Den/Gs total is what interests me Tuesday. Here's why -
When it comes to looking at betting totals deep into a series, aside from the elimination game angle what I try and look for is to see what, if any, kind of pattern the 2 teams concerned are "working out" between themselves. Looking at this series, to me it's interesting to note that of the 4 scorelines put up thus far, the 2 "middle of the road" totals (216 & 218 pts) have played out in Oakland, and the 2 extreme totals have played out in Denver (192 & 248 pts). So the immediate question that comes to mind is where will this Game 5 total land? At one end of the extremes (as per the previous games in Denver), or will Denver "finally" host a middle of the road affair?
The way this series has played out tickled something in my memory, so I went back & had a look at GS's last 1st round playoff series (vs Dallas, 06-07). While they're completely diff. GS teams, that's not the reason for my referencing that series here. It's the way it played out as a general pattern that interests me. Here's how the totals panned out for that series (Game 1 first, obv./GS road games bolded/could only find closing lines/GS's score 1st)...
182 (213.5) 97-85
211 (211.0) 99-112
200 (210.5) 109-91
202 (206.5) 103-99
230 (205.5) 112-118
197 (208.5) 111-86
Back then, as is the case now, GS went up 3-1 on Dallas then took to the road for Game 5. As can be seen quite clearly, they had their worst defensive outing in a game that was the purest freebie they got in that series (while Game 6 was also a kind of freebie - they could still afford to lose it as well and still not lose the series - to my mind a Game 6 for a team up 3-2 is not nearly as much a freebie as a Game 4 or 5 is for a team with 3 wins on the board. Knowing losing a Game 6 leads to your facing a potential elimination from the playoffs, is a situation to my mind that leads to a bit more psychological urgency than knowing - as a 3 wins team - if you lose (a game 4 or 5) you simply move onto another game with your own potential elimination still nowhere in sight). Clearly this current Game 5 is a freebie for GS. Now sometimes freebie games can lead to lax efforts (cue NYK's Game 4 vs Boston, where any decent effort from NYK likely would've swept Boston with a regulation win) on the part of the team with the free pass before them, and that lax (code for energyless) effort is what many a freebie elimination game Under result is founded upon. But here, as with that 06-07 affair, I think GS's players will be too energised by their results to date in this series for them to put up a mailed-in effort (it must be pointed out that's exactly how they started that 06-07 Game 5: they trailed by 10 after 1 & trailed by up to 20 in the 2nd period, before a second wind for them resulted in their eventually leading by 6 with 2:15 to go).
These 2 teams have 4 playoff games in the books, on top of 4 regular season meetings. Only 2 of those 8 games have played out as the classic kind of scoring contest (namely 220+ point affairs) you'd expect to routinely see when 2 *no defense* teams such as these (GS 19th, DEN 23rd ranked Ds: only LAL 22nd & HOU 28th were worse to make the playoffs) match up. Notably, those 2 exceptions took place in Denver: a reg. season game won 116-105 by the Nuggets, and the Warriors 131-117 Game 2 win. And the way the scoring has panned out in this series...
192
248
218 (212.0)
216 (211.5)
???
???
I can see eventually mirroring that 06-07 series to a T. We get a Game 5 scoreline falling in alongside the 3 previous affairs (at a guess, in the 220s: Denver wins something like 114-109/117-107), before the series coughs up just an ugly an affair as it started matters with. GS, as the better team in this series (who can argue with results? they could've swept to this point), has the freebie for game 5, which means they've no great pressure to bring their best defense. Denver, as any team under pressure is forced to do, has to bring their best to the table. For them, that means offense. That doesn't mean they won't bring energy to defense, but teams under pressure don't lead with what they're weakest at. They lead with their strengths.
Also, I note with interest that the last 2 games had a single "low" scoring period which "hid" the otherwise overall decent socring rates involved: a fact that meant the final scorelines finished close to the number, and make those games seem more detached from Game 2's scoring than they really were. To wit
Game 3 had a 47 pt 4th period. Excise that effort and the average scoring from the other 3 periods leads to a full 4 period avg of 228.0 pts.
Game 4 had a 46 pt 1st period. Excise that effort and the average scoring from the other 3 periods leads to a full 4 period avg of 226.5 pts.
What makes Game 4 especially interesting is while Curry was spectacular, he really only put in 1 period of offensive effort. In the 1st-2nd-4th periods combined he only made 5 total attempts that didn't result in shooting fouls (& 2 attempts which did lead to FTs). And yet he still totaled 31 pts. Naturally Game 4's "low" scoring 1st period came at a time when Curry was all but a no-show offensively. I struggle to believe he'll put in 2 straight 1-period efforts.
Finally, I see this line has dropped a couple of points from its 213.5 open. Maybe some minds are seeing that Game 1 scoreline (in Denver) and think elimination game/tight affair/repeat city. Such dynamics applied no less for the Game 5 from that 06-07 series (then that game 5 line was 6 points lower than for the previous game played in Dallas), and that game saw the highest scoring affair of all 6 games played. IMO, teams playing freebie cards (games 4 &/or 5 for teams w/3 wins on the board) are not the elimination games to bank on ugly affairs (esp. not when the teams involved natural styles are what they are here). GS can afford to play fast & loose, and if Denver wants to keep this series alive then they have no choice but to lead with their strength, which is naturally fast & loose. I've got live betting for this one, so where this would be a normal sized bet for me, it only makes sense for me to place a small bet pre-game (If they start slow, well at most I give this game - as with the last 2 - 1 ugly period. Line drops, I'll hit the lower number even harder in-game) then I'll never see something as low as 211.5 ever again (but with the line dropping, I'll wait until closer to gametime to place it. Might hit 210 or less yet).