CFL Syndicate 2024

Didn't take long for it to move to -10.5. At that number I feel like taking Toronto. Arbuckle is a veteran and at one time he looked like he might be a bonafide starter in the league. With a defensive or st score, I could see the argos hanging.
 
Alright I talked myself into it...

1* Toronto +10.5 -110

I think the market has overreacted to Kelly being out. As I said previously, its not like Arbuckle is a slouch. He's a vet with plenty of starts under his belt and in his one start this season, he was pff's top ranked QB for the week. He's always been better coming off the bench than starting and he's thrown a few too many picks in his time but if he can limit those and play a safe game, he will do ok. He's not afraid to go downfield with the ball either so the defence can't just stack the box to stop the run. Not to mention, it wouldn't surprise me to see Dinwiddie implement a package to use Cameron Dukes and his scrambling ability to switch things up. And along those lines, the Argos can lean heavily on the run with their 3 headed backfield of Carey, McMahon and Adeboboye. Toronto's defence is solid and they have the best special teams returner in the league. I think this could be more of a game than the market thinks.
 
Hulu said:
Alright I talked myself into it...

1* Toronto +10.5 -110

I think the market has overreacted to Kelly being out. As I said previously, its not like Arbuckle is a slouch. He's a vet with plenty of starts under his belt and in his one start this season, he was pff's top ranked QB for the week. He's always been better coming off the bench than starting and he's thrown a few too many picks in his time but if he can limit those and play a safe game, he will do ok. He's not afraid to go downfield with the ball either so the defence can't just stack the box to stop the run. Not to mention, it wouldn't surprise me to see Dinwiddie implement a package to use Cameron Dukes and his scrambling ability to switch things up. And along those lines, the Argos can lean heavily on the run with their 3 headed backfield of Carey, McMahon and Adeboboye. Toronto's defence is solid and they have the best special teams returner in the league. I think this could be more of a game than the market thinks.
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On it
 
I'm gonna go with the under too. Two very good defenses matching up. Winnipeg has been an under team all year with a 4-14 o/u record. Toronto has been 12-6 o/u but now without their MOP level qb, they will be playing a different offensive philosophy. They will lean into the run game and ask Arbuckle just to not make any mistakes. The two times these teams met this year they scores were 16-14 (after OT) and 14-11. I'm not expecting this game to be quite that low scoring but something like 26-19 sounds about right.

1* TOR / WPG under 49.5 -110

Also, most books at 49.5 but pinnacle sitting at a flat 49 currently. When pinny is a flat half point off the market, you pay attention.
 
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So I am still sitting on a half unit of Toronto to win at +660 and good money management theory says that given the situation, I should probably take Winnipeg -450 to hedge out.

But I'm gonna let it ride. No hedging on this one. Maybe if it was a life changing amount of money but we're talking about a nickel if I lose.

Obviously the major narrative right now is Arbuckle starting instead of Kelly. The book on Arbuckle is basically that he sucks and I've been as critical of him over the past few years as anyone. But I think if you look back at the arc of his career, there is some room for optimism.

He started his career in Calgary where QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him after a career at Georgia State. He spent a year backing up Bo Levi Mitchell and then in his second year got a chance to start when Mitchell went down. He looked great in 7 starts and went 174/238 (73.1%) for 2,103 yards, with an 11:5 TD:INT ratio. With free agency looming he looked to be in for a big pay raise. He got it when Ottawa signed him with starter level money but unfortunately the 2020 season never happened and in a weird twist, Ottawa and Toronto would end up swapping QBs with poor Arbuckle taking a major pay cut to sign with Toronto. He started a few games for the Argos before Mcleod Bethel Thomson emerged as the teams bonafide starter.

After that he spent a couple of seasons with Edmonton and then Ottawa again, starting a few games in bad situations but never looking comfortable with those really bad teams. And from there he was basically on the qb scrap heap. Honestly if I were him I probably would have given up. He had been kicked to the curb so many times no one would blame him if his confidence was shot. But then his old QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him off the scrap heap early this year as a veteran presence to help tutor the young Cameron Dukes. Arbuckle did everything he was asked and earned his way into some playing time when Dukes faltered. This year his numbers were 65/100 (65%) for 799 yards with a 4:3 TD:INT ratio. Not stellar but easily the best he has put up since the 2019 season in Calgary.

Last week he came into a tough situation late in the 3rd quarter, tasked with preserving a lead against a very tough defense in their house. He did just enough, made the passes he had to and avoided big mistakes and got them the win.

I don't think it can be overstated how important the coaching staff and situation can be to a QBs success. This year Arbuckle has the best OL he's ever played behind, the best running game he's ever had to support him, and the coach who managed to coax the best year of his career out of him.

Maybe I'm wrong and he will falter badly. But I kinda hope he goes out and at least shows well. I want to believe in a feel good story here. He's gone from not having a contract to start the year to starting in the championship game. I have to admit, I'm rooting for the guy.
 
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Hulu said:
I'm gonna go with the under too. Two very good defenses matching up. Winnipeg has been an under team all year with a 4-14 o/u record. Toronto has been 12-6 o/u but now without their MOP level qb, they will be playing a different offensive philosophy. They will lean into the run game and ask Arbuckle just to not make any mistakes. The two times these teams met this year they scores were 16-14 (after OT) and 14-11. I'm not expecting this game to be quite that low scoring but something like 26-19 sounds about right.

1* TOR / WPG under 49.5 -110

Also, most books at 49.5 but pinnacle sitting at a flat 49 currently. When pinny is a flat half point off the market, you pay attention.
Click to expand...

As usual, my timing was impeccable! This number has jumped up to 51 so I am adding another half unit at that number. Full bet now as follows...

1*/.5* TOR / WPG under 49.5/51 -110/-109
 
I know I said no more player props but...

1* Prop Makai Polk under 73.5 rec yds -110

This is basically what his number was when Chad Kelly was starting. With Arbuckle under center Polk will get nowhere near the number of targets and he won't be the deep threat he has been.

Its interesting that they have Arbuckle at 260.5 pass yards and Collaros at 265.5 Not a lot of separation there.
 
Hulu said:
So I am still sitting on a half unit of Toronto to win at +660 and good money management theory says that given the situation, I should probably take Winnipeg -450 to hedge out.

But I'm gonna let it ride. No hedging on this one. Maybe if it was a life changing amount of money but we're talking about a nickel if I lose.

Obviously the major narrative right now is Arbuckle starting instead of Kelly. The book on Arbuckle is basically that he sucks and I've been as critical of him over the past few years as anyone. But I think if you look back at the arc of his career, there is some room for optimism.

He started his career in Calgary where QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him after a career at Georgia State. He spent a year backing up Bo Levi Mitchell and then in his second year got a chance to start when Mitchell went down. He looked great in 7 starts and went 174/238 (73.1%) for 2,103 yards, with an 11:5 TD:INT ratio. With free agency looming he looked to be in for a big pay raise. He got it when Ottawa signed him with starter level money but unfortunately the 2020 season never happened and in a weird twist, Ottawa and Toronto would end up swapping QBs with poor Arbuckle taking a major pay cut to sign with Toronto. He started a few games for the Argos before Mcleod Bethel Thomson emerged as the teams bonafide starter.

After that he spent a couple of seasons with Edmonton and then Ottawa again, starting a few games in bad situations but never looking comfortable with those really bad teams. And from there he was basically on the qb scrap heap. Honestly if I were him I probably would have given up. He had been kicked to the curb so many times no one would blame him if his confidence was shot. But then his old QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him off the scrap heap early this year as a veteran presence to help tutor the young Cameron Dukes. Arbuckle did everything he was asked and earned his way into some playing time when Dukes faltered. This year his numbers were 65/100 (65%) for 799 yards with a 4:3 TD:INT ratio. Not stellar but easily the best he has put up since the 2019 season in Calgary.

Last week he came into a tough situation late in the 3rd quarter, tasked with preserving a lead against a very tough defense in their house. He did just enough, made the passes he had to and avoided big mistakes and got them the win.

I don't think it can be overstated how important the coaching staff and situation can be to a QBs success. This year Arbuckle has the best OL he's ever played behind, the best running game he's ever had to support him, and the coach who managed to coax the best year of his career out of him.

Maybe I'm wrong and he will falter badly. But I kinda hope he goes out and at least shows well. I want to believe in a feel good story here. He's gone from not having a contract to start the year to starting in the championship game. I have to admit, I'm rooting for the guy.
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Ride or collide
 
Janarion Grant has 4 return TDs in 10 career playoff games.

Its worth remembering that Winnipeg dumped him at the beginning of the year and the Argos picked him up. I wonder if he's a little extra motivated to go against the team that deemed him expendable.
 
Useless information:

The Argos and Bombers have met 7 times in the Grey Cup and Toronto has won all 7. The first being a 4-3 win in 1937 to the most recent in 2022 with the boatmen prevailing 24-23. Toronto has won by a combined score of 144-48.

Toronto has the most Grey Cup wins ever but Winnipeg has been to the most Grey Cup games. Before 2022, the last time they met was in 1950. Somehow in a 9 team league, they managed not to meet for 72 fucking years!

Obv winnipeg revenge angle from that 1937 loss. Losing by a rouge, you don't get over that for a long time.
 
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The Argos hastily signed Bryan Scott to be the 3rd QB. Scott was with the team for the first half of the season so he knows the offence. The Argos cut him when Kelly came back from suspension.

More interesting is that after he was cut, he signed with Winnipeg and was their 3rd QB for a few weeks. You bet Toronto will be picking his brain this week.
 
Hulu said:
Its interesting that they have Arbuckle at 260.5 pass yards and Collaros at 265.5 Not a lot of separation there.
Click to expand...

Even more interesting is that Arbuckle is up to 269.5 now and Collaros is still at 266.5. Is it weird to have the QB of a 9pt dog with a higher pass yds total than the fav?
 
Playing out pretty much as expected so far. The stage doesn't look too big for Arbuckle. Both defences have played well.

If Hajrallahu is hurt, that could be a big deal. He hit that 45 yarder to end the half but man he looked to be in a lot of pain.
 
I hate when they do fireworks indoors. Halfway into the 3rd quarter and the place still looks like a jazz bar
 
Loose ball interference? Are you kidding me?? What a massive break for Toronto

Its the right call tho
 
Peg within 8 and there's still time for 3 drives if they play it right. +640 just too much for the situation.
 
Ok that changes things. Maybe not such a good idea to go deep with your first pass after having your throwing hand taped up
 
2024 Final Results...

Sides 30-18-1 +8.025*
Totals 5-10 -8.31*
Parlay/Tease 5-4 +1.62*
Live/2H 13-9 +2.755*
Props 2-5 -1.875*
Futures 3-1 +3.70*

Overall 58-47-2 +5.915*

A bit of a sub par season but I'm not going to complain since I came out of week 20 more than 4 units in the negative. I really tried to limit my plays this year and mostly succeeded with only 107 bets compared to 130 in a typical year.

Thanks to everyone who chimed in and hung around all year long. We'll be back to do it again in 2025.
 
The B.C. Lions have fired head coach and co-general manager Rick Campbell.
The Lions also named co-general manager Neil McEvoy vice-president of football operations and promoted assistant general manager Ryan Rigmaiden to general manager.
 
sjmartin57ca said:
The B.C. Lions have fired head coach and co-general manager Rick Campbell.
The Lions also named co-general manager Neil McEvoy vice-president of football operations and promoted assistant general manager Ryan Rigmaiden to general manager.
Click to expand...
Countdown to Campbell being hired by Edmonton 3...2...1...
 
The Calgary Stampeders acquired quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. from the B.C. Lions, the CFL club announced Tuesday.
The Stampeders also received the Lions' fourth-round selection (32nd overall) in the 2025 CFL draft and a third-round pick in 2026.
The Lions received Calgary's second- and fourth-round picks (ninth and 29th overall) in 2025 and its second-round pick in 2026.
 
sjmartin57ca said:
The Calgary Stampeders acquired quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. from the B.C. Lions, the CFL club announced Tuesday.
The Stampeders also received the Lions' fourth-round selection (32nd overall) in the 2025 CFL draft and a third-round pick in 2026.
The Lions received Calgary's second- and fourth-round picks (ninth and 29th overall) in 2025 and its second-round pick in 2026.
Click to expand...
What an insult to VAj. He was on an MOP pace last year before he got injured and Rourke came along. Surely BC could've got more than a handful of draft picks for him.
 
This is pretty cool for CFL history buffs. Highlights of the 1931 east semi-final just recently surfaced.

 
Two Grey Cup-winning quarterbacks are changing addresses.

The Edmonton Elks announced Tuesday they acquired Cody Fajardo from the Montreal Alouettes in exchange for the rights to McLeod Bethel-Thompson.
 
The Saskatchewan Roughriders acquired the rights to veteran quarterback Jake Maier from the Calgary Stampeders on Monday for a 2025 eighth-round draft pick.
The deal gives Saskatchewan a window to negotiate exclusively with Maier, who's slated to become a free agent Feb. 11.
 
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