ML Dog Bowl Season
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
KingKrunked
Resident Bad Ass
Only down a TD and are +450 2h. This is painful
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Grabbed UAB ML +220 and points
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I had a nice cushion built from Army-first bowl Saturday+NFL and have pissed it all away the last three games. Two small bets on Akron isn't a big deal, but SMU and FIU were not small.
These teams are giving their worst showing, worst performance and worst effort of their season and I am betting on them to bring their best - some random weirdness and injuries doesn't help one bit. Discouraging. I like both dogs today, we'll see what happens.
These teams are giving their worst showing, worst performance and worst effort of their season and I am betting on them to bring their best - some random weirdness and injuries doesn't help one bit. Discouraging. I like both dogs today, we'll see what happens.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Deciding who is the no-show seems the way to figure out who wins. I had Oregon as one of the most movtivated teams of bowl season and flat as a pancake. How to figure out who will be motivated seems like a game that can only be won in hindsight or by watching the line move.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
We are going to see a lot of young players hitting the field. I’ll be taking the points too. Can’t ML it, as I still think our young’ens are still uber talented. Haggins, the interim, is retaining his job. So, there is that. I think we will see points, as the stars on defense are all no shows (James, Thomas, and Sweat). Gameplan should be simple. Run the freaking ball. Still no word on McFadden. He has practiced, but I think he is waiting on his draft grade to decide. For now he is listed as the #1 on the game roster.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
App St 50 to win 98
Last 5 bowl blowouts and losing bets has taken some wind out of my sails. I was drinking and honestly fell asleep before halftime of the FIU game, I just know that QB McGough was lost for the game on the opening series so that sucks. FIU was my favorite play of this week and it turned out badly. Looking forward this is one of my next favorite plays.
Rather than forcing some decisions on games I'm iffy on like TT-USF and Army-SDSt I will probably just play one game today, App St...atleast for meaningful money ATS and ML.
Funny thing is I haven't liked App St the entire year. I've been down on them and bad mouthed them throughout the year. I did advocate a ML play on them vs WF and they played well, but came up a missed FG short in the 1 pt loss. But most of the year I saw a team that was not playing to their potential. Maybe it was getting beaten so badly in the opener vs Georgia that got their season off to a bad start or maybe it was the lack of challenging games to inspire their effort...the schedule was an absolute joke and to me they played like they could just roll the helmet out there and it would be good enough for the win...and in a couple they were upset because of it.
So they haven't looked the part this year, but that doesn't mean the potential for strong play doesn't exist, it does. And in some of these bowl games we've seen teams show up that in no way resembled their regular season selves.
They are still led by dual threat Sr QB Taylor Lamb. Still have an outstanding RB Jalin Moore when healthy (he is now). The WR unit took a dip this year with the personnel losses, but Ike Lewis stepped up as a 1st Tm All Sun Belt and a pair of Frosh WRs emerged. The top 5 receivers actually combined for 33 more receptions than last year's more experienced top 5 group, although had they 100 less yards combined among them. Watch out for TE Colin Reed who only has 8 catches on the season, but 5 of those went for TDs. The normally strong App St OL again didn't disappoint with 3 1st Tm All Sun Belt players (first time in league history for 3 OL from same team to be 1st team). #2 ncaa fewest sacks allowed - 8! The running game was down a notch, last year they had two 1000+y rushers plus Lamb's 600y. Lamb was close to the same, but Cox departed and Moore wasn't 100% for some of this year so his numbers were about 500y off of 2016, yet he still led the Sun Belt is rushing ypg. Their #2 rusher was out for the year halfway through so a couple frosh picked up the slack. But Moore is the bellcow.
Simply put, this is a quality offense that should be able to hold their own.
The App St D is led by the back 7. LBs Boggs and Stringer are as good of midmajor LBs as you'll find. Stringer missed some games or else he would've joined Boggs with All Conf honors. Soph CB Clifton Duck had another outstanding season and the opposite CB saw Tae Hayes emerge as a high quality corner. They have the players to matchup with Toledo's O. One problem, All Star DE Tee Sims is out, and he is a big loss - he's led the team in sacks two straight years and no other DL is close so App St may have to look for some pressure out of their LBs which they are well equipped to do. The results of this season would not point to a competent D being able to slow down the Toledo O, and while I'm concerned about the loss of Sims, I do think that talent and personnel wise App St is in good hands, again I attribute some of the struggles this season to a lack of interest and I'm hoping that isn't the case for the bowl game. Toledo should move the ball as a good O unit they are, but I can't imagine them just having their way with this D despite what some of the results from this season have shown for App.
There is good football in the MAC, I'm a MAC fan. The top of the MAC can challenge alot of P5 teams. But there are the bottom feeders in that league and that is what boosts some of Toledo's gaudy numbers. 45 and 48 pts on Akron in both meetings, 66 vs BGSU, 58 vs Ball St. When they play some of the better Ds in the MAC they have only scored 20 on EMich, 27 on NIU, 10 on Ohio (probably a fluke) and they did score 37 on WM in the reg ssn finale, but Broncos were kind of reeling at the end of the year. What I'm saying is that Toledo is good, the O is good, but they benefit from playing alot of bad Ds. App St won't be a bad D. The Toledo D can be often overlooked as a quality part of their team, they are solid; they allow 25 ppg, which is good, but here again, some of the struggling Os in the MAC boost their numbers. To this point not a single Toledo player was named 1st Tm MAC and only DL Adeniyi made second team (no 3rd teamers either). I think App St arguably is the best D in the Sun Belt, where as Toledo may be the 4th or 5th best D in the MAC. Note that running QBs have caused Toledo some problems, last year Lamb ran for career high 126 in the bowl vs Toledo. This year Ohio's O'Rourke 115 and Tulsa's President ran for 130.
Something I absolutely hate about the App St play is the fact that this is a bowl rematch from 2016 and App St won that game. App St has won both their bowl games and extending it to 3-0 and going out the right way for a senior laden team is going to be important for them. BUT, the fact that Toledo has a chance to avenge their bowl loss to App St from last year really does give me some pause - little things like that can matter to players.
Taking everything equally, I see more that I like in App St. With that said, I have lost my last 12 bowl plays including 2nd half bets this week, yup 0-12 sides, totals and half plays, so I'm not somebody with a crystal ball.
Last 5 bowl blowouts and losing bets has taken some wind out of my sails. I was drinking and honestly fell asleep before halftime of the FIU game, I just know that QB McGough was lost for the game on the opening series so that sucks. FIU was my favorite play of this week and it turned out badly. Looking forward this is one of my next favorite plays.
Rather than forcing some decisions on games I'm iffy on like TT-USF and Army-SDSt I will probably just play one game today, App St...atleast for meaningful money ATS and ML.
Funny thing is I haven't liked App St the entire year. I've been down on them and bad mouthed them throughout the year. I did advocate a ML play on them vs WF and they played well, but came up a missed FG short in the 1 pt loss. But most of the year I saw a team that was not playing to their potential. Maybe it was getting beaten so badly in the opener vs Georgia that got their season off to a bad start or maybe it was the lack of challenging games to inspire their effort...the schedule was an absolute joke and to me they played like they could just roll the helmet out there and it would be good enough for the win...and in a couple they were upset because of it.
So they haven't looked the part this year, but that doesn't mean the potential for strong play doesn't exist, it does. And in some of these bowl games we've seen teams show up that in no way resembled their regular season selves.
They are still led by dual threat Sr QB Taylor Lamb. Still have an outstanding RB Jalin Moore when healthy (he is now). The WR unit took a dip this year with the personnel losses, but Ike Lewis stepped up as a 1st Tm All Sun Belt and a pair of Frosh WRs emerged. The top 5 receivers actually combined for 33 more receptions than last year's more experienced top 5 group, although had they 100 less yards combined among them. Watch out for TE Colin Reed who only has 8 catches on the season, but 5 of those went for TDs. The normally strong App St OL again didn't disappoint with 3 1st Tm All Sun Belt players (first time in league history for 3 OL from same team to be 1st team). #2 ncaa fewest sacks allowed - 8! The running game was down a notch, last year they had two 1000+y rushers plus Lamb's 600y. Lamb was close to the same, but Cox departed and Moore wasn't 100% for some of this year so his numbers were about 500y off of 2016, yet he still led the Sun Belt is rushing ypg. Their #2 rusher was out for the year halfway through so a couple frosh picked up the slack. But Moore is the bellcow.
Simply put, this is a quality offense that should be able to hold their own.
The App St D is led by the back 7. LBs Boggs and Stringer are as good of midmajor LBs as you'll find. Stringer missed some games or else he would've joined Boggs with All Conf honors. Soph CB Clifton Duck had another outstanding season and the opposite CB saw Tae Hayes emerge as a high quality corner. They have the players to matchup with Toledo's O. One problem, All Star DE Tee Sims is out, and he is a big loss - he's led the team in sacks two straight years and no other DL is close so App St may have to look for some pressure out of their LBs which they are well equipped to do. The results of this season would not point to a competent D being able to slow down the Toledo O, and while I'm concerned about the loss of Sims, I do think that talent and personnel wise App St is in good hands, again I attribute some of the struggles this season to a lack of interest and I'm hoping that isn't the case for the bowl game. Toledo should move the ball as a good O unit they are, but I can't imagine them just having their way with this D despite what some of the results from this season have shown for App.
There is good football in the MAC, I'm a MAC fan. The top of the MAC can challenge alot of P5 teams. But there are the bottom feeders in that league and that is what boosts some of Toledo's gaudy numbers. 45 and 48 pts on Akron in both meetings, 66 vs BGSU, 58 vs Ball St. When they play some of the better Ds in the MAC they have only scored 20 on EMich, 27 on NIU, 10 on Ohio (probably a fluke) and they did score 37 on WM in the reg ssn finale, but Broncos were kind of reeling at the end of the year. What I'm saying is that Toledo is good, the O is good, but they benefit from playing alot of bad Ds. App St won't be a bad D. The Toledo D can be often overlooked as a quality part of their team, they are solid; they allow 25 ppg, which is good, but here again, some of the struggling Os in the MAC boost their numbers. To this point not a single Toledo player was named 1st Tm MAC and only DL Adeniyi made second team (no 3rd teamers either). I think App St arguably is the best D in the Sun Belt, where as Toledo may be the 4th or 5th best D in the MAC. Note that running QBs have caused Toledo some problems, last year Lamb ran for career high 126 in the bowl vs Toledo. This year Ohio's O'Rourke 115 and Tulsa's President ran for 130.
Something I absolutely hate about the App St play is the fact that this is a bowl rematch from 2016 and App St won that game. App St has won both their bowl games and extending it to 3-0 and going out the right way for a senior laden team is going to be important for them. BUT, the fact that Toledo has a chance to avenge their bowl loss to App St from last year really does give me some pause - little things like that can matter to players.
Taking everything equally, I see more that I like in App St. With that said, I have lost my last 12 bowl plays including 2nd half bets this week, yup 0-12 sides, totals and half plays, so I'm not somebody with a crystal ball.
Texas tech
For reasons others have said:
contrariab play in fading usf. 110th hardest schedule, tt pumped to be here based on how they beat texas but usf was at this same bowl last year which is super disappointing
For reasons others have said:
contrariab play in fading usf. 110th hardest schedule, tt pumped to be here based on how they beat texas but usf was at this same bowl last year which is super disappointing
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Since they expanded the Bowls to 40 games, it's become common for these early games to be unbearable to watch. I often ask myself if I need my head examined to be spending time on them
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I've been trying to convince myself on So Miss ML....seems I'm just trying to be too smart. Any thoughts?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Would work if they could centralize the locations. The bigger schools have fan bases all over the map that the smaller ones don't so for it to make sense for fans to be able to travel, at least the first games would have to be regional (i.e. driving distance for both teams) because getting fan bases to travel, which the bowls need, twice...isn't going to be feasible.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Wow just saw So Miss is down to 12.5...glad I locked in at 15 yesterday. Mob steam lol +415 on 5D, +350 on Bovada for ML
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I've had very little conviction on most of the bowl picks so far this year. Last night I thought a month off, some of these teams not always playing in the bowl true to their regular season's results and Kansas St's lack of dominance vs P5 foes...it was worth a small shot at 2:1. I'm almost always trying to find reasons to back the dog. The QB change and focusing on the running game from the QB position for KSt was big when they went to Delton and it revealed UCLA's true colors on D.
Tonight I am going 50 to win 72 on Texas.
I think this is perhaps a program defining moment for Texas. The last bowl Horns were in 2014 was the Texas bowl, and they were humiliated by an SEC school. Now they return to the same bowl, again vs an SEC school. Texas sits at 6-6, this after Charlie Strong's 3 straight 7 loss seasons. I just think it is a very big moment for Texas. There are concerns, obviously there are reasons they are .500. A lack of conventional running game. The D will be without Elliot and Hill in the secondary, and I think LB Jefferson has also been ruled out due to injury. Not playing with a full hand, but in Todd Orlando I trust. Mizzou going to toss it around and run it with their underrated running game. However, I wonder, in 3 of their final 4 games they faced lame duck head coaches or interim head coaches...and also faced Vandy. I guess it always has to be this way...people doubting Mizzou, but I do doubt their D and am hoping for some anticipated and reasonably expected growth from the young UT O to do some damage. Again, the big motivation for me is what I expect to be Herman's motivation to not come in year 1 and have a losing record, not lose the same bowl that Charlie lost and I am betting that that will, drive and want-to filters down to the Texas players and they show up with a chip on their shoulder. I'm considering putting Texas in my capping contest pick, which I try to reserve for my favorite plays (4-2), games I actually do have some kind of confidence in. I like the situation, I do wish I liked the on-the-field matchup as much though.
Tonight I am going 50 to win 72 on Texas.
I think this is perhaps a program defining moment for Texas. The last bowl Horns were in 2014 was the Texas bowl, and they were humiliated by an SEC school. Now they return to the same bowl, again vs an SEC school. Texas sits at 6-6, this after Charlie Strong's 3 straight 7 loss seasons. I just think it is a very big moment for Texas. There are concerns, obviously there are reasons they are .500. A lack of conventional running game. The D will be without Elliot and Hill in the secondary, and I think LB Jefferson has also been ruled out due to injury. Not playing with a full hand, but in Todd Orlando I trust. Mizzou going to toss it around and run it with their underrated running game. However, I wonder, in 3 of their final 4 games they faced lame duck head coaches or interim head coaches...and also faced Vandy. I guess it always has to be this way...people doubting Mizzou, but I do doubt their D and am hoping for some anticipated and reasonably expected growth from the young UT O to do some damage. Again, the big motivation for me is what I expect to be Herman's motivation to not come in year 1 and have a losing record, not lose the same bowl that Charlie lost and I am betting that that will, drive and want-to filters down to the Texas players and they show up with a chip on their shoulder. I'm considering putting Texas in my capping contest pick, which I try to reserve for my favorite plays (4-2), games I actually do have some kind of confidence in. I like the situation, I do wish I liked the on-the-field matchup as much though.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
A&M and NMSU for me, please!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I want to post some thoughts this morning yet. Az St hit 7/215, UK 9.5/278 - which to me is probably the most ridiculous line of the entire bowl season and it just keeps getting more and more ridiculous in my eyes, Utah St 4.5/166 and USC 8/245. Somebodies out there loves them some chalk today!
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Yes the chalk is getting fed but if you look at the bowl season so far, makes sense. Chalk has been winning a lot of the games and I think the TCU game last night was the first game of the Bowl Season where the line actually mattered.
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
I agree though, if this Kentucky line grows any more I am probably going to have to jump on them. I am higher on them than most for some reason but I just do not see a reason why NW should be favored by this much. i know Kentucky D is not the best and faced some bad O's but they also beat those teams with the bad O's for the most part.
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Same I was on the -3 game and was going to jump in at half on more TCU but decided to let it ride. That missed XP ended up being a killer.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
This is going to be a big day for me. This will make or break the bowls today. I'll either be dancing tonight or happy to look towards other interests and pastimes.
For disclosure my overall bowl record of sides, totals, halves, props, MLs is 18W - 26L, +1369 - 1775 = -406. Related to this specific thread I'm 2-2 on MLs +99.
Alright...
Kentucky - currently +306
UK started the season strong at 5-1 before their bye, 2-4 ATS, but both covers were as dogs and all losses were as favs and in that stretch they went 3-0 SU vs bowl teams. O avg 27.5, D avg 21.3. QB Johnson was 64%, 1238y and a 9-2 ratio.
In the second half of the season, UK struggled. They were out classed off their bye at Miss St, and Cats struggled vs good teams and bad finishing 2-4, 1-5 ATS (1-3 as a dog) and lost all 3 vs bowl teams. O avg 24m D avg 36. QB Johnson was 57%, 810y and a 1-2 ratio. While the passing game struggled, UK leaned more on their run game as they avg about 60y more per game than their first 6 games, with Johnson's rushing numbers increased as well. Snell had 777 in the final 5 games.
So really I see a UK O that isn't going to blow anyone away, but when things are working right, Johnson can be a competent passer and the running game has ability to produce as well.
Unfortunately, one of UK's best and most often used receiving threat, TE CJ Conrad is out for the bowl (leader in TD, 2nd in yards despite only playing or catching a pass in 6 games).
The UK D isn't great, and sometimes they haven't been good. Some of the stats and results are skewed by facing Louisville, Georgia, Miss St, plus Ole Miss was in a stretch of avg 42 ppg in the 3 games prior and the 1 game after playing UK. But the UK D also allowed a struggling Tennessee team 445y (Vol's season high). But this is not to say they lack playmakers on that side of the ball. LB Josh Allen has made a huge splash this season, garnering alot of NFL attention - his 40 QB pressures are 3rd in the SEC for edge rushers according to PFF. LB Jordan Jones was 2nd team SEC 2016, but missed 4 games this season. S Mike Edwards has also consistently graded high according to PFF is the leading tackler and also speculated to be a high draft pick should he declare for the NFL following this game. Jr CBs Westry and Baity are big and have been starting since they were frosh.
Contrary to UK, NW started off slow, just 2-3 in their first 5, but did have to play 3 bowl teams, 2 on the road (lost all 3). In their first 5 games NW O avg 25.6, D avg 26.4. As the schedule softened up, it's no surprise NW's numbers improved to 32.5 O ppg and just 15 ppg D allowed. NW did go 3-0 vs bowl teams in their current 7 game win streak, but also faced some very poor offenses, 6 out of the 7 Os faced in that span rank 87th or worse. As a result, NW's D numbers are good and they have some quality players in the front 7, but despite facing some poor offensive teams, NW still ranked dead last in the Big Ten in ypg allowed through the air.
NW's O has great experience at QB and RB and although still down from 2016, the receiving unit picked it up after a rough open to the season. Pass protection was a major issue for NW in their first 5 games, but either they improved over the final 7, or the quality of opposition had something to do with it, or NW schemed their protections and hot routes better to beat pressure. This will be an interesting area to see if UK can exploit some potential weakness NW showed earlier in their OL protections.
Northwestern has never once been favored in a bowl game dating back to their 1995 team, 12 bowl games in that span, dogged in all 12, now this spread is flirting with 10? So is this one of the best NW teams of all time, or is this one of the weaker UK bowl teams? Really, neither I don't think. I think these teams are pretty even actually. NW was on the right side of the coin flip vs Iowa, MSU and Nebraska...3 straight wins in OT. NW was outgained in their 10 pt win over Purdue.
I'll admit, my mouth started drooling when I saw this line open at 7 2 weeks ago, now it is being bet up to 9.5 or 10 and 3:1 ML odds! I will enthusiastically be betting this game today!
For disclosure my overall bowl record of sides, totals, halves, props, MLs is 18W - 26L, +1369 - 1775 = -406. Related to this specific thread I'm 2-2 on MLs +99.
Alright...
Kentucky - currently +306
UK started the season strong at 5-1 before their bye, 2-4 ATS, but both covers were as dogs and all losses were as favs and in that stretch they went 3-0 SU vs bowl teams. O avg 27.5, D avg 21.3. QB Johnson was 64%, 1238y and a 9-2 ratio.
In the second half of the season, UK struggled. They were out classed off their bye at Miss St, and Cats struggled vs good teams and bad finishing 2-4, 1-5 ATS (1-3 as a dog) and lost all 3 vs bowl teams. O avg 24m D avg 36. QB Johnson was 57%, 810y and a 1-2 ratio. While the passing game struggled, UK leaned more on their run game as they avg about 60y more per game than their first 6 games, with Johnson's rushing numbers increased as well. Snell had 777 in the final 5 games.
So really I see a UK O that isn't going to blow anyone away, but when things are working right, Johnson can be a competent passer and the running game has ability to produce as well.
Unfortunately, one of UK's best and most often used receiving threat, TE CJ Conrad is out for the bowl (leader in TD, 2nd in yards despite only playing or catching a pass in 6 games).
The UK D isn't great, and sometimes they haven't been good. Some of the stats and results are skewed by facing Louisville, Georgia, Miss St, plus Ole Miss was in a stretch of avg 42 ppg in the 3 games prior and the 1 game after playing UK. But the UK D also allowed a struggling Tennessee team 445y (Vol's season high). But this is not to say they lack playmakers on that side of the ball. LB Josh Allen has made a huge splash this season, garnering alot of NFL attention - his 40 QB pressures are 3rd in the SEC for edge rushers according to PFF. LB Jordan Jones was 2nd team SEC 2016, but missed 4 games this season. S Mike Edwards has also consistently graded high according to PFF is the leading tackler and also speculated to be a high draft pick should he declare for the NFL following this game. Jr CBs Westry and Baity are big and have been starting since they were frosh.
Contrary to UK, NW started off slow, just 2-3 in their first 5, but did have to play 3 bowl teams, 2 on the road (lost all 3). In their first 5 games NW O avg 25.6, D avg 26.4. As the schedule softened up, it's no surprise NW's numbers improved to 32.5 O ppg and just 15 ppg D allowed. NW did go 3-0 vs bowl teams in their current 7 game win streak, but also faced some very poor offenses, 6 out of the 7 Os faced in that span rank 87th or worse. As a result, NW's D numbers are good and they have some quality players in the front 7, but despite facing some poor offensive teams, NW still ranked dead last in the Big Ten in ypg allowed through the air.
NW's O has great experience at QB and RB and although still down from 2016, the receiving unit picked it up after a rough open to the season. Pass protection was a major issue for NW in their first 5 games, but either they improved over the final 7, or the quality of opposition had something to do with it, or NW schemed their protections and hot routes better to beat pressure. This will be an interesting area to see if UK can exploit some potential weakness NW showed earlier in their OL protections.
Northwestern has never once been favored in a bowl game dating back to their 1995 team, 12 bowl games in that span, dogged in all 12, now this spread is flirting with 10? So is this one of the best NW teams of all time, or is this one of the weaker UK bowl teams? Really, neither I don't think. I think these teams are pretty even actually. NW was on the right side of the coin flip vs Iowa, MSU and Nebraska...3 straight wins in OT. NW was outgained in their 10 pt win over Purdue.
I'll admit, my mouth started drooling when I saw this line open at 7 2 weeks ago, now it is being bet up to 9.5 or 10 and 3:1 ML odds! I will enthusiastically be betting this game today!
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I will be on +10. Waiting for juice to settle. Lets have some fun
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
So that is my most confident ML dog today.
I really kind of like all the dogs today to one degree or another, but I do think that in all the other 3 the dog is clearly the weaker team with more liabilities than the favorite.
Naturally I like New Mexico State a good bit, but their D is going to face a challenge today I fear. That will be the key. Baring any rust, I do have confidence in their O, the passing game should be fine and I actually think they could run the ball better than they typically do.
I will probably nervously bet Arizona State. NCSt did not want to go to this bowl. Since their bye week close games have been the rule for them as I wonder when some of their long-shot playoff and ACC Title hopes start to fade, did the prep and effort also fade? Everyone is aware of the issues at Arizona State right now, so that is the big concern there. Should the Devils play to their potential I could see them winning this game.
WF-aTm game I don't have much of a pulse on. One of the games I'll probably decide right before KO. I love WF as a team, not sure how much I like them as a fav over SEC, even though the SEC is schitzo Texas A&M.
My most fearful dog is USC. My angle though is I'm just not much of a believer in Ohio State. The Michigan St game was fantastic, and I enjoyed the comeback vs Penn St, but so often when I watch them this season I'm like "meh". Unless I were to get excited about blowing out bad teams, which I don't. USC has some issues, both lines of scrimmage primarily and that is arguably the most important part of any matchup.
I really kind of like all the dogs today to one degree or another, but I do think that in all the other 3 the dog is clearly the weaker team with more liabilities than the favorite.
Naturally I like New Mexico State a good bit, but their D is going to face a challenge today I fear. That will be the key. Baring any rust, I do have confidence in their O, the passing game should be fine and I actually think they could run the ball better than they typically do.
I will probably nervously bet Arizona State. NCSt did not want to go to this bowl. Since their bye week close games have been the rule for them as I wonder when some of their long-shot playoff and ACC Title hopes start to fade, did the prep and effort also fade? Everyone is aware of the issues at Arizona State right now, so that is the big concern there. Should the Devils play to their potential I could see them winning this game.
WF-aTm game I don't have much of a pulse on. One of the games I'll probably decide right before KO. I love WF as a team, not sure how much I like them as a fav over SEC, even though the SEC is schitzo Texas A&M.
My most fearful dog is USC. My angle though is I'm just not much of a believer in Ohio State. The Michigan St game was fantastic, and I enjoyed the comeback vs Penn St, but so often when I watch them this season I'm like "meh". Unless I were to get excited about blowing out bad teams, which I don't. USC has some issues, both lines of scrimmage primarily and that is arguably the most important part of any matchup.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Still at gym. Missed it dropped to 9....womp.
