Nov 16 NBA

[SF_capper]

well lets start with one game who's line I just don't get

Portland +3- 4 units

the line is the only thing that scares me. I don't consider Philly the better team. I say Philly has a home court advantage of 2 pts (if that), so the lines saying Philly is -1 in neutral field? Portland off a loss, and they have the confidence, which is not what Philly has. I've been saying this, Philly has been showing excuses for their losses of: 'well, we played a good team" shit. If the coach expects to lose to "good teams", how's the team supposed to think? Confidence vs non-confidence. Confidence getting points. Philly can't handle speedy guards, so GL with Jack and Roy.


small lean to Indi as I don't think Toronto should be favored so much against any1. liked it better at 9, so at 7 value is lost. Also, Indi's 15 pt qtrs has messed me up, so I'll stay away

 

[BetCrimes1984]

...and Korver can't go off with his 3s against you, either.

BOL SF:cheers:

 

[Slug]

home court is worth more then 2 pts bro.

 

[JPicks]

GL on what I'm sure is one of many more plays to come.

 

[SF_capper]

For later on

Miami +10.5 @ Boston

Again, I was shocked by this line. this is the same line they gave NJ at Boston. Does Dwade back really make Miami= NJ? Well either way, Boston has been shutting teams out, defense to the extreme, and no wonder how. Rondo- speedy steals man. Allen- eh. Pierce- underrated lock down defender. Garnett- 1st team defense yr and yr. Perkins- big body to get in the way down low. Not touching the side cuz its so hard to play Boston right now, or against them. However, both Miami and Boston have been hitting unders recently (don't know the exact number). woulda liked 185, but I'll likely have 183 and thats fine. I see a Boston win 93-83 type game

Orlando -4 @ New Jersey
another line I don't get. NJ getting 4 pts at home? Normally for lines I don't get (like Boston) I'm scared as it seems like a trap (80% on Boston), but its the opposite. Everyone is still lovin Orlando. I guess cuz its their undefeated road mark, but still Jersey off 3 losses. Jkidd is too good for this to continue. Plus maybe a lookahead/flat spot for Orlando off the OT win with Boston coming up. Like Jersey to bounce back on their 1st in the 4/5

Utah -1 @ Cleveland
mostly just rvenge factor for Cleveland for that ESPN buzzer beating layup for Utah last week. Cleveland off the tough OT loss. Does worry me about Cleveland's thin backcourt. Cleveland off 2 losses, Utah been struggling on D. Like Cleveland

 

[SF_capper]

home court is worth more then 2 pts bro.

not at Philly

 

[SF_capper]

GL on what I'm sure is one of many more plays to come.

you know it. Glad to see you're on GS 1st H, hopefully they cash for us

 

[SF_capper]

...and Korver can't go off with his 3s against you, either.

BOL SF:cheers:

hate to bet against injury, but hey. its true

 

[Slug]

yup, even at phily

 

[SF_capper]

yup, even at phily

homecourt is on average historically worth 3.1 points in the NBA. some teams have stronger home court advantages, some have weaker. Philly, as the forum discussed before the season, has one of the weakest home court (if not the wekaest) advantages in the league. the fans just aren't up for NBA it seems

 

[Slug]

hmm, Not sure where you got that 3.1 from and maybe your right, but i was under the impression that home court was worth closer to 6 points

 

[SF_capper]

hmm, Not sure where you got that 3.1 from and maybe your right, but i was under the impression that home court was worth closer to 6 points

3.1 from SPORTSBETTING- the book heh. pretty good read

it is worth 6, when you calculate both home courts. IE: philly -3 at home. would be a pk on neutral site. Portland -3 at Portland.. on average

 

[SF_capper]

welp:

Cleveland pk- 2 units
Jersey +4- 2 units
Miami UNDER 183- 4 units

 

[Slug]

aaahh, thats what you meant. My fault

 

[SF_capper]

aaahh, thats what you meant. My fault

NP. since there is never really a neatral site, swtiching home courts is worth 6 pts. just different ways to look at it

 

[SF_capper]

ok lets go:

San Antonio -9- 2 units
1st H San Antonio -5.5 (-120)- 2 units
UNDER 177.5- 2 units
New Orleans/Memphis OVER 201- 4 units
Minnesota +3.5- 2 units

writeups coming

 

[SF_capper]

well SA off a loss yesterday, SA bounces back from losses, especially in revenge for Houston who gave them their other win. I actually think SA's loss yesterdfay was a lookahead to today
These 2 always go under, now w TMAC out, pace slows even more

Memphis/NO- look at others. its good

Minnesota- VERY unpopular home dogg. Wash not a good road team, AL Jeff should dominate.

 

[SF_capper]

New Jersey 2nd H (-120) -2.5- 2 units

 

[SF_capper]

NJ getting the shots they want, just not goin down, should keep it w/in DD at least

 

[SF_capper]

Atlanta 2nd H -5.5 (-120)- 2 units

expecting a classic Seattle 2nd H collapse

 

[lungster]

great looking card. any night games?

 

[SF_capper]

San Antonio/Houston UNDER 90.5 (-120)- 4 units

both teams shooting around 55%, but only taking around 35 FGS. chasin out my full game under, but I believe it still goes full game under.

 

[SF_capper]

great looking card. any night games?

gonna be on GS 1st H and full game big! and the over probably

 

[SF_capper]

wow. portland

 

[SF_capper]

Portland +3- 4 units lose
Cleveland pk- 2 units win
Jersey +4- 2 units lose
Miami UNDER 183- 4 units push
San Antonio -9- 2 units lose
1st H San Antonio -5.5 (-120)- 2 units lose
UNDER 177.5- 2 units win
New Orleans/Memphis OVER 201- 4 units win
Minnesota +3.5- 2 units lose
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->New Jersey 2nd H (-120) -2.5- 2 units lose
Atlanta 2nd H -5.5 (-120)- 2 units win
San Antonio/Houston UNDER 90.5 (-120)- 4 units win

so far:
5-6
-1.4 units

 

[SF_capper]

and the chase goes onn

Golden State 1st H -3 (-120)- 10 units WIN
Golden State -5.5- 6 units WIN

 

[SF_capper]

2nd H Lakers -2.5 (-120)- 3 units

Lakes shootin 32% and got to the line 19 times. Pretty sure they can bring it to 40%. Kobe only with 1 FG

 

[JPicks]

Great finish to the evening man. I appreciate those Warriors.