BAW Nation 2024-2025 Season...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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We'll keep the one thread this season.

The plays will be sporadic overall.

Props early on while they are soft.

Occasional live totals will be posted if I can get them up WA.

We have a few super situations as noted in the other thread.

General thoughts as well.

I think my hometown boys will be much more competitive this year. No, I am not calling for playoffs or anything like that. But, I think they will win some games they shouldn't. This coach will keep them accountable. They will try on defense a lot more.

They finished 4th in preseason defensive rating -- so the effort is there

Cade extension means he needs to fully blossom. The stats have been there -- now the time is here to elevate the team as a whole.

Langdon and company signed plenty of shooters. They should be much improved in this area -- they have to be

Ausur starts the season inactive -- fwiw -- blood clots

I expect that this team doubles their wins and could crack the 30 barrier.

Detroit RSW O25.5 -110 2.5 units

Elsewhere, I played some futures right after the NBA Finals that were posted in the off-season threads. To recap...

Indiana to win Championship 50-1

Memphis to win Championship 40-1 (at @HUNT urging)

I added this one tonight...

New Orleans to win Championship 45-1

Now, I went into the futures process hoping for at least 10-1 on the Knicks and that never happened. Same goes for OKC -- but the value we had on them last year (33 and 85) is simply gone. I'll probably add a few more in-season as we get going.

My gut feeling now is New York vs TBA in the West. Yes, OKC is trendy and could very well do it.

Overall, the league is down again. This league is just very 'mid' as the kids say right now. The cycles of life at play.,.

Philadelphia and health will be the fun thing to watch.

Nuggets are sort of stuck with this roster.

Lakers will probably be a bit better this year but I'm not seeing a Finals run. Perhaps fighting for HCA.

Mavs? They know they can do it. What move do they make in-season?

Suns? Nope. Average team.

Minnesota with the big trade that overall I do not like. I love Dante but the Randle fit isn't the best.

Memphis -- they'll improve that record quite a bit.

Warriors likely miss the playoffs.

Back in the East, the Pacers should be pretty good again. Wil they make a move?

Boston is Boston. Do they have the motivation?

LOVE the Bridges pick-up in NY, Now, can KAT stay in games in playoff situations? Or will be in foul trouble nightly. Then there is his health...

Milwaukee is Denver of the East -- sorta stuck right now. Good, but not great.

The rest of the east isn't all that inspiring.
 
Indiana ML -189


The first game, new staff, I think we see some highs and lows from the Stons. Indiana has had their number and this should be no different. Despite Detroit's improved defense during the preseason, I expect some points as well...

I like this ML number being under 190, hence not laying the points.

I would recommend OVER in this game as well and will monitor that for a possible live/HT play as well.
 
Boston is by far the best in the East, even when NYK puts it all together i don't think their depth is comparable. Orlando or Cleveland could grab a top 3 seed - i'm on Orlando o47.5 rsw
 
Agree with most. After they won it so easily last year I said it's Boston and all the rest for the next few years. loaded line up, still young and in prime. Expensive as shit. After last night, think that's still the case. Motivation doesn't seem to be a problem - these guys like Tatum Brown want to be considered all time greats and know they have to get to 4 or more titles. Plus the Olympics slight of Brown and Tatum getting benched alot will motivate them as well even if they don't say it. Injuries aside I don't see any team that can beat them 4 of 7. They bomb 3s all game and all you can do is hope they have a cold night. Long season and they'll have bad spells but no one close in my opinion. Now how to make money on all this - NBA is so tough.
 
survive&advance said:
Boston is by far the best in the East, even when NYK puts it all together i don't think their depth is comparable. Orlando or Cleveland could grab a top 3 seed - i'm on Orlando o47.5 rsw
Click to expand...
Teams like ORL and CLE are the perfect teams to do the RSW bets on.

Max effort, very little 'resting'.

Boston likely is -- hoping they aren't lol.

I'm watching the Celtics closely early on.
 
Pacers eventually got the win.

Solid game both ways.

I still like how that 2h over set up. I was close to going Pacers TT and that would have been the smart choice.

Detroit mini drought in 4th cost this part of the bet.
 
B.A.R. said:
Wemby o10.5 rebounds -145
Click to expand...
I dunno, this one ticks me off.

First of all, he grabbed his 9th rebound with 10 mins left in the 4th. I watched the stat line move from 8 to 9 and stay at 9 through the Mavs run right after.

He then grabbed a 10th rebound with 7 mins or so left. The play by play shows this.

Yet, he sits at 9 total on all boxscores.

Dunno.

Either way, he didn't touch 30 mins. Last year he was at 29.7 mpg in his initial campaign. Spurs pulled the plug early tonight.

They'll end with 52 rebounds and that's wild he doesn't hit DDs in that case. That's with DD offensive rebounds too!

Oh well. What can ya do?
 
Not betting anything here but boxscore capping + watching....

Under in 2h @ Sac 113.5 would be worth a bite IMO.

Fouls would be the issue. No way that 1h should have broken 110 without whistles.

Pace isn't there.

Lean over (116) in Denver.

I was hoping a bit smaller # to play, will check live.
 
Full changing of the guard in Denver.

Goodness, such a stark contrast.

Glad I didn't bet 2hs, because nothing good would of happened.

On the Sabonis bet, simply not enough rebounds tonight. We're late 3rd and mid 20s for Kings. I didn't expect that. Maybe he gets a flurry, shall see.

Watching this weekend and back at it on Monday with some more data.
 
B.A.R. said:
I dunno, this one ticks me off.

First of all, he grabbed his 9th rebound with 10 mins left in the 4th. I watched the stat line move from 8 to 9 and stay at 9 through the Mavs run right after.

He then grabbed a 10th rebound with 7 mins or so left. The play by play shows this.

Yet, he sits at 9 total on all boxscores.

Dunno.

Either way, he didn't touch 30 mins. Last year he was at 29.7 mpg in his initial campaign. Spurs pulled the plug early tonight.

They'll end with 52 rebounds and that's wild he doesn't hit DDs in that case. That's with DD offensive rebounds too!

Oh well. What can ya do?
Click to expand...
IIRC Pop hinted at limiting him earlier to start this season due to the olympics
 
survive&advance said:
IIRC Pop hinted at limiting him earlier to start this season due to the olympics
Click to expand...
Yeah, I figured still get to 30 a game like his limited rookie year.

He would have gotten there tonight if not for the early surrender.

Good note for peeps though.

Still seems statistically impossible that he had only 9 on that many opportunities.
 
Stons lose tonight but watching the 1st half I see improvements...


Effort
Ivey
Cade
Starting 5 as a whole

Depth and foul trouble vs Bigs will be an issue.

Need to be less sloppy as well with the ball.
 
B.A.R. said:
Stons lose tonight but watching the 1st half I see improvements...


Effort
Ivey
Cade
Starting 5 as a whole

Depth and foul trouble vs Bigs will be an issue.

Need to be less sloppy as well with the ball.
Click to expand...
Stons with a few close losses lately but still at 4-7 after that very tough first 5 games to start.

Happy.
 
No posted plays in a bit.

I've been concentrating on 2nd halves the past few weeks. Very solid success to be honest. Let's see if that translates here as we start to post them.

Strictly looking at pace, tendencies and obviously targeting what certain teams do.

So, hopefully have some action around 9:15 tonight.

No forcing of any plays.

I do LEAN under in the 1st half tonight in the Nets-Pels game at 108.5. That might become a play.
 
Glad it was only a lean.

They scored 30 in last 5:40 of half to get just over.

A few plays very close fwiw.

Lean UNDER in Houston but will wait.


Brooklyn 2h o101 -105

That's official. We shall see what happens. These teams I usually like unders but the value on the over here.

Think we see 105-106.
 
Had to middle. I don't like the margin here, might lose the last 40-50 seconds to shot clock shenanigans.
 
B.A.R. said:
Live -

Cleveland TT o125.5 -117 1.5 units
Click to expand...
That entire 2h was a dead under, unfortunately.

I haven't been live betting much but dipped my toe tonight -- not to much success.

This game ended quickly, with not much happening late even in a pretty close game.
 
B.A.R. said:
Glad it was only a lean.

They scored 30 in last 5:40 of half to get just over.

A few plays very close fwiw.

Lean UNDER in Houston but will wait.


Brooklyn 2h o101 -105

That's official. We shall see what happens. These teams I usually like unders but the value on the over here.

Think we see 105-106.
Click to expand...
Happy with this one.

As I said, seeing these 2H's well.

Stick to this for a bit and see how they continue.

Few nights a week.

My lean in Houston was an event better play on that under.

Back tomorrow.
 
First set of 2hs ..

Atlanta living at the line. Can that continue? I'm going to keep a stalk on this live for another OVER perhaps.

Nice pace in Detroit....Cade hasn't even made a shot ...

Everything points to a UNDER in Horhets and Magic. I'm going to watch this for a bit in the 3rd. Very close to a play now but I'll wait. This should end in the 90s. Take away Franz and that 1h doesn't break 100.

Detroit 2h o104 -110

We gained a half point as I typed up my thoughts.
 
Slight lean 2h over in Philly.

Pace isn't bad -- shooting is for Philly. FTs have held them up.

I'll keep an eye on this one live.
 
Sloppy effort from the Raptors so far in Milwaukee.

Pace does dictate an over for the 2h, usually.

The number is spot on, but I need to see this Raptors team do something first.

Another stalk ...
 
B.A.R. said:
First set of 2hs ..

Atlanta living at the line. Can that continue? I'm going to keep a stalk on this live for another OVER perhaps.

Nice pace in Detroit....Cade hasn't even made a shot ...

Everything points to a UNDER in Horhets and Magic. I'm going to watch this for a bit in the 3rd. Very close to a play now but I'll wait. This should end in the 90s. Take away Franz and that 1h doesn't break 100.

Detroit 2h o104 -110

We gained a half point as I typed up my thoughts.
Click to expand...
Worked out as expected from the 1h.

Really proud of my Stons these past couple weeks.

Good to see. Coaching DOES matter.
 
B.A.R. said:
Live -

Boston TT o119.5 -114
Click to expand...
Think I can stop with these live TTs.

Just not working so far.

Celtics with an absolute abysmal first 9 mins of the 4th.

As a 16 point favorite, in a close game in the 3rd, I figured that they would open it up in the 4th.

On the OTHER hand -- star player out angle once again!!
 
Was trying to put some action here in OT but bet didn't get accepted

Very lucky because I'd have a loss lol.

Refs calling a lot of fouls
 
B.A.R. said:
Something wild would to happen...

Takes two to tango, and these Sixers are liable for droughts. Gross effort in the 4th.
Click to expand...
Well, 39 in the last 6:22 happened.

Thank you gambling gods!!

(I also had a 199.5 unposted so doubly excited)
 
Everything spot on in Phoenix and Utah.

I don't see an advantage on this 2h either way.
 
GridironGems said:
I miss them 5 unit plays from back in the day
Click to expand...
We might have some GREAT situations down the line bud ...



B.A.R.

Thread 'NBA 'Super Situation' for the upcoming 2024-2025 Season...'

You know the deal with this... they rarely schedule these anymore but through my initial schedule capping I have located one....

For those wondering, this is the deal...

A team hits the road for a 5+ game road trip with all the other games in the other conference.

Said team then has one day off after the last game before their first home game of the trip.

Immediately after that home game, they once again hit the road on a B2B for a road game.

The thinking here is the players arrive back home and have little time to reacclimate. By the time that b2b road games hits, they are...
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Peak it and mark on your calendar.
 
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