NBA Playoff Plays (First Round)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular Season:

55-48 (+23.42)

Saturday.

Game One,

Golden State Warriors (6) at Los Angeles Clippers (3)

The play...

Warriors +7.5 (1.5 units)

Dubs are my first play and pretty much an auto one. Somewhat of a rivalry so no-one will be taking a game off. Clips are perennial chumps (even on CP3's watch) and the biggest smoke and mirrors team in the playoffs. Will pay to see if LAC have developed a spine. Better defensive team getting points also helps.

GSW 18-1-1 ATS as a dog or fave of less than 3-points in the 1st round.

Sean Wright a ref in this one so will keep it small as a precautionary measure.

Game One,

Memphis Grizzlies (7) at Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

The play...

Thunder -7.5 (4 units)

Fave play for sure, love the spot for the Thunder. OKC get to play the team that knocked them out last season and also the team that battled to the death with the Mavs in order to play them and avoid the 1-seeded Spurs (apparently OKC are the weaker of the two even though they owned SA in the regular season). That right there is plenty motivation for Durant and Co. Like OKC to shit-whip 'em outta the gate in Game 1.

Consider the refs favorable as well. Tony Brothers, ftw.

Lean Nets (very slightly) and Pacers (spread stinks so will most likely avoid).

:shake:
 
Like GS too

very strong play by you in the other, so may just ride with ya

GL in the post Beanie
 
Heading into these playoffs I agree with your assessment of the Clippers, and to this point, I think it's fair to say that Chris Paul really hasn't done shit in this league. That being said, the improvement by Griffin, and the addition of Rivers, who is not great at X and O's but has two rings may change things. Gonna sit out game 1 and see what develops.

Good Luck Emkee.
 
Thanks Canes.

All the fave chasers gonna be out in full force on OKC given the day's results, which kinda sucks.
 
Twink...

:shake:

Spread matters around 20% of the time in the playoffs.

So OKC covers or loses SU.
 
Nice work tonight. Thought the Grizz had you on the ropes with about 8 to go, only because I temporarily forgot it was the NBA. Nice night!
 
Leaned Heat but not happy with the refs, namely Jason Phillips. Line should have opened at 10.5 also - so pass.

May look for something in-play with Miami but will definitely be playing something in the evening games.
 
2-0 (+5.5)

Game 2,

Memphis Grizzlies (7) at Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

The play...

Thunder -7.5 +105 (2 to win 2.1)

:shake:
 
Going against the grain a bit tonight.

Don't think the Thunder will take the Grizz lightly after being eliminated last season when up 1-0 in the series. Yeah, the Grizz came back in the 3rd or as I see it - OKC didn't show up in the 3rd but the fact of the matter is Memphis still lost by double-digits even with OKC pissing around in the 2nd half.

2-seed v 7-seed is for the faves.

Leaning slightly to GS late, their prowess as a 1st round dog/small fave can't be ignored regardless of them being the dangerous 'public dog'.
 
Refs are somewhat impartial but Callahan and Garretson have been known as 'series eveners/series extenders' in the past.
 
Will avoid trying to read this team's psyche from here on in. They've put themselves in the exact same position they were in last postseason. Too much smoke gets blown up their ass leading to a lack of killer instinct and they're coached by an idiot.

Zig-zag ran true last night. Some decent looking spots today.

Building a book on the refs for future reference.
 
2-1 (+3.5)

Game 2,

Washington Wizards (5) at Chicago Bulls (4)

The play...

Bulls -5.5 (3 units)

Solid zig-to-the-zag spot here.

Wiz off their first playoff win since 2008, coming from behind and scoring 100+ on the road. Should induce some definite flatness, imo.

On the other side Thibs will have 'em ready, Bulls too proud and will bring the 'lunch pails' to work tonight and won't get eaten up in the paint again.

Bulls 12-1 ATS last 13 games after allowing 100+ points.

:shake:
 
Damn. Thibs got beat twice by Wittman.

Disappointing showing at home by the Bulls, get run down in the 4th twice in a row. Didn't see that.

Would bet that spot 9 times outta 10, just wasn't a Chicago-backers night.

Kudos to the Wiz for not letting the Game 1 win get to their head, they were always the better roster from the start - just thought Chicago would lay a defensive smackdown in 1 of the games at home.

Moving on, will get it back tonight.
 
2-2 (+0.5)

Lost my last two plays, 1st round is more of a feel out round with the idea being not to get into too much of a hole as the 2nd round is proven to be more profitable and the situations slightly more enhanced.

Game 2,

Portland Trail Blazers (5) at Houston Rockets (4)

The play...

Rockets -6.5 (3 units)

Got the 'bad' number given the spread opened at 5.5 but I doubt it comes into play here. Another spot I'd play 9 times outta 10. Anticipating a blowout plus the league dropped a statement basically saying they cost Houston the game last time out, Rox should get the calls. Have this line at 7 by my numbers.

Stewing over a play on the Heat due to some favorable trends and intangibles. Movement keeping me off for now.

:shake:
 
2-3 (-2.56)

Fallen on tough times with some poor reads.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

The play...

Grizzlies ML +130 (3 to win 3.9)

:shake:
 
Thanks P2W...

Fading the steam it seems.

Grizz with all the mojo and back home where they excel, can't ignore a play on them here.

Points are irrelevant, Grizz win straight up or fail to cover (points come into play roughly 20% of the time in the postseason).

Gonna throw out some numbers...

'Lower seed' is 21-11 SU (65%) at home in Game 3 when the series is tied at 1-1 in Round 1.

'Lower seed' is 9-3 SU (75%) at home in Game 3 when the series is tied at 1-1 in Round 1 if they lost Game 1 and won Game 2.

OKC are 0-4 SU in Game 3 when tied 1-1 in a best-of-seven series.

OKC are 3-10 ATS last 10 road games, 2-9 ATS last 11 playoff games and 1-6 ATS last 7 playoff games vs Memphis.

Grizz are 14-0 SU last 14 home games.

Grizz are 3-1 SU in Game 3 when tied 1-1 in a best-of-seven series.

Refs in this one are a combined 25-7 ATS (20-12 SU) for home dogs of 4.5 or less.
 
you'd be a man on an island there

and that is usually a good thing....

1st game back in the Yay? And dogged? I cannot bro....health if you do:shake:
 
3-3 (+1.34)

Bounce of the ball went my way last night with the Grizz ML.

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (Game 3)

The play...

Rockets ML +130 (3 to win 3.9)

:shake:
 
Spot play.

Rockets off 2 straight losses with Harden and Parsons going MIA, like them to salvage a game here on the back of those two underachievers. Think there will be nerves aplenty by the Blazers back at home after excelling on the road and LA won't hit everything he throws at the basket this time around.

Houston is 10-3 SU in Game 3's when trailing a best-of-seven series 0-2 as a franchise (pointless trend but threw it in there anyway).

Hate seeing Danny Crawford as a ref but got's to roll with the punches.
 
4-3 (+5.24)

Fortunate again last night with the Rockets.

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (Game 3)

The play...

Spurs -3.5 (1.5 units)

Like the spot, hate the refs so going just under standard.

Will be playing the late game also.

:shake:
 
Last edited:
adding...

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies Game 4

The play...

Grizzlies +3.5 -115 (2.3 to win 2)

As much as I'd like to take the Thunder here, I can't.

Riding with the Grizz again although I'm taking the points this time given the magnitude of this game for both sides. Nothing has changed much since Game 3 except for OKC's desperation. Grizz know that if they win here, they're sitting in pole-position for this series. OKC bench is getting owned.

Again, some numbers...

'Lower seed' is 17-6 SU (.739) at home in Game 4 when leading the series 2-1 in Round 1.

'Lower seed' is 7-2 SU (.778) at home in Game 4 when leading the series 2-1 in Round 1 if they lost Game 1, won Game 2 and won Game 3.

OKC are 3-11 ATS last 14 road games, 2-10 ATS last 12 playoff games and 1-7 ATS last 8 playoff games vs Memphis.

OKC are 0-3 SU (0-3 ATS) last 3 Game 4's.

Grizz are 15-0 SU last 14 home games.

:shake:
 
For the record regarding Mavs v Spurs earlier, numbers I chose to ignore...

'Lower seed' is 22-11 SU (.666) at home in Game 3 when the series is tied at 1-1 in Round 1.

'Lower seed' is 10-3 SU (.769) at home in Game 3 when the series is tied at 1-1 in Round 1 if they lost Game 1 and won Game 2.

Hate hindsight.

:puking:
 
It's all about momentum which equals belief. Grizz have that in spades right now much like Dallas.

Only thing OKC has going for them tonight is they have the more talented roster (starters only, their bench stinks), Lang (lol) and possibly the refs. Perception is they have to win tonight so they will.

If I lose so be it but by the numbers, perceived team psyche I believe I'm on the right side.
 
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