CFL Syndicate 2024

Calgary starting receiver Malik Henry carted off the field today with what appears to be a serious knee injujry.
 
Sunday night UFL game of the week for me. 5 units. I dont get to watch these games much but I follow enough to know what I am talking about.

Memphis has a horrible record and really havent looked great in their box scores, but reading between the line their strength of schedule is by far the hardest of and team and for sure the hardest for the bad teams. Their are 8 teams and before last week they played the 4 best teams week in and week out.

Houston is the 2nd worst team and Houston being a road chalk shows just how bad Memphis has been against the top opponents they have faced.

This is by far the best situation they have had all season. Its the last game of the season as the playoffs begin the following week. This is the part that is a little scary as motivation for both the teams could/will be low. I just feel Houston is favored because they covered more games this season but has lost just as many games both teams 1-8 SU.

Houston lost but covered last week and in fact has covered but lost their last 3 games.

Memphis' only win came in week 1 vs this same Houston team, for Memphis that was a road game and winner. The Houston win game vs Arlington the 3rd worst team in the league and in fact all 3 of these bad teams could all be tied for last. If I had to select the best of these bad teams I would give it to Memphis because their schedule was so tough.

I strongly believe in Memphis this week.

Kickoff is 7pm Eastern Sunday
 
We should have lines for the final week of preseason sometime today. I've got my eye on one play in particular. Stay tuned...
 
4-0 record so far this pre-season. Lets keep it rollin...

0.25* HAM / TOR under 48.5 -110

One more play possible but waiting for the lines to finish popping
 
Books wised up and started setting sides with some regard to how many starters the teams are playing. Not a lot of value to be found there but one parlay I like...

0.25* Parlay Calgary / BC Lions -179
 
There are a few things about in game totals that I’m not only going to track but also bet on.

High scoring first quarters. Usually there are only so many points scored In a game. Now of course the game could hit 70 or more points but most often a high scoring first quarter settles down.

Second to this is just the opposite. 0-0 opening and also 3-0 first quarter’s. I much prefer betting unders so this is more difficult for me to grasp but it’s something of note that should be tracked and taken a record of.

A lot of this depends on QB play and mistakes.

Also what is the history of the teams ? How many overs or unders in a row.

If a team that start hot are they an over team ? How about their opponent are they typically involved in over or unders. Looking for value after first quarters and half times.

Sure sides could play a role sometimes as well but totals I like more. These teams in history max total lines have been just above 60 points pre-game. Well those totals were years ago. I haven’t seen anything 60+ in a long time. To me that’s a ceiling and presents an opportunity. If it goes way over I suspect a line adjustment. The only exception to this was : Hamilton in 2015 when they went 13-5 overs, but the high totals went under 2-1. As the season moves along we can see the results.

Back testing looks decent but the exact lines can’t be found.

This would be of interest to getting a better line than all opening lines. Of course that doesn’t mean success.

Just a few examples:
3-33-07-1410-626-32
Second half over
0-176-103-00-109-37
 
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spottie2935 said:
Sunday night UFL game of the week for me. 5 units. I dont get to watch these games much but I follow enough to know what I am talking about.

Memphis has a horrible record and really havent looked great in their box scores, but reading between the line their strength of schedule is by far the hardest of and team and for sure the hardest for the bad teams. Their are 8 teams and before last week they played the 4 best teams week in and week out.

Houston is the 2nd worst team and Houston being a road chalk shows just how bad Memphis has been against the top opponents they have faced.

This is by far the best situation they have had all season. Its the last game of the season as the playoffs begin the following week. This is the part that is a little scary as motivation for both the teams could/will be low. I just feel Houston is favored because they covered more games this season but has lost just as many games both teams 1-8 SU.

Houston lost but covered last week and in fact has covered but lost their last 3 games.

Memphis' only win came in week 1 vs this same Houston team, for Memphis that was a road game and winner. The Houston win game vs Arlington the 3rd worst team in the league and in fact all 3 of these bad teams could all be tied for last. If I had to select the best of these bad teams I would give it to Memphis because their schedule was so tough.

I strongly believe in Memphis this week.

Kickoff is 7pm Eastern Sunday
Click to expand...
Nice, thanks for the write up!
 
Results through pre-season

Sides 3-0 +0.925*
Totals 2-0 +0.50*
Parlays 1-0 +0.25*

Overall 6-0 +1.675*

Perfect preseason! I am locked and loaded! Bring on Week 1!!!
 
week =1

I see no lines available for me as of yet but Fanduel has some available.

my likes so far:



Alouettes +6.5

D and week<7 and n:A and n:line<4

ATS:46-19 (70.8%)

week 1 data is is also strongly in favor of the Alouettes. week 1 data 9-2 ATS. Montreal qualifies here because next week with be away at the Elks so that line should be Montreal +4 or less and probably a slight favorite.

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Stamps +2.5

pretty simple.

HD and week=1 13-3 ATS in week 1

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-


Riders/ Elks under 46.5

AD and line <5 and week=1

12 unders
3 overs

These situations are strong under plays

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

BC -7.5
Argo's

Home dogs are strong but A 7.5 line throws me off. is BC this good. before i post this play ill wait to see you guys dissect this one.
 
Some thought on week 1 games...

This royally sucks. I get to watch as the lines get beat into shape while I can't get any money down until probably Thursday when legit books open. I hate fanduel with every fibre of my being.

MTL @ WPG
I'm sure their cup loss to Montreal is still fresh on some of the Bombers minds and they will bring some effort in this game. Winnipeg should win it but I really don't know how close it will be. I made the line 4.5

HAM@CAL
I've got the stamps as short fave in this one so seeing them get +2.5 at home is intriguing. Both these teams have a lot of question marks though so I'm not sure I want to get involved in this one.

SSK@EDM
This game should probably be more like pk so I would have taken SSK +3.5 for a big play if I could have. Its down to +2.5 now and I'll have to see what it is later in the week when I can bet. This feels like a game sask can steal. Edmonton made some major improvements in the offseason, most notably signing MBT but its going to take some time for them to get in sync. The jury is still out on their defence which was bad LY but had some major changes. Sask meanwhile comes into this with much more continuity from last year and with Trevor Harris back (they started 3-1 with him LY) they should be formidable this year.

BC@TOR
I made this one BC -4.5 and was hoping to get a good line on them. But it opened -7.5 and was quickly beaten back to 6.5 which is probably correct. Toronto probably still has the best top to bottom roster in the league but without Chad Kelly for 9 games they will struggle to go .500. Cam Dukes is going to start and he looked like a competent backup at best in the preseason. Nick Arbuckle and Bryan Scott didn't look any better. This team will struggle to score and BC has a very good defence still. At 47.5, this looks like an under play to me.
 
Hulu said:
Some thought on week 1 games...

This royally sucks. I get to watch as the lines get beat into shape while I can't get any money down until probably Thursday when legit books open. I hate fanduel with every fibre of my being.

MTL @ WPG
I'm sure their cup loss to Montreal is still fresh on some of the Bombers minds and they will bring some effort in this game. Winnipeg should win it but I really don't know how close it will be. I made the line 4.5

HAM@CAL
I've got the stamps as short fave in this one so seeing them get +2.5 at home is intriguing. Both these teams have a lot of question marks though so I'm not sure I want to get involved in this one.

SSK@EDM
This game should probably be more like pk so I would have taken SSK +3.5 for a big play if I could have. Its down to +2.5 now and I'll have to see what it is later in the week when I can bet. This feels like a game sask can steal. Edmonton made some major improvements in the offseason, most notably signing MBT but its going to take some time for them to get in sync. The jury is still out on their defence which was bad LY but had some major changes. Sask meanwhile comes into this with much more continuity from last year and with Trevor Harris back (they started 3-1 with him LY) they should be formidable this year.

BC@TOR
I made this one BC -4.5 and was hoping to get a good line on them. But it opened -7.5 and was quickly beaten back to 6.5 which is probably correct. Toronto probably still has the best top to bottom roster in the league but without Chad Kelly for 9 games they will struggle to go .500. Cam Dukes is going to start and he looked like a competent backup at best in the preseason. Nick Arbuckle and Bryan Scott didn't look any better. This team will struggle to score and BC has a very good defence still. At 47.5, this looks like an under play to me.
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I appreciate the post :)
 
spottie2935 said:
Sunday night UFL game of the week for me. 5 units. I dont get to watch these games much but I follow enough to know what I am talking about.

Memphis has a horrible record and really havent looked great in their box scores, but reading between the line their strength of schedule is by far the hardest of and team and for sure the hardest for the bad teams. Their are 8 teams and before last week they played the 4 best teams week in and week out.

Houston is the 2nd worst team and Houston being a road chalk shows just how bad Memphis has been against the top opponents they have faced.

This is by far the best situation they have had all season. Its the last game of the season as the playoffs begin the following week. This is the part that is a little scary as motivation for both the teams could/will be low. I just feel Houston is favored because they covered more games this season but has lost just as many games both teams 1-8 SU.

Houston lost but covered last week and in fact has covered but lost their last 3 games.

Memphis' only win came in week 1 vs this same Houston team, for Memphis that was a road game and winner. The Houston win game vs Arlington the 3rd worst team in the league and in fact all 3 of these bad teams could all be tied for last. If I had to select the best of these bad teams I would give it to Memphis because their schedule was so tough.

I strongly believe in Memphis this week.

Kickoff is 7pm Eastern Sunday
Click to expand...
5 unit winner. 🥇
 
Ok I finally have some lines open at a book with decent limits...

1* / .25* Saskatchewan +2.5 / ML -110 / +130

It kills me that I missed the 3.5 but thats going to be happening a lot this year unfortunately. Nevertheless I still think there is value on the riders as a dog in this matchup. This is mostly the same team that started off LY 3-1 until Trevor Harris got hurt and a combination of Mason Fine and Jake Dolegala led them to a 3-11 finish. I like what new HC Corey Mace is doing and the energy he has brought to this team. I would even call them a dark horse candidate to win the west this year. Edmonton should be much improved this season with the addition of a legit starting QB. But while MBT looked good in limited preseason action, I still have questions about him. He was out of the league in 2023 and is 35 this year. Not to mention, his best seasons were on an absolutely stacked Toronto team behind a great OL. Things won't be quite as easy in Edmonton. This team is definitely on the rise but I think its going to take some time to put all the pieces together. I trust Sask to be more ready here due to their greater year over year continuity.
 
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Interesting splits, I just looked at 4 outlets and neither MGM nor ESPN Bet have the game listed

Caesars has +2.5 -110 but no ML, DraftKings has +3.5 -110 and +140 ML

Is 3 a key number in CFL or is it not that big a deal?

Will chime in as I look at others later tonight. Are the Teapots actually improved by so much this season?
 
KJ said:
Interesting splits, I just looked at 4 outlets and neither MGM nor ESPN Bet have the game listed

Caesars has +2.5 -110 but no ML, DraftKings has +3.5 -110 and +140 ML

Is 3 a key number in CFL or is it not that big a deal?

Will chime in as I look at others later tonight. Are the Teapots actually improved by so much this season?
Click to expand...
Yes 3 is just as key in CFL as it is in the NFL.

It opened at 3.5 on FD but went to 2.5 within a few hours.
 
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Hulu said:
Yes 3 is just as key in CFL as it is in the NFL.

It opened at 3.5 on FD but went to 2.5 within a few hours.
Click to expand...
Interesting then that two large outlets would leave a key number open for middling
 
Since the Covid season, the low totals because of the lack of scoring so many of the games the totals have been very low. Over 100 games with totals under 47. That is a lot. Maybe some more scoring this season? I guess that would mean more overs ?
 

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As you can see from the attached photo the overs have been a success but even more so the last 2 seasons because in 2021 the unders were 25-20. That makes the overs the last 2 seasons when the total is less than 47

42-21 ATS
 

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spottie2935 said:
As you can see from the attached photo the overs have been a success but even more so the last 2 seasons because in 2021 the unders were 25-20. That makes the overs the last 2 seasons when the total is less than 47

42-21 ATS
Click to expand...

I think we see something like last year again where the unders were good for the first 2-3 weeks and then the game scores start going up. Defense is always ahead of the offences in the early going.
 
Certainly agree. I have the unders early lowering the totals and perception that’s no scoring again and then the players improve and overs on low totals occur. I post stuff to grasp things and play off regression.
 
@spottie2935 I'm jumping onboard the Alouettes with you because this line has gotten out of control.

1* Montreal +7.5 -108

Even though Winnipeg has some revenge here from their cup loss, I think that gets them the win only, not a blowout. Those following along know I like to bet teams with continuity this time of year and I think the ALs have the edge there. They lost Austin Mack and Lwal Uguak to the NFL but otherwise this is basically the same team that stepped off the field last November. Winnipeg has had some turnover and some injuries coming into the season. This game should stay within a TD.
 
Remember what’s important

Favorite in current week and dog the next week(fade the favorite in the current week)

Opposite as well dog this week and favorite next week take the dog this week. I will post ats stats on these soon
 
Hulu said:
Pretty ballsy of the NBA to schedule game 1 of the finals up against CFL opening day!

When the NBA gets boring, flip over and join us in the CFL in-game. Its on CBS Sports Network in the US
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I'll have a TV on both.

Already have a BBQ night set up to pregame for both events.
 
The rest are not so clear cut. In my opinion though I will have to look up Calgary. I don’t like that next weeks line is so lopsided. It’s an indication that this week will not go so well for them. If they did do well that would mean BC is going to excel very much this week
 
Calgary being a favorite this week, and a huge dog next is terrible for Calgary this week.
 

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I usually rank the offensive lines to start the season but why not let pff do it for us. I mostly agree with this although I'd put Toronto above Montreal, Winnipeg above hamilton and Ottawa above Calgary. But overall a good ranking.

www.pff.com

2024 CFL offensive line rankings: Montreal Alouettes come in at No. 1

The Montreal Alouettes enter the 2024 CFL season with the best offensive line in the league. They return their entire Grey Cup-winning offensive line and receive an added boost with Pier-Olivier Lestage returning from injury.
www.pff.com www.pff.com
 
Hulu, I hear ya, took Montreal +6.5 Even (Proline), & Montreal +7.5 -105(Pinny) yesterday. Now this morning Proline has Montreal +9.5 -140 crazy jumps last couple days think I will grab the +9.5 also, what u think.
 
sjmartin57ca said:
Hulu, I hear ya, took Montreal +6.5 Even (Proline), & Montreal +7.5 -105(Pinny) yesterday. Now this morning Proline has Montreal +9.5 -140 crazy jumps last couple days think I will grab the +9.5 also, what u think.
Click to expand...
Welcome aboard! Looks like we're all in alignment tonight. A genuine forum play!

I don't play at proline but I wouldn't play the +9.5. At -140 you're not getting a bargain and are basically just buying a couple of points and IMO the 8 and 9 are not worth the extra vig. Just my opinion.
 
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