Friday NBA plays

[raems]

35-33, +11.05 ytd

Memphis +1 to win 2. Nuggets 3rd game in 4 nights, having traveled the most out of any team in the league. This is like a road game for them, the players' bodies have had no time to adjust and recover from being back home. Nuggets facing a team that rebounds as well as them, except Memphis is much more rested. Memphis also off b2b upset losses, facing a team that beat them at the grindhouse a few weeks ago. Should be a game the grizzlies win, also anticipate a lot of geniuses hypothesizing about the line which looks fair to me. I think if they really liked Denver we could've seen a -2.5 open, crazier lines have been posted.

 

[raems]

Also another thing-this whole Denver air at home thing has been mythologized so much, you gotta consider situations when thinking about that kind of factor. That thin air is in no way an advantage for the nuggets tonight, if anything it'll make the nuggets feel like shit for a little while after flying and playing in every damn arena in the nba already.

 

[divol]

Good luck mate!

Can't figure my mind about this one. Denver has a rare chance to play in front of their fans, so should be some motivation.
On the other hand, I think that Denver struggles a lot against teams that can rebound as well as them and Memphis has revenge angle and surely want to stop the losing streak.
Teams match up really well against each other and the line seems to be on spot. Really 50 - 50 game I think...

 

[AtlHawks]

After a 4 or more game roadie...

Teams in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 9 seasons -

Denver ............. 17-5
Golden State .... 24-9-2
New York ......... 14-6-1
Memphis .......... 14-7-1

 

[raems]

Hawks, respect that stat and totally understand why one would follow it, but I think there's too much else going against Denver tonight. It's not just the 4 game trip, there are circumstances on top of that that makes them a profitable fade tonight imo.

 

[nbafan88]

what circumstances?

 

[raems]

Fan-the fact that the first 6 weeks of the season in their entirety have basically been one long road trip for the Nugs, the fact that the Nugs have absolutely zero offensive continuity right now, the fact that the Nugs are playing an opponent that has won in Denver as recently as last year, the fact that the opponent will be highly motivated to break a losing streak, and the fact that Denver has been playing well ats recently but if you watched the games they look completely out of sorts.

Respect somebody playing Den bc of that stat, but I see a lot more going against them than for them tonight. Gotta pick and choose your spots backing Denver at home, this is in no way a special situation favoring these Nugs.

 

[raems]

And also, I question the relevance of that sample size. 22 games, 9 years. 2-0 mixed in with the occasional 2-1 in this spot over the course of 9 years, I'm not totally sure what to make of that. Would have to go back and check on the spot Denver's opponents found themselves in heading into Denver to actually derive a valuable conclusion from that info. It could either be somewhat meaningful, or a completely random set of data that happens to be 17-5 but doesn't have valid significance.

 

[nbafan88]

the nuggets have trouble at the end of games simply because there is no go guy but other than I don't think the offense is that bad now that lawson has found his groove