NCAAF 15/16 Bowl Thread
- Thread starter CrimsonK
- Start date
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
204 BYU/Utah UNDER 54
What an awesome bowl game. When these two meet you can be sure it's going to be both physical and max effort. It's usually a low scoring game that Utah wins but I have some major concerns with their offense. I posted this in another thread but just recently read this statistic, 'Travis Wilson has one last chance to prove that he can complete over 50 percent of his passes when he doesn’t have Devontae Booker standing next to him in the backfield. Wilson is 23-of-52 passing for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception since Booker sustained a season-ending knee injury against Arizona on Nov. 14'. So their passing game has really taken a hit when not having Booker to just pound it. To make matters worse, their top two WR are doubtuful and questionable for the game Saturday. They get roughly 40% of the targets and have 8 of the team's 15 receiving TD for the year. The good news is they are fine with keeping it on the ground and relying on their defense. Their defense is pretty nasty, especially against the run. Oregon ran for 222 and Zona 158, other than that, nobody broke 130 against them. They are a great 3rd down team as it pertains to unders (much like alabama) in that they stink on offense and are good on defense on 3rd. Utah is 4-4-1 against this number to the under against bowlers but the ones you'd imagine would stay under did and those that looked more like shootouts pretty much played out that way.Utah doesn't make big plays and they don't give them up either. I haven't read anything to confirm my suspicion but Kyle Whittingham is an intelligent football coach that has put together the type of team that can and really was sorta built to win this style of game and knowing his personnel limitations will play Kirk Ferentz football. BYU is going to throw it more than I would like on an under bet and I honestly hope they can somehow have a measure of success running in this game. BYU only played 3 defenses this year, Michigan, Missouri and Utah State. They scored 0, 16, 51. My guess is they end up around the median here. BYU defense is pretty good in their own respect, they are top 40 in ypp, ypg, ppp and s&p. I considered playing the 1H as OT is a very real possibility but didn't want to really lose the edge of both teams phenomenal 2H defenses so decided to go full game sitting on a key number. Slight lean to Utah, depending on number because Kyles are far superior to Broncos, their defense is better and they just win this game as Whittingham is 6-3 having won the past 4. 16-13 Utes
What an awesome bowl game. When these two meet you can be sure it's going to be both physical and max effort. It's usually a low scoring game that Utah wins but I have some major concerns with their offense. I posted this in another thread but just recently read this statistic, 'Travis Wilson has one last chance to prove that he can complete over 50 percent of his passes when he doesn’t have Devontae Booker standing next to him in the backfield. Wilson is 23-of-52 passing for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception since Booker sustained a season-ending knee injury against Arizona on Nov. 14'. So their passing game has really taken a hit when not having Booker to just pound it. To make matters worse, their top two WR are doubtuful and questionable for the game Saturday. They get roughly 40% of the targets and have 8 of the team's 15 receiving TD for the year. The good news is they are fine with keeping it on the ground and relying on their defense. Their defense is pretty nasty, especially against the run. Oregon ran for 222 and Zona 158, other than that, nobody broke 130 against them. They are a great 3rd down team as it pertains to unders (much like alabama) in that they stink on offense and are good on defense on 3rd. Utah is 4-4-1 against this number to the under against bowlers but the ones you'd imagine would stay under did and those that looked more like shootouts pretty much played out that way.Utah doesn't make big plays and they don't give them up either. I haven't read anything to confirm my suspicion but Kyle Whittingham is an intelligent football coach that has put together the type of team that can and really was sorta built to win this style of game and knowing his personnel limitations will play Kirk Ferentz football. BYU is going to throw it more than I would like on an under bet and I honestly hope they can somehow have a measure of success running in this game. BYU only played 3 defenses this year, Michigan, Missouri and Utah State. They scored 0, 16, 51. My guess is they end up around the median here. BYU defense is pretty good in their own respect, they are top 40 in ypp, ypg, ppp and s&p. I considered playing the 1H as OT is a very real possibility but didn't want to really lose the edge of both teams phenomenal 2H defenses so decided to go full game sitting on a key number. Slight lean to Utah, depending on number because Kyles are far superior to Broncos, their defense is better and they just win this game as Whittingham is 6-3 having won the past 4. 16-13 Utes
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
You are a freaking machine.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Holy shit....been away from the site for awhile with almost impossible work duties and family stuff, and I come across this. This is a freaking masterpiece. I'm gonna need 2 hours just to digest all the logic and great info in here, and I won't have it until who knows when...maybe tonight.
Awesome job. Thanks for all the work.
Awesome job. Thanks for all the work.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thanks guys, combo of some time off of work and I chose to take the past few seasons off from betting has me excited and invigorated for this bowl season.
240 Minnesota -6
I gave some brief thoughts above when discussing with Cub so I'll try to just keep this short. I think the Minny defense has a chance to really have a great game here. The CMU offense is so reliant on their passing game and that's not going to be advantage Chips against this defense. It's the 80th S&P offense vs the 21st defense and conversely 55th vs 59th when Minny has the ball. Surprisingly, CMU plays really outstanding defense in the 2H of games, I mean statistically at an elite level which is surprising because they are far from an elite group as whole, IMO. They are 5th nationally giving up 7 ppg in the 2H compared to their 74th ranking in 1H scoring defense giving up 16 ppg. Minny 1H is a play I will look at as they are clearly a better 1H team as well, which honestly, a lot of that can be a product of SOS which is where a team like Minny is going to have trouble winning 2H lacking the qulity depth to hang for so long against the cream of the B1G crop. That being said, this is a team that while 5-7, has some close losses to some pretty good teams. 17-23 to TCU, 26-29 to Michigan, 14-28 Ohio State, 35-40 Iowa, 21-31 Wisconsin. Neither team has much in the way of quality wins, both have two wins over bowlers, but in terms of SOS it's not even close - Sagarin has 82 and 47 but to me that seems a lesser disparity than what I see when just glossing over schedules. On offense, I think the Minny passing game rates to have some success moving the football. The disadvantages for the Gophers are less than those for the Chips in this matchup and I believe they will be motivated getting a chance to bowl after a 5 win season which featured a ton of emotional up and downs. Chance for their seniors to get their first bowl win and right the ship after a poorly finished home stretch. I lean under, Minny 1H ATS and have a couple of game and player props I'm targeting specifically in this game so will address those as they become available. 27-17 Gophers
240 Minnesota -6
I gave some brief thoughts above when discussing with Cub so I'll try to just keep this short. I think the Minny defense has a chance to really have a great game here. The CMU offense is so reliant on their passing game and that's not going to be advantage Chips against this defense. It's the 80th S&P offense vs the 21st defense and conversely 55th vs 59th when Minny has the ball. Surprisingly, CMU plays really outstanding defense in the 2H of games, I mean statistically at an elite level which is surprising because they are far from an elite group as whole, IMO. They are 5th nationally giving up 7 ppg in the 2H compared to their 74th ranking in 1H scoring defense giving up 16 ppg. Minny 1H is a play I will look at as they are clearly a better 1H team as well, which honestly, a lot of that can be a product of SOS which is where a team like Minny is going to have trouble winning 2H lacking the qulity depth to hang for so long against the cream of the B1G crop. That being said, this is a team that while 5-7, has some close losses to some pretty good teams. 17-23 to TCU, 26-29 to Michigan, 14-28 Ohio State, 35-40 Iowa, 21-31 Wisconsin. Neither team has much in the way of quality wins, both have two wins over bowlers, but in terms of SOS it's not even close - Sagarin has 82 and 47 but to me that seems a lesser disparity than what I see when just glossing over schedules. On offense, I think the Minny passing game rates to have some success moving the football. The disadvantages for the Gophers are less than those for the Chips in this matchup and I believe they will be motivated getting a chance to bowl after a 5 win season which featured a ton of emotional up and downs. Chance for their seniors to get their first bowl win and right the ship after a poorly finished home stretch. I lean under, Minny 1H ATS and have a couple of game and player props I'm targeting specifically in this game so will address those as they become available. 27-17 Gophers
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Another one you might want to look at, not sure if this is posted at the offshores, but I found it at a local who I assume is ripping their lines off of somebody. Lowest scoring bowl game under 33.5 pts. We have even more games this year and this would win every year the last five years, freq more than once per year. Looking at just a game like Fla/Mich with a total of 40.5, we prob have a 25% chance just right there. Add in about ten other games with a chance at this number and I think it's a pretty easy bet.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Ya, that's a good find, I've found some good offscreen stuff like that too. 5dimes has 37.5 but under is -300. Think you found a really solid one there. There are some interesting ones i've seen offshore, Any player OVER 252.5 rushing yards and over is -210, lol. I'll pass and just take Fournette OVER at 75 yards less and better juice when that's available. I didn't dig too deep but no one else is gonna come close to that, I wouldn't think unless Kiffin turns Coker loose to use his wheels on the zone read. Thought about going under on that and then over when Lenny prop comes out and just hoping he goes for 220 but I actually like him to rush for over 250 so I can't justify that. Also there is a passing prop, Most passing yards by QB under 532 -160, pretty sure in my limited research I did that Goff is only guy that did that and went 542 last game and Falk has gone over 500 couple times but not over that number, Doughty won't get there against USF, Mahomme won't against LSU, Johnson won't against GSU. I will prob pass on it although I do think there is an edge, I wouldn't be mad of Arbucle went for 600 Saturday.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
235 Nebraska/UCLA OVER 61
Full disclosure, if this was the regular season, I likely wouldn't play this game. It's a small perceived edge, IMO. It is a pretty high upside game though. I don't like the Nebraska defense. Advanced stats have them as 116th nationally in giving up explosive plays. Nebraska doesn't sack the QB very often and I think that spells trouble if one is expecting their secondary to stay with an athletic WR group for UCLA. While some of the shine is off of Rosen after his bonanza start to the season against UVA, I think he is poised to have a really good game here. Just in terms of defensive passing YPG, Nebraska ranks 121st. Nebraska is really good against the run but I think it will be a primarily air assault from UCLA who trend a little bit towards being pass heavier at 52/48 but have shown in some games they will just commit to chucking it, 7 games with 35+ attempts and I see no reason why we won't see around 40+ from him here, given the advantages, assuming they run 75.Both teams are 31st and 38th in pass play% per game and pace should be good for an over, plays per game and both team's tendencies to throw on early downs. I am pretty confident UCLA should have plenty of offensive success. The kicker is Nebraska and more importantly, Armstrong. They are gonna go as he goes. Last game against Iowa, they really could/should have won if he would have valued the football more. They outgained Iowa by almost 200 yards and put up 400+ yards on a terrific defense. Tommy just threw 4 pics along the way. Nebraska is pretty good both running and throwing it and I think that even against a very talented UCLA defense, that could have been real nasty had the injury bug not bit them in the way it did, and this just feels like a shootout to me. So while a 27-20 type game wouldn't shock me I see this in my mind's eye just playing out as a fun last team that has it wins game. A few concerns, I'm relying heavily on big plays, I'm relying on Armstrong to either have a clean game or a really messy game creating easy scores and UCLA OC Noel Mazzone was hospitalized this week and it's unknown whether he will be back to coach the bowl game. This game to me is more a gut game than one the numbers just support big time. There are some very promising elements but this isn't one of my stronger selections, I wouldn't say. I'll go 35-28 UCLA
Full disclosure, if this was the regular season, I likely wouldn't play this game. It's a small perceived edge, IMO. It is a pretty high upside game though. I don't like the Nebraska defense. Advanced stats have them as 116th nationally in giving up explosive plays. Nebraska doesn't sack the QB very often and I think that spells trouble if one is expecting their secondary to stay with an athletic WR group for UCLA. While some of the shine is off of Rosen after his bonanza start to the season against UVA, I think he is poised to have a really good game here. Just in terms of defensive passing YPG, Nebraska ranks 121st. Nebraska is really good against the run but I think it will be a primarily air assault from UCLA who trend a little bit towards being pass heavier at 52/48 but have shown in some games they will just commit to chucking it, 7 games with 35+ attempts and I see no reason why we won't see around 40+ from him here, given the advantages, assuming they run 75.Both teams are 31st and 38th in pass play% per game and pace should be good for an over, plays per game and both team's tendencies to throw on early downs. I am pretty confident UCLA should have plenty of offensive success. The kicker is Nebraska and more importantly, Armstrong. They are gonna go as he goes. Last game against Iowa, they really could/should have won if he would have valued the football more. They outgained Iowa by almost 200 yards and put up 400+ yards on a terrific defense. Tommy just threw 4 pics along the way. Nebraska is pretty good both running and throwing it and I think that even against a very talented UCLA defense, that could have been real nasty had the injury bug not bit them in the way it did, and this just feels like a shootout to me. So while a 27-20 type game wouldn't shock me I see this in my mind's eye just playing out as a fun last team that has it wins game. A few concerns, I'm relying heavily on big plays, I'm relying on Armstrong to either have a clean game or a really messy game creating easy scores and UCLA OC Noel Mazzone was hospitalized this week and it's unknown whether he will be back to coach the bowl game. This game to me is more a gut game than one the numbers just support big time. There are some very promising elements but this isn't one of my stronger selections, I wouldn't say. I'll go 35-28 UCLA
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
I could only have Minny. Not sure what's going on there from a coaching perspective, so that may be something to read up about.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
was looking at some of those as well. Here's what I have:
[TABLE="class: table_lines, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, colspan: 6, align: left"][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: trGameTime"]
[TD="align: left"]Props are for all 41 Bowls including Championship Game - Most passing yards by any quarterback in any single game[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_pair, bgcolor: #EBEBEB"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19057
Most Passing Yards
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L1_25" id="L1_25" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L1_25">o525½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_pair, bgcolor: #EBEBEB"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19058
By any QB
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L2_25" id="L2_25" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L2_25">u525½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, colspan: 6, align: left"][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: trGameTime"]
[TD="width: 90"] 01:00p CT [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Props are for all 41 Bowls including Championship Game - Most touchdown passes by any quarterback in any single game[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_noun"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19059
Most TD Passes
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L1_26" id="L1_26" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L1_26">o5½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_noun"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19060
By any QB
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L2_26" id="L2_26" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L2_26">u5½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, colspan: 6, align: left"][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: trGameTime"]
[TD="width: 90"] 01:00p CT [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Props are for all 41 Bowls including Championship Game - Most rushing yards by any player in any single game[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_pair, bgcolor: #EBEBEB"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19061
Most Rushing Yards
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L1_27" id="L1_27" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L1_27">o252½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_pair, bgcolor: #EBEBEB"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19062
By any player
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L2_27" id="L2_27" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L2_27">u252½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, colspan: 6, align: left"][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: trGameTime"]
[TD="width: 90"] 01:00p CT [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Props are for all 41 Bowls including Championship Game - Most receiving yards by any player in any single game[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: trGameTime, bgcolor: #2B577D, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_noun"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19065
Most Receiving Yards
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L1_28" id="L1_28" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L1_28">o214½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: offering_noun"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]19066
By any player
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] <input name="L2_28" id="L2_28" size="4" maxlength="6" style="font-family: 'Lucida Console'; font-size: 12px; width: 40px;"> <label for="L2_28">u214½ (-115)</label>[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
253 Louisville PICK
Similar to the OVER 48 in this game, I'm not going to spend anytime on this write up either. Pretty much all I did on both was grabbed a number that I felt wouldn't be around for long. I liked Louisville from the time I saw their matchup and even more so now that aTm is falling apart.
Similar to the OVER 48 in this game, I'm not going to spend anytime on this write up either. Pretty much all I did on both was grabbed a number that I felt wouldn't be around for long. I liked Louisville from the time I saw their matchup and even more so now that aTm is falling apart.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
244 North Carolina +3
I don't think I wrote anything on this game either. It is really silly that Baylor is favored with their 3rd string QB who is actually a WR. North Carolina, while they won' be confused for a defensive juggernaut, are better than Baylor no matter what any numbers say. Chizik has plenty of time to prep for an offense with a WR playing QB that was concussed and knocked out last game and surely won't be asked to do a bunch of zone read. If UNC manages to lose this, that would be far more embarrassing than the opening loss to USCe. Just imagine your favorite team deciding a WR, even one who played QB in high school, was going to start the bowl game against a power 5 division champion, could you favor them?? 45-28 Heels
I don't think I wrote anything on this game either. It is really silly that Baylor is favored with their 3rd string QB who is actually a WR. North Carolina, while they won' be confused for a defensive juggernaut, are better than Baylor no matter what any numbers say. Chizik has plenty of time to prep for an offense with a WR playing QB that was concussed and knocked out last game and surely won't be asked to do a bunch of zone read. If UNC manages to lose this, that would be far more embarrassing than the opening loss to USCe. Just imagine your favorite team deciding a WR, even one who played QB in high school, was going to start the bowl game against a power 5 division champion, could you favor them?? 45-28 Heels
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
219 Georgia Southern/Bowling Green OVER 66
Above is my write up on why I like GA Southern. As you can see, I see it being a shootout and decided to add the total too which for some weird reason I often hesitate to do. I'm now officially playing 3 of the 4 option teams over a mid-60's total. Will either be a good learning lesson for me or they will live up to their potentials and be some super fun shootouts.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
230 Southern Miss/Washington UNDER 28.5 1H
Lines up with my full game play, the numbers even support this play more though than full game which I really like. S&P rankings, Q1 103o/48d 87o/23d, Q2 71o/15d 46o/21d. S Miss averages a 1H scoreline of 18-11 and Washington 13-11, compared to 2H's of 22-15 and 15-9. This is a bad number too, no reason the hook should be on this, but I appreciate that it is.
Lines up with my full game play, the numbers even support this play more though than full game which I really like. S&P rankings, Q1 103o/48d 87o/23d, Q2 71o/15d 46o/21d. S Miss averages a 1H scoreline of 18-11 and Washington 13-11, compared to 2H's of 22-15 and 15-9. This is a bad number too, no reason the hook should be on this, but I appreciate that it is.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Found more playoff props. Having a feast.
Orange Bowl:
Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 rushing yards -120
Cotton Bowl:
Connor Cook UNDER 21.5 completions -130
Connor Cook UNDER 36.5 pass attempts -120
Connor Cook UNDER 247.5 passing yards -120
Connor Cook UNDER 1.5 TD passes +100
Orange Bowl:
Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 rushing yards -120
Cotton Bowl:
Connor Cook UNDER 21.5 completions -130
Connor Cook UNDER 36.5 pass attempts -120
Connor Cook UNDER 247.5 passing yards -120
Connor Cook UNDER 1.5 TD passes +100
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
New Mexico Bowl:
Anu Solomon OVER 19.5 completions -120
Anu Solomon OVER 275.5 passing yards -120
Jhurell Pressley OVER 76.5 rushing yards -120
Arizona/New Mexico Longest TD OVER 60.5 yards -115
Las Vegas Bowl:
Travis Wilson UNDER 17.5 completions -120
Kenneth Scott OVER 36.5 receiving yards -120
BYU/Utah Longest TD UNDER 47.5 -115
Cure Bowl:
Nick Arbuckle OVER 328.5 yards passing -120
New Orleans Bowl:
Trent Taylor OVER 94.5 receiving yards -120
Ark State/La Tech Longest TD OVER 62.5 yards -115
Anu Solomon OVER 19.5 completions -120
Anu Solomon OVER 275.5 passing yards -120
Jhurell Pressley OVER 76.5 rushing yards -120
Arizona/New Mexico Longest TD OVER 60.5 yards -115
Las Vegas Bowl:
Travis Wilson UNDER 17.5 completions -120
Kenneth Scott OVER 36.5 receiving yards -120
BYU/Utah Longest TD UNDER 47.5 -115
Cure Bowl:
Nick Arbuckle OVER 328.5 yards passing -120
New Orleans Bowl:
Trent Taylor OVER 94.5 receiving yards -120
Ark State/La Tech Longest TD OVER 62.5 yards -115
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
208 Georgia State Total Points OVER 27 -115
Here are a couple cash FD lineups I played for tomorrow too, in case anyone is interested:
QB Arbuckle
RB J Baker
RB K Dixon
WR P Hart
WR T Taylor
WR C Jones
TE B Freeman
QB A Solomon
RB K Dixon
RB T Ervin
WR T Taylor
WR C Jones
WR S McElfresh
TE B Freeman
Here are a couple cash FD lineups I played for tomorrow too, in case anyone is interested:
QB Arbuckle
RB J Baker
RB K Dixon
WR P Hart
WR T Taylor
WR C Jones
TE B Freeman
QB A Solomon
RB K Dixon
RB T Ervin
WR T Taylor
WR C Jones
WR S McElfresh
TE B Freeman
bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Welcome, marlo. That was about the only easy thing, when Utah had 35 points on 65 yards offense I had a sneaking suspicion it was gonna be a long day. Ga St was my only bad handicapping though so hopefully get it back on track.
212 South Florida Total Points OVER 32 -110
212 South Florida +3 -125
I had done everything I could to lay off backing USF but just couldn't anymore. This is normally a spot where I play the ML as opposed to paying more for a 3 but I keep feeling a check so rolling with a little different approach.
212 South Florida Total Points OVER 32 -110
212 South Florida +3 -125
I had done everything I could to lay off backing USF but just couldn't anymore. This is normally a spot where I play the ML as opposed to paying more for a 3 but I keep feeling a check so rolling with a little different approach.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
211 WKU/USF OVER 33.5 1H
Big numbers to support 1H being the higher scoring half. WKU #1 in country averaging 28.3 points scored in the 1H and USF is #41 averaging 17.2, however that doesn't equate for them figuring out their offense about halfway through the year, they've averaged 35.3 points scored in 1H and WKU is at 30.3 their last 3. If you're keeping score, that's good for #1 and #2 nationally in the past 3 game span. USF is nasty in the 1H defensively so that is my biggest concern, they are 3rd nationally only giving up 7 points and WKU is slightly above average in 1H defense giving up 11. Enough value here at this number to get involved, second biggest concern is playing in a weirdish stadium where it appears there may be some wind but not sure how that will impact play.
Big numbers to support 1H being the higher scoring half. WKU #1 in country averaging 28.3 points scored in the 1H and USF is #41 averaging 17.2, however that doesn't equate for them figuring out their offense about halfway through the year, they've averaged 35.3 points scored in 1H and WKU is at 30.3 their last 3. If you're keeping score, that's good for #1 and #2 nationally in the past 3 game span. USF is nasty in the 1H defensively so that is my biggest concern, they are 3rd nationally only giving up 7 points and WKU is slightly above average in 1H defense giving up 11. Enough value here at this number to get involved, second biggest concern is playing in a weirdish stadium where it appears there may be some wind but not sure how that will impact play.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Man this is a really tough game to figure. USF has probably improved as much as anyone during the course of the season. But then WKY is so good on offense at 7.1 ypp (#2) and 9.4 ypa (#5). Their OL has done a great job pass blocking in all the games I have watched and Doughty has been so good at picking up secondary receivers. USF though could come out and really establish that running game and burn a lot of clock, but then on the other hand if they fall behind I'm not sure I like their offense to have the ability to score quickly or have to go to more throwing. This is a tough one for sure, but should be a great game to watch.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Agree Tim it's going to be great. I am not gonna be able to see it live but will prob watch the replay later tonight.
Marlon Mack OVER 110.5 rushing yards -115
Doesn't look like I'm gonna get anything better than that.
Gonna push one more perceived edge:
South Florida total points OVER 16 1H
Marlon Mack OVER 110.5 rushing yards -115
Doesn't look like I'm gonna get anything better than that.
Gonna push one more perceived edge:
South Florida total points OVER 16 1H
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
May join you on that TT. Little tide bit that is often overlooked, USF has one of the better place kickers in the nation. In a game that is perceived to be hotly contested, this could be a deciding factor. Love me some FG kickers.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Good info, didn't they have another Groza award level kicker back when Leavitt had them elite? I remember the QB whose name escapes me had a huge number of CTGers convinced he was throwing games.
Tim I'm on my phone so it's too difficult to properly respond but I would disagree about USF offense not being equipped to catch up. In a lot of ways, their offense is exactly what LSU should be given their personnel. If you go back and watch any of that game it was Harris' mobility in the pocket and behind the line which led to some deep strikes to their big and athletic WR. I see a lot of similarities except Flowers is a superior athlete. I just read an article on Taggert and how they have gotten this offense humming the way it is. They realized that Flowers was a wasted talent running the type of offense Tag would prefer so he adjusted. He asked Flowers to draw up plays he ran in high school that he liked. They catered the playbook to what he does well and the results have been outstanding. Same thing that Rivera and Shula did with Cam and the antithesis of what Shannahan has done with Matt Ryan. That's good coaching and while Flowers prob won't make all the throws Doughty will, actually he definitely won't, I do see them having a good bit of success in vertical routes and even some jump ball scenarios. I don't envy either teams safeties this game
Tim I'm on my phone so it's too difficult to properly respond but I would disagree about USF offense not being equipped to catch up. In a lot of ways, their offense is exactly what LSU should be given their personnel. If you go back and watch any of that game it was Harris' mobility in the pocket and behind the line which led to some deep strikes to their big and athletic WR. I see a lot of similarities except Flowers is a superior athlete. I just read an article on Taggert and how they have gotten this offense humming the way it is. They realized that Flowers was a wasted talent running the type of offense Tag would prefer so he adjusted. He asked Flowers to draw up plays he ran in high school that he liked. They catered the playbook to what he does well and the results have been outstanding. Same thing that Rivera and Shula did with Cam and the antithesis of what Shannahan has done with Matt Ryan. That's good coaching and while Flowers prob won't make all the throws Doughty will, actually he definitely won't, I do see them having a good bit of success in vertical routes and even some jump ball scenarios. I don't envy either teams safeties this game
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Excellent points on adjusting SF offense. Admittedly I am probably putting more stock in watching USF earlier (MD game) where Flowers really looked uncomfortable throwing the ball. Seems like he would be excellent on some bootleg action off the run fakes, throwing to the TE. Something easy to get him going and elevate his confidence. I agree that Flowers is dangerous for sure, from the aspect of being able to create more time and extend plays and he certainly has the arm to get the ball downfield.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Gramatica brothers were USF kickers I believe. Nix the info on the current kicker. He left last year. Current kicker is average at best.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
one to check out...
doughty against decent teams:
vandy 209 yds
la tech 441 yds
indiana 484 yds
middle tenn 359 yds
lsu 325 yds (on 61 att)
marshall 370 yds
so miss 410 yds
def think they tend to throw more against better teams. not running out the clock and they aren't as successful on the ground against those teams. I like Doughty over 366.5 passing
doughty against decent teams:
vandy 209 yds
la tech 441 yds
indiana 484 yds
middle tenn 359 yds
lsu 325 yds (on 61 att)
marshall 370 yds
so miss 410 yds
def think they tend to throw more against better teams. not running out the clock and they aren't as successful on the ground against those teams. I like Doughty over 366.5 passing
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
According to CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler, Western Kentucky senior TE Tyler Higbee has the "soft hands and the fluid athleticism to be a threat after the catch."
Brugler highlights Higbee as one to watch in Monday's Miami Beach Bowl showdown with South Florida, but whether the 6-foot-6, 250-pound senior even plays in the contest comes down to a game-time decision. He's currently dealing with a re-aggravated knee injury suffered against Southern Miss in the Conference USA Championship Game. Health aside, Higbee's caught 38 passes for 563 yards and eight touchdowns during the 2015 campaign. Brugler called him "unpolished as a route runner," but thinks a strong bowl performance could serve as a potential draft booster. Dec 20 - 4:23 PM
Source: CBS Sports
Brugler highlights Higbee as one to watch in Monday's Miami Beach Bowl showdown with South Florida, but whether the 6-foot-6, 250-pound senior even plays in the contest comes down to a game-time decision. He's currently dealing with a re-aggravated knee injury suffered against Southern Miss in the Conference USA Championship Game. Health aside, Higbee's caught 38 passes for 563 yards and eight touchdowns during the 2015 campaign. Brugler called him "unpolished as a route runner," but thinks a strong bowl performance could serve as a potential draft booster. Dec 20 - 4:23 PM
Source: CBS Sports
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Nice one, Cub. That was a great bet and a great recall on Grothe!
Another disappointing result for me. My game day additions have been poor and don't wanna push too much. Crushed the numbers again so far on both total tomorrow and they really both should finish under the total unless they go Holy War style so I'll just leave those alone.
I'm bailing on a play for Wednesday or at least attempting to. Weather is gonna be nasty in Mobile. I added more to Ga Southern +7.5, added them ML and played the under larger than original at 65 to go along with my over at 66. Possible tornadoes coming through there, good for option team really awful for BGSU and the OVER.
220 Georgia Southern/BGSU UNDER 65
220 Georgia Southern ML +250
Another disappointing result for me. My game day additions have been poor and don't wanna push too much. Crushed the numbers again so far on both total tomorrow and they really both should finish under the total unless they go Holy War style so I'll just leave those alone.
I'm bailing on a play for Wednesday or at least attempting to. Weather is gonna be nasty in Mobile. I added more to Ga Southern +7.5, added them ML and played the under larger than original at 65 to go along with my over at 66. Possible tornadoes coming through there, good for option team really awful for BGSU and the OVER.
220 Georgia Southern/BGSU UNDER 65
220 Georgia Southern ML +250
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Follow my late adds with caution, found two numbers with an out that really aren't lining up and both follow my thought that this should be really ugly. It looks like snow is about to stop in Boise from what I can tell but we're looking at temps in mid 30's.
213 Akron Total Points UNDER 20 -115
214 Utah State Total Points UNDER 27 -115
213 Akron Total Points UNDER 20 -115
214 Utah State Total Points UNDER 27 -115
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