Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jun 14 Tue 2022

07:05 PM
955Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L+1½
-155		+132O 8½
-104
956Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Eflin -R-1½
+135		-143U 8½
-116
07:05 PM
965Tampa Bay RaysC. Kluber -R+1½
-112		+193O 8
-110
966New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
-108		-212U 8
-110
07:07 PM
967Baltimore OriolesJ. Lyles -R+1½
-105		+182O 9½
-115
968Toronto Blue JaysY. Kikuchi -L-1½
-115		-198U 9½
-105
07:10 PM
957Milwaukee BrewersA. Houser -R+1½
-163		+134O 8
-115
958New York MetsC. Bassitt -R-1½
+143		-145U 8
-105
07:10 PM
971Oakland AthleticsJ. Koenig -L+1½
-105		+188O 9½
-105
972Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R-1½
-115		-205U 9½
-115
08:05 PM
973Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R-1½
+125		-125O 9
-115
974Texas RangersD. Dunning -R+1½
-145		+115U 9
-105
08:40 PM
977Cleveland GuardiansS. Bieber -R-1½
+100		-154O 11
+100
978Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+1½
-120		+142U 11
-120
09:40 PM
963Cincinnati RedsT. Mahle -R+1½
-190		+107O 9
+100
964Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Davies -R-1½
+165		-117U 9
-120
09:45 PM
979Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L+1½
-104		+208O 8
-115
980San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R-1½
-116		-230U 8
-105
10:10 PM
981Los Angeles AngelsN. Syndergaard -R+1½
-117		+179O 9
-102
982Los Angeles DodgersT. Gonsolin -R-1½
-103		-195U 9
-118
 
So Liberatore has had 1 solid start and 2 crappy starts, for some reason of which I don’t know he hasn’t pitched for 10-12 days? Who knows wtf to expect out of him? This gonna be a straight up miserable day game at Busch 2marro, it still hot as Fuck rught now at 11 pm! during day with sun beating down on them it gonna be 120+ degrees on that field! I don’t think Mfers usually deserve the money they make but they be earning it 2marro!! Lol. What a awful fucking day for a day/night Double header! Gotta think they will play as few guys as possible in both games, 100 degrees today with a 114 heat index, you can barely breath and the muggy ass air smacks you in the face minute ya walk out the door, even now late at night the air is still redic nasty! Had to blast the AC in my ride the entire time just to make it tolerable!

Gm1 Pretty much same thoughts as yesterday, despite not having a favorable starting pitcher matchup you know cards gonna find a way to win at least 3 of these 4 games vs pirates, of course it would be wise to assume if pirates are gonna take a game this series it will most likely come on one these double header games 2marro, could be a decent chase on the dog play? If you have any faith in pirates that is. I don’t really but I also don’t think cards will pull off the 4 game sweep w the starting pitchers they having to use, Mikolas in gm 2 the only legit normal starter going the entire series. That actually kills the chase pirates in the double dip idea, no doubt Mikolas will throw a quality start in gm2. Could play pirates in gm1 then if they do happen to lose both 2marro go back at them on wed, IF cards should happen to be 3-0 in series to that point they def be a good fade there!!

Anyways, if you can make any sense out of all that and find a play more power to ya!! Lol
 
I dunno if Josiah Gray will take bump 2marro or not? Still kinda confused why he was scratched from gm1? I understand there was a delay but nobody pitched before it happened. Even if he does start that puts him in one those tough situations to cap, pitchers such creatures of habit, when their routine gets thrown off ya best off just leaving them alone till next time around when they back on track. Not saying he won’t be good, it happens, they also get blown up more often, it just a crapshoot and with a youngster even tougher to know how he handles it. Another stay away.
 
It sickens me how awesome the Yankees been, I can’t wait for them to go on a slide cause while I don’t root for anyone to lose it does annoy me when ppl clean up laying stupid overpriced numbers on teams like them! Lol. My old lady seriously just said “why don’t you bet them then they will lose for sure”, she knows my luck! Lmfao.

I get they off to one the best starts for any team the last 20 years but laying more than 2 to 1 against the Rays is insane! Tampa is one of only 2 teams to take 2 games off them in a series since start of may! That crazy! These Mfers have only lost 2 series all year! the stinking white Sox and O’s are only teams that have taken a series off them! Goes to show how goofy baseball is, O’s terrible and chisox been playing like garbage but they the teams who have taken series off yanks! These pricks have only lost 1 game all of June. The fucjing list of greatness goes on and on!

All that said -205 vs rays is crazy imo. Cole does not have a good record in his career vs rays, he been plenty good vs them, im sure his losses are mostly the 3-2 variety. On the other side Kluber has a nice record vs yanks. Unfortunately Kluber on 5 days rest which he significantly worse than 4 throughout career and way worse this season. He does sport a lifetime 2.54 era and opponent ops of .613 in the Bronx. Under on 8 or lower in this park scares me but a rays +1.5/under 8 parlay def has some appeal.
 
Have a feeling Phillies are gonna tee off on the always inconsistent Trevor Rogers. Eflin has a shit history vs fish but he has been microscopic at home this year! Dude sporting a 1.16 era on a ops allowed of .461 in 5 starts! I don’t understand how this line is similar to yesterdays open? Wanna bet this one goes the opposite direction?!!? (As always I’m not great at figuring out line moves, lol). This has Phillies and over screaming at me! Need to check ump tho. Maybe it a chance to try going the other way w a rl/total parlay and trying -1.5/over!!
 
Jays trotting out one the tougher starters for me to cap 2marro. Everything in ya will look at this japs form and think O’s should get to him and the Mfer will come out and have a great start! Or more likely he gets bombed again then next time faces a team like Yankees and pitches great! Lol. If you can figure this guy out you are sharper than me!
 
Cease vs tigers is interesting, tigers can’t hit their way out a wet paper bag but they really havnt been striking out a lot of late. 10 hits off lynn tonight but who knows how sharp lynn was in his 1st start of year? Plus he throws all fastballs. I dunno, I’d guess they come with a k number higher than I’m willing to go here and havnt come close to thinking bout playing a under! Lol
 
Oh shit. Red Sox pitchers licking their chops to get another shot at A’s crappy lineups at home this time. Quick turn around to face them again but do we think A’s batters good enough to make adjustments? I don’t, Pivetta k prop and total outs will be in play.
 
KJ said:
Think I'll be up to discuss since I slept for 18 hours today, just need to get the grog out my head
Click to expand...

Right on. Just running thru 1st thoughts but im awake so I’ll prob stay up and run thru some numbers after I get initial thoughts out of way. Fire when you ready!
 
Just to get it out the way, fuck I love Susanna Hoffs

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gonna be scary to play pitcher props against cubs In wrigley rest of week, weather just broke, they gonna start getting some the heat and a stiff wind blowing out, they still fan a lot tho! Yu was able to dominate as we suspected but the weather gonna be even more favorable to hitters 2marro.
 
2daBank said:
gonna be scary to play pitcher props against cubs In wrigley rest of week, weather just broke, they gonna start getting some the heat and a stiff wind blowing out, they still fan a lot tho! Yu was able to dominate as we suspected but the weather gonna be even more favorable to hitters 2marro.
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Why not just chase overs? Don't need pitcher props all the time, there will be runs!
 
Man. I hate the b2b vs same team, mahle k prop was nice and easy last time vs snakes, can he do it again?
 
Wind in Boston this weekend, only know it because of looking at US Open weather and no clue how it effects the games. But 10+mph winds. Changes direction from Friday to Saturday
 
KJ said:
Why not just chase overs? Don't need pitcher props all the time, there will be runs!
Click to expand...

Not like I play pitcher props in every game: I’m sure I can find a few I’ll like more than the over tho, I don’t like mlb overs real often. They price weather into wrigley number as much as anywhere and I’m not sure the offenses will be better than that? . Depends on the pitchers, if they fly ball or ground ball or can simply strike out cubs lineup for most their outs? I can’t see chasing overs but maybe it works, just not for me. If we can get a heavy fly ball pitcher without a bunch of swing and miss I’d be all for it!
 
KJ said:
Wind in Boston this weekend, only know it because of looking at US Open weather and no clue how it effects the games. But 10+mph winds. Changes direction from Friday to Saturday
Click to expand...

I see 7 mph in 2marro but that not the most reliable site for weather, lol. Doesn’t look like the heat will have reached them by 2marfo, probably by end of weekend tho, if the heat is gonna get to east coast? I’d assume it would.
 
2daBank said:
Not like I play pitcher props in every game: I’m sure I can find a few I’ll like more than the over tho, I don’t like mlb overs real often. They price weather into wrigley number as much as anywhere and I’m not sure the offenses will be better than that? . Depends on the pitchers, if they fly ball or ground ball or can simply strike out cubs lineup for most their outs? I can’t see chasing overs but maybe it works, just not for me. If we can get a heavy fly ball pitcher without a bunch of swing and miss I’d be all for it!
Click to expand...
I think there will be 15+ runs a couple times this week

And if you aren't down with that betting logic, beware that if they start scoring it likely has an effect on their confidence hitting going forward. Quoting the Natural..."Hitting is a disease, like Cephalus"
 
KJ said:
I think there will be 15+ runs a couple times this week

And if you aren't down with that betting logic, beware that if they start scoring it likely has an effect on their confidence hitting going forward. Quoting the Natural..."Hitting is a disease, like Cephalus"
Click to expand...

You saying they gonna score 15+ in wrigley few times next week? Braves come in after pads, if heat and wind cooperate I could def see that being a super high scoring series/. I have to look closer at Manaea, just not ready to do it blindly. I’m sure there be some spots tho.
 
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2daBank said:
You saying they gonna score 15+ in wrigley few times next week? Braves come in after pads, if heat and wind cooperate I could def see that being a super high scoring series/. I have to look closer at Manaea, just not ready to do it blindly. I’m sure there be some spots tho.
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Yeah I think a blind over chase is simple but more importantly if it works, I don't see them as an under team the next couple weeks.
 
KJ said:
Yeah I think a blind over chase is simple but more importantly if it works, I don't see them as an under team the next couple weeks.
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt I’ll be playing any unders there unless they come w those super high 12+ totals and I think there a just fantastic pitcher matchup but pretty unlikely. That Braves series could easily see 40+ runs if the weather is what it supposed to be and wind stays blowing out.
 
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I just think I’d wait for Braves (again pitcher matchups depending), not that I’m really opposed to a over chase, you just caught me off guard with it and talking bout “I don’t have to play pitcher props”! Lol. I don’t have to play them in wrigley that for sure, I prob won’t, there be some I like somewhere tho! lol. When Braves get there I’ll def be open to it. I dunno. Manaea isn’t really a ground ball guy, he gets lot of swing and miss but shockingly scrubbies fanning a lot less in June and don’t whiff as much vs lhp than right. I gotta look closer at Hendricks but ya know he knows how to pitch In this park with windy conditions and think he does get bunch of ground balls. I could prob talk myself into playing cubs 2marro if I can find any promising signs for Hendricks! Lol
 
This will be Biebs 1st time pitching at coors. I really don’t like messing with pitchers who have never pitched there, feel like it impossible to know until we see it once.
 
Trying to stay interested

Ran into a situation because whatever happened I smell like basil and that needed immediate attention
 
2daBank said:
This will be Biebs 1st time pitching at coors. I really don’t like messing with pitchers who have never pitched there, feel like it impossible to know until we see it once.
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That's a very good stay away, almost want to fade him

Nothing will snap like he's used to
 
KJ said:
That's a very good stay away, almost want to fade him

Nothing will snap like he's used to
Click to expand...

Yea. I’d listen to the case against him. Def wouldn’t be looking to play him in any fashion. Tribe offense should do well there. Could be a over.
 
2daBank said:
Think so. Especially if none their pitchers have pitched in coors.
Click to expand...
Bases tend to get me bothered but when I'm doing well it's 4 quadrants. Team and total. Funnels to one of those usually so that's the starting point. Don't care the starters, every game will filter to the Cleveland/over quad. Then we begin the game.
 
Historically I’ve done better playing coors overs than I have wrigley. What I really miss the old ranger park before they messed w it and they had that jet steam effect when the wind was blowing in from right and it was a decent kept secret! They would have 15-20 run games like crazy when that jet stream kicked in!
 
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2daBank said:
Historically I’ve done better playing coors overs than I have wrigley. What I really miss the old ranger park before they messed w it and they had that jet steam effect when the wind was blowing in from right and it was a decent kept secret! They would have 15-20 run games like crazy when that jet stream kicked in!
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Don't laugh but I used to send the CTG ump stats to a bud that's VP with the Snakes per request. They wanted that info!

Also I miss that spreadsheet
 
KJ said:
Bases tend to get me bothered but when I'm doing well it's 4 quadrants. Team and total. Funnels to one of those usually so that's the starting point. Don't care the starters, every game will filter to the Cleveland/over quad. Then we begin the game.
Click to expand...

I only understand some of that, lol. “4 quadrants”?

It all bout starting pitching and how it matches up against the lineup for me. Then I worry bout form of offense, pens, and few other things but I feel I can do ok just capping pitcher. Pin down what ya gonna get from starter game usually falls in place.
 
KJ said:
Don't laugh but I used to send the CTG ump stats to a bud that's VP with the Snakes per request. They wanted that info!

Also I miss that spreadsheet
Click to expand...

I used to be a freak bout umps but I’ve drifted away from them a great deal. I still look at but they far less important to me than I used to feel they were.
 
2daBank said:
I only understand some of that, lol. “4 quadrants”?

It all bout starting pitching and how it matches up against the lineup for me. Then I worry bout form of offense, pens, and few other things but I feel I can do ok just capping pitcher. Pin down what ya gonna get from starter game usually falls in place.
Click to expand...
4 quads are simple

Team A and Team B each are half

Then over and under make it a fourth. That fourth is the only way I can play this game.
 
I do have a pretty decent general idea on whether I think ump has a big, small, or inconsistent zone on prob 65% of them. Lol
 
2daBank said:
I used to be a freak bout umps but I’ve drifted away from them a great deal. I still look at but they far less important to me than I used to feel they were.
Click to expand...
They're very important to players and managers, I can attest to those details.
 
KJ said:
They're very important to players and managers, I can attest to those details.
Click to expand...

Im sure. These days so many guys are big on film and studying what the pitcher throws im sure they want to know what kind of zone the ump has. Obviously that always been important to a pitcher., it not that I don’t care, just don’t think I need to focus on them too much, if anything not doing so has made the start of new series days better for me.
 
2daBank said:
Im sure. These days so many guys are big on film and studying what the pitcher throws im sure they want to know what kind of zone the ump has. Obviously that always been important to a pitcher.,
Click to expand...
Was shocked I was asked and had to scrub the thing of any identity type stuff which wasn't hard. Was when Gibby was manager, he wanted it and I don't blame him.
 
I used to fuckinb hate new series days trying to wait on umps and half the time never getting them or just few minutes before 1st pitch. Made me so mad and def hurt me those days!
 
KJ said:
Was shocked I was asked and had to scrub the thing of any identity type stuff which wasn't hard. Was when Gibby was manager, he wanted it and I don't blame him.
Click to expand...

Think I recall you bringing it up years ago.
 
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