Divisional Round: Ravens vs. Bills Discussion Thread

I was sure hoping to get +3.5 or 4 with ravens. Books continue to give them ton of respect. I think that was the case with them laying that number in Tennessee today as well. Not titans disrespect but books respecting the fact ravens were considered one of if not the best team not very long ago (like last year at this time!).

As much I been loving riding the bills mafia bandwagon i don’t think anyone wants to get in ravens way right now. Defense played great today, the pressure off Lamar now who got the mojo working after a skittish start today, ravens just dangerous. So despite saying I liked bills to represent afc in SB a week ago im now thinking I like ravens. Just initial thoughts tho. Sure woulda liked +4!!
 
As impressive as Allen has been, the Bills looked green on Saturday vs a game Colts squad with a run game and solid D. I hope the Bills win the SB, but hope is just a wish. BAL is Indy on roids so I’ll probably grab the points or tease. Should be fun game and one I’m most interested in.
 
detroit187 said:
As impressive as Allen has been, the Bills looked green on Saturday vs a game Colts squad with a run game and solid D. I hope the Bills win the SB, but hope is just a wish. BAL is Indy on roids so I’ll probably grab the points or tease. Should be fun game and one I’m most interested in.
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ravens +8.5/kc-2 feels like one the best teasers of the year!!
 
As fun it is to watch Allen I do think ravens pass d without having to be overly concerned with a run game is gonna be really really challenging for Allen.
 
2daBank said:
I was sure hoping to get +3.5 or 4 with ravens. Books continue to give them ton of respect. I think that was the case with them laying that number in Tennessee today as well. Not titans disrespect but books respecting the fact ravens were considered one of if not the best team not very long ago (like last year at this time!).

As much I been loving riding the bills mafia bandwagon i don’t think anyone wants to get in ravens way right now. Defense played great today, the pressure off Lamar now who got the mojo working after a skittish start today, ravens just dangerous. So despite saying I liked bills to represent afc in SB a week ago im now thinking I like ravens. Just initial thoughts tho. Sure woulda liked +4!!
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Buy the points if you are confident in it.
 
Chalk Bills 4 me. The Ravens and Lamar scored 20 points against one of the worst defensive teams, 20 points won with a total that was 55 points.

Lamar again was the leading rusher and it wasnt close!. Complete one dimensional team that can be had. The Bills can lay points down being one of the best offenses and if they can with lots of fire power can put a lot of pressure on this Ravens offense. The Ravens offense that lost last year as huge chalk and up against it again. -2.5 or 3 is a nice line on what a lot of people think is a capable dog. Not me still like the Bills here.
 
spottie2935 said:
Chalk Bills 4 me. The Ravens and Lamar scored 20 points against one of the worst defensive teams, 20 points won with a total that was 55 points.

Lamar again was the leading rusher and it wasnt close!. Complete one dimensional team that can be had. The Bills can lay points down being one of the best offenses and if they can with lots of fire power can put a lot of pressure on this Ravens offense. The Ravens offense that lost last year as huge chalk and up against it again. -2.5 or 3 is a nice line on what a lot of people think is a capable dog. Not me still like the Bills here.
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im big fan of bills but they got handled in the trenches vs colts. Pretty sure every colts possession got into bills territory, I just dunno if Allen can beat ravens playing Superman ball and carrying them? If Balty wins at Los it gonna be really tough for him. I’m not sure what titans defense able to do to ravens means much since they seem to be one the few teams who has a really good handle on how to defend that run game, I don’t think bills will take the called runs away as effectively.
 
2daBank said:
im big fan of bills but they got handled in the trenches vs colts. Pretty sure every colts possession got into bills territory, I just dunno if Allen can beat ravens playing Superman ball and carrying them? If Balty wins at Los it gonna be really tough for him. I’m not sure what titans defense able to do to ravens means much since they seem to be one the few teams who has a really good handle on how to defend that run game, I don’t think bills will take the called runs away as effectively.
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certainly both of these teams are full of questions. Bills played a good D last week and scored 27. Balty played a bad D last week and scored 20. I am not sure if the Bills can duplicate shutting down Balty but as it look last week it was a one man show with Lamar. Lamar is excellent but Buffalo at home is what I prefer.
 
Moss loss is a tough one.... he's good in pass protection which could come into play here... Antonio Williams could be a nice story after ripping the Fins, but his pass protection abilities remain to be seen. All in all the Buffalo run game isn't going to decide whether not not the Bills win.


A couple takeaways from the Colts game- The Bills didn't cover, but let's all stop with the Bills d is terrible narrative. They held Taylor to 3.7 ypc. T.Y had 2 catches. The Colts came with a great gameplan and nearly executed it perfectly. Rivers missing Pittman in the endzone was a huge blunder, but neither team turned the ball over. If Beasley doesn't go the Bills probably lose that game. Dude is so clutch.

Punting game for the Colts was great- they pinned the Bills the whole first half- despite this Buffalo still scored 2 tds 1sth. One td drive from the 15 and one from the 4 yard line (1:32 minute drive). A 96 yard drive to go up before the half and they never trailed again. They punted 1x in the second half and that was because of the 1 bad play Allen made (for all the great plays Allen makes, that sack was maddening).

Everyone is so focused on whether or not the Bills can stop the run. Can the Ravens stop the Bills passing game? Allen was the highest rated passer of the weekend and was straight up throwing dimes. Are the Ravens really going to try and blitz him because he will torch them. Another game in which I think you'd have to be insane to bet the under. Looking like there's a chance this goes to a pick em game. Already banged the o24.5 for Buffalo
 
spottie2935 said:
certainly both of these teams are full of questions. Bills played a good D last week and scored 27. Balty played a bad D last week and scored 20. I am not sure if the Bills can duplicate shutting down Balty but as it look last week it was a one man show with Lamar. Lamar is excellent but Buffalo at home is what I prefer.
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Im certainly not trying to knock bills, I been thinking the second half the season they the one team who might knock kc off so I have a ton of respect for them. I know titans d sucks but I really don’t think how titans took away ravens running backs something bills can duplicate. I think a huge part of trying to stop the ravens rushing attack is 2 fold, you gotta match their physicality at point of attack, and you gotta have linebackers and safeties that are totally on point when it comes to reading their keys. Similar to containing a option attack but one that is on steroids and has much better ability to throw!

As much I don’t think titans defense taking ravens backs away and holding them to 20 means much, I also don’t think there much of anything to take away from the fact bills allowed titans to hang 40+!!! And bills only scored 16 vs them! So oddly enough that crappy titans d did a fantastic job vs both these offenses! Freaking strange!

ultimately just think ravens in the trenches will win the physicality battle which will again put a tremendous amount of pressure on Allen to be fantastic. Certainly something he has proven capable of but this a really good secondary too, one I think light years more talented than colts secondary. All that said as I mentioned at beginning of thread I was really hoping to get +3.5 or +4 with ravens, Not thrilled with the idea they now have to win to cash the bet! This easily the game I’m most looking forward to this weekend!! From a watching perspective, not betting!! lol
 
Lexington 125 said:
Moss loss is a tough one.... he's good in pass protection which could come into play here... Antonio Williams could be a nice story after ripping the Fins, but his pass protection abilities remain to be seen. All in all the Buffalo run game isn't going to decide whether not not the Bills win.


A couple takeaways from the Colts game- The Bills didn't cover, but let's all stop with the Bills d is terrible narrative. They held Taylor to 3.7 ypc. T.Y had 2 catches. The Colts came with a great gameplan and nearly executed it perfectly. Rivers missing Pittman in the endzone was a huge blunder, but neither team turned the ball over. If Beasley doesn't go the Bills probably lose that game. Dude is so clutch.

Punting game for the Colts was great- they pinned the Bills the whole first half- despite this Buffalo still scored 2 tds 1sth. One td drive from the 15 and one from the 4 yard line (1:32 minute drive). A 96 yard drive to go up before the half and they never trailed again. They punted 1x in the second half and that was because of the 1 bad play Allen made (for all the great plays Allen makes, that sack was maddening).

Everyone is so focused on whether or not the Bills can stop the run. Can the Ravens stop the Bills passing game? Allen was the highest rated passer of the weekend and was straight up throwing dimes. Are the Ravens really going to try and blitz him because he will torch them. Another game in which I think you'd have to be insane to bet the under. Looking like there's a chance this goes to a pick em game. Already banged the o24.5 for Buffalo
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think I heard colts were 1st team in playoff history to put up that amount of yards with no turnovers and lose. Forget exactly what it was but something like that. I don’t think bills defense is terrible at all, they have playmakers at key positions and they good situationally/in red zone. Where I think they somewhat deficient is their physicality up front. That is where I’m not sure they matchup great w a ravens team who prides themself on being the more physical team. I do think most colts gashing runs were more a result of running in situations where bills were expecting pass so don’t knock them for those. Take them late chunk runs away and the colts rushing numbers were putrid in that game.

totally agree without a doubt bills will be able to pass, don’t think any defense is taking away that passing attack! Ravens defense is fantastic at keeping throws in front of them tho, only allowing 5.9 yards per attempt despite teams completing 64% their passes. Agree bout total, I couldn’t play the under. I think it gonna be a fantastic game. Allen vs Lamar plus mahomes feels like gonna be a bunch of incredible playoff battles the next 5 years!! For as much I knock the new nfl product at times don’t think ya could ask for more than this!!
 
Line dropped as low as Bills-1.5, was hoping the hook dropped off but it's now back at -2.5. So far 4 unit play on o24.5-125. Leans to Bills ML & over.


What will the Ravens game plan be? It's such a different matchup from the Titans- Tenn had made up their mind they were going to live & die by Henry. Everyone knew what was coming, and the Ravens played it perfectly. Corey Davis only had 2 targets? I keep going back to the one play where Tanne didn't see AJ Brown streaking wide open with his hand up. Allen won't miss that play. He has shown he can get through progressions and find the open man. The Ravens secondary is very good but if there is a wr core that can stand up to them it's the Bills. Diggs is playing elite, Beasley banged up but still a 1st down machine. Between Gabe/Smoke they are also capable of going yard. If the Ravens do play man and try zero blitzing and Allen gets free he'll be able to run all day. I don't expect as much Allen running, but man coverage can free him up. Bills didn't call up rb Williams, though they still can Friday I think they may be content to primarily use Singletary spelled by Yeldon. Singletary may be a nice rush/rec yards prop to look at...
 
Another thing to consider-

Tre White on Hollywood Brown. Ravens will have to find another explosive player. Andrews scares me the most in this matchup.
 
2daBank said:
Im certainly not trying to knock bills, I been thinking the second half the season they the one team who might knock kc off so I have a ton of respect for them. I know titans d sucks but I really don’t think how titans took away ravens running backs something bills can duplicate. I think a huge part of trying to stop the ravens rushing attack is 2 fold, you gotta match their physicality at point of attack, and you gotta have linebackers and safeties that are totally on point when it comes to reading their keys. Similar to containing a option attack but one that is on steroids and has much better ability to throw!

As much I don’t think titans defense taking ravens backs away and holding them to 20 means much, I also don’t think there much of anything to take away from the fact bills allowed titans to hang 40+!!! And bills only scored 16 vs them! So oddly enough that crappy titans d did a fantastic job vs both these offenses! Freaking strange!

ultimately just think ravens in the trenches will win the physicality battle which will again put a tremendous amount of pressure on Allen to be fantastic. Certainly something he has proven capable of but this a really good secondary too, one I think light years more talented than colts secondary. All that said as I mentioned at beginning of thread I was really hoping to get +3.5 or +4 with ravens, Not thrilled with the idea they now have to win to cash the bet! This easily the game I’m most looking forward to this weekend!! From a watching perspective, not betting!! lol
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Thank you for all your words and efforts. I am working through all these games and just like you finding this game not quite as easy as i first thought.

I missed the Ravens D performance last week and this could pose troubles ahead for the Bills.

I already have a better line so jumping off the bills wont hurt me.

Thanks again
 
I had to look twice to see that was Lamar’s first playoff win/.

Wow. I thought he had one before
 
spottie2935 said:
Thank you for all your words and efforts. I am working through all these games and just like you finding this game not quite as easy as i first thought.

I missed the Ravens D performance last week and this could pose troubles ahead for the Bills.

I already have a better line so jumping off the bills wont hurt me.

Thanks again
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same bro, always enjoy reading what you have to add and respect your opinion as well.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Another thing to consider-

Tre White on Hollywood Brown. Ravens will have to find another explosive player. Andrews scares me the most in this matchup.
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andrews the tight end i find myself using in majority the dfs lineups I filled out. What you think about John brown in this matchup? His goose egg last week really hurt few of my pretty good lineups! I want to go back to the well with him tho, gotta imagine at least one of him or Davis will have to pop along with Beasley moving the chains, gotta figure they gonna key on diggs!
 
2daBank said:
andrews the tight end i find myself using in majority the dfs lineups I filled out. What you think about John brown in this matchup? His goose egg last week really hurt few of my pretty good lineups! I want to go back to the well with him tho, gotta imagine at least one of him or Davis will have to pop along with Beasley moving the chains, gotta figure they gonna key on diggs!
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Dfs I think Beasley might be a better option as it's likely he gets double the targets. McKenzie might get more motion plays this week to try and get the Ravens overpursuing.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Dfs I think Beasley might be a better option as it's likely he gets double the targets. McKenzie might get more motion plays this week to try and get the Ravens overpursuing.
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yea, im for sure gonna have Beasley in several. Just trying to figure out the best cheap option who might pop. I always been partial to Brown when he healthy, I think he a underrated 2.
 
twinkie13 said:
I swear. Kinda just forgot
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I thought the narrative he couldnt win a playoff game or come from behind was just stupid!! After all they faced some good teams and ran into a titans buzz saw last year. The kid gonna win many playoff games in his career!! Peyton started his career 0-3 in playoffs before breaking thru! It tough to win in playoffs!!!
 
2daBank said:
yea, im for sure gonna have Beasley in several. Just trying to figure out the best cheap option who might pop. I always been partial to Brown when he healthy, I think he a underrated 2.
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You really do love Brown hahaha. He's likely gone next year so they can free up space to pay Milano.
 
Have to revisit special teams. Worth repeating the Colts pinned the Bills the entire 1sth. Bills drive starts 1sth

1st drive- 3 yard line. 3 and out

2nd drive- 15 yard line- TD 8 plays 85 yards.

3rd drive- 11 yard line. 3 and out

4th drive- 6 yard line- 3 Moss runs and out.

5th drive- 4 yard line- TD 10 plays 96 yards in 1:32.

All drive starts inside the 15, that's amazing. Also very unlikely to happen again. Andre Roberts is one of the best return men in the game.

A big plus for the over is Tucker being automatic. It's also con for laying points in what could be a very down to the wire game.Tyler Bass has progressed as the season went on to be a really trustworthy kicker. Having two solid kickers definitely helps out in this league where suddenly nobody can even hit extra points. Also both teams are very good in the redzone. Still the only wager I've made is Bills o24.5, now sitting back at 27. Saw the ML as low as -130 and if I do again I'll play it.
 
Capaholic said:
I think some TT overs are a play and sit back and root for points. Should be the game of the weekend easily. (Cue up final of 17-3)
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Line just dipped to 49.5 & tt aren't budging. Payed a juiced 24.5 for Buffalo early in the week but hoping the number drops so I can play 1sth over. Currently o10.5-155 which I hate that much juice.


Weather hype may be the driving force. There's been a bunch of talk about the offensive playcalling (Allen running so much) but I think they were taking what the Colts would give them and waiting to strike. Bears repeating they were pinned inside the 15 for EVERY 1sth possession. I do not think they will be conservative AT ALL vs the Ravens. Unless Allen goes down I see no way the Ravens hold this offense in check the whole game. Outside of one play Allen was poised and played as good as you can ask in his second playoff start. Allen>>>>>>Tannehill and the gameplan won't be to grind. Bills rbs had 10 carries last week so the loss of Moss isn't crazy.

One thing that worries me about the total is if the Bills just wipe out the passing game and hold the run largely in check. Again can't see Brown having success vs Tre and the rest of the wrs aren't worrying anyone. I know I know I'm a Bills fan but I have way more concern about the Bills winning 26-17 type game and it staying under than a Ravens blowout. Andrews in scary, and this just seems like the type of game he'll break out in. I tend to think Dobbins gets featured, I think they'll move the ball.
 
Also hats off to the Ravens for silencing Henry, but previous to that they played 3 games vs teams with no pulse on offense. The Browns put up 42 on them.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Also hats off to the Ravens for silencing Henry, but previous to that they played 3 games vs teams with no pulse on offense. The Browns put up 42 on them.
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I've been super high on Baltimore and advocated futures tickets on them weeks ago. If I had to choose a side here, I would lean Buffalo. Theres just so much these two teams do well that the other also does well. Turnovers of any kind will largely be hugeeeee. I don't want to face either next week, but the sports fan in me wouldnt mind seeing some joy in Buffalo.
 
I love Josh Allen and Lamar.

The on field after game interview with Lamar last week showed what a respectful, focused, team player that guy is. He has a great, winning demeanor.

2 of the top 3 coaches in the AFC facing up.

My nonanaltyical gut says take 2.5.

But I could see what Lex sees with Bill scoring late to get cover from 2 to 9.

Colts felt lucky to cover after leaving so many pts on board 1st half, and Bills taking lead at half after losing field position first 2 qtrs. Bills didnt put them away. I like Ravens O a bunch more than Rivers led Colts.

Can the Ravens successfully run?

The Bills ranked 17th in DVOA against the run and allowed 4.6 yards per carry, seventh worst in the league. They gave up 163 yards on 30 carries against the Colts
 
I am very interested to see what Martindale does with his approach on Josh Allen. I would think he wants to contain him in the pocket? Allen is deadly when he can buy time on a scramble then throw a bazooka way down field. Ravens like to blitz a lot, so what does he do here? I do think Balt secondary is very good, Jimmy Smith very under rated and Humphrey is really good. Just looking at strength vs strength, I like Balt ability to defend Buff passing game vs. Buff being able to stop the Ravens on the ground. Ravens need to just keep running, control the clock and limit Buff possessions. Ravens obv don't want to have to come from two scores down and have the script flipped on them.
 
Looking at the prop lines now, juicy one but here's what i think

Beasley rec o3.5-210- he's gone over this # last 4 of 5 games, the one he didn't was 3 catches on 5 targets in the blowout win vs the Pats. He doesn't drop passes and is loot on 3rd downs. Balty is going to scheme to take away Diggs (Harbaugh has said as much) and Allen will look elsewhere. I'd expect a 6 target minimum for him but wouldn't be surprised to see 10+ targets

Total FGs o3.5+100- Tucker is automatic, Bass has been money. Both teams are great in the redzone but it's hard not to see 4 attempts in a game.
 
rb Antonio Williams was called up to the active roster, we'll see if he is activated for the game. If he is, I'd think they use him. Virtually unknown what he can do but he at least gives depth at back and had some bruising runs vs Miami. I'd like to see him get a little play.

@2daBank Singletary is another sneaky dfs option. His touches will go up, the defensive scheme for the Ravens may force the Bills to run a little more. He's used out of the backfield. Hasn't scored much this year but you never know
 
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