CFL Syndicate 2024

So what do the Argos do now? They don't have a lot of experience at QB. Do they try to trade for someone?

Apparently just over half of Kelly's salary was paid up front as a signing bonus so they don't even clear that much cap space without him.

I could see Ottawa dealing Masoli to Toronto but he's a major risk after back to back major injuries. Maybe they just run with what they have.
 
Teapot9 said:
Playin grab ass with a team masseuse
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Not even. Alll he's accused of doing is pressuring her to go out with him. Hardly worth 9 games IMO unless the league uncovered something else from their investigation.

She's claiming that her rejection of him led to the team terminating her contract but I find it hard to believe theres a connection. The team has stated that they had repeatedly told her she would have to improve her skillset if she wanted to have her contract renewed for 2024. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in court.
 
Hulu said:
Not even. Alll he's accused of doing is pressuring her to go out with him. Hardly worth 9 games IMO unless the league uncovered something else from their investigation.

She's claiming that her rejection of him led to the team terminating her contract but I find it hard to believe theres a connection. The team has stated that they had repeatedly told her she would have to improve her skillset if she wanted to have her contract renewed for 2024. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in court.
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How’s that hoodie I sent you?
 
KJ said:
Sounds like he'd have probably been ok if not for those damn text messages
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Yeah it sounds as if she has a lot on him. Wouldn't surprise me if Kelly settles because he won't win in court.

I think her case against the team is less solid. She was a contract employee and the team can choose to not renew her contract if they wish. They claim she had been told previously that the role was changing and she would have to upgrade her skills if she wanted to return in 2024. If that is documented, I think its hard tpo prove a link between Kelly's actions and the team not renewing her contract.

At least we can't say she is trying to get rich. Shes only asking for like $150k combined
 
Hulu said:
Yeah it sounds as if she has a lot on him. Wouldn't surprise me if Kelly settles because he won't win in court.

I think her case against the team is less solid. She was a contract employee and the team can choose to not renew her contract if they wish. They claim she had been told previously that the role was changing and she would have to upgrade her skills if she wanted to return in 2024. If that is documented, I think its hard tpo prove a link between Kelly's actions and the team not renewing her contract.

At least we can't say she is trying to get rich. Shes only asking for like $150k combined
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Agree with all of it
 
Initial leans...

Hamilton under 8.5 - How long can BLM stay healthy? Even if he does he wasn't exactly awesome when he played LY. He had a negttive TD:INT ratio and never looked in sync with the offence. The cats have also lost their entire linebacking crew and the centrepiece of the rebuilt unit, Jordan Williams, just retired unexpectedly. DB Javian Elliot also just retired. I think 8 wins would be a triumph for this team.

Edmonton over 6.5 - Signing MBT brings this team some instant credibility and with an improved OL and DL, I could see this team winning 8.

Ottawa over 5.5 - Improvements all over the field but most notably at QB with Dru Brown. It remains to be seen if he will look as good carrying a team as he did in a relief role in winnipeg or turn into another James Franklin. But I don't think its asking too much for this team to hit 6 wins.
 
Ok lets make this the official first bet of 2024. Only a half unit because I haven't had a lot of success with CFL futures in the past. Its such a long season and anything can happen. LY I took Montreal u7.5 RSW and they go on to win the damn cup.

0.5* Hamilton under 8.5 RSW -111

Its my team and I hate to do it but I don't see a lot to look forward to this season in the hammer.
 
Hulu said:
Ok lets make this the official first bet of 2024. Only a half unit because I haven't had a lot of success with CFL futures in the past. Its such a long season and anything can happen. LY I took Montreal u7.5 RSW and they go on to win the damn cup.

0.5* Hamilton under 8.5 RSW -111

Its my team and I hate to do it but I don't see a lot to look forward to this season in the hammer.
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Alright.

I'll ride once I see a Numero.
 
Hulu said:
Ok lets make this the official first bet of 2024. Only a half unit because I haven't had a lot of success with CFL futures in the past. Its such a long season and anything can happen. LY I took Montreal u7.5 RSW and they go on to win the damn cup.

0.5* Hamilton under 8.5 RSW -111

Its my team and I hate to do it but I don't see a lot to look forward to this season in the hammer.
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I like it, think we see more parity this year amongst the bottom of the league, no one looks horrible

So less 4-5 win teams and more 6-8
 
guaranteeed said:
I like it, think we see more parity this year amongst the bottom of the league, no one looks horrible

So less 4-5 win teams and more 6-8
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No real dominant teams either other than Winnipeg.. Toronto is without a qb for at least half the season and I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone for good judging by the public flak the team is getting. Montreal seriously overachieved last season and has lost several key pieces to the NFL. BC has serious questions at receiver and OL.
 
How about some CFL preseason action for this Monday!! Can't believe the season is here. Its all happening so fast.

0.25* WPG / SSK under 41.5 -110
0.25* Saskatchewan +4.5 -110
0.25* Saskatchewan ML +170

The CFL went back to this early first preseason game again this year. Its not easy to schedule a 2 week preseason in a 9 team league so we get this early island game that comes only a week into training camp. Coaches hate it because they have barely had time to put the team together and they don't want to risk projected starters to injury if they aren't in game shape yet. The visiting team often doesn't even bring a lot of their starters while the home team feels at least a little obligation to play theirs for a drive or two for the home fans. I don't have any advance knowledge of personnel here but the pattern is well established. These games are usually penalty filled slop-fests played by guys who are still trying to figure out the 3 down game and the home team usually wins. I'll add if other books put up a similar line.
 
week 1 data.

It used to be auto plays on the dogs in week 1. I will still do this but the success rate has slowed a bit. Still good though

Week 1 dogs since 2007 overall :

Straight Up record 29-28-2 (50.9%)
ATS:40-19 (67.8%)

since 2017 :

SU:7-13 (35.0%)
ATS:12-8 (60.0%)

The last 2 seasons have been an even 2-2 each season ATS and only 2-6 Straight up.

Since 2017 the bigger lined dogs have the best ROI as these dogs are 7-2 ATS and 3-6 straight up. Even with 3-6 Straight up I feel like the dog moneylines have value. Why are the dogs so successful? In my opinion it comes down to Defense and lack of consistent QB play. Also Offensive line issues.

As I said the dogs since 2017 are 12-8 ATS but Dogs facing Winnipeg in week 1 are 1-2 ATS and 0-3 SU. So the big power teams we should avoid. Avoiding Winnipeg would Increase our record to 11-6 ATS. I have not looked into the who is who in the off-season but Until I see Winnipeg regression I will assume they are still Elite and best to stay away.

Speaking of Winnipeg they, after the 2018 season they are 2-12 ATS as chalk. They have been dominate ATS since 2017 but seems like the favorable lines they find more success. Makes sense.


I found this to be interesting as week. Something I will be betting and keeping track of.

Favorites when their next game is home since 2017 (F and season>2017 and n :site) 74-95 ATS

Favorites and next site away 115-95 ATS

I am sure I can eliminate a few things to make a better ROI but the premise is take dogs when the favorite opponent has a home game the following week.

Last years result: 16-16 ATS so yea not up to the standard but maybe thats why I didnt find the success in previous seasons.
 
Dogs early on makes a lot of sense. As a general rule, good teams decline while bad teams get better. But the books are still lining these games like it is last year.
 
Gonna add one more future here. I like what Sask is doing with their new coaching staff and a host of free agent signings. This team managed 6 wins last year with Trevor Harris on the shelf after week 5 or so. I don't think its asking a lot for them to win 8 with him back and fully healthy again. He looked good in the first preseason game so I have no concerns. They have upgraded their OL and AJ Oulette with Frankie Hickson make a potent RB duo. The team just looks solid all around.

0.5* Saskatchewan over 7.5 RSW -122
 
Hulu said:
Gonna add one more future here. I like what Sask is doing with their new coaching staff and a host of free agent signings. This team managed 6 wins last year with Trevor Harris on the shelf after week 5 or so. I don't think its asking a lot for them to win 8 with him back and fully healthy again. He looked good in the first preseason game so I have no concerns. They have upgraded their OL and AJ Oulette with Frankie Hickson make a potent RB duo. The team just looks solid all around.

0.5* Saskatchewan over 7.5 RSW -122
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Good stuff
 
Winnipeg getting hit hard by the injury bug in camp. Bighill, Jamal Parker and Cam Lawson all on the 6 game now. That's 3 potential starting defenders on the shelf for week 1 at least.
 
@Teapot9 I was thinking today. Remember that blonde, with legs up to her neck, we always saw strolling along the Argos sideline the last couple of seasons? I wonder if she is the one suing Kelly for being a creep?

If so, I can't say I blame him. I'd like to do some gender-based violence to her ass.
 
B.A.R. said:
Nice work so far
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Thanks BAR.

This year is going to be tough. I'm not sure if I can turn a profit.

Fanduel appears to be releasing the openers nowadays and they have me so limited I can't get anything down. So I have to wait until the non-fraudulent books open to get any money down and by that time the line is beat into shape. The good ol days are gone.
 
What’s your thought on making In-game wagers? Too much juice? To much time waiting for your lines?

In basketball the lines and juice move very quick when 2 very high scoring teams play. Football doesn’t have that issue
 
spottie2935 said:
What’s your thought on making In-game wagers? Too much juice? To much time waiting for your lines?

In basketball the lines and juice move very quick when 2 very high scoring teams play. Football doesn’t have that issue
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I need to get better at live wagering. I have had some success but I need to hone my skills. Maybe that is the way forward...less pre-game betting and more live.

This year I will be looking at the 3 minute warning angle again. In the right circumstances, that is the best time to bet an over. I still don't think the books have adjusted their live algos to take the CFL clock rules into account.
 
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