ assists ... who gets the MVP then? I think the only other person it could be would be Marion, since he makes his own shots, he'd have to go absolutely insane on the boards, block, steals, and avg 20+. That most likely won't happen, but Marion playing well doesn't mean Nash is getting ast necessarily, but it does for Amare

 

[bluemyboy]

it just seems to me that this team is so good all the way around that it could really go to anyone and no one would say anything. The only reason why I think this situation and peytons were different is because Peyton had not gotten any award for 2 years and the media was throwing him under the bus saying that without this Peyton is incomplete. It was all about Peyton and nobody really else. Nash is getting noticed for his play and no one is saying at this point that he needs to win it all to make his legacy count. this will probably end up being just a play on the Suns.

although I did not watch game one yesterday and just now am seeing the nose thing. That could be very powerful, will have to see how the media treats him today.

 

[bluemyboy]

blue, you have any thoughts on how i should hedge my cavs to win it all. i have $70 on them to win $1750, (25 to 1).

i know they are getting by nj but i dunno bout det. thoughts if you got em would be appreciated.

well if you want to lay off this series then it comes down to 2 or 3 bets and you have a good price to make some money imo. with 25-1 I would rather be safer and make less then take a risk and be possibly out even more then the 70.

for the Det series we are looking at probably a 3-1 line and that is extreme, I would let it sit until after the games at Det just in case Cle gets one of them and the Det line gets alot beter. so you play off at least to make up your 70$. so now you are sitting with about a 22-1 cashing if cle wins it all, and you Break ev or whatever you want if Det wins the series. Then you look at the west. Dont play any west team this round just too much uncertainty. Play on Phx or SA to win the NBA CHAMP during the West finals (whatever team makes it there) they should be about 1-1 I would think at worst. Then if that team loses you then are still on the road in the finals as all the west teams have better reg season records then Cle. but I would say at the most you Break even as I could not see UTH or HOU as more then a 2-1 fav.

original wager: Cle 70 to win 1750
Det series: Det to win series 210 to win 70
during West Finals: Phx/SA to win NBA finals 350 to win 280 at most
Finals: opponent of Cle if it is not Phx or SA at say 1200 to win 600

these are basically the worst numbers I think you would get and it is still a powerful hedging oppertunity. this may not be the best way but this is how I would do it if I wanted to hedge out of the Cle bet. You can play around with the numbers if you feel more confident in another outcome. basically this way if UTH or HOU does not make it to the finals you make about 1200, but if one of those two teams does make it you break even about. I am not sure what I would do. Probably just let it sit for a while and see what happens, if Cle had won one or two more reg season game there would be alot more wiggle room. yeah so not sure what I would do, but it is a good problem to have at this point. sorry I couldnt be more help.

 

[bluemyboy]

and you could always toss some numbers you want out there on MB and hope some sucker scoops them up.... happens more then people think.

 

[bluemyboy]

sorry Im an idiot... but things look better. since GS is in and not Hou you actually have a shot at being the fav in the finals, and thus the hedging looks a little better as the only way you would break even then is if UTH made it and you might want to just toss them in a prop at this point to win it all. looking at this again I think I am flawed in the bets because both the Phx and Det bet would be at the same time and I did not think about that. There are alot of possibilities with that bet, and if you are really serious about hedging it in the conf finals you might want to dedicate and hour or two to researching possible lines and just busting numbers. After relooking at it I think I would be very content to let it sit until the finals, you have something to root for until then at the very least and are sitting with a nice price. but goodluck with it however you decide to go, you should let us know how you do it, I will be interested.

 

[brewer]

thanks for the thoughts blue.

 

[bluemyboy]

bumping this up for the afternoon crowd......

thanks again.

 

[bluemyboy]

thanks for the thoughts blue.

no prob.

 

[Capt. Slap]

I voted Nash but I could see Amare

Reasons why?

If Nash gets league MVP, he ain't gettin Finals MVP

 

[bluemyboy]

If Nash gets league MVP, he ain't gettin Finals MVP
I am inclined to believe this is so just because he has already got the MVP the last 2 years and the finals MVP is really not that meaningful in the sceme of things, which is why I would think they might give it to someone else if they did win.

and you think that if Nash does not get it, Amare is next in line?

 

[bluemyboy]

bumping this back up.....

With Amare going out, I like this to push it even more onto Steve's shoulders. I think that a suspension in the playoffs hurts your chances no matter what. but that is my oppinion. Will be interesting to watch. Right now I think that steve would get it at this point, but that could all change fast. I also like the fact he did not get the overall MVP this year, makes him a more viable candidate for the finals MVP imo. thoughts?

 

[Killa]

Stoudemire. Easily.

 

[bluemyboy]

Stoudemire. Easily.

care to elaborate? I could see it happening as he is back fully and they make the run this year, plus Nash already gets most of the recognition on this team and it would be nice to have someone new. but easily?