NBA Finals

[divol]

Till proven otherwise, I believe that GSW have better match ups and Love can be a huge problem for the Cavs, while Mozgov, one of Cavs best players in last year's Finals is out of the rotation (though Curry abused him plenty).

Golden State - Cleveland

Warriors -6, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

 

[divol]

Btw, for the series, I believe that Warriors will close it in 5 games and if Cleveland manage to steal a game in Oakland somehow, it will go to 6 games. Honestly doubt that Cleveland has what it takes to win 3 games in this series...

 

[B.A.R.]

GL D

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Nice start:shake2:

 

[tuck321]

Agree

 

[divol]

Thanks guys!

Cleveland - Golden State

Cleveland wasn't as far from GSW as the score in either of the games suggests. They lead in the second half of Game 1 and in the second quarter of Game 2.
Role players should be better for Cavs and not as good for the Dubs in Cleveland and somehow, just hard for me to see it end in a sweep.
No Love should be great news for Cleveland, since it makes Lue's job easier.
Cleveland -1, 1.95 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle
Cleveland Over 103 points - 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

 

[divol]

Both easily won )

Golden State to win, 2.04 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

 

[B.A.R.]

Great job so far this series and totally agree about the next play.

 

[divol]

Cleveland scored in playoff losses the last two seasons:
92 & 96 points in two losses to the Bulls, 100 (after OT), 82, 91 & 97 points in losses to the Warriors last year.
84 and 99 points in two losses to the Raptors and 89&77 in two losses to the Dubs this season.

Cleveland Under 104.5 points, 1.93 odds - 7 units play

 

[divol]

As for the GSW bet, it's simple in my eyes. Love should be back and that's bad news for Cleveland. But even if he was out, I expect much better game from GSW, both on defense and on offense. Curry should show up tonight, like he did in Game 4 in Portland in the second half for example. Cleveland had the perfect night and GSW had the worst night and Cleveland won, like everyone expected them to win in Game 3. Game 4 is Warriors game to lose imo...

 

[tipyerbartender1]

divol hates the Cavs. I saw Blatt got a job.

 

[dudleysdad]

What's your problem with Kevin love pal?

 

[eggman]

Is love playing for sure?

 

[divol]

2-0 tonight... Cleveland and offense in playoff lossess.....
Not sure I will bet anything in Game 5, but it should be over on Monday...

 

[emkee]

Nice call man.

 

[divol]

Thanks em...

Took Warriors Over 106.5 for 1.89 odds for 5 units, but forgot to post it.

General thoughts are that losing Green is huge and I think that Lue was 100% correct to start Love here. Expecting Splash Brothers to get 60+ points, Iggy+Barnes+Livingston should get to 40 points and it should be enough to get to the Over.

 

[divol]

Cleveland - Golden State

Don't have a lot of time to write to be honest, so will keep it short.
I don't know who has the motivation edge, but I do know that there is zero chance that both teams will keep their shooting percentage from Game 5. Golden State should shoot better and Cleveland should cool off. Green's absence in guarding LeBron was absolutely huge and I expect Kerr to find some way to cool off Kyrie after two great shooting displays.
I wrote already about Cleveland and how poorly they score in playoff losses and I expect tonight to be no different.
GSW to win, 2.18 odds - 8 units play
Cleveland Under 104.5 points, 1.94 odds - 10 units play
Under 207 points, 1.95 odds - 7 units play

 

[divol]

0 - 3

Tonight I will take a shot at it again, for max units:

GSW -5, 1.98 odds - 10 units play
Under 206 points, 2.03 odds - 10 units play
Cleveland Under 100 points, 2.05 odds - 10 units play

Wanted to write something long, but don't have the time. Basically, I think that in this game, everyone that believed in GSW before the series, should go all in for them and everyone that believed in Cleveland before the series should go all in as well. Nothing in this series so far, should make one switch sides or feel hesitant. I 100% believe that if Green would have played in Game 5, it would have ended 4 - 1 in GSW favor. I also believe, looking at Green's stats at home and on the road, that he should be great tonight. He is absolutely huge factor for the Warriors, in my opinion, more important than Curry. We all know the stats. 15 - 3 in Game 7 in favor of the home team. 33 - 0 for a team leading the series 3 - 1 and so on... I feel that GSW played the worst that they can in Games 5&6 and Cleveland the absolutely very best and still... GSW was solid in Game 5 and almost made a great comeback not once, but twice in Game 6. I just really doubt we will see Dubs play again that poorly and/or Cleveland that great. On top of that, Curry won't get fouled out tonight I believe.
Bron is the only active player that been in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on both roster (I can't count Jones as a true factor) and that says a lot and experience does matter. On the other side, he won both of his NBA titles at home, never on the road.
Iggy's condition is a huge question mark and it is important, but two days of rest didn't hurt obviously and he should be fine, at least good enough for one, last game of the season.
It's very hard to win a good team three times in a row. GSW lost Game 3 to the Cavs for that reason (not only reason obviously) and I believe that Cavs will lose tonight. TT and Jefferson probably won't be as great, Kyrie can cool off and even Bron can have a so so game tonight. Cavs gave their best for two straight games. Can they make it three games and even if so, will it be enough? I'm betting not, though I can understand those that believe in Cavs.
If I will lose, I will congratulate Cavs backers, but till then... I like GSW chances to win both ATS and SU. Something like 107 - 93 sounds about right.