Week 7 in the FCS

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Thursday, October 12

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
Wagner at Saint Francis U.	7:00pm	CBSSN

Saturday, October 14

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
Princeton at Brown	12:00pm	ESPN+
Sacred Heart at Yale	12:00pm	ESPN+
Georgetown at Lehigh	12:00pm	ESPN+
San Diego at Marist	12:00pm	TV TBA
CCSU at Duquesne	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Dartmouth at Colgate	1:00pm	TV TBA
Davidson at Butler	1:00pm	FloSports
Presbyterian at Dayton	1:00pm	Facebook
Howard at Harvard	1:00pm	ESPN+
Bucknell at Cornell	1:00pm	ESPN+
VMI at The Citadel	1:00pm	Nexstar/ESPN+
Furman at Samford	1:00pm	ESPN+
UAlbany at New Hampshire	1:00pm	FloSports
Richmond at Rhode Island	1:00pm	FloSports
LIU at Maine	1:00pm	FloSports/FOX 22
Hampton at Monmouth	1:00pm	FloSports / SNY /NBCS PHI
Elon at Villanova	1:00pm	FloSports
St. Thomas at Drake	1:00pm	ESPN+
Tennessee Tech at SC State	1:30pm	ESPN+
Penn at Columbia	1:30pm	ESPN+/SNY
Gardner-Webb at Austin Peay	2:00pm	ESPN+
North Dakota State at North Dakota	2:00pm	ESPN+/ABC ND/Midco
Youngstown State at South Dakota	2:00pm	TV TBA
Morehead State at Valparaiso	2:00pm	ESPN+
UAPB at MVSU	3:00pm	Valley SN
Tarleton State at Eastern Kentucky	3:00pm	ESPN+
Alabama State at Jackson State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Alabama A&M at Grambling State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Texas Southern at Bethune-Cookman	3:00pm	HBCU GO
North Carolina A&T at Delaware	3:00pm	FloSports/NBCS PHI+
Southern Illinois at Murray State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Sacramento State at Northern Colorado	3:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Iowa at South Dakota State	3:00pm	TV TBA
Indiana State at Illinois State	3:00pm	ESPN+/Marquee SN
Eastern Illinois at Southeast Missouri	3:00pm	ESPN+
Fordham at Stony Brook	3:30pm	FloSports
Wofford at ETSU	3:30pm	ESPN+
Chattanooga at Mercer	4:00pm	ESPN+
Robert Morris at Bryant	4:00pm	ESPN+
Portland State at Northern Arizona	4:00pm	ESPN+
Northwestern State at Nicholls	4:00pm	ESPN+
North Alabama at Abilene Christian	4:00pm	ESPN+
Missouri State at Western Illinois	4:00pm	ESPN+
Lindenwood at Charleston Sou.	4:00pm	ESPN+
Lamar at Southeastern La.	4:00pm	ESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at Central Arkansas	5:00pm	ESPN+
Texas A&M-Commerce at UIW	5:00pm	ESPN+
Lincoln (CA) at Southern	5:00pm	Jaguar SN
Eastern Washington at Idaho State	6:00pm	ESPN+
Norfolk State at Tennessee State	6:00pm	ESPN+
Prairie View A&M at HCU	7:00pm	ESPN+
Cal Poly at Montana State	8:00pm	ESPN+/Scripps/MTN TV
UC Davis at Weber State	8:00pm	ESPN+
Montana at Idaho	10:30pm	ESPN2

 

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BIG SKY

FARMINGTON, Utah (Oct. 8, 2023) — Idaho, Montana and Northern Arizona picked up wins on Saturday, as road teams went 3-0 to highlight Week 6 action in Big Sky football.

In the lone ranked matchup on Saturday, No. 17 Montana picked up an impressive 31-23 victory over No. 20 UC Davis.

The Griz were led on offense by quarterback Clifton McDowell, who racked up nearly 300 yards of total offense, while throwing three touchdowns on the day. Two of those touchdowns went to Aaron Fontes, who made one of the best catches of the 2023 season with his second-quarter grab.

The win was Montana's first on the road over a nationally ranked FCS opponent since its last trip to Davis in 2019.

Elsewhere In California, No. 3 Idaho took care of business as the Vandals won a 42-14 contest at Cal Poly.

Five different Vandals scored touchdowns, with wide receiver Hayden Hatten earning the most highlight-worthy score after he tossed his second touchdown pass of the year.

Idaho hosts Montana next Saturday, as the Vandals and Griz clash on ESPN2.

The final contest of Week 6 saw Northern Arizona knock off another ranked foe as the Lumberjacks won 27-10 at No. 13 Weber State.

Coleman Owen provided NAU with a spark in the second quarter, as the redshirt junior returned a punt 85 yards for a touchdown to give the Lumberjacks the lead for good.

The win was NAU's first ranked road victory since 2015.
Follow all things #BigSkyFB on Twitter and Instagram at @BigSkyFB. Follow the Big Sky Conference (@BigSkyConf) on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Blue Sky, and TikTok for all the latest news around the league and use the hashtag #ExperienceElevated.

Big Sky Football Week 6 Scores
Saturday, Oct. 7
FCS Rankings: Stats Perform/AFCA

#17/13 Montana 31, #20/18 UC Davis 23
Read Full Montana Recap

#3/3 Idaho 42, Cal Poly 14
Read Full Idaho Recap

Northern Arizona 27, #13/14 Weber State 10
Read Full NAU Recap


BIG SOUTH / OVC

Gardner-Webb, Lindenwood and UT Martin picked up Association wins on Saturday while Tennessee State topped Kennesaw State in non-conference play.

SATURDAY'S SCORES
#18/23 UT Martin 28, @#25 Eastern Illinois 27 (OT)
@Gardner-Webb 31, Robert Morris 16
@Lindenwood 23, Tennessee Tech 0
Tennessee State 27, @Kennesaw State 20
@#23 Central Arkansas 38, Southeast Missouri 33

#18/23 UT MARTIN 28, #25 EASTERN ILLINOIS 27 (OT) | BOX SCORE
UT Martin knocked down a two-point conversion pass in overtime to knock off nationally-ranked Eastern Illinois and improve to 2-0 in Big South-OVC Association games. The game was tight throughout as it was tied at 0, 7, 14 and 21 before the extra period. Kinkead Dent threw two touchdowns and the Skyhawks combined to rush for 163 yards. Pierce Holley had four passing scores for the Panthers.

GARDNER-WEBB 31, ROBERT MORRIS 16 | BOX SCORE
Gardner-Webb scored 21 first quarter points on its way to a victory over Robert Morris. Matthew Caldwell threw for two touchdowns and ran for another while Jayden Brown hauled in three passes, two of which went for scores. Chaese Jackson caught a game-high 10 passes for RMU.

LINDENWOOD 23, TENNESSEE TECH 0 | BOX SCORE
Lindenwood netted its first shutout since the 2005 season in topping Tennessee Tech on Saturday. It marked the first league win of the season for the Lions. Spencer Redd took the opening kickoff 99 yards to the end zone to give Lindenwood a quick 7-0 lead and the team would not look back.

TENNESSEE STATE 27, KENNESAW STATE 20 | BOX SCORE
Tennessee State got on the scoreboard first and never trailed on the way to a 27-20 win over Kennesaw State Saturday afternoon on the road at Fifth Third Bank Stadium. The victory improved Tennessee State's record to 3-2 on the season.

#23 CENTRAL ARKANSAS 38, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 33 | BOX SCORE
No. 23 Central Arkansas (4-2) scored 32 fourth-quarter points to wipe out a 24-point deficit in a 38-33 win over Southeast Missouri (1-4) Saturday at Estes Stadium. SEMO led, 30-6, with 53 seconds left to play in the third quarter before UCA put together its ferocious comeback. Geno Hess broke free for his 57th career rushing touchdown when his 19-yard burst capped SEMO's longest drive of the game. He finished the game with 122 rushing yards and caught four passes for 27 yards.

CAA

UAlbany, Campbell and Villanova earned CAA road victories, while Richmond outlasted Maine in a shootout. Rhode Island claimed the Governor's Cup for the fifth straight year and Delaware stayed unbeaten at home in non-conference action.

Campbell 30, Hampton 27
Box Score

Hajj-Malik Williams threw for 238 yards and 2 TD’s and Campbell added 202 yards on the ground as the Camels (3-3, 2-2 CAA) earned a 30-27 road victory over Hampton (3-2, 1-1 CAA). The Pirates got out to a quick 7-0 lead on a 45-yard TD run by Elijah Burris, but Campbell answered with a 2-yard scoring run from Na’Quari Rogers and a 7-yard TD catch by Ezeriah Anderson to go up 14-7 at halftime. Hampton tied the contest midway through the third quarter on a 22-yard TD catch from Evan King. A 12-yard Anderson touchdown reception late in the third period put the Camels back on top, and Campbell extended its lead to 30-14 early in the fourth quarter following a safety and a 7-yard Chris McKay scoring run. The Pirates battled back with a pair of fourth-quarter TD’s by Darran Butts (4-yard run) and Jordan Wimberly (17-yard catch) but could get no closer.

McKay finished with 97 rushing yards on 8 carries and Rogers added 90 yards for the Camels. Chaney Fitzgerald caught four passes for 107 yards. Hampton had two backs run for over 100 yards as Butts tallied 124 yards and Burris had 113. Defensively, Qwahsin Townsel made a game-high 17 tackles and 1.5 TFL for the Pirates and Cornelius Davis had eight stops for the Camels.

Richmond 42, Maine 31
Box Score

True freshman quarterback Camden Coleman passed for 365 yards and six touchdowns in his first career start to lead Richmond (3-3, 2-1) past Maine (1-5, 1-3 CAA), 42-31. Five of those scoring passes came in a wild first half that featured 59 combined points. Maine sprinted out to a 14-0 advantage as Derek Robertson connected with Joe Gillette on a 73-yard TD pass before the Black Bears scored on a 24-yard double pass from Montigo Moss to Tavion Banks. The Spiders stormed back behind Coleman, who fired TD passes of 65 yards to Brooks Heagarty, 56 and 13 yards to Nick DeGennaro and 13 yards to Quanye Veney to go up 28-17. Maine pulled within 28-24 as Gillette made a 50-yard TD catch, but Coleman capped the half with an 11-yard TD pass to Landon Ellis to put UR up 35-24 at the break. The Spiders added to their margin in the third quarter on a 2-yard catch by DeGennaro.

DeGennaro finished with 8 catches for 113 yards and 3 TD’s, while Aaron Banks made 10 tackles for the Spiders’ defense. For Maine, Roberston was 18-of-25 for 315 yards and 2 TD’s, while Gillette had 8 catches for 163 yards and 3 TD’s. Tyshawn Stewart had a career-high 10 tackles for the Maine defense.

UAlbany 24, Towson 17
Box Score

Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns and provided the winning score on a 6-yard run as UAlbany (4-2, 2-0 CAA) battled past Towson (2-4, 1-2 CAA), 24-17. Poffenbarger tossed scoring passes of 12 yards to Griffin Woodell and 2 yards to MarQeese Dietz to put the Great Danes ahead 14-3 midway through the second quarter. Field goals of 28 and 37 yards from Keegan Vaughan pulled the Tigers within 14-9 at halftime and they took the lead on a 1-yard Devin Matthews TD run with 4:02 to go in the third quarter. After UAlbany tied the game at 17-17 on a John Opalko field goal, Poffenbarger ended a 56-yard drive with his TD run with 9:02 to go. Towson drove to the UA 1-yard line in the final seconds, but was stopped on a fourth-down run.

Woodell ran for a team-high 76 yards and added four catches for 54 yards. Dylan Kelly had a monster day defensively with 23 tackles and a forced fumble. For Towson, Nathan Kent was 19-of-31 passing for 217 yards, with Carter Runyon making seven grabs for 74 yards. Defensively, Dion Crews-Harris had six tackles, 1.5 TFL’s and a fumble recovery.

Villanova 37, North Carolina A&T 14
Box Score

Villanova turned in a dominant first-half performance and earned a 37-14 road victory over North Carolina A&T (1-4, 0-2 CAA). The Wildcats had 373 yards of offense and held the Aggies to 54 yards in building a commanding 30-14 halftime advantage. A&T took an early 7-3 lead on a 94-yard kickoff return by Taymon Cooke, but VU answered with a 58-yard scoring pass from Connor Watkins to Jaylen Sanchez. The Aggies went back on top, 14-13, on a 25-yard run by quarterback Kevin White. However, the Wildcats took over from there, getting a 21-yard scoring run from DeeWil Barlee, a 9-yard TD catch by Rayjoun Pringle and Matthew Mercurio’s third field goal of the half to close the half. Watkins found Sanchez on a 59-yard TD passs in the third quarter to cap the scoring.

Watkins threw for 289 yards and 3 TD’s, with Sanchez making six catches for 158 yards and 2 TD’s. Danny Abraham had seven stops for a VU defense that held A&T to 172 total yards. White threw for 64 yards and ran for 44 to pace A&T offensively. Kade Moledor recorded 11 tackles.

Rhode Island 34, Brown 30
Box Score

Kasim Hill passed for 222 yards and three touchdowns as #25 Rhode Island (4-2, 2-1 CAA) held off Brown, 34-30, to claim the Governor’s Cup for the fifth straight season. In a back-and-forth game, the Rams went on top 13-10 early in the second quarter as Hill threw scoring passes of 50 yards to Kahtero Summers and 27 yards to Marquis Buchanan. After Brown went on top 17-13, URI quickly regained the lead after a 95-yard kickoff return by Randy Jordan. The Rams trailed 27-20 in the third period, but Hill connected on a game-tying 27-yard TD toss to Darius Savedge and Ja’Den McKenzie broke loose for a 50-yard TD run to make it 34-27. Holding a four-point advantage in the final minute, URI sealed the victory when Syeed Gibbs picked off his second pass of the game at the Brown 27-yard line.

McKenzie finished with 111 yards rushing and a TD on 12 carries, which Buchanan had five receptions for 84 yards. Linebacker Evan Stewart topped the URI defense with 13 tackles, while Gibbs had a career-high nine stops and 2.0 TFL’s to go along with his two interceptions.

Delaware 43, Duquesne 17
Box Score

Delaware (4-1, 2-0 CAA) responded to a second-quarter deficit with 28 unanswered points and cruised past Duquesne, 43-17. Trailing 17-15 late in the first half, Marcus Yarns had his second 1-yard TD run of the game to put the Blue Hens ahead 22-17 at the break. UD dominated the second half as Ryan O’Connor threw touchdown passes of 57 yards to Chandler Harvin, 7 yards to Joshua Youngblood and 34 yards to Phil Lutz while the Blue Hens’ defense pitched a shutout.

O’Connor finished 28-of-40 passing for 347 yards and 4 TD’s with Jojo Bermudez making seven grabs for 83 yards and a TD. The Blue Hens’ defense held the Dukes to 290 total yards and intercepted three passes. Jackson Taylor made a team-high 13 tackles with 2.5 TFL’s.

Virginia 27, William & Mary 13
Box Score

William & Mary (4-2, 2-1 CAA) jumped out to an early 10-point lead but dropped a 27-13 decision at ACC foe Virginia. Quarterback Darius Wilson ran for a team-high 74 yards and completed 14-of-18 passes for 72 yards to pace the Tribe offensively, while All-American John Pius had a huge game on defense with eight tackles, 3.0 TFL’s, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble.

W&M went up 6-3 at the end of the first quarter following field goals of 38 and 48 yards from Caden Bonoffski. Early in the second quarter, Pius sacked UVA quarterback Tony Muskett and returned the ball 57 yards to the 4-yard line. On fourth down, Martin Lucas plunged into the end zone from the 1-yard line to put the Tribe ahead 13-3. W&M was unable to get on the board the rest of the way, coming up short on 4th-down conversions from the UVA 8 in the third quarter and the UVA 23 in the fourth quarter.

North Carolina Central 34, Elon 23
Box Score

Elon (3-3, 3-0 CAA) took an early 10-0 first-quarter lead, but North Carolina Central responded with 28 unanswered points and went to a 34-23 win in a Top 25 battle. The Phoenix got a 15-yard TD pass from Matthew Downing to Jordan Bonner and a 43-yard Jack Berkowitz field goal in the opening period. However, NCCU got a pair of scoring runs and a TD pass from quarterback Davius Richard to move on top 28-10 midway through the third quarter. The Phoenix twice rallied within 11 on a 1-yard TD run from reserve quarterback William Lankford and a 6-yard scoring toss from Justin Allen to Wayne Dixie III, but could get no closer.

Downing was 10-of-15 passing for 163 yards and a TD, while Lankford picked up a team-high 49 yards on the ground. Caleb Curtain led the Phoenix defense with seven stops.

IVY

PRINCETON, N.J. – No. 19 Harvard and Yale each won Ivy League football contests this weekend, while Penn and Columbia came out on top in their non-conference games.

Harvard pulled away in the second half against Cornell on Friday evening to win 41-23. Yale used a 69-yard connection in the fourth quarter from quarterback Nolan Grooms to receiver Ryan Lindley to defeat Dartmouth, 31-24. Of the six league games that have taken place this season, five have been decided by a single possession.

Harvard is one three remaining unbeaten teams in the FCS. The Crimson is joined by South Dakota St. and Southern Illinois.

FRIDAY, OCT. 6
#19 HARVARD 41, CORNELL 23
7 p.m. // Cambridge, Mass. // Harvard Stadium

• No. 19 Harvard (4-0, 2-0 Ivy) topped Cornell (2-2, 1-1 Ivy), 41-23, to remain unbeaten on the season. The win was Harvard head coach Tim Murphy’s 135th career league win, which ties him with former Yale head coach Carm Cozza (1965-96) for the most all-time.
• Harvard quarterback Charles DePrima accounted for six touchdowns and 361 yards of total offense. He was 12-for-19 through the air with 209 yards and three touchdowns. On just nine rushing attempts, he ran for 152 yards and three scores. Defensive back Ty Bartrum and linebacker Matt Hudson led the team with nine tackles.
• Cornell quarterback Jameson Wang was 21-for-34 through the air for 165 yards and had two rushing touchdowns.

SATURDAY, OCT. 7
#25 RHODE ISLAND 34, BROWN 30
12 p.m. // Providence, R.I. // Richard Gouse Field at Brown Stadium

• Brown (2-2, 0-1 Ivy) tested No. 25 Rhode Island (4-2, 2-1 CAA) in the 41st Governor’s Cup, but fell by a score of 34-30. Both of the Bears’ setbacks this season have come in one possession games to ranked opponents.
• The Bears had 444 yards of total offense. Receiver Wes Rockett had seven catches for 90 yards and added a rushing touchdown. Quarterback Jake Willcox was 31-for-55 passing with 272 yards.
• Defensive back Aubrey Parker posted a team-high five tackles and broke up three passes.

COLUMBIA 16, MARIST 0
12:30 p.m. // New York, N.Y. // Robert K. Kraft Field at Wein Stadium

• Columbia (2-2, 0-1 Ivy) blanked Marist (2-3, 2-1 Pioneer), 16-0, to pick up its second shutout of the season.
• The Lions defense, which ranked second in scoring defense in the FCS entering the afternoon, forced four turnovers. Defensive back Aaron Brebnor had a pair of interceptions.
• Lions running back Ty’son Edwards had 103 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 14 attempts.

PENN 42, GEORGETOWN 39 (OT)
1 p.m. // Philadelphia, Pa. // Franklin Field

• Penn (3-1, 0-1 Ivy) topped Georgetown (3-3, 1-0 Patriot), 42-39, in overtime to close out non-league play with a 3-0 record. Dating back to the 2021 season, the Quakers have won seven consecutive non-league games.
• Quakers quarterback Aidan Sayin was 24-for-33 passing with 254 yards and a touchdown. Running back Malachi Hosley rushed for a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime.
• Linebacker John Lista posted a team-high seven tackles and had an interception which he returned 24 yards to help set up a touchdown.

LAFAYETTE 12, PRINCETON 9
1 p.m. // Princeton, N.J. // Powers Field at Princeton Stadium

• Princeton (2-2, 1-0 Ivy) dropped a tightly contested game to Lafayette (5-1, 1-0 Patriot), 12-9.
• Tigers Receiver AJ Barber had a career-high 156 receiving yards on seven receptions. Quarterback Blake Stenstrom was 26-for-35 through the air for 310 yards a touchdown.
• Linebacker Ozzie Nicholas had 12 tackles, including 1.5 for a loss.

YALE 31, DARTMOUTH 24
1:30 p.m. // Hanover. N.H. // Memorial Field

• Yale (2-2, 1-1 Ivy) topped Dartmouth (2-2, 1-1 Ivy) on the road, 31-24.
• Bulldogs Quarterback Nolan Grooms connected with receiver Ryan Lindley an a 69-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter for what proved to be the difference. Grooms was 15-for-22 with a pair of touchdowns and 239 yards through the air. Lindley had seven catches for 128 yards. Defensive back Sean Guyton had two interceptions including a 70-yard pick-six.
• Dartmouth rushed for 221 yards, with quarterback Nick Howard and running back Tevita Moimoi combining for 169 yards.

 

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MEAC

#11 N.C. Central 34, #25 Elon 23

In a clash of top-25 NCAA Division I-FCS programs, No. 11 North Carolina Central amassed 14 tackles behind the line of scrimmage with eight sacks and senior quarterback Davius Richard accounted for four touchdowns to defeat No. 25 Elon University, 34-23, at Rhodes Stadium.

Entering the contest, Elon (3-3) was riding an eight-game win streak at home and the Phoenix had not allowed a touchdown inside Rhodes Stadium for 15 quarters. NCCU made five visits to the end zone to snap both streaks.

Richard rushed for a season-best 114 yards and three touchdowns, while completing 21-of-35 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown. Senior running back Latrell Collier ran for 95 yards, including a 63-yard touchdown scamper, to become the ninth Eagle in NCCU history to amass 2,000 career rushing yards (currently 2,050 yards). The dynamic duo of Richard (10) and Collier (6) have now combined for 16 rushing touchdowns this season.

Box Score | Recap

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Howard 20, Northwestern 23

Howard put together an outstanding defensive performance and the offense rode the efforts of Eden James in the second half, but in the end, the Bison fell short against Northwestern, 23-20. The Bison got off to a slow start, allowing the Wildcats to march 75 yards on six plays to take a 7-0 lead at the 11:31 mark. However, Howard’s defense stood tall all day and shut down Northwestern’s offense, coming up with several negative plays.

The Wildcats put together a 14-play drive that covered 77 yards and used 5:31 off the clock to take a 16-0 lead to the locker room.

Howard came out of the locker room and proceeded to put together a 74-yard drive that took 17 plays and used up almost 8 minutes off the clock, Reserve red-shirt freshman quarterback Ja'Shawn Scroggins capped off the drive with a one-yard plunge to make it 16-7 with 7:05 on the clock.

Box Score | Recap

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Delaware State 44, Central Connecticut State 51
Delaware State got touchdowns from six different players, but it wasn't enough as the Hornets were outscored 51-44 by Central Connecticut State on Saturday afternoon at Arute Field.

The Blue Devils improved to 2-3 on the season while the Hornets dropped to 1-5.

Marqui Adams led Delaware State's passing attack with 301 yards through the air, tossing three touchdowns and two interceptions. The signal caller also added 46 yards and one touchdown on the ground. Marquis Gillis led all Hornets rushers with 79 yards in the contest, picking up 4.6 yards per carry. Gillis also added 48 receiving yards. NyGhee Lolley reeled in four catches for 92 yards and one score. Ej Core got in on the action in the passing game as well, hauling in four balls for 85 yards and one touchdown.

Eric Montes paced the Delaware State defensive effort, totaling eight tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one sack. Team added and Aaron Angelos had in the loss.

Defensively, Delaware State did an impressive job neutralizing the Cent. Conn. St. passing attack, holding the Blue Devils to 86 yards through the air.

Box Score | Recap

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Virginia Lynchburg 6, S.C. State 56

After a 0-3 start, South Carolina State is fighting to get back to .500 before opening Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play in two weeks.

The Bulldogs took a big step toward that goal Saturday with a 56-6 victory over Virginia University-Lynchburg at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium and Willie Jeffries Field.

South Carolina State rushed for 273 yards as a team Saturday with four different players scoring rushing touchdowns. The Bulldogs were led by Jawarn Howell who had 76 yards on six carries. Nine different players had at least one carry in the victory.

The Bulldogs were dominant in all three phases (offense, defense and special teams) including getting a special teams touchdown to open the game.

Box Score | Recap

MVFC

Saturday, October 7, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 10/7/2023	Western Illinois 10	North Dakota 49	1:00 P.M.	Grand Forks, N.D. (Conf.)	TV: Midco Sports/ESPN+ Stats Radio: Home of Economy Radio Network Video
Saturday 10/7/2023	North Dakota State 38	Missouri State 10	Final	Springfield, Mo. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Murray State 7	South Dakota 38	Final	Vermillion, SD (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Southern Illinois 3	Youngstown State 31	Final	Youngstown, OH (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Northern Iowa 27	Indiana State 20	Final	Terre Haute, Ind. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	South Dakota State 40	Illinois State 21	Final	Normal, Ill. (Conf.)	Box Score

NEC

LIU defeated Sacred Heart, 23-13, to earn its first win of the season on Saturday, while Merrimack made it two league triumphs in a row with an 11-point decision against in-state rival Stonehill. Central Connecticut wrapped up its non-conference slate with a home win over Delaware State in a high-scoring affair, while Duquesne fell on the road at No. 9/10 Delaware in its final non-league contest. Saint Francis U and Wagner each had bye weeks as they prepare for a rare Thursday night matchup on CBS Sports Network, which marks the NEC's first-ever nationally televised linear game.

Click here for Boxscores / Statistics
LIU 23, SACRED HEART 13
Tight end Owen Glascoe had a hand in all three of his team’s touchdowns to lead LIU to a 23-13 home win over NEC foe Sacred Heart. Running for a pair of scores, the redshirt senior added a six-yard touchdown throw to fellow classmate and linemate Leak Bryant to pilot the Sharks to their first victory of 2023.

CCSU 51, Delaware State 44
Elijah Howard ran for one touchdown and 257 yards, the most by an NEC running back since 2018, while Ricky Ortega reached the end zone a game-best three times to lead Central Connecticut past Delaware State in a high-scoring 51-44 affair on Saturday. Ortega’s final score — a 13-yard run with 5:02 left — followed by a 34-yard field goal by Jack Barnum was the icing on the cake in a game that featured five lead changes.

MERRIMACK 45, STONEHILL 34
Merrimack held off a late Stonehill comeback bid that featured four touchdowns in the final fourth quarter to come out in top, 45-34, in a Bay State battle that aired on ESPN+ in North Andover on Saturday. The Warriors used their running game to move to 2-1 in conference play, as Tyvon Edmonds Jr. and Donovan Wadley combined for 230 yards on the ground and four rushing scores.

#9/10 Delaware 43, DUQUESNE 17
Duquesne made a statement in the first half, scoring on three of their first four drives to take two leads, but nationally-ranked Delaware ended the game on a 28-0 run to lock up a 43-17 victory in Newark on Saturday. Edward Robinson rushed for a game-high 86 yards and a touchdown for the Dukes, who concluded a grueling non-conference schedule that also featured dates at West Virginia and Coastal Carolina.

PATRIOT

NO. 12/12 HOLY CROSS CRUSADERS (4-2, 2-0 PL) 55, AT BUCKNELL BISON (1-4, 0-2 PL) 27
Christy Mathewson - Memorial Stadium/Lewisburg, Pa. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
LEWISBURG, Pa. – Crusaders’ senior running back Jordan Fuller rushed for 147 yards and four touchdowns to lead No. 12 Holy Cross to a 55-27 victory at Bucknell to improve to 2-0 in League play.
*Fuller recorded his second four-rushing touchdown performance of the season, including two in the fourth quarter, on 18 carries.
*Senior quarterback Matthew Sluka completed 19-of-26 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 15 times for 122 yards.
*Holy Cross senior wide receiver Jalen Coker caught three passes for 96 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown reception from Sluka in the first quarter.
*Crusaders’ fifth-year linebacker Jacob Dobbs finished with 12 tackles, 2.0 TFLs, one sack and a forced fumble, while junior safety Curtis Harris-Lopez added eight tackles and 2.5 TFLs.
*Senior defensive back Terrence Spence finished with one interception, two pass breakups and four tackles for Holy Cross.
*Bucknell junior quarterback Ralph Rucker completed 19-of-35 passes for 248 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, with sophomore wide receiver Derrick Anderson Jr. catching six passes for 115 yards and two scores.
*Senior running back Coleman Bennett rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries and caught seven passes for 50 yards.
*Senior linebacker Blake Leake led the Bison with 13 tackles, while senior defensive lineman Connor Carretta added three tackles, 1.5 TFLs and combined on a sack with classmate Tyler Alston.
RECAP: HOLY CROSS | BUCKNELL

AT NO. rv/rv FORDHAM RAMS (4-2, 1-1 PL) 38, LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS (1-5, 0-1 PL) 35
Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field/Bronx, N.Y. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
BRONX, N.Y. – Fordham senior placekicker Brandon Peskin connected on a 45-yard field goal with one second remaining in the game to lift the Rams to a 38-35 comeback victory over Lehigh.
*Peskin was 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts, including field goals of 42 and 45 within the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. He was also 3-for-3 on PATs.
*Fordham senior quarterback C.J. Montes completed 34-of-48 passes for 382 yards and a 14-yard touchdown pass to graduate student wide receiver MJ Wright in the fourth quarter. Wright caught a game-high 10 passes for 101 yards.
*Junior running back Julius Loughridge helped the Rams in the comeback, rushing for 170 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries.
*Fordham junior linebacker James Conway finished with a team-best 12 tackles, while sophomore linebacker Marc Pretto had seven tackles and 1.0 TFL.
*Lehigh sophomore quarterback Brayten Silbor completed 19-of-30 passes for 257 yards and three touchdown passes, including two to sophomore wide receiver Geoffrey Jamiel. Silbor also rushed for a pair of scores.
*Jamiel finished with a team-high eight receptions for 69 yards, while junior wide receiver Dylan McFadden added two receptions for 56 yards and a score.
*Freshman running back Luke Yoder rushed for 103 yards on 14 carries for the Mountain Hawks.
*Fifth-year linebacker Mike DeNucci posted a team-high 12 tackles, while first-year linebacker William Parton finished with 10 tackles, 2.0 TFLs, one sack and a forced fumble.
RECAP: LEHIGH | FORDHAM

LAFAYETTE LEOPARDS (5-1, 1-0 PL) 12, AT PRINCETON TIGERS (2-2, Ivy) 9
Princeton Stadium/Princeton, N.J. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
PRINCETON, N.J. – Senior linebacker Blamassi Meite recorded a sack in the end zone for a safety to seal Lafayette’s 12-9 victory over Princeton on a rainy afternoon at Princeton Stadium.
*Meite finished with four tackles, 1.5 sacks and a fumble recovery.
*Senior linebacker Billy Shaeffer, the reigning Patriot League Defensive Player of the Week, added 10 tackles, 3.0 TFLs, 2.0 sacks and a forced fumble to hold the Tigers scoreless for the final three quarters in their first win against Princeton since 2003.
*The Leopards defense held the Tigers to three rushing yards and recorded seven sacks.
*Sophomore quarterback Dean DeNobile completed 20-of-28 passes for 177 yards and a 15-yard touchdown pass to senior tight end Mason Gilbert. Gilbert finished with four receptions for 47 yards.
*Sophomore running back Jamar Curtis rushed 22 times for 83 yards and caught two passes for 13 yards, while sophomore wide receiver had five catches for 66 yards.
*Freshman placekicker Jack Simonetta connected on a 40-yard field goal in the first quarter and made a PAT attempt in the second quarter.
*Lafayette improved to 5-1, the program’s best start since 2009.
RECAP: LAFAYETTE

AT PENN QUAKERS (3-1, Ivy) 42, GEORGETOWN HOYAS (3-3, 1-0 PL) 39 OT
Franklin Field/Philadelphia, Pa. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
PHILADELPHIA – Graduate student running back Joshua Stakely scored a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter to help Georgetown erase a 16-point deficit, but the Hoyas fell to Penn, 42-39, at Franklin Field.
*Stakley caught two touchdown passes and rushed for a third while compiling 55 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards.
*Fifth-year quarterback Tyler Knoop completed 26-of-40 passes for 272 yards, three touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also rushed for 30 yards and a score.
*Sophomore wide receiver Jimmy Kibble caught a 65-yard touchdown pass from Knoop late in the third quarter. He finished with three catches for 82 yards.
*Hoyas’ senior linebacker David Ealey III registered 11 tackles and 1.5 TFLs, and junior defensive lineman Ibri Harrell added five tackles and 1.5 TFLs. Freshman linebacker GianCarlo Rufo recorded six tackles and one sack.
*Junior placekicker Patrick Ryan connected on a 49-yard field goal in overtime, the longest of his collegiate career.
RECAP: GEORGETOWN

 

[s--k]

PIONEER

Morehead State 31, Dayton 7

MOREHEAD, Ky. – Carter Cravens threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as Morehead State claimed a 31-7 PFL victory against Dayton Saturday at Jayne Stadium. The Eagles and Flyers traded first-quarter touchdowns, with Cravens hitting a 53-yard touchdown pass to Trevon Kleint with 9:06 remaining. Dayton responded just before the quarter ended with Luke Hansen’s six-yard touchdown run. However, those would be Dayton’s only points as Morehead State’s defense kept the Flyers off the scoreboard for the final 45:48 of the game. Meanwhile, Craven gave Morehead State the lead for good with a 26-yard touchdown strike to Ryan Upp with 4:08 remaining in the first half. James Louis tacked on a 23-yard touchdown run in the third quarter, and Cravens closed the scoring with a two-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Cravens finished the day with 291 yards on 19-of-36 passing and ran for another 32 yards. Dayton ran for 203 yards against the Eagles, with Michael Neel’s 68 yards on 18 carries leading the way.

Stetson 28, Presbyterian 24

CLINTON, S.C. – Stetson scored twice in the final 10:44 to escape with a 28-24 PFL victory against Presbyterian Saturday at Bailey Memorial Stadium. The Hatters and Blue Hose traded scoring bursts in the game. Presbyterian scored 14 points in the first quarter before Stetson scored 14 second-quarter points to tie the game 14-14 at halftime. Out of the break, the Blue Hose used Mack Mikko’s 18-yard field goal to break the tie and took a 24-14 lead with 13:42 remaining on Ty Englehart’s three-yard pass to Worth Warner. But Stetson charged down the field on its ensuing possession, scoring on a Devon Brewer two-yard run with 10:44 left. Brewer struck again with 32 seconds left, crashing into the end zone from one yard out to give Stetson a 28-24 lead. Presbyterian would get a first down on the game’s final drive, but it was their lone completion in six attempts before time ran out. Brewer finished with 98 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns to lead Stetson. Englehart paced Presbyterian with an 18-of-24 passing outing for 201 yards and two touchdowns.

St. Thomas 17, Butler 10

ST. PAUL, Minn. – Luke Herzog broke up a pass in the end zone to complete a furious goal line stand as St. Thomas held on for a 17-10 PFL victory against Butler Saturday at O’Shaughnessy Stadium. Trailing 17-10 with 1:57 remaining in the game, Butler took over on its own 25-yard line. The Bulldogs gained first downs on three of their first five plays to quickly get into the Tommies’ red zone. Two plays later, Butler quarterback Bret Bushka completed a pass to the St. Thomas 10-yard line, and a penalty pushed the ball to the five-yard line with seconds left. Butler’s Joey Suchy was stopped just shy of the goal line on first down before the Tommies stuffed a pair of Bulldogs runs. On fourth down, Bushka’s pass was broken up by Herzog, ending the game. St. Thomas running back Hope Adebayo rushed for two touchdowns as part of his 13-carry, 85-yard outing – his second score providing a 17-3 lead in the third quarter. Bushka completed 16-of-31 passes for 111 yards and ran for 63 yards on 16 carries to lead Butler.

Drake 20, Valparaiso 14

DES MOINES, Iowa – Luke Bailey threw two touchdown passes as Drake held on for a 20-14 PFL victory against Valparaiso Saturday at Drake Stadium. Bailey staked Drake to a 17-0 lead through three quarters, throwing a 57-yard touchdown pass to Mitchell January in the first quarter and finding Gage Vander Leest for a two-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter. Valparaiso’s Jeffrey Jackson came off the bench and led the Beacons’ comeback bid with two touchdown throws in the fourth quarter – a 33-yard touchdown to Solomon Davis and a 15-yard touchdown toss to Moise Tezzo. After the Tezzo score, Drake went three-and-out and Valparaiso took over on its 23-yard line. The Beacons used a penalty and a 14-yard Jeffrey Jackson run to enter Drake territory with four seconds left but could not gain any more yardage before the clock expired. Bailey led Drake with a 16-of-35 passing day for 257 yards, January catching two of those passes for 102 yards. Valparaiso was limited to 275 offensive yards.

Columbia 16, Marist 0

NEW YORK, N.Y. – Columbia’s Ty’Son Edwards ran for two touchdowns, and the Lions defense forced four turnovers to down Marist 16-0 in nonconference action Saturday at Wien Stadium. All the scoring took place in the first half, with Edwards scoring on carries on one and 22 yards. It was a rough day for both offenses, Columbia amassing 287 yards but committing three turnovers. Marist posted 237 yards and had four giveaways.


SOCON

Samford 31, Wofford 10
No. 4/5 Furman 28, The Citadel 10
Mercer 24, ETSU 6
No. 17/11 Western Carolina 52, No. 20/24 Chattanooga 50


SWAC

Saturday, October 7, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 10/7/2023	Bethune-Cookman 14	Alabama State 19	Final	Montgomery, Ala. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Grambling State 24	Alcorn State 25	Final	LORMAN (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Alabama A&M 30	Jackson State 45	Final	Mobile, Ala. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Florida A&M 26	Southern 19	Final	Baton Rouge, LA (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Mississippi Valley State 12	Prairie View A&M 31	Final	Prairie View, Texas (Conf.)	Box Score

 

[s--k]

SOUTHLAND

Saturday, October 7, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 10/7/2023	Northwestern State 13	Lamar 27	Final	Beaumont, TX (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	HCU 7	Nicholls 38	Final	Thibodaux, LA (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	Southeastern 26	UIW 33	Final	San Antonio, TX (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/7/2023	McNeese 10	Texas A&M-Commerce 41	Final	Commerce, TX (Conf.)	Box Score

UAC

#UACFOOTBALL - Comebacks and close calls were the all the rage for Week Six action around United Athletic Conference (UAC) Football as all three games on the league ledger were decided by six points or less including a pair of head-to-head match-ups.

No. 23 Central Arkansas fell behind 30-6 to Southeast Missouri headed into the fourth quarter but rallied with 32 points in the final stanza to secure the 38-33 win on "The Stripes" and extend their win streak to three games.

In the first of two UAC battles, Southern Utah got a pair of late scores to edge past Tarleton, 27-26, to claim the inaugural conference victory for the Thunderbirds. Meanwhile, in-state rival Utah Tech made a successful league debut of their own, posting a 37-31 decision over Stephen F. Austin to round out the day of competition.

UAC RESULTS | OCT. 7
#23 Central Arkansas 38, Southeast Missouri 33 | Boxscore
*Southern Utah 27, Tarleton 26 | Boxscore
*Utah Tech 37, Stephen F. Austin 31 | Boxscore

* = UAC Game
NOTE: Game stories linked to UAC winners

 

[steponaduck]

Have to slam Idaho -6 or so against montana in the kibbie on ESPN 2...
howard + harvard screams over...man harvard looked good last week.
would also check davidson, looks like they roll in that one
tennessee tech + SC State UNDER or SC State as a dog...tennessee teech played a BAD lindenwood team with a defense that gave up 500 yards each of the last three games and they could not only not score, they struggled to get first downs and they cannot complete passes. Tenn Tech is a BIG fade for me this week.

 

[s--k]

An NEC game on CBS Sports Network this Thursday! Kind of weird, hope it does well for them though, I won't be able to watch that unfortunately - maybe I'll leave my TV on so they think somebody is watching it!

I'm still kind of in recon mode from last week. A few more observations beyond what was in last week's thread:

ACU was one of the teams I was into when the season started. They have been outgained by an average of 210 ypg the last 4! (2-2 SU and ATS in those). I don't think they are that bad though, one of those games was vs FBS N Tex and the other vs Central Ark who is pretty damn good. Massey has ACU -11.5 vs N Ala this week? I don't understand that. Sagarin showing 9.19, still seems high. Have to kind of lean N Alabama at those numbers.

Albany at UNH should be a good game. One team plays D and one team does not. Got to have it game for UNH, but they have found ways to shit the bed the last two weeks vs Delaware and Towson. Not sure where I lean on that one, but a game to watch for sure!

Probably have to stop trying to bet against Miss Valley this week as they are playing Ark PB who is pretty weak themselves. Maybe Under in that one (46.5?) as neither team has much of an offense.

Austin Peay back off their bye and they have been rolling ... but man 3 TDs vs Gardner Webb? Sometimes I think bye weeks can disrupt momentum and GW isn't that bad

Can anyone believe that Bethune Cookman is 4-0 ATS in lined games with an average margin of defeat of 34 (0-4 SU obviously)!? They did only lose to Jackson St by 6 and ASU by 5 but were outgained by combined 232 in those! They are projected to be home favored over Texas Southern this week...another god awful team - their ATS record matches their SU record of 0-3-1 ATS and 0-4 SU in lined games. Who's lining up for this one!?

Brown is 4-0 ATS and guess who they play this week? Princeton, 0-4 ATS! 49.5 total on that game...

Bucknell is avg 22.75 ppg vs FCS this year compared to 10.25 through the same number of games last year. Bucknell FCS Overs are 3-1

Butler is off their lowest O yaradge of the year, 262 at St Thomas, but only outgained by 38y in the 10-17 loss. They had avearged 405 ypg vs some mixed competition coming into that one.

TV announcer kept saying "this is Cal Poly's best game of the year" - well yeah, they were only outgained by 118y and lost by 28 pts. (Port St and Davis outgained them by over 200y each). Their 303 yards of O were the first time they have topped 300 since week 1. Still bad team! Consider that Idaho essentially stopped caring late 3Q

Campbell is on a 0-3 ATS run after starting with a 3-0 ATS open. Unders 2-1 the last 3 after Overs started 3-0 in Campbell games

Central Arkansas scored 32 4Q pts in their comeback vs SEMO. The last two weeks Central Ark has only scored 6 TDs on 13 RZ trips (10 on 19 last 3 games)

Central Connecticut State Overs are 4-0. Everyone gains 400+y vs them. They did get their first cover of the year last week, because they played Delware St

I would look to jump back on the Charleston Southern fade train, but Lindenwood QB Dugger got hurt last week and would want to know his status. Charleston Southern has been outgained in every single game this year and that includes their two wins in games vs North Greenville and Kennesaw. Last week I learned how far off Massey totals are, 58.5? That is a dream Under total, it won't be close to that at open.

Very tricky game for Chattanooga this week, off that barn burner gut puncher loss to Western Carolina last week. They play .... Mercer! Mercer covered 2 in a row because they played VMI and ETSU who their D rightfully totally shut down, the Mercer O still struggles. Mercer is a very very difficult team to trust, but man this is a really tough spot for Chattanooga and a big home game for Mercer.

Colgate is off their best game of the year in every measurable category before their bye last week. Get Dartmouth at home, Dartmouth D should excell in this one. How about the Dartmouth 3rd down D? Teams only covert 21.6% against them, #2 in the nation, and that includes teams like UNH (15%) and Yale (20%). The only team better is Merrimack and that is because I think Merrimack has played some really weak offenses outside of week 1. Big game for Dartmouth here.

Columbia O has scored 56 in 4 games (30 was vs Georgetown) while their D has two home shutouts and only allowed 34 pts total on the year. Both those shutout games vs weather aided FWIW. Think you got to like Penn even though they are a little schitzo. Atleast Penn does have an offense and their D should be good, and probably will be good vs Columbia's O. Penn is off back-to-back OT games, but no time for a let down now in this important Ivy game.

I know I heard them say that Kiser was back to receive a punt for Cornell last week, but he did not play any offensive snaps. That is a big loss for them if he can't contribute to their offense as he is really their only weapon. He DNP vs Colgate and caught one punt last week, maybe they are working him back? I thought Cornell looked worse than expected on both sides of the ball vs Harvard last week, but maybe that is more credit to Harvard that negative on Cornell.

Since losing to VMI and Barton to start the year, Davidson has righted the ship vs Marist, St Andrews, and San Diego. They are looking like a road fav at Butler, I don't think I believe in Davidson being as good as their 3-0 run says they are.

Not sure I care much about Dayton this week or their opponent to comment.

Delaware has covered and gone over in every FCS game this year. Another weak team for them at home this week.

How can I bet against Delaware State this week? Damn it, they are on bye

Should be a good game to bet on St Thomas. Not sure they were really all that great last week vs Butler, but did get the cover on the closing number (push open) and I think Butler is pretty decent in that league. Now St Thomas goes to play Drake. On the year working backwards, Drake just beat Valpo by 6 as 5 pt favorite (Valpo one of worst teams in nation), Drake beat Morehead by 7 as 1.5 pt dog, lost to SDSU by 63 as 54pt dog, lost o NW (IA) at home in OT and lost to UND by 48 as 34.5 pt dog. So with that said, I hate the Drake! I've also been very suspicious of St Thomas this year, with reason. But looking like a -6.5 on Massey or a -5.76 on Sagarin for St Thomas road fav here, I can handle that.

Duquesne is home vs CCSU and we know everyone gains 400y on CCSU and all their games go Over. Duquesne is also a great Over team at 4-0 themselves. Total may be set a little higher at open than one would like, will have to see. Duquesne was just 2-4 ATS as a fav last year, did beat CCSU 30-6 as short road fav.

In their last 3 games, ETSU is completing just 30, 39 and 44 percent of their passes! They have been outgained by an average of 242.5 ypg on the year vs FCS. Just 126 TOTAL O last week vs Mercer. But this week it's vs Wofford, so not sure what to do with that.

Eastern Illinois is off a pretty strong effort and tough loss home vs UT Martin last week as they elected to go for 2 and the win in bottom OT1 and lost. Had small yardage edge vs good UTM team, although UTM was -3 TOs in that one. Here comes hard luck SEMO. Both these teams could be flat off last week, and really SEMO could just as easily be 4-1 vs 1-4 - I don't think I could genuinely say that before about any team, but if you've seen how they have lost their last 3 you know. Looks like the line is pretty big, not sure how this one goes yet.

Eastern Kentucky has only outgained one FCS team this year, but is 2-1 in those games. 3 pt loss to WCU, 3 pt win vs SEMO and a less impressive win vs N Ala than I think the score indicates. Tarleton has plenty of odd finals of their own, 1 pt win vs SELU and 1 pt loss to SUU the last two weeks. SELU outgained them by 207 and SUU outgained them by 99. Somehow they are 2-0 ATS in those if the +1.5 last week was the number. Coincidentally, EKU and TSU each had misleading finals and covers vs North Alabama.

Most agree that Eastern Washington is improved this year, but they are still 0-3 SU in their 3 toughest games of the year vs NDSU, Fresno and Idaho. Did cover and take Fresno to OT the week after Fresno beat Purdue. EWU had nice upset vs Davis (who's pretty average actually), but run D has been big problem for them. Starting QB was surprised scratch vs Idaho, unsure of status this week.

More later...

 

[s--k]

Another note on Eastern Illinois - a week after missing 3 of 5 FGs at NWSt, they were 0-3 FGs vs UT Martin

Dog in Elon games is on a 3 game run with 3 outright upsets in each (Elon over Camp, Elon over WM, NCCU over Elon). Last week broke a streak of 3 straight Unders in Elon games

FAMU game went Over for first time this year last week (scored combined 45 on a high-30s total). FAMU has outgained every opponent this season, 2-0 ATS as a dog, 0-3 ATS as a favorite

Fordham outgained Lehigh by 204y last week, but were -2 TOs and only 4 TDs on 7 RZ trips. Fordham had a ssn high 594y of O (38 first downs)! Fordham Overs are 4-1 since week 0, only miss was a 44-0 game on a weather deflated 49.5 pt total.

Last week was first Furman Under of year vs The Citadel. 4.8 ypp was lowest of ssn for Furman O and their second lowest O output Overall in yardage (345). Furman led 28-0 3Q.

3 of last 4 Georgetown games have been decided by 4 pts or less. They are off an exciting 28-24 last score win over Fordham and a DD comeback OT loss at Penn. Could be a spot they let down this week, but they are only facing Lehigh (who is off a tough loss of their own).

Grambling Overs are 4-1 this year with only miss by 5 pts. Last week still went Over a fairly low total for their games (47.5, scored combined 49 pts) - Alcorn held them to a ssn low 299 total yards.

Thanks to some late scoring last week, Hampton has covered 3 straight (all as dogs, two upset wins), the dog in Hampton games has covered 4 straight. Unders 3 of last 4, but the scores have been fairly close to the number. Hampton avg 249.2 rush O per game this year (low game 241, high game 279).

Harvard is 4-0 SU, but have only outgained their opponents by a net +42y (outgained St Thomas, Brown and Cornell by combined 150y, Holy Cross outgained them by -108). They avearge under 11 pass completions per game and run for 242 (7.08ypc).

Holy Cross had their best O game in yards (574 8.2ypp) and pts (55) vs Bucknell which they needed because they allowed their most yards in an FCS game (400) and second most pts (27). Holy Cross 3rd down conversion D is 110th in the nation (allowing 48%) - they allow 28 ppg to opponents not named Colgate.

Houston Chrisitan was held to their second lowest yardage output of the season (220y) as Nicholls outgained them 441-220 (6.4-3.2). For 3 weeks in a row, opponsing Ds have racked up 10 TFLs per game vs HCU. 3 straight Unders in their games

Howard has outgained every team this season despite being just 2-3 SU (74.25 ypg which includes two FBS opponents, but that is not counting the 320v vs Morehouse). They have outscored every opponent 2H this year by DD except for one, Hampton who came from behind to beat them after Howard led 31-14.

It probably comes as no surprised that Idaho has outgained every opponent this year by an average of 147.5, if we take out the Cal game where they just outgained them by +17 yards, Vandals are outgaining all FCS+Nevada teams by 173.6 ypg in those 5 games. The avg score is 39.4-20 in their 5 wins. In big spread games vs Lamar and Cal Poly they had taken their foot off the gas (1-1 ATS in those depending on number) - only outscored those two in the 2H by combined 28-24 margin. In their two toughest games vs Sac St and EWU they outscored those two 46-32 in the 2H combined.

Idaho State was just 3-8 ATS last year, this year they have already covered 3 going 3-2 ATS with a close non-cover vs UNI as one of the two losses (+21.5 lost by 24). However, they have also been outgained in every game except for the UNC game (which was also their only favorite role and cover). Still the improvement is very good. The lost to Montana this year 20-28 and last year 20-28, but last year they scored a bunch late to make it look closer (trailed 6-28). This year, they were in it for 4Q (score 7-7, 14-14 and just 20-21 before final Griz TD). Last year they lost to UNC 14-35, this year they beat them 35-21. Last year they lost to San Diego St 7-38, this year they only lost 28-36.

 

[s--k]

5Dimes lines courtesy of Maddux Sports

Time	Gm#	Team	Score	Opener	5Dimes
Thursday, October 12th, 2023
10/12 07:00 pm	308901 308902	Wagner St. Francis (PA)			46½ -14½

Time	Gm#	Team	Score	Opener	5Dimes
Saturday, October 14th, 2023
Time	Gm#	Team	Score	Opener	5Dimes
10/14 12:00 pm	308903 308904	San Diego Marist			-4½ 54½
10/14 12:00 pm	308905 308906	Central Conn. Duquesne			65½ 8
10/14 12:00 pm	308907 308908	Sacred Heart Yale			45½ -21½
10/14 12:00 pm	308909 308910	Georgetown Lehigh			1 47½
10/14 12:00 pm	308911 308912	Princeton Brown			7 41½
10/14 01:00 pm	308913 308914	Dartmouth Colgate			-7½ 43
10/14 01:00 pm	308915 308916	Bucknell Cornell			55½ -10½
10/14 01:00 pm	308917 308918	Howard Harvard			62½ -11½
10/14 01:00 pm	308919 308920	Davidson Butler			4 53½
10/14 01:00 pm	308921 308922	Presbyterian Dayton			50½ -7½
10/14 01:00 pm	308923 308924	Long Island Maine			46½ -7½
10/14 01:00 pm	308925 308926	Hampton Monmouth			60½ 10
10/14 01:00 pm	308927 308928	Albany New Hampshire			54½ 3
10/14 01:00 pm	308929 308930	Richmond Rhode Island			53½ 9
10/14 01:00 pm	308931 308932	Elon Villanova			47½ -4½
10/14 01:00 pm	308933 308934	Furman Samford			-4½ 59½
10/14 01:00 pm	308935 308936	VMI The Citadel			-2½ 35½
10/14 01:00 pm	308937 308938	St Thomas Drake			6 38½
10/14 01:30 pm	308939 308940	Tennessee Tech So Carolina St			39½ -7½
10/14 01:30 pm	308941 308942	Pennsylvania Columbia			36½ 1
10/14 02:00 pm	308943 308944	Youngstown State South Dakota			49 1
10/14 02:00 pm	308945 308946	Gardner Webb Austin Peay			55½ -17½
10/14 02:00 pm	308947 308948	Morehead St Valparaiso			51½ 1
10/14 02:00 pm	308949 308950	North Dakota State North Dakota			-7½ 54½
10/14 03:00 pm	308951 308952	CS Sacramento Northern Colorado			-24½ 58½
10/14 03:00 pm	308953 308954	Arkansas Pine Bluff Miss. Valley St
10/14 03:00 pm	308955 308956	So Illinois Murray St			-21½ 48½
10/14 03:00 pm	308957 308958	Texas Southern Bethune Cookman			57 7
10/14 03:00 pm	308959 308960	Alabama A&M Grambling			58½ 4
10/14 03:00 pm	308961 308962	Indiana State Illinois St			43½ 21
10/14 03:00 pm	308963 308964	Alabama St Jackson St			45½ -11½
10/14 03:00 pm	308965 308966	Northern Iowa South Dakota State			55½ 21
10/14 03:00 pm	308967 308968	Eastern Illinois SE Missouri St			48½ -13½
10/14 03:00 pm	308969 308970	N. Carolina A & T Delaware			47½ -18½
10/14 03:00 pm	308971 308972	Tarleton State Eastern Kentucky			60½ 7
10/14 03:30 pm	308973 308974	Fordham Stony Brook			-10½ 57½
10/14 03:30 pm	308975 308976	Wofford East Tennessee State			41½ -3½
10/14 04:00 pm	308977 308978	Northwestern State Nicholls State			47½ 17
10/14 04:00 pm	308979 308980	Robert Morris Bryant			51½ -10½
10/14 04:00 pm	308981 308982	Portland State Northern Arizona			65½ -2½
10/14 04:00 pm	308983 308984	Lamar SE Louisiana			47½ -12½
10/14 04:00 pm	308985 308986	North Alabama Abilene Christian			55½ -7½
10/14 04:00 pm	308987 308988	Chattanooga Mercer			53½ pk
10/14 04:00 pm	308989 308990	Lindenwood Charleston Sou			55½ 4
10/14 04:00 pm	308991 308992	Missouri St Western Illinois			-19½ 63½
10/14 05:00 pm	308993 308994	Stephen F.Austin Central Arkansas			66½ 6
10/14 05:00 pm	308995 308996	Texas A&M Commerce Incarnate Word			52½ -17½
10/14 06:00 pm	308997 308998	Eastern Washington Idaho State			-11½ 67½
10/14 06:00 pm	308999 309000	Norfolk St Tennessee St			45½ -9½
10/14 07:00 pm	309001 309002	Prairie View Houston Christian			55½ -1½
10/14 08:00 pm	309003 309004	UC Davis Weber State			-1½ 46½
10/14 08:00 pm	309005 309006	Cal Poly Montana State			61½ -38½
10/14 10:30 pm	309007 309008	Montana Idaho			52½ -8½

 

[carolinablue]

I have the Duquesne over as a play up to about 70, so hoping it doesn’t open at anything crazy. This one ends something like 41-38 I believe.

 

[carolinablue]

If HCU comes out around -1 I will probably hold my nose and take em again after they let me down last time

 

[carolinablue]

Idaho at anything less than 10 is on my short list

 

[s--k]

Illinois State is just in a different class when it comes to the top of the MVFC, they did cover last week, but SDSU outgained them 547-293. But when they play lesser teams - ILL St has outgained those teams by 197 ypg on average in their other 5 FCS games (all of which who are varied degrees of bad to average).

UIW led 24-6 HT last week then appeared to go go sleep only winning 33-26. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) they can sleepwalk all they want in that conference, all the way to the auto bid. Kind of sucks for really knowing how good they are.

Indiana State has a pulse. 2-0 ATS if you bet them while dogs vs Murray two weeks ago. Outgained Murray by +136 and were only outgained by -20 vs UNI in a 7 pt loss where UNI could just never get up by more than 10 on them. UNI was in a sandwich spot, so likely a B effort from them, but Indiana State is not dead. Check Chambers going 23-30-245-1-2 in his second game back. Was sacked 4x, but this team could surprise somebody soon.

Jackson St, not really impressive relative to the point spread the last two weeks. Did cover last week was somewhat lucky if you saw the 4Q. Only outgained A&M by 22y after being up big and putting it on cruise control. Only a 6 pt win vs lowly Bethune. Solid road win and cover at Southern. Still a good team when they care and play 4Q - best when the commit to their strong run game rather than relying on Brown at QB.

Kennesaw, see you later, you gone. FCS schedule complete

Lafayette. I fucking love Lafayette! 6-0 ATS, 4 outright upset wins. We knew Princeton D would be a challenge for them and they did struggle at times in that one. But their D is excellent - best D in the Patriot and it's not close. BYE this week, then at Holy Cross - oh boy!

Lamar on a 3 game SU win streak and 2-0 in lined games vs spread. Pretty good I suppose, pretty weak competition. I still haven't seen them play at all. Vs FCS opponents, they don't look that good in the box scores.

I have Lehigh 2-3-1 ATS with the cover last week blindsiding me at Fordham and their 17 pt loss, the push on the record, at Dartmouth is misleading. This team is net -160 on avg per game this year. They can't stop the run vs teams who are good at that and can't slow the pass vs teams who are good at that. But to their credit, their offense found something perhaps last week. They were averaging 260 ypg on O and 13.6 ppg their previous 5 games. Last week? 390y and 35 pts. Hell if I know

Lindenwood had a deep bomb off receivers finger tips and another long TD pass called back because receiver stepped out of bounds on the route, but they have shown some offensive capability this year, or so I thought. Struggled vs Tenn Tech. 23-0 with 7 coming by way of KO return. QB did get hurt 8min left in the 3Q, although backup wasn't awful. WR Caldwell is playing with an iffy ankle, he will be on a Group of 5 FBS starting lineup next year. Had them pegged as a good offensive team and equal or comparable to other below average to bad teams. Surprised the O wasn't better last week (ssn low 214y - coming in they avg 295.6 vs FCS including some pretty solid teams in SEMO, ILL ST and AP).

Long Island likes to run and is pretty good at it. Have been outgained 2 of 3 FCS games though. Lost by 11, lost by 3, won by 10 vs comparable competition. Not really sure much about them.

Maine is suddenly an Over team? After Unders come in 3-1 with the only Over hitting by .5 pt to start the year, their games have gone way way way Over the last two 56-28 and 31-42 on 40.5 and 45.5 totals! The passing game has absolutely sprung to life, avg 417 ypg passing with 78% completions after just 150.5 ypg and 55.75% completions previous 4. The D has been also surprisingly bad in those in terms of yards allowed 479 to Stony Brook and 487 to Richmond, not strong offensive units really. Maine O and D both averaging and allowing over 7 ypp in the last two.

Marist had pulled back-to-back upsets vs the likes of Valpo and Stetson, not like those are surpringsing upsets, scored 30+ in each which is good for them. Columbia and the weather in Manhatten shut them out last week. I really don't know.

I feel bad for taking a ML shot on McNeese two weeks ago vs Nicholls. They are one of the worst teams around. Consider the fact that two previously winless teams have beat them by 21 and 31 the last two weeks.

Mercer has outgained Morehead, VMI and ETSU by avg of 198. They were not close to the same level as Furman a few weeks ago being outgained by -120 as the Paladins really had their way with them. Just an average team with more potential then they've lived up to.

Merrimack seemed derailed on the season, but now have won and covered 2 straight, although they are only net +25 yards combined in those wins vs SHU and Stonehill. They avg 47 rush att per game and only complete on average 7.5 passes per game (one game they completed zero). Surprised to know that in lined games Overs are 3-2. Two of the Overs were the last two of the last three weeks with totals of 40.5 and 34.5

MVSU, the lines get inflated pretty quick. They are 1-2 ATS in lined FCS games, lost outright to two Dll teams. Their best game of the year was only beating outgained by -122 week 1 vs Central State University. Their worst is being outgained by Delta St by -354y. FAMU and PV A&M did it by 155 and 204. Avg score in lined games 35.6 to 7.3 against. Avg Total O in lined games just 213 ypg.

Missouri State was -4 TOs last week vs NDSU. The D is bad, the O still has some potential even with Pachot the backup who started last week

Monmouth was doing pretty good before they blew their lead to Campbell, faced a surprise upstart Lafayette team, likely hungover from the Campbell loss and only playing a Patriot League team and got humbled there. Bounced back and trounced Lehigh as they should've. I'm interested now to see how they handle the rest of their CAA schedule off a bye week. When they can run, they are hard to stop, but the D gives it up as well.

Montana, nice win last week for the Griz as mounting pressure from NAU loss and underwhelming wins vs some teams they were big favorites over was mounting to a boiling point. Think it speaks to UC Davis just being an average team at this point minus their best player Larison. Still, probably an above average Montana team, but that isn't want Griz fans want or expect.

Montanta St had bye last week. Buzzsaw of a team when they turn it on just right.

Morehead, upset Dayton, were upset by Drake and lost to St Thomas by 7 catching 16. It's the Pioneer League so they are all pretty weak and jury still out on really who is the best of the bunch, but Morehead is among the worst.

Morgan canceled homecoming last week after the campus shooting. BYE this week. Not sure how that all effects their status for the season, they had been a really good defensive team vs everyone excpet for the 2H vs Yale when they seemed to just have the wheels fall off finally.

Murray? Not surprising to see USD outgain them by 176 and beat them 38-7 last week. They failed to reach 300y however 2 weeks ago vs Indiana State and allowed nearly 400 in that one. Converted 5-of-18 3rd downs combined the last 2 weeks.

North Carolina Central put on an outstanding defensive game last week, one that I did not think they had in them. Elon is not a high scoring team and in terms of yards, Elon still had 364 against them which feels about average for them without me actually looking or doing the math. But it was the NCCU run D that was awesome. Sure 8 sacks and 14 TFLs certainly help the rush numbers, but Jalen Hampton for Elon was running on everyone. Not NCCU. They have outgained every team not named UCLA on their schedule. Two wins vs the CAA, which this year and overall the CAA is watered down now, but still, pretty good. Contractually bound to go to the Celebration Bowl as MEAC champ, so won't be seeing them in the playoffs.

 

[carolinablue]

Would probably take another shot with ACU if I can get em at less than a TD

 

[carolinablue]

Texas Southern on short list if I can get 8.5 or more as I’m not sure Bethune should be favored by more than a TD against anyone except maybe MVSU

 

[carolinablue]

Will probably take a shot with St Thomas if I can lay a TD or less

 

[carolinablue]

In terms of dogs, I am considering Howard GWebb EIU Commerce and A&T

 

[s--k]

Love @carolinablue posting on CTG while traveling at airport from honeymoney

 

[carolinablue]

Love @carolinablue posting on CTG while traveling at airport from honeymoney

Hey we are on a layover in SF after flying 11 hours from Fiji and she is asleep on my shoulder so no harm no foul!

 

[sleepy]

UNI always plays South Dakota St. tough

There last 16 head to head games the Jackrabbits only beat them once by 21+

and the last four have all been decided by less than 10

 

[s--k]

Some of New Hampshire's short comings can be seen in the fact that they have been outgained by -93 to Towson, -58 to Delaware and -40 to Dartmouth. And it is the execution where it matters most, in the Red Zone. Towson was 100%, 7-for-7 TDs in the RZ. Delaware scored more often from outside the RZ, only being in it twice yet still wound up with 29 pts as was Dartmouth just there twice who only scored 7 pts. But UNH on the other hand in those 3 games, the last 3, 9 TDs in 18 RZ trips. They were better vs Towson, 5-of-7, but the last one cost them the most, a FG in the top of OT1 then Towson gets a TD in bottom OT1 to win. It's a team has defensive issues. It is a team that should run more to protect and help their defense (only 14 rush att vs CMich - loss and only 14 rush att vs Delaware - loss). I don't know how to fix this team. They genuinely have some promise vs all the best on the east coast, but fail far too often for the team they have. When teams do not beat themselves with turnovers (Dartmouth), or a team is flat out undermanned (Stonehill) - if that doesn't happen that UNH has a hard time winning.

So here we are with Nicholls, are they are good team? 2-3 with 2 wins coming vs a bad McNeese and a bad HCU, but hell the entire Southland is bad so what does that make Nicholls?

Norfolk State is not all bad, at least not bad with a capital B. Beat Hampton, beat Towson and only lost to NC A&T by 2 (though trailed 12-28 in that one). Still bad, just a little better than perception might make us think they are. Lost to Dll week 1, but after that, depending on your Temple line, Norfolk is 4-0 or 3-1 ATS and in three games vs FCS are just -29 in total yardage.

North Alabama is just all over the place. Last week was first time vs EKU that they didn't challenge on the scoreboard, yet they ended the game with a +100 yardage differential, turnovers and turnovers in EKU territory notably some in the RZ killed them. And their D was soft early in that one. They held a HT lead in every game but two this season, week 0 they trailed Mercer by 3 and last week vs EKU when they were in a 22 pt hole at the break. Led at HT in two games they lost. They just can't put it all together.

NC A&T delievered their worst offensive and defensive game this year vs FCS. Villanova is superior to them no doubt, but it was even more lopsided than the 37-17 score (outgained 172-537!)

North Dakota has blownout bad teams (Drake and Western Illinois), lost pretty bad to good teams (Boise and South Dakota St) and allowed 445 and 22 pts in a 15 pt win over NAU (backdoor, but NAU was moving it all game on them). We'll see how they stack up vs another good team this week in NDSU. UND is 0-2 ATS as decent sized dogs vs teams with a winning record

Heard a lot of alarm bells last week for NDSU, which I think was big picture in terms of how they stack up vs the SDSU and Montana State's of the world. Sometimes they lose in the regular season, but they bounce back strong as they always have and dominated Missouri St last week (bad D and backup QB helps no doubt). Now the key is, can they avoid dropping another one they shouldn't?

Question a lot of people are struggling with - is Northern Arizona good? Took it to Weber who is increasingly looking worse by the week. Nearly beat Sac St on the road. Took it to Montana even if Montana is just an average team. Home loss vs Utah Tech is hard to forget (allowed 50 pts, think LIT had 2 D scores in that one though). I think they are, let's say above average if we don't want to go with good yet. The D is still inconsistent, but have had some moments. They are getting strong play on O and QB though which goes a long way in the Big Sky this year. They are +381 total yards in FCS games this year.

Northern Colorado maybe not as bad as they were to start the year. See the Weber St game before their bye week. They are getting better QB play of recent, but turnovers are a problem. After being outgained by over 300 in each of their first three games (ACU, UIW, Wazzou), they have only been outgained by 64 to Idaho St and actually were even +7 with Weber.

Northern Iowa is pretty inconsistent. Thinking is they found themselves in the weeks around Idaho State and YSU, then were in a sandwich look-ahead spot last week and didn't show well vs Indiana State. Sacks and turnovers have been much less of a problem than they were weeks 1 and 2. But the schedule, outside of YSU, has been pretty weak during that stretch. Not this game vs South Dakota State!

Northwestern State, winless, probably won't win until they face McNeese, or actually, I think even McNeese might be able to beat this team. Seriously, they are getting more competitive by the week now though. After losing the first 3 by 20-30 pts, now only losing by single digits.

Penn of back-to-back OT games where they blew a lead vs GT and where they had to come from behind to force OT vs Dartmouth who they outgained by +143y. Kind of a confounding team really, but I like them overall for some reason.

People also asking, is Portland State a good team? I think it is just that the Big Sky after the top 2 is kind of a mess right now and we don't know who the next tier is yet. Portland St plays Northern Arizona so we get the answer to two questions this week.

PV A&M? Other than blind betting against them once and blind betting on them once, I really know nothing. Apparently vs the right situation or opponent, they do run well (301 on ACU and 220 on MVSU).

Well Presbyterian was favored last week, and lost of course. What the hell is a Blue Hose anway?

Princeton a favorite fade team of 2023 and our favorite Under team in all of 2022 and 2023, that is 14 games and counting. They have outgained every team they played this year but are just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS. Seem to make a big mistake at the wrong time and not enough good things often enough sums it up pretty well. A weak offense with a decent QB who can make it happen, just not enough pieces. D will make everyone work very hard for it though. Check that two team that beat them only had 209 total yards (3.1) Bryant and 265 total yards (4.3) Lafayette.

Rhode Island is great when they play a bad defense, which has been every week so far excpet Villanova (and weather in that one). A one-dimentional team typically but did have good run O last week vs Brown, but that is Brown rush D for you. Brown kept it really close with them last week, two turnovers one early and one late (Brown's first of the year) were the difference in the 4 pt game.

After an injury to QB1 and seeing that the QB2 and QB3 weren't the answer, Richmond has turned to a Tr Fr QB and it has going very well over 600y and 68% with 8 TDS - in just two games. 3 INTs, it's a Tr Fr so things are bound to happen either way. But officially, the Richmond O is off the mat. Now the D, which was holding the team together through a rough patch, is no where to be found (allowed over 900y and 31 ppg the last two).

Good ole Bob Morris, what to make of them? Better than last year, yeah probably, but how much? O has produced just 212y last week and 221 the week prior to GW and Howard and lost those by combined score of 26-76 (outgained by total of -206).

Sac State returns from a bye. Before that an INT in the EZ prevented what felt like a sure TD and NAU win. I think they still have a solid D, but game vs NAU and Idaho makes me think twice. Kaiden Bennett at QB makes this offense still better than last year I think.

Really don't know what to make of Sacred Heart, but they are 2-3 ATS and just 1-4 SU. In their last two losses, they did outgain LUI by 71 lost by 10 and by 123 vs Wagner and lost by 7.

Samford, beating and covering (most numbers) vs bad teams (ETSU and Wofford) and losing vs good teams (WCU and Chatt) sums it up pretty well. +205 and +206 total yards vs those bad teams the last two weeks

I don't know anything about San Diego really

Poor Southeastern Lousiana - hard to believe they are 0-6. They have outgained each of their last two opponents Tarleton and UIW by 207 and 45 yards respectively, although I think UIW just kind of lost interest after being up multiple scores on them. 5 TDs in 11 RZ trips the last two weeks.

SEMO is about as tough of a luck team that I can think of. Not to be trusted with any lead in the 4Q after losing their last 3 straight with very late 4Q leads, I mean very late leads. Were outgained in each of those, sometimes significantly however. Something about this team that just can't close out games they are winning.

SFA D had been playing pretty well, even held powerful Austin Peay to just 308 total yards and 22 pts. But then Utah Tech goes for 461 and 37 pts last week and pulled what I think was the biggest spread upset of the week (ML+395 / 14.5 pts). Who is the real SFA?

South Carolina State has won their last two games by combined score of 87-16 and outgained them by a total of 635 yards! Who you ask? Oh, The Citadel and Viginia Lynchburg. Yeah, so, well, I mean they opened with Jackson St and Charlotte and Georgia Tech so maybe they deserved some layups. Now we get to see them vs a pretty comparable team in Tennessee Tech.

South Dakota would be undefeated ATS if not for the hook on a 24-0 win over St Thomas. Really nice year out of them so far. Follow up the big NDSU win with a dominating performance vs Murray State. So YSU this week. Big game for both. Each has an impressive win vs a good team, now let's see who can get #2. One thing is that USD was getting negative plays and sacks behind the LOS vs the weaker teams like St Thomas and Lamar, 11 sacks and 18 TFLs combined in those. Vs MVFC teams the last two weeks, just 4 TFLs and 0 sacks.

South Dakota State I think fair to say, they dominated last week more than the score shows. It was 20-0 end of 1Q (Ill St fumbled a punt or KO) and it was 34-14 HT. 40-21 F but +254 total yard edge. Just one hard ass tough team. No offense has topped 300y on them all year.

Southern had a 19-16 lead in the 4Q but in the end lost 19-26. Pretty decent D most of the time. I hear fans aren't happy. 2-3 overall, they think this team is better than that.

Said it before on Southern Illinois, held to 219 total yards on O but found a way to beat NIU (+3 turnovers helps), shut out in 1H vs SEMO but pulled near miracle win and then last week ... just EIGHT first downs at YSU. SIU finished with 100 total yards of offense. I mean the shock of those figures is one thing, but this is not the first time this offense has struggled this year, which listening to national media, I don't think anyone else has realized that fact. SIU converts just 23.7% of their third downs on the year, one spot better than Wofford and one spot worse that Mississippi Valley State - Wow!

Southern Utah has been involved in some weird or misleading finishes their last 3. Won on a scoop-and-score when Tarleton was trying to kill clock at the end of the game. SUU did outgain them by 99y overall. Were worse than the finals in each of the Central Ark and Western Illinois game. Still a solid team, but they produce some whacky finals as the game unfolds.

Last year's NEC winner St Francis entered their bye week on a one game winning streak, woo-hoo (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS).

St Thomas is just kind of plodding along. Beat Butler by 7, beat Dayton by 6, beat Morehead by 7. Not exactly what they are used to. Only 300 yards of O on Butler and only 223 yards on Dayton?

I don't know much about Stetson anymore. Split their two game road trip now enter bye.

Stonehill has lost all positive momentum from early season 2-1 start, lost last 3, good time for a bye.

Stony Brook was supposed to travel to Morgan last week, but it got canceled. One close loss this year, which was their only cover, otherwise, 0-5 SU.

The only FCS team that Tarleton has outgained is McNeese. North Alabama, SELU and Southern Utah all outgained them, but Tarleton managed to win 2 of those 3. Just 281.6 ypg of O and 22.3 ppg the last 3 games (SUU, SELU and SW Bap) compared to 515.5y and 52 ppg their first two (McNeese and N Ala).

Dog covers their last three for Tenn St with two outright upsets, probably didn't deserve the UT Martin cover. Failed to cover only fav role by .5 pt winning by 10 vs Ark Pin Bluff in week 2. Feels like they have come a long way since then though. Offense still isn't great or consistent however. Maybe they have a good RZ D? Probably the reason they beat GW and Kennesaw and the reason why the UT Martin game was closer than it should've been (only allowed 5 TDs on 12 trips vs those - and GW missed two FGs in a close game).

Tennessee Tech has a very poor offense, the only game all year they topped 300y was vs Kennesaw when they put up 361 and 17 pts. In their other 4 games they average 271.25 and 6.75 ppg. When they play equal-ish teams though, their D is competent.

Texas A&M Commerce had been badly outgained in every game this year, but maybe found themselves last week in 1st win and +190 yard edge ... or maybe they just found McNeese. 41-10.

Texas Southern = bad

The Citadel = bad, but getting a little more competitive than when the season started? Only outgained by 67 yards vs Furman, but Furman was up 28-0 (28-14 F). Previously they were outgained by 343, 354, 282, 281 and 261! So maybe last week was just a look-ahead spot for Furman, they got their work in and put it on cruise control from there.

Good follow-up effort by Towson off the UNH upset. Lost 14-24 vs tough Albany team, but hung in there pretty good. A fumbled KO after a FG allowed Towson to get another easy FG before HT to make it just a 5 pt game there. Towson D did well in this one, or maybe Albany isn't all that great on O?

UC Davis, just an average team without their best player and difference maker Larison at RB. Their O is still moving it pretty good (avg 432 each of last 3) but only scoring 26 ppg. D struggled to stop the Montana run.

UT Martin good team off tight OT win. Eastern Illinois really stepped up in that one to make it a game as a 2 TD dog only losing by 1. Turnovers hurt them as EIU got a short field TD but it could've been worse as two other fumbles set up EIU on short fields, but they missed FGs. UTM was -3 TO ratio overall and two weeks ago scored just 1 RZ TD on 4 trips to beat Tenn St by 10 despite a +198 yard edge. Feels like this team isn't hitting on all cylinders at the moment, or maybe they just aren't quite as good as I had believed.

Utah Tech has won outright twice this year as DD dogs, but then also could get blown out by 20 or 30 on any given week.

Valpo = bad. Trailed SW Minnesota State 10-15 at HT and only won 16-15 being outgained by -64y in that one (just 3-of-15 3rd down and 2.8ypc rush vs that team?). Drake narrow cover vs them last week in a 6 pt game. Just a bad team. Have scored 22 or less 3 of their last 4 vs the likes of Indiana Wesleyan, SW Minn and Drake. Did lose a 30-36 OT game vs Marist...

Villanova = good team. Faced a really amped up and good Albany D two weeks ago, otherwise nobody in the FCS has really challenged them. Although schedule has been light (Lehigh, Colgate, URI/weather impacted, and last week NC A&T). Outgained those 4 teams by 228.75 ypg, Albany got them for 91y and a 21 pt loss.

VMI O is nonexistanct last several games with yardages of 214 (Mercer), 216 (Wofford), 191 (NC State) and 295 (Bucknell). D has been just as bad. Things might've looked like an improved year after game 1 potentially, not now.

Wagner group takes time to field an FCS football team when not fighting in Ukraine - just seeing if you are paying attention.

Weber, really looks to be falling apart. If not for a big comeback vs Northern Colorado this team would be a 4 game slide. Northern Arizona really took it to them like few Lumberjack fans would've even thought possible. It's likely back to the drawing board for this D and ST oriented team that needs to run the ball to succeed.

Western Carolina should be a top 5 ranked team. Sure their D gives up pts and yards, but the O just keeps overcoming it. Favorite stat from last week? WCU was just 1-for-1 in the RZ with 0 TDs. Um, yeah, they scored 52, who needs RZ scoring when you average 47.5 yards on your TDs? RB Reid pulled hamstring (?) heel up in the bye week please, Furman next!

Western Illinois, bad team, but surprised O was a total no-show at UND as they usually find their way to almost 20 pts and between 250-300y of O. Just 10 pts and 206 y of O here.

William & Mary hung with UVA for a half. Their D really helped them and their D always leads the way for them, but some turnovers and sacks set them up, but in the end the offense was again their undoing as it has been just about all year long. UVA outgained them by 234y. First time W&M has been ougained this season despite the struggles.

Wofford, had a little tick of improvement, but that proved to be fleeting as Samford led 24-3 HT and probably should've won by more than the 31-10 Final. Unders are king in Wofford FCS games, 5-0!

Yale was fortunate to beat Dartmouth as big green was ready to play and put up a good fight. But Dartmouth could not over come a -4 TO ratio and even with that it was just a 7 pt game. Yale O has been uneven to start the year. Fortunatley their D and a somewhat limited Dartmouth O got them through to the win this week. Yale has been outgained in 3 of 4 games this season. This was the first game they won despite being outgained (-93).

Last but not least, YSU comes through with an impressive 31-3 upset win over then ranked #5 Southern Illinois. It could've been worse really. YSU was leading 14-0 when they scored a 2Q TD to appear to go up 21-0, but an illegal formation (4 men in backfield) brought back the TD and a play or two later they threw an INT in the EZ which SIU drove for a FG and instead of being 21-0, it was 14-3. On this day that did not matter as YSU finished with a commanding 223 TY edge and got 7 sacks while limiting SIU to just 8 FDs and 100 total yards! This is the kind of game YSU is capable of, but it is with caution because SIU has displayed some troubled offensive performances this year. YSU travels to South Dakota this week and in my opinion faces a much tougher challenge. Penguins had a situational edge last week off the UNI loss getting a top ranked team at home in a got to have it game. And they got it. Can they keep their emotions and focus up for now their third straight tough opponent in the MVFC? YSU will need their absolute best this week and really, they still left some plays out there on the field last week. I don't know if how they played last week on offense will be good enough this week as USD looks just as good on D as SIU. If YSU can couple the O from the UNI game with the D from the SIU game, now we have a serious contender in the Valley if they can do that.

 

[s--k]

I really wouldn't want to have to play either St Francis or Wagner Thursday. St Francis, yeah, they are the better team compared to Wagner, the lines are just still so high for them, 0-5 ATS. I don't have any problem going against them which I have, but with Wagner? Feel like both of Wagner's wins were flukes. Wagner is actually 2-0 in NEC while St Francis is 1-1 so pretty big game for St Francis to try and claw their way back. Glad I won't be home so there isn't any pressure to try and find something here.

 

[s--k]

Duquesne has played a pretty tough schedule and really for the 1H last week at Delaware, that was a game. Duquesne led 17-15, but trailed 17-22 HT and then Delaware took it to them in the 2H. I think this line gets bet up at open. For some reason, the CCSU line was crashing last week and when they played Brown the line surged. Judging by the last two weeks people definitely fade CCSU. I suppose I could be comfortable laying 8 if that were the open. Worry is that CCSU has shown some offense can produce at times. I would love 7 or less, but I'm certain that doesn't happen. Over trend for both these teams as mentioned, but it's a high one now.

That is a big line for Yale considering how they are playing. On the other side I suppose we see a Sacred Heart team that has scored just 10.8 ppg in their 5 typical games and 37 pts in their outlier game. Yale D is good enough to hold them back I would think. How does Yale do with really big spreads? Last year they were -21 vs Howard won 34-26, but I think they were up big and there was weather involved. Yale was -29 vs Bucknell and only won 29-9, somehow Yale lost 5 turnovers in that one, but none led to any Bucknell pts, it just kept Yale's O off the field. Two years ago Yale was -26 at Lehigh and won 34-0. If Yale plays really what would be their first complete good game, they can cover that number. I don't think I will be involved on that one though.

Georgetown at Lehigh, man. If I knew for sure that the Georgetown of the last two games was the one that shows up here, sure I like Georgetown. But that's just it, we don't know what we don't know. I'm a big doubter of Lehigh on a near-weekly basis. They did do some really good and surprising things offensively last week that caught both me and apparently Fordham off guard. This year, Georgetown has played good more often than they have not, I'd say 4 good games and 2 bad ones. Lehigh, they've played 2 good games (if you can call the Merrimack game good I guess) and I'll say 4 bad ones even though two of the games I am calling bad they covered or pushed in. Lehigh has actually won the last 3 in the series, so that will give them confidence as will their play last week. On the other hand, it should also provide GT with some motivation to go hard this week and beat a team that nobody on this roster has beaten (wow which is amazing to think that vs a team like Lehigh). And I just looked this up, there must be some voodoo going on here becasue Lehigh has won 21 of the last 22 vs them since Georgetown joined the Patriot! Can I go against that? GT may be just 3-3 however this is just their 2nd Patriot League game and they are already 1-0, again, should motivate them to bring an A game effort to try and go 2-0 in league play. Effort won't stop turnovers...GT lost 5 TOs (-4 ratio) the last two games - yikes. Lehigh HC was Yale OC last year and GT is 0-2 vs Ivy this year, although they showed pretty well in the OT loss vs Penn last week. This is a tougher call than I expected. Might let the line move and tell me if I can get GT +pts or if they move to favored by more I just walk away.

Princeton at Brown, I will 100% keep playing against Princeton. In some ways, maybe not their ssn opener at SD, but otherwise, Brown might have the weakest D that Princeton has faced over the course of the last 3. Princeton has also found themselves playing in some kind of poor weather the last 3 as well, which certainly doesn't help an already limited and struggling offense. While I have ML'd twice this year already against Princeton, I can't do it this week. Sure Brown O is the best that Princeton will play, but some of the INTs last week for Brown are warning signs, the fact they played 3 games this year without turning it over are an annomoly and I think vs a D like Princeton Brown is going to turn it over and I don't know where or when, but with a weak D that could be hard to overcome in terms of outright winning. But +7, sure, I like that. Now, I haven't rode every Princeton Under in this 14 game streak, I even tried an Over last year in their game vs Yale - came oh so close, think there was a missed xpt that would've made me push atleast. Princeton misses a lot of kicks too if you noticed - missed 2 xpts and 2 FGs this year in just 4 games. There just isn't a lot that Princeton does well. The last two years have been tough for Brown. Now Princeton was Ivy Champion caliber those years and obviously Brown was not. Last year Princeton was -22.5 and won 35-19 but as a recoccuring theme in Princeton games, Brown outgained them slightly while losing by 16. My notes say that Brown was 4-of-7 on 4th down and only scored 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips, so I assume they got down there and couldn't get it in on a few occasions or settled for FGs. That total was 54.5 by the way, and they scored 54. That was Under #5 in the current run. Two years ago Princeton was -21 at Brown and won 56-42 with Brown scoring just :07 left at the end of a 99y garbage drive. Princeton scored on their first 6 possessions in that one. The last two games Princeton games this year the Total has gotten bet up vs Columbia and Lafayette. This number is looking like just 41.5 - this could be the week that the streak is broken as Brown is going to be able to move it some, just have to cash those drives, which isn't necessarily easy. And Princeton has had good offensive gameplans and success vs Brown the last two years. They are struggling on O, but this is a good D to be going against. I think I may have to buck the 14 game streak and bet Over in this one if that is the number. Man, that is still hard for me to say that knowing how this Princeton O has struggled. For reference, no Princeton game this year would've gone over 41.5, but six would've last year.

 

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Probably like Dartmouth even though some of these lines are just a .5 or 1 pt off where I would really want to play it at open assuming 5dimes numbers are close. With Dartmouth you get D. Held Yale to 275y (5.6) when they avg 397 in their other games, Lehigh to 167y(3.6) when they avg 304 in their other games and New Hampshire to 274y (4.8) who avg 471.5 in their other games. Penn is kind of hot and cold, they did go for 394, which is their average - Dartmouth won that game though. Dartmouth makes it very hard for opponents to convert 3rd downs, they rank #2 nationally allowing just 21.6% conversions and that is against some capable offenses in UNH, Penn and Yale. Colgate is off their best game of the year far and away last time out vs Cornell. Yet not so long ago they were being held to 7 pts and 280y vs a not so good Holy Cross D and 6 pts with 257 vs a comparable or slightly worse D in Penn compared to Dartmouth's. If Dartmouth's D does their job that hopefully the Dartmouth O slowly walks away with it. This is not a great O, but I think they do seem improved from last year overall. Looking at their O output vs Yale and Lehigh a few weeks ago, if we get that this week then they should be able to beat Colgate by a couple scores.

Bucknell and Cornell not sure I have interest in. Cornell totals are 2-2 with both the Unders being close to the number in weeks 1 and 2 43 on a 45 and 44 on a 46.5. Bucknell has gone Over in every FCS game but one because their O is much better this year, but their D is still poor. At 55.5 on 5dimes, this total is 10 pts higher than the average total in both the Cornell and Bucknell games to date however, so hard to see value in it, and Cornell is not an explosive O as long as Kiser isn't playing WR for them. Cornell still has failed to beat anyone by this kind of margin the last two seasons. Consider they lost to Colgate, but then beat Yale by 2 and beat Lehigh by just 3 after Lehigh scored late. 6, 3, 4, 3, 4 - as I've said before those were their margins of victory last year and we are talking some weak teams like Bucknell. I've probably played Bucknell more than I should've this year, they are 2-2 ATS vs FCS and have scored 21-27 pts in every FCS game this year. I could lean their way in this one as well.

Harvard is proving to be quite the interesting team this year, certainly on offense this is the best Harvard O I have seen in my two+ years of following Ivy football and it is because of the dual-threat DePrima who is fast and ellusive, still not that good of a passer, but he can hit open receivers at least. Last year this game was 17-17 HT and Harvard won 41-25 going over the 54.5 pt total. Crimson had just a 376-363 TY edge failing to cover a 17.5 pt line. Slow starts have been the enemy of Howard this year. They found themselves in 2-3 TD holes at HT vs their tougher opponents in EMich and Northwestern, but they came back in the 2H of those games to only lose to EM by 10 (were within 7 at one point) and last week only lost to NW by 3. Not an O that will blow you away, but they are capable at QB usually and running the ball. Howard may be the only team with a losing record to have outgained every team on the schedule. So tend to think they can hang, or atleast can come from behind if they are down to make it closer. Howard Overs are 1-3 (although one missed by just .5 pt), Harvard Overs are a perfect 4-0 as they yield 27 ppg to their non-Pioneer League opponents. I think this is a game that could resemble Hampton vs Howard. Hampton had a big rushing edge on them 258-116 (7.6-3.0). Howard wasn't real efficient on completion % but still passed for 275y (13.75 ypc) while Hampton completed sub-50% for just 111. Harvard is likely to end this game with similar yardage stats to Hampton. The Harvard D so far isn't as good as would be expected and Hampton is a pretty good O unit, surprisingly they convert the second highest 3rd down rate in the country at 55.6%, the only team better is SDSU. Naturally it will be harder this week, but Howard's O should be able to produce. Probably like Howard +pts and Over in this one.

 

[steponaduck]

FCS Leans:
Yale -21
Harvard + Howard o62.5
Davidson -4
VMI -2.5
Sou Car State -7
Y-State +1.5
Northern Iowa +21
Tarlton + Ea. Kentucky over 60.5
UT Chat pk
Idaho State + Ea Wash over 67.5
Cal poly + Montana state over 61.5
Idaho -8

 

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I may have bias against Davidson because the season started so awfully weeks 1 and 2 and I just don't know if I should be impressed with the Marist-St Andrews-San Diego wins. On the other hand, Butler's competitive game at Montana has left a mark of respectability. Sure Montana gets disparaged and that is with reason to a point, but we are talking about a mid-pack Pioneer team vs what I know is merely an average Big Sky team. I think they competed well in that one when maybe they shouldn't have (Montana did outgain them by 137y although it was 1 pt game in the 3Q). And then like Davidson, a run of games that I am less swayed by two Dll games-Stetson-Presbyterian. So that is my prejudice on this matchup. Davidson did beat their weak opponents better than Butler did. I openly wondered if Butler could beat St Thomas last week, they did not. A lot of line movement in that one for them, or against St Thomas. Actually, Butler lines have moved quite a bit off open in their last 3 games, so somebody is buying them to outperform. Last year's Davidson team, sure they were good. Is this year's team? They will have had to drop off a bunch (which it looked earlier like they had) for something to be different vs Butler as last year was 31-0 and 2 years ago it was 49-35 for Davidson. My hunch is that Butler is better this year, I like what their staff did in year 1 last year and thought their roster had some potential in year 2. Last week (lost to St Thomas by 7) and this week is where that gets put to the test. For anyone who likes Davidson, this is one hell of a spread discount from last year's line of 23 and two years ago played here of 18.5, so there is that, seeing Davidson only -4 is a big shift.

Skipping Presbyterian - Dayton

Long Island has played surprisingly well in their step-up games. 2-0 ATS vs FBS Ohio and Baylor and 1-0 ATS vs Big South's Bryant. Then they split their NEC games so far both as favorites (outgained in both). So recent history says that LIU plays well relative to the spread when they appear to be the lesser team. Maine has come alive once their schedule lightened up. Combined 87 pts and 933 yards of O the last two weeks vs SB and Richmond. The improved O output has coincided with a bigger drop off in their D. Looking at the line, showing Maine-7.5 at home, they were -6 at home vs Stony Brook. One way to look at this number ... would LIU be a 1.5 pt dog vs SB? Sagarin thinks LIU would be a 1 pt fav over SB (35.12 - 34.13). Massey seems to think that SB would be favored by 5 or so over LIU (20.8 - 15.5). Depending on what you believe there, this is either a good number for Maine or a good number for LIU. All that means, I'm grasping at straws and really don't know on this one.

Hampton has pulled off two road upsets this year +7 at Howard and +11.5 at Richmond. 4-1 ATS on the year with the only loss being a rough one vs Norfolk St as 13.5 pt fav! They came from behind to backdoor vs Campbell last week and came from behind to beat Howard as well. They have a good O (best rush O in CAA), but the D is a little shaky at times when they play another competent offense (Richmond when they played them was not). So it seems like a team that can hang as a dog, but I would not expect the upset. Monmouth has a pretty good O and not so good of D. When the O has struggled to stay on the field or turn it over, they have lost - the 2H vs Campbell and the entire game vs Lafayette. I don't think that Hampton possesses that kind of ability on D, but the Monmouth D is suspect enough to think that Hampton can score on them. On paper both offenses should do well. Hampton has only gone Over 2 of 5, one of the misses was close and the other was a one-side game which makes Overs hard sometimes - avg total 54.9. Monmouth has gone Over in every game this year, avg total 53.8. Monmouth off a season resetting win and a bye, I'd be really surprised if they lost even though Hampton has pulled some upsets, but would rather have Hampton with the pts and would likely consider Over.

New Hampshire only -3 in a got to have it game, which is the same line as Massey and Sagarin for this game so good chance this is where it opens. Somehow voters still rank UNH in the top 25 despite the 2-3 record (0-2 vs CAA) - for now their playoff hopes are still alive based on name brand and some star power on the roster, but they need to start winning and winning now. It's not a switch though and this week's opponent is one of the tougher CAA ones this year. UNH beat a lesser Albany team by only 5 last year and Albany outgained them by 79y. Sounds similar to the Villanova - Albany games and we saw how Albany handled a good 'Nova team at home a couple weeks ago. Now this year Albany D at least, if not their O, the Albany D is very strong and very disruptive at and behind the LOS. In the CAA, Albany has the #1 rush D, #1 in sacks, #1 RZ D, #2 TFLs per game, #2 Scoring D, #4 pass eff D, #1 Total D, #2 TOP O, - all of which ranks top 5, top 10 or top 20 nationally. This is going to be very hard for UNH because they haven't been as good as they need to lately - especially RZ O, which has directly led to UNH's CAA losses (just 50% RZ TDs the last 3 games) and Albany is very good in the RZ, only allowing 9 TDs on 23 RZ trips by Albany opponents this season. Problem! If there is one good thing, the UNH OL has been good and hasn't allowed a lot of QB pressure, blocking this Albany bunch is going to be tough - at least it hasn't been a problem for UNH before. As good as the Albany D has been all year, the O isn't as good. Actually since week 0 with the 34 pts and 399 TY (5.7) and 146 RY (4.9) - that is the high water mark. Two FBS games factored in here, but in their other 5 games they avg just 291.2 ypg and 23 ppg. It's just marginally better in their FCS only games. I think my angle will be this: For all intents and purpose, this can be viewed as a home playoff game for UNH. They are off a bye to prepare for this must-win game. They have significant offensive capabilities and can also excel in the ST return game. As good as Albany is on D, they aren't as capable on O as we have seen over the course of this year. I would actually rate Towson O and Delaware O as more of a challenge for UNH vs what the Albany O fields. Might say that Albany caught Fordham and Nova off guard when playing them at home. Albany is 2-0 ATS and SU when playing at home, on the road vs FCS Albany is 0-2 ATS with two one-score wins vs Morgan and Towson. So chance they aren't as good on the road as they are at home. I'm going to take my chances with UNH -3 or less here, the total is tough to say.

 

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Would like Rhode Island, 9 is a little on the high side. Sagarin has 9, Massey only has 4.5. 4.5 is definitely too low. Not sure if Richmond is still going to go with their new-found Tr Fr QB from the last 2 weeks or the week 1 starter, but either way I am skeptical they can sustain the type of offensive explosion they had last week. Richmond D has all but vanished the last 2 games as they allowed Hampton to run for 241 (5.2) and allowed Maine to pass for 410 (73% and 15.2 ypc). While we may not know exactly what we are going to get from Richmond at this point, Rhode Island is pretty consistent assuming weather is cooperating. They did have a strong run O game last week vs Brown and we know what the URI pass game can do. Doubt I'm taking this game though as I don't want to lay the number. If Richmond from week 1-week 4 - I'd go Under. If Richmond from week 5-6 - I'd go Over. Just too uncertain what's going on with Richmond right now.

I like Villanova. They shook off the Albany upset and got right vs NC A&T and now return home. Only laying 4.5 vs Elon who did beat W&M ... but we had all seen the kind of struggles W&M was having and continue to have, so Elon really just did what everyone else did vs them except Elon was better than the weak opponents W&M was scraping by against. Then before that Elon had nice win vs Campbell, who has been discussed in some detail the last several weeks, so while I lost on Campbell there, the reasons why they lost have been documented. I'm just explaining away all the nice wins that Elon has had this year aren't I. Well, and last week NCCU just straight took it to them (had leads of 18 and 17 in the 2H before Elon scored late to make it look closer). NCCU is good, better than I had given them credit for, so probably better team won there and that line was too high anyway. I think this line is too low for Nova. Gardner Webb was -4 at home vs Elon. Campbell was -5.5 at home vs Elon. Villanova was only -3.5 at home vs URI. Elon is just an average CAA team who beat some troubled and overrated CAA teams before being brought back to reality by NCCU. Villanova I think is one of the better CAA teams even considering their Albany loss. Elon doesn't have that kind of D and Villanova should have a lot of O success and I can't see Elon keeping up with them.

I think I like Furman, but am cautious on that road favorite spot. Samford has been able to work some things out perhaps vs a couple of bad teams, but their D is still very bad, just see what ETSU did vs them. ETSU has avg'd 199.6 ypg and just 4 ppg in their other D1 FCS games vs Jax St, AP and Mercer. Vs Samfor that ETSU team put up 342y and 28 pts! That is an illustration of how bad the Samford D has been. Furman has been I'd say good to very good, but short of great so far this year if I'm being a little critical. Their most impressive game is they did take it to Mercer real good and they pulled up early 28-0 vs Citadel allowing that game to be closer than it should've been. Their last road game was Kennesaw and Furman had a hard time getting much of a lead on them. Kennesaw likely cared a lot back then, much more than they do now, so I'm not viewing it as Kennesaw now. Just at the time, it was a tough game, but Furman still should've been able to pull away from them and keep them down and they did not. So this road fav spot vs a Samford team that possesses a very good QB still and a capable pass game does have me just a bit concerned about laying it. Furman has not played a good offense pretty much all year...Citadel, Mercer, Kennesaw, Tenn Tech - those are all very poor offensive teams. I don't think I want to compare South Carolina to a good FCS O, but that is the only good O Furman has played so I feel like I can't know how Furman will handle the Samford O this week. I lean them, but I probably don't be the 4.5.

VMI at The Citadel - woo-hoo, road fav spot for VMI! This is must watch TV eh? A few weeks ago I could've liked VMI as I was still interested in what type of improvement they could show, then they just kept showing no improvement, actually regression. Off bye, maybe I'd assume they get a good game plan and maybe produce like they did in the season opener in terms of offensive productions (yards not pts). The Citadel I'm sure think they can win this game which is something I doubt they honestly believed lately. So they probably bring an A game too, whatever that looks like. Have to pass on this one.

St Thomas and Drake, well, St Thomas continues to kind of be a head scratcher, obviously at this point it is just a down year for them on offense, but the D is still pretty good. Morehead did pass it on them pretty good and managed to score quite a bit which could be a little concerning (Morehead led 7-0 HT). Drake doesn't have much to offer. Was thinking Under then saw the 38.5 pt total and that is a little too low to start with. St Thomas should win and I probably put something on them, but I can't say I'd be surprised if it is somehow a 4 pt game or something.

Tenn Tech closed as a 3.5 pt road fav at Lindenwood and now they are catching 7.5 on the road vs South Carolina State? That is interesting to me. They should not have been road fav last week but line moved there. SC State was only a 5.5 pt home fav vs Citadel and now 7.5 vs arguably a better bad team this week (at least Tenn Tech puts up a fight on D). Tenn Tech started a new QB last week who they thought showed some promise and that didn't work either. In 5 games Tenn Tech has scored just 4 offensive TDs! Hard to back a team like that and SC State D is better than their O regardless of what their last two games might say. Under would be the best way to play this game.

Back to the Ivies, Columbia has played in some bad weather games which does hurt their output on O, but actually, I think their 30pt 400y game vs Georgetown was in weather too. A total of 10 pts and 207.6 ypg in their other 3 non-Georgetown games. Even vs GT they only completed 42% of their passes. This is an O that struggled for most of 2022 and it hasn't gotten any better this year for sure. The D is pretty solid as most Ivy Ds are (or is it just sub-par Ivy Os and weak out of conference competition). Penn had 2 comfortable wins to open the season vs bad Patriot League teams and then split two OT games. Just had to squeak out a win in OT vs GT who Columbia shutout 30-0. Go figure! Last year Penn led just 3-0 in what appeared like a pretty even game, but back-to-back Columbia turnovers allowed Penn to get up 17-0 and it was 24-0 HT, 34-14 F. Partially due to the TOs Columbia did outgain them 428-399 (7.4-5.0). Penn was 7pt HF. Two years ago Columbia beat a bad Penn team 23-14 as a 2.5 pt HF. Penn games have gone Over the last 3 and the last two they combined for 30 and 33 pts in the 1H alone. Columbia O might get on track a little bit in this one, but I think the Penn O and QB is superior. Even if they get down, I think the Penn O is good enough to comeback if need be. I don't think the same for Columbia's O. I think Penn flips to favored after open. Not sure it matters for all that much, but Penn was bet up to -16.5 at home vs GT last week. I don't remember the line move, but Columbia was only -6.5 vs GT week 2, think it was bet down to that.

Huge game in MVFC pecking order this week when YSU goes to South Dakota. South Dakota had the most impressive win of week 5 and one of the most impressive on the year at NDSU. But last week YSU just dominated the #5 Southern Illinois team that most had thought pretty highly of. I think YSU is a better team that USD. USD is good at what they do, but their O doesn't have much firepower so I doubt the YSU D gets exposed like it did vs UNI. YSU in my eye, has the better O, better QB, better skill. The Ds are probably even I'd say. So we have USD-1 ... and even game! Situationally I worry about YSU playing their third straight tough MVFC game while USD got a layup last week off the NDSU win. Tough one really. Would like for YSU to be getting a couple pts here on the road like they were at UNI. The UNI game was the only road game vs equal competition this year we've seen the Penguins and they had some mental lapses that really hurt them. Hopefully that losing experience in one dome helps them in this one. YSU can win, no guess on how the line moves. Last week I believe YSU went from +6 to +4.5 and I think their UNI line moved towards them as well so if memory serves correct on that, people have been betting YSU in the MVFC games.

That Austin Peay line is just too high at 17.5. GW's good RB Narri Gaither DNP vs Robert Morris last week. He is said to be playing this week. The win vs Robert Morris out of their bye week doesn't look good at 31-16, but they were up 21-0 end of 1Q and 28-3 HT so they must've lost their interest I must assume as it started well for them. IT has been kind of a weird year. They competed better than expected at App St, beat Elon as I expected. Then lost to Tenn State for a few reasons and had a really bad showing vs ECU. Bye week - RM and here we are. Turnovers have hurt them. They lost 3 last week. Lost 5 vs ECU, 2 vs Elon and 3 vs App St. The only game they didn't turn it over was TSU. So that is a concern. Austin Peay beat up on some overmatched teams in Lindenwood and ETSU beating them by 115-10 margin with combined 1302 yards in just those two games! I'm not going to evaluate their game vs Tenn Vols, but vs SFA, they only won 22-20 and were outgained slightly in that one 308-324. SIU was week 1 so hard to take much from that now. What I do take from their recent games is they feast on weak bad teams, but vs a comparable team in SFA they were pretty average. Gardner Webb may not be quite the team they were last year, the D is their strength and the O is still good enough - last year's backup is starter now and he's doing ok, but they are down from last year at QB. This line is implying that GW is a bad team. I expect this line to close below 2 TDs.

NDSU at UND! Line seems low at 7.5 but that is what both Massey and Sagarin have it at. Last time here in 2021 NDSU was -13.5 and that was just a 16-10 game (UND slightly outgained them). NDSU has won the last 5. Gap between 2015 and 2003. '03 was last time UND won. Avg score the last 5 32.8 - 12. The 16-10 game was the closest. The other four were decided by 24.5 ppg. But UND hasn't been consistenly good through the years. UND beats bad teams bad. Struggles to get the O going and the D can't get a lot of stops vs the good teams (Boise and SDSU outgained them by 200y each in 24 and 21 pt wins). They say that USD put out a blueprint on how to beat NDSU, but you have to have some D to get stops and force FGs in that scenario and I'm not sure UND can do that. Suppose I can see UND in this game for a bit, but if I had to bet it I would take NDSU.

A lot of pts for Sac St to give to No Colorado. I don't see much here.

I would probably like Southern Illinois to rebound off a humbling loss this week at Murray State as their O should get back on track (had 407y 2 weeks ago vs Missouri State) and the D has been pretty good most every game. SIU did go on a 4 game losing streak after starting 5-2 last year, but the losses were all vs quality teams - which Murray State is not. Indiana State outgained Murray last time here by 136y. Murray avg just 270ypg the last 2 weeks while allowing 426 ypg. This is the weakest team SIU has played this year as they've faced a tough schedule.

So just how good is Illinois State? Like second tier MVFC good or just mid-pack good? All they have done is beat bad teams, lost to an improved EIU team and then didn't show especially well even though they covered last week vs SDSU. Indiana State fits the bad category and Ill St takes care of those teams 2-1 ATS, didn't cover the closing number vs W ILL as they had to pull away late to even cover the opening number there, but outgained them by 261y none-the-less. Indiana State was better than Murray 2 weeks ago but failed to get the win or the cover on the close in that one. Figured UNI could be in a flat spot last week - or are there some postitives to take for Ind St in that close loss? Since their bye week with Chambers at QB Indiana State has averaged 367.5 ypg and 24 ppg compared to pre-bye with backup QBs 192 ypg and just 7 ppg on average in their first 3. And the D has seen similar improvement form allowing 440.3 ypg and 37.6 ppg to 309.5 ypg and 28.5 ppg. There were two FBS schools in those first three so it may be skewed some, but still, it's far from the same team. Illinois State only won by 6 last year and Indiana State won by 5 in 2021. Only once in the last 8 games has this game been decided by more than 11 pts and that was 2019 a 21 pt game. Only 2010 and 2013 have been by more than that. The danger here in backing Indiana State is if the UNI game was more about UNI just putting up a B game effort rather than some improved play from the Sycamores. The more I look at the Illinois State wins and covers, the only team that they really just dominated start to finish was Dayton. They only led W ILL 13-9 HT and it was 20-15 early 4Q. Lindenwood was just 20-14 HT and 27-17 mid 3Q. Got a feeling on this one here, I'm thinking Indiana State is in this game the whole way, maybe upset?

 

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Here is the Phil Steele / nc sports updated FCS logs for this week. Beware there are several errors. One of which is the Bethune Cookman - Miami Fl line being just 21.5 which they have as a noncover, when really that line was in the 50s which makes Bethune 4-0 ATS.

As Carolinablue said, I may have to take Texas Southern just on principle as seeing Bethune as a 7 pt favorite is pretty funny. Worst 4-0 ATS team ever.

Other errors I saw was they did not fix the CCSU opponents, which I told them about so I'm not telling them what else they have wrong at this point. They have the Hampton - Howard score wrong on both and have both their SU record wrong. I'm sure there are others, so just be cautious when referencing it.

 

[s--k]

I might like Jackson St home vs Alabama St, although I did get scared last week seeing them nearly give that cover away vs A&M. ASU upset Southern, lost to Miles, lost to FAMU by 13, beat Alcorn in OT and beat Bethune by just 4 last week but did have their best yardage differential of the year +114. Vs who they have played it does look like their run D is pretty decent so that will be interesting to see if they can slow the Jackson St run, I kind of doubt they can. I wouldn't think that ASU has a better DL or front 7 than Southern and Jackson St ran for 270 (7.1) on Southern. There really is no comparison to last year's JSU teams to this year so I hesitate to even look at previous games. JSU only won 26-12 last year on the road, but did out gain them by 248y as a 21 pt favorite. JSU did benefit from a lot of turnovers gained last week in building their big lead so they weren't as dominant as the 38-7 3Q lead made it seem like. It's definitely not a great Jackson St team, just 3-2 ATS vs other HBCUs (with a close .5 cover vs Southern winning by 7 on a 6.5 pt line) but at their best still head and shoulders above the rest of the SWAC not in Tallahassee and I might put something on them here.

Appreciate the tip from Sleepy in post #20 on Northern Iowa - South Dakota State series score margin. UNI has a reputation of giving their best vs the best they play, so I don't think we should hold last week Ind St game against them. The YSU game illustrates the type of passing game Theo Day and those receivers can have when they click. UNI has actually won the last FOUR games in Brookings vs SDSU! And SDSU has certainly elevated ther programe the last few years, but those were all 8-11 win Jackrabbit teams that UNI beat. Last time in 2021 UNI ended just 6-6 while SDSU finished 11-4 losing in the semifinals. UNI has beaten them on homecoming, otherwise known as Hobo Day, in 2021, 2017 and 2015. SDSU is only 5-5 their last 10 homecoming games! Not sure if this line stays at 21 pts. Some of us were takers on UND at SDSU a few weeks back and that number was 18.5, now hindsight, that line was too low, but just on the surface, UNI should not be dogged more than UND vs the same team on the road. UNI should matchup better vs SDSU than UND did or could. One must hope the UNI OL has gelled more to this point. It's a lot of pts. That's what I said last week with ILL St. It now appears I have fallen in a rut of being against SDSU for 3 straight weeks if I take UNI, not a comfortable or desirable position, 1-1 ATS the last two although not sure Ill St really deserved the cover last week. This is the toughest MVFC game for SDSU so far this year, and like UND, we do have some evidence that UNI will give them a game. That did not prove to be the case vs UND, but if this line is truly higher and UNI is better than UND, we could have a competitive game in this one.

I really do not think I can play either Eastern Illinois at SEMO. Part of this thing is situational and I hate the situation spot for both teams. EIU off really hard fought loss vs UT Martin. EIU had a FG blk'd at the end of regulation that would've won it, failed on a 2pt they didn't have to try in OT and lost. The ugly details of SEMO's 3 game losing streak have been documented - last week they led 30-6 entering the 4Q and lost 33-38! In normal situations I would like SEMO. I was surprsied and impressed that EIU played as well as they did vs UTM last week. I think they are or can be a solid team, but vs the better teams I didn't think they would compete as well becasue they've been pretty up and down even vs the average and bad teams. But stepped up last week so credit to them. Not sure they are actually that team or if it was a one-off type effort. SEMO, other than the late game losses, are superior to them. Sure they lost the games and that is all that matters at the end of the day, but they shut out SIU in the 1H and were up by 12 on them in the 4Q. They led EKU 17-0 and by 14 in the 4Q and they led UCA 30-6. It takes a good team to do those things vs those quality of teams. Eastern Illinois would lose to all those teams and not just at the end. But given how things have unfolded I can't really back SEMO here and am unsure what EIU brings in this game too.

North Carolina A&T had been searching for offense and they thought they found it with Tr Fr QB Kevin White. He played pretty well vs Norfolk St, but when the competition got tougher last week vs Villanova, he played like a Tr Fr (8-of-17 just 64y 0-0 ratio and his running was less impactful than it was vs Norfolk). Lots of 3-and-outs. So A&T is still a struggling offensive team and their normally solid D got shredded for 537y (7.2) and 37 pts. Delaware has the best overall record in the CAA and is one of three unbeaten teams in the league, they have shown to be stronger than I had expected. The schedule has been fairly light. Credit to them for coming back from 18 down at home vs UNH. Otherwise they have wins vs Duquesne and St Francis and Stony Brook, so not a great resume overall, not tested or challenged very often. Not sure I have anything here.

Like EKU to win, may like them to cover. Tarleton was a weak 3-0 team and we saw 2 weeks ago the win to get them to 4-0 was weak. The manner in which they lost to Southern Utah may've been a fluke, but I don't think they are better than SUU either anyway so the right team won there. Their passing game is only hitting 42 and 39 percent the last two weeks. Their 3rd down O is pretty inconsitent as well ... just 27% since week 1. Their last 3 FCS opponents have outgained them by a total of 394 yards! They are running the ball ok, not great. And their D has allowed the last three FCS opponents 461.6 ypg. So there are my feelings on Tarleton State. EKU, love Parker McKinney at QB, like the EKU O, not in love with their D, tough to rely on them to get stops. They did get some stops vs North Alabama (turnovers). EKU D is yielding 511 ypg vs FCS - yikes that is worse than Tarleton! WCU-SEMO and N Ala are pretty good teams in my mind though compared to who Tarleton is playing. Steponaduck is liking the Over in this one, that is a good recommendation. I can handle laying 7 with EKU as well.

Going to have to leave it there for today.

 

[carolinablue]

Watching Wagner vs St Francis and it is actually a pretty entertaining game even though only 7-0 in the 2nd quarter

 

[carolinablue]

St Francis looks like the more talented team for sure but no way would I have felt comfortable laying more than a score with em. They have outplayed Wagner across the board but haven’t been able to finish or take advantage of opportunities.

With that said, it feels like Wagner will need some sort of luck or busted coverage to put points on the board, as their offense has been pretty weak so far, so glad I laid off.

 

[s--k]

I recorded and watched 1H last night before I fell asleep. The presentation I thought was funny “NEC football on CBS” like it’s going to be an on going thing - tune in here this season for NEC football! I think it is just a two-game package. I hadn’t seen Kevin Gilbride in quite a while and didn’t know he was in media. Bovada live left some totals in the mid-to-upper 40s for quite a while in that first half, after the missed FGs and everything. Saw that DK had live action on it as well so I assume others did. Need more live FCS

 

[s--k]

Maybe I was the last one to know, but the Fordham D is an issue. Last week they let Lehigh score 24.4 pts and gain 130 yard over their average! While Georgetown simply hit their scoring avg vs them, they allowed them to gain 80y beyond their ssn avg in the process. I do remember Wagner moving it on them week 2, but not scoring and looking now, Wagner gained 432 on them ... they avg 268 ypg in their 3 FCS games! Ok, so Fordham has a poor defense. The offense usually does it's part though. They either scored or got into scoring position last week on 9 of their 10 possessions (scored on 7 of 10 - missed FG and SOD were two empty drives). Turnovers are not a problem, only 4 lost all year and Montes has an amazing 17-0 TD-INT ratio (had an 0-3 ratio in limited 7 games 2021-22 at New Mexico). In two of their three road games (Albany and Georgetown), the O was not sharp - Albany was week 0 with a lot of new so maybe give them a pass. The struggles at Georgetown are alarming. They did however have a great offensive game at Buffalo. Stony Brook had an unexpected bye after Morgan canceled last week. SB has been outgained in every game this year, but it is imporving - after being -190.6 ypg in their first 3 (Del, URI, ArkSt) they are only -45 ypg their last two (Rich and Maine). Maine out of nowhere threw for 425y, 14.6 ypc and 83% on them! But the SB O got going after a very bad 1Q (trailed 0-28) 2Q-4Q SB O got going and ended with 479y and 28 pts which were both ssn highs for them QB Case had his best game as well. The Fordham D has been bad the last two weeks and it would seem they are just not good on that side of the ball, their shutout vs Stonehill was in very poor weather and that is a total outlier game. SB looks to be improving and Over seems possible here. SB FCS Overs are 3-1 although one was a weather impacted Over 33.5 with 39 pts. Overs are 4-2 in Fordham games with week 0 at Albany one miss and the 44-0 weather game on a 49.5 pt total the other miss. The worry would be that SB knows they have some weakness in their secondary and facing the good Fordham O, they try and possess the ball more leaning on their run to try and limit Fordham. That is the only way I see it Under.

Wofford at ETSU is a rough one. I really don't want to get into that.

Northwestern State had a football player get shot and have canceled their game with Nicholls.

Been a bit of a Bryant fan this year, which has only really worked out well once. I like Bryant as a dog and not a favorite, which they are home fav here vs Robert Morris. Their last two games were weather impacted and they avg just 21 ppg and 242 ypg. In their 3 games to start the year they only avg 20 pts, but 414ypg. The D is kind of iffy, when an opponent is good at something vs them, Bryant isn't likely to stop or slow it. They had 2 totals lined in the 60s to start the year, both went Under. Since then with lower totals they've had Overs 2 of last 3 going Over a 52.5 vs Brown and vs URI Over 57 which shot up after open. Robert Morris was probably feeling pretty good after their win vs St Francis where they really played well, likely the best game they've played vs any FCS team since 2021. They had some moments vs YSU, found a way to cover that one, beat up on Virginia Lynchburg. Then the last two games have gone very poorly for them with a blowout home loss to Howard as over a TD HD and then were getting blown out before GW let up so they covered the 3 TD line on the road there. So I would say their growth has been stunted. Bryant beat them 35-6 in last year's ssn finale with a big yardage edge. Bryant's O is better than the last two games have shown, I would expect something similiar offensively to their game vs Brown. Still the only game they've won by any margin was LIU which was 11 pts, but LIU ran it on them really well and was -3 TOs so that game in theory could've been even closer...Bryant only outgained them by 3 yards. I just can't trust them to win by DDs and Robert Morris with a bye on deck off two disappointing games is likely to bring a good effort.

Portland State at Northern Arizona could be a really good game - NAU is 2-1 in the Big Sky. They dominated Weber by more than the score suggests last week, shoulda coulda woulda almost beat Sac State, shocked Montana... this is their first favorite spot since the Utah Tech game and they trailed that one 15-50 and lost 36-50 (-5 TOs). Two of those turnovers were on dual threat Cal transfer QB Kai Millner and directly led to 14 Utah Tech 1H pts. They switched to Fr Adam Damante who is not a runner and has just a 6-5 ratio, but is more accurate and while the stats don't necessarily suggest it, Damante has been a big reason why NAU has won 2 of their last 3 and really were just off from being on a 3 game run had they pulled that Sac St upset that was so close. NAU has outgained it's FCS foes by a total of 381 yards this year, the only game they were outgained was just by 3 yards at North Dakota. The D has played pretty good in Big Sky play also. Portland St probably competed about as well as they could've with Montana State. MSU ran for 313 (10.4) on them, but that is almost to be expected. Losing 22-38 is ok for them I'd say. Before that it's a bunch of I don't know. They annihilated Cal Poly and an NAIA team, then had a good and bad showing vs FBS weeks 1 and 2. In a game that could be close against a NAU team we know is hot right now, it's hard to say what Portland St is going to be here. NAU was down last year and lost by 8 at Portland St as 2.5 pt dog. I lean NAU - it feel like these teams are pretty similar so I guess the -2.5 at home line is right? The number will probably tick up after open simply because some of the momentum NAU has had recently vs three playoff teams from last year - it's a pretty good run.

Lamar is on their first 3 game winning streak since 2018 and what do they get? Dogged by DD at 0-6 SELU! Lamar's wins have come vs 0-7 Dll Lincoln, 2-4 HCU and 0-5 NW State. The HCU game was close. Speaking of close, last time here SELU lost by 1 (missed xpt) and had a 410-203 yardage edge on Tarleton. SELU acutally outgained UIW last week as well in the 7 pt loss, but I think some of that occured after UIW was up comfortably. This has to be a win by SELU, but can we expect them to do so by more than 12.5. I tend to say yes. What is the mentality, what is the fight for a team that is 0-6, who was a playoff team a year ago and expects to compete for conference championships, at this point in the year - what is the level of care? I do worry about that. Obviously they cared a lot still when they played here two weeks ago. If we get that same effort this week, assuming Lamar is still a pretty week team, I can see a nice win for SELU.

Will try and look through the last 12 later today or tonight

 

[carolinablue]

Here is my updated list of potentials....Feel free to chime in with any soundbites you think I may be missing...

• St Thomas if 6 or less
• Tx Southern if +7 or more
• Bryant if -10.5 or less
• GWebb if +17.5 or more
• A&T if +17.5 or more
• Commerce if +17.5 or more
• Nova if -6 or less

 

[carolinablue]

Here is my updated list of potentials....Feel free to chime in with any soundbites you think I may be missing...

• St Thomas if 6 or less
• Tx Southern if +7 or more
• Bryant if -10.5 or less
• GWebb if +17.5 or more
• A&T if +17.5 or more
• Commerce if +17.5 or more
• Nova if -6 or less

Just read this with GWebb vs APeay. May be enough to keep me off of it...

No FCS team has lost more fumbles than the Runnin’ Bulldogs with 10, and they’re minus-7 in turnover margin.

The APSU Govs rank 18th in the FCS and third in the UAC with six interceptions despite not intercepting a pass in the season’s first two games. Austin Peay State University also ranks 22nd in the FCS and third in the UAC in turnovers gained this season.

 

[carolinablue]

Idaho is one that was right on the border, but I am thinking I may be a little late to the party on that one as the line will probably be too high for me to consider it (hoping for less than a TD)

 

[s--k]

Just read this with GWebb vs APeay. May be enough to keep me off of it...

No FCS team has lost more fumbles than the Runnin’ Bulldogs with 10, and they’re minus-7 in turnover margin.

The APSU Govs rank 18th in the FCS and third in the UAC with six interceptions despite not intercepting a pass in the season’s first two games. Austin Peay State University also ranks 22nd in the FCS and third in the UAC in turnovers gained this season.

5 of GW’s fumbles were in the rain and wind ECU game, although ECU didn’t lose any there. They actually fumbled a total of 8 times and lost 5. But still, yes, it’s been an issue

 

[s--k]

@carolinablue what do you think with NC AT?

 

[carolinablue]

@carolinablue what do you think with NC AT?

When I look at big spreads like this I dig into the dog to make sure they don't make stupid mistakes that result in short fields and easy scores and A&T is one of the better coached teams in terms of having very few penalties and they also don't turn the ball over, so those are two keys for me. Also, they have had some success running the ball, so I take that into account in terms of limiting possessions and shortening the game. If I can get 18.5 or more will most likely be a play, as Delaware is definitely the better team, but I could see A&T hanging around and keeping it within a couple scores throughout.

 

[s--k]

When I look at big spreads like this I dig into the dog to make sure they don't make stupid mistakes that result in short fields and easy scores and A&T is one of the better coached teams in terms of having very few penalties and they also don't turn the ball over, so those are two keys for me. Also, they have had some success running the ball, so I take that into account in terms of limiting possessions and shortening the game. If I can get 18.5 or more will most likely be a play, as Delaware is definitely the better team, but I could see A&T hanging around and keeping it within a couple scores throughout.

Taymon Cooke. 2 KO return TDs this year. They have yet to figure out how to work him into the offense though. I do think they are going to play with good effort this week after a rather humbling loss at home last week. I am concerned their O still lags too much though. I think they ran just 15 plays in the 1H last week! But hope they hang in there for you, I expect a better performance from their D at least.

 

[s--k]

Idaho is one that was right on the border, but I am thinking I may be a little late to the party on that one as the line will probably be too high for me to consider it (hoping for less than a TD)

Yeah and it's only going to go up from here

 

[s--k]

The Abilene Christian line of 7.5 on 5dimes is looking closer to where I would think it would be after Sagarin showed like 9.5 and Massey had 11.5. I still kind of like North Alabama though. They've been in every game this year except for the EKU one last time out. Got in a hole, tried climbing back and they kept getting into EKU territory and sometimes into the RZ, but they would turn it over. Played some pretty tough teams, EKU is good on O. UT Martin is tough. They led UT Martin 21-10. It was 21-23 in the 4Q when UTM ripped off two big runs for the margin and cover. Had a layup vs Tenn Tech. Led Tarleton 14-0, 28-14 and 28-17 HT. Led 31-24 in the 3Q then some weird stuff happened. Led 21-0 on Chattanooga before failing behind 21-27 then went on to win 41-27. Kept it tight with Mercer week 0. Playing consistent for 4Q has been a problem, but I don't really think they have played a bad game this year all things considered (more bad than good actually vs EKU). Blew two covers vs Tarleton and UTM in the 4th Q. ACU losing like they did vs UNT and UCA is fine, they didn't show very well, but wouldn't have expected them to. I was disappointed in how they played vs UIW, and chance that UIW was better on D than I was thinking they were and maybe ACU wasn't as good on D as I had hoped. The Prairie View game was weird. UIW and PV outgained them by 197 and 142! Guess maybe I just lost touch with ACU, I was high on them to start the year and then I haven't been on or against them in some time now. Run D has been a problem at times for UNA, although ACU hasn't run it that well (3.7 ypc vs UIW and 3.6 ypc vs PV) and ACU is only completing 49.6% of their passes the last 3 games. Feel like I have more familiarity with UNA and their coaching staff has been getting them to play well in spots - just need to get better at the full 60 minutes. Not sure ACU is really better?

Chattanooga at Mercer is really interesting game because of the spot for Chattanooga. They played that barn burner last week. Went for 2 and the lead with :53 left only to watch WCU go right down the field and nail the walk-off FG. That had to be one emotional roller coaster of a game and to lose it could be hard to bounce back from. I just can't escape Mercer games it seems. It's like they keep calling me. They're off back-to-back covers vs weak teams with big total yardage advantages. But before that, they have been uninspiring. Play some good D, but not as good as it should be. Have some O, but don't utilize it very well. I personally would not take Chattanooga in this spot off that game. Hate the line so I can't take Mercer either. Chattanooga goes to like -3 I could take a stab on Mercer but it is solely because of the situation. Last time Mocs were on the road that too was a tough situation for them, in a Samford - Western Carolina sandwich at Wofford and they played their worst game of the year offensively. Chattanooga got them by 20 last year as a short HF (Mercer -6 TOs). Before that Mercer had won 2 in a row and 4 of the last 5.

Lindenwood QB Dugger got hurt last week. I can find no official confirmation, but the game notes has Carter Davis starting and Cooper Justice #2 so that has to be very bad news for Dugger's injury. Dugger was last year's backup who become the starter this year. Carter hit a 52y TD last week, but only attempted 6 passes. This will be his first start. In the right circumstances, I like kind of like the Lindenwood passing offense. Hard to like this week, on the road, first start for young QB. Over 55.5 sounds like a lot of pts considering Charleston Southern is averaging 14.2 ppg this year, they are off a 13-10 game vs Kennesaw where neither team topped 300y of O. Charleston Southern hasn't broken 300y on O at any point this season! It's a very poor offense (avg 2.9 ypc rush and 49% completions vs FCS). Lindenwood averages 20 ppg vs FCS, although they did have a 43 pt game. Their ypg avg is 332. But that was with their #1 QB. Lindenwood is off a 23-0 win in which neither team topped 220 total yards! Lindenwood Unders are 4-1 (avg total 60). Charleston Southern Unders are just 2-2; the 2 Unders were very firmly Under (22 on 51 pt total and 23 on 48.5 pt total). The 2 Overs are because Clemson and WCU scored 66 and 77 on them. This game has to be an Under. 55.5 is way high for these teams.

 

[oakas]

Hey s--k. Really enjoy your FCS write-ups. Do you have an opinion on the SFA/Central Arkansas contest. I really like C. Arky here. I am sure I will not be able to get the opening -6. Thanks

 

[s--k]

Missouri State played the last 6 quarters with their backup QB Jordan Pachot as Jacob Clark is out for the season. Going against SIU and NDSU is pretty tough for your first action. 39-65-398-2-3, sacked 5x. It's about to get a lot easier vs Western Illinois. W ILL pass D allows 73% with a 11-3 ratio and 13.7 ypc. Last year Mizzou St snapped a 5 game tailspin with a 64-14 home win (-16.5); it was their most impressive win of the season last year when impressive play was seldom seen out of the Bear O or D. That line wasn't exactly accurate, but weird to see this line higher on the road this year. Western Illinois is upgraded at QB this year, although that doesn't always show itself, like last week. I really have no interest in this game.

I haven't bet a Steven F Austin game all year and barely have seen them play. SFA beat Alcorn, NW State and Tx A&M Commerce, teams who are currently 4-12 SU outscoring them by 91 pts. They lost to Austin Peay, although that game was played close by SFA compared to what Austin Peay had been playing like vs others. Then last week they lost as 14.5 pt favorite at Utah Tech who is all over the map with their play. Vs the one FCS team SFA played with a winning record they scored just 20 pts, ran for just 131 (4.0), passed for just 193 (55%) and totaled 324y. Vs AP they also only converted just 14% 3rd down. In their 3 FCS wins vs the combined 4-12 teams they avg 45ppg, ran for 187 (4.8), passed for 310 (53%) and totaled 498 ypg while also converting 56% of their 3rd downs. They had good offensive numbers vs Utah Tech except for the 3-of-14 3rd downs. Here it was the D that let them down. In their wins vs the 4-12 teams they allowed just 14.6 ppg, 269 ypg (4.3). Utah Tech hit them for 37 and 461 (6.2). Was that an exception? Central Arkansas certainly has a good O averaging 37.5 ppg and 498 ypg vs FCS, they can do it with the run or with the pass vs a better ovearll collection of opponents. UCA did give it up on D vs the likes of NDSU and SEMO last week. UCA is 0-2 ATS on closing lines the last two weeks with a misleading 2 pt win at SUU (+239 yard edge) and a huge come-from-behind 5 pt win vs SEMO. I'm going to expect the SFA D to struggle to deal with UCA O. UCA has the better QB, better RB, better overal O Last year a then 4-5 UCA beat a then 5-4 SFA 34-7. I don't think this game goes quite like that. It points to Central Arkansas, but the last two weeks have shown that UCA can make an easy game hard (SUU) and can allow an opponent to outplay them on their homefield for 3Q like SEMO did. Feel like it is a big game for SFA to rebound. Not really sure I do much with this game.

A&M Commerce is another team I haven't been involved with. Incarnate Word can put it on cruise control at this point all the way to the Southland Title, which appears like what they did last week after HT (led SELU 24-6 HT, SELU cameback on them in the 2H was just 24-19 about to be 24-21 when UIW blk'd the xpt ret'd for 2 the other way and was 26-19 instead - 33-26 F). Knowing coaches I'm sure that game doesn't sit well with them, getting up and allowing a team to come back on them. So I tend to think that UIW would look to play better for 4Q this week. A&M Commerce gets win #1 last week vs McNeese with a 470-280 yard edge. Before that game they were allowing 529y vs FCS on D and 46 ppg! Thankfully A&M Commerce got to face McNeese who only managed 280y and 10 pts. If UIW is going to bring an A game and if the A&M Commerce D is who they were before last week that would be trouble. In terms of overall play, A&M Commerce does appear to be improving, most notably on O. In the two games vs Davis and Sac St before their early bye they avg just 11.5 ppg and 245.5 ypg, struggled with pass completions (53%) and run ypc (3.8) and 3rd downs (22%). In the two FCS games since the bye they are averaging 34 ppg, 420 ypg, 61.5% completions and 46% 3rd down. It helps the schedule lightened up vs SFA and McNeese the last two instead of two 2022 Big Sky playoff teams as well. Total looks low at 52.5. 3 of 4 A&M Commerce FCS games have gone over (avg total 50.5). Overs are 0-4 though in UIW games! Avg total has been 60.25. Last week was the closest it's been to Over, combined 59 pts on a 60.5 pt total. Looks good for UIW's first Over game of the year Saturday.

Not sure who is at QB for Eastern Washington, the dual threat Jared Taylor who unexpectedly started vs Idaho or Kekoa Visperas. So here is the thing with Eastern Washington; they are just 2-3 with one of their wins against SELU who is now 0-6. Everyone says they are good (currently ranked), which I think is meant to compare them to last season, they are improved and have played well at times, better than last year. But they failed to cover their two toughest games vs NDSU and Idaho - a lot of teams would fail to cover against those two. I'm just wondering though, are they really good? I think there is a difference between good to above average to average. Good is, top 25? Do they really deserve to be ranked here? Beating UC Davis and being more competitive than last year in the losses gets you ranked. They've been outgained in 3 FCS games by 146 ypg including UC Davis who they beat despite allowing 272 rush yards, most of which came in just 3Q before Larison got hurt. The only FCS team they outgained was SELU +237 in their 11 pt win. They have the #2 pass D in the Big Sky in yards, but that is because teams have choosen to run on them instead and they have the #12 Big Sky rush D (251ypg 6.5ypc allowed)! Pass Eff D for EWU is 8th. Idaho State D is a mirror image, #1 pass D, #11 rush D, #10 Pass Eff D. Idaho State doesn't care to run and barely tries, they are the #1 pass O in the league. So EWU's normal weakness here shouldn't a liability that it has been vs everyone else. EWU's improved play has been seen on a bigger stage, but Idaho State is also improved with new HC Cody Hawkins. They've only played 3 FCS games, outgained by -181 and -60 vs UNI and Montana. Outgained UNC by +64 in their 14 pt win. Jordan Cooke is the new QB this year and he's off his best game of the season vs Montana (31-47-289-3-2, 5 rush att-22y). ISU O is avg full TD more scoring this year than last. The D numbers aren't better yet because of the 78pts and 591y allowed to Utah State. UNI did put it on them pretty good week 3, so that could provide some forshadowing in this one if Visperas plays. These two haven't played for a few years, EWU has won 12 in a row. Idaho State's last win in the series was 2005. I'm not going to buy EWU -11.5 here. I honestly don't know who I think wins this game and if I don't know that then I have to lean to the +11.5. 67.5 is too high of a total for me, but there should be plenty of scoring unless it is Taylor at QB for EWU then they are a less efficient passing O and will run more. Big home game for Hawkins here in year 1. I think they probably feel they played well enough to win at Montana, losing 20-28, they were in that game the whole way. Compared to last year, they scored garbage pts to get it looking respectible.

 

[s--k]

Hey s--k. Really enjoy your FCS write-ups. Do you have an opinion on the SFA/Central Arkansas contest. I really like C. Arky here. I am sure I will not be able to get the opening -6. Thanks

Yes, I just had it in my last post after your's. Summary, I like Central Arkansas as a team and I think most everything points to them in this game. I don't like SFA on the year as a whole. Sometimes I insert intangibles, situations, maybe too much so - it can influence if I'm on or off a team or if I just go something small on them or a normal amount. Something about the set up I don't like for UCA or maybe something for SFA feels like they come out swining here. But just pure play on the field and the numbers, yeah, UCA is a strong team. If they play their normal game and if SFA plays their normal game - UCA should win by a couple scores probably.

 

[s--k]

There are 5 more games. I'm not overly motivated to dig very deep on those at the moment.

I would expect Tennessee State to win - just not sure they can be trusted as basically a 10 pt fav yet. Norfolk St isn't awful comparitively speaking.

Houston Chrisitian is off a pretty ugly looking loss to Nichols. Close loss to Lamar before that. No sustained momentum off the SELU win, so it's a total fluke. But Prairie View is weak, so was Lamar. HCU could've beat Lamar. Small line for the home team, might try HCU again.

Davis at Weber is tough one really. You get the better QB with UC Davis. Weber is really hurting, they are a big comeback win vs UNC away from being on a 4 game skid. The O is very bad and the D isn't as good as it was either. Full strength Davis would be an easier pick, but I think their QB Hastings isn't the kind of guy who just does it will the entire O on his shoulders, they had a really good RB and run game before Larison got hurt. I really don't want to have to pick this game, lean Davis I suppose.

Montana State can name their score. They will play reserves early and often so do not expect another 72-28 game like last year.

The big one, in the sold out Kibbie Dome. Don't know when or how long, but hear they have not sold it out in a while. Will be a lot of Griz fans there too. Montana has received a lot of negativity this year - which for their history and their expectations and their rank that is justified, but they aren't a bad team, they just also aren't an especially good team. I think if they played Idaho off the NAU loss it would be a complete blowout. Now? I do think that Montana has gained a little confidence and their win vs Davis really isn't all that great, but from what I understand listening to others, it is the way they did it, the type of plays they ran on O, they found some things, the OL actually looked good. They cared. So that at least gives us a more interesting matchup and maybe a little more of a competitive game, maybe. Idaho is top to bottom a lot better. Their D is good enough to limit the Montana O and everyone loves the Idaho O. If 8.5 looks too high now, it's going to go towards 2 TDs I suspect by kickoff. Just because it is or might be 8.5 at open and just because I'm saying it closes like at 13 or 14 doesn't make me want to take the 8.5. There are a few ways I can see Montana hanging around a 7 pt margin. Could be that Idaho normally is up by 10-14 and Montana gets back within a score. It is possible, but I do not feel it will be a blowout. It's on national TV ESPN 2 - I just hope it represents the subdivision well and is a good sample of one for sure playoff team and one bubble type playoff team - if anyone actually watches, it is late start!

 

[KJ]

The big one, in the sold out Kibbie Dome. Don't know when or how long, but hear they have not sold it out in a while. Will be a lot of Griz fans there too. Montana has received a lot of negativity this year - which for their history and their expectations and their rank that is justified, but they aren't a bad team, they just also aren't an especially good team. I think if they played Idaho off the NAU loss it would be a complete blowout. Now? I do think that Montana has gained a little confidence and their win vs Davis really isn't all that great, but from what I understand listening to others, it is the way they did it, the type of plays they ran on O, they found some things, the OL actually looked good. They cared. So that at least gives us a more interesting matchup and maybe a little more of a competitive game, maybe. Idaho is top to bottom a lot better. Their D is good enough to limit the Montana O and everyone loves the Idaho O. If 8.5 looks too high now, it's going to go towards 2 TDs I suspect by kickoff. Just because it is or might be 8.5 at open and just because I'm saying it closes like at 13 or 14 doesn't make me want to take the 8.5. There are a few ways I can see Montana hanging around a 7 pt margin. Could be that Idaho normally is up by 10-14 and Montana gets back within a score. It is possible, but I do not feel it will be a blowout. It's on national TV ESPN 2 - I just hope it represents the subdivision well and is a good sample of one for sure playoff team and one bubble type playoff team - if anyone actually watches, it is late start!

The absolute encouragement Grizz fans around the globe have been waiting for.

 

[s--k]

12:00 Eastern




4:00 Eastern

 

[s--k]

Rain at these game locations today. Wind is not a problem except maybe at Dayton.

Yale, Lehigh, Marist, Duquesne, Colgate, Dayton, Cornell, Monmouth, Villanova, Columbia, Delaware, Stony Brook

Brown and Bryant show only cloudy. Rhode Island is showing rain for the 2H.

 

[carolinablue]

HCU is one I have my eye on as even though they continue to burn me, we may get some decent value in today’s number as a silver lining. Will be hard to pass up anything less than 3 as they should roll but pretty sure I said the same thing last time around.