Odds tba
Week 14 Discussion Thread
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Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Vegas -5 over the rams. Good luck. Gun to my head champs ML
Dal -14.5. Doubt they cover the eventual 17, but something like 80% of the teams that win cover in the nfl.....
Buffalo -9.5. The mike whit train ends
Bal -3.5 to 1.5. Who starts? Does it matter?
Cincy -3.5-4.5. The rapist was raw today. Cincy of a huge win, division game. Think it's close. Just couldn't lay it with the either. Fun game to watch.
Tenny - 3.5. Lay it. Don't check the score until 305.
Minny -1 to a pk. Vegas and the PR numbers hate the vikes. Prolly a good spot to play the BARs and not watch until 305pm.
Giants +6.5/Denver +8.5. Think if you put a 100 on each ML you walk away with positive EV
SF -3.5. Sold them this week and was wrong. Will continue to sell them.
Seattle -6 ish will happily lay it and also tease it.
Chargers +1.5. Happily tease it and ml it
Dal -14.5. Doubt they cover the eventual 17, but something like 80% of the teams that win cover in the nfl.....
Buffalo -9.5. The mike whit train ends
Bal -3.5 to 1.5. Who starts? Does it matter?
Cincy -3.5-4.5. The rapist was raw today. Cincy of a huge win, division game. Think it's close. Just couldn't lay it with the either. Fun game to watch.
Tenny - 3.5. Lay it. Don't check the score until 305.
Minny -1 to a pk. Vegas and the PR numbers hate the vikes. Prolly a good spot to play the BARs and not watch until 305pm.
Giants +6.5/Denver +8.5. Think if you put a 100 on each ML you walk away with positive EV
SF -3.5. Sold them this week and was wrong. Will continue to sell them.
Seattle -6 ish will happily lay it and also tease it.
Chargers +1.5. Happily tease it and ml it
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Von Miller done for the year fuck!
DOUBLEUP4LIFE
Pretty much a regular
Clearly was really hoping he would be back for the playoffs...
I've been really impressed by the D line though without VON
...Oliver is playing his best football ( Wish they would have saved their coins to resign him instead of Knox ) ...Groot Rousseau has taken a major step forward , sounds like Miller has coached him up ...Phillips might be the key overall , he's a beat when healthy, sounds like he's likely to miss the Jets game ..Daquan Jones and Tim Settle were great adds by Beane ...Boogie is coming along ...Shaq Lawson is the biggest suprose on the roster imo ...
What do you think about the Jersey Jets game this week ?
Looking at Carr over 250.5 Passing Yards tonight. No Darnold and Adams is finally being used properly + Jacobs on a short week after a million carries the past 2 weeks.
L5 Against Rams - Geno Smith 367 / Mahomes 320 / Dalton 260 / Murray 238 / Brady 280
Carr L5 - Chargers 250 / Seahawks 295 / Broncos 307 / Indy 248 / Jags 259
Thoughts welcome
L5 Against Rams - Geno Smith 367 / Mahomes 320 / Dalton 260 / Murray 238 / Brady 280
Carr L5 - Chargers 250 / Seahawks 295 / Broncos 307 / Indy 248 / Jags 259
Thoughts welcome
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Hard to argue that. Carr o1.5 td passes looks pretty doableLooking at Carr over 250.5 Passing Yards tonight. No Darnold and Adams is finally being used properly + Jacobs on a short week after a million carries the past 2 weeks.
L5 Against Rams - Geno Smith 367 / Mahomes 320 / Dalton 260 / Murray 238 / Brady 280
Carr L5 - Chargers 250 / Seahawks 295 / Broncos 307 / Indy 248 / Jags 259
Thoughts welcome
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I think the Bills win this one, spread is high but doable.
cb DJ Reed & s Joyner are both questionable for the Jets- I'll be watching that because if they are out Bills TT over might be a banger. Sauce is great but he can't be everywhere Allen will rip them.
This is a much tougher test on defense for Mike White, as opposed to Chi & Min secondaries.
DOUBLEUP4LIFE
Pretty much a regular
Those injuries are huge if they're out...With ya on that TTOVER if thats the case
DOUBLEUP4LIFE
Pretty much a regular
Carr's act wears really thin quickly ...Raiders coaching is atrocious this season
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
You'd take Carr all day and twice on Sunday if you weren't a raiders fan.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Bills/Jets
Not much changes from first reaction. Revenge for the Bills, buffalo has played a fuck ton of great offenses this year. Look at home scores this year for Buf. look at the game MW played against the Bills in November of last year. Jets wont be able to run the ball. Time to buy the Bills and sell the Jets. this one wont be close, lay it, tease, parlay it. Winner of the game covers.
Vikes/Bars
If you watch MSM, the Vikings are so direspected its unreal. Vikes a 3pt fav before last weekend happened. Now open as Vikes -1, now Leos -2. Every single tom dick and harry "sharp" will be selling you Detroit today. Line is right, every single metric says the line is right. But you have to dig deep and look at what you've seen on the field. Vikes have been sold by the "sharps" for the last 4-5 games.....hows that worked out? Look at the defenses the Vikings have played the last 4-5 weeks. No Darrisaw, no Dantzler. Dantzler such a huge miss, Vikes love zone D, Detroit killing Zone D lately. This comes down to feel. I feel Like detroit has become the "popular" sharp pick. I'll probably buy the 3 as a homer, and finally have the opportunity to cheer for the home team.
Eagles/Giants
Alot of talk about the Giants not facing a running QB at all this year. Pretty sure they face one every single day in practice. Eagles start the first of 3 weeks straight on the road. Hurts looked like shit last year in the meadowlands. Eagles gonna drop one soon, not because they're a bad team, but because thats how the nfl works. I think taking Giants ML, Bears ML the next two weeks gets you plus EV, before a big game on the road at Jerrys World.
Browns/Joe Publics
Have loved the Bengals since the Panthers game.....lol at them laying-7. After the first Browns loss, Zach Taylor realized to let his QB do what he does. Hes healthy, as we saw last week not much drop off from Perrine from Mix. Chase looked good last week. The rapist, was terrible last week. Any team with a pulse would have beat them last week. Will keep buying the runner ups, until they prove me wrong. line off 6, is fun, Bengals aint losing, lay it, tease it, and parlay it.
Titans/Jags, i dont have alot to say here, but I bought it to -3 and its a small SUV if they win. The Jags have covered this number once on the road all year. Against Herbert with one nut and two ribs earlier this year. Lawrence is dog shit, ya the media loved him after the Ravens game, but hes still dog shit. Love the fact Titans off 2 straight losses. Titans for sure not as good as record, but this is a step down in class. They roll here.
Not much changes from first reaction. Revenge for the Bills, buffalo has played a fuck ton of great offenses this year. Look at home scores this year for Buf. look at the game MW played against the Bills in November of last year. Jets wont be able to run the ball. Time to buy the Bills and sell the Jets. this one wont be close, lay it, tease, parlay it. Winner of the game covers.
Vikes/Bars
If you watch MSM, the Vikings are so direspected its unreal. Vikes a 3pt fav before last weekend happened. Now open as Vikes -1, now Leos -2. Every single tom dick and harry "sharp" will be selling you Detroit today. Line is right, every single metric says the line is right. But you have to dig deep and look at what you've seen on the field. Vikes have been sold by the "sharps" for the last 4-5 games.....hows that worked out? Look at the defenses the Vikings have played the last 4-5 weeks. No Darrisaw, no Dantzler. Dantzler such a huge miss, Vikes love zone D, Detroit killing Zone D lately. This comes down to feel. I feel Like detroit has become the "popular" sharp pick. I'll probably buy the 3 as a homer, and finally have the opportunity to cheer for the home team.
Eagles/Giants
Alot of talk about the Giants not facing a running QB at all this year. Pretty sure they face one every single day in practice. Eagles start the first of 3 weeks straight on the road. Hurts looked like shit last year in the meadowlands. Eagles gonna drop one soon, not because they're a bad team, but because thats how the nfl works. I think taking Giants ML, Bears ML the next two weeks gets you plus EV, before a big game on the road at Jerrys World.
Browns/Joe Publics
Have loved the Bengals since the Panthers game.....lol at them laying-7. After the first Browns loss, Zach Taylor realized to let his QB do what he does. Hes healthy, as we saw last week not much drop off from Perrine from Mix. Chase looked good last week. The rapist, was terrible last week. Any team with a pulse would have beat them last week. Will keep buying the runner ups, until they prove me wrong. line off 6, is fun, Bengals aint losing, lay it, tease it, and parlay it.
Titans/Jags, i dont have alot to say here, but I bought it to -3 and its a small SUV if they win. The Jags have covered this number once on the road all year. Against Herbert with one nut and two ribs earlier this year. Lawrence is dog shit, ya the media loved him after the Ravens game, but hes still dog shit. Love the fact Titans off 2 straight losses. Titans for sure not as good as record, but this is a step down in class. They roll here.
…..ONLY….THE…..RAIDERS
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I love swift prob go rush + rec, lot of metrics point to lions d been improving quite a bit since around their bye week, they also blitz and play a lot of man, cousins much better vs 4 man rush and zone plus he 7 tds 7 ints on road this season. On the other hand Vikings play mostly zone, their d been much worse than lions and Goff been picking zine apart, especially at home, agree with st brown and I kinda like chark also.
Who you like on bills today if you had to pick one guy to go off? I been mixing in a little bit of McKenzie and/or Davis in few my dfs tourneys but don’t have any great feel for that game: 10 seems super high, I dunno if they telling me bills blow them out or not?
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
i like this one
Bills-3
Lions+4.5
Bengals ML
+160
Bills-3
Lions+4.5
Bengals ML
+160
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
No chance I'm not on the Vikes today so grats Lions bettors
Today has dogs written all over it. Hate that Houston is a decent sized public dog but I'll be on them too, not sure how you can play a 17 point favorite straight off another demolition in this league and not like Dallas is some historically awesome team.
Today has dogs written all over it. Hate that Houston is a decent sized public dog but I'll be on them too, not sure how you can play a 17 point favorite straight off another demolition in this league and not like Dallas is some historically awesome team.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t usually go across 0 but hard to not like that. I been trying to convince myself to lay it with cincy all week, really think they blow browns out but feels so square.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
One thing to think about these next couple weeks is it's too early to tank for picks, more likely coaches on the hot seat will think about themselves first to either keep their jobs or build their resumes in mid December if they do get canned. Great time of year to look at underachievers imo (Browns, Donks, Chargers as dogs). Could say that about Tomlin as a fave but he's not facing job security issues (same as Harbaugh) so makes that one tough. Bowles is simply a DC and not a HC and guessing after failing twice as HC, now with Brady, he's resigned to knowing who he is.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Think there 5 favs I could play but I won’t play them all.
I think titans prob smash jags today, debating between playing them or just Henry prope, he has had a few awful weeks, gotta think he blows by 88.5 today.
Lean niners also which is pretty much every week, don’t think the qb switch be a huge deal especially at this point when bucs havnt seen a game plan for purdy yet.
I like cincy but I hate the optics w browns looking awful last week and Cincy beating kc, just tough for me to think it only takes Watson 1 week vs a pretty good d, cooper still Vanishes on road, Cincy playing bout as well they can and burrow struggles w browns really makes me feel like this a perfect week to lay waste to them. Really trying to talk myself in to playing this one!
Lions or nothing, I like props as much as side tho.
I’d say fish or nothing for me Sunday night but that prob another prop game for me. Jeff Wilson jr rush total is super low, love running backs vs chargers.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I like the Chargers quite a bit but the Wilson prop still probably hits regardless of the outcome
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Dogs I like this week
Giants+7 Scary to play but divisional dog where Barkley alone could keep them in it- wish he was healthier. Eagles only 1 road blowout week 3 vs Wentz. I think a closely played low scoring game on deck
Lean Ravens but that could be one fugly game. I could see Balty running wild though
Broncos+8.5 scary play but you know everyone will line up to play KC under 10 here. I think a 6 Pt KC win is coming right up.
Bucs+3.5- GTFOH Purdy is gonna cover. Major regression on deck & you know TB D is bringing the max effort. As bad as TB has been the drop off at QB is major! TB has lost 3 in a row otr so I get the line, but I think TB rolls them. Miami was able to throw all over SF lw despite Tua being off target for many of the attempts. Brady should be able to get the ball to Evans/Godwin much more easily this week.
Both Bucs starting safeties are out so maybe SF really tries to take shots but I don't think it ends well for sf. Would like Hicks in but if not Vea should be able to disrupt the run game enough to put the pressure on Purdy.
Chargers +3.5- MiAmi Won'T LoSe TwO iN A rOw- Tua had a rough game lw & Derwin James likely out is scary, but this is a must have game for SD. Herbert finally has his weapons all back Do or die give me these bums to keep their hopes alive one more week.
Cards= full fade mode on the Pats
Giants+7 Scary to play but divisional dog where Barkley alone could keep them in it- wish he was healthier. Eagles only 1 road blowout week 3 vs Wentz. I think a closely played low scoring game on deck
Lean Ravens but that could be one fugly game. I could see Balty running wild though
Broncos+8.5 scary play but you know everyone will line up to play KC under 10 here. I think a 6 Pt KC win is coming right up.
Bucs+3.5- GTFOH Purdy is gonna cover. Major regression on deck & you know TB D is bringing the max effort. As bad as TB has been the drop off at QB is major! TB has lost 3 in a row otr so I get the line, but I think TB rolls them. Miami was able to throw all over SF lw despite Tua being off target for many of the attempts. Brady should be able to get the ball to Evans/Godwin much more easily this week.
Both Bucs starting safeties are out so maybe SF really tries to take shots but I don't think it ends well for sf. Would like Hicks in but if not Vea should be able to disrupt the run game enough to put the pressure on Purdy.
Chargers +3.5- MiAmi Won'T LoSe TwO iN A rOw- Tua had a rough game lw & Derwin James likely out is scary, but this is a must have game for SD. Herbert finally has his weapons all back Do or die give me these bums to keep their hopes alive one more week.
Cards= full fade mode on the Pats
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Chargers be better off losing and getting that coached fired already. I expect them to continue being inconsistent trash but they should def start putting up more points as Herbert starting to finally have healthy legit wrs. They still won’t stop anyone and they will prob struggle to protect him late in games but yea if they start giving out more than a fg w them I’d be interested.
Agree w browns going forward as Watson starts shaking the rust, just not this week.
I’m super tempted to play donks today after being flexed out of Sunday night and hearing how awful they are. I could def see them covering some bigger spreads cause the d remains good:
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
You gotta remember these players for the most part don't care about the coach getting fired since there's no guarantee they have a job next year. Kinda my point, this week, next week you can see coaches going rogue to at least look competent for a future gig. Players don't get the luxury of doing what's best for the organization for the most part.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I don't know how in the world you can bet on Houston. I told myself I would fade them every road game to end the season, & yeah this one is high. But they are scary bad. Miami could have won by 30+ if they wanted. Browns gave them every opp to score tds and they couldn't. Boys will be up 17+ by the half easily, & they are having fun running up the score rn.
I think Pierce td or rushing prop is the best option if you want to do anything fade the Boys related. He's the only way they will keep this within the number imo. Maybe team total but god that offense is a wreck
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Nothing to do with players caring, they just bad cause he a awful coach. I dunno how so many ppl still believe in chargers? I feel you if they catching fg or more but I don’t expect them to start winning w any consistency until they get a real coach. I know the roster is good and now the wrs healthy but I still think they be the same tend they been the last 2 years, one you can’t trust to win a game.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Oh it's not a bet on Houston, it's a straight fade of the Cowboys after that beatdown of a bunch of scrubs. Can't see any reason to believe that kind of thing happens in b2b weeks in this league regardless the competition.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Lovie can def ugly this game up and stay within the number. I like houston a lot better now that they switched back to mills, I didn’t really understand the change, I know he was kinda awful at times but still think he gives them a better chance. They are super depleted at wr now tho, I just saw the other day nico collins out, I don’t even know who the fuck is catching balls for them this week? Scary but it def houston or nothing. You would think pierce have a better day today; no way cowboys d is super intense or they play buttoned up today, that be shocking I agree!!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm expecting a very ugly game there, same with NYJ and Bills. Difference is I think the Bills can cover 10 in a mucked up game but not playing it because betting a favorite in a perceived shitty game seems like three hours of hell.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
IJS I wouldn't take the Texans otr +20 right now. They have to score tds to cover you figure Dallas Low Low Low end is putting up 24-26 (TT 30.5) even in that scenario they likely have to score a TD+ to cover. I don't trust them to score 10 rn.
I'm leaning Boys tt o16.5 1sth.
I'm leaning Boys tt o16.5 1sth.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I pretty much feel same about giants as houston, there no great reason on paper but I agree it the right play. Is barkley playing? Giants have no damn wrs either.
I think fish run game gonna be a problem for chargers, it’s my disdain for chargers coaching why I would play fish not anything to do with them losing 2 in a row or not, does anyone look at them as a team who can’t lose 2 in a row? I just won’t ever put trust in chargers the way others seem to until this staff replaced. This should be good prop game tho, if you get +3.5 I couldn’t argue. I wouldn’t lay that, I won’t bet either side, might use fish in pick contest be all.
Agree w cards, hate their overall culture but they should be able to score, hoody usually struggles w mobile qbs, Hollywood and Hopkins healthy, can’t see pats matching points. Cards DC cracked me up saying pats offense looks like a DC calling plays; lol.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I agree, if this game is close, pierce hits his props for sure
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I wanna like jets but it scares me they giving what most of us see as a pretty solid team +10. I guess I thought same think on thanksgiving and bills barely escaped. I be really shocked if jets d got lit up. I think bills covering would be a Mike white implosion, I loved the switch but just cause he way better than Wilson doesn’t mean I completely trust him yet.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Chargers still beat up on the oline ain’t they? I have no doubt Hebert and co will put up points, I’m as confident in that as I am Miami running the ball plus having success in air. If It close late I trust fish coaching staff more, I think fish pass rush will get home when needed. But I’m not super confident cause I don’t like the b2b west coast and not real interested laying points cause it feels mostly coin flippy to me as in it will be a game decided late by few plays, I just like one coaching staff and despise the other, imo that the only difference between fish and chargers.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Payton prefers that job but very hard to see Spanos give him what he wants. Probably see him here and if he's given some kind of GM role...it would be interesting.
Think locally people here believe both Kliff and Keim will be gone even after their extensions last year which opens the door for a lot of things
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d say that is almost a certainty, his number can’t even be that high after the last few weeks? 63.5? There no path to covering where he doesn’t get 20+ carries. That prob is the way to go.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t think they will pay whatever they have to fire this clown staff and bring Peyton in, just would be awesome if they would! They pretty much always go cheap w coach, if they slip into playoff spot they prob keep this idiot, if they don’t maybe they fire him and hire another unproven dude, maybe they luck out this time tho? Prob not, lol. They prob hire seattle oc or some shit! Peyton to your squad be good also! I’m not sure he has any interest in dealing w Kyler tho, just from way I’ve seen his facial expressions when he talks bout them, lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Am I crazy to really like panthers today? I like their d, actually find myself using them a ton in dfs, I think foreman can go for 100+ on seattle run d. Dunno who the hell running the ball for seattle today? Could be a bad geno day for once? Surely he has one of those in him?
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