NBA Playoffs 2019...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Pending bets:

Utah to win West +5000
Houston to win Championship +1650
Boston to win Championship +2300


First thing first, I have not been able to be as involved with the NBA the past three months as usual but I still have a pretty solid grasp on thee league. It has been a very odd year at times. The last night of the regular season really summed things up to be honest.

I will lose one of my futures right off the bat after the fuckery that is the last 24 hours of NBA basketball. That is fine and I will have to root for Houston in the 1st round as they have a better chance of getting by GSW in the 2nd round. I was really hoping to get GSW off a Utah series for Houston later in playoffs but things change in a hurry. On the East side, I am not adding anything as of yet. If Boston makes it to the finals, I like them to beat any West team. That will mean that they have gotten their act together. Things can change, but that is my stance for now. I have something I may want to do still but will see what the numbers are tomorrow.

What should you look for in this thread? I will have a few interesting plays, and series bets if the value is there. I will try and post some thoughts after each nights games. If I have a REAL good 'Live' play I will put it in here as soon as I can. I have a busy Spring coming up but am very excited.

With that being said, lets take a peek at each first round series with a quick thought or two...


Eastern Conference:

Milwaukee vs Detroit

This will be an absolute bloodbath. I am not confident Blake plays again this year. This just feels like his usual end of the year injury. I dunno, he tried in Game 81 and couldn't do it. He has been so good this year too. I highly doubt the 'Stons win a game in this series. It will be neat to have the first ever playoff games at the Hot N Ready Arena though. If the timing is on a good night, I may go to one of them.

Toronto vs Orlando

I have been so impressed with the Magic this year. I have been so very unimpressed with the Raptors the past few months. With that being said, this is the postseason. I do think the Magic will give them some trouble in a few games but the Raps should prevail in 5-6 games or so.

Philadelphia vs Brooklyn

This series should be phenomenal. I already have some betting angles for this series I am looking at but this one excites me. The Sixers are coached by Brett Brown. This should be his last playoffs if they ever want to complete the process. This goes 6-7 games.

Boston vs Indiana

The Celtics have underachieved. The Pacers have stayed relevant even without Dipo. This should be another good series. We'll see if Boston is ready to turn it up. I like how Hayward ended the season quite a bit. I think that is a sneaky key thing for them. We shall see, Kyrie has to be healthy and be focused on this team, not the Knicks. Celtics win this in 6 games methinks


Western Conference:

Golden State vs LA Clippers

Well, this doesn't have the fire of a few years ago when it was such a fun rivalry. The Clippers have been great, they dumped players and just continued to win. They slid back to 8th but things happen. There is a betting opportunity or two here, I am just not sure yet. I have been pondering some options the past few hours. This series will be 4, maybe 5 games -- obviously.

Denver vs San Antonio

The Nuggets somehow avoid OKC in the first round when it looked like they were stuck there a few hours ago. The Spurs should challenge them a bit but this was a best case scenario for a Nuggets team I have very little confidence in. I'll say 5 games here.

Portland vs Oklahoma City

The Blazers tried to stay away from the Thunder and play the Jazz. I do not know their reasoning but it is what it is. At least we don't have to watch Blazers-Warriors again, that gets old. This should be a heck of a series. The loss of Nurk is huge. We have two awful game management coaches going at it so this should be a comedy of errors as well. OKC wins this series, and I will be betting on them to win it in some capacity.

Houston vs Utah

I don't want to talk about it. I am mad. With that being said, this will be one heck of a series. It may go 7 to be honest. The Rockets need to come out strong as the first round is no layup before a Golden State series. I'll talk about this more after the anger has died down a bit.



So, per what I said I'll do my initial playoff projections...

-Boston beats Milwaukee in 2nd round
-Toronto beats Philadelphia/Brooklyn(that series is is still a toss-up to me)
-Boston beats Toronto for the EC Championship

*Yes, I know I said that I have little confidence in the Raptors but they will have the easy side of the bracket so-to-speak.
**Yes, Milwaukee is awesome. I just think Boston gets it done. I can easily be wrong. Obviously I am hoping as much.

-Houston beats Golden State in a classic
-Oklahoma City beats Denver in less than the max number of games
-Houston beats Oklahoma City in WCF after losing first game at home.

*I have made as much on the Warriors as anyone in many capacities the past handful of years. I just do not think they win the ship this year.
**I am well aware most will pick GSW-MILW Finals
***Obviously this is the finals match-up I want but I do believe is quite possible.
****I am much more confident in Houston



Burning playoff questions:

-Can the Rockets avoid the scoring droughts at key times in important games?
-The Warriors bench needs to step up, can they?
-Boston is the enigma around the league. Do we see Kyrie n Co give it one great run?
-Philly can avoid their nemesis till ECF if both were to make a run, can they make that run?
-Kyle Lowry
-Playoff P, can he carry this Thunder team and will Russ let him?


I hope we have some fun and make some money. More to come when we start seeing some initial numbers come out.
 
Agree with most except the C's beating the Bucks, and even more so without Smart.

Bucks the most fundamentally sound team in the playoffs by the numbers.

Dysfunctional doesn't beat Fundamental. No way.
 
Oklahoma City Series -130 1.5 units


First of all, on Tuesday night I really wanted to play OKC at 66-1 to win the NBA Championship. Do I believe they will win? Nah, but this was looking at the distinct possibility of having the three best teams in the West all on the same side. Fast forward to the last night of the regular season... With Portland sitting half the team, I was glad I did not do this as it would be dead money. Well, lo and behold, the worst case scenario happened and now OKC is around 32-1 with the much easier path to the Conference Finals. It was a tough call to make, but I was basically flipping a coin. Well, now we have a perfect setup for the Thunder to make a long playoff run and it starts with...

This series.

I think the Thunder will split up in Portland. This is the reason I am playing it now. I wouldn't be surprised if they were up 2-0. They are the better team despite their late season struggles. They are favored in this series for a reason, and I got a number a bit better than some other shops. As always, I could adjust as the series goes on.
 
B.A.R. said:
Oklahoma City Series -130 1.5 units


First of all, on Tuesday night I really wanted to play OKC at 66-1 to win the NBA Championship. Do I believe they will win? Nah, but this was looking at the distinct possibility of having the three best teams in the West all on the same side. Fast forward to the last night of the regular season... With Portland sitting half the team, I was glad I did not do this as it would be dead money. Well, lo and behold, the worst case scenario happened and now OKC is around 32-1 with the much easier path to the Conference Finals. It was a tough call to make, but I was basically flipping a coin. Well, now we have a perfect setup for the Thunder to make a long playoff run and it starts with...

This series.

I think the Thunder will split up in Portland. This is the reason I am playing it now. I wouldn't be surprised if they were up 2-0. They are the better team despite their late season struggles. They are favored in this series for a reason, and I got a number a bit better than some other shops. As always, I could adjust as the series goes on.
Click to expand...
Great price at -130. I’ll probably look to do a ML chase on the first two games
 
emkee said:
Agree with most except the C's beating the Bucks, and even more so without Smart.

Bucks the most fundamentally sound team in the playoffs by the numbers.

Dysfunctional doesn't beat Fundamental. No way.
Click to expand...

Kylie will quiet his dysfunctional ways for playoffs, one would think.
 
emkee said:
Agree with most except the C's beating the Bucks, and even more so without Smart.

Bucks the most fundamentally sound team in the playoffs by the numbers.

Dysfunctional doesn't beat Fundamental. No way.
Click to expand...

Respectfully disagree. Stevens will do his best work jn the playoffs as far as making adjustments in series. Smart injury really hurts, but Cs playoff experience is very important. This series will go 7.
 
Tracking first half of first game on Saturday. Otherwise, that's it for the card. Might have an in game or halftime play.
 
skanless13 said:
Respectfully disagree. Stevens will do his best work jn the playoffs as far as making adjustments in series. Smart injury really hurts, but Cs playoff experience is very important. This series will go 7.
Click to expand...

Okay I hear you. Lot of folks hanging their hat on this C's team. Yeah they are talented but they're also toxic.

Bucks have been to the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons, last 2 seasons in succession. It's not like they're a deer in the headlights (pun intended).

This Milwaukee has been Dub-like in their rise. You're betting against some epic numbers that historically equal success.

Good health sir.
 
The Bucks aren't being discredited. Trust me, I was one year early on them (praying for a new coach sooner) on the futures. I definitely will not be surprised if they make Finals. I also don't think it's a foregone conclusion. I'm excited to see it all unfold though!
 
I think mikwaukee good but no where near the talent of dubs.... will be interesting to see how Brad defends them... i still think the celtics are team to beat regardless of how banded together they are or not... i think playoffs like dubs is where they rise to occassion... Smart may be best defender but i think it. Helps Brad solidy rotation better dont prefer Smarts offensive side cuz hes just a chucker... Contain bledose penetration force giannis to shoot n see how bucks make it.. be fun to watch unfold
 
No real surprises so far...

The Nets/Magic wins and Spurs not a huge surprise.

Be careful zig-zagging... ya never know....

Detroit is simply a token part of these playoffs not being at full strength...

I feel fine about OKC still.

Houston with an opening statement.

----------------------

Tonight, I will be tracking the first game LIVE. The 2nd game, I am not sure of much as of now. We shall see.
 
Let me explain that play since we are at halftime.

I will most likely buy back on this at some point. It goes against my conventional Live Betting in that I am giving up a bunch of value but this pace calls for it and there is a special factor at work... the game is chippy. They are going to call it close this half, imo, and that means into the bonus much quicker each quarter most likely.

I could be way off, but that is why I played it when I did. I can totally see it dipping down to start the 3rd and have another target number for 1.5 more units.

I also have some targets I am looking for on the side but we shall see. I paused on Nets +10.5 twice so far in the 2nd qtr.
 
Well, before my Live betting went off (3 mins of game time earlier than usual, but a blowout) 257.5 was out there as a middle opportunity. I kept thinking about it but will sweat these scrubs out scoring here rest of the game.
 
number2 said:
Thanks for this play......played 2half over which is around this number......really wanted to play over today after all game 1’s went under and took nets instead......
Click to expand...
No problem, yeah it was basically like playing the 2nd half over. I played it then due to chippiness... figuring that I might get a few extra points before halftime. It didn't happen but that is fine.
 
Stalking a number on this Warriors/Clippers game as a starting point. I think I have the right idea as looking at numbers right now indicates. We shall see how the start of the quarter goes.
 
B.A.R. said:
Stalking a number on this Warriors/Clippers game as a starting point. I think I have the right idea as looking at numbers right now indicates. We shall see how the start of the quarter goes.
Click to expand...
Okay, pretty close now...

Just gonna sit here and post it when I play it. This isn't for sure a 'final' bet, I may try and middle. I do think this is the 'correct' play though.
 
B.A.R. said:
Warriors/Clippers Under 253 -115 1.5 units
Click to expand...
Looks to be kinda dead.

Clippers just poured in 44 points in the quarter and now the game is close enough that GSW has to try for more than 3 minutes of the 4th quarter. Not much you can do about that. I would have said if GSW had 34 in 3rd after that start that we had around 10 points of value right now. This is playground ball, more suited for the middle of February but obviously the Warriors know they can toy with this team.

If it hits back to this number before Live goes off for the night I will buy back most likely. I doubt that happens but would advise.

2nd half total of 130 is all you can ask for, nothing more and nothing less.
 
1-1 (0.73 units)

Clippers gonna get near 100 in a half, nothing you can do. I'd play it again.
 
Well, that bet is done. I know I said that they wouldn't be much of a playoff foe but this is an embarrassing effort.
 
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