Week 4 ML Dogs

Coastal Carolina @ UMass: Coastal has some serious statistical advantages compared to UMass. They give up 300ypg less than UMass and gain 100ypg more than UMass. So when I entered these numbers into my queries I was totally expecting a dominate record for Coastal. That was far from the case. I put in some ranges and got 5-4 SU for the home team. I added last year's previous matchup loss for UMass and got 1-2 SU. Now that might not seem like much but consider the lone win was a 15.5 pt dog. UMass is 0-3 and prolly looking forward to their first win and they have some double revenge going on in this game vs. Coastal it makes me think the home team here is worthy of some consideration.

View attachment 43012

View attachment 43011
Kansas scored 48 on BC at BC They scored 7 against Coastal th e. Week before Umass transition year just my two cents
 
Total risked this weekend so far is about $102.......that's kind of a lot for me so I'm hoping to at least get it back and a bit more...but if I don't and I lose then, well shit.

BOLTA!!

satparlay.jpgsatparlay2.jpgsatparly3.jpgsatparlay4.jpgsatparlay5.jpgsatparlay6.jpg
 
LSU @ Vandy: I played Vandy 1st Qtr & 1st Half in those parlays. I know from past experience LSU sometimes has trouble playing up north at Ky so so maybe they can be a bit sluggish today. Vandy is also coming off a bye and I think they will be ready to give their best. I did a query of my normal comparisons but also added a bye week for the home team and came up with this. Looks like in one game the home team had a lead going into the half and in the big lined game, it was scoreless thru 2 qtrs of play. With a little luck maybe Vandy can hit a FG or 2 and take the lead....we'll see. The home team was 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU in these games.

vandy-lsu.jpg
 
Past is the past, but this is the story today: "Ragin’ Cajuns are the best rushing team in the country that doesn’t run the triple option .... Either the Bobcats shrug off last week’s shoddy tackling at Marshall and become sure-handed against Louisiana, or the problems persist and OU will be staring at 1-3 entering the bye week."

Ohio 0-7 L7 versus teams who rush for 225+ yards per game.. but again, look at the spread. They were catching an average of 11 points in those games. Coach Napier is 9-8 in 17 games. ULL scored 31+ in the 9 wins and 28 or less in the 8 losses. I think they get there today.
MAC is typically a stronger conference than the Sun Belt.
The Sun Belt's football star is getting brighter each year. The Sun Belt sported the best winning percentage (11-5, .688) in bowl games of any league last season and also the best non-conference record (24-20) of the Group of Five.

“I think that trend has continued even this year,” Napier said. “This thing is getting better, and I think it’s in prime position with the stability that we have, five teams in each division and the championship game. It’s in position with the recruiting footprint. There are lots of reasons for the Sun Belt to be excited about the momentum that we have as the league.”
 
Read a story how Napier says they have struggled in the past vs mobile and running QBs, but he thinks they have improved alot and should be better at this point facing Rourke.
 
Wow...looks like LSU will be able to name the score. Game over!

:smashcpu:

They tied sch record with 28 1st qrt pts. I have Vandy +, likely game over for that too.

Vols are a tunover machine again. INT in EZ that should've been caught for TD and threw another INT now in UF territory.
 
O-fer today.....got crushed actually. How bad is Bowling Green? They played a team today backed by a 3-27 SU trend. Not only do they lose, they get crushed by 4 TDs over the spread as they allow a 62 spot. WMU competed but could not overcome turnovers early.....well shit.

:rolleyes:
 
If this thread has taught me anything it is I might as well take the dog money lines cause my dogs fall apart and not only lose game but blow covers whenever it happens! Can’t believe ville didn’t cover., that red zone pick when they had lead buried me.
 
Back
Top