ML Dog Bowl Season

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Bowl Season is upon us.
We had a tremendous year w/ ML Dogs during the regular season.

Let's discuss possible ML Dogs for this Bowl Season.

Let the discussions begin...............
 
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Too early for me to weigh in on picks yet, but I will have something to post later tonight.

Until then give me ARMY +142. An average Navy team is giving the best Army team in 20 years 3.5? CIC comes to West Point - book it Danno.
 
Put this together over the last few days. Pointspreads from Phil Steele publications, with many finals being close to the spread, some w/l cover records could be different with different point spread sources.


2016:
ATS Covers: Favs 17, Dogs 23, Push 1
Spreads of 7pts + = Favs 7, Dogs 13 with 6 upsets
ML dog winners: (14 or 34%) Clemson+2.5, Clemson+6.5, Florida St+7, Oklahoma St+2.5, Baylor+7.5, San Diego St+4.5, Idaho+15, Hawaii+7, Boston College+2, Wake Forest+12, Northwestern+4.5, Minnesota+10, Georgia+3, Arkansas+5.5

2015:
ATS Covers: Favs 25, Dogs 16
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 8, Dogs 7 with 4 upsets
ML dog winners (12 - 29%): Nebraska+5.5, Houston+7, Clemson+3.5, TCU+7, West Virginia+2, Georgia Southern+7, Akron+7, Toledo+2.5, Duke+2.5, Wisconsin+3, Baylor+3.5, Nevada+3.5


2014
ATS Covers: Favs 16, Dogs 23
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 7, Dogs 4 with 2 upsets
ML dog winners (20 - 51%): Ohio State+8.5, Ohio State+6, Boise+3, Georgia Tech+6, Wisconsin+6, Michigan St+2.5, Houston+3.5, Notre Dame+8, Oklahoma St+6, ULL+1.5, Air Force+2.5, South Carolina+3.5, Bowling Green+2.5, Navy+3, Rutgers+3.5, NC State+2.5, Virginia Tech+2.5, Penn State+3, Texas A&M+2, Clemson+5


2013
ATS Covers: Favs 16, Dogs 18, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 5, Dogs 9 with 5 upsets
ML dog winners (13 - 37%): UCF +16.5, Clemson+2.5, Missouri+1.5, South Carolina+1.5, Michigan St+6.5, Oklahoma+15, Nebraska+8, Arkansas St+7, ULL+1.5, Colorado St+5.5, Pitt+6.5, Texas Tech+14, Syracuse+4.5


2012
ATS Covers: Favs 17, Dogs 15, Push 2, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 11, Dogs 6 with 4 upsets
ML dog winners (12 - 34%): Clemson+6, Louisville+14, Rice+1.5, Northwestern+1, Texas+3.5-, Michigan St+2, Ohio+7, SMU+13, Central Michigan+6, Georgia Tech+7.5, Syracuse+4.5, Baylor+3


2011
Covers: Favs 19, Dogs 14, Push 1, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 7, Dogs 2 with 0 upsets
ML dog winners (9 - 26%): West Virginia+3, Michigan St+3, SMU+3.5, Northern ILL+1.5, ULL+4, Ohio+2, Marshall+4.5, Utah+2, Rutgers+1


2010
ATS Covers: Favs 18, Dogs 15, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 6, Dogs 5 with 3 upsets
ML dog winners (12 - 35%): USF+5.5, Florida St+3, Army+7, Iowa+2.5, Miami Oh+2, Tulsa+10.5, FIU+1.5, Notre Dame+2.5, Washington+14, UCF+6.5, NC State+3, Illinois+1


2009
ATS Covers: Favs 12, Dogs 18, Push 1, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 3, Dogs 6 with 3 upsets
ML dog winners (15 - 47%): Boise St+7.5, Iowa+6, Penn St+1, Ohio St+4, Air Force+4.5, Florida+3, Iowa St+2, UConn+3.5, MTSU+3.5, Wyoming+10.5, BYU+2.5, SMU+12, Marshall+3, Wisconsin+3.5, Navy+6.5


2008
ATS Covers: Favs 15, Dogs 17
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 4, Dogs 5 with 2 upsets
ML dog winners (12 – 38%): LSU+4.5, Virginia Tech+2, Ole Miss+4, Utah+9.5, Vanderbilt+3.5, Nebraska+2, Southern Miss+4.5, Colorado St+2.5, Maryland+2.5, FAU+7, Oregon+1, Kentucky+3


2007
ATS Covers: Favs 16, Dogs 14
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 2, Dogs 6 with 4 upsets
ML dog winners (10 – 33%): Auburn+2, West Virginia+7.5, Kansas+3, Michigan+11, BYU+6.5, Fresno+6, ECU+10.5, Purdue+7.5, Oregon+6, Mississippi St+3


2006
ATS Covers: Favs 13, Dogs 17
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 5, Dogs 7 with 3 upsets
ML dog winners (11 – 36%): Florida St+3.5, Georgia+3, Boise St+7, Penn St+4.5, Wisconsin+2.5, USC+1, Kentucky+10.5, Florida+7.5, Troy+5, San Jose+3.5, Maryland+1


2005
ATS Covers: Favs 8, Dogs 17, Push 1, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 1, Dogs 11 with 6 upsets
ML dog winners (11 – 41%): Utah+9, LSU+7, Alabama+3.5, Wisconsin+10, Texas+7, West Virginia+6, Virginia+6.5, Nebraska+10, Missouri+4, Oklahoma+3, Tulsa+7


2004
ATS Covers: Favs 12, Dogs 15
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 3, Dogs 5 with 3 upsets
ML dog winners (12 – 44%): Boston College+1, Navy+3, Tennessee+4.5, Iowa+6.5, Minnesota+1, Ohio State+3.5, Wyoming+12.5, Fresno St+5, Iowa St+1, UConn+3.5, Arizona St+8, Texas Tech+11


2003
ATS Covers: Favs 16, Dogs 10, Even 1
Spreads of 7 pts + = Favs 5, Dogs 6 with 3 upsets
ML dog winners (6 – 22%): Clemson+4.5, Ohio State+7, Iowa+3.5, LSU+7, Cal+3, Washington St+9.5
 
Great stuff s--k. So roughly ML dogs hit at an avg rate of about 35% a year over that 14year span you posted. Again great work man.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Great stuff s--k. So roughly ML dogs hit at an avg rate of about 35% a year over that 14year span you posted. Again great work man.
Click to expand...

Cool, you are welcome.

I didn't do all the math on the different things. But you can see some of the ML dog winners are pretty small lines 1-2.5 which are pretty much even games in my mind, but still upsets technically. And then you can see how the larger dogs have done getting a TD or more and you can see the ratio dog cover : dog SU winner. There are fewer dogs of TD or greater this year compared to the last several. I'm sure JRock will have some cool data for here or the SQL thread or whatever that thing is called!
 
2017 Bowl Dogs, regular ssn and conf title game ATS and ML performance

Akron – 4-4 ATS – 2 upsets

Appalachian State – 1-1 ATS – 0 upsets

Arizona State – 5-2-1 ATS – 4 upsets

Boise State – 2-0 ATS – 1 upset

Boston College – 6-1 ATS – 3 upsets

Central Michigan – 5-3 ATS – 5 upsets

Clemson - N/A

Florida International – 6-3 ATS – 6 upsets

Fresno State – 5-0 ATS – 2 upsets

Georgia State – 2-3 ATS – 2 upsets

Iowa State – 4-3-1 ATS – 2 upsets

Kentucky – 3-3 ATS – 2 upsets

Louisiana Tech – 2-2 ATS – 1 upset

Marshall – 5-0 ATS – 2 upsets

Miami – 1-1 ATS – 1 upset

Michigan State – 2-1 ATS – 2 upsets

Middle Tennessee State – 1-4 ATS – 1 upset

Mississippi State – 2-2 ATS – 1 upset

New Mexico State – 3-3 ATS – 1 upset

North Texas – 4-3 ATS – 3 upsets

Northern Illinois – 3-1 ATS – 1 upset

Notre Dame – NA

Oklahoma – 2-0 ATS – 2 upsets

Purdue – 4-2 ATS – 2 upsets

South Carolina - 6-1 ATS – 4 upsets

Southern Mississippi -4-1 ATS – 3 upsets

Stanford – 3-2 ATS – 2 upsets

Texas – 4-1 ATS – 1 upset

Texas A&M – 3-2-1 ATS – 1 upset

Texas Tech – 3-4 ATS – 2 upsets

UAB – 6-2 ATS – 5 upsets

UCF – 1-0 ATS - 1 upset

UCLA – 1-3 ATS – 0 upsets

USC – 0-1 ATS – 0 upsets

Virginia Tech – 0-2 ATS – 0 upsets

Washington - N/A

West Virginia – 2-3 ATS – 1 upset

Wyoming – 5-3 ATS – 4 upsets
 
Thanks for all the above s-k and all your other contributions throughout this season.
Have been busy plus went cold last 4 weeks of season so been laying low but hope to get hot with bowls.
Some pretty big line movements from open to current line, some in the 4-7 point moves like Missouri, SDSU, OK State
 
yeah I saw some numbers online Sunday and saw some really good numbers CK was getting in his thread. I'm not sure what official open would be for some of these games. I know that topic has been discussed before, how available certain numbers were for a limited time before they settled into a more familiar and current setting from Monday on. I see different sites show different opens so I don't know.
 
Bowls should be great for dogs? Since bowls draw so much public action. I think Oregon may be a false big-time fave due to Taggart leaving
 
I know it's not a bowl. But I will be on Army ML today. Let's see if we can hit the last one of he season!

Army ML +120

I will be playing +3 and Under today.
 
s--k said:
Too early for me to weigh in on picks yet, but I will have something to post later tonight.

Until then give me ARMY +142. An average Navy team is giving the best Army team in 20 years 3.5? CIC comes to West Point - book it Danno.
Click to expand...

I'd happier than could be if I just ended the football season with that Army-Navy game!!

I'm distracted and busy. During the season I think all week about the upcoming games. Now the upcoming games are an after thought. Always happens to me some extent this time of year. I'll be in and out, trying to stay engaged and hope I just don't roll out of bed Saturday morning and throw some darts against the wall.
 
OK here are some random shallow thoughts I have that might get me going one way or the other:

North Texas +218
I come at this game from the perspective that Troy isn't unbeatable and doesn't always bring their best. I would probably put North Texas in the category of NMSU, Akron, Idaho and Arkansas St which were some of the better teams that Troy played and beat although they were all tight. Thought Troy underperformed the first half vs Ark St and they were fortunate Ark St didn't capitalize and lead by more in that one. NT O should be capable of doing work here. The OL is an issue with pass protection, but if Fine has time the O can operate like it did in the second half vs FAU. I mean Troy could win by more than 7, but certainly within the realm of realistic possibilities that NT wins this by more than 7 as well.

Georgia State +204
I likely would not play this ML, but I do not think that Sanford Jr is a good head coach, atleast yet. The 3 game bowl streak that WKU has was under Brohm and we've seen how badly WKU has missed that coaching staff this season. Ga State probably doesn't have the capabilities on D to limit the Toppers if White is clicking, but Ga State O should be able to hang maybe.

Marshall +197
My head says Colorado State, but my gut says Marshall so not sure where that leaves me. I'm not trusting a Colorado State defense to do much, but I do respect the CSU O when they are hot - although they are erratic. Herd likely has a coaching edge as well. Marshall will bring some D, but they also bring some inconsistent and questionable O as well. Assuming CSU D doesn't offer much resistance Marshall O could find some success and assuming Marshall can play some D they may be able to get Stephens out of rhythm. Ram running game is going to be tough to stop though.

MTSU +150
I think Arkansas St could be hanging their head some after losing the Sun Belt Title at home to Troy and the reward they get is to play a bowl in Montgomery. MTSU on the other hand won their last game 41-10 over ODU to get to 6-6, but on 'selection Sunday' thought they would be shutout only to find out after having said their goodbyes they made it! So that is that angle. Wondering if Rolland-Jones is going to sit out, or if he plays will he be high motor to impress or half speed to protect? A mini fall camp with Stockstill and the Raiders should lead to improved production out of their O. Nobody on MTSU has won a bowl (lost 4 straight).

FIU +235
First bowl since 2011 for FIU in Butch Davis' first year. Temple has lost 2 straight, but has a new staff. Seemed like some of the FIU kids from the Tampa/St Pete area were looking forward to playing near their hometowns. Temple has played good against some of the service academies and lesser teams, but haven't looked the best vs teams with a pulse. FIU should present some resistance on D and they bring alot of experience to the table on O. FIU atleast thinks they are good and have 6 upset wins to show for it. Seems like it should be competitive game.

UAB +260
Have a good enough QB, good RB and WRs and atleast an average midmajor D, not sure why they aren't on par with the likes of upper MAC teams that Ohio is 1-3 SU vs bowl eligible MAC teams and UAB has been an upset machine this year (5 upsets). Ohio has lost 3 straight bowls, so even with the MAC season disappointment behind them, Bobcats should want this one just as bad as Blazers, so I'd call motivation even.

That is about as far as I can get at the moment. Clearly I'm not close to being able to pull the trigger on an actual bet.
 
UNT gave up something like 9 sacks or something crazy like that against FAU. I know this is going to sound crazy but their pass protect wasn't that bad. Fine was either holding it way too long or the receivers were blanketed (camera angle I cannot tell) but he wasn't being immediately pressured or anything. I think their O is missing Wilson in a big way.
 
You are probably right about Wilson. So I wonder will they be able to better plan around him, without him during bowl prep or is it just too much of an absence for them to operate without? They couldn't run the ball much vs FAU, but FAU D might be pretty good. Probably about as good as Troy I guess. Something definitely changed for Fine in the second half. Some of the time looked like FAU wasn't bringing much pressure, but then I couldn't remember if they were blitzing in the first half and laid back in the second, but Fine definitely looked more like one would expect in the second half.
 
Looked like the whole FAU team was flat the second half when compared to the first. No need to be aggressive up that big so the short to intermediate stuff started working more. I think they worked in some backups too. My problem is more with the 383 yards against rice the week before coupled with last weeks performance, and those being the no-Wilson games. Troy defense is likely superior to FAU, or were for most of the year. FAU came into their own some.

Incidentally, how many years before the FAU investigation? Because if I was lining whether they are cheating in a major way, the "Yes" is a favorite.
 
ksimpsc said:
Cheating in what regard?
Click to expand...

The influx of talent, through transfer, is not to be ignored. Particularly when the head coach is a guy who comes from a background of being at a program that blatantly cheated, and got caught. But maybe this year players suddenly just wanted to play at FAU because a Kiffin was at HC, a Kiffin was at DC and a Briles was at OC. Hmmmm Kiffin, Kiffin, Briles ... when I hear that, I think character and loyalty. Err no I don't. This one isn't a mystery, it's just a matter of if they get caught or not.
 
like s-k having a hard time getting into bowl season so far for reasons he mentioned about the gap of several weeks to starting
I scroll through the games and do not see much that stands out to me and the longer Vegas has to crunch numbers the tighter lines get
Have had more games and totals and props winning or losing by half points than I remember from years past
 
Just went through 2 days since I posted last and didn't think about trying to determine bowl game winners once until I logged on here thinking "I need to look at these games". Part of the problem is it seems like I have so much time, all the games still seems a ways off even though the first batch is only 4 days away, so easy to put it off ,but they will be here soon and I will want to watch them so need to pick some sides to wager on. I have a big family Christmas Party Saturday so that hurts even more since I can't just sit around and watch the games all day.

I'm confident at some point the light will go on, might be after Saturday though. I suppose Marshall and Middle Tenn are my favorite two dogs the first day, but probably won't ML either as I ease into things.
 
Nice start on the 1st Day :
Ga St +185
Boise St +230
Marshall +143
MTSU +155

James Madison +108
 
Yeah 4 upsets in 5 games. I didn't ML any, but was on 3 of the 4 ATS.

I'm really happy where my holiday schedule is right now, I should have alot more time to enjoy things from here out compared to the last 2 weeks and hope to spend time here until the end of the season.
 
Can't talk myself into anything on an Akron ML. It has reached +1221.

I was really surprised by what Akron was trying to do vs Toledo in the MAC Title. Nelson only QB'd 2-1/2 possessions then Woodson played the rest of the first half. Nelson only ran twice when he was on the field! It was like the coaches were doing what coaches sometimes do, outsmart themselves and try to get an athletic QB to do what he isn't exactly good at, don't scramble and throw. He started the 3rd qrt, but ran only once on three 3rd qrt possessions! Sure they were behind big, but he has ability to get chunk yards with his legs as much as he does with his arm. If Akron coaches are going to try and make him beat FAU, or any team, with his arm exclusively rather than the threat of his legs that is a bad recipe. They need to create a running threat since the current RB position doesn't possess that ability. So Woodson is in the mix again at QB, who knows what their QB plan will be. Woodson is the better thrower, but Akron's O isn't great in the passing game anyway.

It will be interesting to see how they handle it tonight. Akron's O is too limited to try and win a shoot-out. So Zips D will be the critical component of the game and Akron D isn't garbage and FAU O isn't always unstoppable.

There was a stretch that LaTech and Marshall outgained FAU, and Owls only outgained WKU by 9 yards. FAU may've been fortunate to beat WKU and the win vs LT was misleading. So despite FAU having an air of invincibility about them I don't think that is the case, but Akron wouldn't appear to be the right team to call for the upset with. Zips lack the offensive competency and consistency to win and the D might be able to offer some resistance, but they aren't good enough to do it on their own.

I may take a small shot on first half +14 and +24 for the game and see what the second half presents.

Dogs of 14+ pts 10-13 ATS with 6 upsets
2016 2-2 with 1 upset
2015 = 1-0
2014 = 0-1
2013 = 4-2 with 3 upsets
2012 = 1-2 with 1 upset
2011 = 0-1
2010 = 1-2 with 1 upset
2009 = na
2008 = na
2007 = 0-1
2006 = na
2005 = 1-0
2004 = 0-1
2003 = 0-1
 
I bet a little on Akron and the ML. You just never know in these bowl games and I think there is a decent chance that FAU has no motivation playing a team like Akron.
 
agree with s-k that first half points worth a shot and reevaluate at half
will play 1st half +14 and small 1st half ML on Akron
 
I have a hard time believing FAU won't be motivated. They are the one team that wants to stay at home for the bowl game me thinks.
 
FAU says the right things, they all do. They feel like they still aren't getting respect, have something to prove. Staying home for the bowl takes away part of the reward and uniqueness of the travel experience. There was no hiding the early disappointment when it was announced. If they play to their potential that shouldn't matter, they have lots of talent, good schemes and good coaches.

Akron is limited and challenged, no way to spin it too positive. They are, on the other hand, very excited to be there. 29 players from FL on their roster and many of those are from South Florida. Recruiting disadvantage for Akron during bowl prep? Maybe not if they are targeting alot of kids on this trip it could have played right into the staff's hands in terms of spending time on recruiting visits. So players happy to be there, coaches happy to be there as well I'd believe.

I think back to some of the big bowl upsets. For instance, Idaho last year vs CSU, Idaho was better than this Akron team. All the big dogs had something to like about them. I just wish Akron had something to hang my hat on, a good experienced QB, some good D, a really good special teams...they just lack that something for me to ML them. It could happen, but the chances are small. North Texas had a much better chance at beating FAU. Atleast NT had an O that could keep them in the game. But even there, we saw the challenges NT faced. Akron is going to need to have one hell of a gameplan and Kato will need to have the game of his life...he is from south florida for what that is worth. Kiffin tweating the Finebaum show from the field leading up to the game, hopefully maybe they have been busy focusing on their own recruiting and take the Zips lightly - it's about the only chance I could see.
 
For a small school that predominately recruits the local area, I would assume this works well. Lower income families can watch their kids play. Old HS Coaches...etc.
 
Anybody like LaTech? Think I prefer SMU tonight. A good case could be made for either.
 
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