CFL Syndicate 2024

Well BOL to everyone this season, I haven't really done my homework on the CFL yet but will be up to speed shortly and hopefully can add some wisdom to help us all out. Ended up playing the following for tonight.
Montreal +6.5 50/100
Mon/Wpg o46.5 50/85
Montreal +7.5 50/98
 
We are expecting better things from bottom teams from last year are better bets. If a great team from last year is a dog that’s not good. It shows their weekness from the lines maker perspective
 
Last nights game has moved the lines for week 2.

Montreal goes from -4.5 to -5.5 in Edmonton next week.

Winnipeg goes from -8.5 to -7.5 when they visit Ottawa. If this continues and the number dips below 7, I think the Bombers might be worth a look. Last year they had an early season whiff at home vs BC where they lost 30-6 and it looked a whole lot like last night. The following week they went to Montreal and won 17-3 en route to a 14-4 season. Collaros struggles can probably be chalked up to a couple of new receivers and the fact that he didn't take a single rep in the preseason. And they won't take Ottawa lightly, not after this loss and not after Ottawa beat them LY in a strange game where the Bombers led by 10 at the 3 minute warning. Finally, I'll just say that despite Ottawa's improvements, I still have them the lowest rated team in the league. I watched new QB Dru Brown's preseason reps and was not impressed at all. He looked very pedestrian and he's not playing behind the greatest of O-lines either.
 
Hulu said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1798920427647226328
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been waiting and losing because they have been elite for so long.

I am going to chance, and fade Winnipeg until they cover. I've seen past elite teams start and continue poorly and I think with all the changes in Winnipeg this season the lines are too high. Until the books adjust, No chance I won't bet against them until they show it. Last night wasn't good. I expect that to continue until it doesn't. We will see.

Yesterdays line was an indicator for me. Looking back at that game no way should that line been -7.5 and hanging the same type of number on the road. WPG made too many errors and didn't score a major until it was too late. Turnovers, poor special teams, guys wide open deep. Sure, it could have been one lousy game but I didn't see this many BIG type of football mistakes in past seasons from them.

At this point, I am not considering who the Redblacks are, I am focused on the line and what I saw from WPG.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

D and week<3 and line>4 and opS(W)>10

ATS:21-11 (65.6%)
 
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Look at this elks defence. Just rookies all over the place.

3 rookies on the DL (although Nkemdiche has plenty of NFL exp).

Both outside linebackers are rookies including the SAM which is a tough adjustment for an American player because there is really no equivalent position in 4 down football so there’s a lot of learning to do.

Another rook in the secondary. I feel like Harris with oulette in the backfield is going to have his way with this defence.

Sask still widely available at +1 and I think there’s still value with them. They should probably be -2.5 if not more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799116734496182647
 
Just want to say, thank you to everyone on this thread for all this information. First time posting on this site, but I am on the other one as well.

Here's to a profitable season!

Had Als +14.5/Under 55 teaser last night, which hit. Tonight I like the Stamps. How healthy is Bo Levi Mitchell? He was in a walking boot a couple weeks ago. Also, they are missing some players on defence. Stamps should roll
 
icemantbi said:
Just want to say, thank you to everyone on this thread for all this information. First time posting on this site, but I am on the other one as well.

Here's to a profitable season!

Had Als +14.5/Under 55 teaser last night, which hit. Tonight I like the Stamps. How healthy is Bo Levi Mitchell? He was in a walking boot a couple weeks ago. Also, they are missing some players on defence. Stamps should roll
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Welcome aboard.
 
Some info I found out, not sure how relevant it is, but apparently Hamilton flew out on a regular commercial flight on June 5. Not a charter, just a regular commercial flight. Not the most comfortable way to travel
 
1* BC / TOR under 47.5 -110

These were two of the higher scoring teams in the league last year, so why am I taking the under? Well on Toronto's side its obvious: Cameron Dukes is not Chad Kelly. Dukes looked capable in his 2 starts last year and even went toe to toe with Winnipeg into the 4th quarter. But I watched him in preseason and the results weren't that impressive. He had happy feet and was too quick to scramble or check down. I think this team will struggle to score against a good BC defence.

On the other side of the ball, this is not last year's BC offence either. Last year they were very pass heavy and why not, they had arguably the best receiving corps in the league. But gone are Whitehead and Rhymes from that group and last years break out star Keon Hatcher is still rehabbing from a serious injury so there are significant changes. Additionally, the club went out and signed William Stanback in an effort to improve their rushing attack and take some of the heat off their OL. I think they will be significantly more run heavy than last year.

This looks like a 24-17 type of game to me.
 
icemantbi said:
Some info I found out, not sure how relevant it is, but apparently Hamilton flew out on a regular commercial flight on June 5. Not a charter, just a regular commercial flight. Not the most comfortable way to travel
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Interesting. I wonder why?
 
Hulu said:
1* BC / TOR under 47.5 -110

These were two of the higher scoring teams in the league last year, so why am I taking the under? Well on Toronto's side its obvious: Cameron Dukes is not Chad Kelly. Dukes looked capable in his 2 starts last year and even went toe to toe with Winnipeg into the 4th quarter. But I watched him in preseason and the results weren't that impressive. He had happy feet and was too quick to scramble or check down. I think this team will struggle to score against a good BC defence.

On the other side of the ball, this is not last year's BC offence either. Last year they were very pass heavy and why not, they had arguably the best receiving corps in the league. But gone are Whitehead and Rhymes from that group and last years break out star Keon Hatcher is still rehabbing from a serious injury so there are significant changes. Additionally, the club went out and signed William Stanback in an effort to improve their rushing attack and take some of the heat off their OL. I think they will be significantly more run heavy than last year.

This looks like a 24-17 type of game to me.
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Thanks for the details Hulu I will be on it too 🏆
 
Congrats to all the Sask backers last night. But I think we got a bit lucky.

Stats wise the game was very close and I think its fair to say these teams were very evenly matched throughout. Edmonton's no-name defence did reasonably well, especially against the run, holding Oulette to 40 yards on 18 carries. And the offense looked decent under Macbeth's leadership. Had they not fumbled the game away at the end, they very well could've won.

Very rare for me but in my power rankings, I am raising EDM off the loss and lowering Sask off the win.
 
Hulu said:
Congrats to all the Sask backers last night. But I think we got a bit lucky.

Stats wise the game was very close and I think its fair to say these teams were very evenly matched throughout. Edmonton's no-name defence did reasonably well, especially against the run, holding Oulette to 40 yards on 18 carries. And the offense looked decent under Macbeth's leadership. Had they not fumbled the game away at the end, they very well could've won.

Very rare for me but in my power rankings, I am raising EDM off the loss and lowering Sask off the win.
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Good notes.
 
1* BC Lions -3.5 -110

I'm had a strong lean toward BC at 5.5 so now that its 3.5 I think its worth a bet. I can't find any specific reason for this number to have moved 2 points but I'm taking advantage. Lets go Leos and under!
 
Yeah I don't understand the line move. Can't trust the Argos with Dukes at QB and all the bad mojo surrounding Chad Kelly

Going golfing now, I'll make a final decision before game time. Right now I like the under. May take under and then may take over live and try fr a middle
 
HAMILTON — The Hamilton Tiger-Cats signed American quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa to the practice roster Monday.

Tagovailoa's older brother, Tua, is the starting quarterback with the NFL's Miami Dolphins.

Taulia Tagovailoa, 24, played collegiately at Maryland. The five-foot-11, 200-pound Hawaiian appeared in 41 games over four seasons, completing 955-of-1,424 passes (67.1 per cent) for 11,256 yards and 76 touchdowns while rushing for 13 TDs.
 
I hope it's okay to ask a general CFL question in here. Can VA for BC be trusted as the short yardage QB? He's smallish with smallish hands and stresses me out on every carry. And it might not just be on the short yardage that he's risky...he holds the ball for quite some time. It sometimes creates magic and sometimes creates a mess...but they still might he the best in the west vo.e the end of the season.

This isn't a knee-jerk reaction as fading the Leo's as heavy faves was profitable last year. I think Sask brat Bc as big home dogs last year..Sunday night home dogs are worth a peak.
 
norwesterner said:
I hope it's okay to ask a general CFL question in here. Can VA for BC be trusted as the short yardage QB? He's smallish with smallish hands and stresses me out on every carry. And it might not just be on the short yardage that he's risky...he holds the ball for quite some time. It sometimes creates magic and sometimes creates a mess...but they still might he the best in the west vo.e the end of the season.

This isn't a knee-jerk reaction as fading the Leo's as heavy faves was profitable last year. I think Sask brat Bc as big home dogs last year..Sunday night home dogs are worth a peak.
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I was thinking the same. Its crazy to risk your starter on short yardage plays. No one does that nowadays. Its not the 80s anymore.

They had Dakota Prokop in camp who is one of the best at it. I would've kept him on the roster and dumped Dolegala. Whoever does it, it shouldn't be your starter.
 
Ok so I totally whiffed on the BC/TOR game. Several things I had wrong. Some thoughts...

-BC's O-line is not improved. They looked every bit as bad as they have for the past 2 years. Granted they were up against probably the best DL in the leagfue but they got exposed. Big Time.
-The Argos still have a very good roster and all they needed was for Cameron Dukes to not lose them the game but he did way more than that. 250+ yards and 3 TD passes plus another one running is pretty damn good. He wasn't a superstar but did everything he needed to do and more while only making one mistake with the football.
 
3/4 games went over in week 1 which is a reversal of what we typically see in the early season. Offences were piling up yards like they were in mid-season form. Something to watch.
 
Hulu said:
3/4 games went over in week 1 which is a reversal of what we typically see in the early season. Offences were piling up yards like they were in mid-season form. Something to watch.
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I love it! I lost on some totals last week. I would love to see these lines adjust too high. When totals are high the dogs are playing better. That’s what happened the last 2 years. The dogs struggled to score.
 
Some thoughts for week 2

WPG/OTT
Money coming in on Ottawa after Winnipeg's poor showing last week. So are the Bombers that bad or did they just get a slow start to the season due to their new faces and veterans lack of preseason snaps? I'm thinking its the latter and they should bounce back. They are still a very dangerous team. Ottawa is the bottom team in my power rankings and I wasn't impressed at all by Dru Brown in the preseason. They are also so thin in the secondary that they signed 2 DBs this week to fill out their roster. Additionally, I always like to fade the team that has a week 1 bye. CFL training camp and preseason is so short that teams are still coming together in game 1 and when one team has a meaningful game under their belt, I feel like they are a bit farther ahead. Of note: Winnipeg lost Kenny Lawler to a broken arm but they get back Adam Bighill this week.
Lean Winnipeg -6.5

MTL/EDM
Montreal's looked pretty solid last week and they look in mid-season form. But this is a tough spot for them ewith B2B road games out west. Its a Thu-Fri schedule so that helps a bit but still its not ideal. They also lost 2 key players last week in LB Reggie Stubblefield (ACL) and WR Tyler Snead. Edmonton OTOH impressed me last week. Their defense looked much better than I would've expected given the number of rookies on it and you can see the offence under MBT's leadership coming together. The spot favours the Elks here but its also hard to get in Montreal's way right now.
Lean Edmonton +5.5

CAL/BC
The 50 cent game. 50,000+ expected at the dome but how many stay for the football game remains to be seen. It should be loud for the home team regardless. BC should def be the fav here but I think 8 is too much against a stamps team that acquitted itself well last week. Jake Maier was PFFs highest rated QB in week 1 and I tend to agree. He was pushing it downfield regularly and looked like a different QB than what we saw last year. It remains to be seen if he can keep it up.
Lean Calgary +8

SSK/HAM
No real opinion on this one yet. Line looks about right to me
 
what is the status of Masoli ?

Ottawa does have talent at WR.

Data is strong on Ott here if they can score 16 + but the problem in past seasons they have not been able to do so. I had a bad season last year and shut down observing the CFL early. I am not certain about the teams at this point.

I would like to know more about Ottawa on O'line and defense. I wasn't impressed with Winnipeg's offense last week and in some cases that might be a problem for them all season.

I hate that the consensus is high on A historically bad dog, but I still am of the belief Winnipeg might be off this season. It is only one game so who knows, but I like the bad start for them. 1-0 against them.

t:team=Redblacks and H and D and points>15

16-8 ATS last 2024 and omit the 2022 when they couldnt do anything its 15-5. I hope to darn they are not as bad as 2022.

H and t:team=Redblacks and week<7 they have a poor record in early season home game. 5-15 ATS

The question to me is, can they keep the ball and score like the other teams.
 
I have two strong leans this week
1st one is Winnipeg to bounce back after a bad game against MTL. I also have Ottawa as the lowest ranked team until they prove me otherwise. Also, I like fading a team with a week 1 bye. Advantage to Winnipeg for having played a meaningful game while Ottawa hasn't and haven't played at all in 2 weeks. Right now Peg is -7, hoping I can catch -6.5 or even -6 by kickoff

Other strong leans is Calgary catching 8 points. Calgary with a bye next week should come out hard knowing they get a weeks rest. And I don't trust VA right now with his arm and BCs defense left a lot to be desired.

Slight lean to Edmonton but it's rough for me to go against MTL with how they played week 1. Will have to mull that over.

No opinion yet on Ham/,Sask but being that it's a home and home situation I lean Hamilton at home then Sask at home next week
 
spottie2935 said:
what is the status of Masoli ?

Ottawa does have talent at WR.

Data is strong on Ott here if they can score 16 + but the problem in past seasons they have not been able to do so. I had a bad season last year and shut down observing the CFL early. I am not certain about the teams at this point.

I would like to know more about Ottawa on O'line and defense. I wasn't impressed with Winnipeg's offense last week and in some cases that might be a problem for them all season.

I hate that the consensus is high on A historically bad dog, but I still am of the belief Winnipeg might be off this season. It is only one game so who knows, but I like the bad start for them. 1-0 against them.

t:team=Redblacks and H and D and points>15

16-8 ATS last 2024 and omit the 2022 when they couldnt do anything its 15-5. I hope to darn they are not as bad as 2022.

H and t:team=Redblacks and week<7 they have a poor record in early season home game. 5-15 ATS

The question to me is, can they keep the ball and score like the other teams.
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Ottawa does have a good group of receivers but not much else. Dru Brown is a big question mark at QB and their OL is bottom three in the league. Their defence is average on a good day but with cluster injuries in the secondary, I think Collaros can exploit them.

OTOH not having Lawler is a big blow for Winnipeg's offense.

Its the Bombers or nothing for me but I might just sit it out. Still thinking.
 
Hulu said:
Ottawa does have a good group of receivers but not much else. Dru Brown is a big question mark at QB and their OL is bottom three in the league. Their defence is average on a good day but with cluster injuries in the secondary, I think Collaros can exploit them.

OTOH not having Lawler is a big blow for Winnipeg's offense.

Its the Bombers or nothing for me but I might just sit it out. Still thinking.
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Think the best opportunity for A Peg wager is in-game. If the opportunity doesn't show no harm no foul. I am sticking with Anti- plays against Winnipeg..
 
the team data which is less valuable than overall data is for Ottawa and over. If there has been one hole in Winnipeg ATS results it’s right here. Yet still 33% win rate isn’t that great to fade. I like less than 30 %.
 

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Overall data Bombers are the play at greater than>-7 meaning the closer it is to 0 the better chance for a Bomber cover. In game bets excluded. Closing line only.
 
Weather not expected to be nice in Ottawa tonight, showers right now, turning to heavy rain with thunder & lightning around 6pm est also a tornado watch is in place from 6-10 tonight in Ottawa. I'm a couple hours west of Ottawa(by car) and it is not very nice here our weather is generally the same as Ottawa. Under 46.5 looking enticing.
 
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