NCAAF 15/16 Bowl Thread

[CrimsonK]

Record: 73-60 (+24.75)

Plays:

201 Arizona/New Mexico OVER 64.5​
201 Arizona -4 2H
204 BYU/Utah UNDER 54
​208 Georgia State +3.5 -115
208 Georgia State Total Points OVER 27 -115
211 WKU/USF OVER 65
211 WKU/USF OVER 33.5 1H
211 USF TT O16 1H
212 South Florida Total Points OVER 32 -110
212 South Florida +3 -125
213 Akron Total Points UNDER 20 -115
214 Utah State Total Points UNDER 27 -115
​214 Akron/Utah State UNDER 49
216 Toledo/Temple UNDER 53
​218 Boise State/No Illinois UNDER 28.5 1H
219 Georgia Southern +7.5
​219 Georgia Southern/Bowling Green OVER 66
220 Georgia Southern/BGSU UNDER 65
220 Georgia Southern ML +250
221 MTSU/WMU OVER 60.5
225 UConn +6 -120
225 UConn +.5 3Q -125
226 UConn/Marshall UNDER 44
226 Marshall Total points UNDER 24.5 -115
228 Washington State -2.5
230 Southern Miss/Washington UNDER 28.5 1H
230 Southern Miss/Washington UNDER 56
230 Washington -8 -115​
231 Indiana -1.5
235 Nebraska/UCLA OVER 61
238 Pittsburgh/Navy UNDER 56
238 Pittsburgh/Navy UNDER 27 1H
238 Navy 1H ML -140
239 Central Michigan 3Q ML +130
240 Minnesota -6
240 Minnesota -2.5 1H
241 Air Force/Cal OVER 65.5
241 Air Force +7
244 North Carolina +3
​248 LSU -6
249 Memphis +3 -115
251 NC State/Mississippi State OVER 56
253 Louisville PICK
253 Louisville/Texas A&M OVER 48
257 Houston Total Points UNDER 24.5 -115
258 Houston/Florida State UNDER 53
260 Michigan State/Alabama UNDER 49
262 Clemson +4
265 Florida/Michigan OVER 20.5 2H -115
266 Michigan/Florida UNDER 42.5
267 Notre Dame/Ohio State OVER 53.5
270 Iowa/Stanford UNDER 56.5
271 Mississippi -6.5
276 Arkansas -9.5 -115
278 Oregon -3.5 1H
280 West Virginia/Arizona State UNDER 66.5
280 Arizona State PICK
152 Alabama/Clemson UNDER 53.5
152 Clemson Team Total UNDER 23 -115Props:

Army/Navy:
ARMY 35 pts first/neither scores 35 pts +145
Jamir Tillman OVER 1 catch -125
A. Kemper rushing yards UNDER 55 -135

General:
PAC 12 OVER 6 Bowl Wins -105
Big 12 Zero Bowl Wins +3775
Big 12 Bowl Wins UNDER 3 -215
Games going to overtime over 1 -105
Alabama to win championship +105

New Mexico Bowl:
Anu Solomon OVER 19.5 completions -120
Anu Solomon OVER 275.5 passing yards -120
Jhurell Pressley OVER 76.5 rushing yards -120
Arizona/New Mexico Longest TD OVER 60.5 yards -115

Las Vegas Bowl:
Travis Wilson UNDER 17.5 completions -120
Kenneth Scott OVER 36.5 receiving yards -120
BYU/Utah Longest TD UNDER 47.5 -115
Mitch Matthews OVER 4 catches -115

Cure Bowl:
Nick Arbuckle OVER 328.5 yards passing -120

Camelia Bowl:
Jordan Reid OVER 4 catches -115
Simms McElfresh OVER 3 catches -110

New Orleans Bowl:
Trent Taylor OVER 94.5 receiving yards -120
Ark State/La Tech Longest TD OVER 62.5 yards -115

Miami Bowl:
Q. Flowers OVER 250.5 rushing+passing -125
M. Mack OVER 110.5 yards rushing -115

Potato Bowl:
Akron wins first quarter by 1-6 points +1100
Akron wins game by 1-6 points +450

Poinsettia Bowl:
Boise first score FG +375
T. Sperbeck OVER 5.5 catches -130

Go Daddy Bowl:
Matt Johnson Total Passing Yards UNDER 368.5 -115
Matt Johnson TD passes UNDER 3.5 -120
Travis Green Rushing Yards OVER 106.5 +105
LA Ramsby Rushing Yards OVER 67.5 +105
GASO -3.5 +350
GASO win 1Q by 1-6 +1000

Bahama Bowl:
Zach Terrell OVER 272.5 passing yards -120
Richie James OVER 96.5 receiving yards -120
Corey Davis OVER 6.5 catches -130
Longest TD OVER 61.5 -115

St. Pete Bowl:
Arkeel Newsome OVER 2.5 receptions -120

Sun Bowl:
Dom Williams OVER 6.5 receptions -120

Zaxby's Bowl:
Nick Mulens UNDER 23.5 completions -120
Nick Mullens UNDER 288.5 passing yards -120

Pinstripe Bowl:
Nate Sudfield OVER 290.5 passing yards -120
Simmie Cobbs OVER 4.5 receptions -130
Simmie Cobbs OVER 82.5 receiving yards -120

Foster Farms Bowl:
Josh Rosen OVER 22 completions -120
Josh Rosen OVER 277.5 passing yards -120

Military Bowl:
Jamir Tillman OVER 2.5 receptions -130
Jamir Tillman OVER 49.5 receiving yards -120

Little Caesar's Bowl
KJ Maye OVER 57.5 receiving yards -115

Armed Forces Bowl:
Bryce Treggs OVER 68.5 receiving yards -120

Russell Athletic Bowl:
KD Cannon OVER 4.5 receptions -120
KD Cannon OVER 77.5 receiving yards -120
Jay Lee OVER 3.5 receptions -120

Alamo Bowl:
Leonard Fournette OVER 188.5 rushing yards -120

Birmingham Bowl:
Ricardo Louis OVER 3.5 receptions -120
Peyton Barber OVER 68.5 rushing yards -120

Belk Bowl:
Dak Prescott OVER 53.5 rushing yards -120

Music City Bowl:
J Hubenak OVER 226.5 passing yards -115

Peach Bowl:
Dalvin Cook OVER 1.5 TD -150

Orange Bowl:
Samaje Perine to score 1st TD Oklahoma/Clemson +600
Deshaun Watson to score 1st TD Oklahoma/Clemson +700
Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 yards rushing -120

Cotton Bowl:
Total Points Scored 36-42 Michigan State/Alabama +650
Michigan State Team Total UNDER 20 -115
Derrick Henry to score 1st TD Michigan State/Alabama +250
Connor Cook UNDER 21.5 completions -130
Connor Cook UNDER 36.5 pass attempts -120
Connor Cook UNDER 247.5 passing yards -120
Connor Cook UNDER 1.5 TD passes +100

Outback Bowl:
Clayton Thorson UNDER 14.5 completions -120
Clayton Thorson UNDER 148.5 passing yards -120
Jalen Hurd UNDER 120.5 rushing yards -120
Alvin Kamara OVER 78.5 rushing+receiving yards +105
J. Jackson +6.5 rushing yards v. J. Hurd -115

Citrus Bowl:
Treon Harris UNDER 180.5 passing yards -120
De'Veon Smith UNDER 58.5 rushing yards -115

Fiesta Bowl:
​CJ Prosise UNDER 64.5 rushing yards -120

Rose Bowl:
Christian McCaffery UNDER 148.5 rushing yards -120
Stanford wins 1Q by 1-6 points +700
Iowa wins 1Q by 1-6 points +1020

No one's watching Bowl:
Penn State/UGA Longest TD OVER 40.5 yards -115

Alamo Bowl:
Bralon Addison OVER 72.5 receiving yards -115

Championship:
Kenyan Drake OVER 28.5 rushing yards -120
Kenyan Drake OVER 2.5 pass receptions -120
Jordan Leggett OVER 2.5 receptions -110
Ardarius Stewart OVER 4 receptions -120
Richard Mullaney OVER 2.5 receptions -120
Derrick Henry a 23+ yard rush -115

 

[CrimsonK]

260 Michigan State/Alabama UNDER 49

 

[RetroVK]

Best of luck CK

Us crimsons have to stick together .. errrr I mean us Vegases ... errr ..

 

[CrimsonK]

Best of luck CK

Us crimsons have to stick together .. errrr I mean us Vegases ... errr ..

:cheers3:

271 Mississippi -6.5

 

[B.A.R.]

Look forward to the thoughts...

 

[CrimsonK]

:cheers3: BAR

​276 Arkansas -9.5 -115

 

[CrimsonK]

251 NC State/Mississippi State OVER 56
266 Michigan/Florida UNDER 42.5
267 Notre Dame/Ohio State OVER 53.5

 

[cubsker]

like the looks of all of those.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks, cub. Hope you like this one too

270 Iowa/Stanford UNDER 56.5

 

[CrimsonK]

​248 LSU -6

 

[cubsker]

Thanks, cub. Hope you like this one too

270 Iowa/Stanford UNDER 56.5

i do

 

[CrimsonK]

219 Georgia Southern +7.5

 

[CrimsonK]

249 Memphis +3 -115

May or may not have been able to be patient there and get a 3 at 10c or better but got the key number and gotta think there is a fair chance that Memphis closes as the favorite. Will try to get some thoughts up on a game or two and will prob just work my way down the rotation numbers.

Anyone care to share a line they made for Texas A&M and Louisville or Tennessee and Northwestern?

 

[gsro]

had no clue you had a thread up, BOL CK

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks, gsro.

Georgia Southern +7.5

This is pretty basic. I'm getting a dog at a TD plus that rates to run for 200+ more yards than their opponent. I don't have any hard and fast rules really when looking at bowls but getting a dog that I think will have the ability to run with great success gets my attention. I think both teams are going to be really successful on offense. BGSU has one of the most impressive passing attacks in the nation and they will certainly get theirs. I love the fact that Dino Babers moved on to Syracuse and he has shown a pattern of loyalty to his assistants - 7 of his 9 assistants at BGSU came with him from EIU and it's reported he is working on a staff that may involve several from this staff. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward is coaching them in the bowl. That's fine, not a whole lot of inherent advantages for opponent, although I'm sure losing a guy like Babers who seems to be really well liked by players doesn't help, the fact that Ward runs their defense and now has to focus on the role of running a team. That's bad news, IMO, when you are facing a triple option offense and won't be able to be in press box or with players in defensive huddles. I'm not gonna pretend to know how he coaches or where he is geographically I just now this isn't the type of offense you want to try to figure out with staff shakeups over the next few weeks. I love the motivation for Southern also, they are the most accomplished program historically in the state of Georgia, but played at a lower level and this will actually be their first bowl appearance in the history of their program. I love that angle as well. This was really about getting a dog that will run for 400 yards, coaching turnover that will negatively effect option prep and in-game adjustments and motivation for Southern to win their first bowl game in history.

 

[gps_3]

249 Memphis +3 -115

May or may not have been able to be patient there and get a 3 at 10c or better but got the key number and gotta think there is a fair chance that Memphis closes as the favorite. Will try to get some thoughts up on a game or two and will prob just work my way down the rotation numbers.

Anyone care to share a line they made for Texas A&M and Louisville or Tennessee and Northwestern?

I made aTm -2' and Tennessee -6. Can't see myself backing Aggies, will almost definitely be on Vols.

With Memphis, I think they are the superior team and I can't imagine there is any excitement in the AU football complex right now about playing in Birmingham at 11 AM on a Wednesday. Throw in the loss of Muschamp and Robinson, and you've got some unrest internally as well. Is Fuente coaching the game? If he's there, could certainly see the players wanting to play hard for him in his last game there. Could also be true for any assistants coaching their last game. Just see no way to back AU here

 

[Schrute]

Really enjoy the writeups (and the plays)

GL this bowl season and in the semifinal game

 

[cubsker]

I wonder about Tenn's motivation. Bit of a disappointing year and now they get another boring Big Ten team that they know they outclass by a mile.

 

[gps_3]

Thanks, gsro.

Georgia Southern +7.5

This is pretty basic. I'm getting a dog at a TD plus that rates to run for 200+ more yards than their opponent. I don't have any hard and fast rules really when looking at bowls but getting a dog that I think will have the ability to run with great success gets my attention. I think both teams are going to be really successful on offense. BGSU has one of the most impressive passing attacks in the nation and they will certainly get theirs. I love the fact that Dino Babers moved on to Syracuse and he has shown a pattern of loyalty to his assistants - 7 of his 9 assistants at BGSU came with him from EIU and it's reported he is working on a staff that may involve several from this staff. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward is coaching them in the bowl. That's fine, not a whole lot of inherent advantages for opponent, although I'm sure losing a guy like Babers who seems to be really well liked by players doesn't help, the fact that Ward runs their defense and now has to focus on the role of running a team. That's bad news, IMO, when you are facing a triple option offense and won't be able to be in press box or with players in defensive huddles. I'm not gonna pretend to know how he coaches or where he is geographically I just now this isn't the type of offense you want to try to figure out with staff shakeups over the next few weeks. I love the motivation for Southern also, they are the most accomplished program historically in the state of Georgia, but played at a lower level and this will actually be their first bowl appearance in the history of their program. I love that angle as well. This was really about getting a dog that will run for 400 yards, coaching turnover that will negatively effect option prep and in-game adjustments and motivation for Southern to win their first bowl game in history.

One of my bowl season strategies is to take the over in the GMAC/Mobile/Go Daddy Bowl. It's in my hometown and I've been to several, scoring always seems to be plentiful

 

[CrimsonK]

LSU -6

This is really a dream matchup for LSU, IMO. I don't know that I see more schematic advantages of any games in the bowls than I see in this one. It's well documented by anyone who watches much college football that Texas Tech is abysmal in rush defense. They just gave up 403 yards at over 8 ypc and 6 TD to Texas their last time out. I know this may sound crazy, but I think Fournette could come close to matching those numbers, by his lonesome. They are just going to absolutely punish Texas Tech when they have the ball. Lot of frustrations could be taken out by this offense in this game. I said it back in the thread when discussing LSU/Alabama but their defense is actually better than probably their numbers and certainly general perception would have us believe. In my estimation, not many teams had a tougher back stretch to the season than LSU playing 5 out of their last 6 against teams I would have in my top 25, now they get a team that I would rate in the bottom half of teams nationally. I think the LSU defense, this season, is actually probably better equipped to have success amongst Big 12 style offenses than they were in the SEC. They are relatively undersized but very quick and athletic. Point in case, they played one of their better games last time out and held aTm to 7 points on 250 yards and I see some similarities stylistically with TT although it's not a great comparison. Again, here is a team that is going to dominate on the ground and in doing so will have a couple of NFL WR to throw to if Texas Tech just puts everyone in the box. I don't think LSU will shut down Texas Tech, I actually think this game will end up being played in 70's+ but at less than a TD and XP I like the team that has multiple ways to win, both with their offense and with their defense, where as TT as going to be entirely reliant on just scoring 50 and needing a TD on the majority of their possessions. If LSU can run the ball well and wear down their defense it could get really, really ugly. Don't love Les in bowls and don't know how much they'll care considering they had natty aspirations but the on field advantages were enough for me to get involved.

 

[CrimsonK]

I made aTm -2' and Tennessee -6. Can't see myself backing Aggies, will almost definitely be on Vols.

With Memphis, I think they are the superior team and I can't imagine there is any excitement in the AU football complex right now about playing in Birmingham at 11 AM on a Wednesday. Throw in the loss of Muschamp and Robinson, and you've got some unrest internally as well. Is Fuente coaching the game? If he's there, could certainly see the players wanting to play hard for him in his last game there. Could also be true for any assistants coaching their last game. Just see no way to back AU here

I have wanted to play Louisville for some reason that I can't quite figured out. Will prob look for a diff angle. I made it a pick and total of 51, really felt like someone wins 27-24, maybe my premonition of the Missouri 20-16 win over BYU will prove true again so here goes, 27-24 Ville.

Totally agree with you. I think Auburn will be one of the most disinterested teams of the whole bowl slate. This line is just silly, IMO. Take the names off the jerseys and Memphis is a TD favorite. I'll prob touch on it more but this is a nightmare offense to face with a guy whose playing to get paid without your DC and secondary coach. Fuente isn't coaching. Darrel Dickey is, pretty sure he coached at North Texas or one of those directionals awhile back. If he was coaching I'd join you in second mortgaging, probably.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks, Dwight.

Cub, ya I sorta agree although they are still just rising from the ashes and Jones is building so I get the sense he will have them more motivated than a lot of coaches would in this scenario. I made Tenn -9.5 and total 44 and had every intention of being on Tenn at less than a TD but saw 8.5 on 5d and 11.5 at open on BOL and it was one of those things where I was so sure I'd get a shot to play them but was wrong.

GPS, I would prob go to that one as well. This would prob be a fun game to watch. One of the few crummy bowls I have mild interest in seeing.

 

[B.A.R.]

I don't play early in bowl season due to injuries and suspensions but I did jump on LSU now. I'll be on their 1h tt, game tt...one of those later in the month. I have not been a fan of their defense this year but they will score at will.

Good number on Michigan Under. I'll be on Florida tt under as long as Peppers plays and they don't lose anymore to injury.

 

[wiseplayer]

I don't play early in bowl season due to injuries and suspensions but I did jump on LSU now.

+1. I know everyone gets excited to post Bowl plays but there's just way too much that will happen between now and the games beginning. I saw bowl threads started just to tell us that they would be posting plays. Take your time folks

 

[CrimsonK]

I hear ya, BAR and wise. Ill be looking at a few of those options as well. I think by getting in early I will have good enough number on most of these that I could bail and even have a pretty good shot at a middle if injury or other news comes out. I'm just an opener guy in general.

 

[M.W.]

Yeah, a lot will happen between now and kickoff -- especially line movement!

 

[CrimsonK]

249 Memphis +3

GPS posted this above on the thread:

"With Memphis, I think they are the superior team and I can't imagine there is any excitement in the AU football complex right now about playing in Birmingham at 11 AM on a Wednesday. Throw in the loss of Muschamp and Robinson, and you've got some unrest internally as well. Is Fuente coaching the game? If he's there, could certainly see the players wanting to play hard for him in his last game there. Could also be true for any assistants coaching their last game. Just see no way to back AU here."

I think Auburn could be one of, if not the most unmotivated team in the bowls. Pre-season Top 10, Heisman hopeful at QB, finally got one of CFB's top DC to come in and compliment Gus' killer offense and now they are 6-6 playing a C-USA team one morning in Birmingham. It's been a major disappointment this season, to say the least. Memphis on the other hand, I think will be very motivated. They get a chance to beat another SEC team and get to ride the "we've watched the tape of these guys how the heck are we and underdog" angle. Normally with Fuente leaving, I'd be a bit more cautious about getting involved seeing as that I have a high level of respect for him as a coach. However, the loss of Muschamp (DC), T-Rob (secondary coach) and offensive analyst and potential a LB coach off that staff. They rank 86th nationally in defense and now are going to try to slow the nation's top QB (IMO). So i think even in the shakeup of coaching turnover for this game, Memphis comes out way ahead. If you had forgotten or didn't see the Memphis/Ole Miss game, they dominated the game. They won 37-24 and Lynch threw for just shy of 400 yards. Temple is the only team that slowed Memphis and their defense is worlds better than Auburns. I see this as a money game for Lynch, he's essentially in a contract season and gets a chance to show he can have success against a bunch of guys with futures at car dealerships, car washes and landscaping companies (minus Davis and Lawson). 4 QB have posted QBR of 135 and up and they've given up 350+ through the air several times this year. The passing game of the Auburn offense is not a legitimate threat and the Memphis rush defense is pretty good. If Auburn gets down against this offense, can they rely on throwing the football to get them back in it? No, is my vote. In regards to running, only Temple and Navy got to 200 against them and I get the feeling for Auburn to win this game they are going to need to go well over that mark and force Lynch to make mistakes something he hasn't done much of (28:3). I prefer the Memphis offense and defense and have several major motivation angles going for me on this one.

 

[CrimsonK]

​258 Houston/Florida State UNDER 53

 

[CrimsonK]

251 Mississippi State/NC State OVER 56

Mississippi State turned out to be a great OVER team for me this season. In a year where the SEC took steps back to playing good/great defense, they just went nuts offensively. It all starts with Prescott and I really like him in his final game to have a monster performance. I read in another thread where results have been mixed in either playing or fading a prominent QB in their final game and from what I know about Prescott he isn't the kind of guy that will shut it down and shy away from contact or playing to win. Prescott pretty much said the main reason he came back for his senior season was to beat Ole Miss in the egg bowl. He didn't and they played their worst or second to worst game of the season. I love him to bounce back here and bring the team with him. Major relief coming for them too going from 3 Top 15 teams (IMO) to now playing a NC State team that pretty much won when they were supposed to and lost when they were supposed to. Miss St is above avg in plays per game with 75 but they've picked up the pace a bit the past 3, averaging 89 (which if that were season average that would be #1 nationally). NC State also runs 75 per game but the last 3, average 87. So I think it's safe to say the pace will be there and both teams have shown they aren't opposed to playing in high scoring affairs, NC State especially playing their last two in the 70's. Both QB value the football and are huge parts of their team's offenses both throwing and running. 59 TD (rushing and passing) to 8 INT between Prescott and Brissett this season so I think we are going to get pretty good QB play while neither defense is very good, NC State gives up tons of explosive plays, and both offenses are what landed them in this game. I have this one playing out something like 38-28 with a lean to Miss St at 5.

 

[wiseplayer]

Absolutely love the writeups. Thx!

 

[Frank Costanza]

Happy to be there vs. doesn't give a crap? Always an interesting angle.

Maybe will be motivated:
- I'm guessing IU which hasn't been bowling in a decade
- Ole Miss...embarrassed itself last year vs. TCU in the Peach, may be looking to right that ship

May not give a crap:
- Baylor...expectations were extreme this season and even up to the Texas game they had a chance to play in the Sugar...now in an athletic apparel bowl...that team doesn't appear to have much leadership and I'll be shocked if they show up big vs. NC

 

[CrimsonK]

258 Houston/Florida State UNDER 53

Houston is a relatively easy team to figure out, IMO. They are going to crush average to bad defenses and they are going to look mortal against the good ones. Vanderbilt they won 34-0 but if you actually watched the game you will see that a more reasonable outcome of that game should have been about 13-0 for Houston at least in terms of offensive productivity. They feasted on the Vanderbilt offense, scored a NOT and had a couple scoring drives of a few yards. They didn't do much. UConn held them to 17 in a loss but I'll discount that due to Ward and then Temple held them to 24 in a 24-13 win. So they don't exactly play very many good defenses so this should be quite a shock for them - a top 5, NFL-laden defense. I think they are going to get suffocated here. Pace wise it's going to be pretty slow, Houston rates in the top 25 in plays per game but recently have been really slow, FSU is slow all the time and I thin will be even more deliberate in this game. I think the under is a better play than FSU simply because I don't like the FSU offense at all. Love Cook, just don't think very highly at all of their passing attack. Also don't really like going against Houston here who I feel will be highly, highly motivated. FSU doesn't give up explosive plays and they also render teams extremely inefficient. Houston relies a lot on getting to the edge and as good as the Temple defense may be, I can assure you running laterally against the speed that FSU has is a bad plan. A very bad plan. Fortunately, I actually believe that Houston, unlike many fun Houston and mid-major teams of the past, plays good enough defense. They rate slightly above average in limiting explosive and efficient drives defensively. I like their rush defense more than pass defense, fortunately, that's how you wanna be against this Jameis-less FSU team. It's a fast track at the dome so this play could end up looking really dumb, I don't think it will though. Felt a number around 47/48 was more appropriate.

 

[CrimsonK]

Happy to be there vs. doesn't give a crap? Always an interesting angle.

Maybe will be motivated:
- I'm guessing IU which hasn't been bowling in a decade
- Ole Miss...embarrassed itself last year vs. TCU in the Peach, may be looking to right that ship

May not give a crap:
- Baylor...expectations were extreme this season and even up to the Texas game they had a chance to play in the Sugar...now in an athletic apparel bowl...that team doesn't appear to have much leadership and I'll be shocked if they show up big vs. NC

IU would def make a list of teams I would believe to be very motivated. I think OM will be as well for those same reasons. I would agree with you on Baylor although I'm not familiar enough to know anything about leadership, etc.

 

[CrimsonK]

244 North Carolina +3

I agree with Press above about motivation, or lack thereof, for Baylor. While their system probably does rate to have more success plugging in a WR at QB like they will probably do, he sure hasn't been good. I don't know enough about Briles to know whether or not he will really even try to start Stidham in a meaningless game but even if he does it's a tall task to ask for him to come in and not show any rust. I am not a big Baylor fan and getting a comparable or better offense, much better defense and a team that rates to be much more motivated got me involved when getting points.

Barring unforeseen stuff, there are really only two more sides I may play early, or at all. Will prob focus more on props and some team total where I want to get more involved on certain teams. I'll be interested to see if BM differs a whole lot on totals once they release so I'll have an eye on that as well. If anyone were to have a question, I'll be happy to answer but full disclosure I don't watch or follow a lot of mid major stuff anymore aside from needing to know from a CFB DFS standpoint so I'm prob not a great resource on those early bowl games.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Briles was stupid enough to expose his only QB to injury against Texas by allowing him to run read options, and to get out in space and take vicious shots. Again, this was his only QB on the sideline. After that, the next guy in line was throwing passes that should have been fair caught. Given this, which was some of the most abysmal coaching you'll ever see, I'll never put anything past the Briles boys again.

 

[CrimsonK]

Briles was stupid enough to expose his only QB to injury against Texas by allowing him to run read options, and to get out in space and take vicious shots. Again, this was his only QB on the sideline. After that, the next guy in line was throwing passes that should have been fair caught. Given this, which was some of the most abysmal coaching you'll ever see, I'll never put anything past the Briles boys again.

Yikes. Seems like the more I hear about Briles it's more his system that makes him the coach he is than his actual in-game stuff. I accidentally referred to you as Press above, my bad Frank. Thanks for the info and insight.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Appreciate your thoughts as well.

The Briles stuff was some of the most jaw-dropping idiocy I've ever seen. Baylor still with a helluva lot on the line, a Sugar Bowl berth for winning, and a coach that knows he has no one at backup QB. They make their only QB a sitting duck. Then watching the coaches trying to duct tape things once Johnson went out, instructing the 4th string guy on the sideline how to take a snap under center, only added to the frivolity.

 

[CrimsonK]

260 Michigan State/Alabama UNDER 49

If you have followed any of my narrative at all over the past several months, I have been trying to find spots to play Bama under the number. Bama's front 4 have been on such a level of dominance this season it just almost seems unfair at times to what they force opponents into. Stay stubborn and keep trying to run the ball and get into 2nd and 8,9,10 or throw on first down and risk taking a sack and getting way behind schedule. I'm glad I don't have to try to figure things out. I do think that Mich St has quality tackles on the line so I don't know that they will get as badly abused as some teams have but I also believe Bama's group is on a different level than what Mich St sees each week. Tim Williams is just a pass rusher for Bama, he has rushed the passer 114 times and has 42 sacks/hits/hurries. Not including guys like him, you are looking at between 3-5 first rounders of the starting front 7. Bama blitzes less than any team in the country because of the pressure they get up front and teams that try to force the ball end up throwing pick 6's. I think the key for both teams, just as I mentioned in regards to Bama/LSU will be who wins first down consistently. The big issue for Michigan State, according to Bill C and his advanced stats, is this:

• Michigan State is only good in one kind of running situation. The Spartans are 109th in Rushing S&P+ and are pretty bad in every category but one: they're eighth in power success rate. So, while they would probably win most third-and-2 battles against the Sooners, getting to third-and-2 would be an issue.

I think that spells trouble against Bama. I could go on and on about the defense and such but I won't. They're a known commodity. The only way to move the ball on Bama is try your hand downfield. Whether it bounces off a guys head, is self tipped or a guy just goes up and gets it, it's your best chance to score. You have to rely on explosive plays, you just won't be efficient enough to drive it especially with how bad Mich St run game is. The big problem for Cook, as I see it, is he only has one legit target in Burbridge who gets 10 targets a game. I don't think any other player poses much of a threat and Bama has done well against WR1: Erickson 1 for 25, Treadwell 5 for 80 1 TD, Malcolm Mitchell 3 for 65, Drew Morgan 4 for 15 1 TD, Kirk 7 for 90, Pearson 2 for 15, Dural 3 for 25, Ross 8 for 114, Louis 1 for 24. So that's about 4 catches for 50 yards and .20 TD against all of the WR1 of the 9 Power 5 teams they've faced. Of WR2 Wheelright 0 for 0, Stringfellow 2 for 23, Godwin 3 for 30, Reed 3 for 77 1 TD, Seals-Jones 6 for 107 1 TD, Malone 2 for 43, Dupree 1 for 14 1 TD, Wilson 3 for 38, Ray 2 for 6. So WR2 on avg, 2.4 catches for 37.5 yards and .33 TD. In a vacuum, your top 2 options at WR are looking at 6.5 catches, 87.5 yards and .50 TD. That's staggering considering they give up 74 ypg on the ground.

On defense I think Michigan State, like Bama, has advantages. While Mich St has been wildly inconsistent, they are both tough to run on and tough to pass on. The key to success is being stubborn with the run game. That's something Bama can be. Just look at the past two games giving it to Henry 90 times for almost 500 yards. It's no secret Bama has the type of offense that just wears you down in the 2H and Henry heats up the later things go in the game. The Mich St defense has played their best defense as of late, holding opponents to 7, 14, 13 and 16 respectively the last 4. They have plenty of talent on that side of the ball so it's no surprise, maybe it was just a focus thing earlier in the year. The Bama offense isn't one that I think rates to be all that efficient against this defense as 3rd downs continue to be a real issue for them. I think this is something like 27-13 Bama.

 

[CrimsonK]

266 Michigan/Florida UNDER 42.5

National Rankings
Opponent YPG: #3 and #5
Opponent YPP: #4 and #6
Opponent PPG: #5 and #6
Opponent TDpg: #4 and #9
Opponent RUypg: #14 and #17
Opponent YPRU: #11 and #22
Opponent PAypg: #2 and #7
S&P+ Defense: #2 and #5

Offensive PPG: #54 and #98

Florida will be one of the worst offenses Michigan will see all season and Florida will be the best defense they will see. Awesome punters. These two teams are just made for a slugfest here. I think the first team to 13 points wins

 

[Frank Costanza]

I don't know if you'd see 42.5 points between those 2 teams if they played 6 quarters.

 

[CrimsonK]

I don't know if you'd see 42.5 points between those 2 teams if they played 6 quarters.

Haha I'm hoping for no extra quarters

 

[CrimsonK]

262 Clemson +4

 

[TheGarfather]

266 Michigan/Florida UNDER 42.5

National Rankings
Opponent YPG: #3 and #5
Opponent YPP: #4 and #6
Opponent PPG: #5 and #6
Opponent TDpg: #4 and #9
Opponent RUypg: #14 and #17
Opponent YPRU: #11 and #22
Opponent PAypg: #2 and #7
S&P+ Defense: #2 and #5

Offensive PPG: #54 and #98

Florida will be one of the worst offenses Michigan will see all season and Florida will be the best defense they will see. Awesome punters. These two teams are just made for a slugfest here. I think the first team to 13 points wins

I made it 34.5 then reviewed it and move it "all the way up" to 35. I hope I'm not missing something real obvious. The main thing I don't want is a lot of passing. Wouldn't mind it if each team runs with some measure of success.

 

[CrimsonK]

I made it 34.5 then reviewed it and move it "all the way up" to 35. I hope I'm not missing something real obvious. The main thing I don't want is a lot of passing. Wouldn't mind it if each team runs with some measure of success.

I don't think you're missing anything obvious. It's a dead under game on paper but I suppose they gotta actually play em out every now and again. Agree with you on the passing element and would love for both teams to be able to run it. I think Mich is more likely to go away from the run first because they have a competent passer. McElwain had to know going into the game that the chances of them running on Bama were really poor and the first few carries solidified that belief. I would be surprised to see him abandon it so soon here.

 

[Timh]

Crimson BOL on the bowl season, great to see you posting a bowl thread. I really like Alabama under play, Fla under, Stan under and LSU. Great writeups.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks, Tim. Glad to hear you like those as well.

​208 Georgia State +3.5 -115

 

[CrimsonK]

208 Georgia State +3.5

This play is very simple for me. Georgia State is a similar position to Georgia Southern, this will be their program's first ever bowl game. As a team, they showed probably as much improvement over the course of the season as any team in the country. This is a team that lost the opener to UNC-Charlotte but rattled off 4 straight wins, 3 games which were lined similarly to this one and the domination of Georgia Southern as a 3 TD dog to secure their spot in this game. To me, this game looks pretty close to a toss-up on paper, I'd probably actually give GA State a slight edge but where I think they have a huge edge is from a momentum and motivation standpoint. While I would prefer that SJSU was a perennial bowl-goer, their last trip was 2012 so they prob have at least some guys that have played in one before. GAST QB, Nick Arbuckle, is just 95 yards short of breaking the Sunbelt single season total offense record. He is a really good player and playing some of his best football these past few weeks. Got a team playing their best football against a team playing losing football, last 4 and for the season, and the emotion of playing in first bowl and I think getting the points or taking GA St on the ML. Will also be looking at Arbuckle props.

 

[CrimsonK]

262 Clemson +4

I think this game should be a PICK. I wonder if Oklahoma would be playing in the game if they faced healthy QB their last three games of the season. That being said, they are and they didn't. I really wasn't high on Clemson the past few games of the season and really thought there was a good chance they would lose to UNC. I still think there are some depth and injury issues that reared up for them the past few games of the year and we should go back to seeing them play higher quality defense than what they did towards the end of the season with this extra rest. I'll be pretty brief with this, there will be plenty of great reading material from far more intelligent and knowledgeable guys than me in the weeks to come, and it comes down to defense. I trust Clemson's defense far for than I do Oklahoma's although statistically there doesn't appear to be as wide a margin as my eyes tell me when I watch. Again, some healthy QB's the final three and those numbers likely don't look as hot. I think Clemson has a much greater ability to move the ball efficiently against the Sooner defense than I do when the roles are reversed. That being said, Clemson has shown plenty of susceptibility to big plays and that is okay with Oklahoma who seems to be ground ball to short or upper deck homer with the run game. This will be the only game this year where Mayfield won't be the best QB and this will really be, IMO, one of maybe two or three good defenses that the Sooners will face, and I use WVU and Tennessee very lightly when describing good defenses and certainly would say Clemson is a cut or three above both. I think offenses are a wash, maybe slight to OU and Clemson holds a decisive edge defensively and that's what I'm willing to get behind here.

 

[CrimsonK]

267 Notre Dame/Ohio State OVER 53.5

It's the Fiesta Bowl, which pretty much guarantees it will be a fun and high scoring game. I was really impressed with Ohio State in their last game against Michigan. I think they showed the type of team they can be. I like both of these offenses quite a bit more than I like the defenses. That's not to say there aren't an impressive collection of athletes on that side of the ball, I just can't remember coming away from really any game I saw either team play this year (and it wasn't a ton) thinking wow those guys play good defense. A few of the things that make me pause right upfront, as I mentioned, both teams have good athletes on defense and Ohio State especially has shown they can play really solid defense. Granted, I don't think highly of the Michigan schools' offenses and think Notre Dame has a different scheme and is just a far better team with equivalent or better athletes. How this one doesn't win, Ohio State dominates them and we get a 4Q of Zeke pounding. Neither team run a ton of plays or play with a lot of pace but both offenses are efficient (both top 25 in S&P+ efficiency). I like both team's QB ability to create and trust them to value the football. One thing that I've learned as it pertains to Meyer, he is a brilliant offensive coach when you give him this much time to scheme, will be hard to forget the 500+ yards and 42 points they put up against Bama a year ago. I think the same could be said for Kelly in the prep and execution against LSU last season so I like both coaches, especially on offense to have their teams ready. I only had this one lined marginally higher than the 53.5 that I took and if it were at 56.5, it would be a fairly easy pass for me. Being on the right side of several key numbers and what I foresee in movement put me on this one.

 

[CrimsonK]

270 Iowa Stanford UNDER 56.5

Like this one quite a bit and it was gravy getting the hook on top of several key numbers. Iowa just forces you to play their game against them. I remember after one win this season seeing Ferentz interviewed by a sideline reporter (I think it was after the 10-6 win over Wisconsin) and she said something like, "coach you won ugly but you found a way to win yada yada yada". He looked at her and said something to the effect of, "That wasn't ugly to me". I think that sums up Hawkeye football. While Iowa's offense is probably better than they have been over the past 5-7 years, I think it's still a farce and a product of playing some really poor competition. What we saw against Sparty last game, that's who they are, IMO. Iowa faced two defense this season and put up 40 on NW, which is very impressive, and then 13 last week against Sparty. I think it's a lot more likely this game they finish closer to 13 than 40. This game is strength on strength - Cards offense vs Iowa defense. Fortunately, the weakest unit on the field, the Cardinal defense is playing an almost equally as poor unit in the Iowa offense. It's really a dream matchup for an under especially with how inflated the Hawkeye offense was with their schedule and how defense is still very much optional in the PAC 12. Pace will be slow, plays run will be below avg, possessions will be few. Stanford is efficient, they aren't explosive on offense and Iowa doesn't give up big plays due to their scheme and philosophy and they are almost as good as limiting efficiency - they are really good on defense. Both teams would be okay with taking the air out of the ball with a lead and I don't foresee this one getting so lopsided either way that things just go nuts and there are several possessions of vertical passes. This one currently sits at 55.5 and I think I would be comfortable playing it down another full TD.