Week 18 Discussion Thread

A couple interesting line moves so far:

Bengals -4.5 to -7

Are the Browns simply going to run out practice squad guys, handoff three times and punt every possession? How do the Bengals give two craps about that game, why would they play any stars?

Chargers -1 to -3.5 - Chad Henne seems like a solid backup, but maybe they are sitting him as well.

Edit: Henne is a solid backup but also retired. Blaine Gabbert - now I get the line move. A real moveable object v. resistible force situation, Gabbert throwing uncatchable passes to receivers who cannot catch.
 
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Lexington 125 said:
Nothing more fitting than to see the Bills with a chance to win the division as well as a chance to miss the playoffs entirely. So Billsy

Bills two straight close games to subpar teams, Miami off getting blown out. Too many injuries on the Miami side for me to think they can beat Buffalo.

Allen neck stinger the biggest ? for me on the Bill's side. Not even really concerned but there is a chance he's more injured than they are letting on.

D is getting better every week & now totally healthy. Main concern for me is that I think Hyde/Poyer tandem is NOT what it used to be. Hyde is washed but is getting by on football IQ. Zappe td run he couldn't even get to the play in time when there is no doubt Rapp would have been able to. Many would disagree because Rapp has been burned but I wouldn't be opposed to him getting the start over Hyde right now. D-line is the strength and Oliver once again had an amazing game. Von scratched is the right move as everyone else playing amazing. LBs have played much better down the stretch. Tua will be in trouble. To me Mostert in or out doesn't mean much, Bills gonna have to stop whoever is running the ball. Waddle's status is huge, without him I don't think the Fins can match up firepower wise. I'll be the first to admit I didn't think Rasul was going to have the impact he has. Without him we miss the playoffs entirely. Elam is a bust but Benford is turning into a ball hawk.. I think the Bills can continue to force turnovers with the pressure they are applying on the d line.

Bill's offensive woes on the road were on full display last week. Allen couldn't hit anything and missed 2 td passes by a lot. However, this miami D just lost Chubb & will be without Howard. Bills might come out run heavy to start I think they come with a physical game early. They should be able to run Cook/TY & when the run game is going, they're not going to be stopped. I think we see Eli Apple get abused this week. Every D in the league knows you have to shut down Diggs to have a shot vs Buffalo but who does it this week? Nobody can convince me Ramsey is going to 1 on 1. He looked amazing coming back but last 2 games vs real wrs not so much. Diggs will have to get doubled. Shakir yds over will be a definite play as he catches everything. Kincaid off a huge game who covers him? I don't see a LB on the roster that can hang so it may be a matchup they look to exploit. Offense simply too talented to have another bad primetime showing only a matter of time before they get right.


Allen off a bad game facing a team he owns for the division. I'm going with my guyyyyyy

Bills-3

Bills tt over (will prob play a juiced 26 rather than 26.5 though I think they score 30+)

Shakir yds over. TD prob in +220 range only a matte of time but more of a longshot

Cook yds over & TD

Diggs yds over if it's set at 69 again I'm biting.

Kincaid TD might be worth a look.
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Diggs 59.5

Ive bet his over 4-5 weeks in a row… big. May go again
 
Outside of Purdy, CMC, T Williams and about 4 more who are hurt, Shanahan is not approaching this week as his bye week. Can’t have 2 bye weeks in a row and think you’ll be clicking on all cylinders come divisionals said Shanahan. Rams are starting Wentz. Stafford, Kupp, K. Williams, Donald and starting MLB are out. Puka will get his 4 catches and 29 yards to set rookie records and he’s getting pulled. Personally, I think Wentz has turned awful and will struggle. He hasn’t played all year. Shanahan said it and McVay knows it. These teams could be playing each other in the divisionals so they’ll be vanilla. Here’s the problem. Shanahan’s vanilla will be better than what McVay has out there. Not saying to bet unwisely but Rams might get an ass whopping. I’m thinking 27-10 type game or worse.
 
C-MAN said:
Cincy line looks high to me. Clev is 8-2 SU L10 meetings. Cincy has nothing to play for and can’t see them being too motivated to finish off a disappointing season. I’ll take the points as Clev looks to continue momentum into the playoffs.
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No Flacco, the Browns are trotting out Jeff Driskel.
 
KJ said:
No Flacco, the Browns are trotting out Jeff Driskel.
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what about everyone else ? browns always beat cincy cause they just dominate the trenches. browns could of not attempted 1 pass and won the last time they played
 
EL CAPO said:
what about everyone else ? browns always beat cincy cause they just dominate the trenches. browns could of not attempted 1 pass and won the last time they played
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No clue. I'm not intentionally betting any games this weekend. Too much fluky stuff, it's truly gambling imo
 
do think its a great situational spot for cincy tho off 2 losses

rams have no depth , horrible in preseason, and mcvay doesn't take these games seriously

tampa line too low now.....last meeting tampa had several linebackers out and panthers ran on them and still had to backdoor.....now tampa same spot as jax last week........a motivated team vs the panthers, the perfect get right spot
 
Colin Wynner said:
All things being equal I believe the Rams would prefer the #6 over the #7 but as you stated not at the expense of health. It seems like the 49ers are playing most of their starters for at least a quarter to keep them from the dreaded three week layoff. I thought 49ers -2.5 was a steal early, but with both teams eventually resting it will be closer to a pre-season game from the second half on. I can see McVay motivated to get a win with back-ups and head to Detroit.

I don't think either match-up is particularly good for the Rams.
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Hey, Fat Mike in a playoff game.

I'd take that all day given the choice.

Much friendlier environment... yes Dallas is great at home but that's not the most intimidating venue fan wise. Ford Field might set decibel records.
 
EL CAPO said:
do think its a great situational spot for cincy tho off 2 losses

rams have no depth , horrible in preseason, and mcvay doesn't take these games seriously

tampa line too low now.....last meeting tampa had several linebackers out and panthers ran on them and still had to backdoor.....now tampa same spot as jax last week........a motivated team vs the panthers, the perfect get right spot
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I see an ass whopping coming for the Rams this week. McVay could care less and is Wentz even an NFL QB anymore? Rams took him off the streets.
 
seem weird to anybody else that the bills were thought of as bad during patriots denver run; then declared unlucky and annointed , and then after 2 wins people are saying they no good again ?

the first part makes sense, the rise after to oc makes sense......but now they suck ? doesn't add up
 
EL CAPO said:
seem weird to anybody else that the bills were thought of as bad during patriots denver run; then declared unlucky and annointed , and then after 2 wins people are saying they no good again ?

the first part makes sense, the rise after to oc makes sense......but now they suck ? doesn't add up
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It's a funny narrative. Horrible spot vs Chargers and they pull it out... Opening kick returned for a td last week made the game closer than it should have been.

Defense is playing light years better and all you hear is how Diggs isn't getting the ball.
 
EL CAPO said:
tampa line too low now.....last meeting tampa had several linebackers out and panthers ran on them and still had to backdoor.....now tampa same spot as jax last week........a motivated team vs the panthers, the perfect get right spot
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I keep looking at this like am i missing something? Wirfs status a concern, but they are far and away a better team with a chance to win and get in? I'm sure the Panthers would love to play spoiler but they have no answer for Evans. Rashad get right game Baker just has to not throw 2 picks & they win by 7+
 
Colts/Texans

Texans without Greenard on d makes it a bit of a scary defense to back... however

Minshew vs. Stroud is a no brainer for me. Stroud should be able to carve up the Colts even without Brown. Waiting to see what the deal is with the Colts o-line as they are banged up but I'll def be on the Texans to win. 47 looks high to me
 
Bills/Miami total & line dropping is odd.

7-1 home team dogged really might look tempting but look again- actually undefeated right as KC was in london. All bad teams outside of Dallas.

If miami gets down 2 scores early, what do you think will happen? Chubb lost for the season last week, they'll have to go to KC. They would be complete idiots to not pack it in & just get healthy for the playoffs. Achane with toe & rib injuries, Mostert seemingly will miss. Might just be wilson I know that's what I would do if I was Miami. Achane goes down & Miami is toast in the postseason. Waddle still hasn't practiced

Bills tt is 24.5 glad I didn't lock in yet. I'll def play a juiced 24 but I have a hard time seeing Miami keeping Buffalo under 30. Could see a scenario where Miami shuts it down & Buffalo chews clock but for it to get to that point I'd imagine 21 pts will already have to be otb for Buffalo. If that's the case I would think the backups muster 1 td....
 
Pitt win makes Sunday Night one of the biggest games we’ve ever seen. A 2 seed to sitting home. Can’t see it not happening.

Last year we had the Lions knock out the Packers in what still remains their biggest win as a franchise. But that has nothing on Miami Buffalo.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Bills/Miami total & line dropping is odd.

7-1 home team dogged really might look tempting but look again- actually undefeated right as KC was in london. All bad teams outside of Dallas.

If miami gets down 2 scores early, what do you think will happen? Chubb lost for the season last week, they'll have to go to KC. They would be complete idiots to not pack it in & just get healthy for the playoffs. Achane with toe & rib injuries, Mostert seemingly will miss. Might just be wilson I know that's what I would do if I was Miami. Achane goes down & Miami is toast in the postseason. Waddle still hasn't practiced

Bills tt is 24.5 glad I didn't lock in yet. I'll def play a juiced 24 but I have a hard time seeing Miami keeping Buffalo under 30. Could see a scenario where Miami shuts it down & Buffalo chews clock but for it to get to that point I'd imagine 21 pts will already have to be otb for Buffalo. If that's the case I would think the backups muster 1 td....
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Fangio never had an answer for Wilson as the 9ers DC. He didn’t last week vs Lamar. Hopefully Brady stops holding down Josh and just lets him go wild Allen. They aren’t winning a ring with him managing the game and not using his weapons. Let him cook!
 
Inspekdah said:
Pitt win makes Sunday Night one of the biggest games we’ve ever seen. A 2 seed to sitting home. Can’t see it not happening.

Last year we had the Lions knock out the Packers in what still remains their biggest win as a franchise. But that has nothing on Miami Buffalo.
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Jaguars also have to win to force the Bills into "win or out" mode.
 
Inspekdah said:
Pitt win makes Sunday Night one of the biggest games we’ve ever seen. A 2 seed to sitting home. Can’t see it not happening.

Last year we had the Lions knock out the Packers in what still remains their biggest win as a franchise. But that has nothing on Miami Buffalo.
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Haha, that was not the Lions biggest win as a franchise.

They have NFL Championships.

They've won a playoff game (lol) since 1957

If we're just talking regular season ..

'92 Dallas
'93 Green Bay
'95 the last 7 games.
'97 Jets (my choice)
'11 Chargers (Christmas Eve to clinch)

Plenty more but that's a good start.
 
B.A.R. said:
Haha, that was not the Lions biggest win as a franchise.

They have NFL Championships.

They've won a playoff game (lol) since 1957

If we're just talking regular season ..

'92 Dallas
'93 Green Bay
'95 the last 7 games.
'97 Jets (my choice)
'11 Chargers (Christmas Eve to clinch)

Plenty more but that's a good start.
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Was ‘11 the ass blast in the Dome?
 
B.A.R. said:
Haha, that was not the Lions biggest win as a franchise.

They have NFL Championships.

They've won a playoff game (lol) since 1957

If we're just talking regular season ..

'92 Dallas
'93 Green Bay
'95 the last 7 games.
'97 Jets (my choice)
'11 Chargers (Christmas Eve to clinch)

Plenty more but that's a good start.
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Bobby Layne, Texas Longhorn & the greatest QB in Lions history. Also gave me my best ever tip of $300 when I was the gopher/bartender at his all night poker game in the Flagship Hotel Galveston TX in 1976. The man liked to have a drink - before and during the game. Great guy.


 
Mine is o16.5 -105. I thought about it, but they have only scored more than 16 points against the Steelers once in the last 6 meetings. These games are historically low scoring. I’m just sticking with my Balt +4 and teaser wagers.
 
C-MAN said:
Mine is o16.5 -105. I thought about it, but they have only scored more than 16 points against the Steelers once in the last 6 meetings. These games are historically low scoring. I’m just sticking with my Balt +4 and teaser wagers.
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I have the +4 also. I decided agast the 17.5....its now 16.5 -110. At 16 I wud bite, not going to get there
 
bones said:
This worries me. Will miss Noah Brown and D line issues. Update? Cannot find anything past this Colts vs. Texans Injury Report – Week 18, 2023 | FOX Sports

https://twitter.com/x/status/1743017144768479377


I have Texans +1 and a future at +200 on November 26th for Texans Division winner (also a preseason Jags Div winner at -160). Indy wins and it will be bad
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I bet Texans for fun but the better plays are props bc volume should be there - pittman schultz.. maybe collins
 
bones said:
All my bets are for fun...but it sure is no fun losing as I did early this NFL season. Ive done better in last 1/3 of season, but will be a loser on the year which is no fun. :(
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Hah! I just mean I dont have a specific read or angle or data supported decision like I typically will
 
Simple and straight-forward...

AFC:

Image
 
I wonder if the Jets win tomorrow does Saleh get the gatorade dousing or do they carry him off the field on their shoulders. The way this incompetent fool celebrated a last second field goal to beat Washington nothing would surprise me. Of course I'm hoping one more embarrassing loss will shame Woody into changing his mind and firing the idiot but I know they can lose 100-0 and Saleh will be back since Aaron is the de facto owner and wants his boyfriend Hackett to stay employed.
 
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Balty was half into that game because it was a home game and didn’t do much at all.

Cleveland on the road with much less depth should do nothing.

Big game for Browning to finish his run off with a win. The fact Chase is playing says a lot. Mixon should be a go. Rivalry game. Bengals should win and cover in a unique situation.

Bill owns the Jets but man that offense didn’t do well vs them a couple of months ago. No point in touching that game.

Going to monitor the 9ers info. 1q ML could be worth a play if we get 12-15 scripted plays with Sam and starters sans CMC. Once they sit the starters on the DL there’s no one who can pressure Wentz and that game becomes a shit show.

Hard to see how Dallas doesn’t destroy Washington.
 
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