Sup buddy.... Give me 5 to get settled in....
NBA Playoffs 2019...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Okay,
Let me first say that I do not regret the play at -125. It is worth it to me to be honest with how I felt the KD status was up in the air. I am not surprised it went to PK but right now it is a bit out of hand, that is all.
As far as the bet.
I have 3.75 to win 3.00
Three basic ideas to start with...
1.) Toronto comes out and controls the game from the middle of 1st quarter and on. I keep the bet and never have any real issues.
2.) Toronto at some point in the first 42 minutes gets up a comfortable amount to induce a +375 ML or so (this number could vary, it just depends how much I want to free roll on the Raptors). Lets use that as the example though. I then can bet GSW 1.00 to win 3.75, therefore covering my original bet and letting me risk 0.00 to win 2.00 on Toronto.
3.) The game goes back and forth. I am able to get positive moneylines on both sides a few times and just keep trading. I then take a position or have pure profit. This is fun, but you can get 'stuck' sometimes. Obviously if GSW wins w2w tonight I am stuck as well but that is fine with me, I have the side I want to start the game
Idea #2 is what I did in Game 3 in Oakland, for example.
I think the Raptors close it out tonight, but my eyes will tell me more...and adjustments will come on the fly. If I don't post it in here, I will in the in-game. I have crushed this series (unposted 2h tt over 54.5 on Friday Raps) and hope to do so one more time.
Good luck to all.
Chopped that back with GSW -133 2 units
Toronto 2 to win 4.18
GSW 2.66 to win 2
So, overall I have Tor 3.75 units to win 4.52
Glad I bought back that 2nd play.
I never had the opportunity to get some gsw at + money but in all honesty 9 out of 10 times you watch a game like that and a team leads all game and finally succumbs the lead...its over...
No "ragrats".
I'll tell ya right now, don't just assume this is coming back to Canada. Break this game down a little bit...
I'll have some thoughts Thursday morning.
I never had the opportunity to get some gsw at + money but in all honesty 9 out of 10 times you watch a game like that and a team leads all game and finally succumbs the lead...its over...
No "ragrats".
I'll tell ya right now, don't just assume this is coming back to Canada. Break this game down a little bit...
I'll have some thoughts Thursday morning.
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
It’s not coming back to Canada. Toronto +4!
That is my initial thought.
I gotta let the dust settle a bit first but...as of this second...yeah...
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
It’s tough but I think Toronto wins that game if not for what Durant gave GS and the fire they played with after his injury. But it’s also hard to see GS going 0-3 at Oracle.
I was reading an article about the 2010 US Open the other day and saw the fashion 'faux pas' by some guys back then...and this was just about the worse one...the white pants with pinstripes...
Game 6:
Lets talk about the three-point shot for a little bit...
This season the Warriors made an average of around 13.3 threes made per games.
In this series, they have made 12 - 13 - 12 - 8 - 20
The Raptors give up the 8th least amount of threes made per game with 10.8...
Golden State scored 106 points in an elimination game on twenty made threes. That is an exception, not the rule.
The Warriors have yet to break 109 points in a game (which has been noted several times).
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The Raptors are an excellent defensive team and they have made the spacing of the Warriors very uncomfortable for most of this series. This will be exasperated again tonight with no KD. Things did open up a bit by having him as a spot up shooter the other night. This is the biggest thing tonight. Are you expecting a WAY above normal three-point performance from the Warriors again? Or are you expecting something more in line with season averages and series averages?
Next, The Raptors can play solid defense all they want but they must score. They took many ill-advised threes the other night. The best two-way player in the game was getting mugged the entire first half and couldn't garner a call. He was pretty average until that spurt that seemed to be paving the way to a championship.... until the Nurse timeout. Lowry is the catalyst and he must stay out of foul trouble and continue to penetrate and not settle on the perimeter/or pound the shot clock down Harden style.
What am I not worried about tonight when capping this game?
"The Warriors couldn't possibly lose three straight at Oracle"
"The Warriors are trying to win this for KD"
What am I worried about when capping this game?
The DMC factor... he has had two excellent games. Can he bring two straight big efforts?
In a close game.... which coach do you trust?
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I definitely believe that things regress to the median in all phases of life generally.
Tonight...
GSW isn't making 20 threes again
TOR should shoot the three a bit better
Kawhi will get more FT opportunities
That, right there is a big swing in points from Game 5 to Game 6 and also much more indicative of how the series has went.
My one worry for the Raptors? That they are scarred after the other night. They had a hand on the trophy and choked it away.
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I do think the Raptors close this out tonight. I won't recommend betting the number right now because you are already losing 1.5 points of the opener. If we see the line climb again later, I may be enticed but I think I want to get a feel for this game first. This should be another very good game. I am looking forward to it.
If I can (not home tonight) I will post any Live play.
Good luck all, enjoy the game.
Lets talk about the three-point shot for a little bit...
This season the Warriors made an average of around 13.3 threes made per games.
In this series, they have made 12 - 13 - 12 - 8 - 20
The Raptors give up the 8th least amount of threes made per game with 10.8...
Golden State scored 106 points in an elimination game on twenty made threes. That is an exception, not the rule.
The Warriors have yet to break 109 points in a game (which has been noted several times).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Raptors are an excellent defensive team and they have made the spacing of the Warriors very uncomfortable for most of this series. This will be exasperated again tonight with no KD. Things did open up a bit by having him as a spot up shooter the other night. This is the biggest thing tonight. Are you expecting a WAY above normal three-point performance from the Warriors again? Or are you expecting something more in line with season averages and series averages?
Next, The Raptors can play solid defense all they want but they must score. They took many ill-advised threes the other night. The best two-way player in the game was getting mugged the entire first half and couldn't garner a call. He was pretty average until that spurt that seemed to be paving the way to a championship.... until the Nurse timeout. Lowry is the catalyst and he must stay out of foul trouble and continue to penetrate and not settle on the perimeter/or pound the shot clock down Harden style.
What am I not worried about tonight when capping this game?
"The Warriors couldn't possibly lose three straight at Oracle"
"The Warriors are trying to win this for KD"
What am I worried about when capping this game?
The DMC factor... he has had two excellent games. Can he bring two straight big efforts?
In a close game.... which coach do you trust?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely believe that things regress to the median in all phases of life generally.
Tonight...
GSW isn't making 20 threes again
TOR should shoot the three a bit better
Kawhi will get more FT opportunities
That, right there is a big swing in points from Game 5 to Game 6 and also much more indicative of how the series has went.
My one worry for the Raptors? That they are scarred after the other night. They had a hand on the trophy and choked it away.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I do think the Raptors close this out tonight. I won't recommend betting the number right now because you are already losing 1.5 points of the opener. If we see the line climb again later, I may be enticed but I think I want to get a feel for this game first. This should be another very good game. I am looking forward to it.
If I can (not home tonight) I will post any Live play.
Good luck all, enjoy the game.
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
Great analysis. I agree about Oracle and the KD factor. Initially those concerned me but I believe you are correct. Also think Boogie is the X factor as we have seen in every game. His play determines whether or not they win or lose. On the bad leg it’s so hard to know what we will get from him. Lean Toronto here, too. Any lean on the total?
Great write-up. I agree betting Raps now would be irresponsible. Fully expect the Warriors to manage at any point in the game to get the live number back above two possessions and then i‘ll hop in at some point.
I wanted to throw another angle out there just for shits and giggles: If the Warriors win tonight I wouldn’t put it past them to go to Toronto and win there as well. If they do, my first question will be “WTF? You took a huge risk with Durant’s health when you already had the firepower you needed to win without any risk to Durant?”
To me it looks like some people in the Warriors organization itself don’t believe the Warriors have much of a chance against the Raptors without KD...
To me it looks like some people in the Warriors organization itself don’t believe the Warriors have much of a chance against the Raptors without KD...
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
Money!
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