CFL Syndicate 2024
- Thread starter Hulu
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Hulu
#3DownNation
Alright I talked myself into it...
1* Toronto +10.5 -110
I think the market has overreacted to Kelly being out. As I said previously, its not like Arbuckle is a slouch. He's a vet with plenty of starts under his belt and in his one start this season, he was pff's top ranked QB for the week. He's always been better coming off the bench than starting and he's thrown a few too many picks in his time but if he can limit those and play a safe game, he will do ok. He's not afraid to go downfield with the ball either so the defence can't just stack the box to stop the run. Not to mention, it wouldn't surprise me to see Dinwiddie implement a package to use Cameron Dukes and his scrambling ability to switch things up. And along those lines, the Argos can lean heavily on the run with their 3 headed backfield of Carey, McMahon and Adeboboye. Toronto's defence is solid and they have the best special teams returner in the league. I think this could be more of a game than the market thinks.
1* Toronto +10.5 -110
I think the market has overreacted to Kelly being out. As I said previously, its not like Arbuckle is a slouch. He's a vet with plenty of starts under his belt and in his one start this season, he was pff's top ranked QB for the week. He's always been better coming off the bench than starting and he's thrown a few too many picks in his time but if he can limit those and play a safe game, he will do ok. He's not afraid to go downfield with the ball either so the defence can't just stack the box to stop the run. Not to mention, it wouldn't surprise me to see Dinwiddie implement a package to use Cameron Dukes and his scrambling ability to switch things up. And along those lines, the Argos can lean heavily on the run with their 3 headed backfield of Carey, McMahon and Adeboboye. Toronto's defence is solid and they have the best special teams returner in the league. I think this could be more of a game than the market thinks.
On it
Hulu
#3DownNation
I'm gonna go with the under too. Two very good defenses matching up. Winnipeg has been an under team all year with a 4-14 o/u record. Toronto has been 12-6 o/u but now without their MOP level qb, they will be playing a different offensive philosophy. They will lean into the run game and ask Arbuckle just to not make any mistakes. The two times these teams met this year they scores were 16-14 (after OT) and 14-11. I'm not expecting this game to be quite that low scoring but something like 26-19 sounds about right.
1* TOR / WPG under 49.5 -110
Also, most books at 49.5 but pinnacle sitting at a flat 49 currently. When pinny is a flat half point off the market, you pay attention.
1* TOR / WPG under 49.5 -110
Also, most books at 49.5 but pinnacle sitting at a flat 49 currently. When pinny is a flat half point off the market, you pay attention.
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Hulu
#3DownNation
So I am still sitting on a half unit of Toronto to win at +660 and good money management theory says that given the situation, I should probably take Winnipeg -450 to hedge out.
But I'm gonna let it ride. No hedging on this one. Maybe if it was a life changing amount of money but we're talking about a nickel if I lose.
Obviously the major narrative right now is Arbuckle starting instead of Kelly. The book on Arbuckle is basically that he sucks and I've been as critical of him over the past few years as anyone. But I think if you look back at the arc of his career, there is some room for optimism.
He started his career in Calgary where QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him after a career at Georgia State. He spent a year backing up Bo Levi Mitchell and then in his second year got a chance to start when Mitchell went down. He looked great in 7 starts and went 174/238 (73.1%) for 2,103 yards, with an 11:5 TD:INT ratio. With free agency looming he looked to be in for a big pay raise. He got it when Ottawa signed him with starter level money but unfortunately the 2020 season never happened and in a weird twist, Ottawa and Toronto would end up swapping QBs with poor Arbuckle taking a major pay cut to sign with Toronto. He started a few games for the Argos before Mcleod Bethel Thomson emerged as the teams bonafide starter.
After that he spent a couple of seasons with Edmonton and then Ottawa again, starting a few games in bad situations but never looking comfortable with those really bad teams. And from there he was basically on the qb scrap heap. Honestly if I were him I probably would have given up. He had been kicked to the curb so many times no one would blame him if his confidence was shot. But then his old QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him off the scrap heap early this year as a veteran presence to help tutor the young Cameron Dukes. Arbuckle did everything he was asked and earned his way into some playing time when Dukes faltered. This year his numbers were 65/100 (65%) for 799 yards with a 4:3 TD:INT ratio. Not stellar but easily the best he has put up since the 2019 season in Calgary.
Last week he came into a tough situation late in the 3rd quarter, tasked with preserving a lead against a very tough defense in their house. He did just enough, made the passes he had to and avoided big mistakes and got them the win.
I don't think it can be overstated how important the coaching staff and situation can be to a QBs success. This year Arbuckle has the best OL he's ever played behind, the best running game he's ever had to support him, and the coach who managed to coax the best year of his career out of him.
Maybe I'm wrong and he will falter badly. But I kinda hope he goes out and at least shows well. I want to believe in a feel good story here. He's gone from not having a contract to start the year to starting in the championship game. I have to admit, I'm rooting for the guy.
But I'm gonna let it ride. No hedging on this one. Maybe if it was a life changing amount of money but we're talking about a nickel if I lose.
Obviously the major narrative right now is Arbuckle starting instead of Kelly. The book on Arbuckle is basically that he sucks and I've been as critical of him over the past few years as anyone. But I think if you look back at the arc of his career, there is some room for optimism.
He started his career in Calgary where QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him after a career at Georgia State. He spent a year backing up Bo Levi Mitchell and then in his second year got a chance to start when Mitchell went down. He looked great in 7 starts and went 174/238 (73.1%) for 2,103 yards, with an 11:5 TD:INT ratio. With free agency looming he looked to be in for a big pay raise. He got it when Ottawa signed him with starter level money but unfortunately the 2020 season never happened and in a weird twist, Ottawa and Toronto would end up swapping QBs with poor Arbuckle taking a major pay cut to sign with Toronto. He started a few games for the Argos before Mcleod Bethel Thomson emerged as the teams bonafide starter.
After that he spent a couple of seasons with Edmonton and then Ottawa again, starting a few games in bad situations but never looking comfortable with those really bad teams. And from there he was basically on the qb scrap heap. Honestly if I were him I probably would have given up. He had been kicked to the curb so many times no one would blame him if his confidence was shot. But then his old QB coach Ryan Dinwiddie signed him off the scrap heap early this year as a veteran presence to help tutor the young Cameron Dukes. Arbuckle did everything he was asked and earned his way into some playing time when Dukes faltered. This year his numbers were 65/100 (65%) for 799 yards with a 4:3 TD:INT ratio. Not stellar but easily the best he has put up since the 2019 season in Calgary.
Last week he came into a tough situation late in the 3rd quarter, tasked with preserving a lead against a very tough defense in their house. He did just enough, made the passes he had to and avoided big mistakes and got them the win.
I don't think it can be overstated how important the coaching staff and situation can be to a QBs success. This year Arbuckle has the best OL he's ever played behind, the best running game he's ever had to support him, and the coach who managed to coax the best year of his career out of him.
Maybe I'm wrong and he will falter badly. But I kinda hope he goes out and at least shows well. I want to believe in a feel good story here. He's gone from not having a contract to start the year to starting in the championship game. I have to admit, I'm rooting for the guy.
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