2.26

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Injuries are the name of the game so far. On Sunday looking at small down day or flat depending on Indys outcome.

Char @ LAC : The injury list is full with concern. Charlotte already missing big men Harrington and May are dealing with injuries to Okefor , Wallace and Breven Knight still all listed as QUESTIONABLE. While LAC already w/o Doug Christie signed for depth recently have issues with Tim Thomas , Sam Cassell and Chris Kaman who looks doubtful. Everyone healthy I would have expected about -6 or -6.5 but who knows now...

Port @ Sea : Again Rashard Lewis is questionable so who knows what to expect. Generally I think Port is playing better ball but not sure there is any value in side or total. Probably would rather take a stab at the ML Portland..Though the more I look at it series history does point to an over...

Lakers @ Utah : You guessed medical alert as Okur has missed two straight games and AK-47 missed the last. Both expect to play but are questionable. Boozer is back as well. I cant see how even with Utah fully healthy this line gets higher then -4.5 / -5 . I still think its closer to -3.5 but lets see...think the total is 207 ish...LAL has momentum so I might side with them...

Atl @ dal : we have 5th in 7 for Hawks...not much interest here..maybe DAL team over or pick a half for Dallas....

Boston@ Hou : A game that inspires no one. Not the rockets off 2 tough road games or the Celts after 2 beating and a return home after this. Could be one of those were the Hous team over and Bos team Under look attractive....do you wnat to lay 9 pts with a disinterested team or take themn with a bda team off beatings who could be thinking about the flight home??

Orl @ Chi : You have 5th in 7 for Orlando and 4th in 5 for Chi both off tough losses but especially Chi. I think Bulls bounce back after a close loss but I like the UND 188...

Tor @ SA : maybe an under...so hard to fade SA here...

Den @ memphis : Could no take DEN as road chalk....its probably another gamble with the home doggie.....227 is high but if anyone gets there its these two....Nuggets have lost 4 straight and Mem even played decent on the road last few games...how can Den be +3 in Milw and nearly -3 here after losing 4 straight..??

Miami @ NYK : would be suprised with anything other then a PK here...Lee is questionable / game time still.....huge loss IMO....if NYK is a dog will probably roll with them...high total 195 ish will go under

Sac @ Philly: With 4th in 5 and maybe no Artest it would sem like a prime fade spot for Sac if they win SU in indiana..thinking 196 is sort of high with phillys offense struggling....

Just my initial thoughts......BOL
 
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Orlando Magic/Chicago Bulls UNDER 188.5

^^GIFT gonna grab it now @ CRIS
 
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NUt,

You dont feel like there is any value with the magic, I think everyone will be against them tonight but I think they keep it close in Chicago...The bulls couldnt close the game out yesterday after being up double digits, they always hit a dry spell..I just cant see them pulling away against the magic....D Howard is going to show out against Wallace IMO
 
Troutman said:
NUt,

You dont feel like there is any value with the magic, I think everyone will be against them tonight but I think they keep it close in Chicago...The bulls couldnt close the game out yesterday after being up double digits, they always hit a dry spell..I just cant see them pulling away against the magic....D Howard is going to show out against Wallace IMO
Click to expand...


I think the biggest difference is that the Bulls DO close out at home vs the road. You're correct that they usually have large droughts in road games that cost them games, but at home those don't appear. Just look at the point diffirential for their home games. 100.3 to 89.5 It's a major reason they're 18-11 ATS at home. Matter of fact if you want to grab the points with Orlando then you'd be smart to take the ML for half of your bet as the Bulls have only won 4 games SU at home that they didn't cover.
 
Thanks Jpicks..i was unaware that there was such a large differential at home...My gut still says to fade the pulls who will be happy just to get a win..I think Orlando brings it and makes it close..similiar to the Detroit Chicago game yesterday...JMO..Gl
 
Have to agree with ya cake. Those Blazers look real enticing. Not sure exactly why they made it so high only thing I can think of is they made memphis +7.5 last week in Sea and with a small spread and close loss they are implying that Portland = Memphis..

Trout ,

I do I am just no crazy about backing them. Bulls in a tough spot playing the 4th nite in 5 days and was more hoping for a tough win then ytough loss. Like JPicks said dry spells on the road are much more common place then at home...I would not take the Bulls here it would be ORL or pass...BOL

Good point by JPicks our local Utah Jazz beat reporter. BOL

Well the Memphis Grizzlies are what many teams need but I am personally not interested in playing Denver as road chalk...I rather get embarrassed with mem ML...and that under is juicy......BOL
 
Joe Johnson (Hawks) Total Points+Assists - Must Start UNDER 28.5 thoughts?
 
Being ATL could get smoked here its worth a look. Based on previous performance I am not sure I see value in that though...think 7 of 11 away he topped 29 P+A....lately taking alot of shots had some games with alot of assists...like 11 @ Pho...
 
SportsNut said:
Being ATL could get smoked here its worth a look. Based on previous performance I am not sure I see value in that though...think 7 of 11 away he topped 29 P+A....lately taking alot of shots had some games with alot of assists...like 11 @ Pho...
Click to expand...
yeah but those all are from games the hawks were in also look at how many minutes he play in the last four games 34(got blownout @ CHI) 47 (home vs SAS they were in it til the end) 45 (home vs HOU they were leading all game by a little) 45 (home vs suns they were in it to the end) now he going to be playing 5th game in 7th days at dallas going up against josh howardView attachment 3094this one shouldnt be close and i like my chances the under is at +125 right now ill wait til game time maybe itll be around +150
 
then again i guess houston can pick how much they want to win by after playing that physical game at orlando yesterday. maximum effort, which i dont know they will, a 9 pt win should cash. however, i can know start to see a lackluster effort in which they win by 4.

looking at some others ...
 
Brewers : I would prefer Houston or pass the number is jsut big enough to take Boston since they are winding down a road trip. Houston plays execellent defense and Boston doesnt play any...might get involved on some Hou MP parlays or something.....BOL

cake: agree with the assessment the competiveness of the game is key. Thats why I through out there since that ATL could get smoked it worth looking at. hawks are a better road dog then home dog of late...agree its not a spot I wnatto lay the over in but damn if this guy is taking 20-25 shots a nite...its hard to imagine he cant get to 25 P+A..so not much wiggle room is all I am saying...
 
I could slap Paul Peirce in the face for not putting up the numbers I needed. Should have kept that bet smaller than I did.

Tonight going with
Denver -1.5 @ the half and Denver -2.5 @ the game spread
I think these boys should come out here and win this one. I am laying $75 on the first half and only $25 on the game, I expect them to come out very motivated. I would expect them to be more likely to fall apart during the end of it all.

Big Ben ov. 11.5 rebounds $20
This guy has been very trendy with his rebounds, mainly grabbing a ton at the United Center and barely ever reaching his average on the road. I think I will start going with the over when playing in Chi-town.

Ben Gordon -4 over Grant Hill $10
Gordon has been a scoring machine, Orlando hasn't been the team to shut down opponents either. Expect to see more action from Gordon than Hill.

Still seeing small wagers from me, unfortanetely. Lost a huge portion of my stock on Pierce, almost back down to $100 where I started Feb 20th very dissappointing.

Good Luck tonight Sports
 
MX: Tough one. The only lucky break I caught was not findinga Pierce prop. I had the Iggy P+A+R prop though at 31 and he had 30 to start the 4th an caught the goose egg....

N othing wrong with slow and steady. I truly admire anyone that doesnt extend himself wagering money he doesnt have. I throw around alot of units but no longer big money...

Will be against you On Den cause I can resist a good dog..Like the Chi props only scare point is the fact Chi is playing fourth in 5 days....BOL
 
Take a look at the recent final scores of Portland games. They are now an OVER team, and I think this total is 10-15 points off.
 
....

Sixers -2 {3units}+3.00
Under 1st H 97 {1unit} +1.00

The play on Philly is based on situation only. If I had to set a line it would be PK but the fact that Sac is off a SU win in Indy and playing fourth in five makes me believe that is the reason for the inflation to 2.5. Artest is returning and there seems to be some mystery surrounding him again. Not sure how his teammates will welcome him. Bibby and Martin went off last nite but Brad Miller may have to scale back his minutes in B2B's..with his foot problems..Funny thing is when Artest misses a road game they are 3-2 SU and 3 pts away from 4-1 BUT with him they are just 5-17 SU away. Now you have a spot where you basically looking to pick the winner and Sac is 5-17 SU away with Ron Artest....like Philly size here and Sca lack of it...

Like the under here but with Kings undersized and playing little defense cant start counting on them to play defense..

Over 191 Miami {3units} +3.00
Heat +4 {5units} ML +160 {1unit} -6.50

Would really love to play just the ML but I am NYK fan. Truth is maybe I am crazy but still thought we would see closer to a PKem. Wades absence possibly worth 4 spread points but Miami has depth to overcome with Shaq playing well. No Wade or Shaq and Miami crusied as -1 at home plus NY is missing David Lee. The NYK have been tough at the Garden but still tend to be small favs versus bad teams ..Miami limited there minutes yesterday and can go 8 or 9 deep where as NY is minus Francis and Lee. Most key NYK players played alot of minutes and this is 3rd in for them.

None of th emeeting shave been close to make point spreads a concern thats why the value is +140 rather then 3.5 IMO....love this over with both on B2B and the fact missed FTs really skewed the Heat / cavs score..Miami has not stopped anyone on defense and with a soldi effort can they dupolicate it away where they havestruggled to stop anyone...?? If not for crazy up and down line movement I might pound this ova....

Still going through the later games....
 
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8 PM...

Under 189 Spurs {3units} -3.30
Grizz +3 {4units} ML +130{1unit}
Over 223 Denver {3units}

Expect a typical SA home game with the recent return to excellent defense..

I may be the crazy one liking MEM here but Den is showing me nothing recently and Memphis I thought held up well L4 away. They have been tough at home and simply like the home dog angle here. there will be zero defense played and its a matter of who plays better Gasol and Miller Or Melo and AI..will probably be on the over 224 as well just waiting to see where it ends up and if rather play the 1st H over...it was 233 on the road and quite cheaper here.
 
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8:30

Magic +7 {4units} ML +260 {1/2unit}
Houston -8.5 {3units}

This is more a play against Chi won lost a tough game and is playing 4in 5 and 5 in 7 since the Break with some tough games. Orl has looked crappy but played okay vs Det and Hou at home..Orl is playing 5th in 7 but they arent the favorite....

The under looks so attractive but Chi offense has been so solid at home recently and Orl hasnt really stopped anyone lately. So if I expect a close game hard to believe we dont see mid 90's...

Boston playing 5th away in 7 days . Think Hou defense will be to tough here
 
SportsNut said:
....

Sixers -2 {3units}
Under 1st H 97 {1unit}

The play on Philly is based on situation only. If I had to set a line it would be PK but the fact that Sac is off a SU win in Indy and playing fourth in five makes me believe that is the reason for the inflation to 2.5. Artest is returning and there seems to be some mystery surrounding him again. Not sure how his teammates will welcome him. Bibby and Martin went off last nite but Brad Miller may have to scale back his minutes in B2B's..with his foot problems..Funny thing is when Artest misses a road game they are 3-2 SU and 3 pts away from 4-1 BUT with him they are just 5-17 SU away. Now you have a spot where you basically looking to pick the winner and Sac is 5-17 SU away with Ron Artest....like Philly size here and Sca lack of it...

Like the under here but with Kings undersized and playing little defense cant start counting on them to play defense..

Over 192 Miami {3units}
Heat +3.5 {5units} ML +140 {1unit}

Would really love to play just the ML but I am NYK fan. Truth is maybe I am crazy but still thought we would see closer to a PKem. Wades absence possibly worth 4 spread points but Miami has depth to overcome with Shaq playing well. No Wade or Shaq and Miami crusied as -1 at home plus NY is missing David Lee. The NYK have been tough at the Garden but still tend to be small favs versus bad teams ..Miami limited there minutes yesterday and can go 8 or 9 deep where as NY is minus Francis and Lee. Most key NYK players played alot of minutes and this is 3rd in for them.

None of th emeeting shave been close to make point spreads a concern thats why the value is +140 rather then 3.5 IMO....love this over with both on B2B and the fact missed FTs really skewed the Heat / cavs score..Miami has not stopped anyone on defense and with a soldi effort can they dupolicate it away where they havestruggled to stop anyone...?? If not for crazy up and down line movement I might pound this ova....

Still going through the later games....
Click to expand...


One reservation about the Knicks OVER....

"We played, I thought, one of the best defensive games of the year," Heat coach Pat Riley said. "We really have to try to control tempo, slow it down and grind it out defensively, and rebound the basketball. That's going to take a different disposition than we've had in the past."

It looks like Riley is trying to slow down the tempo and focus on defense. Whether it works or not is a different story, but I wanted to point it since you are playing the OVER tonight. GL
 
Denver gonna whop at ass
DXA11301230505-big.jpg
 
magic-bulls under 190.5 now :new_shocked:

G St. @ MIL hova 216 better play at now
 
Cake I am staying away from that Under just dont like the effort of ORL lately and expect a tight game. You know me I am sucker for MEM home dog plays.BOL

Mets...definetly something I appreciate. I start with thresholds and these two teams have had been inconsistent vs eachother ...but I would be suprised if they cant crack 5 vs eachother watch 96-95 final!! Seriously they still had 79 shots and allowed 86. the FT shooting was disgusting and takes away from the tempo of the game ...25 of 51...thats a joke...BOL..gonna be interesting...
 
add..

Over Utah 208 {4units}
Lakers +6.5 {2units} ML +230 {1/2unit}

Staying cautious on the LAL play cause the line seems way to high. Isnt Utah the one with its 4 top players banged up....Okur , AK , Willaims and boozer..all seeemingly less then 100%...Boozer limited minutes , Williams adding sore wrist to his groin woes , and AK and Okur you know the deal....not expecting any defense cause Utah has no answer for Kobe and LAL is to small for Utah...
 
SportsNut said:
8:30

Magic +7 {4units} ML +260 {1/2unit}
Houston -8.5 {3units}

This is more a play against Chi won lost a tough game and is playing 4in 5 and 5 in 7 since the Break with some tough games. Orl has looked crappy but played okay vs Det and Hou at home..Orl is playing 5th in 7 but they arent the favorite....

The under looks so attractive but Chi offense has been so solid at home recently and Orl hasnt really stopped anyone lately. So if I expect a close game hard to believe we dont see mid 90's...

Boston playing 5th away in 7 days . Think Hou defense will be to tough here
Click to expand...

You know Tracy is possibly out?
 
Swede one of the few times I played something way before tip....and this is a big reason why I dont.....I am stuck with Hou -8.5....thanks for the heads up though....him sitting with FLU syptoms tells u how much Bos scares them...BOL tonite
 
add:

Blazers +7 1unit} ML +250 {2units}

Would play the over but its has been properly adjusted maybe over adjusted...games @ LAL and @ Den were 198 and 199..that makes 203 to high for me.....
 
2nd H :

Over 93 Bulls {5units}

Originally I had really like the under . Never got involved cause I thought the number was fair and suprisingly went higher. Figured I would sit out and watch the 1st H. All along I thought this would be a close game with late FTs pushing it over....so now I get a discount of 184.....

Under 95.5 Dallas {2.5 units}

Blowout city


Under 92 Hou {1unit}

Would have played this heavier at 94 or 95 but has been well adjusted. Just think this stays in teh 70's....
 
thoughts on HOuston 2nd H...I have Boston +7 for the game ..down by 6 at half...what ya think?
 
I think they just might hang around. If I oculd have somehwo got out of my -8.5 I would have....I wont say your safe but I think ur chances are better then mine...If you dont feel comfortable by all means take advantage off the opportunity hedge the play.

Good Luck cake...wise move IMO..
 
Well the damn Heat managed to piss that game away. I just never understand how can you lead an enitre half, be up with 90 seconds left and then the final looks like you werent really even in the game let alobe 95% of it late.....lucked out waiting on the total 191 was a win instead of 192 push..execpt instead of being 4-0 +13.50 units I am 3-1 +1/2 unit
 
thecakeoff said:
yeah but those all are from games the hawks were in also look at how many minutes he play in the last four games 34(got blownout @ CHI) 47 (home vs SAS they were in it til the end) 45 (home vs HOU they were leading all game by a little) 45 (home vs suns they were in it to the end) now he going to be playing 5th game in 7th days at dallas going up against josh howardView attachment 3094this one shouldnt be close and i like my chances the under is at +125 right now ill wait til game time maybe itll be around +150
Click to expand...
lol joe playing in 4th Q ina blowout joke
 
if joe still in after this timeout with 5:28 down 19 did i cap it right or not SportsNut?
 
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