NBA ML dogs Monday & Tuesday

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 26-27, 49.06%, +24.26 units

For Monday, I gotta look at Atlanta because Utah blows goats on the road, they've been generally blowing goats recently, and MehMet Okur is out.

Acie Law, Salim Stoudamire, and Josh Childress are Questionable, doubtful, and doubtful.

heh. I probably won't look for long, but I do gotta give em some thought.

Definitely gotta give anyone, even Minnesota, a look at Miami...especially because this one should still make the Heat significant faves.

Also gotta consider Milwaukee as Cleveland has blown some goats recently too. And Milwaukee already beat em 111-107 at Cleveland as a 6.5pt dog.

Pacers @ Knicks

I expect about a pick'em. My guess is they're waiting for news of Jermaine O'neal. He's questionable after leaving Saturday's game with a sore neck.

Stephon Marbury is probable. We'll see if he's really ready to play again. Whiever team is a dog, I gotta give some thought.

I fully expect Portland to be a dog again. If they are, then I fully plan to play them. I hope there's value...

Orlando/Dallas and Phoenix/San Antonio shouldn't present value. that's my guess, anyway...

haroom...I may not have time to look at this shit, but maybe I'll get into some for today. I do think a couple dogs will win. Just gotta figure out which ones...

 

[Satyr]

Several of my locals have the line out and the Pacers are at -2 to -2,5 here.

ML pays around 1.70. So not what we expected to be honest...

Portland are 2.10 and Spurs 1.65.

All SU odds. Just FYI.


GL Red

 

[redbearde]

satyr, how do I convert those to american odds I understand?

 

[outstanding]

1.7 -> -143

1.65 -> -154

2.1 -> +110

 

[hauntEd]

satyr, how do I convert those to american odds I understand?

it works like this:

for example, if european odds are 1.94 then yo go with 100/0,94= 106
so 1.94 = -106

when you have +2.00 odds, u just do the opposite

ex. odds= 2.45 .... so 100 x,1.45 = 145 -> +145

 

[redbearde]

thanks guys.

I missed out on playing Milwaukee cus I got home later than I hoped/thought I would.

I am playing Minnesota. The Heat shouldn't be 4:1 faves to anyone.

T'wolves +392

I don't plan on watching that game, as I expect the frustration factor will be very high. Who knows, the Heat are certainly CAPABLE of blowing them out by 35. Thing is, they haven't played like that all year.

here's some perspective for you...

Minnesota is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games at home

Miami has the second worst rebounds in the league at 39.5.

Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.

Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Heat are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.

Again, VERY often when a team loses ATS, they lose SU. This is an example of a game where that may very well not be the case - 10 points is a big range. But for 4:1, I'll take my chances.

Suns +111.72

I agree with BAR about this one - unfortunately, I got a shit line. Nonetheless, I'm calling this one a ML dog instead of a pk spread.

Tony Parker is out. They should be able to hide Nash on the defensive end.

Francisco Elson is out. This reduces their interior numbers.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/...ries/MYSA121707.SpursNotebook.en.269310a.html

We'll see how it goes.

:shake:

 

[JPicks]

Like both of those doggies red. GL tonight.

 

[redbearde]

Thanks Jpicks. Woulda been nice for Minny to actually finish a 4th Q, but they just don't like to do that.

...course the creative officiating didn't help. D Wade with 20 FTs by himself...Minny with 33 fouls, and Miami with 19. riiiight.

1-1 is still winning a smidge, tho...

on to Tuesday.

Only one I like is Sacramento, but it might be asking a lot to get 2:1 on that game. It's already moved down to 4.5 at a lot of places.

The Net have been remarkably bad recently....

Boki Nachbar still hasn't returned to practice, and the expectation is that he misses tonight's game.

Vince Carter is questionable with his tweaked sore ankle.

Marcus Williams may very well play, but weren't they saying that a few days ago?

I don't have a link for these yet, but I'm sure it'll show up on rotoworld before long. well, this one mentions Nachbar:

http://www.nj.com/nets/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/1197871353306150.xml&coll=1

Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

New Jersey is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Jersey is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
New Jersey is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
New Jersey is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home

Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Sacramento has the second worst rebounds in the league at 39.5.
New Jersey is the worst offensive team in the league averaging just 90.6 points per game.
New Jersey has the third worst field goal percentage in the league at 42.6.

Nets go get a win at Miami on Thursday.
Kings go to Milwaukee tomorrow.

 

[Satyr]

On the Kings myself Red, let's get em (if you decide to take them)


:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Kings +200

this might keep going up, but I have to go out for a while. GL tonight, gentlemen.

 

[redbearde]

oh good. up to 210 now at bookmaker.

:hang:

 

[redbearde]

for Wednesday...

as fun as it is to fade Utah, I'm not sure I can do it with Charlotte. I don't think 2:1 is worth it at any rate, and that's about what I think we'll see. at 3:1 I might have to start thinking about it.

Now, the 76ers...that's a different matter. At +6, we could very well see 30 to 50 cents on top of 2:1, and I think that is very worth a shot at a pacers loss.

I played the Hawks at a pk, and it's still there at bookmaker. At least that's what they're advertising. it's Hawks -1.5 everywhere else, so if you like Atlanta hosting the Heat tomorrow, then go ahead and get the pk'm at bookmaker.

Bulls @ Wizards. Bulls +4.5 should yield around 160-180. depending on bettor interest, of course, and at 2:1, I think I'm really obligated to play the bulls - they've been better recently, and I still think the Bullets have a problem at PG...their last win notwithstanding...

Pistons @ Cs...+6.......go ask BAR. I likely won't play this one because it smells like one that has equal chance of all 3 outcomes. ML dog, dog cover, chalk cover......I just have no clue. Under 180 might be worthwhile.

Cavs @ Knicks. If Stephon sits, then I might consider playing the Knicks. Otherwise, fuggit.

Spurs @ Grizz. Oh I think not.

Warriors @ Twolves. 7.5 is a lot, but I do think the Warriors will win. No play here.

Kings @ Bucks. I think this line is fair. No play.

Magic@ Rockets. Orlando +4 must be assuming Lewis won't play. If Rafer doesn't either, then I gotta take the Magic as ANY sort of dog. With any luck, the line'll even rise for me, and I'll get plenty of value for the attempt.

Suns @ Mavs. I don't like it. I won't play it. The issue for every mavs game is will they shoot 60% or 40%...they're fully capable of doing either on any give night, and it's damned hard to predict such irritating unpredictability.

Raptors @ Blazers. Shit. I can't play the blazers as ML dogs if they aren't dogs...LeMarcus Aldridge comes back, and that'll put Frye back on the bench. Blazers'll lose anyway .....no play.

Hornets @ Sonics - gotta consider the sonics with no Peja and Rasual Butler getting more minutes. Neither of those things is good for the Hornets. Still, not much value in taking Seattle here. They're still a remarkable 3-8 at home.

So I'm looking at:

Philly ML
Knicks ML (if no Steph)
Orlando ML (if no Rafer Alston - and already assuming Rashard Lewis is out)
Sonics ML (if there's value)

Hawks pk (-110)

we'll see tomorrow if there's any use in taking any of them.

 

[abcs]

Kings +200

this might keep going up, but I have to go out for a while. GL tonight, gentlemen.

:cheers: abcs

 

[redbearde]

abcs, you got a good pic of my good side.

:shake:

 

[Retburj13]

sweet call bud

 

[redbearde]

thanks retburj.

looks like Stephon Marbury is playing, so no Knicks for me.

Rafer Alston planned on practicing Tuesday and playing Wednesday.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/5386213.html

Alston has missed three of the past four games — all losses — with a strained groin muscle and was held out of Monday's practice. He said he expects to be able to practice today and to play Wednesday.

But with Wednesday's game beginning a stretch of four games in five nights, the Rockets are being cautious with Alston's injury.

I'd expect him to play, so no Orlando Play for me...much as I'd like to. Looks like Rashard Lewis will be playing though....

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/5389328.html

"I had a pain going down my neck and into my back," Lewis said. "My neck got real stiff. The doctor told me I need to sit out two, three, maybe four games in a row for it to heal 100 percent, but right now, we're in a situation where if we can get a couple wins and maybe relax a little more, maybe I will sit out.

"I'm not as mobile as I want to be. It has taken away a little of my athleticism. Sometimes I run down the court, I can only look over my left shoulder. Even when I'm defending guys, if they attack me to my right shoulder, it's hard to turn my head."

115 to 130 isn't value for a shit team like the Sonics. That oughta be upwards of 150. So no Seattle.

That leaves me with the 76ers, and I do see some value there. supposedly, it opened at 2:1, and it's risen about a 25 cents over that. I may have to leave before I se the number I want, and if so then I'll put in an offer at 2.5:1. If I get it, great. If not, no big deal.

I do have the Hawks pk tonight...I might just roll with that.

 

[abcs]

:cheers:

 

[abcs]

Red should have never been that close.. Hawks had that game all night.

 

[redbearde]

hahaha...you and your pics of me...

in the early games, every damn dog won EXCEPT the 76ers...hahaha. good thing no one matched my offer of 256.....not surprising really. Sacramento even beat Milwaukee, and Memphis squeaked by the Spurs (after being up on them by 23, the Spurs battled back to TIE the game with less than 3 seconds left. Yag hit a last second 3 to get the win.

Late games aren't even in the second half yet, but thus far I missed out on a lot of wins. Thing is, the lot of them didn't have the sort of value in them to bother playing. Obviously if I knew they were going to win I'd play them, but it's a value gig. If the chance to win is 30%, ad I'm only getting +130, it's stupid for me to play it, and sometimes those win even when the line value isn't there.

anyway, the Hawks managed to hold on even when it was 5 on 8, so I'm still in a good mood for the night. I managed to make more than we spent today, and that's quite something when the wife felt the need to do Christmas shopping.

in other news, we scattered the wife's grandpa's ashes today...the family seems to be healing.

Rafer Alston just missed an easy layup.

:36_11_6:

...the sad thing is I *still* believe he's an important part of their offense.

what a sad state of affairs there is in Houston.

 

[abcs]

lmao.. good thing they got rid of jvg

LMAO the problem is tmac , hes a loser.. always has been

 

[redbearde]

oh look! The Heat are actually faves to a team they SHOULD be faves to....the NETS!

heh. looks like a day off for me tomorrow. It's probably for the best. I always seem to lose on Thursdays.

 

[abcs]

What is the cle vs la line? In my capping index i have it as lal -4

 

[redbearde]

lmao.. good thing they got rid of jvg

LMAO the problem is tmac , hes a loser.. always has been

you sound like a guy I know who swears up and down that the problem in LA is Kobe......

 

[redbearde]

What is the cle vs la line? In my capping index i have it as lal -4

http://lines.sbrlines.com/odds/nba/game/pointspread.html

varies from -1.5(pinny and greek) to +1(betjamaica)

 

[abcs]

wow I think the Lakers are playing great ball and are much deeper than Cleveland right now. Would be shocked to see Cleveland stay as favs

The problem in la is odom.. he sucks

 

[redbearde]

totally agree. if he keeps playing like he has been with this missing layups and FTs, he won't be playing much longer.

:shake: