Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
right? incredibly misleading.
anyhow, 16 to 17 is a good line for this game. i ended up teasing it with others, so i wouldn't end up laying the points later.
Week 0 & 1 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
right? incredibly misleading.
anyhow, 16 to 17 is a good line for this game. i ended up teasing it with others, so i wouldn't end up laying the points later.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Wasn’t that Memphis win the game where the refs missed two calls that basically accounted for Memphis’ last 2 TDs? Think it was they missed 2 players with same number on the field together and then a clearly down returner on a punt that went for a TD?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Something like that, I know it was wild but I couldn’t remember the details outside of a punt return being a big deal.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I've heard a lot of people who like UCLA this year...I'm not that into them. I thought last year they were loaded and poised for an impressive season. But they disappointed as they always do, I mean 8-4 is good and all, but lost 3x as favorites being outgained in all 3.
I know people point to the schedule and it does set up very well for them which builds confidence and work out any wrinkles allow new players to get acclimated and all. Just looking at the personnel losses, and there are many quality players to replace, I will have to see them to believe them this year before I would buy them.
Bowling Green to beat them? Man, I don't think I can go there. BGSU showed really strong improvement last year and does have very nearly everyone back...but upset? It would be awesome if it could happen!
I know people point to the schedule and it does set up very well for them which builds confidence and work out any wrinkles allow new players to get acclimated and all. Just looking at the personnel losses, and there are many quality players to replace, I will have to see them to believe them this year before I would buy them.
Bowling Green to beat them? Man, I don't think I can go there. BGSU showed really strong improvement last year and does have very nearly everyone back...but upset? It would be awesome if it could happen!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
FCS upsets over FBS?
Delaware vs Navy - out of character season last year for Delaware. New HC, but kept DC...D coaching and personnel might give them a chance, might be good to look see if they have option experience.
Nicholls vs South Alabama - I don't know much about Nicholls, but know they are solid program and have given some FBS teams some trouble (Louisiana, Kansas, aTm in 2017, UGA 2016)
SE La vs Louisiana - SE La also decent program, nearly beat LaTech last year (150 more yards), lost by 3 at Louisiana in 2017 despite 150 more yards! They do have a big loss at QB this year though.
Not sure I like UC Davis over Cal.
Delaware vs Navy - out of character season last year for Delaware. New HC, but kept DC...D coaching and personnel might give them a chance, might be good to look see if they have option experience.
Nicholls vs South Alabama - I don't know much about Nicholls, but know they are solid program and have given some FBS teams some trouble (Louisiana, Kansas, aTm in 2017, UGA 2016)
SE La vs Louisiana - SE La also decent program, nearly beat LaTech last year (150 more yards), lost by 3 at Louisiana in 2017 despite 150 more yards! They do have a big loss at QB this year though.
Not sure I like UC Davis over Cal.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Seems like a good time to fade Louisiana.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was looking at Illinios until I remembered I can’t bet their games. Sucks cause I def liked to fade Hoosiers laying points. Lot of guys I respect seem to be on pitt but I’m with you I def lean wvu and I’m usually a big pitt guy, I just think there a path for both teams to be in the 20-24 range so getting 7 points very appealing to me, I like wvu coach and think they will be better with doege gone and Daniels in, if he can stay healthy I think the offense gets better. Pitt front is always nasty but when you block them the secondary can be had imo. Wvu oline should be pretty solid, think they will hold up at times. Those only 2 on list I’ve looked real closely at thus far.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
I'm a Bruin fan in SoCal, and I'll believe it when I see it. Can't count the times they've gotten my hopes up over the decades. Bottom line, they're an 8 win team. They should be 5-1 once Utah pounds them, as I think they'll probably beat UW...then after the buy, they'll go 3-3 down the stretch. With good health, and an upset (of ASU or USC), maybe 9 wins...but that's pushing it. The UW game could go either way, tbh...and if they stumble with health/etc, Stanford could/will take them too...so worst case is only 7 wins.
Bowling Green won't beat them, but the cover looks decent. I've got this as a 20-24 pt win, but I do lean towards (like) the under here. Think a veteran BG team/defense will give lots of teams issues, including this Bruin offense.
Even though the Bruins don't return much on defense, it will be relatively ok. Even Steele says they'll be close to last year. The teams with great QBs will be the ones that carve them up, at least when the Bruins can't control things with their run game.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Week 0 Dog MLs now out at BOL...
Leaning towards putting something small down like 50 on each of the following 3 but not quite sold yet...Maybe I will just use some of the FP money once my deposits go through...Thoughts?
Northwestern +395
Charlotte +230
NMSU +285
Leaning towards putting something small down like 50 on each of the following 3 but not quite sold yet...Maybe I will just use some of the FP money once my deposits go through...Thoughts?
Northwestern +395
Charlotte +230
NMSU +285
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Going to try to get some info on Nicholls St...Do they play this week or next?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Buddy is a coach at Nicholls for another sport and surprisingly said coaching staffs don't interact much. He did say the grumbling around there is the football team is expected to take a couple steps back this season so at least that gives an idea of the temperature of the fan base.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Those pretty much the ones I like best week 0 but don’t feel all that great bout any of them. I tried to talk myself into nmst for days, love the idea of fading Nevada but still think they have more than nmst unfortunately. I doubt I’m doing much outside maybe some beer money week 0, week 1 has so much more betting appeal to me where I actually think there some stronger teams I trust getting points.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Northwestern line now down to 12 and 345 ML
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They the one I’m most likely to play, probably just with the points tho.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Kinda thinking same thing. I’m just not sure that nmst will be able to deal w Wolfpack 2 rbs? one the few positions who came back. This game was a crazy shootout last year, strong lean to under 50 this time as think Nevada gonna be much more a rushing team this year.,
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Can you play them? Illinois team.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Honestly it might not break my heart If I’m forced not to play them! But I know I want to play Illini in Indiana and think they might be live dog several times this year so I prob will put little bit offshore, then I can play some halftimes/live also without driving back over.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
NW will be the most lucrative team from the state this year unless you just play Illini overs. My hunch anyway.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Could be, Illini not getting much respect either being 4-6 point dogs to Hoosiers who I think everyone agrees is on a massive slide back to mediocrity. I think they could be pretty decent, im still not sure on NW, they will no doubt be better and will prob get back to pulling a upset or 2 nobody sees coming but not sure how they be overall? I really don’t know that I love them in week 0, I do think Ireland prob favors them just cause I’d expect Fitzgarold to have them ready. Corn offense might take a little time as it appears they drastically changing offensive philosophy.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm not into a one game breakdown. They are 7-4 against the spread at worst this year. Breaking down a game against Nebraska has no appeal to me.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
There really no sense going round in circles on this as our capping methods couldn’t be any more different!! Lol, Not saying either better than the other, it just what works for me. I like that we go about it so differently, doesn’t do me much good discussing with ppl who have similar philosophies! I always like when we line up on a play cause feel like that means there many things to like bout that given side!
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Rest of the dog lines are up at BM...
Here are a few more than I am leaning towards but again nothing played yet...
ODU +222
Colorado +321
MTSU +207
UNT +281
Memphis +477
Cincy +218
Here are a few more than I am leaning towards but again nothing played yet...
ODU +222
Colorado +321
MTSU +207
UNT +281
Memphis +477
Cincy +218
carolinablue
College Football Guru
If I played these 6 plus the 3 below, I would basically need 3 to hit in order to turn a profit on the dogs...based on the lines involved, will basically need 1 out of 3 to hit no matter what size card I play, but not sure if I should go with smaller (say 3 and shoot for 1-2) or larger (say 9 and shoot for 3-6). Most likely would use free play money for these but open to ideas, thanks!
NW +342
UNCC +230
NMSU +256
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Other than the general excitement and fun of being on a good upset is the concept of profit by winning 1-of-3 ML bets. The other side though, the days I go 0-3, or something like 1-5. So I would just say if you play the six or the nine, I wouldn't discourage it because plenty of upsets can and do happen. However if those 6 or 9 happen to be the wrong ones just ensure you're comfortable with the downside of potentially losing that many should they not hit. The days I get skunked get disheartening at times. I'd assume winning 1,2 or 3 would offset the loses, but sometimes I don't win enough to offset. Just like anything else, seems like the more MLs I play shotgunning them out, the harder it has been to make money overall.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Yeah, those 0-9 dog days are brutal but just go with the territory so although I hate when it happens, the reality is it does/will. I am not a dog player by any means, so I tend to blow my free play money on these to hopefully hit a few so that the winnings roll into the cash side of my account. I used to use my free plays on standard plays, as I get that money is money, but this way, it gives me the dog thrill but on "their dime" so to speak, even though again, I get that I am potentially pissing away money if I have one of those days. Basically just a way to join in the fun without screwing with all my season bankroll math if that makes any sense.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Situationally CU is in a good spot.
When I try to talk myself into liking them I think about their two starting CBs who transferred out, their starting S who transferred out (to TCU of all teams). And RB Brousard. WR Rice isn't much of a loss just more of a name. Those and some graduation losses, one could say they lost all their best players and the team wasn't that good to begin with last year. So how much does one trust the coaching to get the replacements ready? Dorrell is fine at HC. They hired Mike Sanford Jr as OC...who is one of the worst coaches I can think of unfortunately, awful as HC at WKU, was OC at Utah State for Jordan Love's "bad" year and he got fired last year as Gopher's OC.
TCU looks strong on paper, just a matter of how it all gels in game 1 at altitude. Who is QB expected to be for TCU to start season?
When I try to talk myself into liking them I think about their two starting CBs who transferred out, their starting S who transferred out (to TCU of all teams). And RB Brousard. WR Rice isn't much of a loss just more of a name. Those and some graduation losses, one could say they lost all their best players and the team wasn't that good to begin with last year. So how much does one trust the coaching to get the replacements ready? Dorrell is fine at HC. They hired Mike Sanford Jr as OC...who is one of the worst coaches I can think of unfortunately, awful as HC at WKU, was OC at Utah State for Jordan Love's "bad" year and he got fired last year as Gopher's OC.
TCU looks strong on paper, just a matter of how it all gels in game 1 at altitude. Who is QB expected to be for TCU to start season?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
My best guess would be Duggan playing qb for tcu, he has the experience and has drastically improved his completion percentage every year he been there. Just a guess tho cause they also have the Oklahoma transfer chandler Morris who had a monster game when they upset baylor but got hurt, think they had a pretty highly touted freshman come in before last year also, all 3 are still there so regardless who wins the job I’d say they in pretty good shape at QB!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I hope you know what you're doing because it's my biggest play as well.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Speaking of missing calls -- who remembers that 2016 game between Okla St and C Mich? C Mich is one dog I will *not* be playing in week one.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Crazy things like that are why this sport is so fun!
Revisiting OSU's Controversial 2016 Loss to Central Michigan
One minor storyline that has been overlooked ahead of the 2022-2023 college football season is the fact Oklahoma State will host Central Michigan in the season opener in Stillwater for the first time since the controversial “loss” OSU took to the Chippewas in 2016. A sloppy game for the top-25...
www.heartlandcollegesports.com
Central had a shirt made:
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Early look at a week 2 matchup…I enjoyed the read so sharing:
opcorn:
www.espn.com
opcorn:
The story behind the wildest college football bet of the offseason
David Purdum tells the story of how two friends made the wildest college football bet of the offseason at a Russian-style bathhouse.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure If I’m crazy for considering the ducks+17 against Uga? Want to some of the new staff up there In Oregon has ties to Kirby and Uga so should be pretty familiar with the defensive scheme. Bo Nix obviously knows a thing or 2 bout Uga and is now the ducks starting qb, there some pretty favorable stats for him and what he able to do with the intermediate to deep throws that I think ducks will have a lot more of now! Of course to make those throws you need time and while one may think that a luxury not many have vs the Uga d the ducks should have a really strong oline, Cristabal certainly left that unit in good shape as if he knows anything it oline play! I know Uga just reloads but shit, how many their guys on the defensive side got drafted? 1st game with lots of new parts and facing a coaching staff who should know how to attack them, a oline that should give a experienced qb who might be little better than his perception time to throw. I guess I’m thinking bout 3 things here, ducks +17, the over 52, and im incredibly curious what kinda number they gonna hang for Nix passing yards prop!?!!! I gotta figure it gonna be rather low, like less than or just pushing 200yards maybe? (Can’t wait to see some player props numbers hit the board!!! ).
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Im thinking bout cuse+4 (might be higher by game time as ville awful trendy this year, understandably so) I like ville but think this gonna be a tough game for them, despite blowing cuse out 41-3 last year! Leading up to that game cuse had 2 really close losses to Wake and clemson then beating Vatech and BC then the wheels totally fell off here as ville jumped all over them and never looked back!
I’m not sure how cuse offense gonna look, they were pretty damn good running the ball with Tucker who a bad ass and Shrader being way more a punishing runner than passer at qb!! Cuse brings in a new OC who was at uva and we know they liked to pass all over and go fast which clearly not shrader strengths. Is he still gonna win the job? I think the OC needs to adjust and even if he wants to go fast do so counting on a punishing run game with a road grader oline, great rb, and a qb that runs in the Tebow mold! This could really wear ville down Assuming Shrader can be good enough to keep the chains moving by picking up 3rd downs!! Ville lost a bunch of games by falling apart in the 4th last year! 4 games by 6 or less is a good reason for optimism as those teams typically show big improvement the following year but I also think it points to the possibility cuse wears these guys down!!
How much I like Cunningham and ville makes this tough but if this thing continues getting bet up taking the points w cuse becomes really appealing, I don’t see why they couldn’t win but I def wont be on the ml, it will be about taking the points for me. Maybe a 2nd half ml if ville gets out to a lead but does so with big plays and cuse has ran a bunch more plays. I can’t stress enough how I think cuse can wear ville down late as long as they are able to stay in the game!!
I’m not sure how cuse offense gonna look, they were pretty damn good running the ball with Tucker who a bad ass and Shrader being way more a punishing runner than passer at qb!! Cuse brings in a new OC who was at uva and we know they liked to pass all over and go fast which clearly not shrader strengths. Is he still gonna win the job? I think the OC needs to adjust and even if he wants to go fast do so counting on a punishing run game with a road grader oline, great rb, and a qb that runs in the Tebow mold! This could really wear ville down Assuming Shrader can be good enough to keep the chains moving by picking up 3rd downs!! Ville lost a bunch of games by falling apart in the 4th last year! 4 games by 6 or less is a good reason for optimism as those teams typically show big improvement the following year but I also think it points to the possibility cuse wears these guys down!!
How much I like Cunningham and ville makes this tough but if this thing continues getting bet up taking the points w cuse becomes really appealing, I don’t see why they couldn’t win but I def wont be on the ml, it will be about taking the points for me. Maybe a 2nd half ml if ville gets out to a lead but does so with big plays and cuse has ran a bunch more plays. I can’t stress enough how I think cuse can wear ville down late as long as they are able to stay in the game!!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Alot of the things you say here are things I am thinking myself. Really interesting game. I expect Georgia's D to still be incredibly good - even with all the losses, they return their TFL leader, sack leader and PBU leader. The replacements are still going to be really good, but maybe just a notch lower that last year and that might lead to a couple more sustained drives by an opponent. Maybe.
I don't play many totals and I'm not sure I would like that over. I envision a defensive low scoring game by both teams.
X factor, the TEs for Georgia, wow. Lanning knows they have them, how will Oregon game plan for them. I think Oregon's D can hang in this game. I hate not giving Bennett his respect because damn he deserves it. I still don't view Georgia as an overly strong offensive team, but those TEs are going to be a tough matchup.
+17 is pretty appealing, or it is a sucker line to bait people like me in. Line says blowout, I think it could be competitive because of some familiarity of the staffs and defensive background could keep lids on both offenses. Or somebody could say that Georgia is a better Utah...and we know how Utah game went for Ducks last year, twice.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I’m certainly not suggesting Uga defense will be down by any stretch, they one the teams who simply reload, just think if there ever a time there might be a chance to move it on them it be early, if this game happened at end of year I wouldn’t give ducks much of a chance!
My memory sucks so correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t ducks still have a shot at the playoff before getting crushed by utes? I don’t want to dismiss that but at same time almost have to cause that what happens every year to whichever pac-12 team has a shot to get into playoffs. They blow it in spectacular fashion either in Ass kickings or heartbreak! Lol.
Of course this should be a way different ducks offense from coaches to qb. The over certainly not the thing I’m looking at most, just a thought as I often lean to overs when I feel a dog can stay close and think their offense needs to score some points to do so. I dunno if it designed to sucker us dog lovers or not? Uga routinely smashed good teams by more than this last year so think they gotta put it up there or everyone be on them! We see what the narrative sounds like leading up to the game and whether bunch of ppl making a case for ducks or just laying it with Uga!
More so than game over im incredibly curious what Nix passing yards prop will look like!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I hate the playoff and really have no idea what Oregon's potential was for that. I purposefully tune out any playoff talk.
Nix vs Georgia 2021 - 21-38-217-0-1
Nix vs Georgia 2020 - 21-40-177-0-1
Nix vs Georgia 2019 - 30-50-245-1-0
Needing to score, wanting to score and actually doing it vs a D like Georgia...I envision some drives by Oregon that have a high number of plays that could end in a FG. Or a failed 4th down in the RZ.
Lanning might know how to best go at them, and Nix has played them 3x and all, but he isn't great or anything, he could easily make mistakes that sink their ship.
But I love the Lanning vs Kirby angle from a speculative and anticipated entertainment (hopeful competitive game). Kirby and Co should have lots of wrinkles to keep him off balance too. If this was Kirby vs Mario and last year's staffs intact, it really doesn't come with the same intrigue.
Nix vs Georgia 2021 - 21-38-217-0-1
Nix vs Georgia 2020 - 21-40-177-0-1
Nix vs Georgia 2019 - 30-50-245-1-0
Needing to score, wanting to score and actually doing it vs a D like Georgia...I envision some drives by Oregon that have a high number of plays that could end in a FG. Or a failed 4th down in the RZ.
Lanning might know how to best go at them, and Nix has played them 3x and all, but he isn't great or anything, he could easily make mistakes that sink their ship.
But I love the Lanning vs Kirby angle from a speculative and anticipated entertainment (hopeful competitive game). Kirby and Co should have lots of wrinkles to keep him off balance too. If this was Kirby vs Mario and last year's staffs intact, it really doesn't come with the same intrigue.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Nix is actually surprising great at one thing. He was the #2 qb in country in the mid to deep throws between 10-19 yards only the kid at bama had a better rating on those throws. 190-205 is exactly the kinda pass yard prop number im looking for to play the over. We see where they come with it. My biggest concern isn’t nix. It more whether the ducks wrs can win 1 on 1 battles and get open? Other than that the huge concern for me is ducks defense was awful getting off the field on 3rd and 4th down, that a good way to get bludgeoned to death then get hit with some big plays as they wear down. That kinda where the over lean comes in.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Biggest challenge early in the season trying to figure out what teams will become compared to who they were previously. How new coaches can positively impact their teams and which ones go the other way. It's fun but difficult. I might think Lanning can have a positive impact on Oregon D. They're not as talented as Georgia, but they have some good players to work with.
That's an interesting stat on Nix. Where does something like that come from, who determined his success at those type of passes?
That's an interesting stat on Nix. Where does something like that come from, who determined his success at those type of passes?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I believe it his passer rating on those throws so don’t think it determined by anyone. I heard it on one podcast or another, I been listening to so many going back thru the offseason and reading so much stuff (along w watching spring games!), I honestly forget where I picked it up, might have been from the “bet the board” guys on their pac-12 preview pod as they come w some really good stuff. It surprised the shit out of me why it stuck, and believe the oc likes attacking that part of the field w the passing game so thought was a pretty interesting case to be higher on Nix than most ppl probably are, of course it will still come down to wrs winning their 1 on 1s as this scheme is predicated on getting them into those situations, I think it safe to assume nix can make the required throws tho.
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Good call on the smaller LA programs. Always a tussle
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm trying to remember, before the name changes, ULM was NE La right? I thought ULL was SE La?
Couple former Sun Belt QBs who weren't good enough to keep starting jobs at Sun Belt schools doesn't set Southeastern up ideally for immediate success. But from what I read their D should be pretty good. Yeah, should be a good in-state battle flying under the national radar.
