Not for the faint of heart perhaps (most sizable ML dog plays aren't)...
FIU +797
I'll admit I sat with an FIU ticket last year nervously watching the Panthers fade in their loss to Indiana, a game that FIU actually led 13-12 entering the 4th before falling 13-34 in a game with IU capitalizing on 2 pick-sixes and a safety. The wheels may never have been installed on that wagon last year, but if so, they came off in game 1 and it was all down hill from there and a surging UCF embarrassed FIU (0-3 and off losing to UMass) in week 4.
Entering his 4th year starting is QB McGough who's claim to fame was his Soph 2015 season 2722py-64%21-8 ratio. Surrounding weapons include 4th year RB Gardner who is already FIU's career rushing leader and in 2015 catch 60 receptions as well. Fellow RB Jones can be very productive on his own, however he suffered a knee injury in camp and his availability is in question. At WR Thomas Owens has led in yards the last 2 seasons hauling in a combined 98-1290-15TDs in that span. 3 newcomers got their feet wet last season as frosh combining for 77-961. The TE targets will be missed, Jonnu Smith was #1 receiver before the final 3 games after his girlfriend poured boiling water on him! Two grad transfers will try and fill that void. The OL will be a question after losing arguably the 3 best starters from last year. Jordan Budwig hasn't played since Nov 2014 as a Soph. He had started every game of his career up to that point and was their top OL. He retore his shoulder in 2015 attempting to comeback, but is scheduled to be back in the lineup August 31. According to weight room accounts, he has his strength back. Will he be as good as he was before the injury and what do the other pieces around him look like? If Budwig returns to form that will give them 3 with starting exp on the OL. Poor QB play was the biggest thing holding back the O last year. McGough needs to regain the 2015 form and the O needs to maintain the improved rushing production from last year.
The other side of the ball boasts alot of experience. Sr LBs Williams and Wint are each zeroing in on 2nd most career tackle list and Wint is 121 from the all-time record (he had 109 last season). The DL has 3 starters and 6 of the top 8 look to be upperclassman. CBs Brown and Lubin (combined 15 starts '16) have been praised for both their strength and weight gain coupled with faster 40 times this camp. The S are both Sr and combined for 100 tkls last year. Former S Johnson who started 6 as a true in 2015 (#3 tkl'r) has been moved to LB (has highest vertical on team). The D has been among the lower tier CUSA, but reasonable outlook for this unit and the new staff could be improvement along the lines of the 2014 D if the schemes are to the personnel's liking.
Now the 2016 game vs UCF is of particular concern, after all many of these players started that game and FIU was dominated. As mentioned before these teams were on different trajectories at that point. UCF had just narrowly lost to Maryland the week prior and came out to lay some wood to this reeling FIU squad.
Interestingly, after that game, once AAC play began for UCF, the Knights were outgained in every single game the rest of the year. 373-521 ECU, 296-364 Temple, 400-413 UConn,195-398 Houston, 297-348 Tulane, 305-327 Cincy, 321-474 Tulsa, 402-503 USF. In 5 of those 8 games UCF failed to even rush for 100 yards while allowing their opponents to rush on average for 205 ypg. Yet they managed to win 4 of those 8 games. What UCF was particularly good at last season was getting turnovers on D (and non-offensive TDs). 11 of those 15 INTs are gone spread across 4 players. The DL will be among the AAC's best and LB is anchored by returning AAC D POY Griffin, although the other 3 LB positions is a little uncertain. The 2016 UCF secondary was among the nation's best, unfortunately for them all 4 SR starters from that unit are gone and is a huge question mark.
UCF QB Milton should grow and improve in his 2nd year and while they have a go-to receiver in Smith, other pieces need to emerge in this offense. This offense ranked just 10th out of 12 AAC teams (actually last ypp with just 4.68). 36 sacks allowed is alarmingly high for a team with a mobile QB. This OL should take a few steps forward this season however with more experience and a year together in the new system.
So we know what happened last year between these teams.
But they also played the opener in 2015. Now that of course was the year that UCF went 0-12. They were however coming off a 9-4 season, I don't recall exactly where they were picked to finish that season (Holman entering his 2nd year as QB), they were -12 week 1 vs FIU and Panthers did outgain them 391-295 in a 15-14 win. Has the personnel of these teams changed so much since then? Is the 2016 game a true indicator of the personnel?
Scott Frost and company has certain rekindled what has historically been a strong program in Orlando and time will tell if Butch Davis can regain his college coaching mojo. What I wonder is there really that much of a talent gap currently between these two teams? What FIU might, give up in talent currently they make up for in experience. I think UCF has a few individual players that are better than their FIU counterparts, but I don't see it that way across the board.
The enthusiasm of the Davis hire surely hasn't just been realized by the fan base. If these players don't know about what he did at Miami, the success of the 30-for-30 Miami episodes essentially crowned Davis as the guy who handed Coker the teams he inherited. The take away from those shows is that Davis brought Miami back, he did it and now he is their guy. And Davis does have one of those pretty super bowl rings to flaunt. The buy in will be there. On the other hand maybe the growing pains will be too?
I think this could be a fun game, a competitive game. Just because I don't really see UCF, at this stage of the season, having an offense that strikes fear in a focus or even re-energized Panther D. The front 7 of the Knights will be tough, but on paper the secondary appears to be vulnerable and McGough has experience that one could think he can pull the strings to execute in that area...if we get the 2015 McGough insread of the 2016 McGough.
Only one way to find out, sit back and watch it all unfold. I like the +17. May have to throw .10 unit out there on the ML in case this is a close 4th qrt game to ramp up the excitement. FIU has alot of what I like to find in a big dog, experience, new found optimism, something to prove (revenge), playing a rival (probably a bigger rival for FIU than it is viewed as by UCF), and an opponent that doesn't appear as complete as perception (or point spread) might indicate.
