| 08:15 PM | ||||
| 149 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +13 -115 | O 48 -105 | |
| 150 | Kansas City Chiefs | -13 -105 | U 48 -115 |
Last edited:
Steelers vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Local media already working on building up the courage to predict an upset. Right now they're at the "Steelers can hang around and maybe make the Chiefs nervous" mentality. By the end of the week it'll be 100% ATS win more than half calling for the outright upset.
The warts on the Steez are pretty glaring and hard to ignore. -55 point differential. 3-5 road record. 271 yards per game the last 4, Zero 400 yard games all year, Five times in the last 9 weeks allowing at least 198 yards rushing. Big Ben with his lowest QB rating since 2008, his lowest QBR outside the two game season in 2019, 4.5 YPA the last 4 weeks while throwing 38 times a game, and two weeks ago had statistically the worst game of his career. On D they've held Baltimore to 19 and 13, Cleveland to 14 and Tennessee to 13 the last 8 weeks, but have also allowed 36 to KC, 36 to Minny, 41 to Cincy and 41 to the Chargers. The defense has a strong pass rush and has been causing turnovers lately (11 in last 5) but is not overly opportunistic (team net on TO differential is +2). Going 8-2-1 in one score games is a stunning stat.
This is a decidedly mediocre team going on the road against a top 4 offense, which has led to big losses most of the year outside of week 1.
The Chiefs on the other hand have come a long way since their 3-4 start. In that time they had a TO differential of -10. Since then they've won 9 of 10 with a turnover differential of +14. Mahomes has settled into taking more of what's given rather than forcing plays, and the run game has been a good complement (127 yards/game). Mahomes has had his worst season overall statistically but last 8 have been on par with the last two season (105.8 rating, 17/3 ratio, 288 yards/gm, 7.8 YPA).
It would take a lot, a special teams miracle, a defensive score, a busted coverage 70 yard TD, likely all three, to make this game competitive. Maybe that luck box still has some more magic.
The warts on the Steez are pretty glaring and hard to ignore. -55 point differential. 3-5 road record. 271 yards per game the last 4, Zero 400 yard games all year, Five times in the last 9 weeks allowing at least 198 yards rushing. Big Ben with his lowest QB rating since 2008, his lowest QBR outside the two game season in 2019, 4.5 YPA the last 4 weeks while throwing 38 times a game, and two weeks ago had statistically the worst game of his career. On D they've held Baltimore to 19 and 13, Cleveland to 14 and Tennessee to 13 the last 8 weeks, but have also allowed 36 to KC, 36 to Minny, 41 to Cincy and 41 to the Chargers. The defense has a strong pass rush and has been causing turnovers lately (11 in last 5) but is not overly opportunistic (team net on TO differential is +2). Going 8-2-1 in one score games is a stunning stat.
This is a decidedly mediocre team going on the road against a top 4 offense, which has led to big losses most of the year outside of week 1.
The Chiefs on the other hand have come a long way since their 3-4 start. In that time they had a TO differential of -10. Since then they've won 9 of 10 with a turnover differential of +14. Mahomes has settled into taking more of what's given rather than forcing plays, and the run game has been a good complement (127 yards/game). Mahomes has had his worst season overall statistically but last 8 have been on par with the last two season (105.8 rating, 17/3 ratio, 288 yards/gm, 7.8 YPA).
It would take a lot, a special teams miracle, a defensive score, a busted coverage 70 yard TD, likely all three, to make this game competitive. Maybe that luck box still has some more magic.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Don’t see how this game goes any differently than the matchup a few weeks ago
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
I’ve actually seen a number of very strong historical trends which point towards Pitt being a strong play this weekend. This surprised me as I feel this team is NOT very good at all.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Ah the old self-deprecation, tempered expectations routine.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i cant do it, i dont really want to lay dd for game either tho.. think ill just stick with 1st half -7 and stick around casino in case kc not up at half ill take them again with better number.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
That's the verbal equivalent of limping to the sideline, a Big Ben staple.
Local media proceeding as predicted here, it is now a spirited debate between the "no chance to win" group and the "I think they've got a shot" group.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i wanna hear what the hell the "think they got a shot" group is hanging their hat on? i dont see any reason to think they have a shot, to cover maybe.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
The one sports station is having a contest in the next hour where the caller who can best articulate why the Steelers have a good chance to win gets tickets to something. If I hear anything compelling I'll post it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
that a tough deal, most the time i can make a decent argument for either side but i just dont have one here. cant wait to hear the winner!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not like Pat and Kelce have been really sharp this season although they've looked better lately
Have to think the only way Steez can compete is move the chains and shorten the game, certainly can't predict turnovers but they've happened in bunches at times with this KC team and gotta assume Watt and company can get pressure on Pat
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
They won't go away from the run down by 14, no way. I really think it's a low scoring game.
Most of these playoffs are full of teams I want to fade anyway and both of these fit the mold. Probably only play on teams for me are Tenny, Cinci, and maybe GB but I doubt that one too. Seems like cases can be made to fade all the others.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Arguments
- Big Ben still has something left in the tank
- TJ Watt to be "other worldly"
- They drop the Canada offense and go no huddle all game (even the optimistic host said not happening)
- Win the turnover differential this time
- Haden is healthy (gave up 8 for 8 targets in the last game)
- They're riding a wave of emotion
- A Chiefs Covid outbreak on Saturday
- Big Ben still has something left in the tank
- TJ Watt to be "other worldly"
- They drop the Canada offense and go no huddle all game (even the optimistic host said not happening)
- Win the turnover differential this time
- Haden is healthy (gave up 8 for 8 targets in the last game)
- They're riding a wave of emotion
- A Chiefs Covid outbreak on Saturday
2daBank
Voice of Reason
last one seems most likely path to me, lol.. ben has nothing left! we saw that when he broke the record for fewest yards on most attempts against browns!! (i dunno if it was a record but it should be!!)..
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Pretty sure the number for outright winners in the NFL in general over the years is 87-88% against the spread. Pick a winner, you get your spread more times than not.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
I might stab at pitt pts and sprinkle ml. Pitt D and pass rush vs kc o line is huge edge pitt imo. Get Najee rollin to keep it out of Bens hands and keep Mahomes on sideline
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If kc defense continues transforming back into a pumpkin like they have the last few weeks ., after a ton of thought I think that the best argument for pitt, all a sudden kc d has looked awful again, vs bungals it somewhat excusable and didn’t worry me much, letting that clown drew lock run all over on them and Gordon gash them all game even tho donks had no passing game to respect is worrisome!!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Hate that I didn’t get to kc 1st half in time and 7s got ate up fast, I dunno if I can lay 7.5 or not, decided to wait now since I don’t really care if it goes to 8. Maybe it too obvious this time? Certainly was easy last time and was obvious then too. The discrepancies in 1st qrtr redic, think it best vs worst. Then again same thing w donks who another terrible offense and kc defense did the turn back into a pumpkin thing.
in2win
Well-Known Member
I'm a Pittsburgh fan and their offense has looked horrendous
12.5 is a lot of points in the playoffs but its high for a reason, Ill probably tease Pittsburgh up with Philly only because I think the defense can make some plays and keep it within range.
While KC has been hot and I believe they found their groove there were quite a few games this season Wk 5-WK-9 they looked human.
This could very easily be 42-10 as well lol
12.5 is a lot of points in the playoffs but its high for a reason, Ill probably tease Pittsburgh up with Philly only because I think the defense can make some plays and keep it within range.
While KC has been hot and I believe they found their groove there were quite a few games this season Wk 5-WK-9 they looked human.
This could very easily be 42-10 as well lol
in2win
Well-Known Member
Its just that this offense has shown no life whatsoever. JUJU back helps in the slot bc there were alot of important drops there the past few weeks
in2win
Well-Known Member
Lol I was thinking the same thing his "supposed" last 2 games as well. He got the W both those games but it was pretty ugly
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
I don’t think so. Just think it’s late money
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
in Steelers live +550
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