NCAAF 15/16 Bowl Thread

Armed Forces Bowl:
Bryce Treggs OVER 68.5 receiving yards -120

Russell Athletic Bowl:
KD Cannon OVER 4.5 receptions -120
KD Cannon OVER 77.5 receiving yards -120
Jay Lee OVER 3.5 receptions -120

Alamo Bowl:
Leonard Fournette OVER 188.5 rushing yards -120
 
Final Fanuel of the season. Here are the main teams I've used:

QB V. Adams (Oregon)
RB J Jefferson (Baylor)
RB L Fournette (LSU)
WR K Cannon (Baylor)
WR L Treadwell (Ole Miss)
WR B Addison (Oregon)
TE C Jeter (LSU)

QB J Brissett (NC State)
RB D. Cook (FSU)
RB L Fournette (LSU)
WR B Addison (Oregon)
WR F Ross (Miss St)
WR D Stringfellow (Ole Miss)
TE C Jeter

QB C Kelly (Ole Miss)
RB R Freeman (Oregon)
RB J Robinson (Auburn)
WR B Addison (Oregon)
WR F Ross (Miss St)
WR L Treadwell (Ole Miss)
TE E Engram (Ole Miss)

QB C Bleathard (Iowa)
RB D Cook (FSU)
RB L Fournette (LSU)
WR L Treadwell (Ole Miss)
WR B Addison (Oregon)
WR K Cannon (Baylor)
TE A Cross (Memphis)

Hoping weather ends up being okay in Charlotte.
 
241 Air Force +7

I've seen enough of the option attacks and how they have fared thus far to add this. There are few things I enjoy more than backing a triple option team as a dog, it's really been my most consistent bread butterer over the years. This isnt made without some concerns though, against a super potent passing attack you don't wanna find yourself down early but as long as this doesn't get out of balance early, I think this is a 4Q and one that I think AFA has a very reasonable chance to win, although I hope not because I need a Cal win for my PAC12 bowl bet. Speaking of that, I've been very underwhelmed thus far with the PAC12. Yes, they are 4-1 but there are only 5 quarters of good football I've seen from them out of 20. I said much earlier in the thread I'll either learn and important lesson as it pertains to taking mid 60's triple option totals and going over and it will either be a costly or profitable one and thus far it's been 2 cashes and hoping to see a 3rd here. I know AFA ML would and should be independent from my P12 bet but I'm having a hard time disconnecting from that so decided to take the 7.
 
You picked the right ones to tail, Bones, glad it worked out!

Glad to hear you like em too, P. Them and LSU seem popular
 
Birmingham Bowl:
Ricardo Louis OVER 3.5 receptions -120
Peyton Barber OVER 68.5 rushing yards -120

Belk Bowl:
Dak Prescott OVER 53.5 rushing yards -120
 
well I guess it is when I read wrong...thought your carolina play was on the hova...not on the side.
 
I'm going to pen a letter to the UNC chancellor and athletic director recommending the entire staff resign. That's gotta be right up there with one of the most embarrassing performances I can remember given the circumstances.

Music City Bowl:
J Hubenak OVER 226.5 passing yards -115

Peach Bowl:
Dalvin Cook OVER 1.5 TD -150

257 Houston Total Points UNDER 24.5 -115
 
Outback Bowl:
Clayton Thorson UNDER 14.5 completions -120
Clayton Thorson UNDER 148.5 passing yards -120

Citrus Bowl:
Treon Harris UNDER 180.5 passing yards -120

Rose Bowl:
Christian McCaffery UNDER 148.5 rushing yards -120
 
Outback Bowl:
Jalen Hurd UNDER 120.5 rushing yards -120
Alvin Kamara OVER 78.5 rushing+receiving yards +105
J. Jackson +6.5 rushing yards v. J. Hurd -115

I'm reading multiple reports on the Tennessee message boards that Hurd is a game time decision with some muscle issues. I felt the information was good enough to take a shot on these and I had slight leans that way before reading this info. I thin theyre slightly better than a coin flip if the reports are inaccurate and these are oustanding bets if he is limited and or out. One play for -1 yards will be just fine for me.
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm going to pen a letter to the UNC chancellor and athletic director recommending the entire staff resign. That's gotta be right up there with one of the most embarrassing performances I can remember given the circumstances.
Click to expand...


LOL! I've been motivated to do that many times in the past! Go get em Crimson.
 
Thanks, Marlo. You too bud.

CC, agree. I have looked forward to several lately but for obvious rooting reasons. I think this is a tremendous matchup.

Br@ss - We can file a class action suit or something like that I'm sure we can get support on CTG.
 
Stanford wins 1Q by 1-6 points +700
Iowa wins 1Q by 1-6 points +1020

Been about one play away twice so far this bowl season from hitting +1000's. This time, I get it.
 
cubsker said:
I couldn't find a prop to make this game interesting.
Click to expand...

This is the, "I'm going long on a successful trick play or KO return" prop.

What you think about Hunter Henry O3.5 in the next game? I'm considering him, Morgan and Allen all over on props but I'm a little concerned about the potential of game getting out of balance and they just lean on Collins to pound. Henry at 3.5 and Allen at 262.5 are hard for me to pass on..

There's only 2 TE in the whole Big 12 so I think Henry and Sprinkle could both go off. 3.5 is even less than Henry's avg, which is rare in prop market.

Mayfield 20/27 282 5 TD (55-0)
Rudolph 34/55 437 3/1 (36-34)
Boykin 20/30 301 2/2 (52-45)
Mahomme 33/42 384 3TD (59-44)
Stidham 23/33 419 3TD (31-24)
 
Glad it worked out, I happened to glance at a few plays in the 1h and saw it happen so that was fun. I think the ark qb and OC are incredibly underrated. I'm bummed the Arky ad made a non compete in Enos contract so he can't move laterally within SEC to take coordinator position. Would love him in Bama in 2017 to replace kiffin
 
Alamo Bowl:
Bralon Addison OVER 72.5 receiving yards -115

Since Adams came back healthy: 5 for 78, 6 for 88, 5 for 79, 3 for 32, 5 for 105, 8 for 106. That's an avg of 5.33 and 82 YPG and cashes in 5 of last 6 at this number against 5 bowl teams. He is trending upward and I like the matchup against a TCU defense that takes lots of risks and in turn gives up huge plays. Addison has twice as many targets as their #2. TCU ranks highly in pass defense from an efficiency standpoint but when they break, the really break. 1 of every 8 completions TCU gives up result in a 30+ yard gain. Oregon has plenty of options and bowl season has at times proved that the extra practice times somehow lends itself to that ball getting spread around a bit more and guys stealing touches but I feel good about him ripping off some big plays here.

I like Oregon to win and a win will cash a P12 win bet for me but I think I like them even more in the 1H. There has been a trend I've seen this bowl season and I have attacked it differently, often times getting too cute and not just being direct, when a team is starting a new QB they just take time to get going. Oregon is an outstanding 1H team. According to S&P, they are 19th and 2nd nationally in 1 and 2Q and their defense ranks 62 and 66 compared to 107 and 100 in 3 and 4 Q to go with 28 and 23 on offense. TCU without two best players and maybe they just go Art Briles and pound Oregon into oblivion, I think it's less likely to happen in the 1H against a fresh defense. Statistically there is a major advantage for Oregon in the 2Q in particular and i think that's where they can really distance themselves once the dust settles. I thought about playing them in the 2Q but I prefer to halve the half to get things sorted out as they are the better team and I'm hoping the full 30 helps to show that. TCU seems to adjust well defensively after the half, a Gary Patterson staple, but I think the speed of the Ducks creates issues in the 1H.

​278 Oregon -3.5 1H
 
great writeup!

I'll throw $50 on it to find out haha....

Also have Oregon -1...

Was driving to work at 5:30am when ESPN radio broke the news of Boykin. I pulled over and threw 4 units on Ducks, 30 minutes before coming off the board!
 
TroyStacks said:
great writeup!

I'll throw $50 on it to find out haha....

Also have Oregon -1...

Was driving to work at 5:30am when ESPN radio broke the news of Boykin. I pulled over and threw 4 units on Ducks, 30 minutes before coming off the board!
Click to expand...

Nice grab. For whatever reason I held off on betting them unlike almost everything else I liked, can't even remember my rationale anymore and it got away from me after the injury broke. GL!
 
CrimsonK said:
This is the, "I'm going long on a successful trick play or KO return" prop.

What you think about Hunter Henry O3.5 in the next game? I'm considering him, Morgan and Allen all over on props but I'm a little concerned about the potential of game getting out of balance and they just lean on Collins to pound. Henry at 3.5 and Allen at 262.5 are hard for me to pass on..

There's only 2 TE in the whole Big 12 so I think Henry and Sprinkle could both go off. 3.5 is even less than Henry's avg, which is rare in prop market.

Mayfield 20/27 282 5 TD (55-0)
Rudolph 34/55 437 3/1 (36-34)
Boykin 20/30 301 2/2 (52-45)
Mahomme 33/42 384 3TD (59-44)
Stidham 23/33 419 3TD (31-24)
Click to expand...

I laid off a zillion winners.
 
CrimsonK said:
Alamo Bowl:
Bralon Addison OVER 72.5 receiving yards -115

Since Adams came back healthy: 5 for 78, 6 for 88, 5 for 79, 3 for 32, 5 for 105, 8 for 106. That's an avg of 5.33 and 82 YPG and cashes in 5 of last 6 at this number against 5 bowl teams. He is trending upward and I like the matchup against a TCU defense that takes lots of risks and in turn gives up huge plays. Addison has twice as many targets as their #2. TCU ranks highly in pass defense from an efficiency standpoint but when they break, the really break. 1 of every 8 completions TCU gives up result in a 30+ yard gain. Oregon has plenty of options and bowl season has at times proved that the extra practice times somehow lends itself to that ball getting spread around a bit more and guys stealing touches but I feel good about him ripping off some big plays here.

I like Oregon to win and a win will cash a P12 win bet for me but I think I like them even more in the 1H. There has been a trend I've seen this bowl season and I have attacked it differently, often times getting too cute and not just being direct, when a team is starting a new QB they just take time to get going. Oregon is an outstanding 1H team. According to S&P, they are 19th and 2nd nationally in 1 and 2Q and their defense ranks 62 and 66 compared to 107 and 100 in 3 and 4 Q to go with 28 and 23 on offense. TCU without two best players and maybe they just go Art Briles and pound Oregon into oblivion, I think it's less likely to happen in the 1H against a fresh defense. Statistically there is a major advantage for Oregon in the 2Q in particular and i think that's where they can really distance themselves once the dust settles. I thought about playing them in the 2Q but I prefer to halve the half to get things sorted out as they are the better team and I'm hoping the full 30 helps to show that. TCU seems to adjust well defensively after the half, a Gary Patterson staple, but I think the speed of the Ducks creates issues in the 1H.

​278 Oregon -3.5 1H
Click to expand...

Hugs and kisses! Biggest bet of the last couple days for me, gracias!
 
Welcome guys that went well.

Still ticked they waved off that Addison catch he should be at 71 yards at the break. Good news is he got between 8-10 targets including at least 3 bombs.
 
Heading into Saban Week, things stand at 73-60 (+24.75) I didn't weight any plays that I posted but went 6-2 on my 8 biggest and it was a really great bowl season to this point. Hit a +450, +600 and +650 so that was gratifying. Learned a lot of lessons I had forgotten about how to best approach bowl season and that should help in the year's to come. I'll have some fun and prob look to bet some props for the big game. I crushed the props in the Cotton Bowl and as sick as I feel to say it, would have gone 8-2 had I pushed on the 10 others in that game I was leaning heavy to but passed. Have access to two bad team totals, one of which I bet, the other of which is a good bet but I won't bet because I refuse to violate my heart and bet against Bama's success in this game. In regards to the Clemson TT, I think anything in the 20's is a winner. The other is Bama TT U30, think that's a really nice bet but one I won't be making for the aforementioned reason.

Clemson Team Total UNDER 23 -115
 
Kenyan Drake OVER 28.5 rushing yards -120
Kenyan Drake OVER 2.5 pass receptions -120

Drake's numbers are skewed a bit due to his injury and recovery in the latter part of the season. Prior to his injury against Miss St, he was averaging 7.5 carries per game and 37 yards. In terms of carries, I think his number in this game will be closer to that 7 number and if he gets that, I feel he will get over the number. Drake is a mismatch against most teams and Kiffin just looks for mismatches and exploits as much as he can. Chances are Ridley won't have the type of game he's accustomed to with Alexander likely to shadow him, although Vernon Hargreaves may disagree. I think this game will feature a lot the "role players" for the Bama offense". I actually lean under on all the Ridley and Henry props. Clemson is tough to run against traditionally to the edges and off tackle but has vulnerability up the middle due to their scheme. I don't expect Drake to be the punisher up the middle but I do expect him to get his fair share of jet sweep passes as well as design some misdirection to get him in space against the Clemson LB which is a battle he is almost sure to win. Clemson is a good defense and good run defense but when they give up big plays they're real big plays on the ground and Drake showed last game and throughout his career he is so dynamic he can be that guy. Since coming back, Drake has caught 3 balls each game and averaged 37 ypg on the ground.


Jordan Leggett OVER 2.5 receptions -110

While there is no mistaking that Scott is their guy, this guy is right up there in terms of importance. With running being a losing effort for almost all teams against Bama, I think we will see plenty of passing, especially some shorter stuff across the middle of the field where I would propose Bama is most vulnerable. Leggett averages 2.5 catches per game and in a game where they are likely to have little success on the ground and will be trailing, I like him to potentially be #2 in terms of catches in this game for the Tigers. Clemson isn't a huge threat to hit many home runs but they are very efficient and having him as a big target and matched up against LB is a matchup I'm sure they like.

Ardarius Stewart OVER 4 receptions -120

Stewart is another guy that is gonna get the jet sweep passes and WR bubble screens that are Kiffin staples. Again, with Ridley likely to be a less a factor, I think Stewart is going to need to emerge and step up as he has in the games where Ridley has been less a factor. He avg 4.35 catches per game on just shy of 7 targets. The back half of the season he showed the promise that Bama fans had hoped to see entering the season as he was plagued by some internal issues (rumored) with Coker and their timing and had some untimely drops. Since the Vol game, 5,3,4,4,8,4,7 catches. He will also get some action in the slot and that underneath area is where I see vulnerability for Clemson as well.

Richard Mullaney OVER 2.5 receptions -120

His nickname and twitter handle is 'Slottie Pippen'. As I mentioned above the slot is where I foresee Bama having success in the passing game. This is the 3rd down maker that every QB loves. Extremely sure-handed, save for a drop or two against OM, I can't remember him dropping anything. He has nabbed 3+ catches in 7/14 games and I think his involvement in this game will be expanded. He averages 2.6 per game on just over 4 targets. From what I've read, I think he is likely to see more targets than that and hopefully more catches.
 
Glad to, MW.

Derrick Henry a 23+ yard rush -115

Henry has 10 runs of 29+ yards on the season and has run for a 23+ yarder in 8 games this season. Again, Clemson going to win a fair amount of the rushing plays against Henry but the book on them is when they break down or someone hits a hole, they tend to run for awhile.

Wofford 17
App St 52
Louisville 8 (Before Lamar Jackson*)
Notre Dame 26
GT 14
BC 45
Miami 22
NC St 66
FSU 75
Syr 51
Wake 20
USCe 47
UNC 28
OK 18

These are the long runs of each game that Clemson has allowed. So you can see 8 of their games they surrendered a 23+ yarder. In a game likely to feature 30 carries by Henry, I like the odds of him having at least one explosive play in the run game.
 
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