Week 3 ML Dogs

s--k said:
I have a Stanford shirt from that USC game. It says "biggest upset ever". Not by number probably, but based off where those programs were, that was huge one. It was awesome!
Click to expand...
No, it was right around the biggest number ever along with Temple over VPI at +38 or so.
 
s--k said:
The Kansas upset last night has inspired me to go out on a limb today (not like I need too much convincing anyway).

What about South Alabama +837 currently on scoresandodds.

Memphis has been known to occasionally be upset, last year they lost 3x as favorites (at Navy -7, at Tulane -14.5, bowl WF-3).

Last year Memphis beat South Alabama 52-35, however USA outgained them in the first half, tied 21-21 HT and only trailed by 4 entering the 4th qrt.

Last week Southern outgained Memphis in the 1st H, score 27-17 (Memphis ret'd blk'd punt and another blk'd punt set up 21y TD drive) - Memphis D did dominate in the 2nd H.

Memphis is without last year's super RB Henderson and their top RB this year, Patrick Taylor (1122y '18) is out this week. rFR and HS QB Kenny Gainwell has been getting most carries, he is only 191 lbs. Second string Kylan Watkins is only 178 lbs. The makeup of these two RBs is quite different than the Henderson-Taylor combo. Last year's excellent OL does have 3 new starters this year. Gainwell had a 46y TD run last week vs Southern, outside of that Memphis averaged just 3.2ypc.

It will be on Brady White more this week, however he isn't as good on the road as he is at home...in seven road/neutral games he's thrown 7 INTs (only 2 at home), just 10 TDs (17 at home) and completing only 55% of passes (72% at home).

Memphis DL may be without starting 300 lb O'Bryan Goodson this week who was out last week after injury vs Ole Miss.

USA RB Tra Minter is an impact player and the OL is breaking in just 1 new starter (JUCO at LT).

USA D isn't too bad has a couple good DLs (Turner and Beaton), Yancy at MLB is healthy this year and leading the way and a couple DBs that can impact the game or capitalize on or force any White errors in DJ Daniels and Jalen Thompson.

USA D did hold Nebraska to 276 TY in week 1 (4.73 ypp) and forced 3 turnovers.

BIGGEST CONCERN is going to be USA QB play. Cephus Johnson has thrown 2 INTs in each game so far this year...compared to last year's QBs this could be a liability.

From a Memphis perspective, I wouldn't feel great with the game being squarely on the shoulders of White without knowing they have a capable running game. For their D, maybe the 1st H vs Southern was a fluke as they did shut them down in the 2nd H and the D looked pretty good vs Ole Miss - so that Memphis D could impact this game.

From a South Alabama perspective, this is a statement game chance vs an established good program coming to their stadium in year 2 of Steve Campbell's tenure. A good running game and possibly an improved D should give them a chance coupled with White's historical worse production away from home.
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FWIW I did some queries on this game and found one you may be interested in....it compares total defense, offense, and turnover margin for similar games in week 4 or less. Turns out that the home team is 5-1 ATS full game but what I found interesting, and noted in the green box (see below), is the home team's ML record for 1st Qtr wagers is 5-0-1. USA is listed at +270ML for 1st Qtr at my book.

BOL s--k!!

usa.jpg
 
Hello there Gents! This is my last post before the games start. This is my query I've posted on and off again for the past couple of years. It is non-sensible and goes against the grain....but it basically says road dogs with lines less than 10 pts, worse total defense and both teams have negative turnover margins, and since the 2017 season have gone 28-23 SU and 37-13 ATS. It went 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS last week with BYU winning and Ohio losing. This week it is active on Ohio again, ECU, Southern Miss, FSU, and Northern Colorado. Just posting FYI....BOLTA today!!

mygoodquery.jpg
 
Appreciate it JRock, I don't have 1st qrt lines, but I'll take it as positive mojo

Hoping for a big day for everyone's plays!
 
Ahem....


Houston - Pirate mails some of these OOC game in sometimes

Temple - right, now Maryland is like really good or something. Whatever

Free Shoes - 4 and 5 Star athletes against kids we stole from powers like Marshall, Buffalo and Yale. Our kids also have to go to school.

Bowling Green State - LaTech has looked like doo doo.

Kentucky - barely beating Miami means you're about as good as UNC, maybe.

I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).





 
Maineroad said:
Ahem....


Houston - Pirate mails some of these OOC game in sometimes

Temple - right, now Maryland is like really good or something. Whatever

Free Shoes - 4 and 5 Star athletes against kids we stole from powers like Marshall, Buffalo and Yale. Our kids also have to go to school.

Bowling Green State - LaTech has looked like doo doo.

Kentucky - barely beating Miami means you're about as good as UNC, maybe.

I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).
Click to expand...
I was just coming in to give you props on that Citadel call....did you bet them?
 
s--k said:
The Kansas upset last night has inspired me to go out on a limb today (not like I need too much convincing anyway).

What about South Alabama +837 currently on scoresandodds.

Memphis has been known to occasionally be upset, last year they lost 3x as favorites (at Navy -7, at Tulane -14.5, bowl WF-3).

Last year Memphis beat South Alabama 52-35, however USA outgained them in the first half, tied 21-21 HT and only trailed by 4 entering the 4th qrt.

Last week Southern outgained Memphis in the 1st H, score 27-17 (Memphis ret'd blk'd punt and another blk'd punt set up 21y TD drive) - Memphis D did dominate in the 2nd H.

Memphis is without last year's super RB Henderson and their top RB this year, Patrick Taylor (1122y '18) is out this week. rFR and HS QB Kenny Gainwell has been getting most carries, he is only 191 lbs. Second string Kylan Watkins is only 178 lbs. The makeup of these two RBs is quite different than the Henderson-Taylor combo. Last year's excellent OL does have 3 new starters this year. Gainwell had a 46y TD run last week vs Southern, outside of that Memphis averaged just 3.2ypc.

It will be on Brady White more this week, however he isn't as good on the road as he is at home...in seven road/neutral games he's thrown 7 INTs (only 2 at home), just 10 TDs (17 at home) and completing only 55% of passes (72% at home).

Memphis DL may be without starting 300 lb O'Bryan Goodson this week who was out last week after injury vs Ole Miss.

USA RB Tra Minter is an impact player and the OL is breaking in just 1 new starter (JUCO at LT).

USA D isn't too bad has a couple good DLs (Turner and Beaton), Yancy at MLB is healthy this year and leading the way and a couple DBs that can impact the game or capitalize on or force any White errors in DJ Daniels and Jalen Thompson.

USA D did hold Nebraska to 276 TY in week 1 (4.73 ypp) and forced 3 turnovers.

BIGGEST CONCERN is going to be USA QB play. Cephus Johnson has thrown 2 INTs in each game so far this year...compared to last year's QBs this could be a liability.

From a Memphis perspective, I wouldn't feel great with the game being squarely on the shoulders of White without knowing they have a capable running game. For their D, maybe the 1st H vs Southern was a fluke as they did shut them down in the 2nd H and the D looked pretty good vs Ole Miss - so that Memphis D could impact this game.

From a South Alabama perspective, this is a statement game chance vs an established good program coming to their stadium in year 2 of Steve Campbell's tenure. A good running game and possibly an improved D should give them a chance coupled with White's historical worse production away from home.
Click to expand...

Bunch of garbage. Total disservice to the forum. Minter got knocked out in the 1st qrt, but he doesn't play defense.
 
Maineroad said:
Ahem....


Houston - Pirate mails some of these OOC game in sometimes

Temple - right, now Maryland is like really good or something. Whatever

Free Shoes - 4 and 5 Star athletes against kids we stole from powers like Marshall, Buffalo and Yale. Our kids also have to go to school.

Bowling Green State - LaTech has looked like doo doo.

Kentucky - barely beating Miami means you're about as good as UNC, maybe.

I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).
Click to expand...
and Houston was in that game last night.
FSU... KentLucky in the night cap
 
Maineroad said:
Ahem....


Houston - Pirate mails some of these OOC game in sometimes

Temple - right, now Maryland is like really good or something. Whatever

Free Shoes - 4 and 5 Star athletes against kids we stole from powers like Marshall, Buffalo and Yale. Our kids also have to go to school.

Bowling Green State - LaTech has looked like doo doo.

Kentucky - barely beating Miami means you're about as good as UNC, maybe.

I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).
Click to expand...
Well...
 
Maineroad said:
Ahem....


Houston - Pirate mails some of these OOC game in sometimes

Temple - right, now Maryland is like really good or something. Whatever

Free Shoes - 4 and 5 Star athletes against kids we stole from powers like Marshall, Buffalo and Yale. Our kids also have to go to school.

Bowling Green State - LaTech has looked like doo doo.

Kentucky - barely beating Miami means you're about as good as UNC, maybe.

I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).
Click to expand...
Good calls on the early card. Hope you didn't try the nightcap, b/c...

FB_IMG_1568538828140.jpg
 
s--k said:
0-8 ML bets...all favorites and no upsets makes s--k a dull boy

Kansas State 50 to win 100
Pitt 50 to win 307
ECU 50 to win 117
South Bama 50 to win 418
Southern Miss 50 to win 62
Click to expand...

Finally a positive ML day, barely and for the first time more covered ATS than didn't. Had my best overall day of the year on the unposted plays, made some good bets and some bad bets I wish I wouldn't have. Feel like it should've been better overall, but positive momentum for next week.

Man there were alot of upsets this week.
 
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