NCAAF 15/16 Bowl Thread

216 Toledo/Temple UNDER 53

Temple is a dead under team to me and I think Toledo's offensive numbers are a tad (ton) inflated due to no team on their schedule playing defense. I'm not sure where to find the stats or metrics of total defenses faced but Toledo would have to be right up there with having played some really bad ones. I know Temple can play defense, they've done it against the big boys this season. Toledo plays faster than what I'd consider ideal at this number but Temple is about average and won't shy away from grinding with the ground game. Toledo has played progressively worse defense as the season has gone on but I am very comfortable giving them a pass the past couple against BGSU and WMU. I think that sets up things well for a total that I think is a bit high. Should be lot of running clock

221 MTSU/WMU OVER 60.5

Thought about writing it up, felt better saying this: This game should play like the NFL pro bowl of the 2015 bowl season. Two teams with good passers, good catchers and not many tacklers. It's being played in the Bahamas, on Christmas Eve. Used to be the Hawaii bowl that just brought in teams that would go nuts and light up the scoreboard but with this matchup, they may be stealing the show.
 
If the Bahama Bowl is anything like last year, I might be calling this my favorite Bowl game and a bucket list trip.
 
wiseplayer said:
If the Bahama Bowl is anything like last year, I might be calling this my favorite Bowl game and a bucket list trip.
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I think it's gonna be that kind of game. If you get tix, make it a pair and I'll join ya. I hear the Bahamas are nice this time of year.

​231 Indiana -1.5
 
Thanks for the write-up. Do you lean towards a side in this game? Sounds like Iowa.

I'm interested in seeing Stan getting another shot against the B1G. They didn't fare so well the first time around.

CrimsonK said:
270 Iowa Stanford UNDER 56.5

Like this one quite a bit and it was gravy getting the hook on top of several key numbers. Iowa just forces you to play their game against them. I remember after one win this season seeing Ferentz interviewed by a sideline reporter (I think it was after the 10-6 win over Wisconsin) and she said something like, "coach you won ugly but you found a way to win yada yada yada". He looked at her and said something to the effect of, "That wasn't ugly to me". I think that sums up Hawkeye football. While Iowa's offense is probably better than they have been over the past 5-7 years, I think it's still a farce and a product of playing some really poor competition. What we saw against Sparty last game, that's who they are, IMO. Iowa faced two defense this season and put up 40 on NW, which is very impressive, and then 13 last week against Sparty. I think it's a lot more likely this game they finish closer to 13 than 40. This game is strength on strength - Cards offense vs Iowa defense. Fortunately, the weakest unit on the field, the Cardinal defense is playing an almost equally as poor unit in the Iowa offense. It's really a dream matchup for an under especially with how inflated the Hawkeye offense was with their schedule and how defense is still very much optional in the PAC 12. Pace will be slow, plays run will be below avg, possessions will be few. Stanford is efficient, they aren't explosive on offense and Iowa doesn't give up big plays due to their scheme and philosophy and they are almost as good as limiting efficiency - they are really good on defense. Both teams would be okay with taking the air out of the ball with a lead and I don't foresee this one getting so lopsided either way that things just go nuts and there are several possessions of vertical passes. This one currently sits at 55.5 and I think I would be comfortable playing it down another full TD.
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CrimsonK said:
262 Clemson +4

I think this game should be a PICK. I wonder if Oklahoma would be playing in the game if they faced healthy QB their last three games of the season. That being said, they are and they didn't. I really wasn't high on Clemson the past few games of the season and really thought there was a good chance they would lose to UNC. I still think there are some depth and injury issues that reared up for them the past few games of the year and we should go back to seeing them play higher quality defense than what they did towards the end of the season with this extra rest. I'll be pretty brief with this, there will be plenty of great reading material from far more intelligent and knowledgeable guys than me in the weeks to come, and it comes down to defense. I trust Clemson's defense far for than I do Oklahoma's although statistically there doesn't appear to be as wide a margin as my eyes tell me when I watch. Again, some healthy QB's the final three and those numbers likely don't look as hot. I think Clemson has a much greater ability to move the ball efficiently against the Sooner defense than I do when the roles are reversed. That being said, Clemson has shown plenty of susceptibility to big plays and that is okay with Oklahoma who seems to be ground ball to short or upper deck homer with the run game. This will be the only game this year where Mayfield won't be the best QB and this will really be, IMO, one of maybe two or three good defenses that the Sooners will face, and I use WVU and Tennessee very lightly when describing good defenses and certainly would say Clemson is a cut or three above both. I think offenses are a wash, maybe slight to OU and Clemson holds a decisive edge defensively and that's what I'm willing to get behind here.
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Agree with your thoughts. My PR actually have Clemson favored. It amazes me (or maybe not) that nobody in the media mentions the opposing QB situation for OU's last three games. People love to pan on Alabama's schedule, much of it accurate, but since the loss to Texas, OU played 4 teams ranked over 100 in defensive ypp, and then played backups or 3rd string QBs in their last three tough games. I still think OU is a pretty good team, and I've been high on them since August (thus my OU futures), but I see nothing that clearly separates them from any other team in the top 8-10. I'm going to watch the line for a while before I bet Clemson though. Think we could see it go up
 
phife said:
Thanks for the write-up. Do you lean towards a side in this game? Sounds like Iowa.

I'm interested in seeing Stan getting another shot against the B1G. They didn't fare so well the first time around.
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You're welcome. Ya, I think Iowa would be the only side for me in this game. I don't think that we will see the number I would want though to probably get involved (7 or 7'). Maybe if one of the big bowl season magazines or a big name service releases Stanford then it could happen but it appears to be shading closer to 6. If it goes over, I'd say there is a better than average chance Stanford covers and if it stays under I would say it is extremely likely that Iowa covers. Very hard for me to envision a scenario where Stanford covers and it stays under. I see lot of correlation in this game in that regard. I agree with Stanford being the favorite it's just a little rich for me and honestly I cannot remember a single time in thousands of bets that I've gone against Iowa as a dog.
 
gps_3 said:
Agree with your thoughts. My PR actually have Clemson favored. It amazes me (or maybe not) that nobody in the media mentions the opposing QB situation for OU's last three games. People love to pan on Alabama's schedule, much of it accurate, but since the loss to Texas, OU played 4 teams ranked over 100 in defensive ypp, and then played backups or 3rd string QBs in their last three tough games. I still think OU is a pretty good team, and I've been high on them since August (thus my OU futures), but I see nothing that clearly separates them from any other team in the top 8-10. I'm going to watch the line for a while before I bet Clemson though. Think we could see it go up
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Ya I agree with almost all of this in regards to Okie but I do think +4 will be as good as we are likely to see. Like I mentioned above, if Dr Bob or Northcoast or someone with market influence released a big play on Okie I could be wrong but it's equally as likely they take Clemson so I do my best to estimate which way it's moving but it's certainly not an exact science.
 
228 Washington State -2.5

This is a fun game to just let me imagination run wild for what the lead up to the game could present. Could a Miami player get into a battle with Bandidos at the border of El paso and Juarez? Will it come out that half the Miami defense is in business with the cartel in Juarez and the feds bust them as they're hoisting glasses two nights before the game? Will a Miami quality control coach get caught Mike Pricing? The possibilities are endless. I can't predict with tons of accuracy which players may do something dumb but something in my gut tells me focus may not be great for either team and maybe it's a stereotype but I get the sense that Miami may struggle a bit more.

Washington State was an interesting team this year and one that I think was misunderstood by oddsmakers and statisticians alike. Wins over Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA. There are some teams playing in big name bowls that don't have that resume. The ACC isn't highly thought of by oddsmakers, dogs in 7 of 9 I believe, and I can't say my opinion differs too much. I think it's easy to look at the turnaround Scott got these players to do but the wins that they came up with aren't over any teams that I'm really impressed by. I think Wash St presents such a different look than what Miami has seen this season while what Miami does there will be plenty of tape to find similarities and will be easier to emulate. I really like Leach with this much time to prepare and don't think the coaching turnover at Miami is doing anyone any favors. Defenses are similar from a numbers standpoint but offense is where I think Wazzou will do what they want, both running and throwing. I like the Miami QB too and think he will have success I just don't think they can be counted on to consistently move up and down the field the same way I see Wazzou being able to. One area that Richt has said he plans to change is to move from the 3-4 back to the 4-3 but that won't be done overnight, it will take a couple recruiting cycles. I don't think the Miami LB are going to be able to do their job well in this game as they have gone with size but don't necessarily have the size and speed of say an Alabama that runs the 3-4 and has had to adapt to the spread principles. Leach is back in Texas, bowls are a big deal for a program that doesn't go to many and I think there will be a lot of focus from Wazzou who is the better team and should have lot of offensive success.
 
231 Indiana -1.5

Major motivation from Indiana who hasn't been bowling in 8 years. Recently read an article about how the 2012 recruiting class stepped on campus with the goal to turn the IU program around and a measurable goal they had was to to go bowling. Here they are and boast the best offense in the conference to boot. Really like what I've been reading from their seniors in regards to this game and accomplishing their goals they set four years ago. To me, that kind of stuff is invaluable in bowl games. Duke is a regular now in bowl games, every player on their squad has gone bowling each year they've been at Duke aside from RS Seniors. Quite a testament to Cutcliffe. Unfortunately, his Duke legacy doesn't include winning much in the post-season. To his credit, they have been overmatched in most of those games and this is actually a much more winnable game. The Duke offense is worse than the Hoosier defense and that's a rarity when playing IU. I also love the fact that Duke is limping in with just a win over Wake since mid-October. IU won their last two to get here after a really tough stretch midseason including 1 score losses to Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan. These guys have showed they can score on just about anybody and have great senior leadership under center. Love the matchups, momentum and motivation here for IU when just asking them to win. Duke has played really poor football all season and it's a miracle they are in this game so hoping they don't have another horseshoe here - if they don't I think they get whipped.
 
I don't really see indy stopping duke. now, the converse is prob true also but having watched a ton of indy and having backed them seemingly every week, duke will go up and down the field on them.
 
CrimsonK said:
Ya I agree with almost all of this in regards to Okie but I do think +4 will be as good as we are likely to see. Like I mentioned above, if Dr Bob or Northcoast or someone with market influence released a big play on Okie I could be wrong but it's equally as likely they take Clemson so I do my best to estimate which way it's moving but it's certainly not an exact science.
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Yep, it's +3' at my book.
 
271 Ole Miss -6.5

First off, I think this is a great opportunity for Freeze and Ole Miss to get that bad taste out of their mouth from last year's bowl beatdown. To me, Ole Miss is a lot like a Big 12 team offensively but the difference is that they have a defense that is capable of playing top 10 quality. Oklahoma State isn't as good as Ole Miss is on offense and they are world's worse on defense. To me, that's really where it begins and ends. This is just a massive mismatch with the Ole Miss offense against the Cowboy defense. The Ole Miss offense was inconsistent and maddening to many Rebs fans throughout the first half of the season and then Freeze did something that I think helped them tremendously, he relinquished play calling duties to his Co-OC. Once he did that and Tunsil got back in the lineup and in shape, Kelly and the offense exploded. The only teams they could run on early in the year were the cupcakes but that changed after the Memphis game. They averaged 200.6 ypg rushing their last 5 games, at 5.3 ypc and scored 10 TD. To put that into perspective, 200 ypg if stretched out over the season would be good for just 9 yards shy of what Alabama averages per game on the ground and put them in the Top quarter of teams nationally. Pretty outstanding considering they also threw for 241, 402, 368, 280 and 236 against those same conference foes, all of which play superior defense to Ok State. Oklahoma went over 500 yards offense last game and scored 58 against these guys and I truly wouldn't be surprised if Ole Miss does similarly. The spread and total reflect a forecasted 37.5 to 31 score line. I like Ole Miss to get up into the upper 40's and beyond and I think probably the top end of what Ok State will do would be around that 31 range and I think even that is a real stretch depending on when Ole Miss does most of their scoring. Similar to my thoughts on the LSU defense against a spread team, I like the 4-2-5 Ole Miss defense better against this style of offense and they have one of the nation's top DL so getting pressure with 4 is something I think they can set out to do. Team speed will be a major advantage for the Rebel defense as they are undersized in the middle and back end but extremely quick. Mayfield had a lot of success using his legs in Bedlam and I think Kelly presents a similar challenge as his athleticism and allowance by the staff to use that skill set have been major contributors to their offense going next level. I don't like either Ok State QB very much, Rudolph had foot surgery less than a month ago so I wouldn't mind him trying to get the rust off out there in this game. Both guys are capable and experienced so to me it doesn't make a huge difference although I would prefer Rudolph out there coming off injury but they can't run the ball so it's just way too much to ask of these guys against the best defense they will see this season. I saw Baylor's QB turned WR just throw go routes for a zillion yards against these guys and I have full confidence that Ok State won't be able to just do the same to Washington like they can in most games and Kelly to Treadwell and Stringfellow will produce similar results. I think Ole Miss steam rolls them
 
276 Arkansas -9.5

Fitting that this write up comes right after the other major mismatch between SEC and Big 12 foes. Kansas State is awful. I look at their team and I see no redeeming qualities about them and they do nothing particularly well. Actually, Morgan Burns is a good player and another in the line of great returners for K State the past few years. I'll be up front, I love Bielema's Arkansas yeams and they have been an absolute cash pig the past few years if you have followed them and picked your spots. I was a bit hesitant to endorse them against Missouri last time out because their defense is just not good and the Missouri defense I felt had a chance to slow them enough to keep them from covering a 2 TD number. Wrong. They held them to under 175 yards and scored 28 themselves in winning 28-3. While I don't rate the Kansas State offense as poorly as Missouri's, they are closer to that team than any other opponent I can think of the Hogs have played this season. The K State offense ranks 75th in S&P offense and defense versus Arkansas who ranks 2nd and 71st in those same categories. The Hogs rank 3rd nationally in S&P offensive efficiency and K State comes in at 114th in defensive efficiency. What that means to me is that Arkansas rates to move the ball very successfully up and down the field. I expect Arkansas to eclipse 40 points in this game and I don't think that K State can take advantage of a poor Arkansas defense, they are just too bad offensively. Their passing offense stinks, their defense stinks but they play pretty good on special teams. Thankfully, matchup wise the good ST's are combatted by a good ST unit for Arkansas in their own right. I'm not gonna harp on it anymore, yes, Arkansas is 7-5, but I would favor them over probably 115 teams, meaning I think they are a top 15 rated team. Here is my only hangup about the game. Bill Snyder, not just the fact that he is a magician about making something out of nothing in games he has no business being in, but because he is a mentor to Bielema. He was the first coach that gave Bielema a job as a DC. Earlier in the season when Arkansas struggled, Bert called Coach Snyder and got input on motivating his team and some other stuff like that. I would say Bert B is probably the most point spread conscious coach that I can think of and I love that as a bettor, but I think this is the type of game where he may not cram in a late score if given the opportunity due to his relationship with Bill, whereas against just about anybody else I would say sure he's the kinda coach that is gonna score if he can. At 9.5 I don't see it as much of a factor because if he was up 7 he would prob try to score anyway but at 11 or 11.5 and probably on up closing to 13 where I can see this landing, it's just in the back of my mind as a concern. That's more on my mind than a K State back door passing TD down 14 or 17. All of that being said, I think the massive Hogs OL mauls them something to the tune of 45-24.
 
211 WKU/USF OVER 65
253 Louisville/Texas A&M OVER 48

Just grabbing a price on this one as market was moving to 50.5 with BM release. Would still be slight lean at 50.5 but if you have a book that's slow to move getting good value here
 
Houston/FSU is at 54.5 on BM if anyone likes under in that game, better number available than the 53 that was available.
 
211 WKU/USF OVER 65

Been looking quite a bit at this game. WKU needs little introduction offensively. They are one of the most potent passing attacks and offenses in the country, average 44 ppg and 49 ppg if you take out the two SEC foes. Pace and plays rate to be pretty average but like both offenses to have success. I lean towards USF getting points but really agree with clowncar's thoughts in another thread that fading this WKU team with the accomplished senior class they have may be a bad idea and I agree. I believe both teams will be motivated but would prob give the edge to WKU. I do like the USF defense but I think it's a stretch to believe they get held to the numbers that Vandy and LSU kept them to. Needing for both teams to get into the 30's here which both teams do pretty regularly. For USF, they avg 35 ppg but higher than that recently as competition has lessened and they have gotten better play for their defense and better from offense as well, they have just shown a lot of improvement. Both teams are in the top 40 in S&P offensive explosiveness and efficiency and both teams are about average in those categories defensively. The ground game has been outstanding the past few weeks for USF as they rely on Flower's athletic ability to make things happen under center. Most impressive for me is the 48 for 326 they ran against a really good Temple defense. They've gone 242, 346, 361, 281 on the ground the last 4 to go along with right at about 200 on avg through the air in that span. WKU showed last bowl season they will be ready to score even with a long layoff and they also showed that defensively the back door stays pretty open (See 2014 Bahama Bowl). I think this one has the makings to be a pretty exciting shootout but I can also make a case for USF bullying them a little bit. Don't think the number is way off but seeing BM hang the 65 was good enough for me on a game I wanted involvement in.
 
Here are a couple props I like in Army/Navy:

ARMY 35 pts first/neither scores 35 pts +145
Jamir Tillman OVER 1 catch -125
 
Since Reynolds has been at Navy, they have scored 35+ on Navy a total of zero times. 17, 34, 17. While I think they are likely to score closer to the 34 here and wouldn't be shocked should they eclipse that, it's a value play. Navy TT is 36 (UN -119) on BM. I'm not worried about Army scoring 35 so I'm getting the Navy TT U at 34.5 for +145 versus 36 at -119. It's an edge, I'll play it.

Tillman is really the only target for Reynolds. He is clearly the WR1, 22 catches on 31 targets. The second leading targetee is their SB, Sanders. Pretty large disparity in % of targets between 1 and 2, 37.3% vs. 13.3%. Tillman averages 2 catches per game and has only been shutout once this season, but logged catches in the other 10. Navy hardly throws and their pattern seems to be in this game that they don't throw a ton more or break tendencies even with Army being well versed in seeing the trip option. That being said, he's coming off a huge 5 catch day against Houston that saw Navy trail and have to throw a bunch. While I don't foresee that happening here, even if Navy throws 3 passes, the numbers support 1 will be a catch by Tillman with a lean towards him getting a second.
 
One more, will push a slight perceived edge.

A. Kemper rushing yards UNDER 55 -135

He averages 46 per game, most recently went 14 for 129, 14 for 47, 13 for 16, 11 for 59 so he is getting it abit more than he did early in the year but aside from against AFA (14 for 47) 3 of those 4 were some of the worst teams in CFB.
 
Have an out that is offering some props I like.

PAC 12 OVER 6 Bowl Wins -105

Samaje Perine to score 1st TD Oklahoma/Clemson +600
Deshaun Watson to score 1st TD Oklahoma/Clemson +700

Alabama to win championship +105
Total Points Scored 36-42 Michigan State/Alabama +650
Michigan State Team Total UNDER 20 -115
Derrick Henry to score 1st TD Michigan State/Alabama +250
 
booksbestfriend said:
Less than two minutes to get that reception prop. Thanks for sharing.
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You're welcome. If I would have known they would have thrown it 13 times I would have found a way to mortgage it - easy ones are fun :cheers3:

Big 12 Zero Bowl Wins +3775
Big 12 Bowl Wins UNDER 3 -215
 
214 Akron/Utah State UNDER 49

Both teams play a lot better defense than they do offense. My biggest concern is this is the potato bowl which just seems to mean there will somehow be lots of points scored even though it's freezing cold and often nasty in Idaho when this is played. Akron is in this game for one reason and it's because of their defense. They stop the run so well and they force lots of turnovers. The Utah State offense, in general, just isn't really any good this season. Their scoring numbers are pretty inflated. Their passing attack is below average and that is an easier area to exploit on the Akron defense and I just don't think Utah State can do it. Not a lot of explosive players on offense but both teams feature really good players on the other side of the ball. Aside from facing two of the best offenses in CFB in BGSU and Oklahoma, Akron has kept everybody they've played to 28 or less. While I wouldn't say they've played a lot of good offensive teams, i think Utah State fits right into the pattern of below average offenses. Pace and plays per game will be below nat'l average. I prefer Akron as a side, I actually think they may win outright. I see a big advantage in motivation for a team making something like it's second ever bowl game against a Utah State team that didn't live up to high aspirations and are playing in their 3rd tater bowl in past 5 years. This is the perfect game to put on mute and take a nap on the couch with a cider. 17-16 Zips
 
CrimsonK said:
What you think about your game? Can you tell if team cares yet?
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I have to think given the effort last game and last year's bowl, they come to play.

Should be some big mismatches.......This is the kind of team LSU can defend much much better, ala TAMU game
 
Thanks, Yanks. Nice to see ya buddy.

226 UConn/Marshall UNDER 44

UConn is one of the better under teams in recent memory. 10-2 in favor of the under this season, Marshall not too shabby either at 8-4. Aside from two scoring eruptions against ECU and UCF, UConn kept it under 20 scored in each dame and stayed in the single digits a few times. Fortunately, for them, their defense is the reason they are bowling. They're really good. They give up just under 20 ppg, 114th in S&P+ offense and 34th in defense. Pace is really slow for UConn and quicker for Marshall but their offense isn't good enough to do much. Marshall YPP ranks 90th and UConn 116. Defensively, 26th and 35th respectively. So it's two bad offenses and two good defenses, it's totaled low 40's so nobody is shocked by that. Really comes down to I see UConn controlling tempo and their offense doing just enough to move some chains in a grinder and their defense has their usual success playing fundamental, Iowa Hawkeye style defense that tries to limit big plays, and limits a bad Marshall offense. Lean to the points here also in what could be a field goal game, maybe even a field goal total to boot, 3-0.
 
238 Pittsburgh/Navy UNDER 56

Jim Chaney is a big loss for Pitt as their OC. He was just hired by Kirby at GA to fill that role for him and his absence in this bowl game is a really big deal, IMO. Pitt only has one assistant on staff with any real playcalling experience. Narduzzi is a defense-minded coach and I have to believe the loss of Chaney and facing the difficult to defend option, he will elect to slow it down and err on the side of conservatism on offense. Not like that will be all that different for Pitt who already plays pretty slow, 84th nationally in plays per game and are 90th in adjusted pace. Pitt keeps it on the ground 57% of plays, 34th nationally, and has trended even higher than that past 3. Navy pounds it 85% of the time, good for first nationally. So, we should have plenty of running clock as Navy is slow as well ranking 112th nationally in plays per game and 57th in adjusted pace. Both defenses slightly above average in yards per play, 57th and 68th, but better against run in ypp at 34th and 48th. Pretty good combination of running clock, slow pace, teams playing into each others strengths and conservative coaching/significant vacancy. Gun to head, I take Navy. Will likely be another opportunity to play a Tillman catch prop as well as I'll be on the lookout for potential play on a 2H under, pretty much all of the numbers line up for both teams to play a lower scoring 2H, Pitt is one of best 2H defenses in football, so if it takes a half for them to get into flow of new playcalling on offense, good news is the defense will be there to offset any edge there in the 2H, I hope.
 
Thanks, Carlo. I think it's going to be a good few weeks.

241 Air Force/Cal OVER 65.5

Cal is 94th in ypp rush defense, Air Force runs it 58 times a game for 316 yards and 5.4 ypc which is good for 2nd, 2nd and 12th nationally. So we've got a real bad Cal rush defense, (remember maybe 5ish years ago when they led the nation in rush defense?), and a team that runs it really well. Surprisingly, Air Force only comes in at 21st nationally in time of poss at 32:39 so while that's super healthy, they haven't always proved they can just hog it all game. That would be the concern when taking a mid 60's total with an option team. Fortunately, Cal is both explosive and efficient on offense and they have the type of offense that can score pretty quickly and aren't afraid to air it out as they do so 57% of time, 4th nationally. The good news about the Cal offense is if they have an off-day passing they are actually a really good rush offense as well when they choose to run at 46th nationally for 4.6 ypc. Goff is going to have a monster day on this defense, he is coming off of a day where he went 30-51 for 542 and 5TD in a 48 point scoring effort. Air Force ranks 128th nationally in defensive ISOPPP, which means giving up explosive plays. They have a pretty good rush defense but are bad against the pass, especially bad in giving up big plays and we've got a QB and offense that are going to challenge and hopefully exploit that. While AFA doesn't pass a ton, when they do, they are extremely explosive as well as their pass offense is 1st nationally in ISOPPP. Teams are 25th and 34th in adjusted pace and 30th and 82nd in plays per game. Contract game for Goff, I think this could be one of the more entertaining games of the undercard. Slight lean to Cal if number ticks down below 7 but think the over is much better option.
 
280 West Virginia/Arizona State UNDER 66.5

This is a great matchup for Arizona State. They are terrible against the pass on defense, as evidenced by my previous write-up about what Cal and Goff did to them in the season finale, threw for 542 and 5 TD. Really as much as I can tell, they don't play poor pass defense on every down as their 126th ranking pass defense ypg may indicate, they just give up far too many home runs. I'll start here because it's actually a game where I initially had a heavy lean to WVU seeing the openers. Upon further review, I really started to like that the disadvantages that Arizona State has as a team and they will be minimized against this WVU offense. For starters, I don't like the WVU QB at all. His QBR against bowl teams: 90, 95, 137, 78, 85 and 109. That's a QBR of 99. Where would that rank him nationally if that number were to hold as a season average, 114th nationally, just behind NW's Clayton Thorson. In those 6 games, he went 100/213 for for average of 206 ypg 8 TD/8 INT with 4 of those 8TD coming against Art Briles' vaunted defense. Now I don't think I'm exactly being unfair in just looking at bowl teams, keep in mind the teams on this list, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas State. You have some of the worst defenses in all of the bowlers in that group. So we know that WVU is a better running team than they are passing and good news, their 18th ranked rush offense will face off against the 19th ranked rush defense. The strength of the Arizona State offense is their passing game, which they rank 24th nationally in ypg. More good news, the strength of WVU is their pass defense, they rank 63rd and I actually tip my hat to that ranking considering as much as I just bashed those Big 12 bowlers for not playing defense, they all pass the ball really well, except Kansas State who only special team returns well. Pace is far and away my biggest concern. Offensively, these teams average about 85 plays per game - 2nd and 8th respectively but ASU's OC is off to Memphis so we may see some tweaks, maybe he'll even elect to run the triple option. The good news, I foresee the clock moving throughout as ASU is about 50/50 run/pass and WVU is 60/40. ASU was 6-3 to the under against this number against bowlers while WVU was 5-2. I've also gone ahead and added the AZ State side at pick.

​280 Arizona State PICK
 
230 Southern Miss/Washington UNDER 56

This is a great UNDER team in Washington. They are a young but very talented bunch of underclassmen. I like this team a lot and think next year and 2017 could potentially be really outstanding for them. Washington has stayed under this current number, 56, 11-1 this season with the lone over a 52-7 drubbing of Oregon State. In 7 of their 12 they've held opponents under 20 - what is even more impressive is that 10 of their 12 opponents went bowling. It's the PAC 12 so they see all sorts of different styles of offenses and should have some good film to base some of what they may seen from a less conventional S Miss offense, I would think. Wash in about 50/50 in run/pass mix and a favorably paced team at 117th nationally. They are an above average offense but led by a young QB who was pretty inconsistent but saved some of his best football for last, a good sign as a freshman adjusting to the game. Their most recent scoreline may have helped with a little inflation as their defense scored 21 against Washington State. Their OL has been pretty beat up all season and has featured a smorgasbord of lineups and I do think they will get healthier in this time off and be able to run the ball with more effectiveness. On defense, they feature two of the better names of the bowl season, Psalm Wooching and Budda Baker. Needless to say, Petersen continues to do a great job managing all of the diverse religious practices of his team and staff. Southern Miss has looked like a world beater offensively this season and last time out even looked like they would run WKU out of the building. The problem is when you look deeper, they built most of their castle against the peons. They rank 12th nationally in scoring offense but are mediocre at best against good competition. Against other bowl teams, 16-34, 28-36, 10-31, 58-24, 28-45. Keep in mind, 4 of those 5 bowl teams all have average to poor defenses, save for Marshall who held them to 10. This Washington defense will clearly be the best defense they will see this season and the most athletic since the opener where a bad Miss St defense kept them to 16. It's a HUGE step up in class for SO Miss here and a huge step down for Washington but one in which I do expect the Huskies to be motivated. I think Petersen is good at getting teams to play well in the post-season. The So Miss offense is great statistically, but as I mentioned, they don't play anybody who likes defense too much. Fortunately, they aren't one of those offensive juggernauts like we've seen in year's past that just neglects the defensive side of the ball - they are slightly above average in S&P defense at 62nd and are quite proficient on defense when they aren't giving up homeruns. Fortunately, I don't see the Wash offense as being much a home run threat as they lack a ton of explosiveness in both rush and pass offense. Pace is above average for SO MISS, 46th nationally, but as I mentioned previously I think they have a real tough go on offense and the defense is formidable enough to keep a growing Huskies offense under control as well. Right now forecast with spread/total is 32.5-23.5 and I don't forsee either team getting there. I do have a strong lean to Washington here as I think their defense dominates in something like a 27-16 game.
 
201 Arizona/New Mexico OVER 64.5

Kudos to the people that made this bowl happen. Certainly lots of interesting layers and storylines. New Mexico seems to be a really trendy pick. I think they meet a lot of trends and angles that bettors look for in bowl season. They will be motivated, they're playing at home, they're getting two scores and they're going to run the ball really well. I have very little doubt that they are going to have success offensively. I don't have much faith in the Arizona defense being able to defend well against the option. As I mentioned in my write up on the Cal/Air Force game, playing a mid 60's total over with a triple option team is something I would only do in select circumstances - consequently, I think all 3 mid 60's totaled triple option games should go over. New Mexico throws a bit more than other optioners with just over 1 in 4 plays being passes. You've got the 103rd and 109th S&P defenses and two of the worst pass defenses in CFB. While I would prefer a team that throws a bit better than New Mexico, I do think running the option and showing such a different look on a relative short turn around compared to some others, I think thats an advantage. It's not as if Zona defends the run real well either, they are 66th in S&P rush D. The matchup I love and really what makes this what it is is the Zona pass offense against the New Mexico pass D. It's an enormous mismatch. I read an article last night where a PAC12 analyst was weighing in on the game and I love his word choice, "Arizona is going to crease this defense". That's exactly what I see happening. Solomon just got the green light after passing concussion protocol and that was what pushed me over the edge to play this. Arizona has one of the more explosive passing games and New Mexico has been plagued by that all season as well as there is a major advantage on passing downs for Zona. On the other side of the coin, New Mexico is really explosive as well against a defense that gives up tons of big plays. It's safe to assume we're going to see some long TD's and big gainers. Pace should be fine, New Mexico a bit slower at 77th and Zona at 16th running 80+ ppg. On the back half of the season, when Zona starting really feeling more of the losses of their LB group, they've given up 31+ in every game and on average 41 points per game. New Mexico gave up 34 ppg on avg to the 7 bowlers they played while scoring 23. Zona gave up 43 ppg on avg to bowlers while scoring 30 ppg and I'm pretty comfortable in saying this will be the worst defense of all of the bowlers they've seen. I do think there are a couple tangibles and more intangibles in New Mexico's favor and I get the sense they compete here and I really don't see any conceivable way that happens in a lower scoring affair, I think it's gonna have to be a shootout where they are ripping off big gainers. From a pure numbers standpoint this wasn't a lot different than I would have totaled it but it's one of those that I think presents tons of upside so I rolled with what i think is a slight edge. I'll go 42-34 Zona.
 
240 Minnesota -6

I've done great on predictive line movement and have timed things extremely well but this one frustrates me. Almost played them -5 on several occasions but they got hit to 6 today and looks more likely to go 6'/7 than 5.5.
 
Rates to be a slower game, IMO. Minny is just really good at limiting explosive plays and I think CMU relies a bit on explosive plays to make them go and conversely I don't see a lot of explosiveness in the Minn o vs CMU d. Minn D is really good at getting teams to 3rd down and I think they rate to have quite a bit of success against the lack of CMU rush offense. I just hate that in teams when they don't run and when they do they stink. Just hard to support a team like that, even Wash St who never really runs is really good when they do, CMU is neither. I could see it getting into the mid 50's if either team finds big plays and/or things get out of balance. You prefer a side in game?
 
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