Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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rOff top of head not a great card but I said that yesterday and ended up with bunch of plays and did pretty well! Lol.

Should be strikeouts galore in cincy!!

Have to look closer but I feel like break came at the right time for strider, he not used to throwing these innings and kinda slowed down his last few starts. The 9-10 off might have did him some good. Phillies come out of break and sleepwalk against cubs but then beat Braves game 1, go fucking figure! Lol.

I love watching McClanahan pitch but getting almost 2-1 on balty who we all agreed matches up favorably w tampa is crazy. After cashing the small plus money in gm1 feel like might be worth at least a half a bet here!!! Have to look closer at Watkins vs rays bats and to see if balty can do anything against McClanahan or at least get him out game early??

So cards lose 2 of 3 to garbage reds thanks to our crappy pitching and now goldy and arenado won’t be making trip to Toronto not being vaxed. Our lineup gonna have a gaping freaking hole in middle of it! Lol, berrios outta pitch well here and as I’ve said bunch of times I don’t particularly trust Pallante. Jays offense rolling out of break, I think you can safely lay -1.5 w jays here. Maybe a -1.5/over parlay?

I’d like to get a 4.5 k number for walker vs yanks.

No freaking clue who this kid starting for brewers is?

Last time Rodon pitched at zona was his 1st and as we guessed he kinda struggled. Imo that a place where if you struggle there once you likely to struggle their in a great deal your starts as grip can be a issue. That price kinda says it all as I suppose this be start snakes send out that gas can gilbert I thought was gonna pitch gm 1!! Ff over lean.

Montas has only thrown 4 innings this month, I dunno what the deal? I assume they more worried bout trading him than getting him hurt so no clue if this be a showcase game or they limit him again? I was actually right about Oakland getting to Oderizzi seeing him a 3rd time, they havnt seen Javier this month, he should dominate them!! Over 6.5 k’s seems like a no brainer. (Assuming that the number).

Really sucks the nats moved Josiah gray start as they hitting Gonsilin tonight (you may recall I’m on a Gonsilin fade kick!), woulda played nats had Gray pitched. Still lean them here but won’t get as good a price, might be a Gray k prop if we get short number cause of dodgers respect!!

Kirby strikeout prop and seattle once again as they continue wiping the bad taste of Stros sweep out their mouths by beating up on rangers!!


That bout all I got 1st glance!!
 
2daBank said:
rOff top of head not a great card but I said that yesterday and ended up with bunch of plays and did pretty well! Lol.

Should be strikeouts galore in cincy!!

Have to look closer but I feel like break came at the right time for strider, he not used to throwing these innings and kinda slowed down his last few starts. The 9-10 off might have did him some good. Phillies come out of break and sleepwalk against cubs but then beat Braves game 1, go fucking figure! Lol.

I love watching McClanahan pitch but getting almost 2-1 on balty who we all agreed matches up favorably w tampa is crazy. After cashing the small plus money in gm1 feel like might be worth at least a half a bet here!!! Have to look closer at Watkins vs rays bats and to see if balty can do anything against McClanahan or at least get him out game early??

So cards lose 2 of 3 to garbage reds thanks to our crappy pitching and now goldy and arenado won’t be making trip to Toronto not being vaxed. Our lineup gonna have a gaping freaking hole in middle of it! Lol, berrios outta pitch well here and as I’ve said bunch of times I don’t particularly trust Pallante. Jays offense rolling out of break, I think you can safely lay -1.5 w jays here. Maybe a -1.5/over parlay?

I’d like to get a 4.5 k number for walker vs yanks.

No freaking clue who this kid starting for brewers is?

Last time Rodon pitched at zona was his 1st and as we guessed he kinda struggled. Imo that a place where if you struggle there once you likely to struggle their in a great deal your starts as grip can be a issue. That price kinda says it all as I suppose this be start snakes send out that gas can gilbert I thought was gonna pitch gm 1!! Ff over lean.

Montas has only thrown 4 innings this month, I dunno what the deal? I assume they more worried bout trading him than getting him hurt so no clue if this be a showcase game or they limit him again? I was actually right about Oakland getting to Oderizzi seeing him a 3rd time, they havnt seen Javier this month, he should dominate them!! Over 6.5 k’s seems like a no brainer. (Assuming that the number).

Really sucks the nats moved Josiah gray start as they hitting Gonsilin tonight (you may recall I’m on a Gonsilin fade kick!), woulda played nats had Gray pitched. Still lean them here but won’t get as good a price, might be a Gray k prop if we get short number cause of dodgers respect!!

Kirby strikeout prop and seattle once again as they continue wiping the bad taste of Stros sweep out their mouths by beating up on rangers!!


That bout all I got 1st glance!!
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Think I lean Reds and Mets at first glance. Also, I see Garcia for Stros - not Javier.

Small for Brewers is one of their higher prospects with good stuff - made his MLB debut against the Cubs at Wrigley in May when the wind was blowing out in an 11.5 total game and just didn’t have any control.
 
Ryno14 said:
Think I lean Reds and Mets at first glance. Also, I see Garcia for Stros - not Javier.

Small for Brewers is one of their higher prospects with good stuff - made his MLB debut against the Cubs at Wrigley in May when the wind was blowing out in an 11.5 total game and just didn’t have any control.
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Lol. Damn. I see Garcia now also. No clue if app switched on me or just blind? Lol. Either way, think same thing applies! Oak didn’t see Garcia In either their b2b series this month, should dominate them.


That certainly makes for a rough mlb debut, wouldn’t read much into debut during normal conditions. Don’t see line for that game, you would think milw get some runs off Bundy.
 
2daBank said:
Lol. Damn. I see Garcia now also. No clue if app switched on me or just blind? Lol. Either way, think same thing applies! Oak didn’t see Garcia In either their b2b series this month, should dominate them.


That certainly makes for a rough mlb debut, wouldn’t read much into debut during normal conditions. Don’t see line for that game, you would think milw get some runs off Bundy.
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Think I saw Small -115
 
FYI

The St. Louis Cardinals will be without their two best players for a two-game set against the host Toronto Blue Jays that opens Tuesday night.

Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, both of whom were selected to play the All-Star Game on July 19, have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 and cannot enter Canada. They will miss the short series, along with catcher Austin Romine.
 
inZane said:
FYI

The St. Louis Cardinals will be without their two best players for a two-game set against the host Toronto Blue Jays that opens Tuesday night.

Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, both of whom were selected to play the All-Star Game on July 19, have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 and cannot enter Canada. They will miss the short series, along with catcher Austin Romine.
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I put it in my ramblings! Lol.. I don’t like cards pitcher either. Jays -1.5 and maybe over
 
It rained 8 inches here last night. That a lot! I slept right thru it, lol. Apparently lot of flooded roads, hope I can get to casino!!
 
Vap'sBack said:
@2daBank that's a lot of rain in a short period! P.S. Good call on Texas pitcher not being worth the -200 and let down game for Texas. :shake:
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Astros you mean? But yea thanks, sometimes just gotta play a hunch,, I think Stros pitcher tonight will make mince meat out of A’s! They havnt seen him twice this month already like they had oderizzi!!
 
Marsski said:
K bet for 1 unit: Berrios Over 4.5/Greene Over 5.5 parlay +161
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I played greene and Lopez in that cincy game. Was kinda surprised they were both 5.5. I don’t like playing pitcher k’s against cards plus berrios a pain in my ass but who knows what their lineup look like tonight?
 
I didn’t really cap the rangers/seattle game tonight so I could certainly be missing something but I jumped all over Kirby ov 5.5 k’s +130! Normally I woulda went back home and capped the late games before making any plays but if everything lined up w Kirby there no way that number would still be there when I went back! On the flip side he might go down to 4.5 the way Lodolo dropped down 1 yesterday but I thought that might happen, wasn’t as sure w Kirby so I just took a leap of faith and grabbed what I thought was a pretty weak number!
 
We will see what Kirby mental makeup all about tonight, seattle has had him on a sissy program trying to limit his innings so they still be able to use him come Sept and hopefully playoff time. So been sending him down and having him make couple inning appearances in minors, if that me I would be annoyed and would come up and pitch a gem to show them I should be in the show helping them win, not toiling around on crappy busses in minors wasting away!! Lol. And let’s be real, rangers lineup a good one to show out against!!!
 
2daBank said:
We will see what Kirby mental makeup all about tonight, seattle has had him on a sissy program trying to limit his innings so they still be able to use him come Sept and hopefully playoff time. So been sending him down and having him make couple inning appearances in minors, if that me I would be annoyed and would come up and pitch a gem to show them I should be in the show helping them win, not toiling around on crappy busses in minors wasting away!! Lol. And let’s be real, rangers lineup a good one to show out against!!!
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Not sure the rule but they've gotta be close to running out of options.
 
I was close to pulling trigger on walker over 4.5 k’s against yanks but he can be a bit a head case so thought it be better to come back home and make sure the stars align well for him before laying money down!
 
KJ said:
Not sure the rule but they've gotta be close to running out of options.
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Yea I dunno either, never understood all that crap, lol. I know he has already pitched more innings this year than anytime in his career at any level I believe. I still think they baby these kids too much but I guess it understandable in this instance. Most teams seem incredibly hesitant to go more than double innings from year to year.
 
2daBank said:
I played greene and Lopez in that cincy game. Was kinda surprised they were both 5.5. I don’t like playing pitcher k’s against cards plus berrios a pain in my ass but who knows what their lineup look like tonight?
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Yeah, playing the no vax angle here w Berrios...Goldy, Arenado and Romaine out as you know....my parlay has moved 40 cents so at least some CLV for me
 
Marsski said:
Yeah, playing the no vax angle here w Berrios...Goldy, Arenado and Romaine out as you know....my parlay has moved 40 cents so at least some CLV for me
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My only worry was cards could conceivably put in a few lower strikeout lefty hitters in their spots but even if that the case you would think Berrios have a much better chance to go deep into game not having to see those guys in middle the lineup!! 4.5 not a big ask at all if he pitches 6+ innings!! My dislike of cards starter Pallante is well documented so I went with jays FF -.5. Hopefully we both cash!!
 
Jays weren’t really all that impressive last time they faced a non vax ravaged team! They did end up taking 3 of 4 I believe but kc made the games incredibly close!

@Marsski If my memory serves me right didn’t you cash a berrios k prop when he got to face the royals minor league club also!!


I hadn’t thought bout till now but Jays really are getting a huge advantage getting to face these teams who’s guys not allowed to play/make the trip to Toronto!! That messed up!!
 
2daBank said:
Jays weren’t really all that impressive last time they faced a non vax ravaged team! They did end up taking 3 of 4 I believe but kc made the games incredibly close!

@Marsski If my memory serves me right didn’t you cash a berrios k prop when he got to face the royals minor league club also!!


I hadn’t thought bout till now but Jays really are getting a huge advantage getting to face these teams who’s guys not allowed to play/make the trip to Toronto!! That messed up!!
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Yes. Back to the well. He had 7 and didn't even have his best stuff cooking.
 
Marsski said:
Yes. Back to the well. He had 7 and didn't even have his best stuff cooking.
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I played a few vs kc but think I passed on berrios and kicked myself. I always liked him but he been kinda a pain for me this year. Lol. Obviously kc was worse off and their offense can’t hold cards jock anyways but like the cards kc not a real high strikeout team and didn’t matter.

I’m kinda shocked they set his out total at 17.5 also! Juice up to -200 on the over but I think we talking 75% chance he goes at least 6 innings! Another good parlay partner!!

I think they came a strikeout and out short w his numbers for some reason? I make it 5.5 and 18.5. His career numbers on 6+ days rest been fantastic also!!
 
Gonna take a little shot here and think I can do it without a lot of risk.

Nats Ff +155.. c can these guys beat lad b2b games? Tough to believe but then I recall pirates sweeping them in LA! dodgers have had a insane month, I’m not a “due” kinda guy but they are kinda due to lose a few games! Lol. I don’t think white the kind of guy who should be laying freaking -220 (for game) against anyone, let alone a kid in Josiah gray I really like! I think this kid could turn out to be a legit ace, he not there yet but the stuff is filthy! He got to face his former team earlier in the year at home and got beat up. We see if he has the mental fortitude to come out to la and show them it was a mistake trading him!! No interest being involved when pens come in but I’ll take this price with the better pitcher to give me 5 good innings!!


Here where the minimal risk comes in. Coveting the nats Ff with

Josiah gray ov 5.5 k’s +115., I was really hoping the dodgers lineup get enough respect to give us a 4.5 here but I’ll take the plus money on 5.5. Gray has fanned 6+ in 6 of his last 7 starts! Even when dodgers roughed him up he still fanned 5 in his 3 innings of work, I think he will fare much better this start and shouldn’t have any problem getting to 6k’s.
 
Really don’t make any sense I claim that taking risk away. Maybe my way of convincing myself!! Lmao.
 
Josiah gray up to +120 for over. I think this similar to Lodolo yesterday. Lodolo case was average joe’s didn’t know his name and saw 6.5 and wernt gonna bet a number that typically reserved for the bigger name pitchers. Gray prob a little more known but facing a red hot dodger team the masses not gonna play his k’s over vs lad!! I don’t think he gonna get bet down another number like Lodolo did tho. Ya can wait and see, can’t imagine you will lose value on the price, could get lucky and it goes down to 4.5, that would be pound town!!
 
2daBank said:
Gonna take a little shot here and think I can do it without a lot of risk.

Nats Ff +155.. c can these guys beat lad b2b games? Tough to believe but then I recall pirates sweeping them in LA! dodgers have had a insane month, I’m not a “due” kinda guy but they are kinda due to lose a few games! Lol. I don’t think white the kind of guy who should be laying freaking -220 (for game) against anyone, let alone a kid in Josiah gray I really like! I think this kid could turn out to be a legit ace, he not there yet but the stuff is filthy! He got to face his former team earlier in the year at home and got beat up. We see if he has the mental fortitude to come out to la and show them it was a mistake trading him!! No interest being involved when pens come in but I’ll take this price with the better pitcher to give me 5 good innings!!


Here where the minimal risk comes in. Coveting the nats Ff with

Josiah gray ov 5.5 k’s +115., I was really hoping the dodgers lineup get enough respect to give us a 4.5 here but I’ll take the plus money on 5.5. Gray has fanned 6+ in 6 of his last 7 starts! Even when dodgers roughed him up he still fanned 5 in his 3 innings of work, I think he will fare much better this start and shouldn’t have any problem getting to 6k’s.
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I’ll be on Nats ML tonight for sure. If Mitch White can beat me laying -240, so be it.
 
Ryno14 said:
I’ll be on Nats ML tonight for sure. If Mitch White can beat me laying -240, so be it.
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I'll be on first five. Assume if they aren't winning after five they aren't winning full game. Starting pitching mismatch and as Bank said above, Gray has revenge against LAD.
 
Ryno14 said:
I’ll be on Nats ML tonight for sure. If Mitch White can beat me laying -240, so be it.
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And it not like he up against some scrub either!! Gray can legit shut down any lineup!! Even tho getting 50 cents less I still preferred Ff cause think we actually have a edge before pens get involved.
 
KJ said:
I'll be on first five. Assume if they aren't winning after five they aren't winning full game. Starting pitching mismatch and as Bank said above, Gray has revenge against LAD.
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Bummed me out to see he faced them once already earlier this year but maybe that let him work out the over amped up gitters?? I def think worth getting less plus for the 1st 5.
 
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Sure get the feeling every now and then dodgers go and stick it to the chasers!! They do it against the crappiest teams too!!! So it really stings losing a chase at those odds!!! 1st pirates did it in la, now it nats turn maybe? Shit could wipe out a whole month of guys profiting off them in 3 days!!
 
KJ said:
I'll be on first five. Assume if they aren't winning after five they aren't winning full game. Starting pitching mismatch and as Bank said above, Gray has revenge against LAD.
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Fair enough. I’m just not much of a F5 player. If I do, it’s usually a F5 under.
 
Ryno14 said:
Fair enough. I’m just not much of a F5 player. If I do, it’s usually a F5 under.
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That's just where you get to exploit the perceived starter mismatch. Need more than starters that rarely go more than 6 anymore to play a full game. So much happens the last 3-4 innings of games that has nothing to do with starting pitchers.
 
Ryno14 said:
Fair enough. I’m just not much of a F5 player. If I do, it’s usually a F5 under.
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I’ve evolved the last several years. It started with playing Ff unders, then I started playing some favs laying the half run (as ya might know I’m fairly allergic to laying juice on MLB sides! Lol) to get rid of most the juice and started making favs more playable to me!!, then the pen rules changed, the extra inning rule changed, and all a sudden well over 50%of all my plays are now 1st 5!! Evolution of the degenerate gambler!! Lol…. There still times where I feel full game better cause a pen edge or best pen guys for one team unavailable, etc, etc. In this case imo our edge is all bout gray vs white! So of course dodgers be up 2-1 after 5 and nats will win! Lmao
 
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Pushed on the Braves first five last night on that fluke double and still tilted about it. Back to the Braves first five tonight again with Strider. 2, did you look at his strikeout prop? Is it crazy?
 
askias said:
Pushed on the Braves first five last night on that fluke double and still tilted about it. Back to the Braves first five tonight again with Strider. 2, did you look at his strikeout prop? Is it crazy?
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Pretty sure him and Nola were both 7.5 without a ton of juice. I leaned Nola more than strider, I kinda think the little rest might have been good for strider as he been throwing more innings/pitches last month or 2 than he used to and I think he was showing small signs of wearing down. So asb might have came at the perfect time but rather see it before laying that big a number!! I recall he came in relief after Morton against Philly once back in like May, he fanned 5 of the 8 batters he saw!! Obviously if he on his game he won’t have any problem hitting 8+. If you made me pick one tho I would lean Nola with all the swing and miss on Braves, and I think his juice was a tad lower. I passed altogether on that game tho. Just had other plays I thought were stronger, should be a great watch tho.
 
Greene -105. 2U bet for me. Fish so beat up in both lineup and pen…Reds been hot, Greene improving, think Fish morale destroyed too with injuries and now full sell off minus Sandy…Pablo also not been the greatest lately.

Have Berrios pending from that parlay earlier. Will likely tail @BenchCoach on his Stros U play and will be taking Gray +215. Off to the Biscuits/Shuckers game…have a friendly wager with my pops on the next dinner. GL everyone
 
askias said:
I’m in on Berrios.
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As in betting jays or berrios props?? Im a little scared cards rise up without their stars, and I’m on jays Ff! Mostly cause I don’t like Pallante very much, think he struggles w jays lineup. I kinda like the over 9!

IF freaking O’Neal would remember how to mash having him 3rd obviously a drop off from goldy but he also far from a embarrassing 3 hole hitter at his best!! Pujols hitting 4th is the ugly part!! That just cards catering to glory years bs tho!! Interesting how we went from right handed heavy lineup for years to now being able to throw so many lefties and switch hitters at berrios!! This team has a ton of depth!! I think they have a solid offensive game for real. Just hope jays smash Pallante! I don’t feel great bout the jays Ff bet I made. Lol
 
I seriously think jays -217 is a huge overreaction! Goldy been smoking hot so I get it, cards lineup still better than the tigers, a’s, and other bums of the world! And I think they kind of team who will want to play well in the big dogs absences!!
 
I have a hunch the cards/jays game high scoring. I’m the worst at overs tho so probably be 2-1!! Lol
 
I like jays lineup. Is that a new thing or they switch it after break?? Imo it looks much better like that!! Pallante is gonna struggle w that I think!!
 
Cards lineup not bad either considering. I would get pujols out of 4 hole, Gorman should be there, pujols should be on bench or buried down in 8-9 spots if he has to play! Lol. That lineup could be very pesky for Berrios
 
I like walker to pitch a good game vs yanks but I just don’t know if that gonna equate to k’s? It really hard to say with him, some his best games against good lineups this year he went deep and didn’t give up much but didn’t strike a lot of guys out. I lean to over 4.5 k’s but think it gonna come based off volume of innings he able to pitch. 17.5 a really strong out total for him against yanks so I think books agree! I was really hoping for a 15.5 or 16.5 total outs. I do think he goes 6 innings but if his strikeouts are up (yanks do fan a lot) his pitch count could get him pulled somewhere in the 6th before finishing the inning. Tough one overall,, if he cashes his k’s it gonna make his total outs tricky, if he getting fast outs w less k’s he should go 6+ innings and cash out total. Long way of saying I did bunch of work on that game just to pass!!! Lol,,

If I coulda got Mets at plus money I would have played them. Where it sits now it a pass for me.
 
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