M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I have to look back at my notes. I'll try to post my thoughts soon.
Week 0 & 1 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I took the bait hook line and sinker what else is new haha....Best of luck this season man!I was hoping I didn't piss you off too bad...
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Here's a list of ML dogs that I am currently looking at. I would not surprised if at least a few of these won straight up. I might play a handful of these on the ML for beer money just for the heck of it, but haven't narrowed anything down yet...
- MTSU 7.5 at James Madison
- SMiss 3.5 hosting Liberty
- Memphis 17 at Miss State
- Boise 3.5 at Oregon State
- Charlotte 7.5 at Florida Atlantic
- Hawaii 7 hosting Vandy
- Cincy 7 at Arkansas
- WVU 7 at Pitt
- UTSA 5.5 hosting Houston
Very early capping for me on these games but agree on...
SMiss...
Boise...
WVU...
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Nevada @ New Mexico St. (+10): This one looks interesting for the first weekend. Reading some excerpts from PS as Nevada just has 2 starters back on offense. They lost 4 OL, QB, and the top 7 WRs. They also only have 4 starters back on defense. PS is calling for the streak of 4 straight bowls to end this season. For NMSt, PS says the Aggie defense has 9 starters back and they have brought in some "top notch transfers." PS looks for the defense to "make big strides in 2022. This is the best defense they have had since their bowl year." Their offense has only 4 starters back but they are also learning a new O. They are likely going to try and slow the offense down, run the ball, and give the team a chance to win in the 4th Qtr. "New HC Jerry Kill was looking for hard hat lunch pail type of guys in the portal and brought in a good number of transfers. Out of all of the games on the 1st Saturday of the season, this one to me looks like the best chance of an upset happening....NM State ML is the play!
opcorn:
opcorn:
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Great time to go there and buy land...and be a realtor. Very much has crossed my mind more than a few times. The seclusion sucks though, seems like you're in another country.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
The way housing and rents are going here it might be less expensive.Just got the interior of my house repainted and all carpet replace on 2nd floor of my house to some very nice plush stuff....I'm not going anywhere anytime soon.
BOL to you and anyone else making the move to the islands!!
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Anyone have insight as to why this line keeps dropping since the end of July, as it was 12 and now I see 9.5. Very tempted to take Nevada at under double digits even with all the personnel losses, as I like to bet against the bottom 10 out of the gate. Let me know if you guys know something about this one as it's kinda weird that a game like this would see a 2.5pt line move over the last 2 weeks, thanks!Nevada @ New Mexico St. (+10): This one looks interesting for the first weekend. Reading some excerpts from PS as Nevada just has 2 starters back on offense. They lost 4 OL, QB, and the top 7 WRs. They also only have 4 starters back on defense. PS is calling for the streak of 4 straight bowls to end this season. For NMSt, PS says the Aggie defense has 9 starters back and they have brought in some "top notch transfers." PS looks for the defense to "make big strides in 2022. This is the best defense they have had since their bowl year." Their offense has only 4 starters back but they are also learning a new O. They are likely going to try and slow the offense down, run the ball, and give the team a chance to win in the 4th Qtr. "New HC Jerry Kill was looking for hard hat lunch pail type of guys in the portal and brought in a good number of transfers. Out of all of the games on the 1st Saturday of the season, this one to me looks like the best chance of an upset happening....NM State ML is the play!
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
LOL. There was a guy at the body shop I used until 15 years ago who transferred in to NMSU to play football way back when. He would have fit the bill.Nevada @ New Mexico St. (+10): This one looks interesting for the first weekend. Reading some excerpts from PS as Nevada just has 2 starters back on offense. They lost 4 OL, QB, and the top 7 WRs. They also only have 4 starters back on defense. PS is calling for the streak of 4 straight bowls to end this season. For NMSt, PS says the Aggie defense has 9 starters back and they have brought in some "top notch transfers." PS looks for the defense to "make big strides in 2022. This is the best defense they have had since their bowl year." Their offense has only 4 starters back but they are also learning a new O. They are likely going to try and slow the offense down, run the ball, and give the team a chance to win in the 4th Qtr. "New HC Jerry Kill was looking for hard hat lunch pail type of guys in the portal and brought in a good number of transfers. Out of all of the games on the 1st Saturday of the season, this one to me looks like the best chance of an upset happening....NM State ML is the play!
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
i'm liking cincy,wvu, utsa, boise ..........2 pages and i don't think i've seen colorado ? they should of had texas am beat last year at home
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
X 2! Buffs, NM St., and UC Davis (assuming their a dog) are my top 3 currently.... :shake:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Agree with JRock that New Mexico State should be a good candidate.
Nevada lost a ton, but still have some quality players that can impact, most notably at RB Taua/Lee, the big problem will be the OL blocking for them. I'd expect QB and receivers will be "ok", I doubt they will be bad, but the OL is a concern as is the transition for new players with new system in the passing game and all the potential problems that come with that.
It's really refreshing to see a guy like Dom Peterson stay when everyone else worth anything on D left. He's really good interior DL, outside of Peterson the entire D is an unknown.
New HC has DC background and I'd assume they run the O through their strongest unit on the team, which is RB.
NM State did surprisingly play SD State tough last year and were in a close game with New Mexico (NM State actually opened 3-1 ATS last year, but everything is new now).
Kill will want to run the ball as well, and as far as it goes, the NM St D should be better than their O. I would consider dog, under and potential upset.
Nevada lost a ton, but still have some quality players that can impact, most notably at RB Taua/Lee, the big problem will be the OL blocking for them. I'd expect QB and receivers will be "ok", I doubt they will be bad, but the OL is a concern as is the transition for new players with new system in the passing game and all the potential problems that come with that.
It's really refreshing to see a guy like Dom Peterson stay when everyone else worth anything on D left. He's really good interior DL, outside of Peterson the entire D is an unknown.
New HC has DC background and I'd assume they run the O through their strongest unit on the team, which is RB.
NM State did surprisingly play SD State tough last year and were in a close game with New Mexico (NM State actually opened 3-1 ATS last year, but everything is new now).
Kill will want to run the ball as well, and as far as it goes, the NM St D should be better than their O. I would consider dog, under and potential upset.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
No specific insight, but I can assume that this Nevada team will be a weak favorite and people keeping taking bits of the week 1 home dog with the new coaching staff likely being a positive for New Mex State and likely a negative for Nevada (compared to what they had with the Norvell staff).
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Not sure if he is full speed, but people have been saying that Brett Johnson is the best interior DL in the PAC12 for last couple years, both when he was playing an when he was on the sidelines. He hasn't played a game since December of 2020 due to a bad car accident. Yogi Roth of the PAC 12 network is surprisingly very high on this Cal team's potential to surprise. He loves the upside of the receivers, even saying they can be as good as the Dykes WRs...I will certainly have to wait and see on that.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
agreed. really like the under, and that 1H ML makes a ton of sense.
not in terms of ML, but is anyone else liking LT and the points at Mizzou?
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Not sure if this is old news but found this tidbit below today...Looks like Frost is a pretty huge loss given that he was the only returning offensive lineman and was also the only guy on the team to make the preseason all conference list. He was also a preseason outland trophy candidate, so huge blow given that Nevada was going to be shifting into more a run focused offense this season vs the Air Raid. Given the uncertainty with all the transfers and now these injuries, just gonna lay off this one...
The Nevada football team returned only six starters from last season. Two of them have already suffered major injuries.
Offensive lineman Aaron Frost, who was entering his fourth year as a starter, and safety JoJuan Claiborne, who had a breakout 2021 season, have both substantial severe injuries.
Same here. Any news is news to me right now
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I want to, but I'm not sure I can do it without a better QB situation ofr the dog.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Not really. These are just the games I want to cap, and new coaches will factor in at that point
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
How do you factor them into your handicapping?
There are some damn good coaches opening their first game against good teams. I've had good luck for a long time in those type situations. But I don't know if it's harder or easier for a new guy to come in the first year of the most massive change in the history football
A number of them are going to programs where the guys are getting a LOT of money--the going rate in the Big 12 is a minimum of $50,000 minimum for every player on scholarship. Some getting 7 figures. Some players literally hired from other programs to come to the new job by the new staff. And most players getting their money from outside entities--mostly alums and agents. I can't even guess how that will affect things
There are some damn good coaches opening their first game against good teams. I've had good luck for a long time in those type situations. But I don't know if it's harder or easier for a new guy to come in the first year of the most massive change in the history football
A number of them are going to programs where the guys are getting a LOT of money--the going rate in the Big 12 is a minimum of $50,000 minimum for every player on scholarship. Some getting 7 figures. Some players literally hired from other programs to come to the new job by the new staff. And most players getting their money from outside entities--mostly alums and agents. I can't even guess how that will affect things
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Louisiana Tech +20 and ML
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It's a feel thing, but I look at things like if the new coach is bringing a completely new offensive/defensive system, is he an upgrade from the last guy, etc. It's usually not enough to make me bet on a team, but it can help me get off a bet I'm on the fence on.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I’m mainly a favs player as you guys know but NW plus the points is actually on my short list as I expect an ugly grind it out type of game with the huskers maybe hitting a couple of big plays, but NW hanging in there with a chance to steal it in the 4th. Now watch it be another 56-7 blowout!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m with ya. I can’t imagine that happens again, they too well coached.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Also if “public darling “ why is sharp money against and what is reasoning on public darling? Respectfully. Just curious.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
NW is my best week 0 play fwiw
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Will be doing my season deposits this weekend when I’m back settled at home as i am back and forth right now and don’t wanna risk doing something stupid with my BTC buys and transfers by accident on my phone.
Should be posting my initial plays by Monday at the latest.
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
Love LA Tech that week actually
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So far....
New Mexico St.
Colorado
UC-Davis (assuming they're a dog)
Georgia St
Illinois (@ IU)
Old Dominion
Oregon
I love the idea of fading Nevada, they lost so much with coach bolting and taking guys with him to csu, but it so hard to feel great about backing nmst! I think they will improve and def be somewhat competitive here just not sure I can lay money on them to win, lol.
Totally agree with Illini, Shame I can’t bet them at the Illinois books, god I just remembered that. Lol. Fuck.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
There so many interesting week 1 games! I’m getting jacked!!
Cuse getting points/plus money at home against ville is interesting to me.
I want to like Purdue so much, we see.
I def think wvu could beat pitt.
Utah going to swamp is gonna be a huge public play I would think, gonna be the kind of weather teams like Utah prob not used to in the swamp! Kinda like the nfl teams who go to Miami in sept! Gators could pull that off.
Cuse getting points/plus money at home against ville is interesting to me.
I want to like Purdue so much, we see.
I def think wvu could beat pitt.
Utah going to swamp is gonna be a huge public play I would think, gonna be the kind of weather teams like Utah prob not used to in the swamp! Kinda like the nfl teams who go to Miami in sept! Gators could pull that off.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
Miss St is laying too many points, but there are a couple reasons I'm still considering them. First, as you know, Memphis upset them last year. Leach will feed off that. Both teams return a lot, but the Memphis defense will be weaker than LY. And Silverfield is 0-9 ATS on the road '20/'21. I agree it's too many points though on paper.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Line is down to 16, so hoping to see a 17 out there next week as I would probably take it at 17.5 125 or better just to get that extra half in my back pocket.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If I remember correctly that was a really goofy game, think special teams won it for memphis maybe? Leach has had some pretty good teams over the years when he gets his qb back for 3rd year in the system, I’m a little scared of them, dunno if memphis can stop them much or score a whole lot as think messy d goes a bit under the radar cause of leech and the offense usually getting the attention. Their run d was really stout and they bring back a ton, I dunno, I’m certainly not saying I’m gonna lay the points just not sure I feel great taking them either. I really don’t like being against messy at home and hearing those fucking cow bells all game anyways! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Memphis scored 31 points in that game but only had 246 yards of offense and 12 1st downs. Compared to messy st who went for 468 and 26 1st downs, safe to say result of that game was incredibly misleading no? And I really think messy gonna be better this year, not sure bout memphis really?
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I of course will be on my Heels ML
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Your boys annoyed me so bad last year it left a really bad taste in my mouth! I dunno if I’ll be against them, as I said I’d have liked to get a few more points but I def think it be tough. App st plays with a nasty attitude, I just dunno if your squad can match that?
