NBA Playoffs Discussion Thread for (remaining) Game 5s

Denver should handle the dubs tonight. Too much emotion off the last 3 games for gs to close it out in Denver when they know game 6 is back at roaracle. Denver should run away and hide with it.

No huge feel for the others, hoping for an over in la like in Brooklyn last night so I can get a favorable under line for game 6 at the grindhouse.
 
Pacers + Nuggets + Oklahoma parlay should be money, but 2.00 odds just too low.
Would have expected here around 2.20 for such parlay...
 
I don't know but 7.5 seems a little too high IMO. I understand its an elimination game, playing at home also but the Warriors have covered every spread in this series going 4-0. Both games in Denver we played well and I don't see that stopping. I think Denver wins but not sure if they cover the number.

I think Denver starts out strong riding the home crowd so I'm going to wait for an in game number.
 
Den/Gs total is what interests me Tuesday. Here's why -

When it comes to looking at betting totals deep into a series, aside from the elimination game angle what I try and look for is to see what, if any, kind of pattern the 2 teams concerned are "working out" between themselves. Looking at this series, to me it's interesting to note that of the 4 scorelines put up thus far, the 2 "middle of the road" totals (216 & 218 pts) have played out in Oakland, and the 2 extreme totals have played out in Denver (192 & 248 pts). So the immediate question that comes to mind is where will this Game 5 total land? At one end of the extremes (as per the previous games in Denver), or will Denver "finally" host a middle of the road affair?

The way this series has played out tickled something in my memory, so I went back & had a look at GS's last 1st round playoff series (vs Dallas, 06-07). While they're completely diff. GS teams, that's not the reason for my referencing that series here. It's the way it played out as a general pattern that interests me. Here's how the totals panned out for that series (Game 1 first, obv./GS road games bolded/could only find closing lines/GS's score 1st)...

182 (213.5) 97-85
211 (211.0) 99-112
200 (210.5) 109-91
202 (206.5) 103-99
230 (205.5) 112-118
197 (208.5) 111-86

Back then, as is the case now, GS went up 3-1 on Dallas then took to the road for Game 5. As can be seen quite clearly, they had their worst defensive outing in a game that was the purest freebie they got in that series (while Game 6 was also a kind of freebie - they could still afford to lose it as well and still not lose the series - to my mind a Game 6 for a team up 3-2 is not nearly as much a freebie as a Game 4 or 5 is for a team with 3 wins on the board. Knowing losing a Game 6 leads to your facing a potential elimination from the playoffs, is a situation to my mind that leads to a bit more psychological urgency than knowing - as a 3 wins team - if you lose (a game 4 or 5) you simply move onto another game with your own potential elimination still nowhere in sight). Clearly this current Game 5 is a freebie for GS. Now sometimes freebie games can lead to lax efforts (cue NYK's Game 4 vs Boston, where any decent effort from NYK likely would've swept Boston with a regulation win) on the part of the team with the free pass before them, and that lax (code for energyless) effort is what many a freebie elimination game Under result is founded upon. But here, as with that 06-07 affair, I think GS's players will be too energised by their results to date in this series for them to put up a mailed-in effort (it must be pointed out that's exactly how they started that 06-07 Game 5: they trailed by 10 after 1 & trailed by up to 20 in the 2nd period, before a second wind for them resulted in their eventually leading by 6 with 2:15 to go).

These 2 teams have 4 playoff games in the books, on top of 4 regular season meetings. Only 2 of those 8 games have played out as the classic kind of scoring contest (namely 220+ point affairs) you'd expect to routinely see when 2 *no defense* teams such as these (GS 19th, DEN 23rd ranked Ds: only LAL 22nd & HOU 28th were worse to make the playoffs) match up. Notably, those 2 exceptions took place in Denver: a reg. season game won 116-105 by the Nuggets, and the Warriors 131-117 Game 2 win. And the way the scoring has panned out in this series...

192
248
218 (212.0)
216 (211.5)
???
???

I can see eventually mirroring that 06-07 series to a T. We get a Game 5 scoreline falling in alongside the 3 previous affairs (at a guess, in the 220s: Denver wins something like 114-109/117-107), before the series coughs up just an ugly an affair as it started matters with. GS, as the better team in this series (who can argue with results? they could've swept to this point), has the freebie for game 5, which means they've no great pressure to bring their best defense. Denver, as any team under pressure is forced to do, has to bring their best to the table. For them, that means offense. That doesn't mean they won't bring energy to defense, but teams under pressure don't lead with what they're weakest at. They lead with their strengths.
Also, I note with interest that the last 2 games had a single "low" scoring period which "hid" the otherwise overall decent socring rates involved: a fact that meant the final scorelines finished close to the number, and make those games seem more detached from Game 2's scoring than they really were. To wit

Game 3 had a 47 pt 4th period. Excise that effort and the average scoring from the other 3 periods leads to a full 4 period avg of 228.0 pts.

Game 4 had a 46 pt 1st period. Excise that effort and the average scoring from the other 3 periods leads to a full 4 period avg of 226.5 pts.

What makes Game 4 especially interesting is while Curry was spectacular, he really only put in 1 period of offensive effort. In the 1st-2nd-4th periods combined he only made 5 total attempts that didn't result in shooting fouls (& 2 attempts which did lead to FTs). And yet he still totaled 31 pts. Naturally Game 4's "low" scoring 1st period came at a time when Curry was all but a no-show offensively. I struggle to believe he'll put in 2 straight 1-period efforts.


Finally, I see this line has dropped a couple of points from its 213.5 open. Maybe some minds are seeing that Game 1 scoreline (in Denver) and think elimination game/tight affair/repeat city. Such dynamics applied no less for the Game 5 from that 06-07 series (then that game 5 line was 6 points lower than for the previous game played in Dallas), and that game saw the highest scoring affair of all 6 games played. IMO, teams playing freebie cards (games 4 &/or 5 for teams w/3 wins on the board) are not the elimination games to bank on ugly affairs (esp. not when the teams involved natural styles are what they are here). GS can afford to play fast & loose, and if Denver wants to keep this series alive then they have no choice but to lead with their strength, which is naturally fast & loose. I've got live betting for this one, so where this would be a normal sized bet for me, it only makes sense for me to place a small bet pre-game (If they start slow, well at most I give this game - as with the last 2 - 1 ugly period. Line drops, I'll hit the lower number even harder in-game) then I'll never see something as low as 211.5 ever again (but with the line dropping, I'll wait until closer to gametime to place it. Might hit 210 or less yet).
 
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series game 4-5, dog on 2 game streak, won those two games by 8+ combined, against seeds 3+: 12-1 ATS, losing once ATS in double AT...


Memphis +5.5
Atlanta +6.5
 
Kenneth Faried was pretty mad after his Denver Nuggets lost Game 4 of their first-round Western Conference playoff series to the Golden State Warriors. How mad? This mad:




Yep, that's a hole in the wall just inside the door of the visitors' locker room at Oracle Arena in Oakland, which the power forward admitted came from one of his size 16s after Sunday's 115-101 loss.
[Also: Jason Collins showed toughness long before announcing he's Yag]
“I hate losing with a passion. I hate losing more than I like winning,” Faried said, according to Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post, who snapped the shot above. And now that the visitors' locker room wall knows that, it's sure to avoid messing with the Manimal in the future.
Just one problem: Hasn't Faried been working with a sprained left ankle that cost him the last two games of the Nuggets' regular season and the first game of the playoffs, and has clearly hampered him at times over the last four games? More from Hochman:
Asked if he used his injured left foot or his right foot to kick the hole, Faried said, “I don’t know, I just kicked it, I was mad.” (Faried is right-handed, so one would assume he’s also right-footed.)
Oh. OK, then.
Faried's been mad for most of this series — at his health, at his opponents and at the circumstances in which his team finds itself, according to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post:
"It's extremely frustrating," Faried said Sunday. "Especially when it's taking away my most powerful weapon — my legs. I've just got to fight through it and hopefully I'll be all right." [...]
"I don't think for the rest of this year I'm going to be my like old self," he said. "Still hurting, but I'm fighting through it. My team needs me and needs me to step up big. I'm trying to slowly but surely do what I need to do to help us win." [...]
"I'm getting hit by three to four people, getting grabbed by the collar, getting my jersey almost torn off my body each and every possession," he said. "I've just got to keep going."
Clearly, that collected frustration boiled over on a night that saw the 6-foot-8 sophomore tally eight points and 12 rebounds, but struggle to overcome both the physicality of resurgent Warriors center Andrew Bogut (12 points on 6 for 9 shooting, five rebounds, two blocks and two huge dunks that helped galvanize the Oracle faithful) and the tenacity of reserve forwards Carl Landry and Draymond Green (30 combined points on 11 for 19 shooting).
It's not hard to understand why Faried and his fellow Nuggets would be frustrated after watching Stephen Curry continue his torrid shooting, tossing up a brilliant 22-point third quarter that completely changed the game.
[Also: Dwight Howard talks about disappointing season, future with Lakers]
"The effort of coming back and trying to keep playing, it was there," Faried said after the game, according to Antonio Gonzalez of The Associated Press. "But when they come down and just hit 3s when you've just crossed half-court, you can't scheme around that. You can't stop that. We just have to find a way to not let them do that.
Understandable or not, one suspects Denver coach George Karl might not be quite so thrilled at his power forward's preferred method of expressing his anger. With the Nuggets now needing to win the last three games of this series to avoid the upset and advance to a second-round matchup with the sure-to-be-well-rested San Antonio Spurs, the Nuggets will need to summon all the poise they can muster before Tuesday night's Game 5 if they hope to become the ninth NBA team ever to overcome a 3-1 postseason deficit — and, at least according to his Twitter account, Faried seems to get that.


As for the hole itself, a big question remains: Will the Oracle Arena maintenance crew patch up the drywall to make the visiting locker room neat and tidy for its next inhabitant — either the Nuggets for an if-necessary Game 6 return on Thursday or the Spurs for Game 3 of the second round? Or will they allow Faried's footprint to remain untouched, as they did with the gash left by the trash can that Dirk Nowitzki heaved against the wall after the eighth-seeded Warriors upset his top-ranked Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2007 postseason? (A "We Believe" T-shirt from the '07 playoff run now hangs over that hole, with Dirk's autograph, inscribed last year, underneath it.) I'm not a betting man, but I'm guessing nobody will be rushing to make any repairs.
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Had a glance at 'Blankets' and it's scary to see all those chumps attempting to analyze the Nuggets/Warriors line...
 
BC, Game 5 was also almost a replicate of Game 5 between Dallas and GSW - with Denver taking a huge lead and GSW making almost a full comeback.
Wonder if Game 6 will be as Game 6 in that series as well...
 
BC, Game 5 was also almost a replicate of Game 5 between Dallas and GSW - with Denver taking a huge lead and GSW making almost a full comeback.
Wonder if Game 6 will be as Game 6 in that series as well...

The only difference was GS's best player (Baron Davis, 27 pts) in 06-07 showed, whereas their best player this time round was MIA (15 pts, all but half of which came way too late in the 4th).
 
as released yesterday...series game 4-5, dog on 2 game streak, won those two games by 8+ combined, against seeds 3+: 12-1 ATS (NOW 13-1), losing once ATS in double OT...
atlanta +6.5 (released yesterday) but i am also taking atlanta +7 today...so basically two plays today...atlanta +6.5 and atlanta +7


under 7.5 in st.lou


maybe more today...
 
Do any of you guys sit back and think, how the fuck Vinny del ***** and Mike D'antoni are the two coaches in the second biggest market in the NBA?
 
Quick thoughts for Wednesday's games - it's the general pattern for the spot NYK & OKC are in to hammer their opponents. Both went up 3-0, and while neither can be said to have taken their respective Game 4s off it can't but be observed that either or both would've swept if a real effort had been put forth.

Boston has been remarkable on offense. Average of 50.0 pts for their highest scoring half (3 times the 1st half), and an avg of 27.2 pts for their lowest scoring half. They have simply proved incapable of stringing together 2 halves offensively. While NYK trailed at the half in both their previous home games in this series, I struggle to believe it'll happen again here. When NYK was in a bit of trouble in game 2 (down 6 at the half), they started the 3rd with a 24-4 run. Hard to think they don't demonstrate a similar period of intensity in this coming game tthat ends up putting this series to bed.

Oklahoma showed up in 1 period of each the last 2 games (39-19 1st G3, 36-24 2nd G4; the other 6 periods saw them lose 5 & win the 6th by 5 pts). I'd imagine they deliver at least 2 dominant periods here at home, which should lead to a DD win. The thought that Houston stays close to these guys (even sans Westbrook) for 4 straight games (the last 3 having been decided by 3, 3 & 2 pt margins) isn't one that appeals to my mind. As far as the total goes, these 2 teams have consistently delivered 205+ pt totals with the lowest period total per game averaging a lousy 39.2 pts (the 2nd lowest total in contrast averages a whopping 51.0 pts). If they avoid such a period here, it's hard to see Over not coming in.

As far as Indy/Atlanta goes, this smells like that Boston/Atlanta series of a few years back when the home team won all the games.
 
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I'm playing the 'over' in NY/Bos tonight (wed) and leaving the rest alone. I'm ready for round 2 already. It's been 2 fuckin weeks of the same shit.

Only two series that are of interest from a viewing standpoint is the Mem/Lac and the Den/Gs.

Good luck degenerates.
 
[h=2]CELTICS AT KNICKS, 7 P.M. ET[/h] May 1, 2013 · 5:40PM
TV: TNT

  • J.R. Smith returns from a one-game suspension after missing Game 4 following his Flagrant Foul-2 elbow of Jason Terry in Game 3. Smith said Tuesday after practice that the Knicks would’ve swept the series had he been on the court in Game 4. “Oh, yeah, it’d been over, it would’ve been over,” he said. “I would’ve been playing golf today.” Knicks coach Mike Woodson said he’s looking forward to getting Smith back. “It’s very important to have him back,” Woodson said. “We missed 18 points the other night. We still put ourselves in position to win a ballgame, but J.R.’s a big piece to the puzzle. I hope he’s learned his lesson. We gotta move on with it and he’s gotta be ready to go tomorrow night.”

  • The Knicks lead the series 3-1 and the Celtics are seeking to become the first team ever to come back from an 0-3 deficit. ”I mean, I think that would be wonderful, and someone’s going to do it and I want it to be us obviously since that’s the situation we’re in. Someone will do it, and I really want to be a part of that,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. If the Celtics win, Game 6 would be Friday night in Boston.

  • The Knicks will start Pablo Prigioni, Raymond Felton, Iman Shumpert, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler.

  • The Celtics will stick with his starting lineup from Game 4 of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, Avery Bradley and Jeff Green.

  • Woodson reiterated that Amar’e Stoudemire could potentially play in the second round. “If we can get through this series tonight we have some days to practice with him and it gives him an opportunity to get some contact and then we’ll evaluate it and see if he can play,” Woodson said.

  • Anthony continues to lead all scorers in the NBA playoffs, averaging 33 points per contest in his first four games. Anthony has only advanced past the first round of the playoffs once in nine postseason appearances.

  • The Knicks are seeking their first playoff series win since 2000.
 
Was gonna 'martingale' the Knicks but Stern has unleashed the Kraken aka Joey C for this game, so an agenda is in order plus every 'fade' on 'Blankets' is riding NYK, that coupled with my weak playoff 'batting average' will keep me off...
 
[h=2]ROCKETS AT THUNDER, 9:30 P.M. ET[/h] May 1, 2013 · 8:47PM
TV: TNT

  • Rockets guard James Harden was ill during shootaround this morning but is feeling better and will play tonight. Center Omer Asik has been sore with an ailing back, but he will also go tonight. “He felt really bad the other night and he had what, 17 points and 14 rebounds? I hope he feels just as bad tonight,” joked Rockets head coach Kevin McHale in the back hallway. McHale said guard Jeremy Lin is feeling better as he recovers from a bruised chest but wasn’t sure if he’d be able to play. If so, McHale said it would be only a few minutes off the bench.
  • An intense atmosphere expected both inside and outside Chesapeake Energy Arena tonight. Thunder fans are expected to greet Rockets guard Patrick Beverley with enthusiastic boos when he’s introuduced in the starting lineup and every time he touches the ball. Beverley crashed into Thunder All-Star Russell Westbrook during a timeout call in Game Two that ledto Westbrook’s season ending knee injury. Beverley, who has spent time playing in Europe where verbal abuse of opposing players is common, seems ready for whatever Thunder fans might say, “it’s going to be fun, I’m looking forward to all the boos,” he said before the game. “I know every time I catch the ball I’m going to hear boos.” Oklahoma City police officers rode the team bus and will be stationed around the Houston bench tonight.
  • About a block down the street from the arena, pickets from the radical Westboro Baptist Church in Kansas are protesting Jason Collins’ revelation that he is Yag. Church supporters have sent threatening messages to Collins and to Thunder forward Kevin Durant, who expressed his support for Collins. Extra security is in place outside the arena.
  • During the regular season, OKC was one of the best teams in the NBA in scoring off the fast break but Westbrook’s absence has clearly affected that. In the first two games of the series, when Westbrook was on the floor, the Thunder scored 45 fast-break points. In the last two games, with Westbrook sidelined, OKC has managed just 15 points in transition. “Russ is a one man fast break sometimes so not having him is gonna put a dip in some of our stats but I think we’re still scoring the ball at a good rate,” Durant said before the game.
  • Thunder head coach Scott Brooks would like to see his team get into the offense a bit quicker and avoid scramble plays at the end of the shot clock, “we wanna get into it quicker, not neccessarily take a quick shot but get into the offense quicker so we’ll have an extra four or five seconds on the back end of the clock to make some extra passes.”
  • In 44 regular-season games over the last two seasons OKC’s Derek Fisher shot 34 percent overall and 34 percent on 3-pointers. In his 24 postseason games with the Thunder, Fisher is shooting 43 percent overall and 43 percent on 3-pointers. In this series against the Rockets Fisher is 10-for-18 (55.6 percent) overall and 8-for-13 (61.5 percent) on 3-pointers.
  • Harden is just 4-for-25 (16 percent) on 3-pointers in the series.
 
McHale said guard Jeremy Lin is feeling better as he recovers from a bruised chest but wasn’t sure if he’d be able to play. If so, McHale said it would be only a few minutes off the bench.

Bollocks. They know he's sucks and is costing them bigtime, so he's been dropped and the rest is all a smokescreen.
 
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