Week 16 Discussion Thread

Jags will put the Jets out of their misery as a once 7-4 team will end the season on a six game losing streak to once again prove that the Jets are the worst organization in the league.
 
Philly +2 @ dallas. Wrong team favored but I get its a divisional roadie between rivals. Ill take the points tho.
 
leaning BEARS 9 - what happened to the bills defense since the beginning of year they are showing a considerable slide ? ......know they had a few injuries but poyer is in there at safety........browns, jets, lions could cover this number we don't think the bears can in a bad weather game ?

commanders 7 - defensive under type game and purdy is nothing special we saw him at iowa state and is due for some picks, i struggle to see niners getting lot of margin if they cover will be like how dallas did vs the commanders early in year with their defensive line

lions - i liked what I saw and panthers I think have been overvalued recently

Titans -5.5 vs houston - this feels like the spot you fade houston as a double digit dog and back them as a huge dog. As long as tannehil plays I think titans can cover and they have to be at max motivation right now

packers 5.5 @ dolphins - Green bay getting the full wide receiver crew healthy feels big , and if the chargers matched up well with the dolphins maybe the packers do too - I think their secondary is their strength, now you are getting 5.5 against a fairly poor defense

broncos-2.5 vs rams - rams offense has been a joke without cooper cupp.....as bad as broncos offense been i think they have the better o here ? , and we already know they also have a great d so fielding the better unit on both sides of the ball and a denver team that playing good teams to the wire

bengals -3.5 @ patriots - wonder why the market isn't catching up to cincy when they've coverd 13 of last 15 ? or something incredible........why won't burrow spread the field and pass all over the patriots like josh allen did ?

ravens -7 vs falcons - an interesting line for both sides of the fence - I think this line should be more in the 4.5 range based on the season but when you put the ridder kid at qb and the ravens really needing a win I don't think I want to bet the falcons
 
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B.A.R. said:
That Saints n Browns total is WILD!

31.5.
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I heard this recently: "Always bet the highest total Over and the lowest total Under"

Have no idea if this is total b.s. or if some stats to back it up. I've never tried it or studied it
 
bones said:
I heard this recently: "Always bet the highest total Over and the lowest total Under"

Have no idea if this is total b.s. or if some stats to back it up. I've never tried it or studied it
Click to expand...
I have heard that for years, but I think in the current era of sports gambling, a lot of old maxims just aren't as relevant any more.
 
Looking at starting QBs as of today, I can't help but see how incredibly better the AFC is than the NFC

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Herbert
Lawrence

All better than one NFC QB starting this week and even if Hurts was playing I still think he's in a ceiling year, I could easily plug injured Lamar in for injured Hurts. Crazy how the script has flipped.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
This just in……. Saints are allergic to points.
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Riddle me this.

Why are the Saints ranked dead last in using motion in their offense. Denver is 2nd and has used motion twice as often as the Saints. But thats nothing compared to ……….. The Saints have utilized the screen pass FIVE TIMES in 14 games

One of those went for 40+ yards I believe.

How do you waste Alvin Kamara no matter how healthy he is? What in the fuck.

Also, #FREECRABLEGS!
 
brewers888 said:
Jags will put the Jets out of their misery as a once 7-4 team will end the season on a six game losing streak to once again prove that the Jets are the worst organization in the league.
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I was thrilled to see it was gonna be your boy Zach Wilson playing this game in the rain. Had white been able to play this woulda been a tough game, I can already see Wilson totally botching this and putting his d in bunch of bad spots. One team has a qb ascending into a top 10 star while the other teams best option not able to play so he of the 50% completion rate and missing easy throws gets the start. This woulda been a tough game for jags had white been able to play, long as Wilson under center I’ll be fading jets, it really a shame cause I like the rest the team.
 
brewers888 said:
Jags will put the Jets out of their misery as a once 7-4 team will end the season on a six game losing streak to once again prove that the Jets are the worst organization in the league.
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2daBank said:
I was thrilled to see it was gonna be your boy Zach Wilson playing this game in the rain. Had white been able to play this woulda been a tough game, I can already see Wilson totally botching this and putting his d in bunch of bad spots. One team has a qb ascending into a top 10 star while the other teams best option not able to play so he of the 50% completion rate and missing easy throws gets the start. This woulda been a tough game for jags had white been able to play, long as Wilson under center I’ll be fading jets, it really a shame cause I like the rest the team.
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Lawrence has been beating up low-ranked pass defenses and injury-ridden cornerback groups. He will struggle badly vs Jets. Under is the way to go.
 
2daBank said:
I can just picture the ginger water pistol in clevland in one these super nasty cle games with the wind whipping in off the lake! If saints score 2 tds I’d be shocked!
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Gotta be plenty of history of this from Cinci days
 
9ers beat Saints 13-0 in ideal conditions. I can remember having Bengals receivers late in the season and knowing I had to bench star players due to Daltons weak arm vs the elements. Ultimately, I avoided drafting those guys due to it. Watching Brees play 2-3 years too long while robbing the Saints cap room when we had a very solid team was equally maddening. Brees brought the Saints a Super Bowl and cost them 1-2 more IMO. Not a popular take around here but his greed took rings away from deserving players. No one talks about how Brady sacrificed money for championships. I guess it helps having a wealthier wife (past tense).
 
I heard that dogged road teams have a great record ATS & to a lesser percentage even still SU on Christmas weekend. Makes sense for multiple reasons.

I think the Pats getting fuckin stomped today but the line seems oddly low.
 
Zeke said:
I heard that dogged road teams have a great record ATS & to a lesser percentage even still SU on Christmas weekend. Makes sense for multiple reasons.

I think the Pats getting fuckin stomped today but the line seems oddly low
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I havnt really understood that line all week, other than cincy seems to not get the respect they deserve. I assumed it was gonna be awful weather to negate their huge offensive advantage, it cold but wind ain’t terrible or anything so that ain’t it. I know cincy a little banged up on d but can’t see that mattering all that much vs this garbage pats offense.
 
It really hard to find points for pats. Maybe their d keeps them in it? Cincy score last week was incredibly deceiving, Bucs d pretty much held them in check, it was the 4 turnover 3rd qrtr by Brady (plus a botched fake punt) that lead to all the bengals points.

I dunno, there no damn way I could bet the pats, you can’t even hang your hat on them having a coaching edge anymore, without that what do they have? A mediocre roster with a young qb struggling in a awful system. Take away the way they lost last week or the fact raiders tying td was clearly out of bounds raiders still dominated a huge part of that game, they just did what they always do and tried to give another game they were the better team away. Pats had 13 points against that crappy d thru 3 qrtrs! Mac Jones barely had over 100 yards! Banged up or not cincy isn’t letting Stephenson go for 9 yards a carry like raiders did!!
 
Also Pats spent two weeks out west. Came back the week leading to Christmas with holiday BS on top of the fact they suck.
 
I don't think this is the game to fade the bills. They know how important this one is and Allen & co won't let the #1 slip now. I think it's a convincing 10+ pt win.
 
Long week for Seattle but teams playing game after game vs SF are 1-12 on the season and only team to win was Chiefs after a bye so 14 days to rest. Theory is they simply beat you up. Seattle a big line but Chiefs off a stinker, used to the cold, doubt a banged up Seattle is, etc. -10.5 seems okay but should be a very safe teaser partner. If they weren’t Vegas’ favorite friend it could be a monster play but we’ve seen this organization play within the number consistently despite being what should be a 3 score win over and over.
 
2daBank said:
It really hard to find points for pats. Maybe their d keeps them in it? Cincy score last week was incredibly deceiving, Bucs d pretty much held them in check, it was the 4 turnover 3rd qrtr by Brady (plus a botched fake punt) that lead to all the bengals points.

I dunno, there no damn way I could bet the pats, you can’t even hang your hat on them having a coaching edge anymore, without that what do they have? A mediocre roster with a young qb struggling in a awful system. Take away the way they lost last week or the fact raiders tying td was clearly out of bounds raiders still dominated a huge part of that game, they just did what they always do and tried to give another game they were the better team away. Pats had 13 points against that crappy d thru 3 qrtrs! Mac Jones barely had over 100 yards! Banged up or not cincy isn’t letting Stephenson go for 9 yards a carry like raiders did!!
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The 12 mph is not what the pats needed. Joe should be fine to throw in that…
 
2daBank said:
It really hard to find points for pats. Maybe their d keeps them in it? Cincy score last week was incredibly deceiving, Bucs d pretty much held them in check, it was the 4 turnover 3rd qrtr by Brady (plus a botched fake punt) that lead to all the bengals points.

I dunno, there no damn way I could bet the pats, you can’t even hang your hat on them having a coaching edge anymore, without that what do they have? A mediocre roster with a young qb struggling in a awful system. Take away the way they lost last week or the fact raiders tying td was clearly out of bounds raiders still dominated a huge part of that game, they just did what they always do and tried to give another game they were the better team away. Pats had 13 points against that crappy d thru 3 qrtrs! Mac Jones barely had over 100 yards! Banged up or not cincy isn’t letting Stephenson go for 9 yards a carry like raiders did!!
Click to expand...

Probably best defense they’ve played since the Browns who humbled them. That’s the only thing I can think of…
 
Lexington 125 said:
I don't think this is the game to fade the bills. They know how important this one is and Allen & co won't let the #1 slip now. I think it's a convincing 10+ pt win.
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After the bye they play within the spread it seems every game and the 2h’s are pathetic. 1h may be only way to go. 16 point lead and Fields runs all over then last 2 mins it feels like…
 
bones said:
You have to take them +7 now. "I'll run thru a brick wall for you coach"
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Coming off that fix I’d take them vs anyone besides the 9ers who have basically covered every game for 2 months now (depending on the Chargers line and the sketchy ending where they should have won by 10)
 
Inspekdah said:
After the bye they play within the spread it seems every game and the 2h’s are pathetic. 1h may be only way to go. 16 point lead and Fields runs all over then last 2 mins it feels like…
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Thats what I keep hearing. They are doing just enough to win which is why to me 8.5 line after the bears just kept it close with Philly is fool's gold.

Last week I said fins+7 was the play, but I think this week is a convincing win. I suspect they will make anyone but fields beat them.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Thats what I keep hearing. They are doing just enough to win which is why to me 8.5 line after the bears just kept it close with Philly is fool's gold.

Last week I said fins+7 was the play, but I think this week is a convincing win. I suspect they will make anyone but fields beat them.
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8.5 is a rather weak line though. Maybe if it was 13.5. No one taking the Bears because they kept it close last week. Basically less points than when they played at the hot Lions.
 
which games wil be most affected by strong winds . Most stadiums cover/protect fields from snow or ice dont think thats as much of a concern. Warm weather teams or dome teams playing outside in cold i can see not playin well.
 
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Da Hoss said:
which games wil be most affected by strong winds . Most stadiums cover/protect fields from snow or ice dont think thats as much of a concern. Warm weather teams or dome teams playing outside in cold i can see not playin well.
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Cleveland usually the worst, I think there then Chicago are 1-2 today. Rest places mostly just cold
 
Inspekdah said:
8.5 is a rather weak line though. Maybe if it was 13.5. No one taking the Bears because they kept it close last week. Basically less points than when they played at the hot Lions.
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i got rocked on this game and the commanders....post more good thoughts
 
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