Week 0 & 1 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
Nice Call
@M.W. @Play2win @carolinablue @Capaholic
1st game of the year and this thread still delivers!
Keep it up fellas! Great work!
@M.W. @Play2win @carolinablue @Capaholic
1st game of the year and this thread still delivers!
Keep it up fellas! Great work!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Nmst next? I think they can. I played more on under but couldn’t resist a little ml.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
ULL was USL (Southwest Louisiana). SLU (Southeast Louisiana) is still Southeast Louisiana.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m scared to even take the points, it is tempting tho. Everyone and everything I have read, listened to, saw, has made buckeyes out to be monsters who only bama can compete with. Still think it pretty likely drop 1 game this season, why not this one that wouldn’t effect their playoff chances at all!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Sounds like a mid Sunday run to the strip crub
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Bucks will lose tp Clemson if they meet in the playoff. This line is preposterous.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
My notes show Ball State was +6510 a week ago. Amazing value.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m not sure bout that, the losing to clemson part, Until DJ shows me something I will continue to be skeptical. I don’t care how good tigers dline is, you gonna have to score to beat osu!! I think clemson running game could be fantastic but it falls back on DJ again as he gonna have to show he can make plays in the passing game or teams will just load up the box and squash that shit.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
@JROCK1966
early line has UC Davis +21.5 / 44 vs Cal
Some others of note to me...
Delaware +16 vs Navy, Nicholls +10 vs South Alabama, SE La +14.5 vs Louisiana, Mercer +31.5 vs Auburn
Would Iowa potentially be in trouble vs South Dakota State (+15.5) or Air Force possibly get tripped up vs Northern Iowa (+14)?
Those are 5dimes lines. They will adjust quite a bit as other books post them and ultimately by the time anyone posts actual ML odds on those.
early line has UC Davis +21.5 / 44 vs Cal
Some others of note to me...
Delaware +16 vs Navy, Nicholls +10 vs South Alabama, SE La +14.5 vs Louisiana, Mercer +31.5 vs Auburn
Would Iowa potentially be in trouble vs South Dakota State (+15.5) or Air Force possibly get tripped up vs Northern Iowa (+14)?
Those are 5dimes lines. They will adjust quite a bit as other books post them and ultimately by the time anyone posts actual ML odds on those.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I like Illinois
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
What are Maine, EKU, Portland St?
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Woo-Hoo!! UC-Davis baby!! LFG!!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Maine was +10, EKU +14.5 and Portland St was +17.5. Since Portland St is Thursday they have ML up on that, +625.
Again, these are 5dimes lines. In a few days when others start posting them the numbers will change a lot. Last week UNLV moved from 18.5 to 23/24. WKU moved from 21.5 to 28/30. SFA moved from 1.5 to 7/8. FSU moved from 37.5 to 43. Alabama St moved from 6 to 1/pk. Mercer opened at 24 on 5dimes and I think it closed over 30. So call it an early indicator that essentially nobody can bet yet.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
It was way more than I thought it would be. I would've guessed 10-14 range.
Did you see Brett Johnson is out again? Game changer DL that has been revered by PAC 12 followers, but he missed all of 2021 and now will miss 2022 as well.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
My ULM / Ball State parlay will be even better.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Ok ok ok…what are you seeing in Ball State?
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Nothing. It's all about the other team. Overrated (line is 14.5 points higher than year-end power ratings), and lookahead to Pitt.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Year-end Sagarin numbers were 10.5, 14, and 13.5.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I like Illinois, and I'm coming around on Temple. Is that NMSU number right?
GL Prov
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I see a couple week 0 MLs in there.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
NMSU number was from last weekend…took a shot with them vs. Wolfpack
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
As did I. That was disappointing.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
South Dakota State is ranked #2 FCS preseason. They have beat North Dakota State the last two times they played (spring and fall '21). Dual threat QB who played spring '21 but missed fall, Gronkowski is expected back at QB (call it 9 games played, hurt game 10 in FCS Title game early 1st Q - 1565 PY, 57% 15-3 ratio, 577 RY 7.0ypc 7 rush TD). They do lose 3 OL starters, but Phil Steele has 2 OL as 1st/2nd Tm FCS AA and Hero Sports has two of their OL (Greenfield and Mcormick) as two of the top 5 OL in the nation. Plus they have NFL caliber TE, in fact their top 4 receivers return for the second straight year! While they lose their #1 RB (draft to NE) they have #2 Davis back who ran for 640 in spring '21 and 701 in fall '21 as the #2 and ran for over 7.0 ypc both seasons
Two good DLs are back (Winkleman and Sanders), LB Brock is an AA. DBs are not anything great and special teams might be average-ish.
From Hero Sports:
They are playing Iowa. It has been a while, but Iowa has struggled vs some of these top level FCS teams. Iowa is just 3-6 ATS vs FCS since 2009.
Among B1G teams, Iowa was #13 in O TY last year (303.7). They only averaged 23.4 ppg on O, which puts them in about the bottom 1/3 of the B1G. It's an Iowa O...is Petras going to be better? The OL will be good because it's Iowa, but right off the bat in game 1, they will be worse than last year (lost two best OL including 1st Rd pick).
For Iowa, it's always the D and I never really question the D. It looks typical Iowa again this year.
Usually the games they win big in, it just kind of slowly happens. Like Kent St last year 30-7, was only 16-7 HT. They beat Colorado State 24-14, CSU led 7-0 and Iowa led 14-7 HT. South Dakota State beat CSU week 1 last year 42-23 and really just mauled them. Gronkowski returning at QB for SD State should make them better on O that LY. D, I don't know, maybe about the same. Anyway, back to Iowa...SD State might be one of the best teams Iowa plays all season outside of Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Sagarin has them rated 68.9 and Iowa 80.71.
Upsets happen, it's hard to get ahead of all of them. But early line has this at 15.5, certainly looks attractive at over 2 TDs. Iowa was a DD fav 5x last year, lost 1 straight up and only covered 1 (avg score 22.2-16).
Two good DLs are back (Winkleman and Sanders), LB Brock is an AA. DBs are not anything great and special teams might be average-ish.
From Hero Sports:
They are playing Iowa. It has been a while, but Iowa has struggled vs some of these top level FCS teams. Iowa is just 3-6 ATS vs FCS since 2009.
Among B1G teams, Iowa was #13 in O TY last year (303.7). They only averaged 23.4 ppg on O, which puts them in about the bottom 1/3 of the B1G. It's an Iowa O...is Petras going to be better? The OL will be good because it's Iowa, but right off the bat in game 1, they will be worse than last year (lost two best OL including 1st Rd pick).
For Iowa, it's always the D and I never really question the D. It looks typical Iowa again this year.
Usually the games they win big in, it just kind of slowly happens. Like Kent St last year 30-7, was only 16-7 HT. They beat Colorado State 24-14, CSU led 7-0 and Iowa led 14-7 HT. South Dakota State beat CSU week 1 last year 42-23 and really just mauled them. Gronkowski returning at QB for SD State should make them better on O that LY. D, I don't know, maybe about the same. Anyway, back to Iowa...SD State might be one of the best teams Iowa plays all season outside of Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Sagarin has them rated 68.9 and Iowa 80.71.
Upsets happen, it's hard to get ahead of all of them. But early line has this at 15.5, certainly looks attractive at over 2 TDs. Iowa was a DD fav 5x last year, lost 1 straight up and only covered 1 (avg score 22.2-16).
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Merrimack upset ranked Holy Cross on the road last year as +2750 ML dogs 35-21. Merrimack did have a pick-six, but game was not a fluke as Merrimack outgained them by 91y. HC was just 1-of-7 on 3rd down. Possible explanation, as odd as it might sound, was that Holy Cross was off their first win vs FBS since 2002 the week prior when they beat UConn. So they may've been feeling a little too good about themselves.
No doubt that result was not supposed to happen. Holy Cross advanced to round 2 of the playoff and Merrimack is just in year two of D2 to FCS transition. All the primary players return for this year's game except for HC's alternating QB (the better runner returns) while Merrimack has some OL loses, HC is weaker on the DL.
Phil Steele has these kinds of things to say:
Merrimack QB Elliot (year 2 starting here, gained experience at LaTech prior) "should be Merrimack's first 3,000 yard passer during their FCS era"
Merrimack RBs "get 3 of their top 4 back"
Merrimack WRs "this has the makings of the top WR unit in the conference [NEC]"
Merrimack OL "only 2 starters return making this their least experienced group on offense"
Merrimack DL "8 saw starting action last year and all 8 return" "with excellent depth they could approach the level they played in '19"
Merrimack LBs "all 3 starters are seniors so this is their most experienced unit on defense"
Merrimack DBs "this is once again their strength and is in the running for top secondary in the conference"
Merrimack ST "they can't possibly get less from their kicking game so they only have one way to go and their return men all are back"
Conclusion "...an older roster with 15 seniors and 18 starters back"
Holy Cross "they lose Siderman (more accurate passer). They are in better shape and Sluka is the best running QB in the conference"
Holy Cross RBs "this year their top 4 RBs return"
Holy Cross WRs - misprint incomplete paragraph ?
Holy Cross OL "right there with Fordham for the top OL in the conference"
Holy Cross DL "two starters return. They are less experienced but still among the brest Dlines in the Patriot"
Holy Cross LBs "get back Dobbs (3rd Tm FCS AA), #2 tackler Liam Anderson and Doran (#3 tackler). Dobbs was the Patriot's D POY"
Holy Cross DBs "Once again this is the Patriot's best secondary"
Holy Cross ST "once again this is the top ST;s unit in the Patriot"
Holy Cross will surely be out for revenge. But is Merrimack an improving team and the task of wanting revenge might not be so easy? This line opened I think about 17.5 and has been bet up to 21.5 at BetRivers with a +1100 ML on the Warriors (although 5dimes is showing 18.5).
I think I just found a new game to watch Friday night! Thinking this year's game could be lower scoring as well (last year 56 combined pts with a total of 50.5-52, this year's total currently at 47 BetRivers, but 5dimes is showing 51.5). Holy Cross had the #1 Total D FCS last year.
No doubt that result was not supposed to happen. Holy Cross advanced to round 2 of the playoff and Merrimack is just in year two of D2 to FCS transition. All the primary players return for this year's game except for HC's alternating QB (the better runner returns) while Merrimack has some OL loses, HC is weaker on the DL.
Phil Steele has these kinds of things to say:
Merrimack QB Elliot (year 2 starting here, gained experience at LaTech prior) "should be Merrimack's first 3,000 yard passer during their FCS era"
Merrimack RBs "get 3 of their top 4 back"
Merrimack WRs "this has the makings of the top WR unit in the conference [NEC]"
Merrimack OL "only 2 starters return making this their least experienced group on offense"
Merrimack DL "8 saw starting action last year and all 8 return" "with excellent depth they could approach the level they played in '19"
Merrimack LBs "all 3 starters are seniors so this is their most experienced unit on defense"
Merrimack DBs "this is once again their strength and is in the running for top secondary in the conference"
Merrimack ST "they can't possibly get less from their kicking game so they only have one way to go and their return men all are back"
Conclusion "...an older roster with 15 seniors and 18 starters back"
Holy Cross "they lose Siderman (more accurate passer). They are in better shape and Sluka is the best running QB in the conference"
Holy Cross RBs "this year their top 4 RBs return"
Holy Cross WRs - misprint incomplete paragraph ?
Holy Cross OL "right there with Fordham for the top OL in the conference"
Holy Cross DL "two starters return. They are less experienced but still among the brest Dlines in the Patriot"
Holy Cross LBs "get back Dobbs (3rd Tm FCS AA), #2 tackler Liam Anderson and Doran (#3 tackler). Dobbs was the Patriot's D POY"
Holy Cross DBs "Once again this is the Patriot's best secondary"
Holy Cross ST "once again this is the top ST;s unit in the Patriot"
Holy Cross will surely be out for revenge. But is Merrimack an improving team and the task of wanting revenge might not be so easy? This line opened I think about 17.5 and has been bet up to 21.5 at BetRivers with a +1100 ML on the Warriors (although 5dimes is showing 18.5).
I think I just found a new game to watch Friday night! Thinking this year's game could be lower scoring as well (last year 56 combined pts with a total of 50.5-52, this year's total currently at 47 BetRivers, but 5dimes is showing 51.5). Holy Cross had the #1 Total D FCS last year.
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Under. Iowa has gone under (by an average of 14 points) in each of the last 10 games before Iowa State when not favored by more than 25.
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Tough tough tough night for ML dogs. I only played one, WVU.
Close but no cigar:
WVU (+230) was right there, led often, lost on pick-six, nearly got down to the P1 on 4th down pass but incomplete
Purdue (+145) also right there, tough loss
St Francis (+595) was right there, led at HT, came back in the 4th, to tie late, but lost in OT when they threw INT in EZ.
Bryant (+300) was better team for most of 3Q, lost in OT. FIU was down to their last out on 4th down several times and managed to pull it out.
North Alabama (+150) was grossly outgained at HT, but led 7-6 (two Ind St FGs and INT set up N Bama TD). Still, this game went to OT where Indiana State won it.
Rhode Island (+104) was a short dog, or pick 'em at some, who won outright. As was New Hampshire (+105).
Samford (+360) would be the biggest upset tonight at home vs top 10 ranked Kennesaw.
Portland St is a +1250 dog that is hanging tough right now.
Close but no cigar:
WVU (+230) was right there, led often, lost on pick-six, nearly got down to the P1 on 4th down pass but incomplete
Purdue (+145) also right there, tough loss
St Francis (+595) was right there, led at HT, came back in the 4th, to tie late, but lost in OT when they threw INT in EZ.
Bryant (+300) was better team for most of 3Q, lost in OT. FIU was down to their last out on 4th down several times and managed to pull it out.
North Alabama (+150) was grossly outgained at HT, but led 7-6 (two Ind St FGs and INT set up N Bama TD). Still, this game went to OT where Indiana State won it.
Rhode Island (+104) was a short dog, or pick 'em at some, who won outright. As was New Hampshire (+105).
Samford (+360) would be the biggest upset tonight at home vs top 10 ranked Kennesaw.
Portland St is a +1250 dog that is hanging tough right now.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I didn't like any of 'em yesterday either and stayed away....I've come full circle on the Buffs at home tonight and think they won't even cover the spread so obviously not playing them. Still think Temple, ODU, and Illini have a shot though.
My book BAS sucks...am getting offered zero FCS MLs and no MLs currently offered any FBS spread over 18pts. Like I said this sucks.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
my bad got confused.....it's UTST's 2nd game and not a week 2 matchup....standing by for the shocker of the season.Early look at a week 2 matchup…I enjoyed the read so sharing:
opcorn:
The story behind the wildest college football bet of the offseason
David Purdum tells the story of how two friends made the wildest college football bet of the offseason at a Russian-style bathhouse.www.espn.com
opcorn:
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
What the hell...let's play. Wagered a bit more of my lunch money for some fun. Even though I think they won't cover, I went ahead and said fuck it and added the Buffs because anything can happen in a Friday night home game....season opener no less! Adding 2 & 3-teamer RR with:
Temple +280
Old Dominion +200
Colorado +375
Risked $18.12 ($4.53 per parlay) to Win $425.12
BOLTA!!
Temple +280
Old Dominion +200
Colorado +375
Risked $18.12 ($4.53 per parlay) to Win $425.12
BOLTA!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Odu was only one tonight i really considered (I can’t play Illinios), Think 2marro we be able to put some good pups together!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I know it crazy but I’m kinda feeling the ducks also! Quack quack!
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
No way there isn’t any drop off in play by the dawgs defense…they lost too much. They may be still as talented but someone is going to blow a coverage or two….
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
i have $10 on that Merrimack ML $10 to win 120 at DK.
I also played South Dakota St ML at Bet Rivers for $50, but they flagged it? Saying there was a max of like $38? Gave me the option to submit original $50 for "review", which I guess they allowed. LOL, testing bet limits on a $50 wager.
I also played South Dakota St ML at Bet Rivers for $50, but they flagged it? Saying there was a max of like $38? Gave me the option to submit original $50 for "review", which I guess they allowed. LOL, testing bet limits on a $50 wager.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea, especially early in year I’d think the time to get them. Ducks got a pretty damn good oline, I think ppl hard on Nix but he fits what this oc wants to do perfectly, he was one the best in country in those mid to deep throws, he passed for like 270 on Uga last year (only got 10 points but still!). Ducks d ain’t no slouches either. I love the points, I don’t think it be the craziest thing ever if they won. I’ll prob play Uga tt un35.5 also.
