NCAAF 15/16 Bowl Thread

Here is a FD cash lineup I played for Tues/Wed, last time out both lineups should have won most cash games with 155 and 145:

QB: Kevin Ellison (GASO 5,900)
RB: Travis Green (BGSU 8,700)
RB: Matt Breida (GASO 7,500)
WR: Kenny Golladay (NILL 7,700)
WR: Thomas Sperbeck (BOISE 8,500)
WR: Aregeros Turner (NILL 4,500)
TE: Derek Lee (BGSU 2,200)

Most lineups are going to be very BGSU passing personnel heavy. Fading that with the weather rolling through the southeast right now. With my WR, I don't think there are gonna be an abundance of TD in that game but went with two volume guys (71 and 82 catches with combined 2,400 yards and 19 TD) and Turner is a guy that gets 4+ touches a game running and receiving so he was a cheap option and maybe even a guy I could see involved in trickeration.
 
Taking a flier on two props.

Potato Bowl:
Akron wins first quarter by 1-6 points +1100
Akron wins game by 1-6 points +450
 
Thanks, Monger. Appreciate it.

LOL Marlo

I haven't been listing any weights of plays but want to be candid on some where I'm kinda playing more for action and this upcoming add for the Poinsettia is one of them. I'm traveling for the holidays tomorrow but still should be able to post any adds I play over next several days. I'm not going to have any time to cap props on tomorrow's games and won't add anything there. I said to myself before the games today, I think we get 4 unders in a row and at least 3 dogs outright, that's held true thus far and think both dogs tomorrow have a fair shot at it and feel real nice about GASO. I'm interested in backing lots of passing success and more scoring in the Bahamas bowl so will look for several other ways to do that, I think there could be 100 points. No interest in Cincy/SDSU at all, prob my least interested game of bowls, there is only one prop I'm looking for in that game and really hope I have an out that gives me the option. Will also be backing UConn and Wash but gonna wait and mull over few options of how I want to do that other than my bets that indirectly are on both unders.

​218 Boise State/No Illinois UNDER 28.5 1H
 
that akron 1st quarter +1100 is a beautiful thing well done on the game too bad the 1100 didnt hit
 
​218 Boise State/No Illinois UNDER 28.5 1H

Brief thoughts. I don't really like either offense at the moment. Graham is starting for NIU and he is probably the best option for the under. He is serviceable enough to move the chains and use his mobility while not being a huge threat passing the ball. He relies a lot on mobility as does this NIU offense and he's coming off a leg injury so there could be some rust in getting up to game speed. NIU defense limits big plays and forces teams to try FG or turns them over in the red zone - they are tough to get TD against. Boise is really bad at finishing drives. 1H have been rough on both offenses the past 3 games as they have averaged 7 and 8 points respectively. Defensively 16 and 17. I've noticed on several games thus far with the long layoff it can take teams a bit to get going and this has the ingredients to be another tight low scoring half. Like full game as well at 57 but preferred this and don't wanna stretch on a game I'm not in love with.
 
Thanks fellas 11/1 woulda been sweet but 4.5/1 and game winners are a nice consellation.

Forgot to list this one too for early next week:

238 Pitt/Navy UNDER 27 1H
 
Go Daddy Bowl:
Matt Johnson Total Passing Yards UNDER 368.5 -115
Matt Johnson TD passes UNDER 3.5 -120
Travis Green Rushing Yards OVER 106.5 +105
LA Ramsby Rushing Yards OVER 67.5 +105
 
BOL and have a great X-mas. Really nice that you are posting again, the board has missed your excellent insight.
 
clowncar said:
ck where are your prop outs?
Click to expand...

Primarily 5d and have a local that copies betusa stuff who actually sets a lot of the prop market as far as I can tell. Not sure they are the legit originator but they are the first of any books on screen I see. That's where I was able to get some of those playoff props
 
Bahama Bowl:

Zach Terrell OVER 272.5 passing yards -120
Richie James OVER 96.5 receiving yards -120
Corey Davis OVER 6.5 catches -130
Longest TD OVER 61.5 -115
 
St. Pete Bowl:
Arkeel Newsome OVER 2.5 receptions -120

Sun Bowl:
Dom Williams OVER 6.5 receptions -120

Zaxby's Bowl:
Nick Mulens UNDER 23.5 completions -120
Nick Mullens UNDER 288.5 passing yards -120

Pinstripe Bowl:
Nate Sudfield OVER 290.5 passing yards -120Simmie Cobbs OVER 4.5 receptions -130
Simmie Cobbs OVER 82.5 receiving yards -120

Foster Farms Bowl:
Josh Rosen OVER 22 completions -120
Josh Rosen OVER 277.5 passing yards -120
 
Betusa. They'll often times post the night before and 5dimes will copy or make similar with little better vig, if they don't get hit hard first, on gameday and then others seem to follow suit.

Some fanduel stuff. The midweek lineup was pure awful for me this week. I am not a volume player so only played one and glad I didn't do anything else cause I put up 55 points. Like the following cash options for tomorrow:

QB Sudfield (IND 8,200) or Falk (Wazzou 9,400)
RB Gaskin (Wash 6,600) ALL LINEUPS
RB Redding (Ind 5,900 - Howard is game time decision so will watch status in morning) or McMillian (VT 6,400)
WR Williams (Wazzou 7,200) ALL LINEUPS
WR Cobbs (IND 6,100) ALL LINEUPS
WR Marks (Wazzou 7,600 - check status in AM) or Duarte (UCLA 6,300) or Payton (UCLA 6,100)
TE Hodges (VT 3,200) or Yurachek (Marshall 3,300)
 
Thanks, Cub.

225 UCONN +6 -120

Prob the first time I've ever bought to 6 on a dog. As I previously mentioned in my quick thoughts on the under, should be a slow paced and low scoring game. Likely wouldn't do it often and there is prob long term value in selling a half/full point to 4.5 than buying up to the 6 but I had the option and took it. Will also take some ML at 175 for small.
 
CrimsonK said:
Betusa. They'll often times post the night before and 5dimes will copy or make similar with little better vig, if they don't get hit hard first, on gameday and then others seem to follow suit.

Some fanduel stuff. The midweek lineup was pure awful for me this week. I am not a volume player so only played one and glad I didn't do anything else cause I put up 55 points. Like the following cash options for tomorrow:

QB Sudfield (IND 8,200) or Falk (Wazzou 9,400)
RB Gaskin (Wash 6,600) ALL LINEUPS
RB Redding (Ind 5,900 - Howard is game time decision so will watch status in morning) or McMillian (VT 6,400)
WR Williams (Wazzou 7,200) ALL LINEUPS
WR Cobbs (IND 6,100) ALL LINEUPS
WR Marks (Wazzou 7,600 - check status in AM) or Duarte (UCLA 6,300) or Payton (UCLA 6,100)
TE Hodges (VT 3,200) or Yurachek (Marshall 3,300)
Click to expand...

:cheers3:
 
Glad to hear it, Play. GL today!

One more on the St Pete game. Glad the late night capping paid off as the market crashed down - +6 would cost -153 this AM.

225 UConn +.5 3Q -125

Was reading some Husky message boards last night and got enlightened on howthe 3Q has been their best all season. S&P agrees, specifically on offense and the 3Q has been Marshall's worst this season.
 
Taking a bad number that I have access to here. I love the bet and I don't think Marshall gets past 20 unless it goes to OT, but full disclosure, if this was 23.5 like a lot of what I see out there I would pass on what i believe to be a winning bet. That being said, I've got a 24.5 at 115 so I'm playing it but I wouldnt back it it even at a half point less, if that makes sense.

226 Marshall Total points UNDER 24.5 -115
 
GL today, I don't disagree with any. Think the Uconn defense stands up, and clearly, so do you.
 
Thanks, fellas. Did some housekeeping and heading into the final full week things stand at 42-28 +18.50 units

I'm not super interested in the prop market tomorrow. I'm really looking at two players, one in each game, that I think stand to outperform some potential numbers they may post. There is one more play I'm adding for tomorrow on a side.

240 Minnesota -2.5 1H

I've had this one in my phone under the notes section for awhile now and was hoping to get the 2.5 and got it today. Minny holds a decided advantage statistically in the first half. Their S&P in 1Q O/D is 72/69 to CMU 81/122 and 2Q O/D is 31/39 to CMU 94/103. The 3Q is the only one where CMU plays superior, they rank 15th nationally in Q3 S&P to Minny's 65. The CMU defense has statistically been excellent in the 2H, their QbyQ S&P on defense is 122, 103, 11, 15. Their are horrible offensively in the 4th but great in the 3rd so I will even look at something like betting Minny in 2Q and CMU in 3Q. Will definitely be adding Minny 2Q tomorrow and will post and may make a decision on CMU tomorrow either at half or live.
 
238 Navy 1H ML -140

Large edges for Navy here in the 1H. Q1 O/D 24/49 v. 45/75 and Q2 4/60 v. 62/41. Navy is an excellent 1H team statistically and Pitt a much better 2H team. New OC for Pitt here replacing one of the more underrated coordinators in CFB. Salem's calling plays for first time since he was demoted in 2008 at UCF for his 119th ranked scoring offense. Against the GT option, the Jackets got into Pitt territory 6 times, 5 of them coming in the 1H, after adjustments at half, they only let GT get past midfield once. I have the under in the 1H here as well and like both selections but prefer this of the two.
 
CrimsonK said:
238 Navy 1H ML -140

Large edges for Navy here in the 1H. Q1 O/D 24/49 v. 45/75 and Q2 4/60 v. 62/41. Navy is an excellent 1H team statistically and Pitt a much better 2H team. New OC for Pitt here replacing one of the more underrated coordinators in CFB. Salem's calling plays for first time since he was demoted in 2008 at UCF for his 119th ranked scoring offense. Against the GT option, the Jackets got into Pitt territory 6 times, 5 of them coming in the 1H, after adjustments at half, they only let GT get past midfield once. I have the under in the 1H here as well and like both selections but prefer this of the two.
Click to expand...

Good stuff, CK. GL
 
Was really hoping to see 1.5 again. Kind of knew this was one of the player props you were referring to, but did not want put it on blast.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Was really hoping to see 1.5 again. Kind of knew this was one of the player props you were referring to, but did not want put it on blast.
Click to expand...

Haha, thanks for the discretion. I didn't figure to see that again, thought it was gonna be 2.5 and it was with reasonable juice. He catches everything thrown at him, 70+% catch rate, with 21 ypc which is almost unheard of with those two combined. If he gets 4 targets the numbers pretty well back up both bets cash, he's 15 yards per target. I think they may have some tough sledding running against the Pitt defense at times too so him posting a third straight 5 catch 100 yard game is actually pretty much what I expect.
 
Little Caesar's Bowl
KJ Maye OVER 57.5 receiving yards -115


I'll take a long look at a team's clear WR1 at this number in just about every game. Maye has 115 targets on the season, 30% of balls go his way which is good for Top 20 nationally in target rate (Think JuJu Smith if you're a west coast fan in terms of how much he is thrown to). The second most targeted WR has seen 57 passes which is almost exactly half as much as Maye gets. He has really good speed and lines up in slot as well on the perimeter, they will move him to get matchups. I think Minny will actually have more passing success against the Chips defense than running it and I'm pretty sure Maye will enjoy not being guarded by the usual slew of lock down corners he has been paired with this season. This is a game where Minny will have an athletic edge and that can't be said for a ton of game this year. Everything I've read points to Maye being motivated in his final game and trying to get an invite to play in the Senior Bowl where he played his HS football in Mobile. This is taken from a recent ESPN article:

He hasn't gotten an invite yet, but as a local player he has a decent shot of being added to the roster. A big bowl performance certainly would help.
"I really want to make sure he has another good game," Leidner said. "That just helps his résumé to get down there and play in the Senior Bowl. That's how I'm looking at it."

So while he only averages 58 ypg, I do see some additional motivation for him in a game where he takes a huge step down in class. His numbers are sporadic but is coming off a good back stretch of the season, just over 7 catches and 75 ypg and that includes games against Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.
 
Well Zeke just got in a car accident and was driving with a suspended license...so who knows where his head will be.

Will really question their motivation heading into this one, but I said same thing about Michigan game and then they go in there and beat the brakes off of them. ND is much better than UM though. Don't really have a feel either way on Bucks bowl game. Kind of a disappointment of a Bowl Game around Columbus is the feeling I get.

GL again
 
STEED said:
Well Zeke just got in a car accident and was driving with a suspended license...so who knows where his head will be.

Will really question their motivation heading into this one, but I said same thing about Michigan game and then they go in there and beat the brakes off of them. ND is much better than UM though. Don't really have a feel either way on Bucks bowl game. Kind of a disappointment of a Bowl Game around Columbus is the feeling I get.

GL again
Click to expand...

Good info about feel of fan base. Sorta to be expected but bummer to see leaders making bad choices game week. I have over at a really good number already so I'll prob be watching to see if some ND money comes in closer to kick or get involved 2H cause if they do what i think they may I think it comes late
 
CrimsonK said:
Haha, thanks for the discretion. I didn't figure to see that again, thought it was gonna be 2.5 and it was with reasonable juice. He catches everything thrown at him, 70+% catch rate, with 21 ypc which is almost unheard of with those two combined. If he gets 4 targets the numbers pretty well back up both bets cash, he's 15 yards per target. I think they may have some tough sledding running against the Pitt defense at times too so him posting a third straight 5 catch 100 yard game is actually pretty much what I expect.
Click to expand...

Gonna tail you on all props today. My guy is offering a little better juice options though.
 
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