Same to you brotha!
QQ - Do you ever buy-out of Bowl positions that move against you too much? Or does it depend on the legs behind the steam (i.e. opt-out news vs. pick service steam, etc.)?
Buy OUT of MY positions? > you can't be serious !
haha
Truth be told - I'm too dumb of a math guy to hedge/buy out of anything really. I usually put in the work - stick with what my research suggests.....
>> but sure in bowls I do it sometimes, but probably not enough - NEVER from the movement alone / someone else's opinion- plus in bowls, dumb money can move lines.
Injuries - late opt outs - the dreaded late OPT BACK IN .... weather. Last year I should have bought out QUICKLY of my S Alabama bet - when WKU POOF! not only shows up with a buncha damn guys that weren't supposed to be there, but looked like 2019 LSU ......DUMB.
A really smart guy with the time / brain power should really be ready to buy out of (most) every bet. That ain't me, but here's a few....
Boise - QB wasn't really that good, BUT freshman might be in over his head. If so, and their OL can't protect - they're struggling to run, and allowing penetration - I might look to play UCLA live/2H - probably smaller than what I've risked on Boise (1.25 units or so). Boise bet is based on a UCLA no show mostly.
Ga St - small bet, bet I wasn't expecting all the opt outs for GSU. If it's minus 20 and snowing > Utah St it is probably
Miami, O - another QB that no way in hell should have entered the portal (with Boise guy) - I like Miami here tho, esp. getting 7 - but App St might have an athletic / speed edge - new QB might not be ready to play. I don't think he'll be asked to do much, but if ASU is moving the ball, Miami might not be able to keep up.
$$
The great thing about bowls is that a teams level of play seldom changes once a game begins. Practically NEVER in the
early bowls. Meaning if UCLA is kicking Boise's ass early - Boise won't POOF! just magically take over in the 2H. The one exception is if they have a dominant player - usually the QB of course, PLAYING IN HIS FINAL GAME. OR a coach, his final game.
>> Like IF C Williams or Sam Hartman were playing
eg. this year - UTSA!!! - NIU (maybe) - Ga St (maybe) - SJSU (maybe) - WYOMING (HC) - OREGON !!!!!!!!
* IF Liberty somehow is dominating Oregon early - Bo Nix looks terrible - immediately borrow cash - put your old lady on the street - pimp out your dog, whatever - bet Oregon large to come back and win (not necessarily cover)- same with UTSA (Dr Frank Harris). To a lesser degree Rocky Lombardi - Darren Grainger - C Cordeiro.
QB's with long and/or distinguished careers will play their butt off to go out on a high note.