Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 3 Mon 2023

01:10 PM
951New York MetsC. Carrasco -R+1½
-190		+108O 7½
-110
952Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-118U 7½
-110
02:10 PM
971San Francisco GiantsA. DeSclafani -R+1½
-170		+125O 8½
-105
972Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R+1 Markets-1½
+150		-135U 8½
-115
05:40 PM
953Chicago CubsD. Smyly -L-1½
+130		-120O 8½
+100
954Cincinnati RedsC. Overton -R+1 Markets+1½
-150		+110U 8½
-120
05:40 PM
973Minnesota TwinsT. Mahle -R-1½
+135		-125O 7½
-116
974Miami MarlinsJ. Cueto -R+1 Markets+1½
-155		+115U 7½
-104
06:05 PM
975Philadelphia PhilliesT. Walker -R+1½
-145		+143O 8
-105
976New York YankeesN. Cortes -L+1 Markets-1½
+125		-155U 8
-115
06:05 PM
977Tampa Bay RaysD. Rasmussen -R-171O 8½
+100
978Washington NationalsT. Williams -R+1 Markets+157U 8½
-120
06:10 PM
979Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Oviedo -R+1½
-130		+151O 9½
-105
980Boston Red SoxK. Crawford -R+1 Markets-1½
+110		-164U 9½
-115
06:40 PM
961Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R-1½
+125		-122O 8½
-120
962Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R+1 Markets+1½
-145		+112U 8½
+100
06:45 PM
955Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-1½
+130		-124O 8
-120
956St. Louis CardinalsJ. Woodford -R+1 Markets+1½
-150		+114U 8
+100
07:05 PM
963Baltimore OriolesK. Bradish -R+130O 8½
-110
964Texas RangersJ. Gray -R+1 Markets-141U 8½
-110
07:10 PM
965Detroit TigersM. Boyd -L+1½
-105		+206O 8½
-115
966Houston AstrosH. Brown -R+1 Markets-1½
-115		-228U 8½
-105
08:40 PM
957Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R+1½
-165		+123O 8½
-102
958San Diego PadresR. Weathers -L+1 Markets-1½
+145		-133U 8½
-118
08:40 PM
967Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R-142O 7½
-105
968Oakland AthleticsJ. Kaprielian -R+1 Markets+131U 7½
-115
08:40 PM
969Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L+1½
-165		+134O 7
-130
970Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R+1 Markets-1½
+145		-145U 7
+110
09:10 PM
959Colorado RockiesR. Feltner -R+1½
-105		+196O 8½
-120
960Los Angeles DodgersM. Grove -R+1 Markets-1½
-115		-215U 8½
+100
 
I like peralta but Milw favs over Mets seems a tad redic. Ill have to look at Carrasco and make sure he not gonna allow hr’s to the over swinging brewers but def lean Mets,
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Can i get that capping breakdown yet? How you cap k props
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Mahle is more bout fish than him, he capable enough and throws a spitter, it ain’t on the level that “ghost forkball” Senga was throwing but still think he should get a lot of swings and misses on it either to put hitter away or if he has the guts to throw it in fastball counts. I think fish have done a pretty good job improving their lineup but outside Arraez, who was a really good get even if they had to give up a lot they could afford to trade a starting pitcher, they still have a lot of swing and miss in that lineup. Little concerned about Mahle’s spring, not the results so much but I read his velo was down a few ticks, it was better his last start but something to keep a eye on. If he himself I don’t see much reason why he doesn’t pitch 5 innings and get 1k per inning. Not a ton of value with a little juice on ov4.5, I’ll prob leave it alone given his spring.
 
number2 said:
Anthony Volpe for the Yanks had 3 steals in his first 3 games already…..suck part is that he only went 2-9 with 2 walks….
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I noticed that, by last game I was really wanting to play his steals but just wasn’t sure he get on base.
 
Man, they came with some stronger k props today, I was hoping maybe a 3.5, 4.5 at most on Smyly and they come with a mfin 5.5? I can’t play that!
 
Marte another one who seems to be all bout running, outta be able to trust he gets on base more, not sure bout against peralta today tho.
 
Pirates outta be able to score some runs today, having to open up facing those 3 bad mofo’s the reds have not a easy task for anyone. Today they get kutter Crawford who splits vs lefties been awful and pirates can stack lineup w at least 5-6 lefty bats, Sox pen hasn’t been good either. Wind blowing out in Fenway again and not only has this dude struggled w lh but he also a fly ball pitcher. Another high scoring Red Sox game? 5.5 k’s for Crawford feels redic to me. If I played k prop unders there be several today, can’t decide if I wanna go there or not? I want to back pirates but I’m not sure bout Oviedo, he has good stuff but think he probably better suited for the pen being mostly a fb/slider guy. I’d like to know what he was throwing this spring cause he has a decent change and curve he just doesn’t use them for one reason or another. He did fan 14 w no walks his last 2 spring games. Pirates Ff makes sense, I’d like to have them be able to hit against Sox pen also but I’m assuming the decent era pirates pen has at moment is mostly cause of facing the reds soft lineup. This def feels like a over to me and wanna play pirates Ff also
 
I don’t play a lot of favs (well I did take reds Ff yesterday around same price as this). I think Cws-130 is fairly cheap if they anything close to what I think they can be and after watching San Fran offense look mostly terrible in yanks band box. Woulda loved to get kopech at 4.5 k’s but once again they not playing today and have him at 5.5, he could certainly fan 6+ giants but I gotta see him get closer to the numbers he posted as a reliever, switching to starter he lost a few ticks on heater and his k/9 and swinging strike rate nose dived. I woulda took a shot he get 5k’s with way sf swinging the bats but it be foolish to play over 5.5 when he only fanned 6+ in like 6 of 25 starts last year. I like the way cws played in houston vs defending champs and think they can take 2 of 3 vs giants so -130 not bad imo.
 
I feel like they might not have yet figured out cardinals not anywhere close to the team they been. I thought the 7.5 yesterday was silly low and now today we gonna get the warmest day of year, nothing crazy but 70s w a nice breeze blowing out again. I really don’t think Jake woodford talented enough to deal w Braves lineup 2-3x around, I really don’t think he a big league starter it just speaks to cards serious lack of starting pitching depth. I wouldn’t buy into fhe strong spring numbers, while other guys were just trying to get ready for season this dude was giving everything he had trying to make team, no clue why he in front of Matz in the rotation cause if healthy matz obviously a better pitcher.,

Morton solid but he getting long in the tooth for a power pitcher, I’m sure he be fine but it often takes these older guys little more time to get the motor going. He pitched once in stl last year and cards got 4 runs off him in 5 innings curtesy of 2 bombs, this cards lineup is even deeper and more talented that last years. They had no problem getting to 2 really solid jays starters, gausman being the only one who had succes, he dominated them and deserved better but cards still managed 8 hits but the runs were unearned. I don’t think Morton is on Gausman level these days, cards are gonna score runs, Braves are def gonna score runs off woodford. I have no problem saying I expect both teams score 4+ which obviously means over 8.
 
peelpub94 said:
Love using this site to help research hitter props

fantasyteamadvisors.com

MLB DFS BVP Matchups - FantasyTeamAdvisors

MLB DFS BVP Matchups. Below you can find our MLB Hitter Matchup Ratings tool. This...
fantasyteamadvisors.com fantasyteamadvisors.com
Click to expand...

This really 1st year I have embraced playing them, my lack of dfs success made me shy away but I actually been pretty solid so far, picking out a few guys not as hard as a compete lineup! Lol. I’ll def check it out. @VirginiaCavs just told me bout baseball savant this season, that site is pretty awesome also.
 
I was terrible capping Cortes pretty much the whole season so I wasn’t gonna mess w that game but maybe I should look closer.
 
Wish I woulda got it sooner but couldn’t get to Illinios till now.

Carrasco ov 4.5 k’s -150

I parlayed with cws-130
 
Pirates Ff +115
Pirates Ff tt ov 2.5 +125
Pirates 1st 7 inn ov 3.5 +125

Pirates/Sox ov 9

Cards Ff tt ov 1.5
Cards/Braves ov 8.5
 
2daBank said:
I was terrible capping Cortes pretty much the whole season so I wasn’t gonna mess w that game but maybe I should look closer.
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I seriously lost more in this dudes games than I did entire teams all year! I dunno if it cause when I watch him his stuff doesn’t look at unhittable it apparently is, but then the rare time I might have played his prop or on yanks he wasn’t good or didn’t fan ppl! Guy just a royal pain in my ass. I’m assuming he hides ball really well and guys can’t pick it up cause he pure stuff really isn’t that nasty. Somehow even tho he doesn’t get a lot of ground balls he still managed to not give up bombs at home. His strand rate been crazy high, im kinda in middle on that stat, to a point I agree sometimes it just luck and not sustainable but I also think it foolish not to realize good pitchers have a extra gear when they get into trouble and have the ability to make pitches when they absolutely have to, another of the many things analytics tend to dismiss.
 
2daBank said:
I seriously lost more in this dudes games than I did entire teams all year! I dunno if it cause when I watch him his stuff doesn’t look at unhittable it apparently is, but then the rare time I might have played his prop or on yanks he wasn’t good or didn’t fan ppl! Guy just a royal pain in my ass. I’m assuming he hides ball really well and guys can’t pick it up cause he pure stuff really isn’t that nasty. Somehow even tho he doesn’t get a lot of ground balls he still managed to not give up bombs at home. His strand rate been crazy high, im kinda in middle on that stat, to a point I agree sometimes it just luck and not sustainable but I also think it foolish not to realize good pitchers have a extra gear when they get into trouble and have the ability to make pitches when they absolutely have to, another of the many things analytics tend to dismiss.
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Molester should absolutely beat bum ass Walker!
 
Inspekdah said:
Why Sox today? I can get behind them
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I just like them this year, the only 2 WS futures I played were on them and twins (more bout price and chance to make playoffs than really thinking they win it all but still, I ain’t betting a team I don’t like). I thought they showed really well splitting in houston so nothing to discourage me from liking them, my biggest concern with them is lack of depth but for now they healthy. I think this by far the weakest starting pitcher they have seen up to this point after dealing with houston very good rotation and pen. Maybe I watched too much San Fran and caught them in a bad moment but Jfc they looked terrible in NY, Mfers were flailing at all kinds of pitches like a blindfolded kid swinging at a piñata! One team I think has a shot to be in playoffs, the other looks like a bottom feeder to me, -130 seemed cheap for the home opener. Oh and I love that TRL is gone, that washed up drunk not managing the team has to be worth 5-10 wins, I liked their body language way better than when he was in dugout. You could be right tho, kopech has a long way to go to complete his transition from pen where he was dominant to being a good starter which he wasn’t last year. If there ever a day for him to get that swinging strike rate back up this would be the day!
 
Inspekdah said:
Molester should absolutely beat bum ass Walker!
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I might look into some yanks hitting props. I have some stuff I gotta do, got the bets in for day games and the few I know I wanted tonight. I still gotta come back to Illinios later on so I might add some stuff.
 
Damn, Oviedo k prop getting bet down to 3.5 is tempting but the juice higher than I’d like. He def has the stuff to get 4+ k’s, in 7 starts to end the year he fanned 4+ in 5 of them. Only way I don’t see him getting 4 is if he gets ran from the game early.
 
These pricks really hung a lot stronger numbers today. 5.5 for Hunter brown? I woulda been all over 4.5 considering tigers can’t hit a beach ball but needing 6 from a kid who prob gonna be jacked up is tough, long 1st inning and no chance he pitches deep enough. He could fan 6 in 3-4 innings but tough to bet on that, another pass.
 
Unreal. Carrasco had 4 going into 4th and had miserable inning, I don’t think they gonna send him out for 5th at 85 freaking pitches. Fuck.
 
Man, he started out looking way better than peralta but now peralta settled in and gonna hit his number while this asshole gonna be yanked after 4. Fuxk me
 
Unreal, they gave him a chance and the lousy Mfer let’s 1st 2 get on, dude was pitching really well and just lost it, getting old, that sucks. 1st k prop loss this year. My bad.
 
Might have to start looking at milw offense differently, the guys the got rid of and guys they added they have actually scored a pretty decent number of runs and have only hit 1 home run all season I believe (think today was the 1st, they didn’t hit any in Chicago and still won 2 games, not sure that ever happened last year). I still think there plenty of swing and miss but the ability to move runners and get them home without bombs a big change.
 
I don’t think 3 runs gonna be enough to win the Ff, not sure why I didn’t just bet the Ff and 1st 7 team totals over? They paid better anyways
 
2daBank said:
As expected :). I just need cards to get a 2nd run before 5th. Then obviously 9 total. After cards got 1 in 1st I figured at the very least someone hit a solo Jack.
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Yeah I played Morton over 1.5. Shoulda played over but didn't trust braves to hit this guy
 
Woodford ain’t a starting quality pitcher, maybe on some garbage team he could be a 4th or 5th, not on a team that has any kind of aspirations. Like I been saying, cards pitching worries me. No clue why this bum started ahead of matz? Matz is decent if he ever healthy.
 
CPA-hole said:
Yeah I played Morton over 1.5. Shoulda played over but didn't trust braves to hit this guy
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Cards should for sure get at least 1 more. Somebody hit one out. It warm w nice little breeze. Ball carrying good which not always the case early in year here.
 
peelpub94 said:
Drew Smyly is a fucking joke and so is Ross for putting him back out there, he’s been hittable all night.
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Books saved me hanging thar redic 5.5, wish I could bring myself to play unders, I was thinking I might get a 3.5 and I’d play over, he didn’t even get that. They came way too heavy w some k props today, prob cause they got their heads busted w over the 1st series!
 
Pirates got the lead back and that gane alessy way over total. If they can just hang on thru 5th I hit all kinds of bets in that game!!
 
The only fucking guy on pirates without a hit is last one I need to hit a fat same game parlay. Somehow the Fuckinh leadoff man 0-3, lol, wtf
 
It’s crazy kutter Crawford getting shelled like he is but still hit his k prop, lol. Sox leaving him out there long as they can, last thing they want is to have to eat way back into their pen after last series!!
 
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