Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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The weekend is here!

Come cap Fridays MLB card at CTG. Plenty of winners on the horizon.

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Rodon hasn't been going deep before getting into the 90-100 PC but he's been striking out a bunch in those innings. 11 starts since June and only failed to get to 7 k's three times. Gets a Rangers team that hasn't faced him since 2021 so not sure who's joined the team since has done against him but certainly going to be one prop I'm going to keep an eye on.
 
Others at first glance Cubs tt o4.5 +105, Pit/LAD f5 u4.5 (need to price this one out and about), SD ML in a parlay after more lines come out
 
Lorenzen 2nd start for Royals. He is pretty consistant. Pitched well enough first start. Mikolas been fading last 4, like many starters in the league, big win for Royals last vs Sox not to get swept, not hard to lean KC
 
KJ said:
Rodon hasn't been going deep before getting into the 90-100 PC but he's been striking out a bunch in those innings. 11 starts since June and only failed to get to 7 k's three times. Gets a Rangers team that hasn't faced him since 2021 so not sure who's joined the team since has done against him but certainly going to be one prop I'm going to keep an eye on.
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tbink i saw this game been cancelled already?
 
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peelpub94 said:
BAL/TB o7.5 -115
TEX/NYY o9 -105
SD/MIA o8 -118
OAK/TOR o8.5 -115
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i like the rays ff tt ov 1.5, gotta think they have a very good book on how to hit efflin. not that i don't think balty will score also i just love those ff tt's ov 1.5!

skeptical of scoring in miami, im huge edward cabrera fan tho, he has looked much better lately. hard to trust fish to score much against anyone. that said i assume both starters prob give up a few and then pads more than capable of getting the rest off fish pen even if Cabrera is good, doubt he goes much deeper than 5 innings. his ov 4.5 k's is super tempting even against a high contact rate pads lineup. imo his stuff is good enough to get 5 k's vs any lineup when he on.

had the same initial lean in the a's/jays game but i havnt looked much into it, over was just 1st thing i wrote down when skimming over card.
 
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2daBank said:
i like the rays ff tt ov 1.5, gotta think they have a very good book on how to hit efflin. not that i don't think balty will score also i just love those ff tt's ov 1.5!

skeptical of scoring in miami, im huge edward cabrera fan tho, he has looked much better lately. hard to trust fish to score much against anyone. that said i assume both starters prob give up a few and then pads more than capable of getting the rest off fish pen even if Cabrera is good, doubt he goes much deeper than 5 innings. his ov 4.5 k's is super tempting even against a high contact rate pads lineup. imo his stuff is good enough to get 5 k's vs any lineup when he on.

had the same initial lean in the a's/jays game but i havnt looked much into it, over was just 1st thing i wrote down when skimming over card.
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This was the first thing I thought of when I saw this match up. I mean you can say that for just about any opposing former team.. but the Rays are a different breed IMO.

For whatever reason, 9 out of L10 Cabrera starts have gone over:
1723224946687.png

And in general, L10 in Miami have been high scoring games, and in comes a hot SD offense. I think it continues.

1723225002951.png

I realize these are small samples still.. but the current over run last 30 is hitting 58%, this week is much higher, closer to 70. Pitchers are wearing down as cited by jumper, teams have more data on them, humidity/heat, and the ball could be the last factor. These items I think contribute to .5-1 run higher that what Vegas is putting out there currently. They'll catch up next week probably.
 
peelpub94 said:
This was the first thing I thought of when I saw this match up. I mean you can say that for just about any opposing former team.. but the Rays are a different breed IMO.

For whatever reason, 9 out of L10 Cabrera starts have gone over:
View attachment 86824

And in general, L10 in Miami have been high scoring games, and in comes a hot SD offense. I think it continues.

View attachment 86825

I realize these are small samples still.. but the current over run last 30 is hitting 58%, this week is much higher, closer to 70. Pitchers are wearing down as cited by jumper, teams have more data on them, humidity/heat, and the ball could be the last factor. These items I think contribute to .5-1 run higher that what Vegas is putting out there currently. They'll catch up next week probably.
Click to expand...

def seems like been lot more high scores everywhere but seattle! god their offense sucks! i def don't expect Cabrera to shut pads out or go much longer than 5, i wouldn't play the under just don't like overs in miami very much. think im still gonna play Cabrera k's, tough to pass up ov 4.5 -105 for kid w his stuff. more concerning to me than pads contact rate is just them being patient and running his pitch count up if he not locating. regardless how he pitches i assume pads will score off fish pen after he leaves, seems like their offense been pretty great late in games during this hot streak!

on seattle note think it really tough not to play muts at least ff, id think quintana can do what most pitchers do and keep seattle offense in check for 5 innings at least. need to look at mets lineup vs heat/sinkers cause i wanna say miller throws a very high percentage of them. expect mets can get a few off him which is usually enough to beat seattle ff! i do kinda like arozarena h,r,rbi ov 1.5 -140, he has continued to hit lhp all year. lindor h,r,rbi ov 1.5 is much cheaper than i would have thought, have to look closer at him vs miller pitch mix.
 
wheeler ov 5.5 k's -145, i'll play wheeler to fan 6+ with reasonable juice all day every day and twice on sundays! he has been good when pitching in zona which i always track as im sure ya'll have heard me talk bout plenty of times how years ago cards had gooewd pitchers who c usually complain boudt their grip in the dry air but hasn't seemed to be a issue for wheeler. i'm totally good with the snakes ff tt un 1.5 +114, another bet i'll happily make on wheeler practically anytime i can get plus money to hold a team under 2 thru 5! he has held teams to less than 2 runs scored in 13 his 22 starts and several of those games he allowed 2 he didn't give up the 2nd/3rd run till after 5th. both these bets are basically auto plays when they willing to give us these lines/prices!
 
2daBank said:
def seems like been lot more high scores everywhere but seattle! god their offense sucks! i def don't expect Cabrera to shut pads out or go much longer than 5, i wouldn't play the under just don't like overs in miami very much. think im still gonna play Cabrera k's, tough to pass up ov 4.5 -105 for kid w his stuff. more concerning to me than pads contact rate is just them being patient and running his pitch count up if he not locating. regardless how he pitches i assume pads will score off fish pen after he leaves, seems like their offense been pretty great late in games during this hot streak!

on seattle note think it really tough not to play muts at least ff, id think quintana can do what most pitchers do and keep seattle offense in check for 5 innings at least. need to look at mets lineup vs heat/sinkers cause i wanna say miller throws a very high percentage of them. expect mets can get a few off him which is usually enough to beat seattle ff! i do kinda like arozarena h,r,rbi ov 1.5 -140, he has continued to hit lhp all year. lindor h,r,rbi ov 1.5 is much cheaper than i would have thought, have to look closer at him vs miller pitch mix.
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Just dug into NYM/SEA - Mets line up hits well against Miller's trio of 4 seam, split, sinker. Mets seem underpriced here at +108.

Thought F5 under 4.5 -114 could be worth a look but I'm still hesitant on any under period at this point.
 
2daBank said:
wheeler ov 5.5 k's -145, i'll play wheeler to fan 6+ with reasonable juice all day every day and twice on sundays! he has been good when pitching in zona which i always track as im sure ya'll have heard me talk bout plenty of times how years ago cards had gooewd pitchers who c usually complain boudt their grip in the dry air but hasn't seemed to be a issue for wheeler. i'm totally good with the snakes ff tt un 1.5 +114, another bet i'll happily make on wheeler practically anytime i can get plus money to hold a team under 2 thru 5! he has held teams to less than 2 runs scored in 13 his 22 starts and several of those games he allowed 2 he didn't give up the 2nd/3rd run till after 5th. both these bets are basically auto plays when they willing to give us these lines/prices!
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Just a quick heads up, AZ as a team line up has gone under 6k's 13 out of last 14.
 
good god. flaherty ov 6.5 k's would be a play for me but not at -175, thst crazy high juice but i do expect he shows out coming home and pitching for his childhood team! pirates another ff tt un 1.5 that i think caches. lot of potential overs which seems like a good time for with all the overs hitting recently!

another pitcher k prop worth looking at. robbie ray ov 6.5, tigers not exactly protecting plate! ray could easily fan 7+ here.
 
as a team phillies punched out 11 i think in game 1, the last game of cle series fucking Carrasco punched out 5, yea im
pretty confident wheeler can get 6+, matter a fact i think he was the last guy to punch out 6+ and think he fanned 9 snakes in philly?
 
2daBank said:
as a team phillies punched out 11 i think in game 1, the last game of cle series fucking Carrasco punched out 5, yea im
pretty confident wheeler can get 6+, matter a fact i think he was the last guy to punch out 6+ and think he fanned 9 snakes in philly?
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well 8 and that was in june but point remains the same. not worried at all bout snakes being a high contact team when facing a guy like wheeler, anytime he 6.5 or less ya gotta look at playing him imo.
 
peelpub94 said:
Just dug into NYM/SEA - Mets line up hits well against Miller's trio of 4 seam, split, sinker. Mets seem underpriced here at +108.

Thought F5 under 4.5 -114 could be worth a look but I'm still hesitant on any under period at this point.
Click to expand...

think the seattle home games still been going under for most part it i like mets ff way more w the plus money. off top my head i thought mets hit his pitches, never had time to look just went off memory and played them, lol. thanks.
 
6 k's for Wheeler through 3 gets it done

And great new is the good guys have been able to get a couple off him as well
 
ray, wheeler, and flaherty all hit their k's pretty easy. odd game for cabrera but i'll take 3-1 on the k props.
 
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2daBank said:
ray, wheeler, and flaherty all hit their k's pretty easy. odd game for cabrera but i'll take 3-1 on the k props.
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Didn't realize Ryne has hit 9 k's in 3 of his last 5 starts, nice to get the win on the k's and the kid that got called up for Moreno got the walk off bomb
 
KJ said:
Didn't realize Ryne has hit 9 k's in 3 of his last 5 starts, nice to get the win on the k's and the kid that got called up for Moreno got the walk off bomb
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doesn't seem losing moreno has really hurt them, they just continue playing good ball.
 
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