Week 12 in the FCS (final reg ssn week and playoff selection)

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Thursday, November 16

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
MVSU at Alabama A&M	7:00pm	YouTube
Nicholls at Southeastern La.	7:00pm	ESPN+

Saturday, November 18

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
Abilene Christian at Texas A&M	12:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+
Bucknell at Marist	12:00pm	ESPN+
Chattanooga at 8 Alabama	12:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+
Dartmouth at Brown	12:00pm	ESPN+/NESN
Drake at Butler	12:00pm	FloFootball
Duquesne at Merrimack	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Eastern Illinois at Robert Morris	12:00pm	ESPN+
Furman at Wofford	12:00pm	ESPN+
Georgetown at Holy Cross	12:00pm	ESPN+
Harvard at Yale	12:00pm	ESPNU
Lafayette at Lehigh	12:00pm	ESPN+
Post at Wagner	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Sacred Heart at UConn	12:00pm	WFSB
Saint Francis U. at CCSU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
San Diego at Stetson	12:00pm	ESPN+
Western Carolina at VMI	12:00pm	ESPN+
Campbell at North Carolina A&T	1:00pm	FloFootball
Charleston Sou. at Gardner-Webb	1:00pm	ESPN+
Columbia at Cornell	1:00pm	ESPN+
Fordham at Colgate	1:00pm	ESPN+
Hampton at Elon	1:00pm	FloFootball/WMYV
LIU at Stonehill	1:00pm	NEC Front Row
Maine at New Hampshire	1:00pm	FloFootball
Monmouth at UAlbany	1:00pm	FloFootball
Morehead State at Presbyterian	1:00pm	ESPN+
Morgan State at Howard	1:00pm	ESPN+
Princeton at Penn	1:00pm	ESPN+
Rhode Island at Towson	1:00pm	FloFootball
Richmond at William & Mary	1:00pm	FloFootball
Southeast Missouri at Bryant	1:00pm	ESPN+
The Citadel at ETSU	1:00pm	ESPN+
UT Martin at Samford	1:00pm	ESPN+
Villanova at Delaware	1:00pm	FloFootball/DSN
Central Arkansas at Austin Peay	2:00pm	ESPN+
Delaware State at NC Central	2:00pm	ESPN+
Illinois State at North Dakota	2:00pm	ESPN+/Midco Sports
Indiana State at Southern Illinois	2:00pm	ESPN+
Montana State at Montana	2:00pm	ESPN+/Scripps/MTN TV
Portland State at Northern Colorado	2:00pm	ESPN+
SC State at Norfolk State	2:00pm	ESPN+
South Dakota at Western Illinois	2:00pm	ESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at Eastern Kentucky	2:00pm	ESPN+
Valparaiso at St. Thomas	2:00pm	Midco Sports Plus / FOX 9+
Youngstown State at Murray State	2:00pm	ESPN+
Alabama State at Prairie View A&M	3:00pm	ESPN+
Alcorn State at Jackson State	3:00pm	ESPN+
UAPB at Texas Southern	3:00pm	HBCU GO
Missouri State at South Dakota State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Tennessee Tech at Tennessee State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Texas A&M-Commerce at Northwestern State	3:00pm	ESPN+
UIW at HCU	3:00pm	ESPN+
Bethune-Cookman vs Florida A&M (in Orlando, FL)	3:30pm	ESPNU
McNeese at Lamar	4:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Arizona at Eastern Washington	4:00pm	ESPN+/SWX
North Dakota State at Northern Iowa	5:00pm	ESPN+/ABC ND
Sacramento State at UC Davis	5:00pm	ESPN+/KQCA My58
North Alabama at 4 Florida State	6:30pm	The CW
Dayton at Davidson	7:00pm	TV TBA
Idaho State at Idaho	7:00pm	ESPN+
Weber State at Cal Poly	8:00pm	ESPN+
Southern Utah at Utah Tech	9:00pm	ESPN+

 

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BIG SKY

FARMINGTON, Utah (Nov. 12, 2023) — Weber State knocked off No. 4 Idaho 31-29 on Saturday, setting up a winner-take-all Brawl of the Wild between Montana and Montana State next week. Below is a recap of Week 11 action around Big Sky football.

Despite trailing 10-0 to start the game, the Wildcats stormed back to upend the fourth-ranked Vandals and move their record to 5-5 overall on the year. Freshman quarterback Richie Munoz passed for 152 yards and a score, while the running back duo of Kris Jackson and Adrian Cormier combined for 132 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

With the Weber State win, Idaho falls to 5-2 in conference play.

Montana and Montana State each won their games on Saturday, as the pair improved to 6-1 in league play and will have a winner-take-all game next week for the Big Sky football title.

Montana won 34-7 at Portland State, thanks to nearly 200 yards of total offense and three rushing touchdowns from reining Big Sky Offensive Player of the Week Clifton McDowell.

Sean Chambers scored five touchdowns in Montana State's 57-14 win over Eastern Washington, as the Bobcat quarterback had all five scores and 194 yards of total offense come in the first half.

Lan Larison rushed for 264 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday, as the Idaho native gave Dan Hawkins and UC Davis a 21-14 win over Cody Hawkins and Idaho State in Pocatello. The Aggies improved to 6-4 overall on the year, as UC Davis stays in playoff contention heading into Week 12.

Sacramento State, who is the Week 12 opponent for UC Davis, won 41-30 over Cal Poly on Saturday afternoon. Hornet quarterback Carson Conklin passed for 313 yards, with the freshman tossing three touchdowns and one interception in the win.

Elsewhere, Northern Arizona won 28-7 over visiting Northern Colorado, as the Lumberjacks won their fourth game of the season and the first over a non-ranked opponent. Hendrix Johnson became NAU's all-time reception leader in the win, with the wideout now owning 202 for his career.

Follow all things #BigSkyFB on Twitter and Instagram at @BigSkyFB. Follow the Big Sky Conference (@BigSkyConf) on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Blue Sky, and TikTok for all the latest news around the league and use the hashtag #ExperienceElevated.

Big Sky Football Week 11 Scores
Saturday, Nov. 11
FCS Rankings: Stats Perform

#5 Montana State 57, Eastern Washington 14
Read Full MSU Recap

Weber State 31, #4 Idaho 29
Read Full Weber State Recap

Northern Arizona 28, Northern Colorado 7
Read Full NAU Recap

#9 Sacramento State 41, Cal Poly 30
Read Full Sac State Recap

UC Davis 21, Idaho State 14
Read Full UC Davis Recap

#3 Montana 34, Portland State 10
Read Full Montana Recap

BIG SOUTH / OVC

The next-to-last weekend of the regular season saw a full slate of Conference games. UT Martin clinched at least a share of the inaugural Big South-OVC Championship with a win over Southeast Missouri. Gardner-Webb, who shutout Tennessee Tech, can grab a share of the crown with a win next week. In other action Eastern Illinois, Robert Morris and Bryant scored Association wins.

#16/21 UT MARTIN 41, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 14 | BOX SCORE
UT Martin clinched at least a share of the inaugural Big South-OVC Championship with a convincing 41-14 victory over Southeast Missouri. It marks the third-straight Conference crown for the Skyhawks. UTM rushed for 314 yards with Narkel Leflore (147 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Sam Franklin (123 yards) leading the way.

GARDNER-WEBB 35, TENNESSEE TECH 0 | BOX SCORE
Big plays in the first half pushed Gardner-Webb over Tennessee Tech 35-0 on Saturday. Jaylen King threw three first half touchdowns and the Runnin' Bulldogs had two pick sixes to account for all the scoring in the first 30 minutes. On the third play of the game, Jamari Brown picked off a pass from Jordyn Potts, scoring from 33 yards out to give Gardner-Webb an early lead. Later in the half Ja'Kai Young picked off a pass and returned the ball 23 yards for a touchdown. GWU can clinch a share of the Big South-OVC title and earn the AQ to the FCS Playoffs with a victory next week.

ROBERT MORRIS 14, CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 12 | BOX SCORE
The RMU football team picked up their second straight win of the season as they slipped past the Charleston Southern Buccaneers, 14-12. It marked the first back-to-back wins for the team since the 2019 season. The Colonials defense was the unsung hero in the second half as they held the Buccaneers scoreless on four separate possessions to help the RMU offense work their way back and take the lead. The home defense held Charleston Southern to 59 total yards in the third quarter as these stops were critical in order for the Colonials to come back in the game.

EASTERN ILLINOIS 30, TENNESSEE STATE 17 | BOX SCORE
For the second time this season MJ Flowers cracked the 200-yard mark in a game as the redshirt freshman running back rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns during Eastern Illinois 30-17 win over Tennessee State on Saturday afternoon. Flowers scored a pair of touchdowns in the opening quarter before breaking loose for the other two scores in the second half helping EIU improve to 7-3 overall, 3-2 in the Big South-OVC.

BRYANT 38, LINDENWOOD 3 | BOX SCORE
The Bryant University football team defeated Lindenwood 38-3 in the road victory on Saturday. Zevi Eckhaus threw for 367 yards and four TDs. Anthony Frederick caught three of those touchdowns and added eight catches for 131 yards. Jalen Powell recorded a receiving TD, and Matthew Prochaska had seven catches for 82 yards. Olatunde Mkparu and Sean Hunt tallied an interception, and Christopher Eaton Jr. forced a fumble. Dontae Lunan, Kenny Dyson Jr., and Beau Shugarts registered a sack.

CAA

Four teams - UAlbany, Delaware, Richmond and Villanova - remain tied for first place in the CAA entering the season's final week after they each picked up victories on Saturday. New Hampshire, Rhode Island and William & Mary also earned wins in close games.

Villanova 33, Towson 10
Box Score

Connor Watkins threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring passes of 79 and 63 yards to Rayjoun Pringle, as Villanova (8-2, 6-1 CAA) rolled past Towson (4-6, 3-4 CAA), 33-10. The two TD’s to Pringle, who finished with five catches for 180 yards, put the Wildcats ahead by 17 in the second quarter and a 19-yard scoring reception by Jaylen Sanchez made it 24-0 at halftime. VU added a 4-yard TD run by TD Ayo-Durojaiye in the third quarter before the Tigers reached the end zone on a 75-yard Christopher Watkins run with 7:10 left.

Jalen Jackson added 85 yards on the ground as VU finished with 555 yards of offense. The Wildcats’ defense held Towson to 211 yards and recorded a third-quarter safety. Daniel Raymond made 13 tackles and 2.5 TFL’s for the Towson defense and Shane Hartzell had seven stops for Villanova.

Delaware 45, Campbell 7
Box Score

Ryan O’Connor passed for 246 yards and four touchdowns to lead Delaware (8-2, 6-1 CAA) to a 45-7 victory at Campbell (4-6, 3-4 CAA). The Blue Hens took a commanding 24-0 halftime advantage following scoring passes of 51 yards to Jourdan Townsend and 17 yards to Joshua Youngblood and a 100-yard pick six by Khalil Dawsey. O’Connor added third-quarter TD tosses to Youngblood (1 yard) and Braden Brose (12 yards) to extend the lead to 38-0 before Campbell got on the board on a 3-yard run by Hajj-Malik Williams.

Townsend finished with five catches for 92 yards. Jackson Taylor and Keeno Arrington made eight tackles apiece for a Blue Hens’ defense that held Campbell to 288 total yards, while Dawsey tallied two interceptions. Williams passed for 151 yards, with Ezeriah Anderson making six catches for 84 yards.

UAlbany 38, Stony Brook 20
Box Score

Reese Poffenbarger threw for 247 yards and four touchdowns as UAlbany (8-3, 6-1 CAA) claimed the Golden Apple with a 38-20 win over Stony Brook (0-10, 0-8 CAA). Griffin Woodell added 136 yards and a TD on the ground as the Great Danes piled up 430 yards of offense.

Stony Brook jumped on top early courtesy of a 49-yard pick six from Clarens Legagneur, but Woodell’s 4-yard TD run tied it up at 7-7. The Great Danes led 17-13 late in the second quarter when Julian Hicks had a 14-yard TD reception to extend the margin to 11 at the half. UA pulled away in the second half as Poffenbarger fired TD passes to Levi Wentz (28 yards) and Hicks (13 yards). SBU added a late score on a 22-yard grab by freshman Anthony Johnson. Brevin Easton had 89 receiving yards and a TD for UA, while Dylan Kelly recorded a team-high 14 tackles. For SBU, Daron Bryden was 21-of-31 passing for 208 yards and a TD and Aidan Kaler tallied a team-high 10 tackles.

Richmond 38, Elon 24
Box Score

Quarterback Kyle Wickersham passed for 169 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 130 yards and a TD to power Richmond (7-3, 6-1 CAA) over Elon (5-5, 5-2 CAA), 38-24. The Spiders finished with 235 yards on the ground as Savon Smith added 70 yards and 2 TD’s.

The game was tied at 7-7 following the first quarter, but the Spiders broke loose with 21 second-quarter points. Connor Deveney caught a 9-yard TD pass and Smith followed with a 1-yard scoring run and 12-yard TD catch to make it 28-7 at halftime. Elon cut into the deficit on a 42-yard TD run by Jalen Hampton in the third quarter, but Smith’s 5-yard TD run with 2:36 left sealed the contest. Tristan Wheeler made a team-high 11 tackles for a UR defense that registered four sacks. Elon’s Matthew Downing threw for 281 yards and 2 TD’s, with Jordan Bonner making six catches for 122 yards.

New Hampshire 31, Monmouth 24
Box Score

Reserve freshman quarterback Matt Vezza threw a 38-yard touchdown strike to Myles Thomason for his first career completion with 2:18 to play, lifting New Hampshire (5-5, 3-4 CAA) past Monmouth (4-6, 3-4 CAA), 31-24. The Hawks led 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, but the Wildcats tied it on a 3-yard TD catch by Colby Ramshaw. Just 11 seconds later, Monmouth went back on top, 24-17, as Dymere Miller broke loose on a 75-yard TD grab. UNH drew even once again on a 4-yard Isaac Seide run with 11:04 left, before Vezza capped a 10-play, 82-yard drive with his big throw. The Hawks drove to the UNH 32 in the closing seconds but couldn’t convert a Hail Mary pass as the clock expired.

Miller finished with 11 catches for 333 yards and 2 TD’s, setting a Monmouth record and posting the 2nd-most receiving yards in CAA history. Quarterback Marquez McCray was 21-of-32 passing for 402 yards and 2 TD’s. For UNH, Max Brosmer threw for 239 yards and 2 TD’s and Josiah Silver paced the Wildcats’ defense with five tackles, 2.0 sacks and 3.0 TFL’s.

William & Mary 31, Hampton 10
Box Score

William & Mary (6-4, 4-3 CAA) scored 21 points in a three-minute stretch of the fourth quarter to battle past Hampton (5-5, 3-4 CAA). The game was tied 10-10 midway through the final period when the Tribe’s Quinn Osborne picked off a pass. On the next play, JT Mayo caught a 76-yard TD pass to put W&M on top. On the first play of the Pirates’ next possession, W&M linebacker Kevin Jarrell returned an interception 40 yards for a score to make it 24-10. The Tribe defense came up big again as David Roulley recorded an interception, and four plays later, W&M quarterback Tyler Hughes had a 6-yard TD run to put the game in control.

Hughes, making his first career start, passed for 145 yards and 2 TD’s to lead the W&M offense. Jarrell finished with 10 tackles and two forced fumbles in addition to the interception. Hampton quarterback Chris Zellous threw for 159 yards and ran for 77, while Romon Copeland had seven receptions for 111 yards and a TD. Qwahsin Townsel had seven tackles and a forced fumble for the Pirates defense.

Rhode Island 31, North Carolina A&T 24
Box Score

Ja’Den McKenzie rushed for a career-high 233 yards and three touchdowns, including a game-winning 4-yard score with 2:55 to go, as Rhode Island (6-4, 4-3 CAA) defeated North Carolina A&T (1-9, 0-7 CAA). McKenzie scored from 39 yards out late in the second quarter and added a 30-yard TD run near the end of the third quarter to put the Rams ahead 24-10. North Carolina A&T battled back in the fourth quarter, getting a 1-yard TD run from Kenji Christian and a 14-yard TD gallop from quarterback Eli Brickhandler to tie the game at 24-24 with 6:15 remaining. However the Rams responded with a 73-yard drive capped by McKenzie’s 4-yard run and a fumble forced by Brent Jackson and recovered by Malachi Burby sealed the win.

Kasim Hill threw for 137 yards and a TD, with Kahtero Summers making three catches for 69 yards and a TD for the URI offense. Jackson and Jarrett Martin each had 10 tackles. For A&T, Brickhandler passed for 161 yards and a TD and ran for 88 yards and a TD, while Christian ran for 97 yards and a TD. Kade Moledor contributed 12 tackles and an interception for the Aggies defense.


IVY

PRINCETON, N.J. -- In a day that continued with the 2023 theme of closely contested matchups, it was No. 19 Harvard that earned a dramatic triple overtime 25-23 win over Penn and score the most significant win — clinching at least a share of the 2023 Ivy League title.

The Crimson scored on a two-point conversion in the third overtime to clinch what was a back-and-forth contest with the Quakers. It is their 18th Ivy League title all-time and first since 2015. Harvard will look to clinch the outright title next weekend when it visits Yale on Saturday at noon.

Yale and Dartmouth remain in the running for a share of the Ivy League title heading into next weekend's final games of the 2023 season. Yale would clinch a share with a win over its rivals while the Big Green would need a Yale win and a victory of their own vs. Brown.

Here is how Week 9 played out:

YALE 36, PRINCETON 28 (2OT)
12 p.m. // Princeton, N.J. // Powers Field at Princeton Stadium

• Yale kept its Ivy League title hopes alive with a 36-28 double overtime win at Princeton. The Bulldogs can earn a share of the Ivy League title by defeating Harvard next weekend in New Haven.
• Joshua Pitsenberger's three touchdowns on 131 yards rushing led the Bulldogs.
• Wande Owens broke up Princeton passes in both overtime periods.

BROWN 21, COLUMBIA 14 (OT)
12:30 p.m. // New York, N.Y. // Robert K. Kraft Field at Lawrence A. Wien Stadium

• Brown quarterback Jake Wilcox threw for 265 yards and a touchdown on the afternoon.
• Graham Walker caught an 11-yard pass in overtime to clinch the victory.
• The Bears level their Ivy League record at 3-3 on the season, sitting in a tie for fourth place heading into the final weekend.
• JJ Jenkins had 70 yards receiving and two touchdowns for Columbia.

NO. 19 HARVARD 25, PENN 23 (3OT)
1 p.m. // Cambridge, Mass. // Harvard Stadium

• Harvard earned at least a share of the Ivy League title and its 18th conference crown all-time with a triple overtime win over Penn.
• Cooper Barkate had 125 yards receiving and a touchdown for the victorious Crimson.
• Harvard will travel to Yale next weekend and would clinch the league title outright with a win over the rival Bulldogs.
• Malachi Hosley ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns for the Quakers.

DARTMOUTH 30, CORNELL 14
1:30 p.m. // Hanover, N.H. // Memorial Stadium

• Dartmouth kept its Ivy League title hopes alive with a 30-14 win over Cornell. The Big Green will need to defeat Brown next weekend and hope for a Yale win over Harvard to earn a share of the league crown.
• Nick Howard ran for 108 yards and had three rushing touchdowns for Dartmouth.
• The Big Green racked up 372 yards of offense and held Cornell to just 266 yards in the game.

MEAC

Norfolk State 44, Delaware State 21

The Spartans picked up their first conference win of the season en route to scoring their most points of the season with a 44-21 win over the Hornets of Delaware State.

Norfolk State amassed 459 yards of total offense on Saturday, including 285 on the ground. NSU quarterback Cameron Sapp completed 8-of-12 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns, adding a rushing score as well. The Spartans Kevon King rushed for over 100 yards, while Andre Pegues caught three passes for 100 yards. Terron Mallory paced the NSU defense recording a program-high three interceptions in the game.

Aaron Angelos threw for 133 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions for the Hornets. Marquis Gillis rushed for 84 total yards on 20 attempts with two DSU touchdowns. Rahkeem Smith made three catches for 67 yards to lead Delaware State’s receiving corps.

BOX SCORE | RECAP

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Morgan State 20, South Carolina State 17

The Bears got on the scoreboard first on a rushing touchdown from Tahj Smith in the second quarter. The Bulldogs hit back scoring two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes of the first half to take a 14-6 lead into halftime. MSU came out of the break scoring a touchdown off a 53-yard run from J.J. Davis to pull within a point, 14-13, of SCSU. S.C. State put a little room between them and Morgan State with a field goal with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. MSU answered with a 73-yard kickoff return from Jordan Toles giving the Bears a 20-17 lead with 4:44 to play. Morgan State held off S.C. State for the victory.

Morgan State’s Tahj Smith threw for 86 yards completing five-of-14 passes. J.J. Davis ran for 108 yards on 15 attempts collecting one touchdown score.

On the Bulldogs side Corey Fields, Jr., threw for 54 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Josh Shaw led the rushing game for S.C. State collecting 70 yards on 16 attempts.

BOX SCORE | RECAP

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Howard 50, No. 7 North Carolina Central 20

The Bison of Howard completed the upset over No. 7 North Carolina Central winning 50-20 over the Eagles. HU opened the game with the only score of the first quarter to take a 7-0 lead into the second. Howard continued to pull ahead scoring a second touchdown, the first score of the second quarter before giving up a touchdown to NCCU who put the score at 14-7. The Bison pulled ahead 21-7 before giving up a second touchdown just after the two-minute warning. Howard scored one more time before the halftime break heading into the intermission with a 28-14 lead.

In the second half, Howard scored two touchdowns before North Carolina Central found another scoring play. Howard scored once in the third quarter and the first touchdown of the fourth before N.C. Central scored their final touchdown near the 10-minute mark. The Bison closed out the game with one last scoring drive to put the final score at 50-20.

Howard’s quarterback Quinton Williams threw for 277 yards completing 23 of 33 passes for three touchdowns. Running back Jarett Hunter ran for 113 yards on 14 attempts with two rushing touchdowns. Howard’s wide receiver Kasey Hawthorne caught 114 yards on six receptions with two touchdowns.

N.C. Central’s quarterback Davius Richard was held to just 77 yards passing with one touchdown through the air and ran for 91 yards on 12 attempts with one running touchdowns.

BOX SCORE | RECAP

 

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MVFC

Saturday, November 11, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 11/11/2023	Murray State 7	Illinois State 44	Final	Normal, Ill. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	South Dakota State 34	Youngstown State 0	Final	Youngstown, Ohio (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	North Dakota 10	South Dakota 14	Final	Vermillion, SD (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Western Illinois 6	Indiana State 27	Final	Terre Haute, Ind. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Northern Iowa 16	Missouri State 35	Final	Springfield, Mo. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Southern Illinois 10	North Dakota State 34	Final	Fargo, N.D. (Conf.)	Box Score

NEC

Things got interesting in the Northeast Conference title race after Week 11. A Duquesne home loss to Stonehill coupled with Merrimack's win over visiting Central Connecticut set the scene for a Week 12 regular-season finale between the Dukes and Warriors that will determine the 2023 champion and recipient of league's AQ to the NCAA FCS Playoffs. That contest will be played at Duane Stadium in North Andover, MA. In other Week 11 action, LIU used a huge second half to run away with a 49-14 win and improve to 4-2 in NEC play with its third straight victory.

Click here for Boxscores / Statistics

STONEHILL 33, DUQUESNE 28
Duquesne (6-4, 5-1 NEC) clawed back from a 17-0 deficit and led, 28-27, in the fourth quarter, but Stonehill (4-5, 3-3 NEC) spoiled the Dukes’ triumphant comeback inside the final minute with a 21-yard touchdown run by senior Chris Domercant. Spoiling Duquesne’s chance to clinch the NEC’s AQ to the FCS Playoffs in Pittsburgh, the Skyhawks improve to 2-0 all-time against the Dukes.

LIU 49, WAGNER 14
LIU (4-6, 4-2 NEC) poured on the offense after halftime with 35-unanswerd points to break open a 14-14 game and score the program’s largest margin of victory with a 49-14 home win over Wagner (3-7, 3-4 NEC). Six different players reached the end zone to pace the Sharks, who enter next weekend’s season finale at Stonehill riding a three-game winning streak.

MERRIMACK 35, CENTRAL CONNECTICUT 24.
Merrimack (5-5, 4-2 NEC) made things interesting in the NEC title race with a 35-24 win over visiting Central Connecticut (3-7, 1-5 NEC) in North Andover, MA. Junior Malakai Anthony completed 11-of-15 passes for 190 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions to pace the Warriors, who remain in contention for the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA FCS Playoffs with Saturday’s win and Duquesne’s loss to Stonehill.

PATRIOT

AT NO. 23/25 LAFAYETTE LEOPARDS (8-2, 4-1 PL) 24, FORDHAM RAMS (6-4, 2-3 PL) 16
Fisher Stadium/Easton, Pa. 12:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
EASTON, Pa. – Sophomore running back Jamar Curtis rushed for 204 yards and one touchdown to lead No. 23/25 Lafayette to a 24-16 victory over Fordham at Fisher Stadium on Saturday.
*Curtis returned to the lineup after missing last week’s loss vs. Colgate to post his second 200-yard rushing performance of the season. His 72-yard rush in the fourth quarter set up his three-yard score, the Leopards’ final touchdown of the day, to seal the win.
*Lafayette sophomore quarterback Dean DeNobile completed 16-of-21 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown pass. He also rushed for a touchdown.
*Leopards’ sophomore wide receiver Elijah Steward caught a seven-yard touchdown pass from DeNobile early in the second quarter. He finished with seven catches for 77 yards.
*Senior linebacker Billy Shaeffer posted a team-leading eight tackles and a half tackle for loss (TFL). Freshman defensive lineman Jaylon Joseph finished with three tackles, 1.5 TFLs, one sack and a quarterback hurry.
*Fordham junior quarterback C.J. Montes completed 23-of-34 passes for 253 yards and one touchdown.
*Graduate student wide receiver Garrett Cody caught eight passes for 96 yards, and classmate MJ Wright caught seven passes for 86 yards for the Rams.
*Junior running back Julius Loughridge finished with 56 rushing yards on 18 carries and caught three passes for 31 yards and one touchdown.
*Fordham junior linebacker James Conway made a game-high 10 tackles and a half TFL. Senior defensive lineman Eli Armstrong posted 2.0 TFLs.
RECAPS: FORDHAM | LAFAYETTE

AT ARMY WEST POINT BLACK KNIGHTS (4-6) 17, NO. 22/rv HOLY CROSS CRUSADERS (6-4, 4-1 PL) 14
West Point, N.Y./Michie Stadium Noon (CBS Sports Network)
BOX SCORE
WEST POINT, N.Y. – Senior quarterback Matthew Sluka threw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes, but No. 22 Holy Cross’s comeback attempt fell short in a 17-14 loss to Army West Point at Michie Stadium.
*Sluka completed 16-of-23 passes for 156 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He also rushed 37 times for 171 yards in his return after a two-game absence.
*Senior wide receiver Jalen Coker caught seven passes for 54 yards and his FCS-leading 14th touchdown reception of the season.
*Coker’s eight-yard touchdown catch came with 2:05 remaining in the game to bring the Crusaders within three points.
*Crusaders’ junior wide receiver Justin Shorter caught three passes for 48 yards, including a 24-yard touchdown reception early in the fourth quarter.
*Holy Cross junior linebacker Frankie Monte made a career-high 13 tackles, including nine solo stops.
*Junior safety Curtis Harris-Lopez made five tackles and 1.5 TFLs for the Crusaders.
RECAP: HOLY CROSS

GEORGETOWN HOYAS (5-5, 3-2 PL) 50, AT BUCKNELL BISON (3-7, 1-5 PL) 47 (OT)
Christy Mathewson - Memorial Stadium/Lewisburg, Pa. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
LEWISBURG, Pa. – Graduate student running back Joshua Stakely plunged in from the one-yard line in overtime to lift Georgetown to a 50-47 victory over Bucknell, overcoming the Bison’s fourth-quarter comeback.
*Hoyas’ fifth-year quarterback Tyler Knoop completed 27-of-38 passes for 361 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.
*Knoop threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to sophomore wide receiver Jimmy Kibble with 1:45 remaining in regulation to tie the score at 44 after the Bison had scored 29 straight points to take a 44-37 lead.
*Kibble caught eight passes for 179 yards and two scores, including a 95-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter that gave GU a 37-15 lead.
*Junior wide receiver Brock Biestek caught six passes for 70 yards and a touchdown for the Hoyas’ offense.
*The Hoyas also received touchdowns on a one-yard run from junior running back Naieem Kearney in the first quarter and a 23-yard scoring reception from sophomore wide receiver Nicholas Dunneman in the second quarter.
*Senior linebacker David Ealey III led the Hoyas with 10 tackles, 1.5 TFLs and an interception. Sophomore safety Jaden Dugger added three tackles and two sacks.
*Bucknell junior quarterback Ralph Rucker completed 20-of-41 passes for 296 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.
*Bison sophomore wide receivers Derrick Anderson Jr. and Eric Weatherly and senior wide receiver Christian Tait all caught touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.
*Junior running back Rushawn Baker rushed for 97 yards and three touchdowns on 17 carries. Baker had touchdown runs of two and 38 yards in the third quarter to help set up the Bison comeback.
*Junior cornerback Ethan Robinson posted a team-leading eight tackles and three pass breakups.
*Senior defensive lineman Tyler Alston posted six tackles and two sacks, while junior safety Alex Smith Jr. and junior linebacker Brad Jamison both recorded interceptions.
RECAPS: GEORGETOWN | BUCKNELL

AT COLGATE RAIDERS (5-5, 3-2 PL) 37, LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS (2-8, 1-4 PL) 21
Crown Field at Andy Kerr Stadium/Hamilton, N.Y. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
HAMILTON, N.Y. – Freshman quarterback Jake Stearney completed 28-of-34 passes for 360 yards and three touchdowns to lead Colgate to a 37-21 victory over Lehigh at Andy Kerr Stadium.
*In his first collegiate start, Stearney threw three third-quarter touchdown passes after engineering a pair of long scoring drives in the second quarter to help the Raiders pick up their fifth win in their last six games.
*Sophomore wide receiver Treyvhon Saunders caught eight passes for 132 yards and a touchdown, while classmate Brady Hutchison caught seven passes for 83 yards and a score for the Raiders.
*Colgate senior running back Jaedon Henry and junior running back Brendan Cassamajor both rushed for one-yard touchdowns in the second quarter.
*Fifth-year linebacker Tyler Flick recorded eight tackles, 2.0 TFLs and a forced fumble, while senior linebacker Christian Sweeney added five tackles and a fumble recovery for the Raiders.
*Lehigh senior quarterback Dante Perri completed 10-of-21 passes for 146 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdown passes.
*Perri found senior wide receiver Connor Kennedy on a 32-yard strike at the 9:58 mark in the fourth quarter before completing a 13-yard touchdown pass to first-year wide receiver Mason Humphrey with 3:44 remaining in the game.
*Kennedy finished with a career-high 126 receiving yards on seven receptions.
*First-year running back Luke Yoder rushed for 76 yards and a third-quarter touchdown on 13 carries. Yoder has found the end zone at least once in the Mountain Hawks’ last three games.
*Lehigh sophomore defensive back Nick Peltekian posted 14 tackles, while sophomore linebacker Tyler Ochojski added 12 tackles and a half TFL.
RECAPS: LEHIGH | COLGATE

PIONEER

Week 11 of the Pioneer Football League season saw Drake clinch a share of the regular-season title with a victory against Presbyterian. Davidson, with its loss at Morehead State, and St. Thomas, by virtue of its overtime win at San Diego, end the week tied for second in the league standings. The league’s automatic qualifying spot remains up for grabs between Drake and Davidson entering the final weekend.

PFL Automatic Qualifier Scenarios

Drake wins the PFL AQ

• With a win against Butler
• OR a Davidson loss against Dayton

Davidson wins the PFL AQ

• With a win against Dayton
• AND a loss by Drake against Butler.

Morehead State 47, Davidson 17

MOREHEAD, Ky. – Making his first collegiate start, Bryce Patterson threw six touchdown passes as Morehead State stunned Davidson 47-17 in PFL action Saturday at Jayne Stadium. Davidson opened the scoring with a 41-yard Adam Zouagui field goal for the only points in the first quarter. Morehead State responded with four touchdowns in the second quarter, Patterson throwing for three scores, to take a 26-10 lead into halftime. Davidson closed within nine points midway in the third quarter on a Mari Adams one-yard run, but Patterson threw two touchdowns before the quarter ended to push the Eagles lead to 40-17. Patterson needed 10 completions to amass 240 yards and his six touchdown throws. Ryan Upp caught five passes for 140 yards and three touchdowns. Adams paced Davidson with a 15-carry, 122-yard performance.

Dayton 35, Marist 6

DAYTON, Ohio – Dayton’s defense forced five turnovers, Cam Cope picking off a pair of passes, en route to a 35-6 PFL victory against Marist Saturday at Welcome Stadium. After a scoreless first quarter, Luke Hansen opened the scoring with a one-yard touchdown run to cap a 12-play, 75-yard drive. Drew VanVleet threw the first of his two touchdowns later in the first half, staking Dayton to a 14-0 halftime. VanVleet added a second touchdown throw early in the third quarter, extending the lead to 21-0. Marist broke through late in the third as Logan Brabham found Matt Stianche for a 14-yard touchdown. But Hansen responded with his second one-yard touchdown run to start the fourth quarter, putting Dayton safely out front. Luke Hansen ran for 111 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, while Drew VanVleet completed 21-of-30 passes for 228 yards and two scores. Brabham completed 26-of-35 passes for 259 yards for Marist.

Valparaiso 23, Stetson 20 in overtime

VALPARAISO, Ind. – Ryan Hawk’s 34-yard field goal in overtime provided Valparaiso a walk-off 23-20 PFL victory against Stetson Saturday at Brown Field. Stetson scored the game’s first 10 points and led 10-7 at halftime. The Beacons took their first lead on the other side of the break on Ryan Mann’s one-yard touchdown run with 6:52 left in the third quarter. The teams traded one-yard scores, with the Beacons holding a 20-17 lead with 6:11 left in the game. Stetson rallied with a 12-play, 51-drive that closed on B. Bush’s game-tying 41-yard field goal. In overtime, Stetson began on offense but turned the ball over on downs, setting up Valparaiso’s winning possession. Mann ran for 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries to pace the Beacons’ offense. Brewer ran for two touchdowns and 33 yards on 15 carries for Stetson.

Drake 16, Presbyterian 14

DES MOINES, Iowa – Shane Dunning hit three field goals, accounting for Drake’s final nine points as the Bulldogs held on for a 16-14 PFL victory against Presbyterian to clinch a share of the PFL title. Drake scored with Dorian Boyland’s three-yard run at the 5:41 mark of the first quarter. Presbyterian tied the game just 23 seconds later as Ty Englehart broke through for a 75-yard touchdown run. Dunning then stepped up to give Drake the lead, hitting a 34-yard field goal in the second quarter and adding a 29-yarder and 48-yarder in the third quarter to extend Drake’s lead to 16-7. Presbyterian would tack on a late fourth-quarter touchdown but could not close the gap. Boyland finished with 77 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Presbyterian’s Tyler Wesley passed for 61 yards and ran for 34 more.

St. Thomas 20, San Diego 14 in overtime

SAN DIEGO, Calif. – Hope Adebayo’s 16-yard touchdown run in overtime pushed St. Thomas past San Diego, 20-14 Saturday in PFL action at Torero Stadium. St. Thomas scored the game’s opening touchdown, with Amari Powell finding Colin Chase for a five-yard touchdown throw with 13 seconds left in the first quarter. San Diego tied the game late in the second quarter only to see St. Thomas score with 51 seconds left in the half to take a 14-7 lead. Neither team scored in the second half until San Diego broke through with 12:55 left in the fourth quarter, tying the game on Isaiah Williams’ three-yard touchdown run. In overtime, San Diego pieced together a seven-play drive but gained only 14 yards, leaving a 28-yard field goal attempt that did not find the mark. St. Thomas followed and needed just three plays to score the game winner. Adebayo scored his two touchdowns as part of a nine-carry, 85-yard rushing outing. Williams paced San Diego with his 30-carry, 163-yard effort.

SO CON

Furman 37, VMI 3
Western Carolina 58, ETSU 7
Wofford 11, The Citadel 3
Mercer 28, Samford 21

 

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SWAC

Saturday, November 11, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 11/11/2023	Alabama A&M 14	Bethune-Cookman 31	Final	Daytona Beach, Fla. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Prairie View A&M 27	Southern 21	Final	Baton Rouge, LA (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Alabama State 20	Mississippi Valley State 3	Final	Itta Bena, Mississippi (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Lincoln University CA 0	Florida A&M 28	Final	Tallahassee, FL	Box Score

Sunday, November 12, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Sunday 11/12/2023	Alcorn State 10	Texas Southern 44	Final	Houston, Texas (Conf.)	Box Score

SOUTHLAND

Saturday, November 11, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 11/11/2023	Northwestern State	UIW	Cancelled	San Antonio, TX (Conf.)
Saturday 11/11/2023	Lamar 24	Nicholls 37	Final	Thibodaux, LA (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	Southeastern 52	Texas A&M-Commerce 14	Final	Commerce, TX (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 11/11/2023	HCU 35	McNeese 24	Final	Lake Charles, LA (Conf.)	Box Score

UAC

#UACFOOTBALL - A successful Hail Mary by No. 24 Central Arkansas to set up a final Saturday battle for the FCS Playoff bid headlined the exciting action from around United Athletic Conference (UAC) Football in Week 11. No. 14/20 Austin Peay secured a share of a UAC Championship while Tarleton State and Southern Utah both extended their win streaks to round out the weekend results.

Down late in the fourth quarter, the last second heave by Will McElvain bounced around and into the arms of Jarrod Barnes resulting in the game winning score for the Bears as time expired on a 27-24 final score. The miracle reception ended any championship hopes for EKU and sends UCA into a winner-take-all match-up with Austin Peay this Saturday in Clarksville, Tenn.

The Govs won their eight straight game and remained undefeated (5-0) in UAC play after topping Utah Tech, 30-17, and becoming the first squad to claim a UAC crown. APSU will be the lone champion and earn the automatic qualification into the FCS Playoffs with a victory over Central Arkansas in its regular season finale.

Closing out their final season of reclassification with a program record eight Division I wins, the Texans rallied with 17 unanswered points against rival Abilene Christian to earn a 31-30 victory in their season finale.

Southern Utah exploded for 45 points including 35 in the second half as the Thunderbirds captured their third consecutive win in a 45-17 decision on the road at Stephen F. Austin.

UAC RESULTS | NOV. 11
* #14/20 Austin Peay 30, Utah Tech 17 | Boxscore
* Tarleton State 31, Abilene Christian 30 | Boxscore
* Southern Utah 45, Stephen F. Austin 17 | Boxscore
* #24 Central Arkansas 27, EKU 24 | Boxscore

* = UAC Game
NOTE: Game stories linked to UAC winners

 

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BIG SKY

BIG SOUTH / OVC

CAA

IVY

MEAC


MVFC


NEC

 

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Patriot

Pioneer

SoCon

Southland

SWAC

UAC

 

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Playoff Scenarios:

Week 12 clinching scenarios​

All scenarios as of Nov. 11, 2023.


ASUN-WAC (UAC)

The ASUN-WAC automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Austin Peay wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Austin Peay def. Central Arkansas
• Central Arkansas wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Central Arkansas def. Austin Peay

Big South-OVC

The Big South-OVC automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Gardner-Webb wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Gardner-Webb def. Charleston Southern
• UT Martin wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Charleston Southern def. Gardner-Webb

NEC

The NEC automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Duquesne wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Duquesne def. Merrimack
• Merrimack wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Merrimack def. Duquesne

Big Sky

The Big Sky automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Montana wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Montana def. Montana State
• Montana State wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Montana State def. Montana

CAA

The CAA automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

Two-way scenarios

• Delaware wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Delaware def. Villanova
  • AND
    • William & Mary def. Richmond AND Monmouth def. UAlbany
    • OR
    • William & Mary def. Richmond AND UAlbany def. Monmouth
• Villanova wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Villanova def. Delaware
  • AND
    • William & Mary def. Richmond AND Monmouth def. UAlbany
    • OR
    • Richmond def. William & Mary AND Monmouth def. UAlbany
• UAlbany wins the auto-bid IF:
  • UAlbany def. Monmouth
  • AND
    • Villanova def. Delaware AND William & Mary def. Richmond
• Richmond wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Richmond def. William & Mary
  • AND
    • Delaware def. Villanova AND Monmouth def. UAlbany

In the event of a three-way tie, the automatic bid will be determined based on point differential in conference games.

Patriot

The Patriot League automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Lafayette wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Lafayette def. Lehigh
  • OR
    • Lehigh def. Lafayette AND Georgetown def. Holy Cross
• Holy Cross wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Holy Cross def. Georgetown AND Lehigh def. Lafayette

Pioneer

The Pioneer Football League automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Drake wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Drake def. Butler
  • OR
  • Dayton def. Davidson
• Davidson wins the auto-bid IF:
  • Butler def. Drake AND Davidson def. Dayton

Non-FCS playoff scenarios​

Ivy

The Ivy League title can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Harvard wins the conference title IF:
  • Harvard def. Yale
• Yale wins the conference title IF:
  • Yale def. Harvard

Yale and Dartmouth remain in the running for a share of the Ivy League title heading into next weekend's final games of the 2023 season. Yale would clinch a share with a win over its rivals while the Big Green would need a Yale win and a victory of their own vs. Brown.

MEAC

The MEAC title and a Celebration Bowl berth can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Howard wins the conference title IF:
  • Howard def. Morgan State
• North Carolina Central wins the conference title IF:
  • North Carolina Central def. Delaware State
  • AND
    • Morgan State def. Howard
• Morgan State wins the conference title IF:
  • Morgan State def. Howard
  • AND
    • Delaware State def. North Carolina Central

SWAC West

The SWAC West divisional title and a SWAC Championship game berth can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:

• Prairie View A&M wins the divisional title IF:
  • Prairie View A&M def. Alabama State
  • OR
    • Alabama State def. Prairie View A&M AND Jackson State def. Alcorn State AND Southern def. Grambling State
• Alcorn State wins the divisional title IF:
  • Alabama State def. Prairie View A&M AND Alcorn State def. Jackson State
• Grambling State wins the divisional title IF:
  • Grambling State def. Southern
  • AND
    • Alabama State def. Prairie View A&M AND Jackson State def. Alcorn State

 

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11/16 07:00 pm	309027 309028	Miss. Valley St Alabama A&M				47 16
11/16 07:00 pm	309029 309030	Nicholls State SE Louisiana				-3½ 57½

 

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Time	Gm#	Team	Score	5Dimes
11/18 12:00 pm	309031 309032	Sacred Heart Connecticut		38½ -26½
11/18 12:00 pm	309033 309034	Chattanooga Alabama		51½ -45½
11/18 12:00 pm	309035 309036	Abilene Christian Texas A&M		57½ -42½
11/18 06:30 pm	309037 309038	North Alabama Florida State		61½ -50½
11/18 12:00 pm	309039 309040	Eastern Illinois Robert Morris		-10½ 43½
11/18 12:00 pm	309041 309042	Georgetown Holy Cross		65½ -21½
11/18 12:00 pm	309043 309044	Lafayette Lehigh		-10½ 45½
11/18 12:00 pm	309045 309046	Dartmouth Brown		-2½ 49½
11/18 12:00 pm	309047 309048	Drake Butler		40½ 7
11/18 12:00 pm	309049 309050	Western Carolina VMI		-15½ 54½
11/18 12:00 pm	309051 309052	Furman Wofford		-19½ 41½
11/18 12:00 pm	309053 309054	Bucknell Marist		-17½ 55
11/18 12:00 pm	309055 309056	St. Francis (PA) Central Conn.		7 58½
11/18 12:00 pm	309057 309058	Duquesne Merrimack		57½ -2½
11/18 12:00 pm	309059 309060	Harvard Yale		58½ -1½
11/18 12:00 pm	309061 309062	San Diego Stetson		6 53½
11/18 01:00 pm	309063 309064	SE Missouri St Bryant		-2½ 61½
11/18 01:00 pm	309065 309066	Morehead St Presbyterian		3 45½
11/18 01:00 pm	309067 309068	Princeton Pennsylvania		36½ -3½
11/18 01:00 pm	309069 309070	Columbia Cornell		31½ -1½
11/18 01:00 pm	309071 309072	Morgan State Howard		41½ -7½
11/18 01:00 pm	309073 309074	Fordham Colgate		-6½ 63
11/18 01:00 pm	309075 309076	Monmouth Albany		54½ -5½
11/18 01:00 pm	309077 309078	Villanova Delaware		46½ 3
11/18 01:00 pm	309079 309080	Hampton Elon		53½ -16½
11/18 01:00 pm	309081 309082	Maine New Hampshire		70½ -18½
11/18 01:00 pm	309083 309084	Rhode Island Towson		3 59½
11/18 01:00 pm	309085 309086	Richmond William & Mary		38½ 4
11/18 01:00 pm	309087 309088	Campbell N. Carolina A & T		-2½ 53½
11/18 01:00 pm	309089 309090	Tennessee Martin Samford		7 57½
11/18 01:00 pm	309091 309092	Charleston Sou Gardner Webb		51½ 14
11/18 01:00 pm	309093 309094	The Citadel East Tennessee State		39½ -10½
11/18 01:00 pm	309095 309096	Long Island Stonehill		4 45½
11/18 02:00 pm	309097 309098	Stephen F.Austin Eastern Kentucky		65½ 7
11/18 02:00 pm	309099 309100	Delaware St NC Central		66½ -24½
11/18 02:00 pm	309101 309102	Youngstown State Murray St		-18½ 61½
11/18 02:00 pm	309103 309104	Illinois St North Dakota		58½ -3½
11/18 02:00 pm	309105 309106	So Carolina St Norfolk St		47½ 5
11/18 02:00 pm	309107 309108	Indiana State So Illinois		37½ 24
11/18 02:00 pm	309109 309110	Central Arkansas Austin Peay		60½ -6½
11/18 02:00 pm	309111 309112	South Dakota Western Illinois		-29½ 47
11/18 02:00 pm	309113 309114	Montana State Montana		6 52½
11/18 02:00 pm	309115 309116	Portland State Northern Colorado		-11½ 55½
11/18 02:00 pm	309117 309118	Valparaiso St Thomas		42½ -14½
11/18 03:00 pm	309119 309120	Alabama St Prairie View		-7½ 43½
11/18 03:00 pm	309121 309122	Arkansas Pine Bluff Texas Southern		52½ -19½
11/18 03:00 pm	309123 309124	Tennessee Tech Tennessee St		40½ 10
11/18 03:00 pm	309125 309126	Missouri St South Dakota State		55½ -27½
11/18 03:00 pm	309127 309128	Alcorn St Jackson St		45½ -5½
11/18 03:00 pm	309129 309130	CS Sacramento UC Davis		1 51½
11/18 03:00 pm	309131 309132	Incarnate Word Houston Christian		10 47½
11/18 03:30 pm	309133 309134	Bethune Cookman Florida A&M		43½ -15½
11/18 04:00 pm	309135 309136	Northern Arizona Eastern Washington		64½ 3
11/18 04:00 pm	309137 309138	McNeese St Lamar		50½ -10½
11/18 05:00 pm	309139 309140	North Dakota State Northern Iowa		-7½ 50
11/18 07:00 pm	309141 309142	Idaho State Idaho		61½ -21½
11/18 07:00 pm	309143 309144	Southern Utah Utah Tech		-11½ 62½
11/18 07:00 pm	309145 309146	Dayton Davidson		63½ -13½
11/18 08:05 pm	309147 309148	Weber State Cal Poly		-16½ 53½

 

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The Ivy League Championship will be decided Saturday with the possibilities being, a Harvard sole Ivy Title with a 6-1 Ivy record, a shared Harvard-Yale Ivy Title with both being 5-2 or a 3-way tie between Harvard, Yale and Dartmouth all knotted at 5-2. The Ivy League does not break ties - both Harvard and Yale beat Dartmouth so really if they finish with the same record the Big Green should have no championship claim - and if Yale were to beat Harvard each team would finish 5-2 with the head-to-head going to Yale, but again, this is not how the Ivy does things. There have only been two other times in Ivy League history that the champion(s) finished with two league losses.

The road team has won the last two years in The Game. Last season Yale won the outright Ivy title at Harvard stadium in a close 19-14 game and two years ago here at Yale, Harvard won by 3 in an exciting game. Yale Bowl holds some 60,000 and I read that they have sold 40,000 some tickets so far. Ivy attendance is usually under 10,000 and sometimes under 5,000 per game - but The Game is still a very big draw as both fan bases show up in strong numbers.

Harvard and Yale come in off OT victories. Harvard and Penn both missed or had a FG blk'd in the final minutes of regulation. Harvard threw an INT in OT 2, but Penn missed a FG which would've won it for them. Harvard ultimately won on a trick play in OT 3. Yale and Princeton were tied 7-7 HT, but they would combine for 28 4Q pts with Princeton tying with just :18 left after a 7min drive. Princeton went for a 4th down in OT1 and Yale missed a FG. Then in the top of OT2 Yale scored with the 2pt conversion and Princeton could not answer.

Jaden Craig has taken firm control of the Harvard QB job now, throwing for 264 and 253 yards the last two games, completing 72 and 63% in those with a 2-1 ratio while also adding 69y rushing with 3 TDs combined in those last two games. He is an upgrade over DePrima passing and still a good runner as well. He caught the winning 2pt conversion in OT last week. Harvard's passing O barely topped 200y in just two of the first seven games before Craig took over as starter. Those increased yards have to come from somewhere and as a result, Harvard's rushing output has dropped from 230ypg (5.98) to 134ypg (3.3) even though they are still trying to run it about the same number of times (40 att avg per game first seven games, 35 and 49 attempts the last two weeks). This is a better way for Harvard's O to make a living as Princeton showed, the one-dimensional DePrima based rushing O could be stopped. Harvard has had some really good RBs the last few years (Borguet and Shampklin), I would say they are down in that unit with this year's top RB being Shane McLaughlin so they need the QB to make plays assist the running game. The OL is down from last year as well - Harvard has been sacked an Ivy high 16x so far in 6 Ivy games and 22 in all 9 games this year, that is double what they allowed last year in the Ivy and 10 more than they allowed over all 10 games last year on almost 100 fewer pass attempts. Inexperienced QBs have played a role there. It's an adequate receving and TE group - nothing too special.

Harvard's success is typiclaly their strong defensive units. This year does feel slightly different. Both Penn and Columbia rushed for over 100y on them last week (Penn 4.0ypc and Columbia 3.4ypc) - neither team is a strong rushing group, about average in the league...last year Penn ran for just 9y (.6ypc) and Columbia ran for just 78y (2.3ypc). The 2023 to 2022 stats say that Harvard is allowing an identical 3.1 ypc vs the Ivy - however this Harvard team has yet to play Yale. Last year Harvard was allowing just 90.3 ypg until Yale went for 219y (4.3) on them in the finale. What might Yale run for on them this year? The sack numbers are down as well, 18 in 9 games overall, while 2022 they were 29 in 10 games. TFLs are also down, last year they ranked 21st nationally in TFLs on D, this year they rank 98th. Their RZ D is the same year over year, but it isn't good, second to last in 2022, last in 2023 in allowing scores 85.2% of the time - TDs allowed is 63% (it was 66% last year).

I think the reason Harvard is 8-1 right now this year compared to 6-4 last year is three fold. They were the most penalized team in the league last year and this year are the least penalized. The other two is 3rd down O and turnover margin. This year they are +10 TOs, last year they were -5. Vs Holy Cross for instance, Harvard was -2 last year and lost by 9. This year they were +5 and won by 10. In all the losses last year Harvard only converted between 15-27% of their 3rd downs. Another game they had a poor conversion rate they failed to cover vs Merrimack. They ranked last in the Ivy last year in 3rd down O. This year they rank second best (behind Yale) with no game being below 33%.

Harvard is just 5-4 ATS overall. In games they lost 2 or more TOs in they are 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU (Princeton and Dartmouth). Harvard started the year on a 4-1 ATS run (O averaged 418ypg in those and 41.2ppg), but now is on a 1-3 ATS run (O averaged 317ypg and 23.5ppg) with their only cover being vs the Ivy's worst team in Columbia (which also helps prop up the yards and scoring averages). Other than Holy Cross, the Crimson was favorited in every game. Harvard failed to cover vs the other top 3 teams in the Ivy this year (Princeton lost by 7, Dartmouth won by 8 where they led just 7-3 HT and Penn won by 3 in OT). Harvard did outgain Penn by 43y, but was outgained by Dartmouth -61y and Princeton -107y. Harvard had 4 straight Overs to start the year, but since have gone Under 3-1-1, last week pushed a 48 total in OT.

So, Harvard O currently has better QB play than earlier in the season or last year, are smarter and more efficient. The running game and OL is weaker and the receiving options aren't anything special. The D is still good, mabye a little less dominant and what they lack for in sack and TFL numbers they have made up for in TOs forced/gained.

Harvard's main contributors on O have a lot of new faces this year over last. Yale returns most everyone.

Yale offensively is playing their best ball of the season right now. They kind of struggled to start the year and even just 4 games ago vs Penn. In their first 6 games the Yale O avg just 330ypg and 28ppg. The last 3 games they avg 432ypg and 35ppg. It must be noted that Yale has played Columbia, who is very bad and Brown, who's D isn't that good among their last 3 games. I still think their recent run shows improvement because they faced some weak teams in the first 2/3 of the season as well such as Cornell and Sacred Heart and they just seemed off on the offense side of the ball. The reason is Grooms. Grooms has upped his play both throwing and running. Even if two of the Ds faced in the last 3 weeks do not impress us, he was good vs Princeton and Princeton is a good defensive unit. Grooms went 23-30-232-1-0 and rushed for 45y on 13 att with a TD. High completion %, a couple big plays, no picks. He is playing his best ball. Yale O is playing their best ball. Undoubtedly it will get harder vs the Harvard D, at least they are in a good place rather than entering this game struggling. Grooms didn't have a great game last year vs Harvard, but was not bad, 15-28-144-1-0, 63y rushing on 15 att. Grooms runs often, but Yale also has a good running game with Pitsenberger who is off his best game of the year vs Princeton, 131y on 23att with 3 TDs. Last year he ran for 82y on 21att with a TD vs Harvard. Tre Peterson only has about half the yards he did last year, but he got a lot of work vs Brown and last season he ran for 74y and a TD on Harvard. As a team Yale ran for 219 (4.3) on the Crimson D.

Grooms has improved a lot as a passer. He's brought up the completion % from 57.8% to 66.5%. TD INT ratio has gone from 14-10 to 20-7

In Ivy League play, Yale was the #1 scoring O last season as they are again this year, down just 3ppg. They are a better passing team, attempts per game has only increased by a couple a game, the yards per game passing has gone up by 30. The sacks have risen somewhat dramatically though, from just 4 last year to 15 this year. Yale OL has seen injuries and been shuffled. Only one player from week 1 is currently starting the same position. Their best OL and NFL prospect Kiran Amegadjie was lost for the year last month. This is an area of concern and Yale's biggest weakness vs the veteran and talented Harvard DL.

Like Harvard, the Yale D is a tick behind last year's unit, most notably in the rushing D. In 7 games vs Ivies last year Yale allowed just 69.3 ypg (2.8) - this year that figure is almost double at 129.8ypg (3.7)! Princeton ran for 154y (3.9) on them last week. For the year Princeton was only avg 92.75 (2.8). Yale had the best 3rd down conversion D last year (35.6), this year it is second to last (45.5%). They were not a big positive TO team last year and are not this year either. Pass eff D is the same.

There is a common out of league opponent here with Holy Cross. Yale played them to start their season and HC won 49-24 as Yale could not keep up with the HC O (was 21-17 HT and 28-7 2H). HC outgained them by 122y. Yale was -1 in TOs. When Harvard played HC it was game #3 for the Crimson. Harvard was also outgained by over 100y (-108), but Harvard benefitted from gaining/forcing 5 HC TOs, scored on D and had other short field opporunities as a result of those TOs leading to a 38-28 Harvard win. I mentioned how Yale's O improved from then to now, but the way Harvard's D played vs Holy Cross is noteworthy - while HC gained over 7 ypp vs both Harvard and Yale, they only converted 3-of-11 3rd downs vs Harvard, HC converted 8-of-12 vs Yale.

In Yale's recent Ivy loss was to Penn by 10 pts, who outained Yale by 207y while Harvard nearly lost to Penn as well in OT but Harvard was +43y vs them.

Yale is 6-3 ATS, 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Yale has lost twice this year at home, to Cornell as a 13 pt fav in their second game and also lost 4 games ago home vs Penn as a 6 pt home fav. Overs are 5-4, but in Ivy play it's 3-3.

Always a tough game to predict The Game. Yale O is better, Harvard D is better. Harvard doesn't attempt many FGs, Yale has missed 5. It's a treat in that Yale is playing their best right now and Harvard with the QB change is as balanced and capable of a team as they have been all year as well. Harvard might have some of the edges on the field like their DL vs the Yale OL. Their turnover causing D this year compared to last. Harvard was -4 TOs in this game last year, all INTs. The QB is inexperienced but I doubt we see something like that again. And with those TOs last year, Harvard still only lost by 5. Harvard was only 2-of-12 on 3rd down in last year's game, which was a reoccuring problem for them in the 2022 losses. They have not had such struggles so far this year. I would probably take Harvard at like +3, but I don't know which way the line will move. Motivation for both is obviously sky high so nothing to read into that either way. Both off emotional OT games as well, so equal there as well.

They combined to score just 33 pts last year. However typically this is a higher scoring game, 65, 93, 72, 27, 35, 57, 55, 41, 58 - those are the combined scores going back to 2012. Avg margin of victory is 12.4, only half of the last 10 in the series have been 1 score games though.

 

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I don't think I am going to dig that deep on any other games this week.

Elsewhere in the Ivy .... Dartmouth could share an Ivy title if Yale beats Harvard despite losing to both Harvard and Yale! Such is life in the Ivy. Brown on the other hand can finish with their first winning season since 2013! Really improved season defensively for Brown. 3-3 in league play, they haven't won more than 1 Ivy game in a year since 2016. They still rank last in the league statistically in many D categories, but if you look at where they rank nationally 2022 to 2023 there is a good bit of improvement. They have shaved 7 pts of the scoring D. They are allowing fewer sacks this year (with more pass attempts). TO margin is +3 this year, were -15 last year - they are giving it up less and gaining more on D. All while still having the Ivy's #1 total O. Brown is 7-2 ATS, 6-1 ATS as a dog with 4 outright upset wins. 4 straight Unders (avg total 55.62), on the year Overs are 5-4.

Dartmouth is improved from last year 5-4, 4-2 in Ivy play. Last year they were 3-7 and just 2-5 in Ivy play. But historically, Dartmouth is still nowhere near what they have been. They were a combined 35-5 from 2017-2021. So to say they can share an Ivy title this year, with this team, I think it misreprents who they are. They aren't all that good compared to when Dartmouth football is normally good. In two games they won this year, at Penn and vs Princeton, Dartmouth was outgained by 143 and 159 yards respectively. They did beat Cornell pretty good last week, played Harvard tough and arguably outplayed Yale a month ago. But also they struggled with Columbia and lost to Colgate. Dartmouth is very dependent on turnovers to assist their offense with short fields or non-offensive TDs. It is run game and defense with Dartmouth. That is what I said in the days before they lost to Colgate, Dartmouth and defense. Well Colgate when for 418 on them. Princeton put up 356y on them (5.2) - worse than Princeton put up vs Brown 324 (4.4). Harvard ran for 235 (4.5) on them and Penn passed for 383 (65%) on them. So D, yeah but ... vs a team that is good at what they do, they can be had. And Brown is good at what they do.

I think Dartmouth O is a little too limited and vs a quality O like Brown, the Bears should have enough to overcome the Big Green D. I've said before this is just a differnet year for Brown, they are doing things they normally don't do, in a good way. With a win that theme would continue as Dartmouth has won 5 straight vs Brown, all of which were blowouts except for 2019 which was a 6 pt game. This line is looking like Dartmouth -2.5 in a series they have dominated, DD favs every year, until now. Not this year. As people hear that Dartmouth can share the Ivy Title with a win and assuming this spread rises, I will take Brown and look for them to end this season the right way, to end a losing streak to Dartmouth with a win and a 6-4 record.



Columbia is 0-6 in Ivy play. The last time they went winless in the Ivy was 2014 when they actually had back-to-back winless Ivy campaigns. Columbia football had a recent uptick with winning seasons 4 of the last 5 years, but historically Columbia is the weakest ancient eight and have fallen on hard times this year. Columbia has had some close games, lost in OT to Brown last week, only lost to Penn by 3, Princeton by 3, they played Dartmouth tough (lost by 11, but outgained them by 88y). In fact, Columbia has been outgained in every Ivy game but the Dartmouth game by an average of 136 ypg. It is offense, they just have no offense. They are last in the league in scoring O and total O. The D is respectable and can keep them in some games.

Columbia is 2-7 ATS overall, 1-5 ATS in Ivy play with 5 straight spread losses. Totals are always very low (avg 39.8), Unders are still 6-3 as six teams, either Columbia or thier opponent, have been held to single digits or shutout. They scored 24 pts on Harvard, but 14 were garbage time.

Cornell looked like a new team when the season started. Beats Lehigh, was covering before allowing a backdoor score there. They cameback to beat Yale in week 2! It's been pretty much downhill from there - they lost to both Colgate and Bucknell and lately have only managed to score 8.33 ppg on average in their last 3 games.

This total is ultra super mega low, 31.5! The games between these two has seen some points with combined scores of 67, 60, 44, 45 and 26 the last five games. Last year Columbia and Cornell both were averaging just 18.6 and 18.8 ppg vs the Ivy, yet Columbia scored 45 to Brown's 22.

Columbia has won the last two and four of the last five, remember those winning seasons I said Columbia had? Those were the four years Columbia beat Cornell, the on they didn't in 2019 was a 3-7 Columbia team.

I think I may like Cornell a little and think I have to go Over 31.5. Columbia is off their second best Ivy league offensive game of the year with 330 yards last week (4.5). Cornell was held to 8 pts at Princeton two weeks ago, but produced 431 yards in that one (5.2).



The last Ivy game is Princeton at Penn - both teams enter this one off disappointing close OT losses. Penn has actually discovered a bit of a running game with Fr RB Malachi Hosley who ran for 261 vs Cornell two weeks ago and 109 last week vs a tough Harvard D. Hosley has been recognized as an Ivy POW (either rookie or O POW) 5x this season, tying now KC Chiefs WR Justin Watson who also had 5 in his entire Penn career! It is a great compliment to what had been a pretty one dimensional offense for Penn, Quakers passed for 306 ypg on avgerage the first 7 games with an avg of just 94ypg rushing. Penn has the #2 ypg O in the Ivy, but just the 4th scoring O and Penn has a very solid D (#1 in sacks and TFLs).

Whenever I see a good D team that can get pressure and TFLs, I usually think that leads to trouble for Prinecton. Like when they played Lafayette earlier in the season, the Leopards sacked them 7x! Princeton hasn't been that bad lately, but still allowed Brown to rack up 10 TFLs on them (which is crazy for a Brown D) - Yale got them for 9 TFLs last week, Dartmouth got them for 10. So Penn's D should be difficult for Princeton to handle. On the other hand for Princeton, they have kind of learned to play with a pourous OL as it has been this way for 2 years now.

Princeton is off of probably their best offensive game of the year with the 397 yards and 28 pts on Yale last week - Tigers even ran it for 154y, they came in avg just 82.6 ypg on the ground.

Two good Ivy QBs here going against each other. Two good Ds as well. Probably will be a tight game. Last year Penn won 20-19 as 11.5 pt dog at Princeton. Two years ago here Princeton's Co-Ivy championship team won 34-14 vs a 3-7 Penn team. But these two are much closer now. +3.5 seems valuable to have on either team in this one. 36.5 is of course low, but Princeton does go Under a lot. I was shocked last week the 37.5 open only went to 39. I would think that these two can go Over this week - Penn has scored at least 20 in every game this season and while Princeton's O really struggled at the start of the year, over their last 5 games the Princeton O is averaging 22.2 ppg.

 

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Not one, but two Mississippi Valley State games on ESPNU this year. Wow. ESPN wants to promote MEAC and HBCU football, that is fine - but the selection of games and teams, not sure who in charge making those programming decisions.

Alabama A&M is full on tail spin, lost third straight and now after allowing a Bethune Cookman team who was averaging 106ypg rushing vs other SWAC teams to rush for 412y on A&M last week! I mean, A&M basically allowed Bethune to rush for 3.5x the amount of yards Bethune ran for on Savannah State! A&M lost by 17 as a 3.5 pt favorite. Think they have been mailing the rest of this season in and coach is hot seat and could be some action if this game doesn't go a certain way. Can you take Valley here? MVSU was just held to a season low 130 total yards vs ASU last week. 2.3 yards per play! The fact that ESPN is even airing this game does irreparable harm to SWAC football.



The other Thursday game, Nicholls and Southeastern Louisiana can be a good one. Nicholls has already locked up at least a share of the SLC and the playoff autobid is theirs, but this is still a big one - the River Bell Trophy.

SLU is on a 3 game winning streak after starting the year 0-7, but their 3 wins are against very very very weak opponents. Their first win was Northwestern State's last game before canceling the season, NW State was winless on the year. Texas A&M Commerce has one win, over McNeese and McNeese is the team that SLU beat last week - they remain winless. SELU beat 3 teams with a combined record of 1-24. Good job Lions! If nothing else they beat them bad, 2-1 ATS with avg margin of 23 pts and outgained them by an average of 155ypg. SLU O has exploded in these last 3 games. But this was coming. SELU has avg 482ypg the last 3, but the 3 games prior vs some slighly better competition in Lamar, UIW and Tarleton - in those games SLU avg 426ypg - so they had been getting better. The difference is they finally put it together to score pts off those yards 42.3 ppg the last 3, 21 ppg the previous 3. HCU was still a disasster, but they outgained Tarleton by 207 in a 1 pt loss and outgained UIW slightly as well, but had to score some garbage pts there to lose by 7. The D has been about the same thoughout most of SLC play, or atleast the last 5 games. So can they keep it going?

Nicholls is pretty good, not great. Nicholls D allowed 416 to Lamar (their 2nd best of the year) and 464 to UIW (also their second best) the last two weeks. Nicholls O has got it done on the ground the last two weeks (ran for 349 on Lamar and 331 on UIW), then 3 games ago they passed for 345 on SEMO - so they have shown the ability on O both running and throwing the last few games. It is the same way for SLU, rushed for an avg of 259ypg the last 3, but 4 games ago they passed for 351 - so they too can have success by air or on the ground.

Depending how it's looked at, Nicholls has benefitted or forced a lot of turnovers in their wins - +3 last week vs Lamar (only outgained them by 39y won by 13), +2 margin vs UIW (UIW outgained them by 25y Nicholls won by 13). +2 margin vs Texas AM Commerce (won by 20 outgained them by 72y). +3 vs HCU and +3 vs McNeese. +11 ratio, #4 in ncaa TO margin this year. SLU has had trouble with TOs all year. They have lost 3 TOs in 4 of their last 6 games and one of those other games they lost 2. In a matchup of a team that has this kind of gained TOs (24) in Nicholls vs a team in SLU that has so many lost TOs (19) - that seems like that would play a role in this one as often as they gain or lose them with frequency this year.

Really, the games between these two are traditionally high scoring. Last year SLU won 40-17, played twice in 2021 - Nicholls won 45-42 and SLU won 58-48, 2020 SLU 52-45, 2019 Nicholls won 28-27 - so some pretty high scoring games between these wo.

Nicholls has gone Over 3 straight (avg total 49.8 with an avg score of 37.6 - 30.3). On the year Unders are 5-4. SLU has gone Over the last 4 (avg total 51.75 with an avg score of 37.75 - 22), Overs are 5-4 on the year. Feels kind of dangerous to lay the pts here on Nicholls vs a talented SLU team having a disappointing season in their home and season finale who is playing their best ball of the year. Something tells me turnovers could hurt SLU and help Nicholls if season trends continue here. Nicholls is able to finish the SLC undefeated this year, SLU is trying to end the year winning 4 straight and sending the seniors off right after finishing the last two years 9-4. Over might be the better path based on both recent play and history.

@twinkie13 what you got on the River Bell game?

 

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Hard for me to have an opinion in the FCS vs FBS games at this point. I had a better idea who the FBS teams were when the season started than I do now.

Sacred Heart had a not-too-bad NEC level D going for a while - the last several games in succession have seen them allow increasingly more yards...204 to LIU, 273 to Yale, 349 to Stonehill, 436 to Duquesne, 474 to CCSU. D allowed 22.8 ppg over their first 5 and 25.4 ppg over their last 5, so not much different. The SHU O has struggled all year, mostly because of their QB play. They are off one of their best performances in the home finale. I would assume an FBS team would dominate and limit their scoring, UConn is having a pretty bad year though I see.

The SoCon has 4 potential playoff teams, the auto-bid going to Furman and then the committee will have to sort out the resumes and strengths of Chattanooga, Mercer and Western Carolina. UTC will end up at 7-4 and both Mercer and WCU will be 8-3 teams. I would personally select Western Carolina and UTC with Mercer as my 4th and likely left out SoCon team - but I don't know how the committee will view it. UTC could be on the outside looking in, in which case this would be an opportunity to try and play well for the committee. It's Alabama however, so .... UTC's O is a little limited on normal weeks as they are hot and cold and should really struggle to do much of anything vs Bama. Maybe they get 3-7 pts in one half or the other and maybe shutout in the other half. Not sure how interested Alabama will be, UTC D is kind of good, but not as good as they have been or should be. Probably an Under.

I would have to try and get up to speed on Texas A&M, which I am unlikely to do. Abilene Chrisitian D generally gives it up bad on the ground and their D overall is pretty bad most weeks. Their O can probably score a little, more than New Mexico and ULM did on the Aggies. They did hold UMass to just 3 last year and shut out Sam Houston last year. Also held PV to just 3 in 2021. I originally thought Over and based off of how ACU has lost some of their games to strong teams like Southern Utah and Central Ark I thought that Texas A&M could just run away with it. Now I am unsure how A&M handles it. Maybe @pressitup would like to weigh in? I think this ACU team is better than the last two FCS teams A&M has faced for what that is worth.

Not every day you see a spread exceeding 50 pts, North Alabama is +50.5. It is a Miami - Gator sandwich for FSU so situationally that is one thing. I would have to assume this is a 'B' game by the Noles and they allow some of their depth players to get reps and stay healthy. I don't think running it up on an FCS is going to do much for the playoff committee. The memory of losing to Jacksonville State will always be there, but since then Noles have beat UMass 59-3 (-35.5) and Duquesne 47-7 (-46). I probably take those points with UNA and hope they can survive the 1H without being down by more than 5 TDs.

Robert Morris is on a 2 game winning streak. Came back from a 0-6 HT hole last week to beat CSO 14-12. CSO plays some decent D, what I see in that one is that CSO gained 393y (6.6), only scored 12 pts because they scored 0 TDs in the RZ and missed two FGs. It could've been a 17-0 1H lead for CSO instead of 6-0 and RM was unlikely to crawl back if that had been the case. Note that CSO's 393y is their best output of the year and they had their second most rushing yards on the year. CSO has outgained just two opponets this year, Lindenwood and now RM. I would like Eastern Illinois here, but just can't lay this many with them. They were tied 14-14 vs TSU last week, but did win by 13. Their scoring O is just not as good as I think it should be. Holly's completion % is pretty bad at times this year, they aren't great on 3rd down or in the RZ either. Maybe last week indicates their O is a little better and TSU is a decent D - the RM D may allow them operate better. I've been a fan of EIU this year and would like to play them again, I just don't want to lay 10 with them here. They were -14 vs Lindenwood and only won 16-10 in their last road game (only 327-265 yards) and earlier their other road fav spot was a struggle to get to 19-10 (-6.5) at winless NW State (yards 349-350).

With Lafayette in control of the league title should they win, Holy Cross' path would be an at-large birth, they will want to have a splashy win to impress the playoff selection committee, but can they? HC has failed to cover their last 5 as a favorite on avg line of 19.3 - and they lost straight up in two of those spots. Win or loss, the avg margin of victory in those games has been 9.4. The D has been a seive most of the year, even vs Bucknell. Bucknell was Georgetown's last opponent and that was a wild one. GT led 23-8, but Bucknell tied it at 37-37 then there were two lead changes in the final 3min before going to OT where GT won on a TD after Bucknell had to kick a FG on their possessions. GT has had O vs pretty much everyone all year, sometimes yards and not as many pts, but they have moved it and usually scored well. Mabye they are running low on fuel after that OT game last week, but I think they have the type of O that can hang in a 3 TD number vs HC. The Over would seem to be good, although they are pricing it high. GT has gone Over 3 straight games, but it is 5-5 on the year (avg total 45.15). HC is off back-to-back Unders, but Overs are 7-3 on the year with them (avg total 56.75). In normal circumstances, I would like GT here. Just worry that teams off a roller coaster game like they were, with HC wanting to hammer somebody in their finale - will be a lot of want-to for HC and this would be Sluka's final HC game. Must tread lightly on this one, might take a back door score for GT to cover. HC has won the last 7, blown them out the last two years, 47-10 last year and 48-14 2021, avg margin in those 7 wins is 21.2. The last close game was 2018.

The Rivalry. Lafayette and Lehigh have played more than any two teams in the country, this will be the 159th edition. With a win, Lafayette clinches the Patriot League championship either outright or shared depending on what Holy Cross does. Lafayette loses and HC wins, HC would be Patriot League champion. Lehigh has had some moments this year, but mostly been a play against team for me (5-4-1 ATS). Lafayette has been a play on team (8-1-1 ATS, just 2-1-1 as a favorite). Lafayette does it with strong D, strong running game and efficient QB play. Super RB Jamar Curtis missed the Colgate loss, if I plays I think they win that game. He came back last week and rushed for 204y on 31att - he is #2 NCAA in rushing yards per game. Denoble leads the Patriot league in completion % and had a 15-5 ratio, he only attempts about 20-some passes a game. The Leopard D is #2 nationally in sacks per game (3.4). The D is good, a game like they had vs Holy Cross makes you wonder, but they led Colgate 17-0 HT and some circumstances allowed Colgate to come back in that one (Colgate only finished with 303 ttl yards). Last week Lafayette held Fordham to just 16 pts, that is 17.8 pts below their average! No surprise it is the best scoring D in the league. Lehigh has had some life lately, lost pretty bad to Colgate last week, Mountain Hawks may've been looking ahead to this one. Lehigh D is very poor, allowed Colgate 485y, HC 425y, GT 457y, Fordham 594y, Monmouth 619y - all bad! I skipped the Bucknell game because Rucker was out and Bucknell only gained 252y in that one. With the exception of the Bucknell game, Lehigh has been outgained by 149.8 ypg on average this year. They've been able to cover some games they probably shouldn't due to turnovers and good field position off said turnovers. Lehigh has the Patriot's worst 3rd down O, worst pass completion %, last scoring O, second to last rushing O - Lafayette D should have little trouble handling this offense. Lafayette O has occasinally been a little suspicious, it is a very good O, but not a blow your doors off O, so to cover a DD spread like this in a rivalry game the D is going to have to do most of the work as the O just kind of slowly walks away with it. I worry about that. And that Lehigh has found a way to stay in some games they really should not have. Lafayette has won 3 of the last 4, but these games are tight. 14-11, 17-10, 20-13, 17-16. You have to go back to 2018 and 2016 to find any kind of game more than 1 score. Really like this Lafayette team and don't like Lehigh, but this is on the road, the spread is high and the energy level for both will be max. Have to lay off this line.

Interesting line to see Butler -7 hosting Drake. I like Butler, but Drake is 7-0 in Pioneer league play and with a win here they will win the league outright and get their first ever playoff bid. If Drake loses, then Davidson would win the league with a win over Dayton. Drake might be 7-0, Butler isn't far behind at 5-2 with a 7 pt loss to St Thomas and a 2 pt loss vs Davidson. Butler was outgained by 38 and 161 yards in those games. They have outgained their other 5 Pioneer opponents by 111 ypg. Off a bye and off a 49-7 dismantling of Morehead the week before that. Butler is 4-3 ATS vs Pioneer, 3-2 ATS as a favorite. Butler has a little better O, Drake has the better D. Drake has outgained every Pioneer opponent by 71 ypg. 5 of their 7 league games have been decided by 1 score, the others beating Stetson by 26 and beating St Thomas by 31 was the real shocker (+373 yards). Sacks are a story for Drake both on O and D as part of their success. In the 7 league games, they have the second most pass attempts (246), but they have only allowed 3 sacks, the fewest in the league. And on D, Drake's D has accounted for a league high 21 sacks for 3 per game! Drake has also lost the fewest TOs leading to the best TO margin at +7 overall. Those are the stats, the passing O completes a low percentage and lacks big plays and they have just a mid-pack rush O. Butler on the other hand has a good dual threat QB in Bushka, the Butler O passes less and is better running. In terms of ttl yards, Butler averages 371 while Drake averages 366. Drake has the better overall D. But really these teams are close. I really do not get the line. Last year Drake won 27-24 as 6.5 pt road dog. 2021 Drake won 6-3 as a 9.5pt home fav. 2020 Drake won 33-7 and 42-7 in 2019, won 38-28 in 2018. I get that Butler has been down and they are on the upswing last year and this year with the new staff, but it isn't like Drake was all that good - the last 3 Drake teams who beat Butler 2020-2022 were just 2 and 3 win teams. Drake has performed well against them and now has a lot to play for. These teams are close offensively and Drake as the better D. Got to take the +7 here.

 

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Could probably consider Western Carolina. I don’t think Reid is back yet, but they showed last week they have finally shaken off the losses and hangover of the Furman-Mercer-Wofford games. 58-7 with 687-215 ttl yard edge vs ETSU last week, that is the WCU we all knew and loved from the first half of the year. Their playoff position is not certain, so another big win would help the resume. The WCU D still concerns me and VMI has only lost two FCS games this year by the margin of this point spread, last week Furman 37-3 (Furman outgained them 351-189, 16 pts on short fields) and last month Mercer 38-3 (Mercer outgained them 401-214, VMI – 3 TOs). Kind of like the potential of WCU here, but don’t like the fact that the two teams who blew VMI out did it more so with defense which isn’t WCU’s calling card.

The bottom of the So Con is so bad. You have the top 4 teams, Samford in the middle and then the bottom 4. Been a bad year for Wofford. Start it off with the loss to Presbyterian, but perhaps even worse was the 31 pt loss to ETSU! If that was rock bottom, since that game they are 3-0 ATS however with a cover at Mercer (+20), cover vs WCU (+17.5) and a road favorite cover at The Citadel last week. Mercer and WCU only slightly outgained them. I can explain away those games, Mercer was off the UTC game with WCU on deck and when WCU played Wofford they were reeling off the back-to-back Furman and Mercer losses. So it is likely that nobody took Wofford with full focus and attention. Wofford O is only averaging 296 ypg the last 3 with 17.6 ppg and now they play the top D in the league. Wofford has lost by 20 or more vs Furman 3 of the last 4 years, 2017 and 2019 Wofford beat Furman, but those were good Wofford teams. The last two years it has been 105-48 combined Furman wins. Was going to say I liked the Under here, but see it is 41.5 and don’t like it that low. Hesitation on Furman is that they have only beat two SoCon teams by this margin all year, last week 37-3 vs VMI (only 351 yards though with 16 pts, a TD and 3 FGs off just 61y of O set up on short fields) – Furman doesn’t really gap teams. Only beat ETSU by 8, only beat Citadel by 14, only beat Samford by 6, only beat Kennesaw by 3 … some of those teams are better than Wofford, but I’m not sure I trust them to cover this number. These teams played the first collegiate football game in South Carolina and played 3 years earlier than Auburn – Georgia who typically claim the south’s oldest rivalry. Furman is positioning themselves for a possible #2 seed, laying these points here is just not for me points here even though the line probably gets bet up a little and I can’t take Wofford and the Under is too low.

Been a bit of a Bucknell fan this year, seeing them as a 17.5 pt favorite, and on the road?! Marist is a weak Pioneer team, but it is hard for me to comprehend Bucknell as a 3 score favorite vs pretty much anyone. Marist just lost to Dayton who is one of the weakest teams in the whole subdivision so that is certainly a very bad loss. Marist started a new QB in that one. They actually moved the ball well, but INT at the D02, fumble at the D37 and fumbled at the D07 in the 1H. Two more TOs in the 2H means they lost 5 for the game (-3 net) and a couple SOD to boot. 356 yards and 5.7ypp was actually their second best output all year, but just 6 pts because of all those TOs. New QB Brabham gets start #2 at home I assume, Marist should be in line for another good offensive game and maybe they score instead of turning it over when they get in opponent territory this game. Bucknell had a meaningful game and a tough loss last week vs Georgetown. They were down, came back to tie then lost in OT and now get a weird out of conference game to end the year. I know Marist is soft and Bucknell’s O has been good this year – but that many points for a perennial loser to lay on the road out of conference in a season finale? Strange that last year, Bucknell was also off an OT game vs Georgetown the second to last week of the year and then hosted Marist. Bison beat them 24-13 as a 7.5 pt home fav. I get the PR aspect of the spread, but when bad teams are favored that high even over other bad teams, it isn’t always as easy as it looks. Bucknell was favored once this year, vs Lehigh, and lost straight up.

St Francis was the NEC representative in the playoff last year, which may’ve been their best team in 30 years literally. This year they are just 3-6, the O isn’t as good, the D isn’t as good and last year they were +9 TO margin, this year they are -5. St Francis played the three best teams in the NEC in terms of conference w-l record last 3 games, went 1-2 SU in those, lost to Duquesne by 3, beat Merrimack by 7 and lost to LIU by 1. The last time they played a bad NEC team they beat Wagner 31-7 with a 434-299 ttl yard edge. Now they close the year after a bye last week with a game at the NEC’s worst team, CCSU. SFU is 1-5 ATS this year as a favorite and has been upset 3x! Pretty bad. Cole Doyle is their returning starter at QB and he’s good, much better last year, but he has missed the last two games with concussion. Now after the bye week? I don’t know. Game notes had him starting the last two games which was obviously wrong. No way to find local news or beat writers on SFU that I know of. In his place rFr Nich Whitfiled had done well, led a comeback win vs Merrimack in his first start; 28-44-373-3-0 in those two games without many rushing yards, but did catch a TD pass. I would think Doyle could return, but Whitfield has shown capable. In NEC play, SFU actually has the best rushing O in the league, so that should lead the way. CCSU has a poor run D, everyone but Wagner has gashed them. CCSU is on a 5 game losing streak, 2-3 ATS in those, Overs 4-1. Overs are actually 8-1 on the year in CCSU games as they can pretty reliably be counted on for 20-24 pts while giving up who knows how many each week. I was surprised to see that CCSU holds a 23-6 series advantage. SFU won last year, but had lost 4 straight before that. The regression this year has been big for SFU. Seeing them still a 7 pt road fav vs a team they historically struggle against is a lot. I would want to take them, but don’t think I can lay that many points.

Duquesne blows their shot to clinch the NEC at home last week, now have a winner take all game at Merrimack! Duquesne could not over come -4 turnovers last week. Back-to-back fumbles lost in the 1Q led to a Stonehill scoop-score and another 13y drive after the other fumble. It was 17-0 just 7 minutes into the game. Duq came back to lead 21-20 HT, but the troubles continued with an INT thrown at the S07 and SOD at the S30 and S33 on two of their last 3 possessions to lose by 5. Really rough day by Perrantes 9 of 25 passing, but for 298! (1-2 ratio). Great yards per completion, but that is his third game below 50% this year (avg 52%). The Duke’s run D has been quite an issue the last two weeks as well, allowed 214 (4.0) vs Stonehill and two games ago allowed 226 (5.4) vs Wagner – both well above those team’s averages. Concerning. Duq only outgained Stonehill by +23y, Wagner outgained them by 49y and were +50y vs SFU. Vs the two worst teams in the league, that is where Duquesne flourishes, +257y in the 27-0 win over SHU and +312y in the 44-20 win over CCSU. Merrimack was in a similar situation last year, when they hosted St Francis and the NEC championship was on the line, SFU beat them 52-23. That SFU team was better than anyone in the league this year however. Merrimack is eligible for the first time in their history for the FCS playoffs after their transition from Dll, this is quite the game for them to have this week with the playoff autobid on the line. Merrimack’s startt this season was quite disappointing (1-3 SU), but have since won 4 of 6, 4 of 5 vs FCS and are 5-1 ATS lately having outgained their last 4 FCS opponents. It is very heavy on the run, they don’t pass much but have a highly rated pass eff O when they do. Merrimack has 2 KO ret TDs, a punt ret TD and a pick-six on the year. This is a tough game. Duquesne has been the better team all year, but they have some weaknesses you don’t want to have on the road like bad run D and an up-down QB. Merrimack is a little one-dimensional on O, but have some defensive strengths. At home, they will be tough to beat given the circumstances.

San Diego – Stetson - pass

How does SEMO recover? Loss to Robert Morris of all teams and was outgained in that one by 78y. Follow it up by being dominated by UT Martin, lost by 27 and outgained by 369y! In a year full of heart breaking losses and head scratching games they are now 4-6 with their starting QB having missed the last 3 games. In the 5 FCS games before his injury, SEMO avg 421.5 ypg – in the 3 games since his injury they have avg just 268 and it’s gotten worse every week. They got down so quick vs UTM last week that Geno Hess was relegated to an afterthought, just 8 carries for a -2 yard total! I think you are going to see a big effort by this offense and Hess to control the game on the ground this week. Hess is a former AA RB, a 5th year player, so I don’t know with covid year and eligibility but this may be his last college game. Problem is that the SEMO rushing attack has been really inconsistent this year. Couldn’t run last week, couldn’t run on Tenn Tech, couldn’t run on EKU earlier this year. Since the bye week Bryant is playing their best football, 3-2 SU, but the two losses both came in OT by 1 pt. Avg 407 ypg in those. The Bryant run D has been vulnerable at times this year. They allowed 6.5 ypc to the E ILL RBs, 5.95 to the Charleston Southern RBs, Gardner Webb really ran on them with the running QB King, but the GW RBs gained 4.8 ypc on them. So if that is the gameplan for SEMO to get Hess the ball a lot, that should work out ok for them. If SEMO is going to try some normal gameplan like they have had lately, that probably isn’t going to go so well. Bryant has gone Over 5 of the last 6 (avg total 53). SEMO D has been pretty bad all season, and the Bryant O is very capable with Zevi at QB and haven’t seen much lately out of SEMO D to want to back them. Think I’d have to go with Bryant to win, but am fearful of what a possessed Geno Hess can do if the gameplan and OL is committed to him.

Morehead and Presbyterian – pass

Morgan at Howard is interesting! Both teams can win the MEAC! If Howard wins, they are MEAC champs. If Morgan wins then they would need Delaware St to beat NCCU to be MEAC champs (highly unlikely). The biggest question here is, does Howard already feel like they won the MEAC? Was beating NCCU last week all that mattered to them? It isn’t going to be easy. I mean it was easy last week they were a team on a mission like I have rarely seen before. Where was that in the 3 pt loss at SC State? Where was that in the 7 pt win over Delaware St? Where was that in the 4 pt win over Norfolk St? What we saw last week was Howard at their absolute very best. What we saw from Howard in the weeks before that was something very mediocre. In their other 6 FCS games this year, the Howard O averaged just 329 ypg. Vs NCCU, they racked up 521! They avg just 24 ppg in those other games, they scored 50 last week! They held NCCU 170y below their O ssn avg. You know who else did that? Morgan. The Morgan D held NCCU to the same yardage, but a lower ypp and held NCCU to just 3 1H pts and just 16 pts overall. Better than Howard. This Morgan D is an elite MEAC and HBCU D. Five times this year they have held other FCS or FBS (Akron) offenses below 260 ttl yards. Problem for Morgan is you don’t get a lot of offense with that team and you generally get some really bad QB play. As such, Unders are 6-1 with some really low totals (avg 41.8). It is a pretty easy offense to limit (avg 247 ypg). Only Yale put any kind of number on them, the other 8 games, the Morgan D allows just 19.38 ppg. Some of the scoring is misleading because there have been a total of 8 non-offensive TDs in their games. Like trying to predict so many games, what team shows up? If Howard from last week shows up, they win and could beat anyone in the SWAC with that kind of effort and passion. But, what about all those other weeks, those Howard teams? Gun to head, I’d pick Howard to win straight up, but would hedge with Morgan and the pts.

Colgate is pretty hot right now, won 5 of their last 6 – 4 as underdogs. They only outgained 2 of their 5 they won though. Won as a favorite for the first time last week vs Lehigh. 6 straight Overs (avg total 47.4). Since the Holy Cross game, the Fordham O has slowed to a near crawl. Were avg 34.75 ppg and 456.5 ypg in their first 8 games. But just 27 pts with 487y on Bucknell and 16 pts on just 366y vs the good Lafayette D. Montes still just has the 1 INT all year, 25-1 ratio. Fordham O away has not been good as at home, held to some of their lowest point and yard totals on the road. 23.8 ppg on the road vs 40.4 ppg at home and the Fordham D has never been good. Think this is a spot for a hot Colgate team to close out the season with a nice home effort. Fordham only beat similar teams Lehigh by 3 and Bucknell by 6 – and those were at home. Playoff Fordham won by 24 at home last year. But 2021, Colgate won 45-31 as 10 pt home dog.

Albany is playing a CAA championship and possibly for a seed in the playoffs if they win. The CAA tie breaking scenarios are pretty convoluted, it is really too much to speculate. Step #1 is they must beat Monmouth. Monmouth has been a good offensive team all season except when they played a good Lafayette D. But that was just week 4 and since then the Monmouth O has done pretty well vs the better CAA Ds. Albany’s D is a tough test for them however. Monmouth normally likes to run for like 200-300 yards a game. New Hampshire decided they would not lose that way, so Monmouth proceeded to throw for 400y and one WR in particular, Dymere Miller caught 11-333-2TDs! But as we know, UNH is a bad defensive team, so Albany will be much better vs whatever Monmouth tries to do. The Monmouth D on the other hand, well it is bad. Knowing that William & Mary went for 438 yards on the Monmouth D is enough evidence although there is plenty. Albany doesn’t have a killer O, but coupled with their D they are a complete team. Have outgained their last 4 opponents by 171 ypg. Have faced a good Villanova and New Hampshire offense earlier this season so they should be ready for the Monmouth O whether by ground or by air. It is pretty much the biggest home game since Albany joined the CAA – championship on the line, at home, playing a bad defensive team and just a 5.5 pt spread? They were 5 pt home fav vs a better D team in W&M (although a more limited O team). They were a 5 pt home fav against URI (a pretty good passing O team, not great D). Seems like this line should be a little higher? Unless the moment is going to be too big for Albany? Can’t believe that will be the case. In the even of a 3-way tie, the CAA does use point differential. Right now Albany is behind Delaware by 5 points. The CAA caps any margin of victory at 21 pts, so if a team beats another by 22 pts, only 21 will count towards their overall differential. Knowing this, if in position to score more, Albany would surely like to as it may help their tie breaking positions. Maybe that helps the Over too?

The battle of the blue! Villanova at Delaware! This should be a good one! Strange to read that Delaware has not beat Villanova at home since 2004, 8 straight. And Villanova has won 11 straight overall, in the fall. Delaware did win in the spring 2021 season. Each team is good, while rare, each team has had a struggle this year. Delaware was down by 18 at home to UNH before coming back to win by 4. Then just a couple weeks ago Elon continuously torched them with deep passes and the Hens lost 3 TOs contributing to that 6 pt loss. Other than that game, Delaware has outgained CAA teams by 195 ypg this year. Villanova was dominated at Albany back in September (sacked 7x and harassed several more times). Since then they have outgained opponents 277 ypg on average. Both teams start fast and typically are strong 1H teams. Tough game to pick really, not sure. Delaware’s top RB Marcus Yarns is banged up, only got 1 carry last week. He is a difference maker if healthy.

Turnovers have told the tale for Hampton the last couple weeks. -5 last week vs W&M, yards even but lost by 21. +3 vs Maine, outgained by -117y and won by 7. Hampton D did well vs the limited W&M O last week. In their recent games prior have allowed 460ypg the last 5 before W&M. They give it up by ground or air. Elon has been a good FCS dog who wins (4-3 ATS but all 4 dog covers were outright wins) – as a favorite Elon is just 1-1 ATS as fav. Last year Hampton was +19.5 at home and only lost by 4 the second to last week of the year, Elon was a playoff team last year. They had a shot at being a playoff team this year, but lost at Richmond allowing 235 rushing yards (6.0) and 75% completions. I really don’t like either of these teams so I am stopping there.

A lot of points for New Hampshire to cover, 18.5 vs Maine in the battle for the musket. Playoff bound UNH won by 1 last year vs a 2-9 Maine team. The year prior 6-5 Maine won 33-20 as a 2pt road fav. There isn’t much about UNH this year that makes me think they should be this high of a favorite. Maine is not Stony Brook, that is the only team that UNH has really put it on since week 1 this year. And Maine took it to SB as well, so that is to be expected. UNH has been dogged the last 3 weeks, but earlier as a favorite UNH went 1-2 ATS vs their CAA foes, losing two straight up and they did beat Albany by 7, but that game really could’ve went either way. Now they are -18.5? Brosmer got hurt last week. Laube got hurt last week. I’m sure those guys will do everything they can to get on the field for this one. Maine is off a very late season bye, but checking the Miane O, they have put up 433 ypg and 32.5 ppg their last 6. Watch those turnovers though, Maine is -8 their last 3 games and all were losses. The backdoor is but one way they could cover this and other UNH games show that there are a variety of ways Maine could cover.

Rhode Island hit rock bottom with the rough home loss to Richmond, then the ugly loss at Albany, but have responded with a solid win vs UNH at home in OT and then beat A&T on the road last week. Not exactly top teams, but they present some challenges that URI was able to deal with and without a playoff bid to play for, they got off the mat. They are running more, 39-286 last week. 29-168 the week prior. Those are some of their higher attempt and better rushing yard games on the year. After attempting 36 passes per game the first 8, they have thrown just 31 and 20 the last two weeks. Pretty bad 3rd down team though just 29% the last 3 weeks. The D gave up 370y to A&T which was their second best output in CAA play. UNH gained 542 on them, Albany 540 – not a good URI D. Towson is a bad D team, like really bad. Allowed 558y the last 3 weeks (did face Nova and Delaware in that span). This line is too low to take Towson, probably goes up after open.

Richmond has won 5 straight and 5-0 ATS including an upset win at Rhode Island. They have the O working at a high level the last two weeks vs Campbell and Elon (not great defenses). Richmond D is equally impressive. William & Mary D should still put up a challenge and this is a instate rivalry game. But W&M was down their starting QB last week and were outgained vs Hampton, but +4 on the TO margin on them the game (had a rather improbable pick-six that deflected off a players foot). Last game for all those good W&M D players, I assume they care this week – that D just isn’t as good as it once was. W&M can spoil rival Richmond’s playoff chances and maybe even CAA title chances if the right tie breaker scenario hits. More to like on the Richmond side right now though.

Seeing Campbell as any kind of favorite right now, especially on the road? Team looks like a bunch of quit has sunk in. Lost 7-45 vs Delaware (outgained by 118y), lost 7-59 at UNC (outgained by 307y), lost 13-44 at Richmond (outgained by 174y) – this Campbell D wasn’t good before, but now the O has gone away too – just 206y on Richmond and just 288y on Delaware? NC A&T’s D has gotten a little shakier the last couple weeks, but the O is coming around. 370y and 24 pts on URI. 501y and 32 pts on Towson. This is same O that was held below 200y vs Nova, Delaware and Richmond in successive weeks mid season. Overs 6 of the last 7. Unders were 3-0 to start the year. A&T has the running game going 200+ and 5 ypc the last two weeks. Campbell is not a good D, especially run D. A&T’s only win this year was on the road, they go all out at home for this one and Campbell appears to no longer be fighting.

UTM just played a great game against a spiraling SEMO team. Smoked cigars and all. Up and down team though. Won big last week, 44-41 OT win vs Tenn Tech (odd), lost a close one vs GW who is good. Only beat CSO 17-0, game before that only beat EIU by 1 as 14 pt fav. UTM is 0-3 their last road fav roles, both DD fav spots went to OT and the other they lost straight up. High turnover team which hurt them in those games. Lost 2 TOs to SEMO (one went pick-six) but SEMO was too weak to have it matter. Samford only outgained by -58y and -79y vs the better SoCon teams in Mercer and Furman (lost by 7 and 6) and earlier in the year they actually outgained Chattanooga by 44y in a 23 pt loss. UTM last week acted like they won something, all they won was a share of the Big South / OVC and if Gardner Webb wins this week vs CSO that share will be lost on a tie breaker. Seemed like they acted like their season was done. Travel to Samford who has dangerous O still, think I like the home dog to cover if not win.

Charleston Southern doesn’t play good on the road. Lost to RM, shut out at UTM. Before that lost big at WCU and at Clemson. Should’ve had a bigger lead at RM in the 1H, maybe 17-0 but instead it was just 6-0. CSO D keeps average offenses down, but not good ones (see Bryant for example). Gardner Webb O is in the good category for sure right now with King in full control of that O. GW is good team, I don’t think I can lay this many though, haven’t had this kind of favorite role this year. Did win 35-0 last week vs Tenn Tech, but only outgained them by 3 yards (232-229)! Two pick-sixes and another short field TD.

ETSU really struggles to score vs anyone good. 7 last week at WCU, 8 at Furman, 3 at UTC, 6 vs Mercer, 3 at Austin Peay. But they have scored 24 on VMI and 41 on Wofford. 28 on Samford (although Samford outgained them by 205y). So one would think this is a week that they score all they like vs The Citadel. Citadel has scoring problems of their own, 3 to Wofford last week. 7 on Samford. 13 on VMI – pretty soft Ds and Citadel still can’t score on them. The yardage differential is way better now though. Even with the Samford game, The Citadel has only been outgained by 73 ypg their last 5 compared to 304 ypg their first 5! Avg margin of loss is getting closer too. 15.6 the last 4 and 36.8 the first 5. Despite the improvement, they have only snuck one cover in those last 5. Tough to lay it, would want to take it, but Citadel just keeps showing they aren’t good enough to back.

Stonehill off surprising win at Duquesne. Benefitted from +4 margin there. Haven’t been an awful team this year, just not a good one either. This is just their 4th home game all year, and just their 3rd NEC home game. They are 2-0 ATS at home this year vs NEC +6.5 on a 5 pt loss vs SFU and +1.5 on a 3 pt overtime win vs SHU. They have been in almost all of their NEC games, Merrimack only outgained them by 27y in that 11 pt loss and Wagner only outgained them by 63y in that 11 pt loss. Normally run D is a problem for them (although it wasn’t last week). LIU is off a huge 49-14 win vs Wagner, but the stat sheet doesn’t mirror the scoreboard dominance - they only outgained them by 36 yards. It was tied 14-14 HT and 35-14 after a short field TD following a punt return and then LIU got 2 TDs off TOs (one a fumble return). As a favorite LIU is 2-3 ATS, upset twice. As a road fav 0-1 as a 3 pt chalk in the 2 pt win at CCSU. It really is not that great of a D to be laying road pts with and Stonehill has some capability at QB, RB and WR.

 

[s--k]

7 of 8 Eastern Kentucky games have been decided by 6 points or less with 5 of those 7 coming down to the final play. The one game that was decided by more than 7 pts was a 10 pt EKU win where they were outgained by 100y at UNA. It is amazing how many of their games have seen comebacks, blown leads, game winning FGs or FGs as time expired to force OT, or kicks that were missed that could’ve won the game, 4th downs, hail marys - it has been something like that in all of them. As it is, the dog is 7-1 ATS in EKU FCS games. EKU O scores 32.25 ppg – EKU D allows 30.87 ppg. EKU O averages 467.1 ypg – EKU D allows 471.6 ypg. That is really damn close. And EKU has had to come from behind a lot, they were behind at HT in 4 and tied at HT in two others. So seeing them as a full score favorite makes one want to consider the other side. SFA has been bad lately. SFA was pretty good the first half of the year – beat Alcorn pretty bad, beat NW State bad (as they should’ve), only lost by 2 to a good Austin Peay team, beat Texas AM Commerce really bad – opened 4-1 SU and ATS. But then they were upset by Utah Tech and with that result and since they are just 1-4 ATS and 0-5 SU. They did only lose to Utah Tech by 6 and UCA by 3 and ACU by 7, but the last two weeks have been especially bad losing by 28 and 42 to Southern Utah and Tarleton State (-5 TOs). Outgained in those last two by 166 and 169 yards. SFA has the UAC’s worst scoring O and the worst scoring D! It doesn’t feel right to do it, but I’d rather have EKU in the home finale in Parker McKinney’s final college game. EKU may still be thinking about being “cheated” on the clock at UCA last week though…

Delaware State is one of the worst teams in the country. If Norfolk can beat them by 23, well then, I mean South Carolina State beat them by 28, so…. Delaware State has avg just 229.5 ypg on O their last 4 games. They were outgained by 258y and 370y respectively vs Delaware St and SC State. This should be NC Central taking out major frustration and anger after getting embarrassed by Howard last week. NCCU was among the top teams in the country, they had gone 3-0 vs the CAA, they had commanding victories vs the teams that just blew out Delaware State. Cautionary tale, NCCU has won the last 3 games in the series, but just by 7, 6 and 7, as such Delaware St has covered the last 3 in the series. QB Richard did get injured somewhat last week, he only missed a play or two, not sure how that impacts him this week – really with or without him, or with him not 100% they should be good enough in this one. Big line still.

YSU could come out like they are disappointed and embarrassed by the SDSU game last week and whether their season gets extended with the playoffs or not, if this is their last game or not, for themselves for their program they come out wanting to play their best game and put it on Murray State. I’ve said a few times that Illinois State and YSU remind me of eachother and Illinois State just beat them 44-7. YSU is very capable of that. This game is at Murray State. Penguins have not played their best on the road this year and Murray seems to play decent at home – only lost to UND by 14, kind of hung in there vs SIU (pushed on +21), beat Indiana State at home (meh). I thought I’ve had a good pulse on YSU this year, except for last week and now I just don’t know how they finish the year.

I would like Illinois State better if Annexstad was starting. They haven’t ruled him out, but I think that Rittenhouse is starting and on the road here, UND is pretty tough at home 5-0 SU, but the last game was a weird 36-33 OT win over Indiana State. UND is 0-4 ATS since the NDSU win. I like Illinois State running game and their D, like their receivers, just not sure I can or want to trust Rittenhouse on a small road dog line like this. Basically a playoff elimination game, no guarantee Illinois State gets in with a win, UND would likely get in with a win.

Super Fr RB Jawarn Howell DNP last week for SC State and is said to be out again, big loss. He had 80% of the ttl yards vs Howard, 39% of the yards vs NCCU and 22% of the yards vs Delaware St. Maybe they had become too reliant on him, or maybe it was the Morgan D, but SC State was held to an FCS season low 191 ttl yards in the 17-20 loss. SC State QB play is poor, 40% of worse in 4 of their last 6 games! Bad 3rd down O. Just a bad O without Howell in the game. Norfolk is kind of good, 7-1 ATS vs FCS! Just 1-0 ATS as a favorite – so they basically lose by less than expected. Did pull two upsets vs the CAA earlier this year in beating Howard and Towson. And their win as a favorite was last week in the 44-21 win over Delaware St (+258 tll yards). I think I can like them to win again. I thought SC State would win for coach Buddy Pough in his home finale last week, they didn’t. This would be his final game.

24 is a lot to cover for Southern Illinois, not sure they can score much more than 24! SIU is only averaging 15 ppg to MVFC teams not named Western Illinois! The most they have scored in those games is 33. The largest margin of victory vs those teams for SIU has been 21. SIU O is bad in a lot of ways (RZ TD scoring, 3rd downs, sacks allowed, running game). Which is strange because they really should not be - they have some players, must be the scheme and system. Indiana State has played hard all year, they finally got a deserving win vs W ILL last week. They are 5-2 ATS vs MVFC this year (6-1 if you got them as a dog vs Murray). Only lost to UNI by 7, only lost to USD by 14, only lost to UND by 3, only lost to YSU by 12. Offense is a little limited and SIU does have a strong D. Super low total, 37.5, wow. Unders are 5-3 in Ind St FCS games, but avg total is way higher (48.3). SIU is 8-2 to the Under in all games this year (avg total 51.6). SIU totals have recently been adjusted down, but not this low, 46 last week, 41.5 two weeks ago are the two lowest SIU has had this year, both went Under. Feel like this is the kind of game that as competitive as Indiana State has been, the SIU D can and should restrict them while SIU does a little here and a little there to slowly get up and build on their lead. Will they do enough to cover a 24 pt line? Hard to say yes to that. Could see like a 31-13 type game, so maybe go over this super low total? SIU has played some pretty solid to good Ds lately, NDSU, USD, SDSU – not counting W ILL, the last time they faced a not playoff level D was Murray and SIU only scored 27 pts on 407y (only 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips in that one). I am going to say that YSU is playoff caliber, so the other game before that SIU played who wasn’t was Missouri State. SIU scored 33 on them.

Central Arkansas at Austin Peay is a playoff play-in game. Central Ark really hasn’t played good football often this year, they underperform. Allowed EKU to go ahead late game and needed a hail mary to beat them last week. Lost at home to Tarleton. Struggled with SFA. Had to have huge comeback vs SEMO …. They did beat North Alabama somewhat comfortably (but pushed vs the spread). I just wonder, something isn’t what it should be with this team. They have been outgained in 3 of their last 4, the only one they weren’t was UNA. Austin Peay has been pretty good this year, especially at home with an average margin of victory of 27.5. That is of course boosted by the 63-3 win over ETSU. Take that out and avg in other 3 home games is 16.6. AP D has been run on every now and then and UCA would be able to exploit that. AP did beat GW pretty good, that was King’s first start at QB for GW and that game was close for most of the game that didn’t end close (GW has played much better since). Vs the better teams AP has played in EKU and SUU, those were both one score OT games, and AP was outgained in both – both were also on the road. Think if UCA plays to full potential, they can hang here, but at home got to think that AP wins.

Western Illinois’ final game in the MVFC as they move to Big South / OVC next year. They have been so awful this year, Indiana State just scored 27 unanswered on them last week. They are being held to 197 ttl yards vs MVFC and allowing 465 ypg. USD certainly has the D to do the same. W ILL allowing 44.7 ppg vs FCS. Only way USD doesn’t blow them out is if they are dreaming about the playoffs and their seeding position.

Montana State at Montana! One of, if not the biggest game in the recent series history. Outright Big Sky Title on the line. Playoff seeding position on the line for both. The last couple games in Bozeman have been big Cat wins, but this one is in Missoula and Griz won the last one 29-10 in 2021 and the 2018 game was a 4 pt Montana State win. So points here for the home team are appealing. Tend to think the Montana D can hold up if they get support from the O and aren't on the field too much. Question is more is this rejuvenated Griz O good enough vs this kind of D? They got it done in the 1H at Idaho and then just hung on, will need a 4Q offensive game this week. Montana State also played Idaho and Vandals held them nearly 200y below their ssn avg. Maybe not fair to compare anyone to SDSU, but the Jacks also kept this MTSU offense down, so it is possible and in some ways think that the Griz D is one of the units that can also do it. If the Montana O from the second half of the year shows up and shows up for a full 4Q this is going to be a fun one. Tough place to play, especially for a hated rival like this. Heard somebody compare last year's game to this year, I just don't believe that Montana right now is at all comparable to who they were last year.

I thought the situation would help Portland State last week, but sometimes certain teams are just so good they overcome let downs or look aheads and Portland State was dominated by Montana. Now they travel to little old winless Northern Colorado. UNC is much better at home, that is where they only trailed Idaho 13-20 before throwing a late game pick-six. That is where they only lost to Sac State by 8 with even total yardage. That is where they lost to Weber by 7 becaue of a pick-six in the final minutes. Something about how Big Sky opponents play in Greeley and something about how the UNC D plays at home. 3-0 ATS vs Big Sky at home, 0-4 ATS vs Big Sky on the road. I just really hate that offense and having to count on them to score some points. I'm not sure what will happen in this game.

Don't really like the hook if it is 14.5 for St Thomas, but do like them vs Valpo at home, maybe? Both teams off OT wins. This line is larger than the last two years (5 and 9.5) because Valpo appears quite a bit worse while St Thomas is also below average for them. They have been outgained in 3 of 7 Pioneer games this year. St Thomas is 4-2-1 vs Pioneer...but the lines they have covered have all been small, 1-1 ATS as DD fav. They did beat Marist 49-14 last home game, but only outgained them by 379-342. Game before that was 38-6 at Stetson (466-298 yards). It's heavy on the ground for St Thomas and that is bad for Valpo, teams who can run have done well vs them like Butler and Davidson. Valpo is so limited on O, just 289 ypg vs Pioneer. A lot to lay here, but St Thomas is still a good program with good fan support - I don't know, maybe I look for a 13.5 at open and go with that or just stay off it.

Prairie View A&M can win the SWAC West with a win and they are 7.5 pt dogs at home? It's kind of just fallen into PV's lap after they upset Southern last week and with Alcorn's unexpected loss last week, they are 5-2 in the league and so is Alcorn. Have to remember, this is the PV team that was shutout 0-30 at Houston Christian (-335 ttl yards) and FAMU beat them by 38 and FAMU hasn't beaten many by that kind of margin this year (-233 ttl yards). Let's face it, a lot of teams in the SWAC aren't good and PV is one of them. Alabama State has been playing some good ball 4-0 ATS and SU run with an upset win over Jackson State last month and since then have beat struggling A&M and Grambling teams. Unders 4 of last 5 for ASU as they are more of a good defensive team than a strong offensive one. PV isn't much to write home about on O or D. They have won the last two years vs ASU.

Tennessee Tech has been held to 3 pts or fewer in 3 of their last 5 games. But then they also took UTM to OT and lost 41-44, scored 28 at SC State and scored 38 at RM, but that was with just 255 ttl yards (think they scored 3 non-offensive TDs in that one). That is college football, score 41 one week with your QB having a 5-0 ratio vs a good team in UTM and get shut out at home the next week vs an equal good team in GW with the same QB having an 0-3 ratio. GW just had 232 ttl yards though (two pick-sixes). Tenn Tech has played some good D at times vs the lesser teams. Tenn State was kind of riding high, but lost the last two weeks by 14 and 13 although the games were played more even than those final scores - at least for the 1H. Rough 2Hs for TSU in each of the last two. TSU is 0-3 ATS as a favorite. TSU has won the last two by 16 and 7, but were small dogs in each.

Need to go faster.

Missouri State was already down their top QB, and now their good RB broke his arm last week I'm pretty sure. They have played decent at times this year, but not today against SDSU. YSU beat them by 16, NDSU beat them by 28, SIU beat them by 13 - all were kind of challenging games to beat them by those margins. I just don't know how you go against what SDSU is doing, especially at home. Big line vs a not awful team, but SDSU beat UNI with a similar line 41-6. They beat USD 37-3. Maybe at the end Missouri State is somehow hanging around the number, but I won't be on them to see.

Alcorn needs to beat Jackson State and hope that Prairie View loses for them to win the SWAC West. Really is a shame that Alcorn finds themselive in this situation, but they lost last week to Texas Southern and they lost bad! Before that they had won 5 in a row ATS and SU. Teams have off games, kids don't play as well off a big game as they should, so it happens. If they play like they have for most of the season they are going to be a tough out for Jackson. I've been on Jackson a few times this year and man are they a frustrating team to have to have win by margin to cover. Last time out they nearly lost to Texas Southern as a 14.5 pt fav. Failed to cover stupidly vs MVSU, lost to ASU, almost lost the cover vs A&M, only beat Bethune by 6. The one good game over their latst 6 was beating lowly Ark PB by 26. 2-4 ATS lately, most of those lines were bigger. They are 2-1 ATS as a single digit fav as they were in the first 3 games of the season. But I have seen them play bad ball, especially on O and Alcorn has a good DL. Alcorn QB is probably better than Jackson has seen in a while also. I can take Alcorn here in a must win game after a disappointing and surprising loss last week. The Coach Prime DD win Jackson State teams of the last two years beat them by 11 and 14. We know this team ain't that.

I like UC Davis here. I wished that Sac State was playing UCD last week as there were a lot of red flags for Sac State in that Montana game. Sac State looked pretty bad vs Cal Poly on D - allowed 539 yards! Fortunately for them it was just CP and Sac State was able to get by with that kind of poor effort and still win by 11. They won't today. It looks like the coaching change, the QB shuffling, some of the personnel losses are finally catching up with them and like the CP win, fortunately for them, it really hasn't hurt them all that much in the W-L record as they could still be a playoff team, if they win. But I don't think they win. There are issues on that team. And even though I call UCD an average team, they are good average in what they do and they give good effort all the time. UCD is likely not a playoff team, they were kind of lost at sea in the middle part of the season, but they got their leader Lan Larison back a couple games ago and are a proud bunch and they close out their season with a home win tonight.

Incarnate Word may think they still have a playoff shot. Haven't played worth a damn pretty much all year so not like they will just flip a swich and come out and roll now. They are better than Houston Christian, or should be. HCU on a 3 game win streak, but it isn't very impressive. UIW should be able to cover this line, but I'm not going to be involved to see it.

FAMU went with their depth players I believe last week vs Lincoln, good move. Big line here vs Bethune. FAMU is kind of hot, have covered two in a row now after being 0-4 ATS as a fav previously. Bethune is kind of hot themselves with two straight comfortable wins, still think they are pretty bad. I've seen too many FAMU games to want to lay over 2 TDs with them still.

Like Eastern Washington to bounce back in home finale after the beat down MTSU gave them last week.

Biggest favorite role for Lamar all year, actually have only been favored twice, both 3/3.5. They did beat Commerce by 20 and they beat NW State by 14, they weren't all that impressive in the box score doing it however. McNeese is rough.

Northern Iowa was so off last week, looked like a different team. Back in the friendly confines of the UNI-dome this week vs NDSU. Two sometimes good teams here, NDSU is more of a better sometimes good team than UNI. I look for UNI QB and passing game to resemble themselves this week assuming last week was just a one-off.

Have heard that McCoy may be kind of hurt for Idaho. They are limping down the stretch here a little, played a bad game at Northern Colorado and played a bad game vs an energized Weber last week. Idaho State gives it all they got every week and they play the last play like they do the first. This is a lot of pts and ISU has hung in big numbers before this year.

Like the Southern Utah team, just don't want to have to expect them to cover a DD road line vs a usually pesky Utah Tech team.

Davidson does not control their Pioneer title or playoff destiny, but after a SIX turnover game and loss to Morehead, they should get it fixed this week. Davidson has historically struggled with Dayton however. This is a bad Dayton team and this is the last game Davidson will every play in their current stadium. I'll probably go with them if the line is 13.5 or 14

Weber at Cal Poly is our final and "the late game" 8:00 eastern kick. Weber playing some good ball here with the QB change, found the way they want to operate on O and the D is tough. Cal Poly hung with Sac State for reasons I think are unique to Sac State. CP was held to just 288 ttl yards the week prior vs EWU. I don't know how interested I am to lay the road pts with Weber here even though they are improved.

Got to run here and figure out what I want now, lines start coming out soon.

 

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I have interest and looking for these:

UTC - Alabama Under
North Alabama + a monster line
GT/HC Over
Brown +
Drake +
WCU -
Marist +
SFU -
Harvard +
Bryant -
Morgan +
Colgate +
Albany & Over
Villanova +
Maine +
Princeton +
Cornell & Over
NC A&T +
Samford +
Stonehill +
EKU - (may need blood pressure medicine)
NCCU -
Norfolk & Under
Ind St/SIU Over
UCA +
USD -
Montana +
St Thomas - 13.5/14 or less
PV +
Alcorn +
EWU -
UNI +
ISU +
Davidson -13.5/14 or less

That is a lot of games

I think that NC A&T and UC Davis would be my two I like best. Campbell and Sac State I view as weak road favorites. Not sure they will open or stay favored. I trust A&T and Davis to win those games, so if they flip to small favs I will just ML them. May also ML SFU is appropriately priced. Colgate and Maine could be good dog MLs. Have a hard time believing that UNI doesn't respond with an A+ game this week. I don't know, a lot to be looking for - that is the fun, seeing what you can get these lines at!

 

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Not alot of movement on the actual lines so far at BM. Bucknell opened 17.5 went to 17 pretty quick. UTC/Bama Under was 51.5 went to 49.5

 

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Uh Oh

Logged out and logged back in to fix that

 

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Yale 1.5 to 3 now

Bama went from 45.5 to 43, but total went from 51.5 to 49.5 now to 53

 

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Wow BM opened Sac State -4

ESPN is showing a time change from 5:00 to 3:00 on that one

 

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The final regular season week is in the books.

A good number of upsets today, 19 I count. Two HUGE ones in the So Con! Actually 3 pretty big ones.

Cole Gonzales gets hurt in the 1Q and VMI beats Western Carolina! That likely keeps WCU out of the playoffs, Had such a nice early season going, but lost 3 of their last 5.

And Wofford! Wofford at +850 beats Furman! I don't know if they would've been seeded this high, but there was talk that Furman could be in line for a #2 seed in the playoffs. Now, do they get a seed at all?! Wow. Wofford gave WCU a game two weeks ago, good for them.

More So Con upsets! UT Martin acted like they won something last week, they must've forgot they had another game. Samford took it to them.

Drake comes from behind to secure the Pioneer Championship and auto-bid. Staying in the Pioneer....WTF Davidson! Davidson! Lost back-to-back weeks as 2 TD favorites! Once Drake won earlier today they would've known they could not win the league or get into the playoffs, but really, series history says that Dayton pretty much owns them. Wow.

The Game was pretty crazy, like Yale could've either won in a blowout, or Harvard could've won outright - both of those possibilities could very well have happened, instead Yale won by 5. Good game. 3-way tie for Ivy title, but really Yale beat the other two straight up, so we all know who the real champ is.

Colgate ends the season absolutely on fire!

Albany dominates! Villanova dominates! Richmond survives a D PI in the EZ with no time left and then a TD on an untimed down and then a failed 2pt conversion attempt to escape with the win. I thought Campbell had quit...well they kinda did again in the 2H, wish they would've played like that in the 1H.

NCCU drops the hammer on Delaware State, but Howard win the MEAC.

Prairie View wins the SWAC West and will face FAMU for SWAC title, kind of a shame because Alcorn - FAMU would've been a better game. Was a big upset in the SWAC, Pine Bluff beat Texas Southern as 20pt dog! Texas Southern had decided to not renew their head coach for next year, they hoped it wouldn't get out, ah yeah.

The Griz, what a game, what a team! I kind of really like Bobby Hauck this year. He brings a smile to my face, that was weird to say. "that was an ass kicking" yes it was Bobby. Hey Montana State, here is an idea, you know Sean Chambers is pretty good QB too....maybe you should've played him?

Vandals put up 56 1H pts without their QB! UNC almost beats another team at home but comes up short. NAU wins on the red turf (so much for Eastern being better this year). Davis! UC Davis - awesome 1H and good enough 2H.

UNI ends this year like they started it, getting sacked and throwing picks. NDSU will get some shit for the way they lost to USD and UND, the loss to SDSU is respectable I think, but that is still a really tough team.

Fun day. Fun season.

Will have some playoff thoughts tonight or tomorrow. Here are the 10 auto-bid conference champions:

 

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My at-large playoff teams would be, in no particular order:

South Dakota, Idaho, North Dakota State, Montana State, Albany, Mercer, Delaware, NC Central, North Dakota, Southern Illinois, Holy Cross, Richmond, UT Martin, #14 undecided.

It is actually difficult to come up with 12 teams let alone 14. Several I purposefully skipped over because I really don't think they have done enough or beat enough good teams. I didn't think I would be picking Holy Cross, but I will say this, 2 of their losses were to FBS which doesn't really hurt and I think I have a higher regard for the Patriot League this year than most people do or would. UT Martin is an 'ok I guess I'll pick them'. 14 teams is too many, 24 teams is too many.

 

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Definitely out
Holy Cross

Holy Cross is 7-4 with only two FCS losses. However, the Crusaders don't have a signature win. That'll keep a team that made the quarterfinals on the outside looking in.

Holy Cross in or out is going to be controversial, probably more controversial if they get in. No signature win? The answer is 49-20 at Yale, this year's Ivy League champion. NCAA's own website should know better.

UIW​

UIW only has one FCS loss. The Cardinals are in.

Pathetic

Sacramento State​

Sacramento State doesn't have a ranked win at 7-4. However, the Hornets do have an FBS win to offset the hole in their resume. All of Sacramento State's losses are good losses — even its season-ending loss to UC Davis.

Speaking of which, an FBS win and quality losses separate the Hornets from UC Davis even after Week 12's game. Those factors will ultimately get Sacramento State one of the last spots.

Undeserving

 

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[CPA-hole]

I hope Holy Cross gets in. I really like that program.

 

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I hope Holy Cross gets in. I really like that program.

I would select them, but it is going to be really close for them.

 

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Very surprised YSU is in

 

[CPA-hole]

Boo. No Holy Cross.

 

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Hard to put UTC in and not put WCU in. Don't think Sac State is very good. YSU doesn't deserve it. But at least Incarnate Word isn't in. Holy Cross wins one of the games they lost to Harvard/BC/Army they probably get in. Patriot League is not respected very much, they got two teams last year, but Fordham had a better record.

There will be a separate playoff thread for those interested.