NBA Finals - line guesses

[Joe Public]

I don't really want to lay -390 on the Spurs, so I'm thinking about ways to make money off this series and it's got me guessing on lines.

SA -6.5 for Game One?

Maybe 7.5?

Thoughts?

 

[brewer]

-4.5 176

 

[Joe Public]

-4.5 176

That would be a managble ML, I'd consider laying that.

 

[brewer]

i could be way off. BeLIEve is a lot better at this sort of thing.

 

[Joe Public]

I'm decent in other sports, and believe I could be in basketball, I just don't watch it.

I can't possibly see anything near a 3.5, though.

 

[brewer]

spot on joe.

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>NBA Basketball - Thu 6/7</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Spread</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Points</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Thu 6/7</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>701</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +7.5 -107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2>Props
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 06:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>702</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Antonio Spurs <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -7.5 -103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[brewer]

i see the cavs > jazz so this looks off imo.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Because the Cavs get 3 games in the middle of the series, I'll guess Spurs win 4-2

 

[Joe Public]

Hey, hey.

See, told ya I could do it. Did get a little lucky, though.

It feels a little inflated. Just a touch at 7.5, but I understand why.

Are the Cavs better than the Jazz? I think they're about equal, LeBron can score more than Boozer, but Boozer's more of a terror on the glass and the Jazz are like the best home team in the league this year. So I think it equals out.

I don't really see a way the Cavs can win more than two games in this series, however.

It feels very much to me like the Sixers/Lakers series from five or whatever years ago. LeBron will go off and get one win, maybe two, all by himself, but the matchup for Cleveland seems really bad long term.

 

[Joe Public]

Because the Cavs get 3 games in the middle of the series, I'll guess Spurs win 4-2

Oh, good grief, are they still doing that ridiculous format?

Good God the NBA is bush league.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

yeah, Joe, if the Cavs get a split in San An to begin the series, its all on, lol.

Cavs have gone 7-0 ATS their last 7 games. I'm guessing the Spurs win at least 1 of the first 2 by DD.

 

[brewer]

2-3-2 is the format.

i dont know how to approach this series i have 25 to 1 on cavs. i havent seen one reason to doubt them yet so until i do i think im gonna let it ride.

what i really want is the cavs to steal game 1 off all this mojo they must have right now.

cleveland is an excellent defensive team. lebron james vs bowen is gonna be a joke.

i like cavs frontline a lot. thats already been said. i think the cavs have a better chance then most think. they are peaking at the right time and are finally running and gunning.

me likes running and gunning ... gibson, jones, lebron, marshall, sideshow bob.


gonna be fun. i need to find a way to cash the most of my money.

 

[Joe Public]

If the Cavs could win one of the first two I might have to tie both of my hands behind my back to keep me from unloading on the Spurs' series price.

Even then I'd probably be trying to bet it with my feet.

However, the good thing about this laughable format the NBA uses is that it puts SA on the road for three straight and therefore, maybe even at plus-money in some of those games.

So really what might be better for me is waiting for those MLs and betting them harder rather than trying to pick up little bits of money on each game.

 

[Joe Public]

F**king Spurs are already up to -510 at Matchbook.

 

[brewer]

-510 looks at least 100 too high.

 

[Joe Public]

-510 looks at least 100 too high.

I agree, but it was bet up to that pretty quickly. When I first posted this, it was -390, which I think is about right, but I didn't want to lay it.

Since then, in the past 45 minutes, it's been bet back down to -420.

 

[JPicks]

-425 at Pinny

 

[ghostnmyhead]

spurs take it in game 7..