Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 26 Fri 2024

06:40 PM
911Minnesota TwinsP. Lopez -R-1½
-104		-168O 8
-110
912Detroit TigersK. Montero -R+1 Markets+1½
-116		+154U 8
-110
06:40 PM
921Cleveland GuardiansB. Lively -R+1½
-148		+148O 8½
-104
922Philadelphia PhilliesC. Sanchez -L+1 Markets-1½
+128		-162U 8½
-116
06:50 PM
923Cincinnati RedsN. Lodolo -L+1½
-214		-103O 7½
-113
924Tampa Bay RaysS. Baz -R+1 Markets-1½
+184		-107U 7½
-107
07:07 PM
913Texas RangersA. Heaney -L+1½
-190		+110O 8
-114
914Toronto Blue JaysY. Kikuchi -L+1 Markets-1½
+165		-120U 8
-106
07:10 PM
901Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R+1½
-190		+116O 8
-110
902New York MetsK. Senga -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-126U 8
-110
07:10 PM
915New York YankeesN. Cortes -L-1½
+142		-110O 9½
-105
916Boston Red SoxB. Bello -R+1 Markets+1½
-162		+100U 9½
-115
08:10 PM
903Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L+1½
-110		+198O 8
-105
904Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R+1 Markets-1½
-110		-220U 8
-115
08:10 PM
917Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R-1½
+110		-150O 7½
-115
918Chicago White SoxD. Thorpe -R+1 Markets+1½
-130		+138U 7½
-105
08:10 PM
927Los Angeles DodgersG. Stone -R+1½
-198		+108O 8½
+105
928Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L+1 Markets-1½
+173		-118U 8½
-125
08:10 PM
929Chicago CubsK. Hendricks -R+1½
-160		+130O 9
-118
930Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R+1 Markets-1½
+140		-142U 9
-102
08:15 PM
905Washington NationalsM. Gore -L+1½
-158		+140O 8
+100
906St. Louis CardinalsS. Gray -R+1 Markets-1½
+138		-153U 8
-120
10:15 PM
909Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+1½
-140		+159O 8
-105
910San Francisco GiantsK. Harrison -L+1 Markets-1½
+120		-174U 8
-115
 
it's like they want me to keep betting tigers, i feel bout same way as i did when they playing cle, im not convinced twins are much better than them. unless i look at Montero vs twins lineup and see something i hate i can pretty much guarantee ill be playing tigers+1.5 at cheap price!!
 
guardians def worth a look at that price. collision between 2 things im interested in fading 2nd half tho, cle offense but i also been saying not sold on Sanchez having a big 2nd half. just 1st thoughts so i know what to start looking at later on.
 
wanted to like lodolo but he ain't been that great and rays are so much better hitting lefties! hate to totally go against my 1st thought but if rays ff tt is 1.5 i gotta think bout the over.
 
really don't see any reason not to play tigers rl, honestly want to play the ml but if they wanna give us the 1.5 runs for so cheap with a team on a really good stretch of ball when they don't win they still playing close games there no point being greedy, think the +1.5 makes to much sense at the price. think it was july 4th last time tigers lost a game by more than 1.
 
Gore last 3 starts been ugly, including facing cards in washington but cards have been putrid vs lhp, it very hard to think they will hit gore again with how much they struggling vs lefties. guess need to look closer and see if gore has any underlying issues going on? i've always believed in his talent, as long as nothing wrong this should be a spot he has a nice bounce back start. nats actually hit gray in that series also, again not something i'd expect to continue. this has nrfi potential and ff under potential for sure, really think this a struggle for both offenses.
 
Reynolds out on bereavement on Fri and Sat at minimum for PIT, still won't be surprised to see their bats get some life here but that's a tough beat for a sketchy lineup
 
1st glance royals ff -.5 seems like a real solid play. throw out starts vs cardinals and hendricks struggling everywhere else! kc has enough guys that smash change ups and most the lineup should hit his sinker. gotta think kc will score 2-3 runs minimum, could be a bigger number but in reality i don't think cubs will muster very much offense vs singer so it might only take a couple runs.
 
2daBank said:
1st glance royals ff -.5 seems like a real solid play. throw out starts vs cardinals and hendricks struggling everywhere else! kc has enough guys that smash change ups and pat the lineup should hit his sinker. gotta think kc will score 2-3 runs minimum, could be a bigger number but in reality i don't think cubs will muster very much offense vs singer so it might only take a couple runs.
Click to expand...
ff team total on the radar
 
KJ said:
ff team total on the radar
Click to expand...

reason im initially saying the -.5 instead cause i really dont think cubs will get much off singer. i expect kc be able to hang 3+ but not sure they need more than 2 to cash the rl? i assume the -.5 a better price but i havnt looked.
 
2daBank said:
reason im initially saying the -.5 instead cause i really dont think cubs will get much off singer. i expect kc be able to hang 3+ but not sure they need more than 2 to cash the rl? i assume the -.5 a better price but i havnt looked.
Click to expand...
Not sure

I just love me some overs in KC when it's hot and humid and I know they should touch up Hendricks
 
2daBank said:
agree.

it actually close. right now on dk the ov 2.5 is -110, the -.5 is -105
Click to expand...
Too bad can't SGP that

I don't even know if you can include first five in a SGP at all at DK, haven't looked. You can include FF side/total at Caesars in one, not sure if you can together
 
sal perez only 1-8 lifetime vs hendricks but think it fair to say those other at bats prob came against a better version. think his swing is perfect for the slower junk hendricks throws if he not hitting his spots which he mostly isn't. ov 2.5 h,r,rbi is plus money, like that.
 
KJ said:
Too bad can't SGP that

I don't even know if you can include first five in a SGP at all at DK, haven't looked. You can include FF side/total at Caesars in one, not sure if you can together
Click to expand...

havnt found anywhere can use ff in sgp
 
rays ff tt ov 1.5 little pricey at -145 but man that lineup is so much better vs lhp and lodolo hasn't been real good, certainly wasn't my 1st thought when i saw this game but numbers don't lie, pretty confident rays plate at least 2.
 
Guess you can't do a Caesars joint in Illinois unless you get closer to Chicago but should be able to do it online, plenty of representation in the state
 
KJ said:
Guess you can't do a Caesars joint in Illinois unless you get closer to Chicago but should be able to do it online, plenty of representation in the state
Click to expand...

pretty sure i have a account, think they pissed me off when i started playing the online ones in illinios, don't even remember why anymore, lol. actually that was mgm pretty sure. don't think i've checked ceasars out, hard to keep track. lol
 
KJ said:
Guess you can't do a Caesars joint in Illinois unless you get closer to Chicago but should be able to do it online, plenty of representation in the state
Click to expand...
What's funny is when I typed that AI defaulted me to Little Caesars on a map lol

That said they do have an app in the state
 
TheDodgers said:
Got one so far. NRFI Cleveland/Phillies -125
Click to expand...

i was super close on this one, i don't think i got around to looking at lively 1st inning cause think i was just a bit scared of phillies hr pop in top 3 of lineup vs a pretty average pitcher. i def leaned this way tho. i'd think lively will be able to use his entire arsonal and get early outs 1st time around, def think phils plate a few once they get a 2nd or 3rd crack at him, he gonna have to rely on his slider early and often imo. feel like cle can prob plate a few off Sanchez also, the price tempting cause i capped this as pretty much even/slight philly edge thru 5 but then we get nice plus money in a close game with the superior pen.
 
2daBank said:
i was super close on this one, i don't think i got around to looking at lively 1st inning cause think i was just a bit scared of phillies hr pop in top 3 of lineup vs a pretty average pitcher. i def leaned this way tho. i'd think lively will be able to use his entire arsonal and get early outs 1st time around, def think phils plate a few once they get a 2nd or 3rd crack at him, he gonna have to rely on his slider early and often imo. feel like cle can prob plate a few off Sanchez also, the price tempting cause i capped this as pretty much even/slight philly edge thru 5 but then we get nice plus money in a close game with the superior pen.
Click to expand...
Trying to go back and find it but both Lively and Sanchez have NRFI streaks going.
 
if that game was in cle think i'd be more willing to jump on nrfi. little nervous schearber hasn't hit a bomb since asb i dont think, you know that coming sooner than later and that park is hitter friendly, turner seeing it well so lively slider needs to be on point out the gates. the good is lively has finally figured out a better way to get lefties out and keep their hr down, previous seasons no chance i'd think bout this with him having to get schearber and harper in 1st.
 
TheDodgers said:
Trying to go back and find it but both Lively and Sanchez have NRFI streaks going.
Click to expand...

nothing against way you guys are doing it, shit been good, i can't really give a bigger compliment than saying i have tailed both you and @peelpub94 on few of these, not all but ones i like, it incredibly rare i ever tail outside a few ppl i have tons of respect for/talked with for years. and they still gotta convince me a bit! lol. that said m kinda staying away from even looking at the teams or pitchers runs allowed in 1st to this point in season as i assume the guys being talked bout that been crushing these have been playing it that way (only way they could be up so much!) so think the best way for these to maybe work for me is approaching them the way i'd cap other parts the game. obviously pitchers early numbers important to me i just don't wanna fall into habit of playing the same ones guys who been crushing all season playing as you would think those be the ones with less value. like i said yesterday we see how it goes trying to be little different, no clue if it work.
 
2daBank said:
nothing against way you guys are doing it, shit been good, i can't really give a bigger compliment than saying i have tailed both you and @peelpub94 on few of these, not all but ones i like, it incredibly rare i ever tail outside a few ppl i have tons of respect for/talked with for years. and they still gotta convince me a bit! lol. that said m kinda staying away from even looking at the teams or pitchers runs allowed in 1st to this point in season as i assume the guys being talked bout that been crushing these have been playing it that way (only way they could be up so much!) so think the best way for these to maybe work for me is approaching them the way i'd cap other parts the game. obviously pitchers early numbers important to me i just don't wanna fall into habit of playing the same ones guys who been crushing all season playing as you would think those be the ones with less value. like i said yesterday we see how it goes trying to be little different, no clue if it work.
Click to expand...
Books are definitely catching up, mid June it was rare to see -150 or -160 on these lines. And now I'm a little more gun-shy. Just need to be more selective. 1-2 max, that's it.
 
peelpub94 said:
Books are definitely catching up, mid June it was rare to see -150 or -160 on these lines. And now I'm a little more gun-shy. Just need to be more selective. 1-2 max, that's it.
Click to expand...

selective been my name more this season really than ever before! generally i have different ways of looking at things so really hoping i can come up with some that maybe not sticking out cause of teams record to this point, whether it a good idea for me not to even look at those overall numbers on season im not sure, only one way to find out! lol
 
i mean seattle at home has to been a slam dunk most the year? i was wondering last night if my ff under record in that park be better or worse playing the nrfi instead? i know the ones i have lost more often than not lost very late like 5th, don't recall many at all that got busted up in 1st. mt memory not good enough to say 100% just don't recall many 1st inning runs when playing the ff. pretty confident there no way it changed things enough to be paying -175, i get lot of +105 on their ff un 3.5 plays. i'll stick with those! lol
 
i assume seattle gonna get arozarena in lineup asap like tonight? not sure he has any impact on 1st inning other than i think he will be energized and it outta have a positive overall effect on seattle from a state of mind at the very least.
 
the arozarena trade kinda annoys me from a standpoint of wanting to back rays in some fashion today. i don't think they the kind of team that be demoralized by team selling a guy off and he hasn't been having a fantastic year but feel like he had been hitting more lately, he was def a piece the puzzle of rays offense being drastically better vs lhp.
 
2daBank said:
the arozarena trade kinda annoys me from a standpoint of wanting to back rays in some fashion today. i don't think they the kind of team that be demoralized by team selling a guy off and he hasn't been having a fantastic year but feel like he had been hitting more lately, he was def a piece the puzzle of rays offense being drastically better vs lhp.
Click to expand...
Reds need to take two of 3 or sweep badly. If not guessing they start unloading someone.
 
peelpub94 said:
ATL/NYM seems like another NRFI candidate -125 now
Click to expand...
Crazy seeing these NRFI adjust so early in the morning. Really wish at the start of the season I had a clue about this to see who gets better and worse during a season and even see the droughts with certain teams in this.
 
Almost tempted to go with the braves tonight as dogs. Does the losing streak end tonight with Senga going for Cubs first time back
 
I'd pay up to -180 juiced NRFI as along as it hits. There's always parlay partners to add to get to + money. Keep it up boys, appreciate the thoughts and plays.
 
TheDodgers said:
Almost tempted to go with the braves tonight as dogs. Does the losing streak end tonight with Senga going for Cubs first time back
Click to expand...

i guess the fact they dogs and not overpriced favs helps but im super low on them. i wasn't high on them before they lost acuna and now albies i think? how did senga look in rehab starts? mostly his k:bb ratio what most important for him imo. i'm a huge senga fan! maybe it some cause when he 1st came into league i killled it with his k props, lol. just really like his stuff, when he can locate!! im pretty terrible capping mets so it prob a stay away for me.
 
my favorite inconsistent pitcher Bello going for red sox tonight. super tempting to play his ov 4.5 k's -135. that yankees lineup is pure shit once you get past soto and judge and judge isn't any stranger to striking out! Verdugo has hit him very hard which i suppose kinda lengthen yanks lineup a bit? little worried they have a plus number on Bello to go ov 15.5 outs, not end of world tho, if his pitch count high he most likely will have the k's if he simply goes 5 innings, i'd be super disappointed if he couldn't manage 5 solid innings vs this lineup! he faced yanks on june 14th, he was rather bad, only went 4.2 innings gave up bunch of runs, walked 3 and still managed to punch out 5!! just don't see a world he can't fan 5 unless he just gets crushed out the gates, red sox tend to let him
stay in and figure it out long as he getting outs, so we have that going for us as well, it take a epic disaster vs a mediocre lineup for him not to cash this!
 
2daBank said:
i guess the fact they dogs and not overpriced favs helps but im super low on them. i wasn't high on them before they lost acuna and now albies i think? how did senga look in rehab starts? mostly his k:bb ratio what most important for him imo. i'm a huge senga fan! maybe it some cause when he 1st came into league i killled it with his k props, lol. just really like his stuff, when he can locate!! im pretty terrible capping mets so it prob a stay away for me.
Click to expand...
Last start not so good. 79 pitches. 4 walks 1 k. Prior to that 3 starts 1 run, 4 hits, 12 ks in 3 starts
 
muts really have the best record in baseball since beginning of june? i knew they have had a few hot stretches but wouldn't have guessed that. combine that with braves awfulness (the way they handed mets game last night was a very mets type thing to do, i thought they switched jerseys!) if senga is ready to go think the line is justified, not saying i like mets, actually think price is pretty fair.
 
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