Week 4 Discussion Thread

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B.A.R.

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Thursday, Sep 28, 2017 - NFL Football Game

08:25 PM 101 Chicago Bears +7 -110 +270 Ov 45½ -110
102 Green Bay Packers -7 -110 -325 Un 45½ -110

Sunday, Oct 01, 2017 - NFL Football Game

09:30 AM 251 New Orleans Saints
-2½ -113 Ov 49½ -110
252 Miami Dolphins +2½ -107 Un 49½ -110

01:00 PM 253 Carolina Panthers +8½ -107 Ov 47½ -110
254 New England Patriots -8½ -113 Un 47½ -110

01:00 PM 255 Los Angeles Rams +8½ -110
256 Dallas Cowboys -8½ -110

01:00 PM 259 Tennessee Titans -1 -115 Ov 43½ -110
260 Houston Texans +1 -105 Un 43½ -110

01:00 PM 261 Jacksonville Jaguars -3½ -105 Ov 39½ -110
262 New York Jets +3½ -115 Un 39½ -110

01:00 PM 263 Cincinnati Bengals -3 -115 Ov 40 -110
264 Cleveland Browns +3 -105 Un 40 -110

01:00 PM 265 Pittsburgh Steelers -2½ -122 Ov 44½ -110
266 Baltimore Ravens +2½ +102 Un 44½ -110

01:00 PM 267 Buffalo Bills +8 -110 Ov 48½ -105
268 Atlanta Falcons -8 -110 Un 48½ -115

04:05 PM 269 New York Giants +3½ -115
270 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3½ -105

04:05 PM 271 Philadelphia Eagles +1 -110 Ov 47 -115
272 Los Angeles Chargers -1 -110 Un 47 -105

04:05 PM 273 San Francisco 49ers +7 -110
274 Arizona Cardinals -7 -110

04:25 PM 275 Oakland Raiders +2½ -106 Ov 46½ -110
276 Denver Broncos -2½ -114 Un 46½ -110

08:30 PM 277 Indianapolis Colts +13 -110 Ov 41½ -110
278 Seattle Seahawks -13 -110 Un 41½ -110

Monday, Oct 02, 2017 - NFL Football Game

08:30 PM 279 Washington Redskins +6½ -112 Ov 49½ -110
280 Kansas City Chiefs -6½ -108 Un 49½ -110
 
SeaHens getting way too much respect but the spot isn't good for Indy at all.

Carolina tt OVER 19.5 or so...sign me up...

Almost have to like Philly...maybe a good LIVE play...

Rams getting the benefit of a 'dallas spread'. ...
 
I got +3 on Miami from Bovada, thought it would've been 3-4 the other way. Possible over reaction to two teams who played much differently yesterday than they did the prior week? Made line predictions Saturday morning & was within two on every game but this one.
 
Played Cincy and Car out of the gate. If that was max effort for NE, Car might win SU. Almost played Mia but don't trust Cutler overseas.
 
The Rams run D is Swiss cheese. They're coming off 10 days rest while the Pokes are on a short week playing tonight on the road. Could be very high scoring. I expect to start seeing Rams totals in the high 40's to low 50's.
 
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Weird things happen on TNF, but are the Bears really going to win in Lambeau coming off a short week of preparation?
 
I think Bears get slaughtered coming off a big win now a short travel week.....GB had a scare and survived...have to check their health but this feels like a blowout/Mike Glennon suckfest on national TV
 
Week 4 and 5 to me are the weeks where the wheat starts to separate from the chaff. Meanwhile the raggedy middle still goes back and forth from week to week.

I'll lay 7 with a contender like the Pack at home vs the Bears.

I'll lay 8 with Atlanta at home vs. the Bills.

Pats may be worth a play based on Carolina's injury problems at the skill positions.

Saints off a road win, Miami off an ugly loss, game in London on grass. Feels like Miami.

Wouldn't touch the Cowboys this week, they can win but the Rams are on the rise.

Tennessee has put together two good efforts in a row, now go on the road. Feels like a tough spot for them.

Staying off Jets games at home until McCown goes down.

0-3 Bengals vs. 0-3 Browns, there has to be better things to bet on.

Tomlin hasn't won at Baltimore since 2012. Big Ben hasn't won there since 2010. Should be a slobber knocker.

Tough sledding for Philly this week on the road adjusting to life without Sproles.

Don't know that Arizona or Seattle should be big favorites against anyone.

Tough game to read in Tampa. Bucs were embarrassed but Giants are desperate.

Getting points with the Raiders seems like it should work out more often than not.
 
Dogs went 8-8 SU, 12-4 ATS vs the closing number in Week 3.

Looking at the Thursday game, Packers are banged-up and on a short week.

O-line is a mess, they just signed a dude off the Cards practice squad to play tackle.

Cobb also questionable.

Bears a better team than most folks think.
 
you can call them must win spots but they are probably done, I think only like 3 teams ever started 0-3 and made the playoffs
 
Zeke said:
I got +3 on Miami from Bovada, thought it would've been 3-4 the other way. Possible over reaction to two teams who played much differently yesterday than they did the prior week? Made line predictions Saturday morning & was within two on every game but this one.
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I agree I made phins favs as well, and I loved saints last week. Like Mia to bounce back after a poor effort. unlike sCam I think cutler will slice and dice saints suspect secondary.
 
Looks like a very good teaser week w several favs that outta win outright and at least 2-3 very attractive dogs under a fg.
 
D-Woww said:
very hard for me to see a packers/pats teaser losing
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That New England defense leaves so much too be desired though...

If someone wants to do the square teaser of the week, I'd throw Atlanta in with Green Bay.
 
I'm interested in the London game. Saints looked great lw but that was against the toothless offense of the Panthers, who still averaged 6 ypc. The Fins will go as Ajayi does this season... no way they win games with Cutler attempting 40+ passes. The Saints can't stop the run, Ajayi assuming he's healthy should rip them, but I'm a bit hesitant for a couple reasons, all defensive.

Big news to me is Timmon's return, which should really help the trash lb core. Miami will need to generate a pass rush with just the DL if they are to win this game. I would think the defense looks much more physical this week, but the secondary is still hot garbage. If there's not enough pressure early it could be a game where Brees puts on a clinic. They just allowed McCown to throw 13+ yd receptions to all 6 ppl he threw to. That is terrible.


At first glance I thought this total was lined way too high especially for being on grass, but typing this out and working through it both offenses have the potential to expose each other's biggest weakness. Ultimately I think the Dolphins may be a good wager. Ajayi may be a solid prop bet off a bad one....
 
I like the phins too and I think they have value if you can get the 3. This looks line one of those lines that will annoyingly hover between the 2.5 and 3 making it tough to get a good number.

Playing devil's advocate, the biggest concern about them is that they haven't played a home game since week 2 of the preseason. Its the mother of all road trips and we don't have a lot of history on this type of situation.
 
If you like Chicago on TNF, probably best to play the ML. You have to go back to the 2014-15 season for the last time GB won by less than 7 pts at home. They have lost 5 times SU during that span. So, basically recent history says they win by 7+ or lose SU.
 
A huge factor that people are overlooking, regarding the Saints game in London, is that the grass up there is actually different than the grass here in the states. This, coupled with the fact that the Saints are a dome team and haven't played as well outdoors over the past few seasons, makes me love the Phins this week. I think the Jets game was an anomaly, as it was a divisional game. Saints D is atrocious!! Don't let last Sunday fool you, the Panthers offense stinks! Just my two cents.
 
More thoughts. Regarding the Eagles/Chargers game. Love the Chargers this week! 0-3 means desperation. This is a bad spot for the Eagles, coming off a close last-second field goal to beat a divisional rival, and now they fly cross-country to play a non-conference game against a team that desperately needs to win?! I'll be on the Chargers this week!
 
Hakan's Picks said:
More thoughts. Regarding the Eagles/Chargers game. Love the Chargers this week! 0-3 means desperation. This is a bad spot for the Eagles, coming off a close last-second field goal to beat a divisional rival, and now they fly cross-country to play a non-conference game against a team that desperately needs to win?! I'll be on the Chargers this week!
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I don't necessarily disagree but think if anything it just a pass for me. Chargers just invent ways to lose, I actually thought they could be competitive this season but after the kicker costing them the 1st 2 games and rivers looking horrible last week where the d played well enough to win I'm having a hard time mustering any sort of faith in them. Even tho they healthier on the offensive side this offense is backsliding with their new defensive minded head coach, looks like a mistake to me they let McCoy go as he doing wonders for donks offense.

On other hand philly was another team I liked coming into the season and unlike lac they meeting my expectations and I just think they will continue to get better as wentz builds chemistry w his new weapons. Their secondary certainly can be beat but they will get pressure on rivers and just not sure I trust him to make enough positive plays under duress.

I been looking pretty hard at the total given I think there are plays to be had vs the philly secondary but philly does such a good job controlling the ball on offense I have to decide if I think rivers can actually be efficient with his chances? I expect philly can put up a decent number of points cause I think they can do a fairly reasonable job blocking chargers edge rushers.
 
Usually when teams go to London, I thought they get the bye week the following week. Both Jax and Balt both play this week. I wonder if there will be any jet lag.
 
cogenman said:
Usually when teams go to London, I thought they get the bye week the following week. Both Jax and Balt both play this week. I wonder if there will be any jet lag.
Click to expand...

Hope not, really hard for me to pass on Balty as dogs. Big Ben doesn't win in this stadium.
 
cogenman said:
Usually when teams go to London, I thought they get the bye week the following week. Both Jax and Balt both play this week. I wonder if there will be any jet lag.
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Jags returning to play on east coast given extra day of rest by coach. They elected to not have the bye week and are used to the whole return from London routine. They should be fine
 
Both ots doubtful for GB. O line is in shambles but I still have a hard time thinking the Bears keep it close. I would think Rodgers looks to get the ball out quick maybe today it's Adams that gets all the targets. I just don't think the Bears have enough in the passing game to keep the offense balanced and moving @GB. Unless Howard carries the whole offense I think this is a comfortable GB win....
 
2daBank said:
Hope not, really hard for me to pass on Balty as dogs. Big Ben doesn't win in this stadium.
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Yeah I wish Ravens were just off a normal game, rather than London. Ben and the Steelers do not fare well in Balty....




VirginiaCavs said:
Jags returning to play on east coast given extra day of rest by coach. They elected to not have the bye week and are used to the whole return from London routine. They should be fine
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Definitely used to the routine of coming back from London, but usually that routine involves a bye week here. so this is actually uncharted territory for them, isnt it?
 
Tito said:
Yeah I wish Ravens were just off a normal game, rather than London. Ben and the Steelers do not fare well in Balty....







Definitely used to the routine of coming back from London, but usually that routine involves a bye week here. so this is actually uncharted territory for them, isnt it?
Click to expand...

They still knew how their bodies would react to the whole situation and how much rest they really needed, so in that sense no, and i'm just assuming that that line of reasoning motivated their decision to choose not to have a bye week
 
2daBank said:
I don't necessarily disagree but think if anything it just a pass for me. Chargers just invent ways to lose, I actually thought they could be competitive this season but after the kicker costing them the 1st 2 games and rivers looking horrible last week where the d played well enough to win I'm having a hard time mustering any sort of faith in them. Even tho they healthier on the offensive side this offense is backsliding with their new defensive minded head coach, looks like a mistake to me they let McCoy go as he doing wonders for donks offense.

On other hand philly was another team I liked coming into the season and unlike lac they meeting my expectations and I just think they will continue to get better as wentz builds chemistry w his new weapons. Their secondary certainly can be beat but they will get pressure on rivers and just not sure I trust him to make enough positive plays under duress.

I been looking pretty hard at the total given I think there are plays to be had vs the philly secondary but philly does such a good job controlling the ball on offense I have to decide if I think rivers can actually be efficient with his chances? I expect philly can put up a decent number of points cause I think they can do a fairly reasonable job blocking chargers edge rushers.
Click to expand...

Another thing to consider is the Darren Sproles injury. If I am remembering correctly, the Eagles were up 14-0 before Sproles got hurt - and then let the Giants back in the game after he went down. Blount is not an every down back that fits their system. They need to figure out their backfield.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
Another thing to consider is the Darren Sproles injury. If I am remembering correctly, the Eagles were up 14-0 before Sproles got hurt - and then let the Giants back in the game after he went down. Blount is not an every down back that fits their system. They need to figure out their backfield.
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I think they have a few serviceable guys, none as dynamic as sproles but he really hasn't been a big part of the offense thus far had he? I don't think losing that lead had much of anything to do with him so much as the defense getting torched for a few big plays..

I wouldn't bet philly this week, don't disagree with you at all that it a pretty good spot to be on chargers. I just don't think I can bring myself to do it, philly so good w time of possession and chargers the opposite so I worry if rivers can be efficient enough w his opportunities without chargers shooting themselves in the foot?

I still lean over cause philly secondary can certainly be had as seen in the 4th qrtr last week and chargers have the guys on the outside to do it. My concern is chargers offense just hasn't looked very good under this new coaching staff.,
 
Tito said:
Yeah I wish Ravens were just off a normal game, rather than London. Ben and the Steelers do not fare well in Balty....
Click to expand...

I pulled the trigger when I got bal+3 available, I was planning on teasing them if it never got above 2.5 but I'm comfortable getting the fg. After watching the pit/chi replay and seeing bears run game just gash pit feel like we see a similar script here where flacco isn't asked to do a lot and there should be some big plays available off run action as you would think run defense been over emphasized this week in pit.

My other thing is while the travel does bother me it helps they got their asses kicked, feel like it probably a worse spot for jags this week. That and I think steelers having some team internal issues with the whole anthem ordeal so going w the idea their practices may not have been as focused as they should be offsetting the scheduling advantage, I'll tell myself anything to justify, lol..
 
I'm know I'm still too low on Donks and need to adjust more but once again I want to be against them..just don't think these teams even on a neutral so raiders +3 very appealing to me, would love to have ya'll talk me off this one!!
 
Really like the over 48 in Dallas. Rams look lost defensively trying to adjust to switching to Phillips 3-4. Far lessor rushing attacks have been gashing them, think this big time get right game for a chunky looking zeke!! As we saw last year when Zeke gets going this offense puts up points and I fully expect that to happen here so think we talking 31ish for Dallas.

If boys put up that kind of number I think it flys over the total cause I fully expect lambs to be able to hang 20+ on boys defense.
 
Someone talk me off the Texans... Watson with his first home start off a tough loss. He's a playmaker, but I do keep thinking about the couple passes I saw vs Cincy that could have easily been pick 6ed. Still, after watching the Titans lw and Wilson putting up 373 4tds, just can't back them otr. Texans get Fuller back which should open up the passing game, Hop will benefit from it. Better defense at home off a trash performance, have a feeling this is a slobberknocker. 43.5 these days looks so beatable but I do think this may be a game where points are at a premium. I think the Texans are the play and would not recommend the over despite the questionable secondaries....
 
fwiw because I think it will be so tight I will grab +2.5 over the current +120 ml. IMO a good teaser candidate to go with that fave you love so much....
 
2daBank said:
Really like the over 48 in Dallas. Rams look lost defensively trying to adjust to switching to Phillips 3-4. Far lessor rushing attacks have been gashing them, think this big time get right game for a chunky looking zeke!! As we saw last year when Zeke gets going this offense puts up points and I fully expect that to happen here so think we talking 31ish for Dallas.

If boys put up that kind of number I think it flys over the total cause I fully expect lambs to be able to hang 20+ on boys defense.
Click to expand...

Yeah I see this as a potential score fest as well. Dallas' secondary is so beat up, I think Goff can have a field day and the Rams defense is soft against the run so Zeke should eat them alive.

I got 47.5 but like you, I think its probably good up to 50.
 
I am already warm on Baltimore but thinking about the Steelers present situation makes me like them even more.

I have to wonder if all the distraction around the team and the anthem nonsense might take a toll. First you have Vilanueva who accidentally ends up standing on his own for the anthem and becomes a hero for it. Then he publicly apologizes for letting down his teammates. Meanwhile his jersey sales have skyrocketed and there is the issue of what to do with proceeds. Then Big Doof says he wishes he had stood. Then all the shit with Tomlin and the racist comments directed at him.

It just seems like they are dealing with a whole lot of non-football related nonsense this week which could rob them of their edge. Anyone have thoughts?
 
Hulu said:
I am already warm on Baltimore but thinking about the Steelers present situation makes me like them even more.

I have to wonder if all the distraction around the team and the anthem nonsense might take a toll. First you have Vilanueva who accidentally ends up standing on his own for the anthem and becomes a hero for it. Then he publicly apologizes for letting down his teammates. Meanwhile his jersey sales have skyrocketed and there is the issue of what to do with proceeds. Then Big Doof says he wishes he had stood. Then all the shit with Tomlin and the racist comments directed at him.

It just seems like they are dealing with a whole lot of non-football related nonsense this week which could rob them of their edge. Anyone have thoughts?
Click to expand...

I played ravens and while the off the field stuff wasn't huge in my decision it did cross my mind and thought if anything maybe it offset the bad travel spot for balty.

think I mentioned it in a earlier post, really not sure if it effects them but certainly don't think any of that crap surrounding this team can be good for preparation leading up to this game. They do have the feel of a team with some internal turmoil and not the 1st time so it could all just be building up to a situation players second guessing the coaching staff..

ultimately I played ravens cause imo the line ass backwards. No clue why steelers laying road chalk in a stadium they have had very little success? Getting a fg or more in this game has pretty much always been a no brainer as most their games one score contest.
 
I'm surprised so many of you guys like the Dolphins....

Anyone know for sure the travel there? I think the Saints flew to London straight after CAR
 
twinkie13 said:
I'm surprised so many of you guys like the Dolphins....
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I think people are generally down on the Fins off losing a divisional game... I will always lean towards fading a road favorite with a suspect defense. However both d here are suspect. Just reading now that the Fins benched Maxwell in favor of 3rd round pick Tankersley.... not the most encouraging thing to read if you are backing the Fins, especially when you factor in Snead's return. Whatever limited capacity he plays should still open up Thomas and the passing game as a whole. Seems to outweigh Timmon's return. Over may be the best way to go unless Brees has one of those 3 turnover games.... Still find it hard to see Ajayi getting held in check.... might be my first prop bet of the season
 
Line back in April was Cowboys -12.5 vs these Rams and the Fins were -3 faves in London.
 
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