Saturday NBA Discussion Thread

nbafan88

nbafan88

Pretty much a regular
View attachment 34507

Will be on the nuggets BIG. Jazz small. Just waiting til sometime tomorrow to see the refs and what the lines do. Perfect storm for the nuggets play IMO. The situation is just too good not to bet on them. Win or lose.
 
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Portland is playing it's 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip. From which follows...

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 10 seasons -
Portland ........... 11-19-1


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 10 seasons -

Portland ........... 12-18-1
Click to expand...

And as for this season thus far...

POR off a 4 game trip
 22nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost
23rd - Road Dog vs GDS - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
21st - Home Fav vs NOR - Lost
26th - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost
25th - Home Fav vs MIN -
Click to expand...

Only win as a Dog. Nice & clean 0-4er as a home Fav. No guarantee of a Minny ATS W by any means, just a capping angle to keep in mind. Even with the sharp improvements this team has obv. made this season compared to a host of recent ones, some things just don't seem to have changed.
 
Okay I don't want this line going down further.

Locked in Denver +2.5.

- 3 Straight Losses by Denver.

- Denver is an AMAZING Saturday Home team. 18-2 SU last 20. And I know it's much better than that. Just can't go past 20 games. Out scoring opponents on average 111-98.4 last 20....113.5-96 last 10.... 113.2-98.2 last 5

- Indy coming off a very very hard fought game last night in Sacramento (sea level) making a very tough trip to Denver (mile high) :) Indy was down for most of the game. Above DD for a big part of it. And the team inched it's way back and received a huge gift from the kings/refs with Paul George's 4 point play to tie the game and send it to OT.

The only thing that bothers me that was pointed out to me by Mikado last night is that Shaw was a player of Vogels and is trying to implement a lot of what Vogel does, so the advantage goes to Indy there. It's funny because Shaw is actually older than Vogel.

Regardless. the situation is too good to avoid
 
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Other leans

Nuggets 1h... Same reasons as FG play and Indy has been starting games out very lackadaisical. Denver does seem to suck at closing games out so this is probably the better play of the two... Still thinking

Atlanta/Milwaukee Over...

Teague is out and Carroll should be out as well but I think the hawks will be fine with Mack and Lou... The bucks should also be able to put up points as well since Atlantas defense blows

Waiting on the Jazz line
 
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Mike Woodson said that he wanted to take Melo out of the game last night but Shumpert wouldn't go in. Chandler and others were holding Shumpert back. Woodson said that it goes to show how much control he has over the team. Lmao.
 
Wow Indy getting bet hard. Close to 70% on the pacers right now.

Like the jazz opening number. Hope it stays at +1
 
Atlanta/Milwaukee Over...

Teague is out and Carroll should be out as well but I think the hawks will be fine with Mack and Lou... The bucks should also be able to put up points as well since Atlantas defense blows


Was looking at this as well - Milw. has such an inside size advantage for the game, but they are just so bad....
 
thoughts on Pacers tt under? every game they have lost has gone under the total of 102.5 and has gone over that total twice in b2b situations.
 
The 4-point play...

835255910.gif
 
nbafan88 said:
Okay I don't want this line going down further.

Locked in Denver +2.5.

- 3 Straight Losses by Denver.

- Denver is an AMAZING Saturday Home team. 18-2 SU last 20. And I know it's much better than that. Just can't go past 20 games. Out scoring opponents on average 111-98.4 last 20....113.5-96 last 10.... 113.2-98.2 last 5

- Indy coming off a very very hard fought game last night in Sacramento (sea level) making a very tough trip to Denver (mile high) :) Indy was down for most of the game. Above DD for a big part of it. And the team inched it's way back and received a huge gift from the kings/refs with Paul George's 4 point play to tie the game and send it to OT.

The only thing that bothers me that was pointed out to me by Mikado last night is that Shaw was a player of Vogels and is trying to implement a lot of what Vogel does, so the advantage goes to Indy there. It's funny because Shaw is actually older than Vogel.

Regardless. the situation is too good to avoid
Click to expand...

Never once were they dogged on this 18-2 run at home on Saturday (lowest spread was -5, highest was -17) or did they play a true 'elite' team (last decent team they played in this spot was the Spurs back in 2010). Normally playing the Nuggets was an auto-play when at home v the East but Shaw has fcuked that up.

Still looking into it.

(Line opened at 3.5, now it's at 2)
 
The last time the Nuggets were home dogs on Saturday was 11/1/2008. Since then they have killed it at home on Saturday (26-6 SU), but the average line in those games was -9.3.
 
The bank was open for Curry last night on that play. Dude is a sick shooter. Durant even gave him a shout out on twitter, best shooter of all time type shit.

@KDTrey5 Steph any day, best shooter to ever play
 
Days of week favor Toronto
Extended past history favors Toronto vs Clippers
Maybe the Clipper flip flop continues.
 
Blast from the past

Msudogs Ump report


Chicago at Charlotte: (Chi -1.5 and 181.5) Brian Forte is 16-18 o/u this season, but that includes a 0-8 o/u record in games with totals lower than 195 points. Chicago is on a 0-12 o/u run with Forte, mostly with pretty low totals, and Charlotte is 2-7-1 o/u with him. A little mixed on the ATS trends with this one, as there are a couple road-team refs and one home-dog ref.

L.A. Clippers at Toronto: (Tor -1 and 198.5) Road teams are 20-15 ATS with David Guthrie this season, including 7-2 ATS as dogs of fewer than 5 points. Road teams are 18-12 ATS with Marat Kogut this season, including 9-4 ATS as dogs of fewer than 5 points.

Oklahoma City at Philadelphia: (OKC -6 and 206.5) Mostly neutral trends with this crew.

Houston at Memphis: (Hou -2 and 194) Road faves of fewer than 5 points are 6-3 ATS this year with Pat Fraher. Houston is 8-2 ATS with Fraher, while Memphis is 2-7 ATS with him. Fraher is 21-9 o/u this season, including 4-2 o/u in games with totals between 185 and 195 points, but Houston is 3-5 o/u and Memphis is 2-8 o/u with him.

Atlanta at Milwaukee: (Atl -2.5 and 195) Road faves are 9-4 ATS with Josh Tiven this season, including 7-4 ATS as faves of fewer than 5 points. Milwaukee is 1-9 SU & ATS with Tiven, including 0-6 SU & ATS as a dog of fewer than 5 points.

Indiana at Denver: (Ind -2.5 and 201.5) Road favorites of fewer than 5 points are 6-1 ATS with Courtney Kirkland and 6-0 ATS with Haywoode Workman this season.

Washington at Utah: (Wash -1 and 194) All road-team refs on this crew. Road teams are 22-17 o/u with Derrick Collins, 18-12 ATS with Rodney Mott, and 18-11 ATS with Eric Dalen. Road teams favored by fewer than 5 points with are 10-2 ATS with Collins. Washington is 7-2 ATS with Collins, 7-3 ATS with Mott, and 6-3 ATS with Dalen.

Minnesota at Portland: (Port -7 and 219) Road dogs of between 5 and 10 points are 9-1 ATS this season with John Goble. Minnesota is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 with Goble. Portland is 5-4-1 ATS with Goble, but most of those games were as a dog, and Portland is 0-2 ATS in their last 2 with him, both as a fave. Some conflicting o/u trends with these refs.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Portland is playing it's 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip. From which follows...



And as for this season thus far...



Only win as a Dog. Nice & clean 0-4er as a home Fav. No guarantee of a Minny ATS W by any means, just a capping angle to keep in mind. Even with the sharp improvements this team has obv. made this season compared to a host of recent ones, some things just don't seem to have changed.
Click to expand...

Yes sir, had Minny circled as well.
 
nuggz + 2.5, over 1st half 50.5 and 99.5 - all big.

hold my nose large play of the day sixers over 50.5
tblazers over 1st half over 57
 
Good grief! Both the Clippers and the Raptors put up more points in the 1Q than the Rockets and Grizzlies did combined...

2588723972e12bd4c403ue4.jpg
 
The Nuggets are moving forward without forward Danilo Gallinari, who had season-ending surgery on his torn ACL earlier this week. It was the second procedure on the knee for Gallinari, who had hoped to return in the next few weeks.
The Pacers are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-backs, and they are coming off an overtime win against Sacramento on Friday night. Indiana coach Frank Vogel said will plan on sticking with his regular rotation but will keep an eye on his players. “We’ll go in with the mindset to be close to our normal rotation,” Vogel said. “If we look good we’ll stick to our normal rotation. If we look like we’re fatigued a little bit then we’ll go to the bench earlier.”
Denver will try to push the pace against Indiana to stay away from the Pacers’ halfcourt defense. Indiana is 21-0 when holding opponents to under 90 points and 19-0 when teams shoot less than 40 percent. Nuggets coach Brian Shaw said the best way counteract it is by playing fast. “We can’t let the Pacers make us play a halfcourt game or our chances of winning this game decrease,” Shaw said. “That’s how good their defense is. The two times these teams played last year the Pacers lost due to the fact that the Nuggets committed to playing fast-paced basketball for the whole game. That’s something I want to do tonight.”
Shaw has had plenty of reunion games this season, but he said tonight’s is the most special. He was on the Indiana staff the previous two seasons before being hired as Denver’s head coach. Vogel said he convinced Shaw to join his staff instead of working for ESPN. “I told him he was crazy to go work for ESPN and that he should come for us,” Vogel said. “I knew he wanted to be a head coach and I really felt that staying in the trenches was the best way to do that.”
– Michael Kelly
 
austinhous said:
The last time the Nuggets were home dogs on Saturday was 11/1/2008. Since then they have killed it at home on Saturday (26-6 SU), but the average line in those games was -9.3.
Click to expand...

Sorry I'm late but this frankly means nothing to me. The team plays exceptionally well on Saturdays at home. Different energy. Don't know why. Don't care. It is what it is.


the line is based on the two teams stats/rankings and public perception from the season so far.... And if the situation wasn't present tonight the line would be -4 to -5 for Indy. Are you trying to say that this pacers team is the best team the nuggets have played in their last twenty Saturday home games?
 
My book has alternate lines and I had no idea. Called at 8:55 and they were off the board. FFS

i didn't want to say this earlier but this was POY material. Probably won't get a better situational play all year.

higher chances Denver wins by 20+ than single digits. So id lean nuggets 2h for sure. Altitude is a bitch
 
nbafan88 said:
My book has alternate lines and I had no idea. Called at 8:55 and they were off the board. FFS

i didn't want to say this earlier but this was POY material. Probably won't get a better situational play all year.

higher chances Denver wins by 20+ than single digits. So id lean nuggets 2h for sure. Altitude is a bitch
Click to expand...
:thinking: please don't jinx
 
this team has a lot of potential... they just need to stop playing NOT TO LOSE basketball in the 4th quarter... no true superstars really makes it difficult to close out games
 
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