Patriots vs. Bills Discussion Thread

It’s gonna be cold here, really fucking cold.

As of now, the predicted high temp for Saturday is 10 degrees…the game is at 8:30 at night, it’s going to be single digits almost assuredly.

I’ll update when it’s closer with wind conditions, doesn’t look to be any precipitation to worry about.
 
jedi ninja said:
It’s gonna be cold here, really fucking cold.

As of now, the predicted high temp for Saturday is 10 degrees…the game is at 8:30 at night, it’s going to be single digits almost assuredly.

I’ll update when it’s closer with wind conditions, doesn’t look to be any precipitation to worry about.
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So we take the +4
 
Initial thoughts to start

Total looks like they are begging for an over play. I would have thought 45 gets even action, maybe even still shaded to the over. Last total @Buffalo was 40 with crazy wind & weather. Only 3.5 pts higher this time? I could see a Bills 24-17 type win where Mac gets picked in the EZ to end it. Just get the W Buffalo!

JMO some recency bias in this line. If the Pats whooped on Miami it would be 3. Not saying I would take the points though.

The Bills o-line is finally stable, which is the main reason Singletary has had success running the ball. I kept waiting for Feliciano to get back from injuries, but Bates has won the lg spot. At any rate I think Allen will have better protection this time around. Buffalo wr have a huge edge over the Pats corners, and Gabe Davis is healthy for this one. Yes they have a great #1 corner, but Diggs>>>>. The last two games the offense has seen patches where they look out of sync. Allen just has to protect the ball.

Defensively Buffalo still can't stop the run. Harris would have ran for 250+ first matchup if he was healthy but even Stevenson/Bolden can do damage. Mac just as many ints as tds on the road and Hyde/Poyer are keeping this secondary afloat. There isn't a better safety duo in the league. I don't think Mac can do enough through the air to beat the Bills this time around.



What I think happens

I expect the Bills to be able to move the ball no matter how cold it gets. They have come out slowww the last two games. Actually now looking they are 1-5 last 6 ats in the first half of home games. I don't think they can do that here. I expect them to come out firing and load up vs the run. If they get up 2 scores they will get conservative and run the clock out.

What I fear could happen

If the Bills come out slow and sloppy the Pats will lean even more on the run game. Buffalo can't have a tired run D going into the second half, so sustained drives are needed 1sth. My biggest fear is they just get gashed on the ground early and Allen throws a dumb pick/ someone is careless with the ball. If the Patriots get an early lead, you can believe they will try to grind the game to a halt. Bills lose the turnover battle and the cover/win will both be in jeopardy.
 
Patriots rb yds props are probably all in play.

I'm looking at for td- Harris, Stevenson, Diggs, Knox, Davis, Allen rush, mcKen/ longshot
 
Lexington 125 said:
Patriots rb yds props are probably all in play.

I'm looking at for td- Harris, Stevenson, Diggs, Knox, Davis, Allen rush, mcKen/ longshot
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Harris td all day. Prob yards too depending on number. Hopefully Allen rush number stays in 30s, like him over that for sure.
 
Pats have had a ton of success in this stadium, but things are shifting. I laid -4.
 
2daBank said:
Harris td all day. Prob yards too depending on number. Hopefully Allen rush number stays in 30s, like him over that for sure.
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Player props with BB as a coach are so tough. Player lights it up one week, rides the bench the next week. Watched every game this year & I still feel like there's someone in the backfield every week I've never heard of. But if I were to pick someone to find the end zone, it would be Harris.

Threw Saturdays dogs & overs in a 4 team 13 pt teaser, it's easier than thinking.
 
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Zeke said:
Player props with BB as a coach are so tough. Player lights it up one week, rides the bench the next week. Watched every game this year & I still feel like there's someone in the backfield every week I've never heard of. But if I were to pick someone to find the end zone, it would be Harris.

Threw Saturdays dogs & overs in a 4 team 13 pt teaser, it's easier than thinking.
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Harris has been incredibly consistent, when he healthy he been the guy all year. Jags blowout non withstanding but got his td before Stephenson took over, only other time I recall was short week Thursday night game, for most part he been about as reliable I recall a hoody rb being in some time. He was basically automatic to score and get 15ish carries every week he was healthy. He scored at least 1 td in 10 of last 11 weeks! The one exception was the Thursday night game which made sense to me. I don’t think he was ever priced above -120 to score either. Can’t beat that!!

Only small concern is I think he nursing a hammy, might keep me off his yards depending on the number but if pats gonna score any tds he a great bet to be the guy getting 1 imo.
 
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Yeah that hammy is an issue. He would have had 75+ more first matchup if he didn't pull it. He was cruising to the EZ when he pulled up.

Bills defense has been balling out and I really don't expect the Pats to get more than 2 tds. I'd be more inclined to play Stevenson @ +275, maybe even Bolden +310 as I expect them to be behind he may see more snaps.

I think Buffalo is going to turn Allen loose and hope he doesn't force too much. Diggs+140 td & Allen +160 look nice. Diggs yds at 66.5 which I think he gets over.
 
Zeke said:
Line is +120 right now on DK. I doubt that gets any better, I grabbed some. Something to route for while Pats get their asses kicked.
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Yea I saw they opened up the lines on td scorers last night. I’m gonna grab some today starting w him +120 as well.
 
ive read a few trend things that point pretty heavily to bills, teams off a conf champ loss are really strong opening at home the next season..
 
In the minority thus far, and rarely do I say this, but I’m on the Pats. Not heavy. A convincing Bills win wouldn’t be shocking. Just on the Patriots and the points in a close one.
 
Capaholic said:
In the minority thus far, and rarely do I say this, but I’m on the Pats. Not heavy. A convincing Bills win wouldn’t be shocking. Just on the Patriots and the points in a close one..
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i lean same way, just dunno if i will play or not.
 
Ryno14 said:
Agreed. I think I would’ve bit on the 4.5 for sure but meh at 4
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i grabbed some of Harris to score at +120 at casino this morning, once all the other numbers come out ill prob play few more props and call it a day. i see harris rush total is right around 60, i just need to make sure he fully healthy before biting on yards, havnt seen a allen rush number yet.
 
Love over here and looks like they're likely to miss weather

Think the winning team (Buffalo) might get damn near the number themselves
 
So hard to step in front of pats the way they’ve babied Jones in the cold and he’s even said he’s not yet comfortable playing in it. But it is New England lol
 
Big daddy naught said:
So hard to step in front of pats the way they’ve babied Jones in the cold and he’s even said he’s not yet comfortable playing in it. But it is New England lol
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Not sure bills can stop their run game tho.,I really doubt I play a side in this one, I lean pats but kinda hard to get over bills not punting once in the last meeting!! Even with that it was still really close, it took all those great plays by Allen on that last drive to prevent pats from getting ball back needing a score to win!! Part of me thinks hoody will def have a better plan but at same time it wasn’t like he got out schemed in that game, plenty of 3rd downs his guys were in position and Allen individual talent just beat them. This one so tough imo.
 
2daBank said:
Not sure bills can stop their run game tho.,I really doubt I play a side in this one, I lean pats but kinda hard to get over bills not punting once in the last meeting!! Even with that it was still really close, it took all those great plays by Allen on that last drive to prevent pats from getting ball back needing a score to win!! Part of me thinks hoody will def have a better plan but at same time it wasn’t like he got out schemed in that game, plenty of 3rd downs his guys were in position and Allen individual talent just beat them. This one so tough imo.
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Yeah live in game here
 
Big daddy naught said:
Yeah live in game here
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The one thing is I almost want to root for bills cause assuming cincy wins dont we need bills to win to send cincy to your titans? I have no interest betting a titans/pats game the way I’m looking forward to pounding titans vs a bungals team everyone will love if they look good this weekend!! (I’m assuming Steelers have no freaking chance to beat kc, lol).
 
jedi ninja said:
It’s gonna be cold here, really fucking cold.

As of now, the predicted high temp for Saturday is 10 degrees…the game is at 8:30 at night, it’s going to be single digits almost assuredly.

I’ll update when it’s closer with wind conditions, doesn’t look to be any precipitation to worry about.
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Still the same situation here with the weather, going to be single digit temps at kickoff but no precipitation. Thus far, winds are expected to be 5-10mph or so, but until Saturday, it seems unlikely any wind forecasts will be anywhere near accurate.
 
jedi ninja said:
Still the same situation here with the weather, going to be single digit temps at kickoff but no precipitation. Thus far, winds are expected to be 5-10mph or so, but until Saturday, it seems unlikely any wind forecasts will be anywhere near accurate.
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Can’t believe these Assholes put this at night. Gonna be freaking below 0 ain’t it?
 
jedi ninja said:
No. Maybe with the wind chill, but it shouldn't be below zero temperature wise.
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I’ve never understood the whole “feels like”, if it freaking feels like -5 it -5!! If it feels like 110 it 110,, shit has always seemed strange to me to say the temp is X but it feels like Y! All I know it cold as balls when the wind chill below 0! Glad we don’t get a ton of that here, I don’t like it! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I’ve never understood the whole “feels like”, if it freaking feels like -5 it -5!! If it feels like 110 it 110,, shit has always seemed strange to me to say the temp is X but it feels like Y! All I know it cold as balls when the wind chill below 0! Glad we don’t get a ton of that here, I don’t like it! Lol
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I guess you'd understand it if you lived through it annually? When it's 20 degrees out with no wind, it feels DRASTICALLY different than it does at 20 degrees with 15-25mph winds.

It's the same thing with humidity in the summer, and why people compare the dry air out west in AZ and the like to swampy air in LA or FL. There is a noticeable difference, even though the temperature may be the same. It's the difference between an oven and a sauna, is the analogy I like to use.
 
jedi ninja said:
I guess you'd understand it if you lived through it annually? When it's 20 degrees out with no wind, it feels DRASTICALLY different than it does at 20 degrees with 15-25mph winds.
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Well yea. That what I’m saying, it gets cold here just not nearly as much as ya”ll. I’m saying that “feels like” is really what it is!!! You dang right it way freaking different with wind!!! I dunno how you crazy fuxks sit thru a game in that shit!!
 
I’m not disputing it does feel way colder, I just don’t understand how the temp is supposedly X when it really feels way damn colder!! To me the temp with wind chill or w humidity when it hot is the real temp: all I care is how it feels, not what the supposed number is!!
 
Weather underground www.wunderground.com is on par with what Larry is saying. Temps about 5 with low winds. I hear what you're saying 2DB but the winds are what makes or breaks it. It was 0 here Tuesday but with wind gusts at 20 it was closer to -1 testicle. Lakes freezing don't care about wind chills, my field crews certainly do.

Should be an interesting game. As stated above, only way I play Pats is on a teaser.
 
Zeke said:
Weather underground www.wunderground.com is on par with what Larry is saying. Temps about 5 with low winds. I hear what you're saying 2DB but the winds are what makes or breaks it. It was 0 here Tuesday but with wind gusts at 20 it was closer to -1 testicle. Lakes freezing don't care about wind chills, my field crews certainly do.

Should be an interesting game. As stated above, only way I play Pats is on a teaser.
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I get it, it mostly just a joke i understand the difference. It always just cracks me up when weatherman tells me it 20 but feels like -5, or 90 but feels like 110, it always has me saying then wtf does the 1st number matter if it feels like the 2nd, that what counts to my freezing or sweating ass.
 
2daBank said:
I’ve never understood the whole “feels like”, if it freaking feels like -5 it -5!! If it feels like 110 it 110,, shit has always seemed strange to me to say the temp is X but it feels like Y! All I know it cold as balls when the wind chill below 0! Glad we don’t get a ton of that here, I don’t like it! Lol
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Wind can definitely make you feel colder by removing the heat envelope that surrounds your body. But the only scientifically accepted method for measuring wind chill is given in watts/square meter. Of course, reporting that today's wind chill is 3500w/sq.m would befuddle the general public so years ago someone came up with this feels-like number to simplify the concept. But there is no accepted way to calculate it and media outlets often skew their calculations to be more extreme because more extreme weather drives engagement.

So I operate under the assumption that the 'feels-like' temp can be completely disregarded.
 
Hulu said:
Wind can definitely make you feel colder by removing the heat envelope that surrounds your body. But the only scientifically accepted method for measuring wind chill is given in watts/square meter. Of course, reporting that today's wind chill is 3500w/sq.m would befuddle the general public so years ago someone came up with this feels-like number to simplify the concept. But there is no accepted way to calculate it and media outlets often skew their calculations to be more extreme because more extreme weather drives engagement.

So I operate under the assumption that the 'feels-like' temp can be completely disregarded.
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One of my favorite posts ever
 
Hulu said:
Wind can definitely make you feel colder by removing the heat envelope that surrounds your body. But the only scientifically accepted method for measuring wind chill is given in watts/square meter. Of course, reporting that today's wind chill is 3500w/sq.m would befuddle the general public so years ago someone came up with this feels-like number to simplify the concept. But there is no accepted way to calculate it and media outlets often skew their calculations to be more extreme because more extreme weather drives engagement.

So I operate under the assumption that the 'feels-like' temp can be completely disregarded.
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Awesome, thanks. I knew I wasn’t completely wrong whenever they talking and my bullshit meter is going crazy! Always feel like I’m being lied to whenever they give me 2 temps! lol.
 
Zeke said:
Now with all the newly found knowledge...what are you playing tomorrow? Haha
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I think it gonna be mostly props for Saturday. I’m just not real confident on sides in those games, think I like cincy. So far I have got down on mixon, waller, Harris to score, mixon over receiving yards, singletary over rush yards. Think that it so far but gonna play some more today.
 
Mac & co aren't coming to Buffalo and winning. The Patriots have a coaching edge here, but the Bills have so more talent and mismatches all over the place. I'm off all Patriots props at all atm- might be on a Mac throws a pick. I layed out earlier my fears on how they COULD find themselves in a closely played game. The more I think about it this might be a bigger beat down than the last game.

Mac more ints than tds otr. Last matchup threw 2 picks and threw a pick 6 lw to Howard. Can't see him throwing all over the Bills should they find themselves down, which I expect. OBV key for Bills is stopping the run to keep them in long 3rd downs. Bills defense is still a very good d even with the glaring run D problems and loss of Tre.

Allen is going to extend plays and the Bills have the matchup advantage with every wr on the roster. Last game Bills were without Gabe Davis & Beasley. McKenzie went for a career high 11-125-1 td. Pats are mismatched in the secondary and Allen will make the time to find those mismatches. Singletary has come on strong since the oline found it's groove- don't forget the Pats struggle vs the run as well.

Special teams might be a little worrisome-

1st punting (last game was scary bad) and holding on to the ball has been sketchy at times. McKenzie lost one vs the Colts & rookie Stevenson fumbled vs the Falcons. However I'm confident in the Bills kicking game though I hope they don't need it.


I'm laying on the Bills.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Mac & co aren't coming to Buffalo and winning. The Patriots have a coaching edge here, but the Bills have so more talent and mismatches all over the place. I'm off all Patriots props at all atm- might be on a Mac throws a pick. I layed out earlier my fears on how they COULD find themselves in a closely played game. The more I think about it this might be a bigger beat down than the last game.

Mac more ints than tds otr. Last matchup threw 2 picks and threw a pick 6 lw to Howard. Can't see him throwing all over the Bills should they find themselves down, which I expect. OBV key for Bills is stopping the run to keep them in long 3rd downs. Bills defense is still a very good d even with the glaring run D problems and loss of Tre.

Allen is going to extend plays and the Bills have the matchup advantage with every wr on the roster. Last game Bills were without Gabe Davis & Beasley. McKenzie went for a career high 11-125-1 td. Pats are mismatched in the secondary and Allen will make the time to find those mismatches. Singletary has come on strong since the oline found it's groove- don't forget the Pats struggle vs the run as well.

Special teams might be a little worrisome-

1st punting (last game was scary bad) and holding on to the ball has been sketchy at times. McKenzie lost one vs the Colts & rookie Stevenson fumbled vs the Falcons. However I'm confident in the Bills kicking game though I hope they don't need it.


I'm laying on the Bills.
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As well they played in ne It was far from a beat down, without all those incredible plays by Allen on that game winning drive pats get ball back needing a score to win. Which is freaking incredible considering bills didn’t punt once! I have a really hard time believing they do that again. Honestly it hard for me to trust Allen to play that way, he awesome when he does but he been far from a model of consistency, most weeks down the stretch he didn’t look like that dude to me. Bills d hasn’t really shown me anything that says they stopping a power run game but I don’t wanna back pats either cause I don’t trust Mac in the cold, I’m with ya there. I did get down on singletary rush yards cause think they came short there, like the way he been running. Still havnt seen a Allen rushing prop, I’m interested in that also. I think it gonna be closer than you do but I certainly think your side has plenty of merit, I agree they the better team, just don’t love the idea of laying points against the greatest coach ever.
 
As I’ve already mentioned I actually want bills to win cause I much rather get a chance to bet titans vs the cincy/vegas winner than have to deal w another tough to cap pats game next week, lol.
 
2daBank said:
As well they played in ne It was far from a beat down, without all those incredible plays by Allen on that game winning drive pats get ball back needing a score to win. Which is freaking incredible considering bills didn’t punt once! I have a really hard time believing they do that again. Honestly it hard for me to trust Allen to play that way, he awesome when he does but he been far from a model of consistency, most weeks down the stretch he didn’t look like that dude to me. Bills d hasn’t really shown me anything that says they stopping a power run game
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Actually watching that last game it was very clear the BIlls dominated. Just because NE got within striking distance in the fourth does not mean they weren't owned. They were outgained 428-288. The Bills didn't stop the run game that day either, and still won by 12. Don't have to completely shut down a run game to win & cover. Mac gonna turn it over. I don't think the game is played like the last game- as I said before I lean under just because I think the Bills D steps up big here.

As far as Allen not looking like that dude, idk what games you watched. They've put up 27+ in 5 straight lolz.
 
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