NBA ML Dogs 3.15

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 79-138, 36.41%, +18.07 units
Spreads: 161-156-15, 48.49%, +1.96 units

Didn't see the Magic showing up against the Jazz...glad I didn't lay that chalk.

Cleveland is really on a tear...without Lebron on the 3rd, but still winning by 25...kicking ass every night.

Charlotte beat SacK...hahahaha...hang your heads, Queens. BE ASHAMED.

on to the 15th...

At first glance, I like the Spurs -6.5, Miami ML, & Nuggets -4.

Spurs have been murderous while the Bucks' coach just got pink slipped. Miami's been damned good recently, and the Nets are coming home off a long road trip. Half the Lakers squad is still injured, and it looks like the Nuggets might finally be coming together.

May not play any, but I'm not betting a thing right now (or I mighta layed the Stones chalk). Kinda tired, long day, kid's been howling most of the day, and my nerves are frazzled.

Opinions on Thursday's games anyone? I know many will be concentrating on the Tourney...I am not one of those.
 
At first glance I'd recommend checking the status of many of those Lakers. They lost Cook yesterday or today, but they've got Brown back and will have Odom and Walton back on Thursday as well. Turiaf is back if that has any impact at all besides a bit of extra depth. Cook never really played with the whole team healthy so I'd say they're about 100% right now. All that said it's going to take an adjustment for them to get back in flow with each other. Not sure I want to get involved at all. Over looks attractive as I can see Kobe getting his and the other guys pitching in as well. Before all the injuries the Lakers were a pretty strong over team and coupled with a matchup with Denver I can easily see a 112-107 game.

Like the Spurs as well. I'd probably be more interested in the 1st half as the Bucks go to bed tonight they have no idea who's going to be coaching them tonight. Only problem with this game is that I hate when a team gets emberassed at home and plays the next game at home as a dog. They have the players to hang in this game if they put forth their best effort. Almost betting on the mind frame of the bucks. Have to read the jsonline.com tomorrow and look at some quotes.

No play whatsoever on Nets/Heat. The Nets happen to get hot at times and I refuse to fade them when they're hot. Miami's turnaround has come on their homecourt. I'm interested to see how they fair out on the road.

GL with whatever you decide.
 
Thanks for your thoughts. Playing on injury reports is always something of a crapshoot...case in point, Jermaine O'neal last night. As you say tho, it might take them a while to get back into the flow. I was planning on waiting for tomorrow to make any wagers (with the possible exception of the Spurs).

Regarding the Nets...I'm not so sure the Nets winning at Memphis (who doesn't?) and then winning at that Hornets qualifies as getting hot. Now, if they win against the Heat at home tonight, then I guess I'll have to say the 3 game streak might be close to being "hot". This has been quite the road trip (6 games, and if you include travel for the first B2B, they've been on the road since the start of March) for the Nets, though, and here they are on the first game back home.

03/03/2007 vs Boston L 96 - 88 L (-5½) U (197½)
03/04/2007 at Philadelphia L 99 - 86 L (1) U (190)
03/06/2007 at Dallas L 102 - 89 L (12) U (193)
03/09/2007 at Houston L 112 - 91 L (7½) O (185½)
03/10/2007 at San Antonio L 93 - 77 L (11½) U (187½)
03/12/2007 at Memphis W 113 - 102 W (-2½) O (206)
03/13/2007 at New Orleans W 112 - 108 W (5) O (191)
03/15/2007 vs Miami N/A

This is an additional factor to my belief that Miami is a better team than the Nets. Against teams who play defense (I think Miami qualifies, now) and have a strong interior game, they've had a lot of trouble. Against finesse teams like the Hornets and Memphis, they competed better and managed wins.

What I don't like, a LOT, about this game...on December 29th, the Heat hosted the Nets as 2pt dogs. The Nets won 91-81. So now, the Heat have been on a 7 game win streak (granted it's been at home except for the Bullets - and for that one 2/3 of Washington's offense wasn't playing), they haven't lost this month, and while Mikki Moore just had a good game, he has no chance at all against either Shaw or Zo...and Clifford Robinson has sat out the last few games with a sore knee...... and now the Heat are 2.5pt dogs AT NJ? I think at least 6pt would be more appropriate, but then again here I am singing the praises of the Heat. In my mind, the only way the Nets win is if they shoot over 50%, and Kidd, VC, and RJ have good to great games. BUT the line for the Nets should still be higher than 2ish, and it's got me scratching my head.

I don't believe Shaq has been playing "above his ability" or any crap like that, because he's been doing it consistently since the game after Wade went down. In his worst games he still gets a double double, and he's thrown up some numbers that rival his primetime dominance.

When Shaq went down, they were on the road, so it took them several games to get some new plays, new styles, and new cohesion put together - and then there were a series of other injuries that screwed up that cohesion. When Wade went down, they lost to Houston and then Dallas, won at home against Cleveland, and then lost at New York. After beating the Bullets, they went home and finally got their shit together against lesser teams than the Rockets and Mavericks. ...lesser teams like Detroit, Chicago, and a helluva streaking Utah.

Kapono is still injured and out, but hell, he was shitty as a runny ass before he got hurt. What was he...like 5 of his last 28 before the injury? No wonder that didn't cause a slump in point production. On the contrary, those shots he was missing previously are now falling with other guys taking them.

Payton and J-Will are doing fine at Guard, overall depth isn't a problem...Shaq is going nuts, kicking ass, and taking names, and the forwards are damned near interchangeable at this point.

I think there are a few teams better than the Heat, but almost no one is playing better than them on a night in night out basis.

Still, I expect[ed] more value out of this line, and I'm concerned that by tomorrow I won't have anything to bet on.

...still ruminating...
 
yeah...lots of Lakers coming back for Thursday. Perhaps a good Nuggets 2H bet cus those guys likely won't be as well-conditioned....

but it certainly should discount recent performance woes by the Lakers. Can't bet that game right now...just can't.
 
of note for the Spurs @ MilK:

Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central
Spurs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Bucks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Thu. games
Bucks are 1-4 ATS & SU in their last 5 games


Bucks last 10:
02/21/2007 at Indiana L 136 - 129 P (7) O (200)
02/23/2007 at New York L 95 - 93 W (3½) U (207½)
02/24/2007 vs Philadelphia W 109 - 90 W (-6½) O (197½)
02/27/2007 vs Golden State W 122 - 101 W (-6) O (218)
03/02/2007 at Toronto W 94 - 81 W (5) U (208)
03/04/2007 vs Chicago L 126 - 121 L (-2) O (197½)
03/05/2007 at Orlando L 99 - 81 L (5½) U (199½)
03/07/2007 vs LA Lakers W 110 - 90 W (-9) U (201½)
03/10/2007 vs Cleveland L 94 - 92 L (-1) U (195)
03/12/2007 vs Toronto L 108 - 93 L (-4½) U (205)

Spurs last 10:
02/21/2007 at Atlanta W 103 - 96 L (-8) O (181)
02/24/2007 vs Seattle W 102 - 71 W (-10) U (200½)
02/26/2007 vs Toronto W 107 - 91 W (-7½) O (188)
03/02/2007 vs Orlando W 98 - 74 W (-11½) U (185)
03/03/2007 at Houston W 97 - 74 W (-3½) U (176½)
03/05/2007 at LA Clippers W 88 - 74 W (-6½) U (173½)
03/06/2007 at Portland W 99 - 94 L (-7) O (179)
03/08/2007 at Sacramento W 100 - 93 L (-8½) P (193)
03/10/2007 vs New Jersey W 93 - 77 W (-11½)U (187½)
03/13/2007 vs LA Clippers W 93 - 84 L (-12½) P (177)

Bucks Last 10 at home:
02/06/2007 vs Orlando W 116 - 111 W (1½) O (191)
02/10/2007 vs Denver L 109 - 102 L (-3) O (209½)
02/13/2007 vs Dallas L 99 - 93 W (10) U (198½)
02/20/2007 vs Detroit L 84 - 83 W (5) U (193½)
02/24/2007 vs Philadelphia W 109 - 90 W (-6½) O (197½)
02/27/2007 vs Golden State W 122 - 101 W (-6) O (218)
03/04/2007 vs Chicago L 126 - 121 L (-2) O (197½)
03/07/2007 vs LA Lakers W 110 - 90 W (-9) U (201½)
03/10/2007 vs Cleveland L 94 - 92 L (-1) U (195)
03/12/2007 vs Toronto L 108 - 93 L (-4½) U (205)

Spurs Last 10 on the road:
02/07/2007 at Washington W 110 - 83 W (-4½) U (203)
02/09/2007 at Orlando L 106 - 104 L (-6½) O (181½)
02/11/2007 at Miami L 100 - 85 L (-2½) U (188)
02/13/2007 at New Jersey W 107 - 82 W (-9) O (180)
02/14/2007 at Detroit W 90 - 81 W (3½) U (180½)
02/21/2007 at Atlanta W 103 - 96 L (-8) O (181)
03/03/2007 at Houston W 97 - 74 W (-3½) U (176½)
03/05/2007 at LA Clippers W 88 - 74 W (-6½) U (173½)
03/06/2007 at Portland W 99 - 94 L (-7) O (179)
03/08/2007 at Sacramento W 100 - 93 L (-8½) P (193)

Come to any conclusion you think is appropriate. But I think the Spurs have been crushing average to weak opponents (unless they shoot 60% like Portland), and Milwaukee hasn't been beating much of anyone recently, even while healed, except for a thoroughly weak Lakers team.

:shake:
 
okay, I'm tired now. talk more tomorrow. Maybe.

sleep2.gif
 
These early games should go under the radar with the NCAA tourny on Thursday. I'd probably play WITH the line movement on each 8pm game. You can get the Heat at + money over NJ. Great value. And I believe teams on the 1st game after a coach firing fare VERY well. I'd grab the points w/ Millw. and take a little with the ML too.

GL!
 
The Spurs have won 13 in a row. In their first 9 games they were 8-1 ats. In their last 4 they are 1-3 ats. The Bucks last 10 at home versus Spurs were 7-3 su and 8-2 ats. Recnt home games see them losing by 6 to Dallas at home, losing by 2 to Chicago and 4 to Cleveland. Spurs last 10 on the road on Thursday are 8-2 su and 4-5-1 ats. Last 10 home games by Bucks on Thursday they were 7-3 su and 4-6 ats. See nothing really clear here but lean Bucks. Think Spurs in a ml parlay possible but just flatly unwilling to lay points here.
Denver spot worthy of note. After this game they play the Suns who have beaten them 4 out of last 5 at Denver and then play a 5 game road trip. First road game is NJ where they are 1-9 last 0 and then they get to play Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland and Detroit. Very seriously after the Lakers they are likely to lose 6 straight. The Lakers after this game face Portland at home the next day and i am not sure Jackson could live thru another home loss to Portland so priorities for this game look a little different to me,
I think the NJ line is fairly honest. Heat have been playing great at home but are 3-7 last 10 on the road and are 7-3 su and ats last 10 at NJ but Wade was averaging a little over 30 points and slightly over 9 assists in the last 3 of those games. The books put at a small line that is unlikely looking at the win loss records of those teams at those spreads to make any difference and they expect some move on the Heat but think true chances are pic so at least they get money in play. Have made no bet myself as yet. GL
 
Has there ever been a team to get this deep into a season without recording a win while totaling less than 100 points? Denver is 0-17 SU when scoring 99 or less this season.
 
I agree redbearde. Sounds like you really like the Heat and everything you're wrote seems solid enough. You'd be kicking yourself tomorrow if you didn't play them. GL tonight.
 
BC. You've thrown alot of stats out there before, but that's one of the craziest ones I've seen so far.
 
I think the Heat take it tonight, not sure if ill play it. Im on the san an -6.5 and I think Den-4 is the right play as well. gl redbeard
 
I'm seeing Denver -5 now. How fucking high will his shit go with all the uncertainty in that game??!?!

Heat is at +125 at 5dimes reduced juice right now for any who want it.
 
I am having a very happy day.

I've won the MD/Davidson Under (miraculously) off of IC's tip, and Texas A&M -13 off of Fondy's thread. The third game I bought off of. If UNC covers, I break even on it, and if Eastern Kentucky covers (which I think is likely), then I will lose 2% of a unit. Consequently, I don't want to throw away most of a good day when so many folken here I respect are on the Nets.

I bought off about half my spread bet.

I still have:

Heat +115 2 units
Heat +1.5 (-109) to win just over 1 unit

I still think I'm right (much more confident than the Tarheel crapshoot), but if this loses I'll still have over half what I won today, and I'm thrilled.

reallyhappy.gif


hope everyone else made or will make some money today!
 
that's something...hehe. You're one of those folks I respect who is opposite me on this one...

GL to me!

=)
 
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