Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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May 16 Mon 2022

06:40 PM
901Washington NationalsA. Sanchez -R+184O 7
-115
902Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R-200U 7
-105
06:40 PM
913Detroit TigersA. Faedo -R+173O 7½
-110
914Tampa Bay RaysC. Kluber -R-188U 7½
-110
07:05 PM
915New York YankeesL. Severino -R-210O 8½
-105
916Baltimore OriolesK. Bradish -R+192U 8½
-115
07:07 PM
917Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R+142O 8½
-110
918Toronto Blue JaysY. Kikuchi -L-154U 8½
-110
07:10 PM
919Houston AstrosJ. Odorizzi -R+100O 8½
-125
920Boston Red SoxG. Whitlock -R-110U 8½
+105
07:40 PM
907Atlanta BravesI. Anderson -R+115O 8
+100
908Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R-125U 8
-120
08:05 PM
921Los Angeles AngelsN. Syndergaard -R-136O 8
-110
922Texas RangersJ. Gray -R+126U 8
-110
08:40 PM
909San Francisco GiantsA. Wood -L-144O 11
-125
910Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+133U 11
+105
09:40 PM
925Minnesota TwinsC. Archer -R-127O 7½
-105
926Oakland AthleticsZ. Logue -L+117U 7½
-115
10:10 PM
911Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+200O 8½
-115
912Los Angeles DodgersT. Gonsolin -R-220U 8½
-105
 
Looking at Yankees/Orioles, the Yankees swept the Birds at home, but lost 2 of three at Baltimore. Two ways of thinking about it, one is that there is value with the Birds here, especially at the 2 to 1 prices you're going to get for each game. Another is what I think of as a series chase, knowing that it's much more likely that the Yankees sweep the O's than the other way around, you could bet NYY to win the first game, and then see where you stand series wise.
 
Peralta is the best bet.
Peralta, Bradish, Whitlock.
---
I might dabble with Faedo. I think he's MLB ready and Kluber's a wild card.
2 of the worst SP's of the day are playing each other. Archer/Logue. Make of it what you will.
 
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Day after cards offense explodes has typically been a dud in previous years, hasn’t been so much this season. Had Megil been pitching I’d say they for sure struggle tonight. Not as sure now but not like they above looking bad vs a below average rhp. 1st thing I’ll be looking for is Mikolas outs but there a pretty good chance they come with a 18.5 or something. Any out total where 6 innings cashes would be a autobet but I don’t expect to get that., Mets still havnt lost 2 games in a row all season but that won’t last forever, they just had their 1st series loss on the season over the weekend against seattle. Could be time for a little slide? Tough to continue pitching so well when you have multiple starters injured!! My initial thought is Mikolas as a dog to Trevor Williams is probably worth a play.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
Peralta is the best bet.
Peralta, Bradish, Whitlock.
---
I might dabble with Faedo. I think he's MLB ready and Kluber's a wild card.
2 of the worst SP's of the day are playing each other. Archer/Logue. Make of it what you will.
Click to expand...

They don’t have a number for peralta yet but I’ll def be interested in his k prop if it not too high. Braves whiffing 28% the time vs righties!
 
freddy P on his best days rest also, he been microscopic the last few years on 5 days rest.. hoping for a 6.5 on him, a 5.5 be lovely but dont foresee him getting that generic number,. i think he good for 7-8 k's for sure, maybe more!! i really dont understand why they have a bunch of strikeout props up already but nothing for this game, so annoying!!
 
i dont see any numbers that require going and jumping on right away so im just gonna try to put all mine together and wait for hopefully all them to drop at some kind of reasonable time.. the one im eyeing that might make sense to grab early would be whitlock ov 4.5k's at ev money. stros dont have a crazy high strike out percentage vs rhp, id guess they right bout avg at 24-25% and they hit so not exactly a team i look to attack but whitlock been been a punch out machine fanning over 45% of his outs and with a swing and miss over 15%! Crazy his k's per 9 has actually went up considerably moving from pen to starter, his change up been lethal which should allow him to handle lefties as well as right handed hitters. the problem here is a lot more of houston swing and miss comes from the bottom half the order and with whitlock not being a guy who can go deep into games there a chance he doesnt even see the bottom half 2x, if we could be sure he see the entire lineup 2x i think getting to 5 k's would be a slam dunk but not sure we can count on that? since i dont exactly love it ill just wait and see where number goes.
 
Arizona +.5 +125 1st 5 Innings. +202 For The Game...
Two Good Pitchers Going Today In L.A. True.
Games With Bum Pitching Have All Been Underdog Odds For The Game. Team Has Gone 4-3 When He Starts
+123 +171 +154 +117
1st 5 Innings He Has Given Up...
1 0 0 1 2 Earned Runs.
 
if you just look at the numbers it really tough to back Antonio Senzatela but the dude just wins at coors. other than that it all kinds of ugly, thing is coors a totally different world than any other park so i think the w/l record there is more significant than anywhere else. he has earned a decision in 38 of his 53 starts at home and has won 68% of them! getting +133 on a guy who wins at that clip never a bad play! then factor in rox generally hit lefties, hit at home, and are getting a 2nd crack at wood who has historically struggled at coors i think it a pretty strong play..
 
Vap'sBack said:
Arizona +.5 +125 1st 5 Innings. +202 For The Game...
Two Good Pitchers Going Today In L.A. True.
Games With Bum Pitching Have All Been Underdog Odds For The Game. Team Has Gone 4-3 When He Starts
+123 +171 +154 +117
Click to expand...

im def interested in backing madbum in some fashion or another. just havnt decided how im gonna go about it yet as havnt really gotten to that game.
 
In three starts this year on four days of rest, Alcantara is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA.
Alcantara is 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA in nine career starts against Washington.

Weather won't be a factor at Tropicana Field, but the Tigers will have to deal with one of the best pitchers of the current era. That's Corey Kluber. Although he's 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA this season.

Detroit is scheduled to start rookie right-hander Alex Faedo (1-0 with a 3.60 ERA). He has never pitched against the Rays, but he's no stranger to the Tampa Bay area. Faedo grew up in Tampa and had a stellar high school career at Alonso High School.

*I like DET here. Possibly WASH as well.
"Best Pitchers In Current ERA?!"
Well Corwy Hasn't Started The Season Like It...
 
madbum bad numbers are somewhat deceiving, early in the season he was walking a bunch of guys (10 walks in 13 innings compared to only 9 k's), it been established i pretty much have given every starter a pass for their 1st few starts this year as they were essentially still in spring training, i think a old rusty fuck like madbum it probably takes even longer to get revved up at this advanced age!! his last 17.1 innings he has only walked 2 guys compared to 11 k's (the strikeout numbers will probably never be impressive at this stage but they not the be all end all for me).LAD used to be almost a auto fade for me against lhp's, im not sure that the case any longer as they now have a pretty good balance of production from both sides, they are still more vulnerable to lefties just not sure it to the same extent as in the past. We did just see Ranger Suarez pitch a great game against them but while he may not be the pitcher madbum is his stuff is unquestionably better. they hung a crazy low out total for Suarez in that game so im very interested to see where they put it for Madison, given the fact he has only pitched past 5 innings once this year id think it have to be pretty low (if these pussies even give us a number!), im def gonna wait awhile and see cause you gotta think 15.5 would be about as high they could possibly make it. He has went from 78 pitches to 89 then up to 96 his last start where he went 6.1 vs fish (he did have the one start cut short after getting booted from the game in between but not much we can take from that), so i think it a safe bet they will now be fine with him throwing around 100 pitches if he effective. im pretty confident he will be able to go at least 5+ innings tonight and as mentioned i just dont see how they come with a out total much higher than 15.5 given his output thus far on the season. Not sure we will get these kind of chances later on as that shortened spring really gave us a edge now that pitchers fully stretched. just have to wait and see if they have the guts to post a out total, up to this point they have yet to even post a run total for him even tho they have one for gonsolin! at the moment just strikeouts and walks, the under 1.5 walks at plus money kinda intrigues me but i worry he might walk a few just attempting to navigate this lineup as a good veteran will do from time to time.
 
Vap'sBack said:
In three starts this year on four days of rest, Alcantara is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA.
Alcantara is 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA in nine career starts against Washington.

Weather won't be a factor at Tropicana Field, but the Tigers will have to deal with one of the best pitchers of the current era. That's Corey Kluber. Although he's 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA this season.

Detroit is scheduled to start rookie right-hander Alex Faedo (1-0 with a 3.60 ERA). He has never pitched against the Rays, but he's no stranger to the Tampa Bay area. Faedo grew up in Tampa and had a stellar high school career at Alonso High School.

*I like DET here. Possibly WASH as well.
"Best Pitchers In Current ERA?!"
Well Corwy Hasn't Started The Season Like It...
Click to expand...

everyone knows i love Alcontera (still pains me every time to think he should be a cardinal!), kinda surprised his numbers so bad vs nats, if you look closer that inflated era came from some time ago, going back to 2020 is last 4 starts vs them he has been lights out in 3 of them going at least 6 innings and not allowing more than 1 run. he did have one bad start last season where he only went 5 innings and gave up 5 runs but he followed that with a 8 inning gem later in the season where he only allowed 1 hit and no walks!! He faced them once already this year and went 6 innings only allowing 1 run, he did have to work out of some trouble tho as he allowed 6 hits and walked 3. all that said a lot of my love for him is that fact we typically get way more favorable prices on a guy of his caliber thanks to pitching for the fish! that not the case here as he being priced like a ace in this one, i have no interest playing the fish laying -180ish. they set his out totally really high at 18.5 so no interest there either. problem with backing the nats is i do expect Sandy most likely goes 6 innings and holds them to 2 runs and he up against sanchez who i dont like a real lot, i will say his numbers are probably a bit inflated having to face sf in b2b starts and a start at coors. He is getting hit pretty hard tho and it gotta be concerning 75% his pitches are either sinkers or 4 seam fastballs, that a ton for a guy with elite velo which he clearly doesnt have, hard to imagine fish cant score 3-4 runs off him.

dare i say tigers are hot after sweeping the O's? i expected them to be way more competitive than they been this year, maybe they reel off some wins! good price to find out,, dont know anything bout the kid pitching for them tho.
 
kid starting for tigers does have some big time swing and miss stuff it appears! his k numbers throughout the minors been really good and even tho they havnt been great thru his 1st 2 starts his swing and miss is up in the area you would expect the k's to come. tampa whiffs a bunch vs rhp so might be some value in his k prop over 4.5.. tigers are def playable getting that much plus money, getting the +1.5 at -120 makes some sense as well.
 
Yusei Kikuchi is such a tough cap here,, i say a lot with him the more you see this guy the easier it will be to deal with him, obviously seattle hasnt faced him but they have watched him the last 2 years, im not sure if that the same or not? fucker throws a lot of pitches off the plate so if you patient you can draw a lot of walks. seattle does take a lot of walks against lhp but they dont exactly hit them either with a .215 avg against lhp. im having a hell of a time making a line for this guy, lol.
 
KJ said:
Not a bad time to get the weather thread fired up again, not sure which site people used for field directions and wind. Looks like it's going to be pretty gusty in Denver this evening
Click to expand...

i think the one most of us used is the one that gone now :( my score app says wind speed and what direction it blowing in relation to stadium but not nearly as entailed as the other site was.
 
2daBank said:
Yusei Kikuchi is such a tough cap here,, i say a lot with him the more you see this guy the easier it will be to deal with him, obviously seattle hasnt faced him but they have watched him the last 2 years, im not sure if that the same or not? fucker throws a lot of pitches off the plate so if you patient you can draw a lot of walks. seattle does take a lot of walks against lhp but they dont exactly hit them either with a .215 avg against lhp. im having a hell of a time making a line for this guy, lol.
Click to expand...

normally i would just say fuck it and move on but his out total of 15.5 at plus money is so freaking intriguing for a guy who has just went b2b starts against the yanks and exceeded that in both of them!! lol. dont think i can play it tho, his pitch count is rarely the issue but when he starts putting guys on with his walks they quick to yank him.
 
2daBank said:
Day after cards offense explodes has typically been a dud in previous years, hasn’t been so much this season. Had Megil been pitching I’d say they for sure struggle tonight. Not as sure now but not like they above looking bad vs a below average rhp. 1st thing I’ll be looking for is Mikolas outs but there a pretty good chance they come with a 18.5 or something. Any out total where 6 innings cashes would be a autobet but I don’t expect to get that., Mets still havnt lost 2 games in a row all season but that won’t last forever, they just had their 1st series loss on the season over the weekend against seattle. Could be time for a little slide? Tough to continue pitching so well when you have multiple starters injured!! My initial thought is Mikolas as a dog to Trevor Williams is probably worth a play.
Click to expand...
That was a suprise when I looked. My #'s say Wiliiams has been better overall, not by a lot.
 
2daBank said:
dare i say tigers are hot after sweeping the O's? i expected them to be way more competitive than they been this year, maybe they reel off some wins! good price to find out,, dont know anything bout the kid pitching for them tho.
Click to expand...
Kid grew up in Tampa. Friends and Family will be there. I like these spots!
 
Looks like for the most part the rain should be out of area by Scheduled 1st pitches or shortly after for those east coast games.
 
Detroit is scheduled to start rookie right-hander Alex Faedo (1-0 with a 3.60 ERA). He has never pitched against the Rays, but he's no stranger to the Tampa Bay area. Faedo grew up in Tampa and had a stellar high school career at Alonso High School.
 
Vap'sBack said:
Kid grew up in Tampa. Friends and Family will be there. I like these spots!
Click to expand...
Kluber is just so hard to go against, last spot was the 12-0 no-no against the Angels, hard to fathom him not bouncing back from that. Could be an ideal under.
 
KJ said:
Kluber is just so hard to go against, last spot was the 12-0 no-no against the Angels, hard to fathom him not bouncing back from that. Could be an ideal under.
Click to expand...

Feels like a good game to parlay the +1.5 and under.
 
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Vap'sBack said:
Detroit is scheduled to start rookie right-hander Alex Faedo (1-0 with a 3.60 ERA). He has never pitched against the Rays, but he's no stranger to the Tampa Bay area. Faedo grew up in Tampa and had a stellar high school career at Alonso High School.
Click to expand...

Im gonna play his over 4.5 k’s -130 and do the tigers rl/u7.5 parlay +236.
 
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KJ said:
Do they let you parlay with 1st 5 under?
Click to expand...

I’m not 100% but guessing not; I’m almost positive I tried last year and wouldn’t let me. Im sure if I could I would do that more often than full game cause I def prefer Ff unders to fg.
 
Still not a lot of out totals up. I’m gonna try to hold out till 1st pitch of the early games but we see, so annoying. How freaking hard is it?
 
Thor shouldn’t have much problem going 6 innings vs texas lineup in that park but who the fuck wants to pay -175? Not me.
 
KJ said:
Cards/NYM already postponed, guessing NYY/O's won't be far behind. Boston could be up in the air I guess.
Click to expand...

So much for this stupid weather app I have. For Ny it doesn’t even show chance of rain rest the night! Lol
 
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Reactions: KJ
2daBank said:
Better than Megil? Really? Guess I should look closer. Either way he a righty so regardless he capable of being tough for cards, lol.
Click to expand...
My bad, i didn’t specify. Williams has been better than Mikolas.

Actually, Williams is barely better than Megill. Negligible.
 
Boston shouldn't be getting any rain tonight. If so I'm screwed cause I left my sunroof open and I'm way too lazy to go outside

I better put on local news at 5 just to be safe

EDIT - OH DAMN y'all right, it starts raining at 8. Time to get my ass off the couch and go run outside quick
 
2daBank said:
Who knows. He prob won’t get a whole lot of run support tho.
Click to expand...
You don't like the White Sox bats vs Keller? I was leaning first5 over based on Cueto historically getting touched early before finding his groove. I've watched him his whole career...one of my favorite Reds.
 
Marsski said:
You don't like the White Sox bats vs Keller? I was leaning first5 over based on Cueto historically getting touched early before finding his groove. I've watched him his whole career...one of my favorite Reds.
Click to expand...

I don’t particularly like chisox bats vs any righty with a pulse at the moment, I was really hoping to get a out total for Keller but doesn’t look like it gonna happen.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
My bad, i didn’t specify. Williams has been better than Mikolas.

Actually, Williams is barely better than Megill. Negligible.
Click to expand...

I think you judging Mikolas way too harshly. He has been fantastic this year. His metrics never gonna jump off they page but he a walking quality start. You can pretty much chalk him up for 6+ innings and less than 3 runs practically every time out.
 
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